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NASA NTRS1992

Estimating high mosquito-producing rice fields using spectral and spatial data

The cultivation of irrigated rice provides ideal larval habitat for a number of anopheline vectors of malaria throughout the world. Anopheles freeborni, a potential vector of human malaria, is associated with the nearly 240,000 hectares of irrigated rice grown annually in Northern and Central California; therefore, this species can serve as a model for the study of rice field anopheline population dynamics. Analysis of field data revealed that rice fields with early season canopy development, that are located near bloodmeal sources (i.e., pastures with livestock) were more likely to produce anopheline larvae than fields with less developed canopies located further from pastures. Remote sensing reflectance measurements of early-season canopy development and geographic information system (GIS) measurements of distanes between rice fields and pastures with livestock were combined to distinguish between high and low mosquito-producing rice fields. Using spectral and distance measures in either a discriminant or Bayesian analysis, the identification of high mosquito-producing fields was made with 85 percent accuracy nearly two months before anopheline larval populations peaked. Since omission errors were also minimized by these approaches, they could provide a new basis for directing abatement techniques for the control of malaria vectors.

Wood, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A general diagram for estimating pore size of ultrafiltration and reverse osmosis membranes

A slit sieve model has been used to develop a general correlation between the average pore size of the upstream surface of a membrane and the molecular weight of the solute which it retains by better than 80%. The pore size is determined by means of the correlation using the high retention data from an ultrafiltration (UF) or a reverse osmosis (RO) experiment. The pore population density can also be calculated from the flux data via appropriate equations.

Sarbolouki, M. N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling approaches to estimate community annoyance due to sonic booms using data from repeated surveys

In an on-going project for NASA, we are developing a modeling approach to analyze the relationship between the noise level of sonic booms from an experimental supersonic plane and the level of annoyance measured through community response surveys. The goal of the project is to obtain a quantitative relationship between noise level and annoyance that is representative for the affected population. Particular modeling challenges include multiple annoyance measurements per survey respondent and very few occurrences of annoyance overall. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stage model for the presence of high annoyance, with the first stage modeling the probability that a respondent is ever highly annoyed and the second stage a multilevel logistic regression model for high annoyance based on noise level and demographic characteristics. We use a variation of Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (Gelman and Little, 1997) to obtain an overall representative noise-annoyance curve for the population. The approach is applied to data from a NASA pilot study.

Robyn Ferg↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Approaches to Estimate Community Annoyance Due to Sonic Booms Using Data from Repeated Surveys

Robyn Ferg↗

NASA NTRS1982

Misregistration's effects on classification and proportion estimation accuracy

The estimates of crop type and acreage are undertaken in the AgRISTARS program by registering multiple date acquisitions of small subareas of LANDSAT scenes (termed segments), and applying multispectral analysis to them. An important contribution to errors in classification and acreage estimates is misregistration between multiple acquisitions. The formula used to express this relationship is given and the operations applied are so shown in diagrams. The taking of a LANDSAT feature vector and the derivation of the brightness and greeness are illustrated. It is shown that for any given sensor IFOV geometry, typical populations of fields can be derived and histograms can be plotted of the number of fields against field size according to ground truth. As a function of the resolution element, the IFOV of the sensor can draw the proportion of pure pixels in a given crop. Because the thematic mapper has a smaller resolution, the proportion of pixels that are pure in any given area will be larger.

Juday, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Variability in Galactic Cosmic Radiation- Induced DNA Damage Response in Inbred Mice Is Modulated by Genetics

In radiation biology, the ability to predict cancer risk associated with exposure to low doses of high-LET (Linear Energy Transfer) ionizing radiation remains a challenge. Epidemiological methods lack the sensitivity and power to provide detailed risk estimates for cancer and ignore individual sensitivity. We have hypothesized that DNA repair capacity is the primary factor differentiating peoples radiation sensitivity. We previously showed in immortalized human cell lines that characterizing the dose and time dependence of p53-binding protein 1 (53BP1) foci formation in the nucleus following X-rays exposure is sufficient to predict DNA repair response to any other LET in the same cell line. We now tested this hypothesis across a population of mice with different genetic background. Fibroblast cells were extracted and cultivated from 76 individual mice from 15 different strains and exposed to HZE (high (H) atomic number (Z) and energy (E) galactic cosmic ray particles) particles and X-rays. Individual radiation sensitivities were investigated by high throughput measurement of DNA repair kinetics that evaluated 53bp1 foci numbers as a surrogate for DNA double-strand breaks at various times post-irradiation. Instead of just counting foci which can be hard to distinguish for high-LET or high doses, we also took into account the track structure of high-LET particles to compute the remaining number of unrepaired tracks as a function of time post-irradiation. As expected, the percentage of unrepaired track over a 48 hours follow-up period increased with LET. In addition, repair rate was modulated by genetics, with animals from the same strain showing small variance while large rate differences were observed between strains. Radiation strain sensitivity ranking was estimated based on repair rates from exposure to each LET evaluated in this work, and ranking for high-LET correlated better with ranking from high dose of X-ray, not low dose. At the in-vivo level, drops in T-cells and B-cells number measured 24 hours after 0.1 Gy (Gray) X-ray exposure, correlated with slower DNA repair kinetic in fibroblast cells of the same strains of mice. At the genomic level, mouse genome wide association (GWA) analysis identified seven significant genetic loci on chromosomes 2, 3, 7, 10, 11, 13 and 19 with different significance depending on the LET. Interestingly, for the two highest LET, a common locus on Chromosome 10 was identified with high enrichment for DNA repair associated genes.Overall, this work suggests that repair kinetics of primary skin fibroblasts is a good surrogate marker for in-vivo radiation sensitivities in other tissues and that this response is modulated by genetics. Our study also confirms that DNA repair kinetics following high doses of X-ray can be used to predict radiation sensitivity to high-LET.

High-LET Radiation↗

NASA NTRS1982

Stellar contributions to the hard X-ray galactic ridge

The number density of serendipitous sources in galactic plane Einstein Observatory IPC fields are compared with predictions based on the intensity of the HEAO-1 A2 unresolved hrd X-ray galactic ridge emission. It is concluded that theoretically predicted X-ray source populations of luminosity 8 x 10 to the 32nd power to 3 x 10 to the 34th power ergs s have 2 KeV to 10 KeV local surface densities of less than approximately .0008 L(32) pc/2 and are unlikely to be the dominant contributors to the hard X-ray ridge. An estimate for Be/neutron star binary systems, such as X Persei, gives a 2 keV to 10 keV local surface density of approximately 26 x 10 to the -5 power L(32) pc/2. Stellar systems of low luminosity, are more likely contributors. Both RS CVn and cataclysmic variable systems contribute 43% + or - 18% of the ridge. A more sensitive measurement of the ridge's hard X-ray spectrum should reveal Fe-line emission. We speculate that dM stars are further major contributors.

Worrall, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Errors in Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) Kinetic Temperature Caused by Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Model Parameters

The vast set of near global and continuous atmospheric measurements made by the SABER instrument since 2002, including daytime and nighttime kinetic temperature (T(sub k)) from 20 to 105 km, is available to the scientific community. The temperature is retrieved from SABER measurements of the atmospheric 15 micron CO2 limb emission. This emission separates from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions in the rarefied mesosphere and thermosphere, making it necessary to consider the CO2 vibrational state non-LTE populations in the retrieval algorithm above 70 km. Those populations depend on kinetic parameters describing the rate at which energy exchange between atmospheric molecules take place, but some of these collisional rates are not well known. We consider current uncertainties in the rates of quenching of CO2 (v2 ) by N2 , O2 and O, and the CO2 (v2 ) vibrational-vibrational exchange to estimate their impact on SABER T(sub k) for different atmospheric conditions. The T(sub k) is more sensitive to the uncertainty in the latter two and their effects depend on altitude. The T(sub k) combined systematic error due to non-LTE kinetic parameters does not exceed +/- 1.5 K below 95 km and +/- 4-5 K at 100 km for most latitudes and seasons (except for polar summer) if the Tk profile does not have pronounced vertical structure. The error is +/- 3 K at 80 km, +/- 6 K at 84 km and +/- 18 K at 100 km under the less favourable polar summer conditions. For strong temperature inversion layers, the errors reach +/- 3 K at 82 km and +/- 8 K at 90 km. This particularly affects tide amplitude estimates, with errors of up to +/- 3 K.

Garcia-Comas, Maya↗

NASA NTRS2018

Exoplanet Detection Synenergy Between Gaia and the WFIRST Coronagraph

Future astrometric detections of exoplanets from the Gaia mission will augment and improve the sample of targets accessible to the Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) on WFIRST. We assessed the joint detection sensitivity of Gaia and WFIRST by modeling random planet populations around nearby (d less than 20 pc), bright (V less than 6) stars, and applying nominal detection thresholds for each mission. Our analysis suggests that only a small number of the new planet detections from Gaia will be favorable for spectroscopic characterization by WFIRST CGI: 1-3 planets, depending on the assumed planet population model. The target stars hosting gas giants detectable to both missions tend to be GK dwarfs with brightness between V = 3-5, and distances within 10 pc. While few in number, these new Gaia-detected exoplanets could be exceptionally valuable targets for WFIRST due to the ability to incorporate astrometric mass estimates into the spectral retrieval of atmospheric parameters.

Zimmerman, Neil T.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Reconstructing Magma Storage Depths for the 2018 Kilauean Eruption from melt inclusion CO2 Contents: The importance of Vapor Bubbles

The 2018 Lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano and the accompanying collapse of the summit caldera marked the most destructive phase of activity on Hawai’i in the last 200 years. The integration of petrological data extracted from lava samples collected throughout the eruption with geodetic data examining the caldera collapse event, and estimates of the co-erupted flux of SO2 from the main eruptive fissure (Fissure 8), provides an exceptional opportunity to determine the reservoir geometry and magma transport paths supplying Kīlauea’s LERZ. The forsterite contents of erupted olivines and the degree of disequilibrium with their carrier melts indicate that two distinct olivine populations were erupted from Fissure 8. Melt inclusion entrapment pressures reveal that more evolved olivines (Fo<81.5) crystallized at ~2 km depth within the shallower Halema’uma’u reservoir, while more primitive olivines (Fo>81.5)crystallized within the deeper South Caldera reservoir at ~3–5 km depth. Crucially, primitive olivines experienced extensive post-entrapment crystallization, driving the growth of a vapor bubble. Raman spectroscopy reveals that this bubble contains up to 99% of the total inclusionCO2 budget (median=93%). Measurements of CO2 in only the glass phase would have underestimated entrapment depths by up to 60× (median=11×), and the importance of the SC reservoir as a source of magma to Fissure 8 would have been overlooked. Overall, we demonstrate that Raman measurements of bubbles, along with careful choice of suitably-calibrated H2O-CO2 solubility model, is vital to place accurate constraints on the depths of magma storage regions supplying volcanic eruptions.

SIMS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Molecular clouds and supernova remnants in the outer galaxy

The study of extragalactic supernova (SNs) suggests that Type II SNs, not Type I, tend to occur near extreme optical Population I objects, but the detection of these objects in the Galaxy is limited by heavy local obscuration. A CO survey has been conducted toward every confirmed outer Galaxy SNR from l = 70 to 210 deg, for a total of 26, and it is found that roughly half of them, within uncertainties of distance estimates, revealed spatial coincidences with large molecular cloud complexes. Most of the cloud complexes in these coincidences probably are the birthplaces of the progenitors of the corresponding Type II SNRs, because it is statistically improbable that the coincidences result from change superposition.

Huang, Y.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A homogeneous sample of binary galaxies: Basic observational properties

A survey of optical characteristics for 585 binary systems, satisfying a condition of apparent isolation on the sky, is presented. Influences of various selection effects distorting the average parameters of the sample are noted. The pair components display mutual similarity over all the global properties: luminosity, diameter, morphological type, mass-to-luminosity ratio, angular momentum etc., which is not due only to selection effects. The observed correlations must be caused by common origin of pair members. Some features (nuclear activity, color index) could acquire similarity during synchronous evolution of double galaxies. Despite the observed isolation, the sample of double systems is seriously contaminated by accidental pairs, and also by members of groups and clusters. After removing false pairs estimates of orbital mass-to-luminosity ratio range from 0 to 30 f(solar), with the mean value (7.8 plus or minus 0.7) f(solar). Binary galaxies possess nearly circular orbits with a typical eccentrity e = 0.25, probably resulting from evolutionary selection driven by component mergers under dynamical friction. The double-galaxy population with space abundance 0.12 plus or minus 0.02 and characteristic merger timescale 0.2 H(exp -1) may significantly influence the rate of dynamical evolution of galaxies.

Karachentsev, I. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Imaging heliospheric shocks using energetic neutral atoms

In order to explore the feasibility of energetic neutral atom (ENA) imaging of shock-associated energetic proton populations in the heliosphere, computer-simulated ENA images have been generated based on Voyager 1/2 energetic ion measurements. One favorable vantage point for ENA shock imaging is from the Cassini spacecraft's orbit around Saturn at 10 AU. These images, calibrated relative to the measured shock-associated proton fluxes, yield an absolute estimate of ENA fluxes which indicates that useful heliospheric ENA imaging can be accomplished with present technology.

Roelof, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

NASA's Program to Monitor Orbital Debris in the GEO Belt and the General Problem of Measuring Near-Earth Object Orbits: Similarities and Differences

One of the goals for NASA s Orbital Debris Program Office has been to accurately characterize the population of debris in the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) environment. Most objects larger than about 1 meter in size are regularly tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance System in the GEO regime. The consequence has been that most large intact GEO objects are tracked, but the vast majority of GEO debris fragments are not. Only in recent years have observations been dedicated to characterize the GEO debris population. NASA s efforts have concentrated on using wide field-of-view telescopes to make complete surveys of the GEO regime to better our statistical understanding of the GEO debris population. These telescopes operate in a staring mode, and only make limited short-arc measurements of the orbits. This information, while limited, allows the possibility of debiasing the observations and constructing statistical distributions of orbits in inclination and ascending node. Recent work suggests that we may be able to use statistical methods to estimate better orbit parameters despite the limited data. Both of these types of studies estimating statistical orbit distributions, and estimating accurate orbits using limited short-arc data have direct analogues in ongoing studies of near-Earth objects (NEO) such as asteroids and comets. This talk will describe the GEO study methods in use and being developed at NASA, and will discuss how such methods may or may not be applicable for NEO studies as well.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

Cable, Samual B.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50 of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

Sensitivity↗

NASA NTRS2020

Agriculture's Historic Twin-Challenge Toward Sustainable Water Use and Food Supply for All

A sustainable and just future, envisioned by the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, puts agricultural systems under a heavy strain. The century-old quandary to provide ever-growing human populations with sufficient food takes on a new dimension with the recognition of environmental limits for agricultural resource use. To highlight challenges and opportunities toward sustainable food security in the twenty first century, this perspective paper provides a historical account of the escalating pressures on agriculture and freshwater resources alike, supported by new quantitative estimates of the ascent of excessive human water use. As the transformation of global farming into sustainable forms is unattainable without a revolution in agricultural water use, water saving and food production potentials are put into perspective with targets outlined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The literature body and here-confirmed global estimates of untapped opportunities in farm water management indicate that these measures could sustainably intensify today's farming systems at scale. While rigorous implementation of sustainable water withdrawals (SDG 6.4) might impinge upon 5% of global food production, scaling-up water interventions in rainfed and irrigated systems could over-compensate such losses and further increase global production by 30% compared to the current situation (SDG 2.3). Without relying on future technological fixes, traditional on-farm water and soil management provides key strategies associated with important synergies that needs better integration into agro-ecological landscape approaches. Integrated strategies for sustainable intensification of agriculture within planetary boundaries are a potential way to attain several SDGs, but they are not yet receiving attention from high-level development policies.

sustainable development goals↗

NASA NTRS2021

Starshade Rendezvous: Exoplanet Sensitivity and Observing Strategy

Launching a starshade to rendezvous with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) would provide the first opportunity to directly image the habitable zones (HZs) of nearby sunlike stars in the coming decade. A report on the science and feasibility of such a mission was recently submitted to NASA as a probe study concept. The driving objective of the concept is to determine whether Earth-like exoplanets exist in the HZs of the nearest sunlike stars and have biosignature gases in their atmospheres. With the sensitivity provided by this telescope, it is possible to measure the brightness of zodiacal dust disks around the nearest sunlike stars and establish how their population compares with our own. In addition, known gas-giant exoplanets can be targeted to measure their atmospheric metallicity and thereby determine if the correlation with planet mass follows the trend observed in the Solar System and hinted at by exoplanet transit spectroscopy data. We provide the details of the calculations used to estimate the sensitivity of Roman with a starshade and describe the publicly available Python-based source code used to make these calculations. Given the fixed capability of Roman and the constrained observing windows inherent for the starshade, we calculate the sensitivity of the combined observatory to detect these three types of targets, and we present an overall observing strategy that enables us to achieve these objectives.

Andrew Frederic Romero-wolf↗