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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

TESS Discovery of a Super-Earth and Three Sub-Neptunes Hosted by the Bright, Sun-like Star HD 108236

We report the discovery and validation of four extrasolar planets hosted by the nearby, bright, Sun-like (G3V) star HD 108236 using data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). We present transit photometry, reconnaissance, and precise Doppler spectroscopy, as well as high-resolution imaging, to validate the planetary nature of the objects transiting HD 108236, also known as the TESS Object of Interest (TOI) 1233. The innermost planet is a possibly rocky super-Earth with a period of 3.79523{sub −0.00044}{sup +0.00047} days and has a radius of 1.586 ± 0.098 R {sub ⊕}. The outer planets are sub-Neptunes, with potential gaseous envelopes, having radii of 2.068{sub −0.091}{sup +0.10} R {sub ⊕}, 2.72 ± 0.11 R {sub ⊕}, and 3.12{sub −0.12}{sup +0.13} R {sub ⊕} and periods of 6.20370{sub −0.00052}{sup +0.00064} days, 14.17555{sub −0.0011}{sup +0.00099} days, and 19.5917{sub −0.0020}{sup +0.0022} days, respectively. With V and K {sub s} magnitudes of 9.2 and 7.6, respectively, the bright host star makes the transiting planets favorable targets for mass measurements and, potentially, for atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy. HD 108236 is the brightest Sun-like star in the visual (V) band known to host four or more transiting exoplanets. The discovered planets span a broad range of planetary radii and equilibrium temperatures and share a common history of insolation from a Sun-like star (R {sub ⋆} = 0.888 ± 0.017 R {sub ⊙}, T {sub eff} = 5730 ± 50 K), making HD 108236 an exciting, opportune cosmic laboratory for testing models of planet formation and evolution.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Planet Formation by Gas-assisted Accretion of Small Solids

We compute the accretion efficiency of small solids, with radii 1 cm ≤ R s ≤ 10 m, on planets embedded in gaseous disks. Planets have masses 3 ≤ M p ≤ 20 Earth masses (M ⊕ ) and orbit within 10 au of a solar mass star. Disk thermodynamics is modeled via 3D radiation-hydrodynamics calculations that typically resolve the planetary envelopes. Both icy and rocky solids are considered, explicitly modeling their thermodynamic evolution. The maximum efficiencies of 1 ≤ R s ≤ 100 cm particles are generally ≲10%, whereas 10 m solids tend to accrete efficiently or be segregated beyond the planet’s orbit. A simplified approach is applied to compute the accretion efficiency of small cores, with masses M p ≤ 1 M ⊕ and without envelopes, for which efficiencies are approximately proportional to $M^{2/3}_{p}$. The mass flux of solids, estimated from unperturbed drag-induced drift velocities, provides typical accretion rates dM p /dt ≲ 10 -5 M ⊕ yr -1 . In representative disk models with an initial gas-to-dust mass ratio of 70–100 and total mass of 0.05–0.06 M ⊙ , the solids’ accretion falls below 10 -6 M ⊕ yr -1 after 1–1.5 Myr. The derived accretion rates, as functions of time and planet mass, are applied to formation calculations that compute dust opacity self-consistently with the delivery of solids to the envelope. Assuming dust-to-solid coagulation times of ≈0.3 Myr and disk lifetimes of ≈3.5 Myr, heavy-element inventories in the range 3–7 M ⊕ require that ≈90–150 M ⊕ of solids cross the planet’s orbit. The formation calculations encompass a variety of outcomes, from planets a few times M ⊕ , predominantly composed of heavy elements, to giant planets. The peak luminosities during the epoch of the solids’ accretion range from ≈10 -7 to ≈10 -6 L ⊙ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Metal-weak Milky Way Stellar Disk Hidden in the Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus Debris: The APOGEE DR17 View

We have for the first time identified the early stellar disk in the Milky Way by using a combination of elemental abundances and kinematics. Using data from APOGEE DR17 and Gaia we select stars in the Mg–Mn–Al–Fe plane with elemental abundances indicative of an accreted origin and find stars with both halo-like and disk-like kinematics. The stars with halo-like kinematics lie along a lower sequence in [Mg/Fe], while the stars with disk-like kinematics lie along a higher sequence. Combined with astroseismic observations, we determine that the stars with halo-like kinematics are old, 9–11 Gyr, and that the more evolved stellar disk is about 1–2 Gyr younger. We show that the in situ fraction of stars on deeply bound orbits is not small, in fact the inner Galaxy likely harbors a genuine in situ population together with an accreted one. In addition, we show that the selection of the Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus in the E n -L z plane is not very robust. In fact, radically different selection criteria give almost identical elemental abundance signatures for the accreted stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Relativistic Alfvén Waves Entering Charge-starvation in the Magnetospheres of Neutron Stars

Instabilities in a neutron star can generate Alfvén waves in its magnetosphere. Propagation along the curved magnetic field lines strongly shears the wave, boosting its electric current j A . We derive an analytic expression for the evolution of the wavevector k and the growth of j A . In the strongly sheared regime, j A may exceed the maximum current j0 that can be supported by the background e ± plasma. We investigate these charge-starved waves, first using a simplified two-fluid analytic model, then with first-principles kinetic simulations. We find that the Alfvén wave is able to propagate successfully even when κ ≡ j A /j 0 $\ll$ 1. It sustains j A by compressing and advecting the plasma along the magnetic field lines with an increasing Lorentz factor, γ ≳ κ 1/2 . The simulations show how plasma instabilities lead to gradual dissipation of the wave energy. Our results suggest that an extremely high charge-starvation parameter κ ≳ 10 4 may be required in order for this mechanism to power the observed fast radio bursts (FRBs) from SGR 1935+2154. However, cosmological FRBs with much higher luminosities are unlikely to be a result of charge-starvation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Galactic chemical evolution with the short-lived isotopes 53 Mn, 60 Fe, 182 Hf, and 244 Pu

We run a three-dimensional Galactic chemical evolution (GCE) model to follow the propagation of 53 Mn from supernovae of type Ia (SNIa), 60 Fe from core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), 182 Hf from intermediate mass stars (IMSs), and 244 Pu from neutron star mergers (NSMs) in the Galaxy. We compare the GCE of these short-lived radioactive isotopes (SLRs) to recent detections on the deep-sea floor. We find that although these SLRs originate from different sites, they often arrive conjointly on Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-energy neutrino emission from magnetized jets of rapidly rotating protomagnetars

ABSTRACT Relativistic jets originating from protomagnetar central engines can lead to long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and are considered potential sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays and secondary neutrinos. We explore the propagation of such jets through a broad range of progenitors, from stars which have shed their envelopes to supergiants which have not. We use a semi-analytical spin-down model for the strongly magnetized and rapidly rotating protoneutron star (PNS) to investigate the role of central engine properties such as the surface dipole field strength, initial rotation period, and jet opening angle on the interactions and dynamical evolution of the jet-cocoon system. With this model, we determine the properties of the relativistic jet, the mildly relativistic cocoon, and the collimation shock in terms of system parameters such as the time-dependent jet luminosity, injection angle, and density profile of the stellar medium. We also analyse the criteria for a successful jet breakout, the maximum energy that can be deposited into the cocoon by the relativistic jet, and structural stability of the magnetized outflow relative to local instabilities. Lastly, we compute the high-energy neutrino emission as these magnetized outflows burrow through their progenitors. Precursor neutrinos from successful GRB jets are unlikely to be detected by IceCube, which is consistent with the results of previous works. On the other hand, we find that high-energy neutrinos may be produced for extended progenitors like blue and red supergiants, and we estimate the detectability of neutrinos with next generation detectors such as IceCube-Gen2.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

SDSS-IV MaNGA: stellar rotational support in disc galaxies versus central surface density and stellar population age

ABSTRACT We investigate how the stellar rotational support changes as a function of spatially resolved stellar population age ($D_n4000$) and relative central stellar surface density ($\Delta \Sigma _1$) for MaNGA isolated/central disc galaxies. We find that the galaxy rotational support indicator $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ varies smoothly as a function of $\Delta \Sigma _1$ and $D_n4000$. $D_n4000$ versus $\Delta \Sigma _1$ follows a ‘J-shape’, with $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ contributing to the scatters. In this ‘J-shaped’ pattern rotational support increases with central $D_n4000$ when $\Delta \Sigma _1$ is low but decreases with $\Delta \Sigma _1$ when $\Delta \Sigma _1$ is high. Restricting attention to low-$\Delta \Sigma _1$ (i.e. large-radius) galaxies, we suggest that the trend of increasing rotational support with $D_n4000$ for these objects is produced by a mix of two different processes, a primary trend characterized by growth in $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ along with mass through gas accretion, on top of which disturbance episodes are overlaid, which reduce rotational support and trigger increased star formation. An additional finding is that star-forming galaxies with low $\Delta \Sigma _1$ have relatively larger radii than galaxies with higher $\Delta \Sigma _1$ at fixed stellar mass. Assuming that these relative radii rankings are preserved while galaxies are star forming then implies clear evolutionary paths in central $D_n4000$ versus $\Delta \Sigma _1$. The paper closes with comments on the implications that these paths have for the evolution of pseudo-bulges versus classical bulges. The utility of using $\rm D_n4000$–$\Delta \Sigma _1$ to study $\lambda _{R_\mathrm{e}}$ reinforces the notion that galaxy kinematics correlate both with structure and with stellar-population state, and indicates the importance of a multidimensional description for understanding bulge and galaxy evolution.

Wang, Xiaohan (ORCID:0009000283121002)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Galaxy Cruise: Deep Insights into Interacting Galaxies in the Local Universe

Abstract We present the first results from GALAXY CRUISE, a community (or citizen) science project based on data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). The current paradigm of galaxy evolution suggests that galaxies grow hierarchically via mergers, but our observational understanding of the role of mergers is still limited. The data from HSC-SSP are ideally suited to improve our understanding with improved identifications of interacting galaxies thanks to the superb depth and image quality of HSC-SSP. We launched a community science project, GALAXY CRUISE, in 2019 and have collected over two million independent classifications of 20686 galaxies at z < 0.2. We first characterize the accuracy of the participants’ classifications and demonstrate that it surpasses previous studies based on shallower imaging data. We then investigate various aspects of interacting galaxies in detail. We show that there is a clear sign of enhanced activities of super-massive black holes and star formation in interacting galaxies compared to those in isolated galaxies. The enhancement seems particularly strong for galaxies undergoing violent mergers. We also show that the mass growth rate inferred from our results is roughly consistent with the observed evolution of the stellar mass function. The second season of GALAXY CRUISE is currently underway and we conclude with future prospects. We make the morphological classification catalog used in this paper publicly available at the GALAXY CRUISE website, which will be particularly useful for machine-learning applications.

Tanaka, Masayuki↗
DOE OSTI2020

California-Kepler Survey. IX. Revisiting the Minimum-mass Extrasolar Nebula with Precise Stellar Parameters

We investigate a possible correlation between the solid surface density Σ of the minimum-mass extrasolar nebula (MMEN) and the host star mass M {sub ⋆} and metallicity [Fe/H]. Leveraging on the precise host star properties from the California-Kepler Survey (CKS), we found that Σ=50{sub −20}{sup +33} g cm{sup −2} (a/1 au){sup −1.75±0.07} (M {sub ⋆}/M {sub ⊙}){sup 1.04±0.22} 10{sup 0.22±0.05[Fe/H]} for Kepler-like systems (1–4R {sub ⊕}; a < 1 au). The strong M {sub ⋆} dependence is reminiscent of previous dust continuum results that the solid disk mass scales with M {sub ⋆}. The weaker [Fe/H] dependence shows that sub-Neptune planets, unlike giant planets, form readily in lower metallicity environment. The innermost region (a < 0.1 au) of an MMEN maintains a smooth profile despite a steep decline of planet occurrence rate: a result that favors the truncation of disks by corotating magnetospheres with a range of rotation periods, rather than the sublimation of dust. The Σ of Kepler multitransiting systems shows a much stronger correlation with M {sub ⋆} and [Fe/H] than singles. This suggests that the dynamically hot evolution that produced single systems also partially removed the memory of formation in disks. Radial-velocity planets yielded a MMEN very similar to CKS planets; transit-timing-variation planets’ postulated convergent migration history is supported by their poorly constrained MMEN. We found that lower mass stars have a higher efficiency of forming/retaining planets: for Sun-like stars, about 20% of the solid mass within ∼1 au are converted/preserved as sub-Neptunes, compared to 70% for late-K to early-M stars. This may be due to the lower binary fraction, lower giant-planet occurrence, or the longer disk lifetime of lower mass stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An outflow powers the optical rise of the nearby, fast-evolving tidal disruption event AT2019qiz

ABSTRACT At 66 Mpc, AT2019qiz is the closest optical tidal disruption event (TDE) to date, with a luminosity intermediate between the bulk of the population and the faint-and-fast event iPTF16fnl. Its proximity allowed a very early detection and triggering of multiwavelength and spectroscopic follow-up well before maximum light. The velocity dispersion of the host galaxy and fits to the TDE light curve indicate a black hole mass ≈106 M⊙, disrupting a star of ≈1 M⊙. By analysing our comprehensive UV, optical, and X-ray data, we show that the early optical emission is dominated by an outflow, with a luminosity evolution L ∝ t2, consistent with a photosphere expanding at constant velocity (≳2000 km s−1), and a line-forming region producing initially blueshifted H and He ii profiles with v = 3000–10 000 km s−1. The fastest optical ejecta approach the velocity inferred from radio detections (modelled in a forthcoming companion paper from K. D. Alexander et al.), thus the same outflow may be responsible for both the fast optical rise and the radio emission – the first time this connection has been observed in a TDE. The light-curve rise begins 29 ± 2 d before maximum light, peaking when the photosphere reaches the radius where optical photons can escape. The photosphere then undergoes a sudden transition, first cooling at constant radius then contracting at constant temperature. At the same time, the blueshifts disappear from the spectrum and Bowen fluorescence lines (N iii) become prominent, implying a source of far-UV photons, while the X-ray light curve peaks at ≈1041 erg s−1. Assuming that these X-rays are from prompt accretion, the size and mass of the outflow are consistent with the reprocessing layer needed to explain the large optical to X-ray ratio in this and other optical TDEs, possibly favouring accretion-powered over collision-powered outflow models.

Nicholl, M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Handing off the outcome of binary neutron star mergers for accurate and long-term postmerger simulations

In this work, we perform binary neutron star (BNS) merger simulations in full dynamical general relativity with IllinoisGRMHD, on a Cartesian grid with adaptive-mesh refinement. After the remnant black hole has become nearly stationary, the evolution of the surrounding accretion disk on Cartesian grids over long timescales (~1s) is suboptimal, as Cartesian coordinates over-resolve the angular coordinates at large distances, and the accreting plasma flows obliquely across coordinate lines dissipating angular momentum artificially from the disk. To address this, we present the HandOff, a set of computational tools that enables the transfer of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) and spacetime data from IllinoisGRMHD to harm3d, a GRMHD code that specializes in modeling black hole accretion disks in static spacetimes over long timescales, making use of general coordinate systems with spherical topology. We demonstrate that the handoff allows for a smooth and reliable transition of GRMHD fields and spacetime data, enabling us to efficiently and reliably evolve BNS dynamics well beyond merger. We also discuss future plans, which involve incorporating advanced equations of state and neutrino physics into BNS simulations using the HandOff approach.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling The Nucleosynthetic Imprint of Stellar Merger Phenomena - Final Technical Report

This DOE CAREER project developed a comprehensive, multi-physics framework for modeling stellar mergers and their observable consequences. The work successfully integrated analytical models, three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations, stellar evolution calculations, nucleosynthesis, and radiation transport into a unified pipeline. Key scientific advances include demonstrating stellar mergers as a unifying explanation for systems such as Betelgeuse and R Coronae Borealis stars, quantifying merger-driven chemical signatures, and establishing the connection between merger physics and circumstellar environments. A major outcome of the project is the development of SuperLite, an open-source Monte Carlo radiation transport code that enables the generation of synthetic spectra for astrophysical transients. This work bridges dynamical, thermal, and radiative timescales and provides a powerful, DOE-relevant computational framework for interpreting observations of supernovae and related transient phenomena, while also contributing to workforce development through the training of postdoctoral researchers and graduate students.

Chatzopoulos, Emmanouil [Louisiana State Universit↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Milky Way tomography with APOGEE: intrinsic density distribution and structure of mono-abundance populations

ABSTRACT The spatial distribution of mono-abundance populations (MAPs, selected in [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe]) reflect the chemical and structural evolution in a galaxy and impose strong constraints on galaxy formation models. In this paper, we use APOGEE data to derive the intrinsic density distribution of MAPs in the Milky Way, after carefully considering the survey selection function. We find that a single exponential profile is not a sufficient description of the Milky Way’s disc. Both the individual MAPs and the integrated disc exhibit a broken radial density distribution; densities are relatively constant with radius in the inner Galaxy and rapidly decrease beyond the break radius. We fit the intrinsic density distribution as a function of radius and vertical height with a 2D density model that considers both a broken radial profile and radial variation of scale height (i.e. flaring). There is a large variety of structural parameters between different MAPs, indicative of strong structure evolution of the Milky Way. One surprising result is that high-α MAPs show the strongest flaring. The young, solar-abundance MAPs present the shortest scale height and least flaring, suggesting recent and ongoing star formation confined to the disc plane. Finally we derive the intrinsic density distribution and corresponding structural parameters of the chemically defined thin and thick discs. The chemical thick and thin discs have local surface mass densities of 5.62 ± 0.08 and 15.69 ± 0.32 M⊙pc−2, respectively, suggesting a massive thick disc with a local surface mass density ratio between thick to thin disc of 36 per cent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

What drives the variance of galaxy spectra?

We present a study aimed at understanding the physical phenomena underlying the formation and evolution of galaxies following a data-driven analysis of spectroscopic data based on the variance in a carefully selected sample. We apply principal component analysis (PCA) independently to three subsets of continuum-subtracted optical spectra, segregated into their nebular emission activity as quiescent, star-forming, and active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We emphasize that the variance of the input data in this work only relates to the absorption lines in the photospheres of the stellar populations. The sample is taken from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) in the stellar velocity dispersion range 100–150 km s −1 , to minimize the ‘blurring’ effect of the stellar motion. We restrict the analysis to the first three principal components (PCs) and find that PCA segregates the three types with the highest variance mapping SSP-equivalent age, along with an inextricable degeneracy with metallicity, even when all three PCs are included. Spectral fitting shows that stellar age dominates PC1, whereas PC2 and PC3 have a mixed dependence of age and metallicity. The trends support – independently of any model fitting – the hypothesis of an evolutionary sequence from star formation to AGN to quiescence. As a further test of the consistency of the analysis, we apply the same methodology in different spectral windows, finding similar trends, but the variance is maximal in the blue wavelength range, roughly around the 4000 Å break.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The co-evolution of strong AGN and central galaxies in different environments

We exploit a sample of 80 000 Sloan Digital Sky Survey central galaxies to investigate the effect of active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback on their evolution. We trace the demographics of optically selected AGN (Seyferts) as a function of their internal properties and environment. We find that the preeminence of AGN as the dominant ionizing mechanism increases with stellar mass, overtaking star formation for galaxies with M stellar ≥ 10 10 M ⊙ . The AGN fraction changes systematically with the galaxies’ star formation activity. Within the blue cloud, this fraction increases as star formation activity declines, reaching a maximum near the green valley (⁠~17 ± 4 per cent), followed by a decrease as the galaxies transition into the red sequence. This systematic trend provides evidence that AGN feedback plays a key role in regulating and suppressing star formation. In general, Seyfert central galaxies achieve an early-type morphology while they still host residual star formation. This suggests that, in all environments, the morphology of Seyfert galaxies evolves from late- to early-type before their star formation is fully quenched. Stellar mass plays an important role in this morphological transformation: while low-mass systems tend to emerge from the green valley with an elliptical morphology (T-Type ∼ −2.5 ± 0.7), their high-mass counterparts maintain a spiral morphology deeper into the red sequence. In high-stellar mass centrals, the fraction of Seyferts increases from early- to late-type galaxies, indicating that AGN feedback may be linked with the morphology and its transformation. As a result, our analysis further suggests that AGN are fuelled by their own host halo gas reservoir, but when in group centrals can also increase their gas reservoir via interactions with satellite galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The most luminous, merger-free AGNs show only marginal correlation with bar presence

The role of large-scale bars in the fuelling of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is still debated, even as evidence mounts that black hole growth in the absence of galaxy mergers cumulatively dominates and may substantially influence disc (i.e. merger-free) galaxy evolution. We investigate whether large-scale galactic bars are a good candidate for merger-free AGN fuelling. Specifically, we combine slit spectroscopy and Hubble Space Telescope imagery to characterize star formation rates (SFRs) and stellar masses of the unambiguously disc-dominated host galaxies of a sample of luminous, Type-1 AGN with 0.02 < z < 0.24. After carefully correcting for AGN signal, we find no clear difference in SFRs between AGN hosts and a stellar mass-matched sample of galaxies lacking an AGN (0.013 < z < 0.19), although this could be due to small sample size (nAGN = 34). We correct for SFR and stellar mass to minimize selection biases, and compare the bar fraction in the two samples. We find that AGNs are marginally (~1.7σ) more likely to host a bar than inactive galaxies, with AGN hosts having a bar fraction, $f_{\mathrm{bar}}=0.59^{+0.08}_{-0.09}$ and inactive galaxies having a bar fraction, $f_{\mathrm{bar}}=0.44^{+0.08}_{-0.09}$. However, we find no further differences between SFR- and mass-matched AGNs and inactive samples. While bars could potentially trigger AGN activity, they appear to have no further, unique effect on a galaxy’s stellar mass or SFR.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of New Los Alamos OPLIB Opacities in Solar Modeling Using the Mesa Code

The Sun provides the only local laboratory to test our understanding of stellar physics. The production, then, of valid dynamical models of the Sun is critical to how we think about other stars. Despite improvements in modeling methodologies and abundance measurements, solar models continue to reproduce errors in convection zone depth and surface helium abundance compared to helioseismic observations. Using the 1D stellar evolution code MESAstar, this work first evaluates the effect of changes to timestep resolution and mixing length theory on model outputs. A standard test case is then constructed with both GS98 and AGSS09 abundances using OP and OPAL opacities before implementing the new Los Alamos OPLIB opacities. It is shown that, when using GS98 abundances, OPLIB opacities improve agreement with helioseismic inference of the convection zone base radius, R czb , by 1.68-σ and 1.19-σ compared to OP and OPAL, respectively, while worsening agreement with the inferred envelope helium mass fraction, Y surf , by 0.63-σ and 0.98-σ for OP and OPAL.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connecting Current and Future Dual Active Galactic Nucleus Searches to LISA and Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detections

Abstract Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark the observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing during galaxy mergers and are the progenitors of the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct mock DAGN catalogs tailored to the selection functions of current (COSMOS-Web and DESI) and forthcoming (Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and Lynx X-ray Observatory (Lynx)) surveys, enabling direct comparisons between simulations and observations. With realistic observational selections, ASTRID reproduces the observed dual fractions, projected separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation (<5 kpc) duals that remain inaccessible to current surveys, demonstrating that the apparent paucity of subkiloparsec systems in COSMOS-Web is primarily a consequence of observational selection rather than an intrinsic absence. Following each simulated dual to coalescence, we show that DAGN are effective tracers of MBH mergers: ∼30%–70% merge within ≲1 Gyr, and 20%–60% of these mergers produce gravitational-wave signals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA). Duals observable with Roman and Lynx are the progenitors of ∼10%–50% of low-redshift LISA sources and contribute ∼30% of the PTA-band stochastic gravitational-wave background. We further identify massive green-valley galaxies hosting moderate-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGN), together with massive star-forming galaxies containing bright quasars at z > 1, as the environments most likely to host imminent MBH binaries. These results establish a unified cosmological framework connecting DAGN demographics, MBH binary evolution, and gravitational-wave sources, while identifying high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and multimessenger observations in the coming decade.

Chen, Nianyi [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik;↗