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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring Offshore CO 2 Sequestration Using Marine CSEM Methods; Constraints Inferred from Field- and Laboratory-Based Gas Hydrate Studies

Offshore geological sequestration of CO 2 offers a viable approach for reducing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Strategies include injection of CO 2 into the deep-ocean or ocean-floor sediments, whereby depending on pressure–temperature conditions, CO 2 can be trapped physically, gravitationally, or converted to CO 2 hydrate. Energy-driven research continues to also advance CO 2 -for-CH 4 replacement strategies in the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), producing methane for natural gas needs while sequestering CO 2 . In all cases, safe storage of CO 2 requires reliable monitoring of the targeted CO 2 injection sites and the integrity of the repository over time, including possible leakage. Electromagnetic technologies used for oil and gas exploration, sensitive to electrical conductivity, have long been considered an optimal monitoring method, as CO 2 , similar to hydrocarbons, typically exhibits lower conductivity than the surrounding medium. We apply 3D controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) forward modeling code to simulate an evolving CO 2 reservoir in deep-ocean sediments, demonstrating sufficient sensitivity and resolution of CSEM data to detect reservoir changes even before sophisticated inversion of data. Laboratory measurements place further constraints on evaluating certain systems within the GHSZ; notably, CO 2 hydrate is measurably weaker than methane hydrate, and >1 order of magnitude more conductive, properties that may affect site selection, stability, and modeling considerations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Critical Experiment Design

Nuclear criticality experiments are used to validate nuclear cross section data used by simulation software. This is typically achieved by designing a critical system with a high sensitivity to a certain material’s cross section. Once the experiment has been carried out, a high fidelity model of the system is developed into a benchmark. When this benchmark model is simulated by a transport code, some of the difference between the experimental and computational effective neutron multiplication factor can be attributed to inaccurate nuclear data. Nuclear data evaluators then can make adjustments accordingly to improve cross section data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observable optimization for precision theory: machine learning energy correlators

The practice of collider physics typically involves the marginalization of multi-dimensional collider data to uni-dimensional observables relevant for some physics task. In many cases, such as classification or anomaly detection, the observable can be arbitrarily complicated, such as the output of a neural network. However, for precision measurements, the observable must correspond to something computable systematically beyond the level of current simulation tools. In this work, we demonstrate that precision-theory-compatible observable space exploration can be systematized by using neural simulation-based inference techniques from machine learning. We illustrate this approach by exploring the space of marginalizations of the energy 3-point correlator to optimize sensitivity to the top quark mass. We first learn the energy-weighted probability density from simulation, then search in the space of marginalizations for an optimal triangle shape. Although simulations and machine learning are used in the process of observable optimization, the output is an observable definition which can be then computed to high precision and compared directly to data without any memory of the computations which produced it. We find that the optimal marginalization is isosceles triangles on the sphere with a side ratio approximately $1 : 1 : \sqrt{2}$ (i.e. right triangles) within the set of marginalizations we consider.

Jets and Jet Substructure↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of grain structure after thermomechanical processing of U-10Mo alloy using sensitivity analysis and machine learning surrogate model

Abstract Hot rolling and annealing are critical intermediate steps for controlling microstructures and thickness variations when fabricating uranium alloyed with 10% molybdenum (U-10Mo), which is highly relevant to worldwide nuclear non-proliferation efforts. This work proposes a machine-learning surrogate model combined with sensitivity analysis to identify and predict U-10Mo microstructure development during thermomechanical processing. Over 200 simulations were collected using physics-based microstructure models covering a wide range of thermomechanical processing routes and initial alloy grain features. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we determined that an increase in rolling reduction percentage at each processing pass has the strongest effect in reducing the grain size. Multi-pass rolling and annealing can significantly improve recrystallization regardless of the reduction percentage. With a volume fraction below 2%, uranium carbide particles were found to have marginal effects on the average grain size and distribution. The proposed stratified stacking ensemble surrogate predicts the U-10Mo grain size with a mean square error four times smaller than a standard single deep neural network. At the same time, with a significant speedup (1000×) compared to the physics-based model, the machine learning surrogate shows good potential for U-10Mo fabrication process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advancing coupled fire-atmosphere research with HIGRAD/FIRETEC (w20_firetec) (CY 2021 Institutional Computing Annual Progress Report) [Slides]

LANL’s HIGRAD and FIRETEC models were used in a multi-scale simulation framework to investigate impacts of small-scale fuel heterogeneities on large-scale Pyro-Cb formation. Forest structural diversity is found to increase canopy fire spread, and thus risk of tree mortality in FIRETEC simulations. Structural diversity is associated with an increase in ladder fuels, which facilitate fire spread into the canopy. Low-intensity fire burning in marginal conditions is highly sensitive to small perturbation in atmospheric turbulence. These results highlight predictive limitations of individual fire simulations, and emphasize the need for ensemble simulations, especially for low-intensity, prescribed fire.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Super-X and conventional divertor configurations in MAST-U ohmic L-mode; a comparison facilitated by interpretative modelling

Measurements are presented, alongside corresponding interpretative SOLPS-ITER simulations, of the first MAST-U experiments comparing ohmically heated L-mode fuelling scans in Conventional divertor (CD) and Super-X divertor (SXD) configurations. In experiment, at comparable outer mid-plane separatrix electron density, $n_{e,\textrm{sep,OMP}}$, the maximum lower outer target heat load was found to be a factor 16 $\,\pm\,7$ lower in SXD compared to CD. In simulation, a factor 26.8 reduction was found (slightly higher than the experimental range), suggesting an additional reduction in SXD compared to the factor 9.3 expected from geometric considerations alone. According to the simulations, this additional reduction in the SXD is due to a net radial transport of the energy remaining downstream of the $T_e = 5$ eV location. This energy is carried out of the critical (highest heat load) flux tube by deuterium atoms, demonstrating the importance of a longer legged divertor which provides space for this to occur. Importantly, in both simulation and experiment, the SXD has minimal impact on the upstream n e and T e profiles. Spectral inferences of detachment front movement in SXD compare well between simulation and experiment. In regions of high magnetic field gradient, the parallel movement of the front towards the X-point becomes less sensitive to increasing $n_{e,\textrm{sep,OMP}}$, in qualitative agreement with simplified models and previous predictive simulations. Additional aspects, regarding the target ion flux rollover, upstream separatrix temperature and drift effects, are also presented and discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bidirectional LCC-LCC -Compensated 20 kW Wireless Power Transfer System for Medium-Duty Vehicle Charging

This paper presents the design and demonstration of a bidirectional 20 kW wireless charging system (WCS) with a significantly large airgap (11 inches) and asymmetrical input-output voltage levels. Analytical and experimental sensitivity analyses of the WCS resonant tank were conducted to verify the optimal operating region under the load and frequency variation. The inverter and rectifier were designed with switching components, the charging pads were designed with double-D (DD) coils, and the tuning networks were designed with an LCC-LCC tuning circuit. The grid and vehicle side tuning circuits were designed separately to achieve a ~1:2 gain for the asymmetrical input (800 V dc ) and output (350 V dc ) voltage. The proposed WCS was designed, simulated, and tested to verify the efficiency, power transfer capacity, and sensitivity under load variation. The experimental results show that, at 20-kW output power, the achieved grid to vehicle dc-dc efficiency was 96.1%, and vehicle to grid dc-dc efficiency was 96.2%. The proposed system is the largest-airgap bidirectional WCS with the highest efficiency and power density.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Distributed electric field sensing using fibre optics in borehole environments

In the past decade, rapid advances in distributed optical fibre sensing technologies have made it possible to record various geophysical data (e.g. strain, temperature and pressure) continuously in both time and space along the fibre, providing an unprecedented quantity and spatial density of data compared to traditional geophysical measurements as well as reducing data acquisition cost. To date, no distributed fibre-based electromagnetic field sensing system has been implemented although electromagnetic sensing could have a broad range of applications to geophysical imaging and monitoring in borehole environments. The goal of this paper is to provide a theoretical feasibility study regarding the design and use of an electromagnetic sensing optical fibre for geophysical applications. First, we present the sensitivity analysis of a ‘hypothetical’ optical fibre coated with polyvinylidene fluoride, a polymer that provides relatively high piezoelectric properties, yet unlike ceramics, is flexible. Next, using a two-dimensional electromagnetic modelling algorithm, we simulate the earth electric-field-to-fibre-strain transfer function and estimate the theoretical sensitivity of the optical fibre to electric fields. Given the state-of-the-art distributed acoustic sensing strain sensitivities in the picometres strain range, our numerical modelling analysis suggests that a perfectly coupled polyvinylidene fluoride–coated optical fibre can measure electric field values in the mV/m to V/m amplitude range. We then apply a cylindrically symmetric modelling algorithm to simulate numerical models demonstrating the applicability of such a fibre in an oilfield environment. Scenarios investigated employ an electric field source and suggest that the measurements can be used to distinguish the oil versus water ratio with a fibre mounted inside a producing steel cased oil well as well as distinguishing between brine and hydrocarbon filled reservoir zones with a fibre located outside of the casing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Stratocumulus Evolution Under Contrasting Temperature Advections in CESM2 Through a Lagrangian Framework

Abstract This study leveraged a Lagrangian framework to examine the evolution of stratocumulus clouds under cold and warm advections (CADV and WADV) in the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) against observations. We found that CESM2 simulates a too rapid decline in low‐cloud fraction (LCF) and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) under CADV conditions, while it better aligns closely with observed LCF under WADV conditions but overestimates the increase in CLWP. Employing an explainable machine learning approach, we found that too rapid decreases in LCF and CLWP under CADV conditions are related to overestimated drying effects induced by sea surface temperature, whereas the substantial increase in CLWP under WADV conditions is associated with the overestimated moistening effects due to free‐tropospheric moisture and surface winds. Our findings suggest that overestimated drying effects of sea surface temperature on cloud properties might be one of crucial causes for the high equilibrium climate sensitivity in CESM2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics

Abstract. Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resolved resonance region evaluations of n+ 206,207,208 Pb for fast spectrum applications

Resolved resonance region evaluations of the major isotopes of natural lead, 206 Pb, 207 Pb, 208 Pb, have been per formed to support the development of Generation IV reactors. In this study, validation of nuclear data for lead fast reactors was performed with simulations of shielding benchmarks, integral critical benchmarks, and quasi-differential scattering measurements. Sensitivity analyses of these systems showed that elastic scattering reactions above 100 keV were the dominant reactions driving system performance. The resolved resonance regions (RRRs) of the lead isotopes extend past 100 keV, making the RRR an ideal starting point to evaluate lead cross sections. Since the R-matrix requires knowledge of bound, distant, and observed resonances, it was necessary to evaluate from 10 -5 eV up to the respective limit of the RRR. The 208 Pb RRR evaluation was extended to 1.5 MeV in order to obtain resonance parameters used to calculate new elastic scattering angular distributions up to 1.5 MeV. Resonance parameter uncertainties and covariance were generated using the R-matrix code SAMMY. The new RRR parameters show a direct improvement to the scattering kernel below 1.5 MeV which in turn greatly improves fast critical experiments over ENDF/B-VIII.0.

206Pb↗
DOE OSTI2023

A numerical investigation of coal particle modeling for the inlet section of a pressurized oxy-combustion burner

Concerns over climate change have led to numerous efforts to develop low-carbon technologies, and pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in the power industry. Designing an effective burner for such technologies is vital for the development of these and other coal combustion technologies. Because of the high pressure, the volume fraction of coal particles at the fuel inlet of the pressurized oxy-combustor burner is close to or even higher than the maximum limit for commercial CFD codes (e.g., ANSYS FLUENT). At these high particle volume fractions, the interactions among particles, fluid flow and wall need to be re-evaluated. The present computational work is a first step in a systematic analysis of the influence of various parameters, like method of particle release, release location, and particle size, in a pilot-scale POC combustor, developed at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). In the POC process, pulverized coal is burned under elevated pressure in an O2-CO2 environment. Specifically, a 15-bar, 100 kWth, POC combustor is modeled employing Ansys FLUENT commercial sodtware using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized burner, velocity profiles in the near-wall region exhibit some anomalies. In order to investigate the influence of particle loading in the near-wall region, particle release location was investigated. The numerical simulations incorporate the coupling between the turbulent flow and the particles. A sensitivity investigation of particle release location found that by tuning the release location, the velocity profile can be consistent with the pure gas flow velocity profile. More importantly, the particle releasing location also affects flame stability. Particle size was also found to have a significant impact on particle trajectory, flame stability and temperature. Finally, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) were performed and compared with the results from two-dimensional RANS.

Li, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2022

A cycle-jump acceleration method for the crystal plasticity simulation of high cycle fatigue of the metallic microstructure

For metallic materials, high-cycle fatigue life is sensitive to underlying microstructure features including secondary phases, textures, grains morphology, etc. The traditional, data-based safe-life approaches for modeling fatigue don’t explicitly consider the microstructure and can’t guide study in microstructure modification for improved fatigue property. Crystal plasticity-based simulation provides increased model fidelity at the expense of immense computation time, making it inapplicable for high cycle fatigue. In this work, an acceleration method based on cycle-jump approach (Lesne and Savalle, 1989) was developed for microstructure-based high-cycle FE simulation using crystal plasticity constitutive-model. We report this method demonstrated high efficiency in benchmark tests of various conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Increased Latent Generations on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE

Analyses of cross section sensitivity data from systems with fissile material allow analysts to associate an importance for each material, nuclide, reaction, and neutron energy by simulating real world criticality scenarios. Although criticality safety validation efforts can be guided by the cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty data generated for a particular system, these calculations can often be computationally expensive and sometimes cumbersome without proper guidance. The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package has several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup and continuous energy (CE) capabilities. The release of SCALE 6.3 has three different CE methods for generating cross section sensitivity data: (1) the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) the IFP method with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Although the CLUTCH method has additional parameters for generating sensitivity data files relative to the IFP method, all three methods use latent generations, which are the generations between an event (i.e., fission) and the assessment of importance based on the asymptotic population of progeny neutrons. Increasing the number of latent generations in a calculation leads to increased discrimination of the sensitivity coefficients but at the cost of the increased uncertainty associated with those generated values. Analysts must balance the accuracy of the sensitivity calculations and its uncertainty with the associated computational cost involved in generating the values. This paper discusses the impact of adjusting the latent generation parameter for a range of sensitivity values and how these changes compare with the direct perturbation values obtained from a change of ±0.5% Δ k in both benchmark and safety application models. Two benchmarks from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the MPC-32 dual purpose canister for spent nuclear fuel are used for analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of the strength and toughness of concrete to the properties of the interfacial transition zone

We report Civil infrastructure is made primarily of concrete structures or components and therefore understanding durability and fracture behavior of concrete is of utmost importance. Concrete contains an interfacial transition zone (ITZ), a porous region surrounding the aggregates, that is often considered to be the weakest region in the concrete. The ITZ is poorly characterized and property estimates for the ITZ differ considerably. In this simulation study, representative concrete mesostructures are produced by packing coarse aggregates with realistic geometries into a mortar matrix. A meshless numerical method, peridynamics, is utilized to simulate the mechanical response including fracture under uniaxial compression and tension. The sensitivity of the stiffness and fracture toughness of the samples to the ITZ properties is computed, showing strong relationships between the ITZ properties and the effective modulus and effective yield strength of the concrete. These results provides insight into the influence of the poorly characterized ITZ on the stiffness and strength of concrete. This work showcases the applicability of peridynamics to concrete systems, matching experimental strength and modulus values. Additionally, relationships between the ITZ’s mechanical properties and the overall concrete strength and stiffness are presented to enable future design decisions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

First evaluation of meson and τ lepton spectra and search for heavy neutral leptons at ILC beam dump

A beam dump experiment can be seamlessly added to the proposed Inter- national Linear Collider (ILC) program because the high energy electron beam should be dumped after the collision point. The ILC beam dump experiment will provide an excellent opportunity to search for new long-lived particles. Since many of them can be produced by a rare decay of standard model particles, we evaluate spectra of the mesons and τ lepton at the decay based on the PHITS and PYTHIA8 simulations. As a motivated physics case, we study the projected sensitivity of heavy neutral leptons at the ILC beam dump experiment. The heavy neutral leptons can also be produced via deep inelastic scattering and Z boson decay at the ILC main detector, which we include in the projection. With the multi-track signal, the reach would be greatly extended in mass and coupling, even compared with the other proposed searches.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗