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At least 631 records · Page 35

Interpretation of Lyman opacity measurements in JET with the ITER-like wall using a particle balance approach

Recent measurements of the Ly β /D α ratio in the JET ITER-like wall (ILW) divertor show comparatively more pronounced Ly β reabsorption relative to previous results in JET with the carbon wall (JET-C). At the outer horizontal target ion current rollover point a Ly β reabsorption rate of 60% is measured, increasing to 80% in more pronounced detachment, implying a Ly α reabsorption rate of 90%–98%. The radially resolved Ly β /D α measurements are used to constrain Lyman opacity corrections to atomic rate coefficients using the population escape factor technique in order to capture the local changes to the excited state population structure in the high Lyman opacity regions at and outboard of the outer strike point. To check the self-consistency of the Lyman opacity measurements, a detailed spectroscopic interpretation of the outer divertor particle balance is presented, in which the impact of opacity corrections to the Ly α inverse photon efficiency coefficients is assessed. A five-fold deficit in the estimated D + source rate obtained with optically thin plasma assumptions is reconciled once the opacity corrections are factored into the Ly α photon rate to ionization rate conversion. The experiment results are reproduced in EDGE2D-EIRENE density scan simulations in which an imposed ad hoc Lyman reabsorption rate is recovered spectroscopically using synthetic measurements, and a similar shortfall in the D + source rate estimates is reconciled using Lyman opacity corrected atomic data. The model limitations prevent a more detailed self-consistent analysis of the Lyman opacity impact on divertor parameters and detachment evolution, and hence motivate renewed efforts to re-establish routine exploitation of the photon transport modelling capabilities in the EIRENE code package. Lyman opacity corrections to atomic data coefficients are necessary for spectroscopic interpretation of the JET-ILW divertor plasma, with significant influence on the divertor plasma also a likely consequence of the presence of strong Ly α reabsorption. Finally, a scan of auxiliary heating powers spanning L-mode and H-mode conditions reveals a strong correlation of the measured Ly β opacity with the outer target temperature, suggesting new possibilities for using Lyman opacity measurements in establishing detachment scalings.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Grandparent Inference from Genetic Data: The Potential for Parentage-Based Tagging Programs to Identify Offspring of Hatchery Strays

Abstract Fisheries managers routinely use hatcheries to increase angling opportunity. Many hatcheries operate as segregated programs where hatchery-origin fish are not intended to spawn with natural-origin conspecifics in order to prevent potential negative effects on the natural-origin population. Currently available techniques to monitor the frequency with which hatchery-origin strays successfully spawn in the wild rely on either genetic differentiation between the hatchery- and natural-origin fish or extensive sampling of fish on the spawning grounds. We present a method to infer grandparent–grandchild trios by using only genotypes from two putative grandparents and one putative grandchild. We developed estimators of false-positive and false-negative error rates and showed that genetic panels containing 500–700 single-nucleotide polymorphisms or 200–300 microhaplotypes are expected to allow application of this technique for monitoring segregated hatchery programs. We discuss the ease with which this technique can be implemented by pre-existing parentage-based tagging programs and provide an R package that applies the method.

Delomas, Thomas A. (ORCID:000000015154759X)↗

Total Blood Mercury Predicts Methylmercury Exposure in Fish and Shellfish Consumers

Abstract Many studies evaluating methylmercury (MeHg) toxicity rely on whole blood total mercury (THg) measurements to estimate MeHg exposure. However, whole blood THg includes other forms of mercury (Hg), such as inorganic Hg, which have different exposure sources and toxicological effects than MeHg. Therefore, estimating the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio is critical to predicting MeHg exposure and, subsequently, efforts to establish an exposure–response relationship for use in risk assessment. A large, representative dataset (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2016) was used to determine the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio among (a) self-reported fish and shellfish consumers, ≥ 15 years of age (the “full adult” population ( N = 5268 training dataset; N = 2336 test dataset)) and (b) female fish and shellfish consumers, 15–44 years of age (the “women of reproductive age” population ( N = 1285 training dataset; N = 560 test dataset)). Unadjusted and adjusted linear and spline models with direct measurements for both THg and MeHg were evaluated. The mean whole blood MeHg/THg ratio was 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.75). This ratio was significantly higher among those with higher THg concentrations. All models exhibited excellent fit (adjusted R 2 from 0.957 to 0.982). Performance was slightly improved in spline versus linear models. For the full adult population and women of reproductive age, the unadjusted spline model predicted whole blood MeHg concentrations of 5.65 µg/L and 5.55 µg/L, respectively, when the THg concentration was 5.80 µg/L. These results suggest that whole blood THg is a good predictor of whole blood MeHg among fish and shellfish consumers.

Wells, Ellen M.↗

Developing occupant archetypes within urban low-income housing: A case study in Mumbai, India

Rapid urbanization pressure and poverty have created a push for affordable housing within the global south. The design of affordable housing can have consequences on the thermal (dis)comfort and behaviour of the occupants, hence requiring an occupant-centric approach to ensure sustainability. This paper investigates occupant behaviour within the urban poor households of Mumbai, India and its impact on their thermal comfort and energy use. This study is a first-of-its-kind attempt to explore the socio-demographic characteristics and energy-related behaviour of low-income occupants within Indian context. Three occupant archetypes, Indifferent Consumers; Considerate Savers; and Conscious Conventionals, were identified from the behavioural and psychographic characteristics gathered through a transverse field survey. A two-step clustering approach was adopted for occupant segmentation that highlighted considerable diversity in occupants’ adaptation measures, energy knowledge, energy habits, and their pro-environmental behaviour within similar socio-economic group. Building energy simulation of the representative archetype behaviour estimated up to 37% variations for air-conditioned and up to 8% variation for fan-assisted naturally ventilated housing units during peak summer months. The results from this study establish the significance of occupant factors in shaping energy demand and thermal comfort within low-income housing and pave way for developing occupant-centric building design strategies to serve this marginalized population. The developed low-income occupant archetypes would be useful for architects and energy modelers to generate realistic energy use profiles and improve building performance simulation results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Electricity consumption variation versus economic structure during COVID-19 on metropolitan statistical areas in the US

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in changes in productivity and daily life patterns, and as a result electricity consumption (EC) has also shifted. In this paper, we construct estimates of EC changes at the metropolitan level across the continental U.S., including total EC and residential EC during the initial two months of the pandemic. The total and residential data on the state level were broken down into the county level, and then metropolitan level EC estimates were aggregated from the counties included in each metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This work shows that the reduction in total EC is related to the shares of certain industries in an MSA, whereas regardless of the incidence level or economic structure, the residential sector shows a trend of increasing EC across the continental U.S. Since the MSAs account for 86% of the total population and 87% of the total EC of the continental U.S., the analytical result in this paper can provide important guidelines for future social-economic crises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Voltage-dependent excitation dynamics in UV-absorbing organic photovoltaics with efficient charge transfer exciton emission

Intermolecular charge-transfer excitons play a central role in determining the performance of organic solar cells as their voltage-dependent formation, dissociation, and recombination dynamics contribute to photocurrent generation, radiative/nonradiative voltage losses, and photovoltaic fill factor. Here, we explore the properties of brightly-emitting wide energy gap (>2 eV) charge transfer excitons by measuring the voltage-dependent photoluminescence, photocurrent, and ultrafast pump–probe transient absorption spectra of organic solar cells employing five UV-absorbing donor molecules that differ only by the length of the oligophenylene or acene group at their core. We find that organic solar cells with a strong correlation between their voltage-dependent photocurrent and charge-transfer exciton photoluminescence have low photovoltaic fill factors as they require voltage to facilitate efficient charge-transfer exciton dissociation. In contrast, solar cells that are efficient can readily generate charges without an applied field and have a separate population of tightly-bound charge-transfer excitons that are responsible for emission. Furthermore, considering that the sum of all excitation loss rates (i.e., recombination and charge extraction) must be equal to the excitation generation rate in the steady state, these voltage-dependent data allow us to solve for the voltage-dependent fate of all excitations in the solar cells and estimate upper and lower bounds for geminate and non-geminate recombination, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Spectroscopy of 30 P and the abundance of 29 Si in presolar grains

The astrophysical 29 Si(p,γ) reaction is expected to play a key role in determining the final 29 Si yields ejected in nova explosions. Such yields are used to accurately identify the stellar origins of meteoritic stardust and recently, distinctive silicon isotopic ratios have been extracted from a number of presolar grains. Here, the light-ion 28 Si( 3 He,p) fusion-evaporation reaction was used to populate low-spin proton-unbound excited states in the nucleus 30 P that govern the rate of the astrophysical 29 Si(p,γ) reaction. In particular, γ decays were observed from resonances up to E r = 500keV, and key resonances at 217 and 315 keV have now been identified as 2 + and 2¯ levels, respectively. Here, the present paper provides the first estimate of the 217-keV resonance strength and indicates that the strength of the 315-keV resonance, which dominates the rate of the 29 Si(p,γ) reaction over the entire peak temperature range of oxygen-neon novae, is higher than previously expected. As such, the abundance of 29 Si ejected during nova explosions is likely to be less than that predicted by the most recent theoretical models.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

Active virus-host interactions at sub-freezing temperatures in Arctic peat soil

Abstract Background Winter carbon loss in northern ecosystems is estimated to be greater than the average growing season carbon uptake and is primarily driven by microbial decomposers. Viruses modulate microbial carbon cycling via induced mortality and metabolic controls, but it is unknown whether viruses are active under winter conditions (anoxic and sub-freezing temperatures). Results We used stable isotope probing (SIP) targeted metagenomics to reveal the genomic potential of active soil microbial populations under simulated winter conditions, with an emphasis on viruses and virus-host dynamics. Arctic peat soils from the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research site in Alaska were incubated under sub-freezing anoxic conditions with H 2 18 O or natural abundance water for 184 and 370 days. We sequenced 23 SIP-metagenomes and measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) efflux throughout the experiment. We identified 46 bacterial populations (spanning 9 phyla) and 243 viral populations that actively took up 18 O in soil and respired CO 2 throughout the incubation. Active bacterial populations represented only a small portion of the detected microbial community and were capable of fermentation and organic matter degradation. In contrast, active viral populations represented a large portion of the detected viral community and one third were linked to active bacterial populations. We identified 86 auxiliary metabolic genes and other environmentally relevant genes. The majority of these genes were carried by active viral populations and had diverse functions such as carbon utilization and scavenging that could provide their host with a fitness advantage for utilizing much-needed carbon sources or acquiring essential nutrients. Conclusions Overall, there was a stark difference in the identity and function of the active bacterial and viral community compared to the unlabeled community that would have been overlooked with a non-targeted standard metagenomic analysis. Our results illustrate that substantial active virus-host interactions occur in sub-freezing anoxic conditions and highlight viruses as a major community-structuring agent that likely modulates carbon loss in peat soils during winter, which may be pivotal for understanding the future fate of arctic soils' vast carbon stocks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Systematically Measuring Ultra-diffuse Galaxies (SMUDGes). V. The Complete SMUDGes Catalog and the Nature of Ultradiffuse Galaxies

We present the completed catalog of ultradiffuse galaxy (UDG) candidates (7070 objects) from our search of the DR9 Legacy Survey images, including distance and total mass estimates for 1529 and 1436 galaxies, respectively, that we provide and describe in detail. From the sample with estimated distances, we obtain a sample of 585 UDGs (μ 0, g ≥ 24 mag arcsec –2 and r e ≥ 1.5 kpc) over 20,000 square degrees of sky in various environments. We conclude that UDGs in our sample are limited to 10 10 ≲ M h /M ⊙ ≲ 10 11.5 and are on average a factor of 1.5–7 deficient in stars relative to the general population of galaxies of the same total mass. That factor increases with increasing galaxy size and mass up to a factor of ~10 when the total mass of the UDG increases beyond M h = 10 11 M ⊙ . We do not find evidence that this factor has a dependence on the UDGs large-scale environment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Water structure and electric fields at the interface of oil droplets

Interfacial water exhibits rich and complex behaviour, playing an important part in chemistry, biology, geology and engineering. However, there is still much debate on the fundamental properties of water at hydrophobic interfaces, such as orientational ordering, the concentration of hydronium and hydroxide, improper hydrogen bonds and the presence of large electric fields. This controversy arises from the challenges in measuring interfacial systems, even with the most advanced experimental techniques and theoretical approaches available. Here we report on an in-solution, interface-selective Raman spectroscopy method using multivariate curve resolution to probe hexadecane-in-water emulsions, aided by a monomer-field theoretical model for Raman spectroscopy. Our results indicate that oil-water emulsion interfaces can exhibit reduced tetrahedral order and weaker hydrogen bonding, along with a substantial population of free hydroxyl groups that experience about 95 cm -1 redshift in their stretching mode compared with planar oil-water interfaces. Given the known electrostatic zeta potential characteristic of oil droplets, we propose the existence of a strong electric field (about 50-90 MV cm -1 ) emanating from the oil phase. This field is inferred indirectly but supported by control experiments and theoretical estimates. These observations are either absent or opposite in the molecular hydrophobic interface formed by small solutes or at planar oil-water interfaces. Instead, water structural disorder and enhanced electric fields emerge as unique features of the mesoscale interface in oil-water emulsions, potentially contributing to the accelerated chemical reactivity observed at hydrophobic-water interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental validation of an integrated modelling approach to neutron emission studies at JET

An integrated modelling methodology for the calculation of realistic plasma neutron sources for the JET tokamak has been developed. The computational chain comprises TRANSP plasma transport and DRESS neutron spectrum calculations, and their coupling to the MCNP neutron transport code, bridging plasma physics and neutronics. Here, we apply the developed methodology to the analysis of neutron emission properties of deuterium and helium plasmas at JET, and validate individual modelling steps against neutron diagnostic measurements. Two types of JET discharges are modelled—baseline-like and three-ion radio-frequency scenarios—due to their diversity in plasma heating, characteristics of the induced fast ion population, and the imprint of these on neutron emission properties. The neutron emission modelling results are quantitatively compared to the total neutron yield from fission chambers, neutron emissivity profiles from the neutron camera, neutron spectra from the time-of-flight spectrometer, and neutron activation measurements. The agreement between measured and calculated quantities is found to be satisfactory for all four diagnostic systems within the estimated experimental and computational uncertainties. Additionally, the effect of neutrons not originating from the dominating D(D, n) 3 He reactions is studied through modelling of triton burnup DT neutrons, and, in mixed D- 3 He plasmas, neutrons produced in the 9 Be(D, nγ) 10 B reaction on impurities. It is found that these reactions can contribute up to several percent to the total neutron yield and dominate the neutron activation of samples. Finally, the effect of MeV-range fast ions on the neutron activation of 115 In and 27 Al samples is measured and computationally validated.

integrated modelling↗

SOLEDGE3X full vessel plasma boundary simulations of ITER non-active phase plasmas

The onset of detachment in the ITER machine is analyzed in this work through the help of 2D-axisymmetric boundary plasma simulations with the SOLEDGE3X-EIRENE code, which features a numerical domain for the plasma solver extending up to the first wall. The plasma boundary is computed in scenarios from the first non-active phase of ITER, in pure H and at 20 MW. This set of simulations is used in two aspects: first, to study the plasma detachment in the divertor, and second, the plasma conditions, fluxes, and beryllium erosion at the first wall. Here, the code results are also compared to those obtained with the well-established SOLPS-ITER code, which includes a plasma numerical domain only covering the main SOL. Results show an increase in the SOL width λ q with increasing density, and a detailed analysis is carried out, for the first time, on each of the different plasma-neutral interactions in the code’s physics model in EIRENE. The gross beryllium erosion rates of first wall panels are estimated from 2D simulations, with the aim of assessing their sensitivity to two parameters: the divertor density regime, and the presence of density shoulders in the far-SOL formed by enhanced perpendicular transport at this location. The erosion contributions from neutrals and ions are considered in each case, and the charge-exchange atoms fluxes and energy distributions are provided, highlighting the two atom populations (cold and charge-exchange).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

SPATIOTEMPORAL TRACKING OF WIDE AREA POWER OUTAGE FROM NIGHT-TIME LIGHT IMAGERY

Monitoring progress of power restoration following extreme events is essential for situational awareness about spatio-temporal distribution of populations without power and to help with response efforts. Because of the proprietary nature of restoration data, and the difficulty in obtaining power outage data from utility companies in near real-time (e.g., during hurricane Maria (2017)), this project used satellite derived nighttime lights data from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band (DNB) to (i) monitor wide area power outage and (ii) estimate impacted customers over time to assist with restoration. A discussion of the methodology and its implementation during hurricanes Maria (2017) and Eta (2020) is presented in this paper. Future work will focus on calibrating estimated customers based on light intensity and density distribution, and generation of restoration profiles for emergency response.

Kar, Bandana↗

Data from "The Influence of Climate Change on Flooding and Social Inequalities from Remnants of Hurricane Ida"

Previous research has demonstrated that tropical cyclone-related precipitation and flooding have been increased by anthropogenic global warming. Our work aims to quantify the contribution of climate change to the deadly flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Ida (2021) and its impact on human society. We developed an analysis framework that combines lessons from climate change attribution science, two-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling, and flood impact evaluation, including a social inequality index, to estimate remnants of Ida flooding and consequences responding to current (locally 1°C warmer) and future (another 1°C warmer) climate change. We find that an additional quarter to a half million people were exposed to flooding due to current and future climate change. The human influence on flood impacts was larger with deeper flood water depth (≥ 1 m) than with shallow depths. Socially vulnerable populations were found to be disproportionately more affected, and climate change exacerbates this inequality

Climate Change↗

A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗