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At least 631 records · Page 35

Drones for Decommissioning

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has responsibility for regulating the safe decommissioning of facilities and sites to meet the License Termination Rule in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 20, Standards for Protection Against Radiation, Subpart E “Radiological Criteria for License Termination.” Decommissioning is performed in accordance with 10 CFR Part 50, Domestic Licensing of Production and Utilization Facilities, as part of license termination (§50.82) and release of the facility or site for unrestricted use (§50.83). The guidance currently demonstrates the minimum requirements and necessary conditions for conducting radiological surveys by a person carrying a radiation detector(s). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) evaluated the use of an unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) to conduct radiological surveys that could be used in decommissioning to potentially reduce time, cost, and worker safety compared to current survey methods. The objective of this project was to evaluate the performance and limitations of a UAV to support a decommissioning radiological survey and compare it to a radiological survey conducted by a human. The primary research questions of interest evaluated were: 1. Did observed UAV paths differ from human paths and, if so, how much? 2. Did survey path deviation affect survey results and, if so, how? 3. Were radiological measurements from human and UAV surveys significantly different? To answer these research questions, an experimental field was set up at PNNL’s 3440 test track, and it included radiological sources commonly surveyed during decommissioning: cobalt-60 (Co-60), cesium-137 (Cs-137), and americium-241 (Am-241). Nine check sources (three each of Am-241, Cs-137, and Co-60) with activities ranging from 3.54 µCi to 39.34 µCi were set over a path that also included an area for measuring background radiation. An Aurelia X6 UAV coupled with a GPS and lidar unit was used to conduct the radiological surveys. UAV and human surveys were conducted using two different NaI(Tl) scintillation radiation detectors (2 in. × 2 in. Ludlum, Inc. and 2 in. × 0.04 in. Alpha Spectra, Inc.) at a travel velocity of approximately 0.2 m/s at a low (15–40 cm median altitude) or high (87–105 cm median altitude) survey altitude. Since the survey velocity and altitude parameters were atypical for normal UAV operations, testing was done prior to conducting the radiological surveys to establish airworthiness, evaluate the navigation system, and establish flight control. Human and UAV surveys were paired according to the detector type and altitude regime to compare the survey data. The results of this proof-of-concept research determined that the UAV and human surveys followed similar survey paths and detected the radiological sources with no significant statistical difference (in 33 out of 36 surveys). However, further research is needed prior to deploying UAVs for decommissioning surveys.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

First Principles Modeling of Cluster-Based Solid Electrolytes (Final Technical Report)

Given the trend of global warming and the urgent need to transition from fossil fuels to green energy, lithium-ion batteries continue to be an integral part of our lives. Design, development, and understanding of novel solid-state electrolyte materials play the key role for achieving next-generation all-solid-state batteries with high energy and great safety. The current modeling schemes to develop advanced solid electrolytes are focusing on materials in which the building blocks are individual atoms. Our theoretical approach is a paradigm shift in solid-state electrolyte design. Instead of atoms, we focus on clusters as the building blocks and model these solid electrolytes and their interfaces with electrodes, especially Li-metal anode, for their successful implementation in solid-state batteries. The advantage of using the cluster ions to replace elemental ions is that the size, composition, and shape of the former can be tailored to achieve higher ionic conductivity at room temperature, electrochemical stability, and charge transfer across solid-solid interfaces than conventional materials. Specifically, the project includes: (1) Developing cluster-based solid electrolytes, where the halogen components are replaced by cluster ions that mimic the chemistry of halogens but are characterized by additional degrees of freedom, including the size, shape, composition, and motional dynamics under excitation. (2) Providing a fundamental understanding of the ion conduction mechanism in the developed cluster-based solid electrolytes; (3) Modeling the interfacial properties (i.e., structural, chemical, and transport properties) between the cluster-based solid electrolytes and electrodes at the atomic level. For the cluster-based solid electrolytes incompatible with the Li-metal anode or cathode materials, potential candidates for interfacial coatings are identified and studied. (4) Providing a theoretical framework towards optimizing critical parameters of the solid-state electrolytes that guides experimentalists to attain desired cathode-electrode interface for cluster-based solid-state electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Estimation of sensor measurement errors in reactor coolant systems using multi-sensor fusion

A nuclear power plant is typically instrumented with a variety of sensors to continually monitor its variables, and their sensor’s measurements may be used to assess the plant state and initiate safety actions, if needed. Errors in sensor measurements, due to factors such as calibration drifts, critically affect such state assessments. Here, we address a problem of estimating sensor errors using physics-informed machine learning methods that use measurements collected under known plant conditions. For a given sensor, we propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to estimate its output assuming it is error-free and provides its difference from an actual measurement as an error estimate. We present the ensemble of trees and support vector machine fusers, and evaluate their performance using measurements collected over an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor. The plant variables are related to each other through the underlying physical laws under inertial constraints that place bounds on their derivatives, which analytically justify the applicability of machine learning methods for computing these fusers. Under twenty scenarios, we assess their sensor error estimates for pressure sensors of the heat exchanger of a reactor’s primary coolant system. Multiple types of errors are captured by both fusers under externally induced calibration drifts, blockages, minor leaks and air gaps in sensing lines, and electromagnetic interference; the root mean square error of the estimation of error is under 2.2% percent of the maximum measurement. We present generalization equations, in the framework of statistical learning theory, for these methods that characterize the confidence probability that the estimation error is bounded by a specified parameter in future test scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Design of a prototypical natural circulation water-based reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) for a pebble-bed generic FHR

A prototypical natural circulation water-based reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) for the UC Berkeley Mark-1 pebble-bed gFHR is designed based on one-dimensional thermal hydraulics modeling and optimization implemented in an in-house MATLAB code. The model employs a lumped core consisting of fuel pebble and graphite pebble regions, while the graphite reflector, vessel, and RCCS are represented as separate but energy-coupled regions. The model is derived based on steady state energy balance equations accounting for conductive heat transfer from the lumped core to the vessel and subsequent radiative heat transfer to the RCCS and convective heat transfer in the water. Further, mass flow rate is calculated based on momentum and thermal energy balance in the RCCS. Starting with ANL’s water NSTF as baseline, effects of RCCS design parameters such as size of the plate between pipes, pipe diameter, source-to-sink distance, surface emissivity, and pitch from the core are examined in an integral effects framework which accounts for subsequent variation of the mass flow rate, number of pipes, convection coefficient, mean region and surface temperatures, radiative view factors, and water outlet temperature. The importance of including a prototypical reactor design in RCCS design calculations is emphasized as the calculations show that temperature drops from the core to the RCCS fluid to transfer the heat tend to be the limitation not the heat removal capacity of the fluid. A closed-loop design is obtained with capability to safely remove up to 0.72% of the nominal reactor power at maximum estimated peak conditions and 0.40% at shutdown. The design is based on physics calculations and does not account for economic optimization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Porosity, swelling, and composition evolution in high-burnup monolithic U-Mo fuel

The microstructural progression of very high-burnup (>8 × 10 21 fissions/cm 3 ) monolithic uranium-molybdenum (U-10wt.%Mo) was analyzed, providing crucial insights into the behavior of post-recrystallized nuclear fuel, where scant data exists. Three focused ion beam cuboids sourced from a fuel plate with varying local burnups of 8.86 × 10 21 , 9.05 × 10 21 , and 9.36 × 10 21 fissions/cm 3 were characterized. The porosity and composition of the samples were evaluated to characterize the evolution of the microstructure as a function of fission density and different locations on the fuel plate, while simultaneously isolating plate-specific parameters such as Zr diffusion barrier thickness, hot-isostatic-pressing conditions, enrichment, and reactor conditions. The porosity was segmented, and the three-dimensional distribution of the porosity was extrapolated from the two-dimensional segmentation. The composition was assessed and quantified using energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy areal mapping. The porosity fraction increased as a function of the burnup from 27.77±0.51, 35.12±1.54, and 37.71±0.44 % for 8.86 × 10 21 , 9.05 × 10 21 , and 9.36 × 10 21 fissions/cm 3 , respectively. When compared to literature, the porosity volume fraction plateaus at burnups greater than 6 × 10 21 fissions/cm 3 , while the pore size grows linearly as a function of fission density. The number of large pores increased in number density as a function of burnup, while the smallest pores (<0.3 µm) increased up to 9.05 × 10 21 fissions/cm 3 , followed by a decrease at 9.36 × 10 21 fissions/cm 3 . The delamination and cracking in the fuel plate propagated through an interconnected porosity sublayer identified ∼5 µm from the diffusion barrier. The local swelling of the specimens was within or near the prediction bounds of the Robinson-Williams model for local swelling. The fission products, strontium, barium, cerium, and cesium, precipitated into the pores, while neodymium accumulated adjacent to the pores. Furthermore, these findings have direct implications for the development of fuel performance codes and the accurate documentation of the microstructure evolution in high burnup U-Mo, thus enhancing the safety and efficiency of nuclear fuel usage.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

FPV Video Adaptation for UAV Collision Avoidance

First person view (FPV) technology for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provides an immersive experience for pilots and enables various personal and commercial applications such as aerial photography, drone racing, search and rescue operations, agricultural surveillance, and structural inspection. While real time video streaming from a UAV and vision-based collision avoidance strategies have been studied in literature as separate topics, in this paper we tackle collision avoidance in FPV scenarios, taking into account network delays and real time video parameters. We present a theoretical model for obstacle collisions that considers the current communication channel conditions, the real time video parameters, and the UAV's position relative to the closest obstacle. A video adaptation algorithm is then designed, using this metric, to tune the FPV video resolution, number of re-transmission attempts, and the modulation scheme to maximize the probability of avoiding collisions. This algorithm also takes into account specific latency constraints of the application. This video algorithm was evaluated in various scenarios and its ability to respond to both distances to the obstacle as well as the communication channel conditions was demonstrated. It was found that, for the considered scenarios, the performance of the proposed adaptive algorithm was, on an average, 58.63% higher than the closest non-adaptive one in terms of maximizing the probability of avoiding collision. Such collision avoidance strategies could be used to make UAV FPV applications safer and more reliable.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

On the Necessity of Adopting Irradiation Protocols Recommended by the Compatibility in Irradiation Research Protocols Expert Roundtable (CIRPER) in Published Research and Why It Matters to Health Physicists

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) seeks to assist and support all partners in the fields of radiobiology, health physics, radiation physics, and related areas to transition from cesium-137 chloride-based technologies that can potentially be used in an act of terrorism to X-ray technologies. The absence of information on experimental procedures, equipment, and irradiation parameters directly and negatively impacts the reproducibility and translatability of a sizable portion of radiation biology studies. It also discourages researchers from adopting new tools that eliminate the risks of a radiological dispersal device.

Stern, Warren [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL↗

Select Proliferation Studies on TRISO-fueled, Heat-Pipe-cooled Microreactors

Nuclear microreactors carry the potential to open up new markets for the nuclear industry, as their expected cost competitiveness in non-traditional market segments (e.g., mines, military bases, extraterrestrial surfaces, and remote areas), and their inherent safety features make them deployable when other power sources are unavailable or difficult to exploit. For countries that have not traditionally participated in nuclear power, microreactors represent a clean energy solution [1]. However, their use, especially in non-weapons states, may entail challenges in terms of maintaining international nuclear safeguards [2]. Furthermore, the deployment locations where microreactors may prove most cost competitive would be difficult to access by state and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors [3]. In addition to the isolated nature of potential deployment sites, the low-power characteristic of microreactors suggests that numerous microreactors would need to be deployed to meet energy demands. That, coupled with the unique physics of many current microreactor designs, opens up a new area of research with respect to nonproliferation and safeguards concerns [2]. Whereas traditional facilities are inspected as isolated cases when looking for signs of diversion or misuse; microreactors may need to be assessed in the context of the entire fleet to which they belong. International safeguards necessitate timely detection of any significant quantities (SQs) of material that are being diverted (e.g., 1 SQ of special nuclear material diverted over the course of a 1-year period) [4]. For low-enriched uranium, the IAEA defines 1 SQ as corresponding to 75 kg of 235U. The purpose of the present paper is to explore the detectability threshold for material diversion in microreactors by relying on critical control drum angles, excess reactivity, and the reactor lifetime as the selected operational parameters. For this assessment, a heat-pipe-cooled microreactor was regarded as the base design. While the conclusions reached in this paper are not readily extendable to the design of actual microreactors, the analysis herein enables conclusions to be drawn regarding the level of accuracy needed for reference calculations in order to detect diversion scenarios by utilizing the selected operational parameters (i.e., mainly control drum angles, critical insertion angle, and the reactor lifetime).

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Critical Literature Review of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants and their Environmental Impact

Refrigeration and air conditioning currently account for ~20% of the total electricity consumption in buildings around the world. Over the next three decades as global temperatures are projected to increase, urbanization and economic growth will lead to an increased demand for refrigeration and cooling. Most commonly used refrigerants belong to the five following classes: (i) chlorofluorocarbons, (ii) hydrochlorofluorocarbons, (iii) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), (iv) hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), and (v) natural refrigerants. Over the past century, there have been shifts in which compounds were used for refrigeration to improve safety and durability, allow for ozone protection, and, most recently, to reduce global warming potential (GWP). Although technological advances have led to increased cooling capacity and safer refrigerants, emissions from refrigeration systems can affect the environment by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions or by depleting the ozone layer, depending on the gas emitted. The focus is increasingly on adopting compounds that are both efficient at cooling and effective for reducing emissions and other adverse environmental impacts. Because of policy and regulatory changes to avert ozone depletion and global climate change, much discussion has centered on the environmental impacts of next-generation refrigerants. Of particular interest are the fluorinated refrigerants, HFCs and HFOs, most of which are defined as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their breakdown products (especially trifluoroacetic acid). The US Environmental Protection Agency in 2021 drafted a Strategic Roadmap for PFAS, which has already resulted in an increase in investment in research on these compounds and has restricted the release of PFAS into the environment through the implementation of monitoring and reporting requirements. A critical evaluation of fluorinated refrigerants and their breakdown products with respect to persistence, biodegradation and toxicity, and global warming potential is needed to guide environmental regulations. This document aims to perform a critical review of the relevant scientific data on the most common refrigerants currently used, their degradation products, and their alternatives. Where available, estimates of precursor production quantities and existing environmental regulatory information are reviewed. Key data of interest for the evaluation include physicochemical properties, environmental fate parameters, ecological or human health toxicity/risk information, and GWP for compounds of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Critical Literature Review of Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Refrigerants and their Environmental Impact

Refrigeration and air conditioning currently account for ~20% of the total electricity consumption in buildings around the world. Over the next three decades as global temperatures are projected to increase, urbanization and economic growth will lead to an increased demand for refrigeration and cooling. Most commonly used refrigerants belong to the five following classes: (i) chlorofluorocarbons, (ii) hydrochlorofluorocarbons, (iii) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), (iv) hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), and (v) natural refrigerants. Over the past century, there have been shifts in which compounds were used for refrigeration to improve safety and durability, allow for ozone protection, and, most recently, to reduce global warming potential (GWP). Although technological advances have led to increased cooling capacity and safer refrigerants, emissions from refrigeration systems can affect the environment by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions or by depleting the ozone layer, depending on the gas emitted. The focus is increasingly on adopting compounds that are both efficient at cooling and effective for reducing emissions and other adverse environmental impacts. Because of policy and regulatory changes to avert ozone depletion and global climate change, much discussion has centered on the environmental impacts of next-generation refrigerants. Of particular interest are the fluorinated refrigerants, HFCs and HFOs, most of which are defined as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and their breakdown products (especially trifluoroacetic acid). The US Environmental Protection Agency in 2021 drafted a Strategic Roadmap for PFAS, which has already resulted in an increase in investment in research on these compounds and has restricted the release of PFAS into the environment through the implementation of monitoring and reporting requirements. A critical evaluation of fluorinated refrigerants and their breakdown products with respect to persistence, biodegradation and toxicity, and global warming potential is needed to guide environmental regulations. This document aims to perform a critical review of the relevant scientific data on the most common refrigerants currently used, their degradation products, and their alternatives. Where available, estimates of precursor production quantities and existing environmental regulatory information are reviewed. Key data of interest for the evaluation include physicochemical properties, environmental fate parameters, ecological or human health toxicity/risk information, and GWP for compounds of interest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methodology for physics-informed generation of synthetic neutron time-of-flight measurement data

Accurate neutron cross section data are a vital input to the simulation of nuclear systems for a wide range of applications from energy production to national security. The evaluation of experimental data is a key step in producing accurate cross sections. There is a widely recognized lack of reproducibility in the evaluation process due to its artisanal nature and therefore there is a call for improvement within the nuclear data community. This can be realized by automating/standardizing viable parts of the process, namely, parameter estimation by fitting theoretical models to experimental data. This automation effort could greatly benefit from a synthetic data resource. This work leverages problem-specific physics, Monte Carlo sampling, and a general methodology for data synthesis to generate unlimited, labelled experimental cross-section data that is statistically indistinguishable to the observed data. Heuristic and, where applicable, rigorous statistical comparisons to observed data support this claim. The demonstration is based on/limited to transmission measurements at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and energy-differential cross sections in the resolved resonance region (RRR). An open-source software is published alongside this article that executes the complete methodology to produce high-utility synthetic datasets. The goal of this work is to provide an approach and corresponding tool that will allow the evaluation community to begin exploring more data-driven, ML-based solutions to long-standing challenges in the field.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task E Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. DECOVALEX was initially motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. Later it was realized that these processes also play a critical role in other subsurface engineering activities, such as subsurface CO 2 storage, enhanced geothermal systems, and unconventional oil and gas production through hydraulic fracturing. Research teams from many countries (e.g., Canada, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, and the United States) various institutions have participated in the DECOVALEX Project over the years, providing a wide range of perspectives and solutions to these complex problems. These institutions represent radioactive waste management organizations, national research institutes, regulatory agencies, universities, as well as industry and consulting groups. This document is the final report of Task E which was proposed and coordinated by Andra, the National Radioactive Waste Management Agency in France, presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. The purpose of Task E of the DECOVALEX-2019 project is to investigate upscaling THM modelling from small-scale experiments (some cubic meters) to full-scale experiments (some ten cubic meters) and finally to the scale of the waste repository (cubic kilometers). To achieve this aim, the data of two in-situ heating experiments performed by Andra (the French National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) in the Meuse/Haute-Marne Underground Research Laboratory (MHM URL) have formed the basis for the understanding of the THM behavior of the COx at different scales. The first experiment provided the reference values of the THM parameters by means of a calibration exercise and they were used for a blind prediction and an interpretative analysis of the second one.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Design and Modeling of an Open-Source Baseline Floating Marine Turbine: Preprint

Marine energy resources such as river, tidal, and ocean currents can provide abundant, predictable, and clean power to both densely populated and remote communities globally. However, marine turbine technologies are still in an early stage of development. Recently, features have been added to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open-source wind turbine modeling tool OpenFAST to support the simulation of axial-flow marine turbines. These new features enable marine energy developers to predict the performance and safety of their turbines and allow researchers and students to advance the field through the exploration of novel designs. Developing and demonstrating the new capabilities of OpenFAST for marine turbines requires a baseline design that can be used as an example and test case. There are limited open-source turbine models suitable for this purpose. One existing baseline design is the Reference Model 1 (RM1), a fixed-bottom, dual-rotor marine turbine that was published in 2014 as part of the Department of Energy's Water Power Reference Model Project. To test and demonstrate OpenFAST's ability to model floating marine turbines, several modifications were made to the RM1. A floating platform and mooring system were designed to support a single RM1 rotor in a wide range of possible current and wave conditions. The system and model are intended to be a stable reference case and starting point for research efforts. The platform features all cylindrical members and familiar design elements from the offshore wind industry; the mooring system uses simple catenary chains. While not optimized for the lowest platform cost, the design is understandable and robust and can serve as a baseline for floating marine turbine technologies. This is a useful starting point for studies to explore new technologies or design methodologies. Additionally, the floating RM1 design enables cross-collaboration among industry, academia, and national lab researchers and serves as an educational platform for newcomers to marine energy. This short paper presents the specifications of the turbine, including its floating support structure and mooring system. The rationale behind the selection of certain design parameters is described. To enable adoption of this baseline case for research and educational efforts, an OpenFAST model of the full system has been made publicly available at https://github.com/OpenFAST/r-test/tree/main/glue-codes/openfast/MHK_RM1_Floating.

floating↗

An entropy-based debiasing approach to quantifying experimental coverage for novel applications of interest in the nuclear community

This manuscript proposes a novel information-theoretic approach to the quantification of experimental relevance, i.e., coverage, to achieve optimal data assimilation results for nuclear engineering applications. Specifically, this work posits the need for a new metric, called coverage (q C ) of an application’s quantity of interest, i.e., eigenvalue or power peaking for an advanced reactor concept, defined herein as the theoretically maximum achievable reduction in the quantity’s uncertainty given measurements from a pool of experiments in a manner that is independent of the data assimilation procedure employed. Currently, reduction in a quantity’s uncertainty is strongly biased by the underlying assumptions of the assimilation procedure to account for the under-determined nature of such problems and the similarity criterion employed to identify relevant experiments. To address this challenge, this work has developed a coverage metric, q C , based on mutual information, which establishes a new conceptual framework for assessing coverage, one that is independent of the model parameters and responses degree of variations in both the experimental and application domains, i.e., linear vs non-linear, and their prior uncertainty distributions, i.e., Gaussian vs. non-Gaussian. The q C is an entropic measure capable of addressing coverage for general nonlinear problems with non-Gaussian uncertainties and inclusive of the measurement uncertainties from multiple experiments. Numerical experiments from manufactured analytical problems as well as a set of benchmarks from the ICSBEP handbook are employed to demonstrate its theoretical and practical performance as compared to the c k -based experiment selection methodology, commonly employed in the neutronic community. The manuscript then employs other well-known adaptations to existing data assimilation methodologies for nonlinear and non-Gaussian problems capable of achieving the coverage posited by q C .

Bayesian data assimilation↗

Reduced Order Model to Predict Dispersion of Flammable Refrigerant into a Space

As the HVAC&R industry mobilizes to deploy more low-GWP refrigerants, relevant standards are being continually reviewed and updated. Those include the general safety standards ISO 5149 and ASHRAE 15, and the equipment standards IEC and UL. The standards systematically set the allowable maximum amount of refrigerant that should be used in different equipment types and different applications. To do so, they rely on predictions of how a leaked refrigerant mass will disperse into a space. Dispersion characteristics, such as total flammable volume and its residence time, determine the risk associated with the presence of the flammable refrigerant. The standards have included provisions for the use of flammable refrigerants for approximately two decades. They relied on limited analytical analyses and test cases in their development. Dispersion of a refrigerant into a space is complex. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are the most accurate in predicting a given problem. However, CFD is computationally expensive and requires specialized expertise and resources and is not suitable for use by standards development working group as prediction tool. This paper presents the development of a reduced order model (ROM) that predicts the key dispersion characteristics relevant to the dispersion of a leaked refrigerant into a space for any combination of input variables. The inputs are the refrigerant release height, the total released refrigerant mass and its release flow rate, the refrigerant molecular weight, the ventilation flow rate, the floor area and height of the space, recirculation air flow rate, and the tightness of the space. The outputs are histograms of volume fraction of the room in prescribed concentration bins and the total mass of the refrigerant in each bin normalized by the total refrigerant charge at 13 prescribed simulation time stamps between 1 and 900 seconds. The ROM is constructed from a set of CFD simulations with carefully chosen combinations of input parameters. The selection if done using a multidimensional sparse grid which is a generalization of the classical tensor approach but offers additional flexibility and thus can be more carefully tuned towards a specific model. The tuning is done to improve the accuracy, measured in the difference between the output values of the ROM and the CFD model, while minimizing the computational cost, measured in number of CFD simulations which is orders of magnitude more expensive than the processing the training data.

Edwards, Dean↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗