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At least 631 records · Page 35

Using simulation to evaluate warhead monitoring system effectiveness

There is a need to develop and demonstrate technical approaches for verifying potential future agreements to limit and reduce total warhead stockpiles. To facilitate this aim, warhead monitoring systems employ both concepts of operations (CONOPS) and technologies. A systems evaluation approach can be used to assess the relative performance of CONOPS and technologies in their ability to achieve monitoring system objectives which include: 1) confidence that a treaty accountable item (TAI) initialized by the monitoring system is as declared; 2) confidence that there is no undetected diversion from the monitoring system; and 3) confidence that a TAI is dismantled as declared. Although there are many quantitative methods that can be used to assess system performance for the above objectives, this paper focuses on a simulation perspective primarily for the ability to support analysis of the probabilities that are used to define operating characteristics of CONOPS and technologies. This paper describes a discrete event simulation (DES) model, comprised of three major sub-models: including TAI lifecycle flow, monitoring activities, and declaration behavior. The DES model seeks to capture all processes and decision points associated with the progressions of virtual TAIs, with notional characteristics, through the monitoring system from initialization through dismantlement. The simulation updates TAI progression (i.e., whether the generated test objects are accepted and rejected at the appropriate points) all the way through dismantlement. Evaluation of TAI lifecycles primarily serves to assess how the order, frequency, and combination of functions in the CONOPS affect system performance as a whole. It is important, however, to note that discrete event simulation is also capable (at a basic level) of addressing vulnerabilities in the CONOPS and interdependencies between individual functions as well. This approach is beneficial because it does not rely on complex mathematical models, but instead attempts to recreate the real world system as a decision and event driven simulation. Finally, because the simulation addresses warhead confirmation, chain of custody, and warhead dismantlement in a modular fashion, a discrete-event model could be easily adapted to multiple CONOPS for the exploration of a large number of “what if” scenarios.

Perkins, Casey J.↗

The Next Frontier in Computing

Exascale computing refers to computing systems capable of at least one exaflop or a billion calculations per second (1018). That is 50 times faster than the most powerful supercomputers being used today and represents a thousand-fold increase over the first petascale computer that came into operation in 2008. How we use these large-scale simulation resources is the key to solving some of today’s most pressing problems, including clean energy production, nuclear reactor lifetime extension and nuclear stockpile aging.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Long History of Supercomputing

As part of its national security science mission, Los Alamos National Laboratory and HPC have a long, entwined history dating back to the earliest days of computing. From bringing the first problem to the nation’s first computer to building the first machine to break the petaflop barrier, Los Alamos holds many “firsts” in HPC breakthroughs. Today, supercomputers are integral to stockpile stewardship and the Laboratory continues to work with vendors in developing the future of HPC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

What Lies Beneath Can Be Imaged

The Hanford Site was quickly established to help end World War II, making history for producing the plutonium used in the world’s first nuclear weapons. Throughout the Cold War years, Hanford employees produced plutonium for most of the more than 60,000 weapons in the U.S. nuclear arsenal stockpile. Today, the once highly active nuclear reactors are shut down. And the mission at Hanford turned full-circle as scientists, engineers and specialists work to clean up our nation’s most contaminated nuclear site. PNNL Computational Geophysicist Tim Johnson is helping decision-makers understand the complexity and breadth of the contamination in soils at Hanford. Tim and others are applying remote, high-resolution geophysical imaging to determine the extent of contamination in the soil below the surface and understand the processes controlling its movement. They also provide real-time imaging of remediation processes that are working to limit the movement of contaminants below the surface and toward water resources. Geophysical imaging simply means that PNNL scientists are combining the techniques of geology, physics, mathematics and chemistry with supercomputer modeling to create three-dimensional images of the waste and its movement. These real-time, remote images are essential in reducing the uncertainty associated with cleanup costs and remediation technologies.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Breaking the Supermassive Black Hole Speed Limit

A new computer simulation helps explain the existence of puzzling supermassive black holes observed in the early universe. The simulation is based on a computer code used to understand the coupling of radiation and certain materials. “Supermassive black holes have a speed limit that governs how fast and how large they can grow,” said Joseph Smidt of the Theoretical Design Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory. “The relatively recent discovery of supermassive black holes in the early development of the universe raised a fundamental question, how did they get so big so fast?” Using computer codes developed at Los Alamos for modeling the interaction of matter and radiation related to the Lab’s stockpile stewardship mission, Smidt and colleagues created a simulation of collapsing stars that resulted in supermassive black holes forming in less time than expected, cosmologically speaking, in the first billion years of the universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Joint the Center for Applied Scientific Computing

The Center for Applied Scientific Computing serves as Livermore Lab’s window to the broader computer science, computational physics, applied mathematics, and data science research communities. In collaboration with academic, industrial, and other government laboratory partners, we conduct world-class scientific research and development on problems critical to national security. CASC applies the power of high-performance computing and the efficiency of modern computational methods to the realms of stockpile stewardship, cyber and energy security, and knowledge discovery for intelligence applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Precision circuit calculations in hostile environments.

Sensing and calculating electronic systems with stringent accuracy requirements use internal standard voltages for references. Conceptually, this is related to using some unit measurement for counting any quantity. The high precision electronic components used in systems in the nation’s stockpile also make use of these standard voltages. The need for stable voltage references has been long-standing in the overall electronics industry. For many applications, the most pressing need is for stability of a reference voltage as the circuit temperature varies. Typical circuit components have temperature coefficients for their operational characteristics that are given in some delta per degree centigrade and these coefficients can be either positive or negative. Thus, it is natural to consider building a circuit out of components that have complementary temperature coefficients so that the operating characteristics of the circuit have a net zero temperature coefficient. This is the fundamental basis of precision voltage reference (PVR) circuit operation and it is straightforward to extend this type of stabilization to reduce shifts caused by hostile environment radiation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Measuring opacities for high energy density matter

How does energy propagate from the solar core to the surface of the sun, where it emerges to warm the Earth? How old are the stellar systems that host the numerous exoplanets that have now been discovered outside our solar system? How does radiation penetrate and heat an inertial fusion capsule? The answers to these seemingly disparate questions hinge on knowledge of the fundamental material property that controls the absorption of radiation: opacity. Opacity plays a critical role for many high energy density (HED) systems and is highly important for the NNSA stewardship mission. In addition, laboratory astrophysics research serves as a conduit for establishing collaborations between the NNSA laboratories, between the NNSA laboratories and universities, and between the NNSA laboratories and our international partners. Exposure to open peer review sharpens the research capabilities and interactions of NNSA scientists with students and professors as a natural path for recruiting the next generation of stockpile stewards.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Evolution of HFIR Cermet PU-238 Production Targets

The production of 238Pu as a heat generation source for radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) was ongoing at the Savannah River Site (SRS) from the 1960s-1990s. Stockpiles of this valuable radioisotope have decreased over the last few decades and it is clear that more material must be produced to support future deep space exploration missions. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has initiated efforts to establish a reliable production facility to replenish this resource. Like the SRS, ORNL uses a mechanically pressed ceramic/metallic (cermet) pellet that blends 237Np (in the form of ceramic NpO2 powder) and aluminum powder. A “Generation I” target containing 52 such pellets has been qualified for irradiation at the High Flux Isotope Reactor at the ORNL reservation. The next “Generation II” target design incorporates lessons learned from the initial qualification exercise to develop a further optimized irradiation vehicle design. This paper discussed the evolution of the cermet targets at ORNL and provides details on the Generation II design.

Howard, Richard↗

What Goes into a Shot at the National Ignition Facility?

Take a peek inside the National Ignition Facility, the world’s largest and most energetic laser, to see how we develop and execute some of the most complex experiments conducted anywhere. This one-of-a-kind facility was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration to keep the nation’s nuclear stockpile safe, secure and effective. We also use the extreme conditions produced by NIF to study the science behind fusion ignition and to explore astrophysical phenomena such as supernovae, black holes and planetary interiors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ADVANCED TEST REACTOR (ATR) CONVERSION TO LOW ENRICHED URANIUM (LEU) FUEL

The United States Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Material Management and Minimization (MMM) is working to convert research reactors globally from highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. MMM and its predecessor programs have converted or verified the shutdown of 88 HEU research reactors and isotope production facilities, using LEU fuel developed in the 1980s. However, there is a small set of high performance research reactors which require a new high density LEU fuel for conversion, including six U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs), which include the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and the ATR Critical (ATRC) Facility at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) near Idaho Falls, ID; University of Missouri Research Reactor (MURR) at Columbia, MO; Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reactor (MITR) at MIT in Cambridge, MA; High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) near Oak Ridge, TN; and National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Center for Neutron Research (NCNR) in Gaithersburg, MA. These reactors will share the same uranium-molybdenum (U-Mo) fuel plate design. The U-Mo fuel meat foil will have a zirconium (Zr) diffusion barrier with aluminum cladding. Three different application methods for the Zr diffusion barrier layer are being pursued – co-rolled, electroplating and plasma spraying. Fabrication of the higher density LEU U-Mo fuel has presented several challenges. Because the U-Mo fuel fabrication process uses the existing stockpile of 93% highly enriched uranium (HEU) to be blended with molybdenum and depleted uranium (DU) to form 19.75% LEU, cost benefits of enriching to 19.75% will not be realized. Homogeneity of the U-235 and molybdenum in the metal foil is a challenge due to U-Mo casting process results in variations between adjacent cast U-Mo plates. LEU will not require less U-235 as previously believed due to self-shielding properties of U-238 requiring additional U-235 to be loaded in each fuel element. Although the overall dimensions of the ATR fuel element remain unchanged, the weight of the LEU ATR fuel element is 72% greater than a HEU ATR fuel element. During waste recovery and recycling efforts, separation of aluminum cladding from the HEU fuel meat is a relatively simple chemical dissolution, however, separation of the Zr diffusion barrier from the U-Mo fuel meat is significantly more challenging.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of Platforms for Nuclear Science Experiments at the National Ignition Facility

When neutrons are produced in nuclear processes such as fission or fusion, they can interact with any surrounding materials, inducing radioactivity through neutron capture reactions. Neutron reactions are fundamental to many areas of nuclear science, including studies of nuclear reactors, determining the formation of matter in stars, nuclear forensics, medical radiotherapy, and assessing the safety of our nuclear stockpile. The National Ignition Facility (NIF) offers a unique opportunity to use the inertial confinement fusion platform to measure neutron reactions essential to national security or fundamental and applied science applications. A typical fusion experiment at NIF currently produces approximately 10 16 neutrons through the fusion of deuterium and tritium in a target capsule. Materials introduced into the NIF target chamber in close proximity to the capsule will undergo neutron reactions such as capture or fission, and the resultant reaction rates can be evaluated. While neutron reactions can be measured at other facilities, NIF offers unique advantages. The flux of neutrons produced (number of neutrons per square centimeter per second) is much higher than any other available neutron source due to both the small size of the NIF capsule (2-mm diameter before implosion) and the short time (roughly 100 ps) over which the neutrons are produced. This results in less target material required to perform a reaction-rate study (less than or equal to 10 16 atoms) as compared to traditional particle accelerators, which require targets that are approximately 1 mg or roughly 10 20 atoms. Also, the NIF neutron spectrum is peaked at thermonuclear (14 MeV) neutron energy, which means that nuclear reactions with nonthermal energy thresholds can be studied at NIF, whereas neutron energies at a nuclear reactor are generally insufficient for studying higher-energy neutron reactions. Several experimental configurations have been developed that enable the use of NIF fusion capsules as powerful neutron sources for nuclear reaction measurements.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Los Alamos works on a biologically realistic computer network

Brain neuroscientists and computer scientists call this field neuromimetic computing—building computers inspired by how the cerebral cortex of the brain works. Its cortical processes rely on billions of small biological “switches,” called neurons. To learn, they store and process information. Using an approach called neural networks, researchers are developing computers that simulate neurons and their interconnections. Then computers can learn about their surroundings, interpret data, and make predictions based on it. In practice, however, researchers attempting to simulate neural processing at anything close to the scale and complexity of the brain’s cortical circuits have been stymied by limitations on computer memory and computational power. All that has changed with the new Trinity supercomputer at Los Alamos, which became fully operational in mid-2017. Trinity has unique capabilities designed for the stockpile stewardship mission, which includes highly complex nuclear simulations that have replaced the testing of nuclear weapons. All this capability means Trinity allows a fundamentally different approach to large-scale cortical simulations, enabling an unprecedented leap in the ability to model neural processing. To test that capability on a limited-scale problem, computer scientists and neuroscientists at Los Alamos created a “sparse prediction machine” that runs on a neural network on Trinity. A sparse prediction machine is designed to work like the brain: researchers expose it to data—in this case, various videos of a car driving down a road—without labeling the data in any way. Then the program sorts through that data frame by frame, focuses on the important information, and develops a prediction about the car’s motion. With Trinity’s power, the Los Alamos team simulates the way a brain handles information in its neurons but uses the fewest neurons at any given moment to explain the information at hand. That’s the “sparse” part, and it makes the brain very efficient—and, hopefully, a computer more efficient, too.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep Direct-Use for Industrial Applications: Producing Chilled Water for Gas-Turbine Inlet Cooling

Direct use of deep, low-temperature geothermal resources is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for what are historically small-scale, variable-demand projects. This project assesses the feasibility of geothermal energy integration in natural-gas combined cycle power stations in the Sabine Uplift and Gulf Coast regions of Texas. The low-grade geothermal resource is tapped to drive absorption chillers for production of chilled water at 5-10 degrees C (41-50 degrees F). This chilled water is stockpiled and dispatched to provide turbine inlet cooling (TIC) at the inlet to the compressor of a natural-gas combined cycle power plant, thereby boosting power production during periods of high temperature and high-power demand. This presentation focuses on the system design related to geothermal well-site selection (proximity vs. resource quality), absorption chiller size and location, chilled-water storage capacity, and dispatch logic to realize the maximum financial benefit.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Virtues of Nuclear Ignorance

Americans of a certain age are well acquainted with one of Ronald Reagan’s pithier maxims: “Trust, but verify.” It is a translation of a Russian proverb, and Reagan used it often in his dealings with the Soviet Union over nuclear disarmament, as both countries chipped away tentatively at their Cold War stockpiles. For him, the saying encapsulated the idea that a good treaty would require rigorous inspections, to insure that neither side was dragging its feet or, worse, disposing of decoy bombs, rather than real ones. But how should the process of verification work? If a U.S. scientist were allowed to dismantle a Russian warhead personally, he or she could identify it as legitimate fairly easily, even if it differed in design from American models. But, in doing so, the scientist would necessarily learn many classified details about the weapon, something that the Russians would never consent to. (Nor would the Americans, if their roles were swapped.)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Tough Stuff: Extreme Materials for Extreme Challenges

Bombs that work reliably are important to U.S. national security. That requires knowing how the materials in a bomb behave under extreme conditions. Several decades of fundamental research supported by the DOE Basic Energy Sciences office created new understanding and practical tools to predict how metals deform, how they age, how they fail, and how to make them stronger. The impact of that knowledge has transformed not just the management of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile, but also virtually every sector that uses metal—steel and aluminum, energy, automotive, aircraft, and other industries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗