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Future Response of Coastal Wetlands to Environmental Stresses: Algorithm Comparison of Numerical Models

Coastal wetlands are a critical component of the earth system that strongly influence the global water and biogeochemical cycles. They are also likely important sentinel of climate change. Because eco-geomorphological processes have long been recognized to be important for coastal wetland survival under accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), many eco-geomorphology models have been developed to assess the impact of climate change on coastal wetlands. Although these models differ substantially in complexity and numerical methods, few studies have investigated the algorithm-level uncertainties in these models. In this study, we developed a multiple-algorithm model framework of coastal wetlands that represents coastal hydrodynamics (such as water level, significant wave height and bottom shear stress) and four eco-geomorphological processes: mineral accretion, organic matter accretion, storm surge erosion and landward migration. We validated the model at three representative coastal wetland sites (Venice Lagoon, Plum Island Estuary and Hunter Estuary) for hydrodynamics, mineral accretion and organic matter accretion. Through model-data comparison, we showed that the model can well capture the dynamics of hydrodynamical and eco-geomorphological conditions in the study sites. Importantly, analysis of the multiple-algorithm simulations suggests that differences in the process representation of mineral and organic matter accretion may contribute to the recent contradicting predictions of coastal wetland evolution under accelerated SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Measurements in Tropical Cyclones

The first measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) within and around tropical cyclones were made with the Desert Research Institute (DRI) CCN spectrometer (Hudson 1909) from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft throughout the 2001 season. Two penetrations of the closed eye of Hurricane Erin off the northeast US coast on Sept. 10 showed concentrations consistently well in excess of 1000 per cubic cm at approximately 1.4% supersaturation. Simultaneous condensation nuclei (CN--total particle) concentrations were consistently well in excess of 2000 per cubic cm throughout these closed eye penetrations. These within eye measurements at 4 km altitude for exceeded CCN and CN measurements just outside of the storm at similar altitudes--300 and 600 per cubic cm respectively. These CCN and CN concentrations within this closed eye were far above concentrations in maritime air masses; they are characteristic of continental or polluted air masses. Although there was a possibility that Saharan duct may have gotten into this storm these sub tenth micrometer particles are much too small and much too numerous to be dust. Such high concentrations may have originated from European air pollution, which may have been transported by similar airflow patterns to those that carry Saharan dust across the Atlantic. These high concentrations may be a manifestation of descending air that brings higher concentrations that are often characteristic of the upper troposphere (Clarke and Kapustin 2002). Later in the month measurements in Humberto showed highly variable CCN and CN concentrations that ranged from lots than 5 per cubic cm to more than 1000 per Cubic cm over km scale distances within and around the open eye of this tropical storm/hurricane. These very low concentrations suggest strong cloud scavenging.

Hudson, J. G.↗

Daytime Observations of Mid-Latitude Sporadic-E and QP Radar Echoes

Although sporadic-E layers and quasi-periodic (QP) radars are typically detected during nighttime conditions at mid-latitudes, they also may exist in the daytime lower ionosphere as well. We present observations of ionosonde observations of daytime sporadic-E layers gathered at the Wallops Flight Facility, Virginia, in the late morning to noon local times. The data reveal sporadic-E characteristics similar to nighttime observations including considerable variations in frequency and altitude. For one event, observed on 23 July 1999 near 14 U.T. (10 L.T.), we present coincident strong Wallops ionosonde sporadic-E observations and SOMHz backscatter radar observations of quasi-periodic echoes gathered with the University of Illinois radar situated at Ft. Macon, N.C., whose beam was perpendicular to the magnetic field in the lower E-region over Wallops. The radar data show daytime QP structuring that is very similar to the nighttime observations, suggesting a similar driving mechanism. A statistical survey of the daytime ionogram data at Wallops shows a preponderance of daytime sporadic-E events occurring during the local summer months, a seasonal dependence that is well-established for nighttime sporadic-E conditions in the northern hemisphere. No clear correlation is observed between the daytime sporadic- E events and magnetic storms, suggesting that the daytime sporadic-E events are not necessarily driven by the disturbance dynamo. Rather, we speculate that the same large wind shears that are believed to be the main engine for the nighttime sporadic-E and QP echoes, may also be at work during the daytime. The existence of enhanced plasma density layers during the daytime and their role in generating QP-echoes during the day remain open questions.

Pfaff, Robert↗

Spring Dust in Colorado Plateau: Transport Pathways and Interannual Variability Derived From Two Decades of MERRA‐2 Reanalysis

Spring dust storms in the U.S. Southwest significantly impact environmental and human systems, yet their climatological patterns and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using two decades of MERRA-2 reanalysis data and self-organizing map clustering, we identified four distinct dust transport pathways from surrounding and remote deserts for the top 10% of spring dust events impacting the Colorado Plateau: (a) intense southwesterly near-surface transport where eastward upward transport is blocked by topography, (b) substantial remote transport plus weaker surface emissions, (c) moderate southwesterly transport with stronger upper-level transport, and (d) rare northwesterly pattern linked to the Great Basin sources, which accounts for 38%, 14%, 37%, and 11% of total events, respectively. The frequency and intensity of these events strongly correlate with large-scale climate variability, with increased dust events during La Niña. Our results provide a robust framework for improving seasonal dust forecasts and understanding future dust dynamics under climate change.

aerosol transport↗

Microphysical Retrievals Over Stratiform Rain Using Measurements from an Airborne Dual-Wavelength Radar-Radiometer

The need to understand the complementarity of the radar and radiometer is important not only to the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) program but to a growing number of multi-instrumented airborne experiment that combine single or dual-frequency radars with multichannel radiometers. The method of analysis used in this study begins with the derivation of dual-wavelength radar equations for the estimation of a two-parameter drop size distribution (DSD). Defining a "storm model" as the set of parameters that characterize snow density, cloud water, water vapor, and features of the melting layer, then to each storm model there will usually correspond a set of range-profiled drop size distributions that are approximate solutions of the radar equations. To test these solutions, a radiative transfer model is used to compute the brightness temperatures for the radiometric frequencies of interest. A storm model or class of storm models is considered optimum if it provides the best reproduction of the radar and radiometer measurements. Tests of the method are made for stratiform rain using simulated storm models as well as measured airborne data. Preliminary results show that the best correspondence between the measured and estimated radar profiles usually can be obtained by using a moderate snow density (0.1-0.2 g/cu cm), the Maxwell-Garnett mixing formula for partially melted hydrometeors (water matrix with snow inclusions), and low to moderate values of the integrated cloud liquid water (less than 1 kg/sq m). The storm-model parameters that yield the best reproductions of the measured radar reflectivity factors also provide brightness temperatures at 10 GHz that agree well with the measurements. On the other hand, the correspondence between the measured and modeled values usually worsens in going to the higher frequency channels at 19 and 34 GHz. In searching for possible reasons for the discrepancies, It is found that changes in the DSD parameter Mu, the radar constants, or the path-integrated attenuation can affect the high frequency channels significantly. In particular, parameters that cause only modest increases in the median mass diameter of the snow, and which have a minor effect on the radar returns or the low frequency brightness temperature, can produce a strong cooling of the 34 GHz brightness temperature.

Meneghini, Robert↗

The Spectral Energy Distribution of the Seyfert Galaxy Ton S180

We present spectral results from a multi-satellite, broad-band campaign on the Narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy Ton S180 performed at the end of 1999. We discuss the spectral-energy distribution of the source, combining simultaneous Chandra, ASCA and EUVE data with contemporaneous FUSE, HST, and ground-based optical and infrared data. The resulting SED shows that most of the, energy is emitted in the 10 - 100 eV regime, which must be dominated by the primary energy source. No spectral turnover is evident in the UV regime. This, the strong soft X-ray emission, and the overall shape of the SED indicate that emission from the accretion disk peaks between 15 and 100 eV. High resolution FUSE spectra showing UV absorption due to OVI and the lack of detectable X-ray absorption in the Candra spectrum demonstrate the presence of a low column density of highly ionized gas along our line of sight.

Turner, T. J.↗

Downdrafts within High Plains cumulonimbi. I - General kinematic structure

Results from a comprehensive investigation in which observations from several case studies are integrated with three-dimensional cloud model results to examine the general kinematic structure of downdrafts associated with High Plains precipitating convection are presented. One particular downdraft type, the low-level precipitation-associated downdraft, is the focus of this paper. General airflow and trajectory patterns within low-level downdrafts are convergent from 0.8 km upwards to downdraft top, typically less than 5 km AGL. Observed mass flux profiles often increase rapidly with height as a result of strong buoyancy forcing below the melting level. Inflow to the low-level downdraft, although vertically continuous can be separated into two branches. The up-down branch originating within the planetary boundary layer initially rises up to 4 km and then descends within the main precipitation-associated downdraft. The midlevel branch, usually more pronounced during early downdraft stages, originates from above the PBL and transports low-valued theta sub e air to low levels. The depth of the low-level downdraft can be approximated by the environmental sounding transition level, defined as the vertical height interval separating conditionally unstable to neutral air below from roughly stable air above. The low-level downdraft is most frequently located along the upshear storm flank relative to the updraft, although a downshear downdraft may become common under higher environmental wind shear.

Knupp, Kevin R.↗

Abrupt regime shifts in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation over the last deglaciation

Here, we analyze modeling results of the North Atlantic atmospheric winter circulation from a transient climate simulation over the last 21,000 years. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the midlatitude jet stream assumes a strong, stable, and zonal disposition so long as the North American ice sheets remain in their continent-wide Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) configuration. However, when the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and Cordilleran ice sheet separate (~14,000 years ago), the jet stream abruptly changes to a tilted circulation regime, similar to modern. The proposed explanation is that the dominant stationary wave source in the North Atlantic sector changes from the LIS to the Cordilleran mountain range during the saddle collapse. As long as the LIS dominates, the circulation retains the zonal LGM state characterized by prevalent stationary wave reflection in the subtropical North Atlantic. When the Cordillera takes over, the circulation acquires its modern disposition with a weak and meridionally tilted jet stream and storm track.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interaction between a magnetized plasma flow and a strongly magnetized celestial body with an ionized atmosphere - Energetics of the magnetosphere

Findings on the interaction between a magnetized plasma flow and a strongly magnetized celestial body are described, emphasizing the energetics of the magnetosphere and some astrophysical implications. It is shown that the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere constitutes a dynamo whose power is modulated by the magnetized plasma flow. The varying with time of the flow speed, the magnetic field magnitude, and the latter's orientation are studied along with the reasons for the variation. The mode of dissipation of the generated power in the magnetosphere is investigated. As a preliminary, the basic solar wind conditions in the heliosphere are analyzed. It is shown how a flare-generated disturbance propagates in the heliosphere and how the dynamo power is modulated as the solar wind disturbance collides with the magnetosphere. The origin of geomagnetic storms and auroral phenomena in the dissipation of power in the magnetosphere is detailed.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

Aeolian Sand Transport with Collisional Suspension

Aeolian transport is an important mechanism for the transport of sand on Earth and on Mars. Dust and sand storms are common occurrences on Mars and windblown sand is responsible for many of the observed surface features, such as dune fields. A better understanding of Aeolian transport could also lead to improvements in pneumatic conveying of materials to be mined for life support on the surface of the Moon and Mars. The usual view of aeolian sand transport is that for mild winds, saltation is the dominant mechanism, with particles in the bed being dislodged by the impact of other saltating particles, but without in-flight collisions. As the wind becomes stronger, turbulent suspension keeps the particles in the air, allowing much longer trajectories, with the corresponding increase in transport rate. We show here that an important regime exists between these two extremes: for strong winds, but before turbulent suspension becomes dominant, there is a regime in which in-flight collisions dominate over turbulence as a suspension mechanism, yielding transport rates much higher than those for saltation. The theory presented is based on granular kinetic theory, and includes both turbulent suspension and particle-particle collisions. The wind strengths for which the calculated transport rates are relevant are beyond the published strengths of current wind tunnel experiments, so these theoretical results are an invitation to do experiments in the strong-wind regime. In order to make a connection between the regime of saltation and the regime of collisional suspension, it is necessary to better understand the interaction between the bed and the particles that collide with it. This interaction depends on the agitation of the particles of the bed. In mild winds, collisions with the bed are relatively infrequent and the local disturbance associated with a collision can relax before the next nearby collision. However, as the wind speed increases, collision become more frequent and the agitation need not decay completely. In the regime of collisional suspension, the particles near the surface of the bed are assumed to be in a state of constant agitation. We indicate the conditions at the bed corresponding to the limits of saltation and collisional suspension and outline experiments, simulations, and modeling that have been undertaken to bridge these limits.

Jenkins, James T.↗

Uranium Immobility in Tims Branch Wetland

The objective of this study was to address an item identified by the Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (LFRG) panel during their review of the Savannah River Site’s Composite Analysis. Their concern was that the Tims Branch wetland, which has elevated levels of uranium (U) originating from site operations between 1952 to 1985, may be a secondary source term, posing a human health risk. This report briefly describes three studies dealing with: 1) quantifying the mass of U remaining in the wetland, 2) quantifying the tendency of U to release from Tims Branch sediment, and 3) describing the distribution of U in aqueous and suspended solids in Tims Branch water during episodic storm events. The Tims Branch wetland has been extremely effective for the last 50 years at immobilizing U released to the system. A detailed map including 270,000 gamma spectra of the U distribution in the wetland indicated that 84% of the initial 43,500 kg U introduced in the system remain there after 50 years (Kaplan et al., 2020). The effectiveness of immobilizing U is supported by stream water measurements collected over the last several decades indicating that U concentrations have been consistently below drinking water regulatory limits (i.e., the EPA Maximum Contaminant Level, 30 pg/L (SRNS, 2019)). Furthermore, using contaminated Tims Branch sediments, in situ desorption Kd values (ratio of U sediment/U Water) were extremely high, ranging from 104to 106 L/kg, suggesting the U is strongly bound to these wetland sediments. Finally, a detailed study of Tims Branch stream water properties during episodic rain events indicated that essentially all the U transported in this stream was associated with suspended solids (Batson et al., 1996). Together these findings indicate that the Tims Branch wetland is extremely effective in its present state at immobilizing U and that the small masses of U released downstream will be predominantly in association with suspended solids.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

"Coulombic Viscosity" In Granular Materials: Planetary and Astrophysical Implications

The term "Coulombic viscosity" is introduced here to define an empirically observed phenomenon from experiments conducted in both microgravity, and in ground-based 1-g conditions. In the latter case, a sand attrition device was employed to test the longevity of aeolian materials by creating two intersecting grain-circulation paths or cells that would lead to most of the grain energy being expended on grain-to-grain collisions (simulating dune systems). In the areas in the device where gravitationally-driven grain-slurries recycled the sand, the slurries moved with a boundary-layer impeded motion down the chamber walls. Excessive electrostatic charging of the grains during these experiments was prevented by the use of an a.c. corona (created by a Tesla coil) through which the grains passed on every cycle. This created both positive and negative ions which neutralized the triboelectrically-generated grain charges. When the corona was switched on, the velocity of the wall-attached slurries increased by a factor of two as approximately determined by direct observation. What appeared to be a freely-flowing slurry of grains impeded only by intergranular mechanical friction, had obviously been significantly retarded in its motion by electrostatic forces between the grains; with the charging reduced, the grains were able to move past one another without a flow "viscosity" imposed by the Coulombic intergranular forces. A similar phenomenon was observed during microgravity experiments aboard Space Shuttle in USML-1 & USML-2 spacelabs where freely-suspended clouds of sand were being investigated for their potential to for-m aggregates. In this environment, the grains were also charged electrostatically (by natural processes prior to flight), but were free from the intervention of gravity in their interactions. The grains were dispersed into dense clouds by bursts of air turbulence and allowed to form aggregates as the ballistic and turbulent motions damped out. During this very brief (30-60 sec) damping period, motion of the grains was observed to be retarded by the electrostatic interactions. The fact that the grains almost instantly formed aggregates was evidence that their ballistic motions had been constrained and redirected by the dipole-dipole interactions that led to filamentary aggregate development. Undoubtedly, the "Coulombic viscosity" of the cloud assisted in damping grain motion so rapidly. The electrostatically-induced grain-cloud viscosity or drag exerted on grain motion, is a complex function of three major parameters: charge magnitude, charge sign, and mean intergranular distance. The above experiments illustrate one particular type of granular behavior. The discussion here will therefore be restricted to drag relationships: (a) between grains that are naturally charged triboelectrically and thus exhibit dipole-dipole attractions between one another even if there are slight net charges present (which can be overwhelmed by dipole coupling at short distances), and (b) between grains that are densely spaced where the intergranular distance varies between zero and some value (usually tens or hundreds of grain diameters) that permits each grain to detect the dipole moment of another grain -- the distance is not so great that other grains appears as neutral electrical "singularities. I. Aeolian transport: During motion of grains in a saltation cloud (on Earth, Mars, or Venus), triboelectric charging must occur as a result of multiple grain contacts, and by friction with the entraining air. A situation might develop that is similar to the one described above in the attrition device: grain motion becoming significantly retarded (reduced flux) as grains find it increasingly difficult to either separate from the surface, or to pass one another without Coulombic retarding forces. A "Coulombic drag" will exist at flux initiation and increase with time to work in direct opposition to the aerodynamic drag that drives the grain motion. It is predicted that this will lead to an increase with time of both the aerodynamic and bed-dilatancy thresholds (3). Because of Paschen discharge effects in the martian atmosphere, the electrostatic charging in a saltation cloud may be partially abated, but this will lead to greater grain mobility, more charging, and thus to a charge-discharge steady state mediated by mechanical interactions. II. Dry colluvial systems: Sand avalanches on dunes, dry debris flows, talus flows, avalanches, and pyroclastic surges are examples of gravity-driven, dense granular flows where rock/grain fragmentation and grain-to-grain interactions cause triboelectrification (sometimes augmented by other electrical charging processes), and where the grain densities of the systems are such that strong dipole-dipole interactions between grains might be expected to be present. Because it is expected that the Coulombic forces between grains will cause a sluggishness or enhanced granular-flow viscosity, the motion of a grain mass will be retarded or damped so that this will assist, ultimately, in terminating the flow. The greatest Coulombic viscosity will be created in the most highly charged systems, which will also be the most energetic. Thus, grain flows have some tendency to be self-limiting by internal energy partitioning; gravitational potential is converted to Coulombic potential, which manifests itself as a drag force between the grains. III. Volcanic eruption plumes and impact ejecta curtains: The violence of these systems leads to powerful electrical charging of particulates. Lightning storms emanating from volcanic plumes are a testimony to the levels of charging. As pyroclastic grains interact forcefully and frequently within eruption plumes, it is reasonable to predict that the internal turbulent motions of the plume will be significantly damped by the Coulombic viscosity exerted by grain charges. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗

Solar Cycle Variation and Multipoint Studies of ICME Properties

The goal of the Living With a Star program is to understand the Sun-Earth connection sufficiently well that we can solve problems critical to life and society. This can most effectively be done in the short term using observations from our past and on-going programs. Not only can this approach solve some of the pressing issues but also it can provide ideas for the deployment of future spacecraft in the LWS program. The proposed effort uses data from NEAR, SOHO, Wind, ACE and Pioneer Venus in quadrature, multipoint, and solar cycle studies to study the interplanetary coronal mass ejection and its role in the magnetic flux cycle of the Sun. ICMEs are most important to the LWS objectives because the solar wind conditions associated with these structures are the most geoeffective of any solar wind phenomena. Their ability to produce strong geomagnetic disturbances arises first because of their high speed. This high speed overtakes the ambient solar wind producing a bow shock wave similar to the terrestrial bow shock. In the new techniques we develop as part of this effort we exploit this feature of ICMEs. This shocked plasma has a greater velocity, higher density and stronger magnetic field than the ambient solar wind, conditions that can enhance geomagnetic activity. The driving ICME is a large magnetic structure expanding outward in the solar wind [Gosling, 19961. The ICMEs magnetic field is generally much higher than that in the ambient solar wind and the velocity is high. The twisted nature of the magnetic field in an ICME almost ensures that sometime during the ICME conditions favorable for geomagnetic storm initiation will occur.

Russell, C. T.↗

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Estimating tropical cyclone intensity by just using satellite image is a challenging problem. With successful application of the Dvorak technique for more than 30 years along with some modifications and improvements, it is still used worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity estimation. A number of semi-automated techniques have been derived using the original Dvorak technique. However, these techniques suffer from subjective bias as evident from the most recent estimations on October 10, 2017 at 1500 UTC for Tropical Storm Ophelia: The Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from T2.3/33 kt (Tropical Cyclone Number 2.3/33 knots) from UW-CIMSS (University of Wisconsin-Madison - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB (the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch) to T4.0/65 kt from SAB (NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch). In this particular case, two human experts at TAFB and SAB differed by 20 knots in their Dvorak analyses, and the automated version at the University of Wisconsin was 12 knots lower than either of them. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates about 10-20 percent uncertainty in its post analysis when only satellite based estimates are available. The success of the Dvorak technique proves that spatial patterns in infrared (IR) imagery strongly relate to tropical cyclone intensity. This study aims to utilize deep learning, the current state of the art in pattern recognition and image recognition, to address the need for an automated and objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. Deep learning is a multi-layer neural network consisting of several layers of simple computational units. It learns discriminative features without relying on a human expert to identify which features are important. Our study mainly focuses on convolutional neural network (CNN), a deep learning algorithm, to develop an objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. CNN is a supervised learning algorithm requiring a large number of training data. Since the archives of intensity data and tropical cyclone centric satellite images is openly available for use, the training data is easily created by combining the two. Results, case studies, prototypes, and advantages of this approach will be discussed.

tropical cyclone intensity↗

Investigating Potential Causes for the Prediction of Spurious Magnetopause Crossings at Geosynchronous Orbit in MHD Simulations

During intense geomagnetic storms, the magnetopause can move in as far as geosynchronous orbit, leaving the satellites in that orbit out in the magnetosheath. Spacecraft operators turn to numerical models to predict the response of the magnetopause to solar wind conditions, but the predictions of the models are not always accurate. This study investigates four storms with a magnetopause crossing by at least one GOES satellite, using four magnetohydrodynamic models at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center to simulate the events, and analyzes the results to investigate the reasons for errors in the predictions. Two main reasons can explain most of the erroneous predictions. First, the solar wind input to the simulations often contains features measured near the L1 point that did not eventually arrive at Earth; incorrect predictions during such periods are due to the solar wind input rather than to the models themselves. Second, while the models do well when the primary driver of magnetopause motion is a variation in the solar wind density, they tend to overpredict or underpredict the integrated Birkeland currents and their effects during times of strong negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz, leading to poorer prediction capability. Coupling the MHD codes to a ring current model, when such a coupling is available, generally will improve the predictions but will not always entirely correct them. More work is needed to fully characterize the response of each code under strong southward IMF conditions as it relates to prediction of magnetopause location.

magnetopause↗

Near-Cloud Atmospheric Ingredients for Deep Convection Initiation

A lack of routine environmental observations located near deepening cumulus congestus clouds limits verification of important theorized and simulated updraft–environment interaction processes occurring during deep convection initiation (CI). We analyze radiosonde profiles collected during several hundred CI events near a mountain range in central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign. Statistical analyses illustrate environmental conditions supporting radar-observed CI outcomes that span a spectrum of convective cell depths, widths, and durations, as well as events lacking precipitating convection. Tested environmental factors include a large variety of sounding-derived measurements of CAPE, CIN, moisture, terrain-relative winds, vertical shear, and lifted parcel properties, with supplemental model reanalysis of background larger-scale vertical motion. CAPE and CIN metrics do not consistently differentiate CI success from failure. Only a few environmental factors contain consistent monotonic relationships among the spectrum of cloud depths achieved during CI: (i) the depth and strength of background ascent, and (ii) the component of low-level flow oriented parallel to the ridgeline. These metrics suggest that the ability of the surrounding flow to lift parcels to their LFC and terrain-modified flow are consistently relevant processes for CI. Low- to midlevel relative humidity strongly discriminated between CI and non-CI events, likely reflecting entrainment-driven dilution processes. However, we could not confidently conclude that relative humidity similarly discriminated robust from marginal CI events. Circumstantial evidence was found linking cell width, an important cloud property governing the probability of CI, to LCL height, boundary layer depth, depth and magnitude of the CIN layer, and ambient wind shear.

Storm environments↗

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗

EPIC Calibration/Validation Experiment Field Campaign Report

A field exercise involving several different kinds of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and supporting instrumentation systems provided by DOE/ARM and NOAA/NSSL was conducted at the ARM SGP site in Lamont, Oklahoma on 29-30 October 2016. This campaign was part of a larger National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) UAS Program Office program awarded to the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). named Environmental Profiling and Initiation of Convection (EPIC). The EPIC Field Campaign (Test and Calibration/Validation) proposed to ARM was a test or “dry-run” for a follow-up campaign to be requested for spring/summer 2017. The EPIC project addresses NOAA’s objective to “evaluate options for UAS profiling of the lower atmosphere with applications for severe weather.” The project goal is to demonstrate that fixed-wing and rotary-wing small UAS have the combined potential to provide a unique observing system capable of providing detailed profiles of temperature, moisture, and winds within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) to help determine the potential for severe weather development. Specific project objectives are: 1) to develop small UAS capable of acquiring needed wind and thermodynamic profiles and transects of the ABL using one fixed-wing UAS operating in tandem with two different fixed rotary-wing UAS pairs; 2) adapt and test miniaturized, high-precision, and fast-response atmospheric sensors with high accuracy in strong winds characteristic of the pre-convective ABL in Oklahoma; 3) conduct targeted short-duration experiments at the ARM Southern Great Plains site in northern Oklahoma concurrently with a second site to be chosen in “real-time” from the Oklahoma Mesonet in coordination with the (National Weather Service (NWS)-Norman Forecast Office; and 4) gain valuable experience in pursuit of NOAA’s goals for determining the value of airborne, mobile observing systems for monitoring rapidly evolving high-impact severe weather conditions not observed with current operational systems. OU operated three UAS at the Lamont SGP site – the OU CopterSonde, the OU Iris, and the Meteomatics Meteodrone – under a blanket Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Certificate of Authorization (COA) allowing flights up to 400 feet above ground level (AGL). The mission for the rotary-wing UAS involved four aircraft, three from the ARM Lamont site and one from an Oklahoma Mesonet site located at Medford, involving a vertical ascent to an altitude of 400 ft (130 m) AGL at ~ 30 minute intervals for ~ 5 hours duration on each of the two experiment days. This operation was conducted in close coordination with NSSL-launched rawinsonde balloons at the two sites, and operation of a fixed-wing UAS from the University of Colorado called the TTwistor that flew mission flight legs between the Lamont site and Medford. The NSSL operation at Medford (outside of ARM) also involved use of their Collaborative Lower Atmosphere Mobile Profiling System (CLAMPS) ground-based remote-sensing system for measuring atmospheric profiles of temperature, moisture, and winds with atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI), microwave radiometer, and Doppler wind lidar systems. The ARM Facility supported the project by providing access to their instrumented tower data at Lamont (at three levels), as well as AERI and Doppler wind lidar data obtained from systems quite similar to those used by CLAMPS. These non-UAS data from both ARM and NSSL provided the observations used to validate the experimental UAS observations.

atmospheric boundary layer↗