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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35

Interpreting Primal-Dual Algorithms for Constrained Multiagent Reinforcement Learning

Constrained multiagent reinforcement learning (C-MARL) is gaining importance as MARL algorithms find new applications in real-world systems ranging from energy systems to drone swarms. Most C-MARL algorithms use a primal-dual approach to enforce constraints through a penalty function added to the reward. In this paper, we study the structural effects of this penalty term on the MARL problem. First, we show that the standard practice of using the constraint function as the penalty leads to a weak notion of safety. However, by making simple modifications to the penalty term, we can enforce meaningful probabilistic (chance and conditional value at risk) constraints. Second, we quantify the effect of the penalty term on the value function, uncovering an improved value estimation procedure. We use these insights to propose a constrained multiagent advantage actor critic (C-MAA2C) algorithm. Simulations in a simple constrained multiagent environment affirm that our reinterpretation of the primal-dual method in terms of probabilistic constraints is effective, and that our proposed value estimate accelerates convergence to a safe joint policy.

chance constraints↗

Multi-Disciplinary System Reliability Analysis

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code developed under the leadership of NASA Lewis Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multi-disciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Mahadevan, Sankaran↗

Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

Mahadevan, Sankaran↗

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Probabilistic learning and updating of a digital twin for composite material systems

This paper presents an approach for characterizing and estimating statistical dependence between a large number of observables in a composite material system. Conditional regression is carried out using the estimated joint density function, permitting a systematic exploration of interdependence between fine scale and coarse observables that can be used for both prognosis and design of complex material systems. An example demonstrates the integration of experimental data with a computational database. The statistical approach is based on the probabilistic learning on manifolds recently developed by the authors. This approach leverages intrinsic structure detected through diffusion on graphs with projected stochastic differential equations to generate samples constrained to that structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating switch lifetime in soft-switched single-stage differential-mode SST

The reliability of semiconductor switches in single-stage differential-mode solid-state transformers (DM-SSTs) has not been systematically evaluated under soft-switching operation and realistic grid conditions. This paper presents a switch-level reliability analysis for soft-switched and hard-switched DM-SST configurations by integrating converter-specific power loss modeling with empirical lifetime prediction. Analytical derivation of device current profiles specific to the DM-SST is used to characterize electrothermal stress, which is then mapped to lifetime using degradation models obtained from power cycling tests (PCTs). Applied to realistic SST load profiles and grid voltage variations, this approach provides a probabilistic prediction of switch lifetime for the DM-SST. Lifetime estimates for both SiC MOSFETs and Si IGBTs are presented, offering insight into device degradation under converter operating conditions. The results quantify the reliability benefits of soft switching in single-stage SSTs, highlighting how switching dynamics influence long-term switch degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dynamic modeling and sensitivity analysis of solar thermal energy conversion systems

Since the energy input to solar thermal conversion systems is both time variant and probabilistic, it is unlikely that simple steady-state methods for estimating lifetime performance will provide satisfactory results. The work described here uses dynamic modeling to begin identifying what must be known about input radiation and system dynamic characteristics to estimate performance reliably. Daily operation of two conceptual solar energy systems was simulated under varying operating strategies with time-dependent radiation intensity ranging from smooth input of several magnitudes to input of constant total energy whose intensity oscillated with periods from 1/4 hour to 6 hours. Integrated daily system output and efficiency were functions of both level and dynamic characteristics of insolation. Sensitivity of output to changes in total input was greater than one.

Hamilton, C. L.↗

Using Finite-Element Analysis In Estimating Reliability

Method of estimating design survivability of structural component incorporates finite-element and probabilistic properties of materials. Involves evaluation of design parameters through direct comparisons of survivability of component expressed in terms of percentages of like components that survive at various lifetimes. Probabilistic properties of materials, given in terms of Weibull parameters, coupled with stress field computed by finite-element analysis to determine fatigue life based on initiation of cracks. Method applied to rotating disk containing bolt holes, representative of disks used in aerospace propulsion turbines. Also used in early stages of design process to optimize life-based designs, reducing testing of full-sized components needed to validate designs.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

Predictive and Cooperative Voltage Control with Probabilistic Load and Solar Generation Forecasting

This paper proposes predictive cooperative voltage control method in a power system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. Cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output of PV inverters is coordinated with operation of voltage regulators (VRs) to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar power generation and the loads is applied to estimate voltage changes which, in turn, are used to set the VR tap positions for preventing large voltage fluctuations with the lowest risk considering the voltage distribution estimation. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on the modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high PV penetration using real insolation data and with constant loads replaced by several different load profiles. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the coordinated approach for voltage control with cooperative PV and predictive VR controls taking into account probabilistic load and solar power forecasts.

Cooperative Control↗

GPS Spoofing Mitigation and Timing Risk Analysis in Networked Phasor Measurement Units via Stochastic Reachability

To address phasor measurement unit (PMU) vulnerability to spoofing, we propose the use of a set-valued state estimation technique known as stochastic reachability (SR)-based distributed Kalman filter (DKF) that computes secure global positioning system (GPS) timing across a network of receivers. Utilizing SR, we estimate not only GPS time but also its stochastic reachable set, which is parameterized by probabilistic zonotope (p-Zonotope). While requiring known measurement error bounds in only non-spoofed conditions, we designed a two-tiered approach. We first performed measurement-level spoofing mitigation via deviation of a measurement innovation from its expected p-Zonotope. We then performed state-level timing risk analysis via a determination of the intersection probability of the estimated p-Zonotope with an unsafe set that violates IEEE C37.118.1a-2014 standards. Finally, we validated our SR-DKF algorithm by subjecting it to a simulated receiver network to coordinate signal-level spoofing. We demonstrate improved timing accuracy and successful spoofing mitigation via the use of our SR-DKF algorithm. We also validated the robustness of the estimated timing risk as the number of receivers were varied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

Plumer, Eric↗

Ensemble models for circuit topology estimation, fault detection and classification in distribution systems

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous fault detection, classification, and topology estimation for adaptive protection of distribution systems. The methodology estimates the probability of the occurrence of each one of these events by using a hybrid structure that combines three sub-systems, a convolutional neural network for topology estimation, a fault detection based on predictive residual analysis, and a standard support vector machine with probabilistic output for fault classification. The input to all these sub-systems is the local voltage and current measurements. A convolutional neural network uses these local measurements in the form of sequential data to extract features and estimate the topology conditions. The fault detector is constructed with a Bayesian stage (a multitask Gaussian process) that computes a predictive distribution (assumed to be Gaussian) of the residuals using the input. Since the distribution is known, these residuals can be transformed into a Standard distribution, whose values are then introduced into a one-class support vector machine. The structure allows using a one-class support vector machine without parameter cross-validation, so the fault detector is fully unsupervised. Finally, a support vector machine uses the input to perform the classification of the fault types. All three sub-systems can work in a parallel setup for both performance and computation efficiency. In conclusion, we test all three sub-systems included in the structure on a modified IEEE123 bus system, and we compare and evaluate the results with standard approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Artificial Reasoning System for Symptom-Based Conditional Failure Probability Estimation Using Bayesian Network

Advances in nuclear power technologies require enhanced capabilities for operator advice and autonomous control. One of the first tasks in the development of such capabilities is the formulation of symptom-based conditional failure probabilities for structures, systems, and components (SSCs) of interest, for which the primary goal is to aid plant personnel in deducing the probabilistic performance status of the monitored SSCs and in detecting impending faults/failure. The task of conditional failure probability estimation is a bidirectional inference problem and shall be logically tackled by the Bayesian network (BN) approach. As a knowledge-based artificial intelligence tool and a probabilistic graphical model, BN offers the capability of reasoning under uncertainty and graphical representation emulating the physical behavior of the target SSC. This paper provides a systematic overview of the BN technique and the software tools for handling implementation of BN models, along with the associated knowledge representation and reasoning paradigm. Both operational data and expert judgement can be readily incorporated into the knowledge base of a BN model. The challenges with data availability are highlighted, and the general approach to target SSC identification is presented. Our focus is upon failure-prone and risk-important balance of plant assets, especially cases having strong operator involvement. An exemplary case study on the failure of a motor-driven centrifugal pump is also conducted to demonstrate the usefulness and technical feasibility of the proposed artificial reasoning system using an expert system shell.

Zhao, Xingang↗

A two-step short-term probabilistic wind forecasting methodology based on predictive distribution optimization

With increasing wind penetrations into electric power systems, probabilistic wind forecasting becomes more critical to power system operations because of its capability of quantifying wind uncertainties. In this paper, a two-step probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is developed. First, a multimodel machine learning-based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework is adopted to generate deterministic forecasts. The deterministic forecast is assumed to be the mean value of the predictive distribution at each forecasting time stamp. Then, the optimal unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of the predictive distribution is estimated by a support vector regression surrogate model based on the deterministic forecasts. Lastly, probabilistic forecasts are generated from the predictive distribution. Numerical results of case studies at eight locations show that the developed two-step probabilistic forecasting methodology has improved the pinball loss metric score by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗

Estimating risk for earth-satellite attenuation prediction

Annual cumulative distributions of attenuation measurements and of rain-rate measurements were obtained from several locations in Europe and the United States. They were analyzed to estimate the year-to-year variability to be associated with a prediction of the expected cumulative distribution. Two models were constructed to estimate variability, an ad hoc model that summarized a number of observations when compared to model predictions and a probabilistic model that applied the ideas of order statistics to the prediction problem when the number of independent attenuation or rain-rate events in a sample year could be estimated. Based on these models, the statistical uncertainty in a model prediction may be estimated. The estimation procedure also provides an answer to the question of the number of years of observation needed to provide an estimate of the empirical distribution with a specified statistical uncertainty.

Crane, Robert K.↗

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Daigle, Matthew↗

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

Millwater, H. R.↗