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Homomorphic Encryption for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence Applications

Third-party and expert analysis is a cost-effective solution for solving specialized problems or processing large datasets related to reactor structural health monitoring and nondestructive evaluation. However, when handling proprietary information, third-party and expert analysts pose a privacy risk. To address this challenge, Homomorphic Encryption (HE) permits arithmetic operations on encrypted data without exposing the underlying data. Implementations of Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms using HE greatly enhances the capabilities of third-party analysts while maintaining a low security risk. This paper details current success in applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Fully Connected Neural Networks (NN) using the Microsoft SEAL implementation of the popular CKKS Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) algorithm. The MNIST Handwritten Dataset is analyzed as a proof-of-concept demonstration of the implementations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Fiscal Year 2020 Annual Summary Report for the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites at the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

U.S. Department of Energy Standard DOE-STD-5002-2017, “Disposal Authorization Statement and Tank Closure Documentation,” requires preparation of an Annual Summary Report comparing low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities operations with the Disposal Authorization Statement (DAS) and its supporting technical documents including the performance assessment (PA) and the composite analysis (CA). The fiscal year (FY) 2020 Annual Summary Report for the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) was prepared by reviewing planned and discovered changes, waste receipts, monitoring results, research and development (R&D) results, and the status of DAS conditions and issues to assess the validity of the DASs, PAs, and CAs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evolution of the JPSS Ground Project Calibration and Validation System

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) next-generation operational Earth observation Program that acquires and distributes global environmental data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites. The JPSS Program plays a critical role to NOAAs mission to understand and predict changes in weather, climate, oceans, coasts, and space environments, which supports the Nation’s economy and protection of lives and property. The National Aerospace and Atmospheric Administration (NASA) is acquiring and implementing the JPSS, comprised of flight and ground systems on behalf of NOAA. The JPSS satellites are planned to fly in the afternoon orbit and will provide operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. To support the JPSS Calibration and Validation (CalVal) node Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Test, and Evaluation (GRAVITE) services facilitate: Algorithm Integration and Checkout, Algorithm and Product Operational Tuning, Instrument Calibration, Product Validation, Algorithm Investigation, and Data Quality Support and Monitoring. GRAVITE is a mature, deployed system that currently supports the SNPP Mission and has been in operations since SNPP launch. This paper discusses the major re-architecture for Block 2.0 that incorporates SNPP lessons learned, architecture of the system, and demonstrates how GRAVITE has evolved as a system with increased performance. It is now a robust, stable, reliable, maintainable, scalable, and secure system that supports development, test, and production strings, replaces proprietary and custom software, uses open source software, and is compliant with NASA and NOAA standards.

Data Processing↗

Evolution of the JPSS Ground Project Calibration and Validation System

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) next-generation operational Earth observation Program that acquires and distributes global environmental data from multiple polar-orbiting satellites. The JPSS Program plays a critical role to NOAA's mission to understand and predict changes in weather, climate, oceans, coasts, and space environments, which supports the Nation's economy and protection of lives and property. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is acquiring and implementing the JPSS, comprised of flight and ground systems, on behalf of NOAA. The JPSS satellites are planned to fly in the afternoon orbit and will provide operational continuity of satellite-based observations and products for NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. To support the JPSS Calibration and Validation (CalVal) node Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Test, and Evaluation (GRAVITE) services facilitate: Algorithm Integration and Checkout, Algorithm and Product Operational Tuning, Instrument Calibration, Product Validation, Algorithm Investigation, and Data Quality Support and Monitoring. GRAVITE is a mature, deployed system that currently supports the SNPP Mission and has been in operations since SNPP launch. This paper discusses the major re-architecture for Block 2.0 that incorporates SNPP lessons learned, architecture of the system, and demonstrates how GRAVITE has evolved as a system with increased performance. It is now a robust, stable, reliable, maintainable, scalable, and secure system that supports development, test, and production strings, replaces proprietary and custom software, uses open source software, and is compliant with NASA and NOAA standards.

Next-Generation↗

The Demonstration of Power over Ethernet (PoE) Technologies in Commercial and Institutional Buildings

Power over Ethernet (PoE) technologies are currently ubiquitous in offices in the form of phones, access points, and IP security cameras. They are systems that are familiar to and managed by on-site IT staff. As low voltage DC-power capabilities have increased with the advancement of IT network switches within offices, PoE devices are now being integrated across additional building systems, including lighting, computers, and HVAC controls. The connection of PoE devices to network switches offers the opportunity for energy monitoring and management to be performed through IT network management software. Data and results from technology validations of PoE equipment remain very limited. This lack of information hinders expansion of PoE as an energy management strategy as its benefits and challenges have been insufficiently quantified in real-world scenarios. This final report presents the findings of a DOE/State of Minnesota-funded project that demonstrated and assessed the energy and non-energy benefits of Power over Ethernet (PoE) technologies at six sites: two offices, three schools, and a hotel. The goals of the demonstrations were to: (1) assess the receptiveness of commercial and institutional markets to these new technologies, (2) demonstrate the feasibility of PoE technologies within standard design/construction practices and commercial codes, (3) assess the energy and cost savings opportunities of these technologies, (4) provide energy management opportunities where not typically available, and (5) formulate approaches to spur adoption of these technologies in the marketplace.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Packaged Capacitive Pressure Sensor System for Aircraft Engine Health Monitoring

This paper describes the development of a packaged silicon carbide (SiC) based MEMS pressure sensor system designed specifically for a conventional turbofan engine. The electronic circuit is based on a Clapp-type oscillator that incorporates a 6H-SiC MESFET, a SiCN MEMS capacitive pressure sensor, titanate MIM capacitors, wirewound inductors, and thick film resistors. The pressure sensor serves as the capacitor in the LC tank circuit, thereby linking pressure to the resonant frequency of the oscillator. The oscillator and DC bias circuitry were fabricated on an alumina substrate and secured inside a metal housing. The packaged sensing system reliably operates at 0 to 350 psi and 25 to 540C. The system has a pressure sensitivity of 6.8 x 10E-2 MHzpsi. The packaged system shows negligible difference in frequency response between 25 and 400C. The fully packaged sensor passed standard benchtop acceptance tests and was evaluated on a flight-worthy engine.

Harsh environment↗

Tribal Revegetation Project Final Project Report: 92-Acre Area, Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

Nuwu (Southern Paiute), Newe (Western Shoshone), and Nuumu (Owens Valley Paiute) are linguistically related, Numic-speaking peoples who are part of the broader Uto-Aztecan language group. Numic peoples view the land as a holistic, living, sentient being with feelings and purpose. The land is personified with human characteristics and it needs to be experienced to be understood through “learning by doing.” Numic peoples do not support ground disturbing activities within their ancestral lands, including activities tied to the storage of low-level radioactive waste or classified materials on the NNSS, which they view as culturally inappropriate. These deep-rooted ancestral connections are the impetus for reinforcing Numic responsibility for healing disturbed areas by integrating respect and patience with consistent Tribal interaction. Tribal Ecological Knowledge (TEK) is the science of describing Tribal approaches for understanding natural resources. Numic TEK is embedded in traditional teachings learned incrementally over time though experience and it evolves through lessons learned and responses to environmental changes over millennia. Therefore, TEK can broaden and enhance Western scientific knowledge associated with revegetation, especially in highly disturbed areas. The project blended TEK with Western scientific ecological methods to create a vegetative cover within test plots on the 92-Acre Area located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) located in Area 5 on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The vegetated test plots were systematically created for the Department of Energy (DOE) in tandem with the existing Federal Facilities Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) with the Nevada Department of Environmental Protection (NDEP). Three previous contractor-lead attempts at revegetation, one targeting full cover revegetation and two targeting test plot revegetation, did not achieve the anticipated results at this location. When presented to the 16 American Indian Tribal nations and affiliated groups with cultural and historical ties to the NNSS, the group appointed a Tribal Revegetation Committee (TRC) that included six expert Tribal knowledge holders to collaborate with an ethnoecologist/cultural anthropologist and two biologists. Project design, planning, seed and outplant selection, spiritual land preparation, and methodology were guided by the TRC and an ethnoecologist/cultural anthropologist from Portland State University (PSU) and biologists from Desert Research Institute (DRI). Using TEK, the TRC recommended a specific seed mixture that contained nine native plant species and three species of outplants. The revegetation effort included preparing and planting thirty 10 m × 10 m (32.8 ft × 32.8 ft) seeded plots, twelve of which also included outplants; and eight 10 m × 100 m (32.8 ft × 328 ft) plots that only received outplants, all atop a waste cell cover. The TRC and the project team creatively adapted TEK with Western scientific methods so that the planned revegetation efforts could occur within the safety and security parameters of the RWMC. Test plots were subjected to one of five soil treatments with varying combinations of straw or mulch applications, soil amendment, and/or outplant planting and one of two watering treatments (watered or unwatered). Planting was divided into two events: one in the fall season and another during the subsequent spring season based on TEK and a corresponding recommendation from the TRC. Monitoring and spiritual management was conducted by the TRC to evaluate plant progress on a monthly basis (in conjunction with the biologist and anthropologist) during each respective growing season for a period of three years after planting. This approach allowed Tribal members the opportunity to conduct traditional blessings and other culturally appropriate activities to restore balance to the land in accordance with Tribal protocols. Following TEK-guided methods, successful plant establishment from seed stock and outplants was observed in many plots. Overall, plots planted in the spring, as recommended by the TRC, showed higher rates of outplant survival and native seedling emergence than those planted in the fall. This finding is significant because it is contrary to the original guidance and previous approaches provided for planting in this region. The TRC believes the frequent co-occurrence of native seedlings near surviving outplants indicates an important symbiotic relationship understood by Tribal communities and overlooked by others. Watered outplants displayed much higher survivability than unwatered plants, even after watering was reduced after the plants were established. Soil amendments and mulch created higher densities of native plants from seed. Many native seedlings showed significant delays in germination, which is considered a normal adaptation to desert climates. Some native plants did not germinate until the third growing year, whereas others germinated during the first growing year, which demonstrates the complexity of the desert environment. Evidence of native insects, reptiles, mammals, and birds, as well as native plants that were not part of the planted species, were noted and considered culturally significant. Despite the presence of non-native plants, native outplants continued to thrive and the incidence of native plant germination from seed increased over time. These successful revegetation results where previous efforts were unsuccessful reinforce the importance of integrating regionally appropriate, TEK-guided methodology with Western science to achieve positive results and the necessity of integrating Tribal involvement in all stages of the revegetation effort. Expanded approaches coupled with Tribal knowledge and tools from Western science addressed a complex problem tied to revegetating atop a low-level radioactive waste cell. The level of Tribal participation serves as a progressive model for building collaborative relationships and addressing ecological challenges on the NNSS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing Plug Load Energy Use and Savings Potential in Army Buildings

The Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy and Environment) tasked the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to examine plug loads in typical Army buildings. Plug loads (also known as miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)) represent the electricity used by appliances and devices that are plugged in or hardwired and serve functions outside of a building’s core end uses. Common plug loads include computers, printers, copiers, networking devices, refrigerators, and vending machines. They also include personal electronic devices such as televisions, smart phones, tablets, and gaming systems. Examples of hardwired MELs include elevators, air compressors, and fire and security systems. The findings from this study confirm that significant energy is consumed within Army buildings by plug load devices and hardwired MEL equipment. A number of opportunities are identified for reducing unnecessary energy use that could save the Army over $5 million per year when broadly applied. Army regulations clearly spell out expectations for the purchase and operation of information technology equipment (computers, laptops, monitors, printers, and multi-function devices). However, the policies regarding the shutdown or activation of sleep and other lower power modes after 30 minutes of inactivity (15 minutes for monitors) do not appear to be consistently followed. There are many effective approaches and pathways for impacting change as it relates to improving awareness, implementing measures, and adjusting behaviors to identify and reduce plug load energy use. The Army should prioritize and consider deploying all of these to better understand and manage plug load equipment to save energy and enhance resilience across their facilities. Engaging the building occupants who use these devices daily via outreach and education should be a strong component of the strategy. The focus should be on reducing waste without sacrificing productivity or the benefits that many of these devices provide. Continued evaluation of plug loads beyond that performed here is important to gather lessons from additional building and equipment types, and to stay aware of evolving device technology and management options. This will highlight additional needs for policies, best practices, control technologies, and education of personnel to achieve real reductions in energy waste from plug load equipment. It is recommended that this study may serve as the foundation for a broader and sustained focus on plug loads and MELs, towards simultaneously enhancing the productivity, readiness, and resilience of the Army while reducing energy use and demand, and freeing up resources to better support the mission.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

OCTS and SeaWiFS Bio-Optical Algorithm and Product Validation and Intercomparison in US Coastal Waters

The successful launch of the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS) in August 1996, and the launch of Orbital Science Corporation's (OSC) Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) in August 1997 signaled the beginning of a new era for ocean color research and application. These data may be used to remotely evaluate 1) water quality, 2) transport of sediments and adhered pollutants, 3) primary production, upon which commercial shellfish and finfish populations depend for food, and 4) harmful algal blooms which pose a threat to public health and economies of affected areas. Several US government agencies have recently expressed interest in monitoring U.S. coastal waters using optical remote sensing. This renewed interest is broadly driven by 1) resource management concerns over the impact of coastward shifts in population and land use on the ecosystems of estuaries, wetlands, nearshore benthic environments and fisheries, 2) recognition of the need to understand short time scale global change due to urbanization of sensitive land-margin ecosystems, and 3) national security issues. Satellite ocean color sensors have the potential to furnish data at the appropriate time and space scales to evaluate and resolve these concerns and problems. In this draft technical memorandum, we outline our progress during the first year of our SIMBIOS project to evaluate ocean color bio-optical algorithms and products generated using OCTS and SeaWiFS data in coastal US waters.

Brown, Christopher W.↗

Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute Radiation Assessment Detector. Also, the University of Florida hybrid phantoms, which are flexible in morphometry and positioning, are being explored as alternatives to the current NASA computational phantoms.

Semones, E. J.↗

Ground System Architectures Workshop GMSEC SERVICES SUITE (GSS): an Agile Development Story

The GMSEC (Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center) Services Suite (GSS) is a collection of tools and software services along with a robust customizable web-based portal that enables the user to capture, monitor, report, and analyze system-wide GMSEC data. Given our plug-and-play architecture and the needs for rapid system development, we opted to follow the Scrum Agile Methodology for software development. Being one of the first few projects to implement the Agile methodology at NASA GSFC, in this presentation we will present our approaches, tools, successes, and challenges in implementing this methodology. The GMSEC architecture provides a scalable, extensible ground and flight system for existing and future missions. GMSEC comes with a robust Application Programming Interface (GMSEC API) and a core set of Java-based GMSEC components that facilitate the development of a GMSEC-based ground system. Over the past few years, we have seen an upbeat in the number of customers who are moving from a native desktop application environment to a web based environment particularly for data monitoring and analysis. We also see a need to provide separation of the business logic from the GUI display for our Java-based components and also to consolidate all the GUI displays into one interface. This combination of separation and consolidation brings immediate value to a GMSEC-based ground system through increased ease of data access via a uniform interface, built-in security measures, centralized configuration management, and ease of feature extensibility.

Software Development/Agile↗

2020 Annual Site Environmental Report for Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico

Sandia National Laboratories, hereinafter referred to as Sandia, is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration. This Annual Site Environmental Report was prepared in accordance with and as required by DOE O 231.1B, Admin Change 1, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting , and is approved for public release. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its management and operating contractor for Sandia are committed to safeguarding the environment, continually assessing sustainability practices, and ensuring the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data presented here. This report summarizes the environmental protection, restoration, and monitoring programs in place for Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM), during calendar year 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fully Distributed Acoustic and Magnetic Field Monitoring Via a Single Fiber Line for Optimized Production of Unconventional Resource Plays

This is the final technical report for the Virginia Tech Center for Photonics Technology (VT-CPT) research project entitled “Fully Distributed Acoustic and Magnetic Field Monitoring Via a Single Fiber Line for Optimized Production of Unconventional Resource Plays”. In the the four-year effort, VT-CPT collaborated with the Departments of Mathmatics at VT and Sentek Instrument, LLC (Sentek) to develop a fiber-optic sensing system capable of real-time simultaneous distributed measurement of multiple subsurface, drilling, and production parameters. The ultra-sensitive fiber optic distributed acoustic sensing technology, picoDAS, developed by Sentek was integrated with a novel multi-material optical sensing fiber fabricated by CPT-VT to obtain distributed acoustic and magnetic field measurements with ultrahigh sensitivity and high spatial resolution. The sensing technology successfully developed and demonstrated under this research program is truly unique has application beyond subsurface imaging to include carbon storage and electrical grid monitoring, as well as healthcare and nuclear fusion. The project, sponsored by the Advanced Technology Program, began in 2019 and had the original goal of developing the next generation of harsh environment sensing systems. Exhaustive theoretical modeling was performed to optimize the multi-material optical fiber design. VT developed the processing techniques employed to successfully fabricate single mode fibers with metal cladding wires. Sensing fibers with nickel and Metglas cladding wires were fully characterized, inscribed with sensors, and fully integrated with the picoDAS system. Laboratory scale testing was performed to demonstrate performance upon exposure to lateral and transverse magnetic fields. Preliminary field trials were performed for prototype magnetic and acoustic sensing systems upon near surface deployment at VT. The distributed acoustic and magnetic field sensing system was advanced from a (Technology Readiness Level) TRL=2 to a TRL=5 via laboratory scale system validation in relevant environments. The truly one-of-its kind distributed magnetic and acoustic sensing system is expected to find immediate applications that require subsurface monitoring, to include carbon storage site monitoring, and has the potential to be a distributive technology in healthcare and electric grid markets. The technologies developed by Virginia Tech’s Center for Photonics Technology will support the mission of the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to drive innovation and deliver solutions for an environmentally sustainable and prosperous energy future by ensuring affordable, abundant, and reliable energy that drives a robust economy and national security. Technical accomplishments during the program are summarized briefly here and described in detail in the remainder of the report.

02 PETROLEUM↗

LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update: Jamaica After Hurricane Melissa (V1)

During a natural disaster such as Hurricane Melissa, understanding where people are located is critical for situational awareness, operational planning and humanitarian support and consequence assessment. Traditional population datasets focus on mapping populations based on residential, or "business-as-usual" scenarios. However, natural disasters can create disruptions in daily routines of population in addition to the magnitude of the population displacement, depending on the type, duration, context, and location of the event. The Geospatial Science and Human Security Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) produced this latest LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update for Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa, a category 5 hurricane that made landfall on Jamaica on October 28 2025. This Rapid Population Update captures the immediate population displacement following the hurricane using a combination of open-source building damage assessment data from Microsoft, flood exposure data from the Global Flood Monitoring service, reported population displacement information, and humanitarian shelter locations from the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management and the underlying LandScan Mosaic Jamaica as a base population.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Volcanism in Eastern Africa

In 1891, the Virunga Mountains of Eastern Zaire were first acknowledged as volcanoes, and since then, the Virunga Mountain chain has demonstrated its potentially violent volcanic nature. The Virunga Mountains lie across the Eastern African Rift in an E-W direction located north of Lake Kivu. Mt. Nyamuragira and Mt. Nyiragongo present the most hazard of the eight mountains making up Virunga volcanic field, with the most recent activity during the 1970-90's. In 1977, after almost eighty years of moderate activity and periods of quiescence, Mt. Nyamuragira became highly active with lava flows that extruded from fissures on flanks circumscribing the volcano. The flows destroyed vast areas of vegetation and Zairian National Park areas, but no casualties were reported. Mt. Nyiragongo exhibited the same type volcanic activity, in association with regional tectonics that effected Mt. Nyamuragira, with variations of lava lake levels, lava fountains, and lava flows that resided in Lake Kivu. Mt. Nyiragongo, recently named a Decade volcano, presents both a direct and an indirect hazard to the inhabitants and properties located near the volcano. The Virunga volcanoes pose four major threats: volcanic eruptions, lava flows, toxic gas emission (CH4 and CO2), and earthquakes. Thus, the volcanoes of the Eastern African volcanic field emanate harm to the surrounding area by the forecast of volcanic eruptions. During the JSC Summer Fellowship program, we will acquire and collate remote sensing, photographic (Space Shuttle images), topographic and field data. In addition, maps of the extent and morphology(ies) of the features will be constructed using digital image information. The database generated will serve to create a Geographic Information System for easy access of information of the Eastem African volcanic field. The analysis of volcanism in Eastern Africa will permit a comparison for those areas from which we have field data. Results from this summer's work will permit further study and monitoring of the volcanic activity in the area. This is of concern due to the large numbers of refugees fleeing into Zaire where they are being positioned at the base of Mt. Nyiragongo. The refugees located at the base of the volcano are in direct hazard of suffocation by gas emission and destruction by lava flow. The results from this summer study will be used to secure future funding to enable continuation of this project.

Cauthen, Clay↗

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Mortality among workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1943–2017

During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed ‘The Gadget’ that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, 238Pu and 239Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses. Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose. There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗