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NASA NTRS2017

Towards Designing Graceful Degradation into Trajectory Based Operations: A Human-Systems Integration Approach

One of the most fundamental changes to the air traffic management system in NextGen is the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO). With the introduction of such change, system safety and resilience is a critical concern, in particular, the ability of systems to gracefully degrade. In order to design graceful degradation into a TBO envrionment, knowledge of the potential causes of degradation, and appropriate solutions, is required. In addition, previous research has predominantly explored the technological contribution to graceful degradation, frequently neglecting to consider the role of the human operator, specifically, air traffic controllers (ATCOs). This is out of step with real-world operations, and potentially limits an ecologically valid understanding of achieving graceful degradation in an air traffic control (ATC) environment. The following literature review aims to identify and summarize the literature to date on the potential causes of degradation in ATC and the solutions that may be applied within a TBO context, with a specific focus on the contribution of the air traffic controller. A framework of graceful degradation, developed from the literature, is presented. It is argued that in order to achieve graceful degradation within TBO, a human-system integration approach must be applied.

human-system integration↗
NASA NTRS2017

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Irrigated Agriculture; Crop Model; Hydrologic Mode↗
NASA NTRS2017

Secure Network-Centric Aviation Communication (SNAC)

The existing National Airspace System (NAS) communications capabilities are largely unsecured, are not designed for efficient use of spectrum and collectively are not capable of servicing the future needs of the NAS with the inclusion of new operators in Unmanned Aviation Systems (UAS) or On Demand Mobility (ODM). SNAC will provide a ubiquitous secure, network-based communications architecture that will provide new service capabilities and allow for the migration of current communications to SNAC over time. The necessary change in communication technologies to digital domains will allow for the adoption of security mechanisms, sharing of link technologies, large increase in spectrum utilization, new forms of resilience and redundancy and the possibly of spectrum reuse. SNAC consists of a long term open architectural approach with increasingly capable designs used to steer research and development and enable operating capabilities that run in parallel with current NAS systems.

Communications↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards Designing Graceful Degradation into Trajectory Based Operations: A Human-Machine System Integration Approach

One of the most fundamental changes to the air traffic management system in NextGen is the concept of trajectory based operations (TBO). With the introduction of such change, system safety and resilience is a critical concern, in particular, the ability of systems to gracefully degrade. In order to design graceful degradation into a TBO envrionment, knowledge of the potential causes of degradation, and appropriate solutions, is required. In addition, previous research has predominantly explored the technological contribution to graceful degradation, frequently neglecting to consider the role of the human operator, specifically, air traffic controllers (ATCOs). This is out of step with real-world operations, and potentially limits an ecologically valid understanding of achieving graceful degradation in an air traffic control (ATC) environment. The following literature review aims to identify and summarize the literature to date on the potential causes of degradation in ATC and the solutions that may be applied within a TBO context, with a specific focus on the contribution of the air traffic controller. A framework of graceful degradation, developed from the literature, is presented. It is argued that in order to achieve graceful degradation within TBO, a human-system integration approach must be applied.

human-system integration↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Ecosystem Service Provision Under Climate Change to Support Conservation and Development Planning in Myanmar

Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flowunder current and future climate conditionsis especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the countrys people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS2017

Cross-Disciplinarity in the Advance of Antarctic Ecosystem Research

The biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate variability of the Antarctic continent, and the Southern Ocean are major components of the whole Earth system. Antarctic ecosystems are driven more strongly by the physical environment than many other marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As a consequence, to understand ecological functioning, cross-disciplinary studies are especially important in Antarctic research. The conceptual study presented here is based on a workshop initiated by the Research Programme Antarctic Thresholds - Ecosystem Resilience and Adaption of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, which focused on challenges in identifying and applying cross-disciplinary approaches in the Antarctic. Novel ideas, and first steps in their implementation, were clustered into eight themes, ranging from scale problems, risk maps, organism and ecosystem responses to multiple environmental changes, to evolutionary processes. Scaling models and data across different spatial and temporal scales were identified as an overarching challenge. Approaches to bridge gaps in the research programmes included multi-disciplinary monitoring, linking biomolecular findings and simulated physical environments, as well as integrative ecological modelling. New strategies in academic education are proposed. The results of advanced cross-disciplinary approaches can contribute significantly to our knowledge of ecosystem functioning, the consequences of climate change, and to global assessments that ultimately benefit humankind.

Scaling↗
NASA NTRS2017

Ni-Ti Alloys for Aerospace Bearing Applications

Nickel-rich Ni-Ti alloys are emerging candidate materials for aerospace bearing applications. These alloys exhibit a unique combination of physical, chemical, and tribological properties that are highly relevant to challenging aerospace bearings and other mechanical components. Despite being made solely from metals, Ni-Ti alloys are classified as intermetallics with properties akin to both metals and ceramics. For instance, like metals, they are electrically conductive but they tend to be brittle like ceramics. When properly processed, they have high hardness, low elastic modulus and an extensive elastic deformation range that imparts extraordinarily high resilience and resistance to denting. New alloy compositions enable simpler thermal processing and machining and intensive microstructural analyses have helped elucidate the materials science mechanisms governing hardness. In this paper, the application of state-of-art in NiTi alloys for aerospace bearings and mechanical components is explored. In addition to reviewing future trends and remaining challenges, the unique approaches and methods of tailoring bearing design to accommodate NiTis unique properties is discussed.

intermetallics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Development of Storage Methods for Saccharomyces Strains to be Utilized for In situ Nutrient Production in Long-Duration Space Missions

Long-duration space missions will benefit from closed-loop life support technologies that minimize mass, volume, and power as well as decrease reliance on Earth-based resupply. A system for In situ production of essential vitamins and nutrients can address the documented problem of degradation of stored food and supplements. Research has shown that the edible yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae can be used as an on-demand system for the production of various compounds that are beneficial to human health. A critical objective in the development of this approach for long-duration space missions is the effective storage of the selected microorganisms. This research investigates the effects of different storage methods on survival rates of the non-sporulating probiotic S. boulardii, and S. cerevisiae spores and vegetative cells. Dehydration has been shown to increase long-term yeast viability, which also allows increased shelf-life and reduction in mass and volume. The process of dehydration causes detrimental effects on vegetative cells, including oxidative damage and membrane disruption. To maximize cell viability, various dehydration methods are tested here, including lyophilization (freeze-drying), air drying, and dehydration by vacuum. As a potential solution to damage caused by lyophilization, the efficacy of various cryoprotectants was tested. Furthermore, in an attempt to maintain higher survival rates, the effect of temperature during long-term storage was investigated. Data show spores of the wild-type strain to be more resilient to dehydration-related stressors than vegetative cells of either strain, and maintain high viability rates even after one year at room temperature. In the event that engineering the organism to produce targeted nutrient compounds interferes with effective sporulation of S. cerevisiae, a more robust method for improving vegetative cell storage is being sought. Therefore, anhydrobiotic engineering of S. cerevisiae and S. boulardii is being conducted

nutrient↗
NASA NTRS2017

Identification of Novel Desiccation-Tolerant S. cerevisiae Strains for Deep Space Biosensors

NASA's BioSentinel mission, a secondary payload that will fly on the Space Launch System's first Exploration Mission (EM-1), utilizes the budding yeast S. cerevisiae to study the biological response to the deep space radiation environment. Yeast samples are desiccated prior to launch to suspend growth and metabolism while the spacecraft travels to its target heliocentric orbit beyond Low Earth Orbit. Each sample is then rehydrated at the desired time points to reactivate the cells. A major risk in this mission is the loss of cell viability that occurs in the recovery period following the desiccation and rehydration process. Cell survival is essential for the detection of the biological response to features in the deep space environment, including ionizing radiation. The aim of this study is to mitigate viable cell loss in future biosensors by identifying mutations and genes that confer tolerance to desiccation stress in rad51, a radiation-sensitive yeast strain. We initiated a screen for desiccation-tolerance after rehydrating cells that were desiccated for three years, and selected various clones exhibiting robust growth. To verify retention of radiation sensitivity in the isolated clones - a crucial feature for a successful biosensor - we exposed them to ionizing radiation. Finally, to elucidate the genetic and molecular bases for observed desiccation-tolerance, we will perform whole-genome sequencing of those rad51 clones that exhibit both robust growth and radiation sensitivity following desiccation. The identification and characterization of desiccation-tolerant strains will allow us to engineer a biological model that will be resilient in face of the challenges of the deep space environment, and will thus ensure the experimental success of future biosensor missions.

S. cerevisiae↗
NASA NTRS2017

Identification of Novel Desiccation-Tolerant S. cerevisiae Strains for Deep Space Biosensors

NASA's BioSentinel mission, a secondary payload that will fly on the Space Launch Systems first Exploration Mission (EM-1), utilizes the budding yeast S. cerevisiae to study the biological response to the deep space radiation environment. Yeast samples are desiccated prior to launch to suspend growth and metabolism while the spacecraft travels to its target heliocentric orbit beyond Low Earth Orbit. Each sample is then rehydrated at the desired time points to reactivate the cells. A major risk in this mission is the loss of cell viability that occurs in the recovery period following the desiccation and rehydration process. Cell survival is essential for the detection of the biological response to features in the deep space environment, including ionizing radiation.The aim of this study is to mitigate viable cell loss in future biosensors by identifying mutations and genes that confer tolerance to desiccation stress in rad51, a radiation-sensitive yeast strain. We initiated a screen for desiccation-tolerance after rehydrating cells that were desiccated for three years, and selected various clones exhibiting robust growth. To verify retention of radiation sensitivity in the isolated clonesa crucial feature for a successful biosensorwe exposed them to ionizing radiation. Finally, to elucidate the genetic and molecular bases for observed desiccation-tolerance, we will perform whole-genome sequencing of those rad51 clones that exhibit both robust growth and radiation sensitivity following desiccation. The identification and characterization of desiccation-tolerant strains will allow us to engineer a biological model that will be resilient in face of the challenges of the deep space environment, and will thus ensure the experimental success of future biosensor missions.

S. cerevisiae↗
NASA NTRS2016

Participatory Climate Research in a Dynamic Urban Context: Activities of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN)

The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), one of ten NOAA-RISAs, supports resilience efforts in the urban corridor stretching from Philadelphia to Boston. Challenges and opportunities include the diverse set of needs in broad urban contexts, as well as the integration of interdisciplinary perspectives. CCRUN is addressing these challenges through strategies including: 1) the development of an integrated project framework, 2) stakeholder surveys, 3) leveraging extreme weather events as focusing opportunities, and 4) a seminar series that enables scientists and stakeholders to partner. While recognizing that the most extreme weather events will always lead to surprises (even with sound planning), CCRUN endeavors to remain flexible by facilitating place-based research in an interdisciplinary context.

extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2016

Cyber-Threat Assessment for the Air Traffic Management System: A Network Controls Approach

Air transportation networks are being disrupted with increasing frequency by failures in their cyber- (computing, communication, control) systems. Whether these cyber- failures arise due to deliberate attacks or incidental errors, they can have far-reaching impact on the performance of the air traffic control and management systems. For instance, a computer failure in the Washington DC Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZDC) on August 15, 2015, caused nearly complete closure of the Centers airspace for several hours. This closure had a propagative impact across the United States National Airspace System, causing changed congestion patterns and requiring placement of a suite of traffic management initiatives to address the capacity reduction and congestion. A snapshot of traffic on that day clearly shows the closure of the ZDC airspace and the resulting congestion at its boundary, which required augmented traffic management at multiple locations. Cyber- events also have important ramifications for private stakeholders, particularly the airlines. During the last few months, computer-system issues have caused several airlines fleets to be grounded for significant periods of time: these include United Airlines (twice), LOT Polish Airlines, and American Airlines. Delays and regional stoppages due to cyber- events are even more common, and may have myriad causes (e.g., failure of the Department of Homeland Security systems needed for security check of passengers, see [3]). The growing frequency of cyber- disruptions in the air transportation system reflects a much broader trend in the modern society: cyber- failures and threats are becoming increasingly pervasive, varied, and impactful. In consequence, an intense effort is underway to develop secure and resilient cyber- systems that can protect against, detect, and remove threats, see e.g. and its many citations. The outcomes of this wide effort on cyber- security are applicable to the air transportation infrastructure, and indeed security solutions are being implemented in the current system. While these security solutions are important, they only provide a piecemeal solution. Particular computers or communication channels are protected from particular attacks, without a holistic view of the air transportation infrastructure. On the other hand, the above-listed incidents highlight that a holistic approach is needed, for several reasons. First, the air transportation infrastructure is a large scale cyber-physical system with multiple stakeholders and diverse legacy assets. It is impractical to protect every cyber- asset from known and unknown disruptions, and instead a strategic view of security is needed. Second, disruptions to the cyber- system can incur complex propagative impacts across the air transportation network, including its physical and human assets. Also, these implications of cyber- events are exacerbated or modulated by other disruptions and operational specifics, e.g. severe weather, operator fatigue or error, etc. These characteristics motivate a holistic and strategic perspective on protecting the air transportation infrastructure from cyber- events. The analysis of cyber- threats to the air traffic system is also inextricably tied to the integration of new autonomy into the airspace. The replacement of human operators with cyber functions leaves the network open to new cyber threats, which must be modeled and managed. Paradoxically, the mitigation of cyber events in the airspace will also likely require additional autonomy, given the fast time scale and myriad pathways of cyber-attacks which must be managed. The assessment of new vulnerabilities upon integration of new autonomy is also a key motivation for a holistic perspective on cyber threats.

Complex Networks↗
NASA NTRS2017

LEO to GEO (and Beyond) Transfers Using High Power Solar Electric Propulsion (HP-SEP)

Rideshare, or Multi-Payload launch configurations, are becoming more and more commonplace but access to space is only one part of the overall mission needs. The ability for payloads to achieve their target orbits or destinations can still be difficult and potentially not feasible with on-board propulsion limitations. The High Power Solar Electric Propulsion (HP-SEP) Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) provides transfer capabilities for both large and small payload in excess of what is possible with chemical propulsion. Leveraging existing secondary payload adapter technology like the ESPA provides a platform to support Multi-Payload launch and missions. When coupled with HP-SEP, meaning greater than 30 kW system power, very large delta-V maneuvers can be accomplished. The HP-SEP OMV concept is designed to perform a Low Earth Orbit to Geosynchronous Orbit (LEO-GEO) transfer of up to six payloads each with 300kg mass. The OMV has enough capability to perform this 6 kms maneuver and have residual capacity to extend an additional transfer from GEO to Lunar orbit. This high deltaV capability is achieved using state of the art 12.5kW Hall Effect Thrusters (HET) coupled with high power roll up solar arrays. The HP-SEP OMV also provides a demonstration platform for other SEP technologies such as advanced Power Processing Units (PPU), Xenon Feed Systems (XFS), and other HET technologies. The HP-SEP OMV platform can be leveraged for other missions as well such as interplanetary science missions and applications for resilient space architectures.

Leo and Geo and HP-SEP↗
NASA NTRS2017

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗
NASA NTRS2018

Optimization of Second Fault Detection Thresholds to Maximize Mission POS

In order to support manned spaceflight safety requirements, the Space Launch System (SLS) has defined program-level requirements for key systems to ensure successful operation under single fault conditions. To accommodate this with regards to Navigation, the SLS utilizes an internally redundant Inertial Navigation System (INS) with built-in capability to detect, isolate, and recover from first failure conditions and still maintain adherence to performance requirements. The unit utilizes multiple hardware- and software-level techniques to enable detection, isolation, and recovery from these events in terms of its built-in Fault Detection, Isolation, and Recovery (FDIR) algorithms. Successful operation is defined in terms of sufficient navigation accuracy at insertion while operating under worst case single sensor outages (gyroscope and accelerometer faults at launch). In addition to first fault detection and recovery, the SLS program has also levied requirements relating to the capability of the INS to detect a second fault, tracking any unacceptable uncertainty in knowledge of the vehicle's state. This detection functionality is required in order to feed abort analysis and ensure crew safety. Increases in navigation state error and sensor faults can drive the vehicle outside of its operational as-designed environments and outside of its performance envelope causing loss of mission, or worse, loss of crew. The criteria for operation under second faults allows for a larger set of achievable missions in terms of potential fault conditions, due to the INS operating at the edge of its capability. As this performance is defined and controlled at the vehicle level, it allows for the use of system level margins to increase probability of mission success on the operational edges of the design space. Due to the implications of the vehicle response to abort conditions (such as a potentially failed INS), it is important to consider a wide range of failure scenarios in terms of both magnitude and time. As such, the Navigation team is taking advantage of the INS's capability to schedule and change fault detection thresholds in flight. These values are optimized along a nominal trajectory in order to maximize probability of mission success, and reducing the probability of false positives (defined as when the INS would report a second fault condition resulting in loss of mission, but the vehicle would still meet insertion requirements within system-level margins). This paper will describe an optimization approach using Genetic Algorithms to tune the threshold parameters to maximize vehicle resilience to second fault events as a function of potential fault magnitude and time of fault over an ascent mission profile. The analysis approach, and performance assessment of the results will be presented to demonstrate the applicability of this process to second fault detection to maximize mission probability of success.

Anzalone, Evan↗
NASA NTRS2017

Increasing Small Satellite Reliability- A Public-Private Initiative

At present, CubeSat components and buses are generally not appropriate for missions where significant risk of failure, or the inability to quantify risk or confidence, is acceptable. However, in the future we anticipate that CubeSats will be used for missions requiring reliability of 1-3 years for Earth-observing missions and even longer for Planetary, Heliophysics, and Astrophysics missions. Their growing potential utility is driving an interagency effort to improve and quantify CubeSat reliability, and more generally, small satellite mission risk. The Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI)—an ongoing activity with broad collaborative participation from civil, DoD, and commercial space systems providers and stakeholders—targets this challenge. The Initiative seeks to define implementable and broadly-accepted approaches to achieve reliability and acceptable risk postures associated with several SmallSat mission risk classes—from “do no harm” missions, to those associated with missions whose failure would result in loss or delay of key national objectives. These approaches will maintain, to the extent practical, cost efficiencies associated with small satellite missions and consider constraints associated with supply chain elements, as appropriate. The SSRI addresses this challenge from two architectural levels—the mission- or system-level, and the component- or subsystem-level. The mission- or system-level scope targets assessment approaches that are efficient and effective, with mitigation strategies that facilitate resiliency to mission or system anomalies while the component- or subsystem-level scope addresses the challenge at lower architectural levels. The initiative does not limit strategies and approaches to proven and traditional methodologies, but is focused on fomenting thought on novel and innovative solutions. This paper discusses the genesis of and drivers for this initiative, how the public-private collaboration is being executed, findings and recommendations derived to date, and next steps towards broadening small satellite mission potential.

SmallSat↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostics Framework Development for Swarm Satellite Formations

Prognostics is the science of predicting the failure(s) of a component or a system and understanding how the performance will change in the event of a failure or degradation mechanism. With accurate predictions of possible failures, autonomous mitigative actions can be taken to correct/repair any issues or alert human operators of a failure threshold exceedance requiring condition-based maintenance. Although there is extensive research on failure predictions for a component or a system, there are significantly more opportunities to foray into failure predictions and prognostics for a system of systems such as an airspace consisting of multiple aircraft, a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, and a swarm of intelligent satellite systems. Failure prediction and mitigation are particularly important in autonomous systems such as satellite swarm systems that need effective resource management and minimal human interactions. Based on NASA's decadal survey, there is a clear need to prioritize the development of satellite swarm technology for studies of space physics and Earth science. The science community will propose future missions that return in-situ measurements from a 3-D (three-dimensional) volume of space, with relative spacecraft motion and inter-satellite baselines controlled according to the mission objectives. For such multi-spacecraft missions, it is required that ground operations resources do not scale with the number of satellites, thus compromising the swarm or leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation. Swarms of tens or hundreds of small satellites will require autonomy in attitude control, navigation and failure. Although significant research has been conducted in the areas of autonomous formation flying algorithms, less attention has been given to the development of resilient systems robust to failures.The focus of this research paper is the integration of model-based prognostics into the swarm dynamics control and decision-making algorithms. We simulate swarm management strategies for a subsystem failure to demonstrate the importance of failure predictions by comparing two cases: (i) no health information is provided to the system and utilized in the decision-making process and (2) system health information is obtained using prognostics and employed by the control system. One example scenario presented is for the GPS (Global Positioning System) system of an individual satellite to perform off-nominally due to increasing estimated error. In this scenario, the keep-out zone for that satellite would become more conservative, thereby decreasing the risk of collision. This is achieved via tuning the individual artificial repulsive functions assigned to each satellite.This paper is structured as follows. First we provide an overview of current swarm technology development, where we specifically use the term swarm to define multiple satellites flying in formation in similar orbits, with cross-link communication and station-keeping capabilities. Second, we give an introduction to the Swarm Orbital Dynamics Advisor (SODA), a tool that accepts high-level configuration commands and provides the orbital maneuvers required to achieve the prescribed formation configuration. Third, we provide the details of the model-based prognostics algorithm implementation in SODA. Finally, we present different case studies for potential component/subsystem failures and the swarm responses based with and without failure prediction information.

prognostics↗