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DOE OSTI2025

Huge ensembles – Part 2: Properties of a huge ensemble of hindcasts generated with spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. In Part 1, we created an ensemble based on spherical Fourier neural operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires orders-of-magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. HENS has two primary applications: (1) as a large dataset with which to study the statistics and drivers of extreme weather and (2) as a weather forecasting system. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4σ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS increases the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

DOE OSTI2021

OSSOS. XXI. Collision Probabilities in the Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt

Here, we present results on the intrinsic collision probabilities, P {sub I}, and range of collision speeds, V {sub I}, as a function of the heliocentric distance, r, in the trans-Neptunian region. The collision speed is one of the parameters that serves as a proxy for a collisional outcome (e.g., disruption and scattering of fragments, or formation of a crater, as both processes are related to the impact energy). We utilize an improved and debiased model of the trans-Neptunian object (TNO) region from the “Outer Solar System Origins Survey” (OSSOS). It provides a well-defined model of TNO orbital distribution, based on multiple opposition observations of more than 1000 bodies. We compute collisional probabilities for the OSSOS models of the main classical, resonant, detached+outer, and scattering TNO populations. The intrinsic collision probabilities and collision speeds are computed using Öpik’s approach, as revised and modified by Wetherill for noncircular and inclined orbits. The calculations are carried out for each of the dynamical TNO groups, allowing for inter-population collisions as well as collisions within each TNO population, resulting in 28 combinations in total. Our results indicate that collisions in the trans-Neptunian region are possible over a wide range in (r, V {sub I}) phase space. Although collisions are calculated to happen within r ∼ 20–200 au and V {sub I} ∼ 0.1 km s{sup −1} to as high as V {sub I} ∼ 9 km s{sup −1}, most of the collisions are likely to happen at low relative velocities V {sub I} < 1 km s{sup −1} and are dominated by the main classical belt.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stellar angular momentum distribution linked to galaxy morphology

ABSTRACT We study the spatially resolved stellar specific angular momentum j* in a high-quality sample of 24 Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area galaxies covering a broad range of visual morphology, accounting for stellar velocity and velocity dispersion. The shape of the spaxelwise probability density function of normalized s = j*/j*mean, PDF(s), deviates significantly from the near-universal initial distribution expected of baryons in a dark matter halo and can be explained by the expected baryonic effects in galaxy formation that remove and redistribute angular momentum. Further we find that the observed shape of the PDF(s) correlates significantly with photometric morphology, where late-type galaxies have a PDF(s) that is similar to a normal distribution, whereas early types have a strongly skewed PDF(s) resulting from an excess of low-angular momentum material. Galaxies that are known to host pseudo-bulges (bulge Sérsic index nb < 2.2) tend to have less skewed bulge PDF(s), with skewness (b1rb) ≲ 0.8. The PDF(s) encodes both kinematic and photometric information and appears to be a robust tracer of morphology. Its use is motivated by the desire to move away from traditional component-based classifications which are subject to observer bias, to classification on a galaxy’s fundamental (stellar mass and angular momentum) properties. In future, PDF(s) may also be useful as a kinematic decomposition tool.

Sweet, Sarah M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Joint Management and Optimization of Residential Natural Gas and Electricity Distribution Networks Coupled via Fuel Cells

The interesting properties of natural gas as well as the growing electric power demand worldwide have led to increasing attention to natural-gas-based distributed generation applications in electric distribution systems. This paper goes over the interdependency between a residential natural gas network and an electric distribution network that are coupled via fuel cells. The modeling of the gas network is introduced first, and then the algorithm for gas flow study is presented. The optimal placement and sizing of fuel cell based distributed generation systems are formulated to minimize the losses in both the gas and electric distribution networks, subject to their model constraints. In addition to this, in order to capture the probabilistic nature of the optimization problem under study, the K-means clustering algorithm is applied to the gas and electricity demands to determine hourly load states and their corresponding probabilities. Furthermore, simulation studies are carried out on an integrated system consisting of the IEEE 69-bus distribution feeder and a radial 27-node natural gas network to verify the developed optimization model and the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing the Internal Cell Structure of the Radon Monitor Based on Electrostatic Collection Method

Abstract As Rn-222 decays, an alpha particle is emitted and the residual polonium nucleus recoils in the opposite direction. At the end of the recoil path, 88% of the polonium atoms have a positive charge and 12% are neutral. The electric potential distribution in the 60 ml hemispherical internal cell of the radon monitor based on electrostatic collection is studied for reducing the combined probability of the positively charged Po-218 and the OH− produced by the ionization of water vapour in the air. The COMSOL software is used to simulate the electric potential distribution in the internal cell of the radon monitor based on the electrostatic collection method at 27°C, a pressure of 0.1 Mpa. For improving the collection efficiency of Po-218 ions, the average collection time along vertical and oblique lines is calculated when the upper surface of the internal cell is plastic, uncharged metal and charged metal, respectively. Assuming that the gas in the internal cell is uniformly distributed, the results show that if the upper surface of the hemispherical internal cell is plastic or uncharged metal, the electric potential formed in the internal cell is more uniform, and it is beneficial to reduce the total collection time of the positively charged Po-218 ions, thereby improving collection efficiency. The simulation results can be used as an effective reference for optimizing the design of the internal cell structure of the radon monitor based on electrostatic collection method.

Fan, Zhongkai (ORCID:0000000181247459)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flow and thermal modelling of the argon volume in the DarkSide-20k TPC

The DarkSide-20k dark matter experiment, currently under construction at LNGS, features a dual-phase time projection chamber (TPC) with a ∼ 50 t argon target from an underground well. At this scale, it is crucial to optimise the argon flow pattern for efficient target purification and for fast distribution of internal gaseous calibration sources with lifetimes of the order of hours. To this end, we have performed computational fluid dynamics simulations and heat transfer calculations. The residence time distribution shows that the detector is well-mixed on time-scales of the turnover time (∼ 40 d). Notably, simulations show that despite a two-order-of-magnitude difference between the turnover time and the half-life of 83m Kr of 1.83 h, source atoms have the highest probability to reach the centre of the TPC 13 min after their injection, allowing for a homogeneous distribution before undergoing radioactive decay. We further analyse the thermal aspects of dual-phase operation and define the requirements for the formation of a stable gas pocket on top of the liquid. We find a best-estimate value for the heat transfer rate at the liquid-gas interface of 62 W with an upper limit of 144 W and a minimum gas pocket inlet temperature of 89 K to avoid condensation on the acrylic anode. This study also informs the placement of liquid inlets and outlets in the TPC. The presented techniques are widely applicable to other large-scale, noble-liquid detectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗

DOE OSTI2021

Total absorption spectroscopy of the β decay of 101,102 Zr and 109 Tc

The β decay of 101,102 Zr and 109 Tc was studied using the technique of total absorption spectroscopy. The experiment was performed at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory using the Summing NaI(Tl) (SuN) detector in the first-ever application of total absorption spectroscopy with a fast beam produced via projectile fragmentation. The β -decay feeding intensity and Gamow-Teller transition strength distributions were extracted for these three decays. The extracted distributions were compared to three different quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) models based on different mean-field potentials. A comparison with calculations from one of the QRPA models was performed to learn about the ground-state shape of the parent nucleus. For 101 Zr and 102 Zr, calculations assuming a pure shape configuration (oblate or prolate) were not able to reproduce the extracted distributions. These results may indicate that some type of mixture between oblate and prolate shapes is necessary to reproduce the extracted distributions. For 109 Tc, a comparison of the extracted distributions with QRPA calculations suggests a dominant oblate configuration. The other two QRPA models are commonly used to provide β-decay properties in r-process network calculations. This work shows the importance of making comparisons between the experimental and theoretical β-decay distributions, rather than just half-lives and β-delayed neutron emission probabilities, as close to the r-process path as possible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

No Evidence for Orbital Clustering in the Extreme Trans-Neptunian Objects

The apparent clustering in longitude of perihelion piv and ascending node Ω of extreme trans-Neptunian objects (ETNOs) has been attributed to the gravitational effects of an unseen 5–10 Earth-mass planet in the outer solar system. To investigate how selection bias may contribute to this clustering, we consider 14 ETNOs discovered by the Dark Energy Survey, the Outer Solar System Origins Survey, and the survey of Sheppard and Trujillo. Using each survey's published pointing history, depth, and TNO tracking selections, we calculate the joint probability that these objects are consistent with an underlying parent population with uniform distributions in $\bar{w}$ and Ω. We find that the mean scaled longitude of perihelion and orbital poles of the detected ETNOs are consistent with a uniform population at a level between 17% and 94% and thus conclude that this sample provides no evidence for angular clustering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elastic dijet production in electron scattering on a longitudinally polarized proton at small x : A portal to orbital angular momentum distributions

We calculate the elastic production of dijets from electron collisions with a longitudinally polarized proton target at small values of the Bjorken x variable. Building on the pioneering proposals of Hatta [Gluon orbital angular momentum at small- x , .] and Bhattacharya [Signature of the gluon orbital angular momentum, ., Probing the quark orbital angular momentum at electron-ion colliders using exclusive π 0 production, ., and Exploring orbital angular momentum and spin-orbit correlation for gluons at the Electron-Ion Collider, .] for measuring the quark and gluon orbital angular momentum (OAM) distributions, our focus is on both the longitudinal double spin asymmetry (DSA) and longitudinal single spin asymmetry (SSA). We compute the numerators of these asymmetries in the small- x formalism of the light-cone operator treatment. Utilizing the small- x expressions for the OAM distributions derived earlier in Kovchegov and Manley [Orbital angular momentum at small x revisited, .], we demonstrate that the DSA provides a robust probe for both the quark and gluon OAM distributions within the proton. In contrast, we find that while the SSA is also sensitive to the OAM distributions, extraction of the latter from the SSA would require new developments in small- x theory and phenomenology, and is probably not feasible at this point in time. These findings highlight the potential of DSA measurements in elastic dijet production at the future Electron-Ion Collider to provide the first-ever direct access to the quark and gluon OAM distributions at small x , paving the way for new insights into the proton spin puzzle. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Kovchegov, Yuri V. (ORCID:0000000169909173)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling q 95 windows for the suppression of edge localized modes by resonant magnetic perturbations in the DIII-D tokamak

A toroidal asymptotic matching model of the response of a tokamak plasma to a static resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) is used to simulate the n = 3 RMP-induced edge-localized-mode-suppression windows in q 95 that are evident when the plasma current is slowly ramped in DIII-D discharge #145380. All quantities employed in the simulation are derived from experimental measurements, apart from the neutral particle data. Three cases are considered. In the first case, the natural frequencies of tearing modes resonant in the plasma are determined by the ion flows at the corresponding resonant surfaces, which is the prediction of nonlinear tearing mode theory. In the second case, the natural frequencies are determined by the local E x B velocities at the resonant surfaces. In the third case, the natural frequencies are determined by the electron flows at the resonant surfaces, which is the prediction of linear tearing mode theory. The second case gives the best agreement between the simulations and the experimental observations. The first and third cases only lead to partial agreement between the simulations and the observations. In the first case, the lack of complete agreement may be a consequence of using an inaccurate assumption for the neutral particle distribution in the pedestal. In the third case, the lack of complete agreement is probably due to the fact that the response of a tokamak plasma to an RMP is not accurately described by linear tearing mode theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Targeted engineering of camelina and pennycress seeds for ultrahigh accumulation of acetyl-TAG

Acetyl-TAG (3-acetyl-1,2-diacylglycerol), unique triacylglycerols (TAG) possessing an acetate group at the sn -3 position, exhibit valuable properties, such as reduced viscosity and freezing points. Previous attempts to engineer acetyl-TAG production in oilseed crops did not achieve the high levels found in naturally producing Euonymus seeds. Here, we demonstrate the successful generation of camelina and pennycress transgenic lines accumulating nearly pure acetyl-TAG at 93 mol% and 98 mol%, respectively. These ultrahigh acetyl-TAG synthesizing lines were created using gene-edited FATTY ACID ELONGASE1 ( FAE1 ) mutant lines as an improved genetic background to increase levels of acetyl-CoA available for acetyl-TAG synthesis mediated by the expression of EfDAcT, a high-activity diacylglycerol acetyltransferase isolated from Euonymus fortunei . Combining EfDAcT expression with suppression of the competing TAG-synthesizing enzyme DGAT1 further enhanced acetyl-TAG accumulation. These ultrahigh levels of acetyl-TAG exceed those in earlier engineered oilseeds and are equivalent or greater than those in Euonymus seeds. Imaging of lipid localization in transgenic seeds revealed that the low amounts of residual TAG were mostly confined to the embryonic axis. Similar spatial distributions of specific TAG and acetyl-TAG molecular species, as well as their probable diacylglycerol (DAG) precursors, provide additional evidence that acetyl-TAG and TAG are both synthesized from the same tissue-specific DAG pools. Remarkably, this ultrahigh production of acetyl-TAG in transgenic seeds exhibited minimal negative effects on seed properties, highlighting the potential for production of designer oils required for economical biofuel industries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗