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At least 631 records · Page 35

Simulations of Water Flow in Relation to a Steady Criticality in an Unsaturated Alluvial Repository

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is examining the conditions under which a criticality event could be ruled out for large packages placed in an unsaturated alluvial repository. This work specifically examines the water level in a stylized waste package that is assumed (1) to fail on the top, and (2) to empty as water is driven away—not by boiling—but by fluid flow phenomena driven by thermal gradients. This analysis uses the PFLOTRAN code package. Specifically, this year’s work includes examination of the heat rate at which water is driven away for various percolation rates using the same assumptions listed in the 2022 annual report. The STANDARDS (formerly UNF-ST&DARDS) package has predicted dual-purpose canister (DPC) neutron multiplication factors (k-effectives) ranging above 1.1 (unitless) with failed components. The DPC designs were not created with the intent to use for disposal purposes. Emplacing such packages may be worth consideration if it can be shown that criticality is either extremely unlikely or of very low consequence to the repository’s safety case. This work aims to help establish hydrologic boundary conditions for a highly hypothetical, highly stylized subsurface criticality event. The approach to critical is assumed to be slow, producing steady heating rates under a few kilowatts. For a DPC containing capillary media, the simulated power required for dry-out was proportional to the percolation rate but was unaffected by the size of a large breech on top of the DPC. Results for single cases with no capillary media in the DPC suggest that higher infiltration rates may be required in those cases to cause flooding. Bounding mechanisms and assumptions must be identified and characterized further by performing additional perturbations to various input parameters to demonstrate robustness of the results. This might be accomplished by examining responses to power pulses to determine the system transfer function required to enable a reduced order feedback model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Support for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

In this research, artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) methods are used to search an uncertain parameter space more efficiently for the most important inputs with respect to response sensitivities. These methods are applied to the Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) probabilistic fracture mechanics code used at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in support of nuclear regulatory research. This report documents two separate but related sub-tasks: (1) ranking important uncertain input features with respect to target outputs, determined by convergence in confidence intervals for increasing sample sizes using simple random sampling; and (2) implementation of a reduced-order surrogate model for fast, approximate sample generation. Unoptimized readily available off-the-shelf ML models were used in both sub-tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enhancements to Overset Methods for Achieving Higher Accuracy and Solution Convergence: Preprint

Overset methods, when utilized within a multi-solver framework, provide a very flexible and powerful toolset for analyzing moving body problem. However, many overset framework suffer from several deficiencies such as (1) convergence degradation of the non-linear iterative schemes (2) difficulty in achieving higher-order accuracy and (3) high computational costs over long simulation times. In this work, we explore approaches that mitigate these deficiencies and provide a pathway for improved accuracy and fidelity of overset methods. A high-order, discontinuous Galerkin solver is integrated into an existing overset framework and applied to an unsteady ROBIN fuselage case. For convergence acceleration, an Overset-GMRES linear solver with a timestep controller is applied to a DLR-F6 aircraft steady simulation and an unsteady, notional rotor-fuselage. Finally the same rotor-fuselage case as well as the JVX rotor/wing case is simulated using a reduced-order aerodynamic model.

aerospace↗

Windowed least-squares model reduction for dynamical systems

Here we propose a windowed least-squares (WLS) approach for model reduction of dynamical systems. The proposed approach sequentially minimizes the time-continuous full-order-model residual within a low-dimensional space–time trial subspace over time windows. The approach comprises a generalization of existing model reduction approaches, as particular instances of the methodology recover Galerkin, least-squares Petrov–Galerkin (LSPG), and space–time LSPG projection. In addition, the approach addresses key deficiencies in existing model reduction techniques, e.g., the dependence of LSPG and space–time LSPG projection on the time discretization and the exponential growth in time exhibited by a posteriori error bounds for both Galerkin and LSPG projection. We consider two types of space–time trial subspaces within the proposed approach: one that reduces only the spatial dimension of the full-order model, and one that reduces both the spatial and temporal dimensions of the full-order model. For each type of trial subspace, we consider two different solution techniques: direct (i.e., discretize then optimize) and indirect (i.e., optimize then discretize). Numerical experiments conducted using trial subspaces characterized by spatial dimension reduction demonstrate that the WLS approach can yield more accurate solutions with lower space–time residuals than Galerkin and LSPG projection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine-Learned Manifold-Based Models for Large Eddy Simulation of Turbulent Combustion

Reduced-order manifold combustion models are commonly used to lower the cost of reacting Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and may be derived either from physical principles as in flamelet models or from data-driven methods like Principal Component Analysis (PCA). In either case, neural networks are increasingly used as part of these models to provide a nonlinear mapping between a small set of pre-defined variables that parameterize the manifold and outputs of interest, such as reaction rates. In this work, we propose a new manifold-based modeling approach that combines the definition of the manifold-parameterizing variables (linear combinations of species), the nonlinear mapping to the outputs, and closure of filtered quantities for LES into the structure of a single neural network. This allows the process used to train the neural network to simultaneously optimize both the functional form of the model and the identities of the inputs to the model. The new approach can flexibly incorporate thermochemical data from any combustion system; if trained on data from 1D flames it can be interpreted as an optimized flamelet model, but it can also be used to learn models from data from more complex configurations. This work presents a priori evaluations of the new approach in both contexts. Evaluation using data from 1D premixed flames demonstrates the physical interpretability of the manifold variables generated by the new approach. Evaluation using data from direct numerical simulations of turbulent flames shows improved predictions relative to either flamelet or PCA-based models in a more complex configuration.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control

The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.

building modeling↗

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Development and Demonstration of a Reduced-Order PWR Power Dispatch Simulator

This report describes the development, modeling, and results of a reduced-order thermal power dispatch pressurized water reactor (RO-TPD-PWR) power plant simulator that incorporates coupled electrical and thermal power dispatch to an industrial process. The simulator is built on models that have been developed in previous work, including a Rancor Microworld model previously developed by INL and the University of Idaho [Ref] and reactor core and secondary system models that have been published previously [Ref]. The simulator also includes a scalable model of a high temperature electrolysis (HTE) system that has been developed at INL. A particular benefit of the Rancor Microworld model is that it is compatible with a human-system interface (HMI) that has already been developed by the Human System Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) at INL that can emulate the control room of a PWR for realistic human-in-the-loop studies with mock nuclear power plant operating procedures. The results of these human-in-the-loop tests will be compared with similar tests using a commercial full-scope generic PWR (GPWR) simulator that has been modified to include thermal power dispatch, referred to as the TPD-GPWR [ , ]. The simplicity of the RO-TPD-PWR helps to better understand and verify the results of the TPD-GPWR, which employs >1,000 variables and has much greater complexity. A second key purpose of the RO-TPD-PWR simulator is that its relative simplicity allows it scale between lab-size equipment (~100 kW) and full-scale nuclear power plants (~1 GW) by adjusting only a few parameters in the models, such as fluid masses and heat exchanger areas. The RO-TPD-PWR simulator will be used to guide the controls of lab tests, so that equipment in those tests, such as the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) and pilot-scale high temperature electrolysis (HTE) units at scales of 50-250 kW, may operate in a manner that is relevant to full-scale PWR operations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Machine Learning-Assisted High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Optimization: Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning Input and Output Files

This data set includes the numerical modeling input files and output files used to synthesize data, and the reduced-order machine learning models trained from the synthesized data for reservoir thermal energy storage site identification. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to identify High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (HT-RTES) site with optimal performance metrics by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems. All the simulations and the neural network model were done by Idaho National Laboratory. A detailed description of the work was reported in publication linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Augmenting the Structural Dynamics Workflow to Reduce Development Times [Slides]

The structural dynamics workflow at LANL stands to be improved by implementing methods and techniques related to reduced-order finite-element modeling (FEM), pretest predictions, and FEM-test correlation and updating. The benefits of these industry-standard practices are demonstrated in this work. Software used for this project included Ansys 2023 R2 (Mechanical and Spaceclaim), Creo Parametric 8.0, MathCAD Prime 8.0, Matlab R2023b.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A level set approach for the computational study of a yield stress fluid filling a thin mold

Many important engineering and scientific applications such as cement slurries, foams, crude oil, and granular avalanches involve the concept of yield stress. Therefore, modeling yield stress fluids in different flow configurations, including the accurate prediction of the yield surface, is important. In this paper, we present a computational model based on the finite element method to study the flow of yield stress fluids in a thin mold and compare the results with data from flow visualization experiments. Here, we use the level set method to describe the interface between the filling fluid and air. We use polypropylene glycol as a model Newtonian fluid and Carbopol for the model yield stress fluid, as the Carbopol solution demonstrates yielding without thixotropy. To describe the yielding and shear-thinning behavior, we use a generalized Newtonian constitutive equation with a Bingham–Carreau–Yasuda form. We compare the results obtained from the mold filling experiments with the results from the three-dimensional (3D) model and from a reduced-order Hele-Shaw (HS) model that is two-dimensional, including the effect of shear-thinning along the thin direction only approximately. We show that both the 3D and the HS model can capture the experimental meniscus shape reasonably well for all the fluids considered at three different flow rates. This indicates that the shape evolution is insensitive to the dimensionality of the model. However, the viscosity and yield surfaces predicted by the 3D and HS models are different. The HS model underestimates the high viscosity and unyielded regions compared to the estimation by the 3D model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Accelerating charge estimation in molecular dynamics simulations using physics-informed neural networks: corrosion applications

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations are used to understand the effects of corrosion on metallic materials in salt brine. Reactive force fields in classical MD enable accurate modeling of bond formation and breakage in the aqueous medium and at the metal-electrolyte interface, while also facilitating dynamic partial charge equilibration. However, MD simulations are computationally intensive and unsuitable for modeling the long time scales characteristic of corrosive phenomena. To address this, we develop reduced-order machine learning models that provide accurate and efficient predictions of charge density in corrosive environments. Specifically, we use Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast charge density evolution based on atomic environments represented by Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) descriptors. A physics-informed loss function enforces charge neutrality and electronegativity equivalence. The atomic charges predicted by the deep learning model trained on this work were obtained two orders of magnitude faster than those from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, with an error of less than 3% compared to the MD-obtained charges, even in extrapolative scenarios, while adhering to physical constraints. This demonstrates the excellent accuracy, computational efficiency, and validity of the developed model. Lastly, even though developed for corrosion, these protocols are formulated in a phenomenon-agnostic manner, allowing application to various variable-charge interatomic potentials and related fields.

Atomistic models↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study of CORC Conductors With Respect to Individual Tape Properties

CEA has been studying the advantages of a conductor based on an assembly of CORC cables in the high field zone of a hybrid Central Solenoid (CS) magnet for EU-DEMO. To this end, the detailed study of geometrical and electrical parameters of a CORC structure are studied in order to evaluate the cable’s electrical performance as well as to determine a number of important parameters (crossing points, contact surface etc…) as function of the cable structure. The paper first presents these geometrical and performance analyses. It will then try to introduce smeared models in order to reduce the cable’s performance to 1D tape scaling law using effective parameters. That reduction is of importance for use in thermohydraulic models. Finally, the paper will present the case study of a particular CORC conductor that is being procured and is foreseen to be tested in SULTAN in 2025. The paper also will try to give some predictive estimate of the cable performance and identify some of the unknowns related to current redistribution and joint resistance.

CORC↗