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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 5 Appendix D—Forecast Maximum Near-Surface Air Temperature.

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 11, Appendix J - Forecast Evaporation

This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physical Invariants of Intelligence

A program of research is dedicated to development of a mathematical formalism that could provide, among other things, means by which living systems could be distinguished from non-living ones. A major issue that arises in this research is the following question: What invariants of mathematical models of the physics of systems are (1) characteristic of the behaviors of intelligent living systems and (2) do not depend on specific features of material compositions heretofore considered to be characteristic of life? This research at earlier stages has been reported, albeit from different perspectives, in numerous previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. To recapitulate: One of the main underlying ideas is to extend the application of physical first principles to the behaviors of living systems. Mathematical models of motor dynamics are used to simulate the observable physical behaviors of systems or objects of interest, and models of mental dynamics are used to represent the evolution of the corresponding knowledge bases. For a given system, the knowledge base is modeled in the form of probability distributions and the mental dynamics is represented by models of the evolution of the probability densities or, equivalently, models of flows of information. At the time of reporting the information for this article, the focus of this research was upon the following aspects of the formalism: Intelligence is considered to be a means by which a living system preserves itself and improves its ability to survive and is further considered to manifest itself in feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics. Because of the feedback from the mental dynamics, the motor dynamics attains quantum-like properties: The trajectory of the physical aspect of the system in the space of dynamical variables splits into a family of different trajectories, and each of those trajectories can be chosen with a probability prescribed by the mental dynamics. From a slightly different perspective, the mechanism of decision-making is feedback from the mental dynamics to the motor dynamics, and this mechanism provides a quantum-like collapse of a random motion into an appropriate deterministic state, such that entropy undergoes a pronounced decrease. The existence of this mechanism is considered to be an invariant of intelligent behavior of living systems, regardless of the origins and material compositions of the systems.

Zak, Michail↗
DOE OSTI2013

Theory of particle detection and multiplicity counting with dead time effects

The subject of this paper is the investigation of the effect of the dead time on the statistics of the particle detection process. A theoretical treatment is provided with the application of the methods of renewal theory. The detector efficiency and various types of the dead time are accounted for. Exact analytical results are derived for the probability distribution functions, the expectations and the variances of the number of detected particles. Explicit solutions are given for a few representative cases. The results should serve for the evaluation of the measurements in view of the dead time correction effects for the higher moments of the detector counts. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2012

Probabilistic methods in a study of trip setpoints

Most early vintage Boiling Water Reactors have a high head and high capacity High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) pump to keep the core covered following a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). However, the protection afforded by the HPCI pump for mitigating a LOCA introduces the potential that a spurious start of the HPCI pump could oversupply the reactor vessel and lead to an automatic trip of the main turbine due to high water level. A turbine trip and associated increase in moderator density could challenge the bases of fuel integrity operating limits. To prevent turbine trip during spurious operation of the HPCI pump, the reactor protection system includes instrumentation and logic to sense high water level and automatically trip the HPCI pump prior to reaching the turbine trip setpoint. This paper describes an analysis that was performed to determine if existing reactor vessel water level trip instrumentation, logic and setpoints result in a high probability that the HPCI pump will trip prior to actuation of the turbine trip. Using nominal values for the initial water level and for the HPCI pump and turbine trip setpoints, and using the probability distribution functions for measurement uncertainty in these setpoints, a Monte Carlo simulation was employed to determine probabilities of successfully tripping the HPCI pump prior to tripping of the turbine. The results of the analysis established that the existing setpoints, instrumentation and logic would be expected to reliably prevent a trip of the main turbine. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Pitch angle distributions of low-energy ions in the near-earth magnetosphere

Energetic ion composition data acquired by satellite have been used to study the characteristics of ion pitch angle distributions in the near-earth magnetosphere. Both H(+) and O(+) ions below 1 keV were most frequently observed to have bidirectional field-aligned or conical pitch angle distributions inside L of about 6, with the exception of highly trapped H(+) very near the magnetic equator. The occurrence probability distributions of counterstreaming ions (CSI) and bidirectional conics in magnetic local time and L shell space suggest that the observed CSI were formed near the postmidnight sector and subsequently drifted eastward, and that ions close to the field-aligned direction were probably lost due to charge exchange with atmospheric hydrogen in the course of their eastward drift. In the prenoon sector, conical distributions dominated. Bidirectional ions were vary rarely observed in the afternoon sector, presumably because their drift paths crossed the magnetopause into the dayside magnetosheath.

Sagawa, E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Weibull Distribution From Interval Inspection Data

Most likely failure sequence assumed. Memorandum discusses application of Weibull distribution to statistics of failures of turbopump blades. Is generalization of well known exponential random probability distribution and useful in describing component-failure modes including aging effects. Parameters found from experimental data by method of maximum likelihood.

Rheinfurth, Mario H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Gravitational microlensing of high-redshift supernovae by compact objects

An analysis of the effect of microlensing by a cosmologically dominant density of compact objects is performed, using high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia's) as probes. The compact objects are modeled as a three-dimensional distribution of point masses, and Monte Carlo simulations are done to calculate the resulting amplification probability distributions for several column densities and cosmologies. By combining these distributions with the intrinsic SN Ia luminosity function and comparing with the results for a perfectly smooth universe, estimates are made of the number of supernovae that would need to be observed to confirm or rule out this lensing scenario. It is found that about 1000 SN Ia's with redshifts of z = 1 would be needed to perform this test, which is beyond what current searches can hope to accomplish. Observations of many fewer high-redshift supernovae, used merely as standard candles, appears a promising way of distinguishing between different cosmological models.

Rauch, Kevin P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Iterative Focusing - Part 1

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces - Part 2

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Normality of Monte Carlo criticality eigenfunction decomposition coefficients

A proof is presented, which shows that after a single Monte Carlo (MC) neutron transport power method iteration without normalization, the coefficients of an eigenfunction decomposition of the fission source density are normally distributed when using analog or implicit capture MC. Using a Pearson correlation coefficient test, the proof is corroborated by results from a uniform slab reactor problem, and those results also suggest that the coefficients are normally distributed with normalization. The proof and numerical test results support the application of earlier work on the convergence of eigenfunctions under stochastic operators. Knowledge of the Gaussian shape of decomposition coefficients allows researchers to determine an appropriate level of confidence in the distribution of fission sites taken from a MC simulation. This knowledge of the shape of the probability distributions of decomposition coefficients encourages the creation of new predictive convergence diagnostics. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Periodically distributed objects with quasicrystalline diffraction pattern

It is possible to construct fully periodically distributed objects with a diffraction pattern identical to the one obtained for quasicrystals. These objects are probability distributions of distances obtained in the statistical approach to aperiodic structures distributed periodically. The diffraction patterns have been derived by using a two-mode Fourier transform—a very powerful method not used in classical crystallography. It is shown that if scaling is present in the structure, this two-mode Fourier transform can be reduced to a regular Fourier transform with appropriately rescaled scattering vectors and added phases. Detailed case studies for model sets 1D Fibonacci chain and 2D Penrose tiling are discussed. Finally, it is shown that crystalline, quasicrystalline, and approximant structures can be treated in the same way.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2016

Simulation studies of substrate recognition by the exocellulase CelF from Clostridium cellulolyticum

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were used to study substrate recognition by the family 48 exocellulase CelF from Clostridium cellulolyticum. It was hypothesized that residues around the entrance of the active site tunnel of this enzyme might serve to recognize and bind the substrate through an affinity for the cellulose monomer repeat unit, ..beta..-d-glucopyranose. Simulations were conducted of the catalytic domain of this enzyme surrounded by a concentrated solution of ..beta..-d-glucopyranose, and the full three-dimensional probability distribution for finding sugar molecules adjacent to the enzyme was calculated from the trajectory. A significant probability of finding the sugar stacked against the planar faces of Trp 310 and Trp 312 at the entrance of the active site tunnel was observed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Review of Recent Developments in the Random-Field Ising Model

A lot of progress has been made recently in our understanding of the random-field Ising model thanks to large-scale numerical simulations. In particular, it has been shown that, contrary to previous statements: the critical exponents for different probability distributions of the random fields and for diluted antiferromagnets in a field are the same. Therefore, critical universality, which is a perturbative renormalization-group prediction, holds beyond the validity regime of perturbation theory. Most notably, dimensional reduction is restored at five dimensions, i.e., the exponents of the random-field Ising model at five dimensions and those of the pure Ising ferromagnet at three dimensions are the same.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistical modelling of discharge behavior of atmospheric pressure dielectric barrier discharge

In this work, stochastic behavior of atmospheric pressure dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) has been investigated. The experiment is performed in a DBD reactor consisting of a pair of stainless steel parallel plate electrodes powered by a 50 Hz ac high voltage source. Current pulse amplitude distributions for different space gaps and the time separation between consecutive current pulses are studied. A probability distribution function is proposed to predict the experimental distribution function for the current pulse amplitudes and the occurrence of the transition regime of the pulse distribution. Breakdown voltage at different positions on the dielectric surface is suggested to be stochastic in nature. The simulated results based on the proposed distribution function agreed well with the experimental results and able to predict the regime of transition voltage. This model would be useful for the understanding of stochastic behaviors of DBD and the design of DBD device for effective operation and applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the determination of the crystal-vapor surface free energy, and why a Gaussian expression can be accurate for a system far from Gaussian

The crystal-vapor surface free energy γ is an important physical parameter governing physical processes, such as wetting and adhesion. We explore exact and approximate routes to calculate γ based on cleaving an intact crystal into non-interacting sub-systems with crystal-vapor interfaces. We do this by turning off the interactions, ΔV, between the sub-systems. Using the soft-core scheme for turning off ΔV, we find that the free energy varies smoothly with the coupling parameter λ, and a single thermodynamic integration yields the exact γ. We generate another exact method, and a cumulant expansion for γ by expressing the surface free energy in terms of an average of e{sup −βΔV} in the intact crystal. The second cumulant, or Gaussian approximation for γ is surprisingly accurate in most situations, even though we find that the underlying probability distribution for ΔV is clearly not Gaussian. We account for this fact by developing a non-Gaussian theory for γ and find that the difference between the non-Gaussian and Gaussian expressions for γ consist of terms that are negligible in many situations. Exact and approximate methods are applied to the (111) surface of a Lennard-Jones crystal and are also tested for more complex molecular solids, the surface of octane and nonadecane. Alkane surfaces were chosen for study because their crystal-vapor surface free energy has been of particular interest for understanding surface freezing in these systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2012

VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF A SUPERNOVA-DRIVEN TURBULENT, MAGNETIZED INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM

Stellar feedback drives the circulation of matter from the disk to the halo of galaxies. We perform three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a vertical column of the interstellar medium with initial conditions typical of the solar circle in which supernovae drive turbulence and determine the vertical stratification of the medium. The simulations were run using a stable, positivity-preserving scheme for ideal MHD implemented in the FLASH code. We find that the majority ( Almost-Equal-To 90%) of the mass is contained in thermally stable temperature regimes of cold molecular and atomic gas at T < 200 K or warm atomic and ionized gas at 5000 K < T < 10{sup 4.2} K, with strong peaks in probability distribution functions of temperature in both the cold and warm regimes. The 200-10{sup 4.2} K gas fills 50%-60% of the volume near the plane, with hotter gas associated with supernova remnants (30%-40%) and cold clouds (<10%) embedded within. At |z| {approx} 1-2 kpc, transition-temperature (10{sup 5} K) gas accounts for most of the mass and volume, while hot gas dominates at |z| > 3 kpc. The magnetic field in our models has no significant impact on the scale heights of gas in each temperature regime; the magnetic tension force is approximately equal to and opposite the magnetic pressure, so the addition of the field does not significantly affect the vertical support of the gas. The addition of a magnetic field does reduce the fraction of gas in the cold (<200 K) regime with a corresponding increase in the fraction of warm ({approx}10{sup 4} K) gas. However, our models lack rotational shear and thus have no large-scale dynamo, which reduces the role of the field in the models compared to reality. The supernovae drive oscillations in the vertical distribution of halo gas, with the period of the oscillations ranging from Almost-Equal-To 30 Myr in the T < 200 K gas to {approx}100 Myr in the 10{sup 6} K gas, in line with predictions by Walters and Cox.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

LENSING NOISE IN MILLIMETER-WAVE GALAXY CLUSTER SURVEYS

We study the effects of gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters of the background of dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB), and examine the implications for Sunyaev-Zel'dovich-based (SZ) galaxy cluster surveys. At the locations of galaxy clusters, gravitational lensing modifies the probability distribution of the background flux of the DSFGs as well as the CMB. We find that, in the case of a single-frequency 150 GHz survey, lensing of DSFGs leads both to a slight increase ({approx}10%) in detected cluster number counts (due to a {approx}50% increase in the variance of the DSFG background, and hence an increased Eddington bias) and a rare (occurring in {approx}2% of clusters) 'filling-in' of SZ cluster signals by bright strongly lensed background sources. Lensing of the CMB leads to a {approx}55% reduction in CMB power at the location of massive galaxy clusters in a spatially matched single-frequency filter, leading to a net decrease in detected cluster number counts. We find that the increase in DSFG power and decrease in CMB power due to lensing at cluster locations largely cancel, such that the net effect on cluster number counts for current SZ surveys is subdominant to Poisson errors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗