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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Diverting steam from a nuclear power plant to thermal storage to increase economic efficiency of electricity production

In 2014, 30% of greenhouse gases that were emitted in the United States came from the production of electricity. These greenhouses gases are causing global warming, an environmental challenge affecting today's climate. Nuclear power plants provide the ability to produce electricity without creating the harmful greenhouse gases. However, in some markets nuclear power is not as economically competitive as other electricity generation methods. To increase the use of nuclear power, minimizing the production of greenhouse gases, nuclear power must become more profitable. A way to accomplish this, is by storing heat during times of low electricity prices to be used to produce electricity when the electricity price is greater. This can be done through the thermal storage of diverted steam from the secondary system of a light water pressurized water reactor (PWR) at times of low electricity prices. Six technologies for heat storage are being investigated: steam accumulators, sensible heat fluid systems, packed-beds, cryogenic air systems, hot rock, and geologic heat storage. There are multiple technologies to store electricity when prices are low to sell electricity when prices are high. These include hydro pumped storage, batteries and many other technologies. A nuclear reactor generates heat. Thus, the preferred storage option is to store heat. Heat storage is also much cheaper than electricity (work) storage; thus, has the potential for a competitive storage system. Many of these storage technologies are currently being installed in solar thermal plants to avoid selling electricity when electricity prices are low.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ecosystem service benefits to water users from perennial biomass production

We report although many agree that a transition to renewable energy sources is needed to avoid the climate consequences of continued reliance on fossil sources, price is a barrier. For renewable energy sources, including bioenergy, penetrating energy markets depends on lowering prices to compete with the price of fossil sources, but the tools used in decision making, such as supply curves, exclude non-market benefits from ecosystem services. Here, we extend the economic concept of an economic supply curve to account for ecosystem services co-produced with perennial biomass. We developed three new types of supply curves to visualize the increased supply of biomass (‘sustainable supply’) with sufficient water-quality benefits to offset biomass production costs. Using these tools, we show that the value of water-quality improvements could significantly reduce the break-even price of perennial feedstocks if it were available to farmers. In the most optimistic case, nearly half of potential biomass supply in a large tributary of the Mississippi river basin carried water purification value exceeding the cost of biomass production. Furthermore, adding the value to swimmers and waders offset production cost for over 90% of potential supply. Simulated benefits were context specific. For example, total value for water drinkers peaked at an intermediate level of fertilizer application. Geographically, benefits were highest in the eastern portion of the river basin. This research shows where the sustainable supply is needed and can generate value; the next step is to match this supply with credit buyers. Efforts to internalize the values of ecosystem services into biomass prices could help to meet Biden administration targets to meet 100% of sustainable aviation fuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Variance Analysis of Wind and Natural Gas Generation under Different Market Structures: Some Observations

An important area of current research is whether large-scale penetration of variable renewable generation such as wind and solar power pose economic and operational burdens on the electricity system. In such scenarios, this issue has also raised considerable interest in the potential role and value of electricity storage as a method of mitigating variability in generation associated with the inherently variable nature of these forms of generation. At the same time, a number of studies have pointed to the potential benefits of renewable generation as a hedge against the volatility and potential escalation of fossil fuel prices. Prior research and this work suggest that the lack of correlation of renewable energy costs with fossil fuel prices means that adding large amounts of wind or solar generation may also reduce the volatility of system-wide electricity costs. Such variance reduction in overall system costs may be of significant value to consumers due to risk aversion. In contrast to this observation, other studies have focused on returns in restructured markets and noted that, in deregulated markets, baseload natural gas power generation may be relatively more attractive to investors because-unlike wind generation-peak power prices are often strongly correlated to natural gas prices. The analysis in this report recognizes that the potential value of risk mitigation associated with wind generation and natural gas generation may depend on whether one considers the consumer's perspective or the investor's perspective and whether the market is regulated or deregulated. We analyze the risk and return trade-offs for wind and natural gas generation for deregulated markets based on hourly prices and load over a 10-year period using historical data in the PJM Interconnection (PJM)2 from 1999 to 2008. Similar analysis is then simulated and evaluated for regulated markets under certain assumptions. Estimating the absolute value, as opposed to the relative value, of variance reduction will also depend on assumptions about risk aversion and other consumer preferences, such as loss aversion, and this is discussed.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into Methodologies and Stochastic Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage-Coupled Advanced Reactor Systems: A Comparison of Methods for Accessing Long-Term Sub-System Sizing Adequacy

This paper investigates the potential of coupling Thermal Energy Storage (TES) with Advanced Reactors (ARs) to address uncertainties posed by climate change in deep decarbonized power systems. The TES Use-case Team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has examined the potential of storing thermal energy from ARs during low demand periods and optimizing discharge during peak-priced hours, in both steady-state and transient conditions. Building on this groundwork, this study bridges the gaps in optimal sizing of the sub-system of TES-coupled AR systems using Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), INL?s framework for grid optimization. By applying this framework, we present statistically-robust optimal charge, discharge including balance of plant (BOP), and storage sizing for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) with 203 MWth output. To this end, we generated synthetic price samples for 30 years using 2018 ? 2021 real-time market data from ERCOT, PJM and MISO. Our results reveals that the TES-coupled HTGR system is highly effective in maximizing revenue from electricity sales. We observed a substantial increase of 40 % in ERCOT and a noteworthy 15 % increase in PJM and MISO when compared to the conventional BOP without TES. This improvement is achieved through regionally-tailored sub-system sizing, which ranges from 398 to 416 MWth for the discharge system and 610 to 1029 MWth for the TES. We find that the average electricity price directly impacts the overall economics, while price volatility influences storage size. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed to access the impact of key assumptions on system economics and sizing, differentiating the optimization window (i.e., 24 ? 219 hours of chronological observations) and by imposing storage continuity condition in tracking TES cycles. We observed that at the 120-hour of the optimization window, a reasonable balance between computation time and accuracy was achieved. Our analysis also highlights the significance of conducting multi-day cycle analysis (> 120-hour) for TES to capture interaction between electricity prices and storage dynamics, providing a comprehensive understanding of TES behavior that AR developers should integrate into their plant designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Well Do U.S. Western Water Markets Convey Economic Information?

An efficient market implies that potential gains from trade are fully captured. Achieving this requires a well-functioning market where prices reflect all available information. In the case of water rights markets, this implies that the permanent water rights transfer price reflects the sum of discounted returns to this asset (i.e., the lease price), the market interest rate, and a risk premium that reflects potential future water scarcity. Here, the purpose of this study is to assess the efficiency of western U.S. water markets by using the asset pricing model to measure how well prices reflect long-run returns to permanent water rights.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Heat Storage for Peak Power with Base-Load Rankine-Cycle LWRs nd Brayton-Cycle High-Temperature Reactors

The world is transitioning to a low-carbon energy system. Variable electricity and industrial energy demands have been met with storable fossil fuels-systems with low-capital costs and high-operating costs. In contrast, the low-carbon energy sources (nuclear, wind and solar) are characterized by high-capital-costs and low-operating costs. High utilization is required to produce economic energy. The addition of large quantities of wind or solar changes the market. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Future of Solar Energy study provides an examination of the solar option and the challenge of moving from an electricity grid dominated by fossil fuel generation to a grid with significant solar capacity. As more solar plants are built, electricity prices at times of high solar output collapse; thus, solar revenue collapses as solar production increases. This limits unsubsidized solar capacity to a relatively small fraction of total electricity production even if there are large decreases in solar capital costs. The same occurs with the large-scale use of wind. This results in increasing number of hours of near-zero wholesale prices for electricity that has been seen in multiple electricity markets in Europe and the United States. This is bad economic news for nuclear, wind and solar for revenue collapse limits the use of low-carbon technologies. It favors lower-capital-cost higher-operating- cost natural gas plants with their capability to cycle up and down quickly. New technologies are required to store or use this electricity at times of low prices to produce electricity at times of high prices. We describe two strategies to improve nuclear power economics based on heat storage. Heat storage is less expensive than electricity storage. The reactor operates at full capacity all the time but the electricity to the grid varies with time depending upon electricity prices. Each option allows sending heat to industry.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Regional techno-economic and life-cycle analysis of the pyrolysis-bioenergy-biochar platform for carbon-negative energy

This study investigates the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the minimum fuel selling price for a 2000 metric ton day –1 integrated pyrolysis–bioenergy–biochar platform with respect to the biorefinery location and biomass types. The regional techno–economic and life–cycle analysis is evaluated in three US counties using representative crops: rice in Glenn County (California), corn in Hamilton County (Iowa), and peanuts in Jackson County (Florida). We evaluate the biochar selling price considering crop yield increases of 0.6%, 2.9%, and 10% after biochar application over 20 years in Glenn County, Hamilton County, and Jackson County, respectively. The biochar prices are calculated under low and high commodity prices to determine upper and lower bounds. Jackson County has the most economically beneficial scenario with an average minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of 1.55 gal –1 of biofuel produced whereas Hamilton County has the highest average MFSP of 3.82 gal –1 . The life–cycle analysis shows that woody biomass has a strong potential to produce carbon–negative energy compared to grass and straw. As a result, of the 304 cases scenarios considered for this platform, 64% could produce biofuel with negative GHG emissions, which would meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) target for cellulosic biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supply analysis of preferential market incentive for energy crops

This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. Here, we recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Understanding Uncertainties in the Economic Feasibility of Transportation Fuel Production using Biomass Gasification and Mixed Alcohol Synthesis

This analysis evaluates uncertainties of previously conducted techno-economic analysis of transportation fuel production via biomass gasification and mixed alcohol synthesis. Two scenarios are considered: a state-of-technology scenario utilizing existing technologies and a target scenario representing future advancements in related technologies. Uncertainties of more than ten parameters are investigated, including feedstock price, internal rate of return (IRR), etc. Historical price data of these parameters are fitted with the most appropriate distribution and datasets are generated for each parameter accordingly. These data sets are then utilized to run a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results yield minimum fuel selling prices of $7.02/gal with a standard deviation of 0.49 for the state-of-technology scenario and $4.33/gal with a standard deviation of 0.42 for the target scenario respectively. Feedstock price and IRR have significant impact on the minimum fuel selling price in both scenarios. These findings are indicative of the reduction in biofuel cost and uncertainty achievable with increasing technology maturity.

Bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2022

How profitable is switchgrass in Illinois, USA? An economic definition of marginal land

Decisions regarding the conversion of land from an existing crop to bioenergy crops are critical for the sustainable production of both food and fuels. This study seeks to establish criteria for delineating land as “economically marginal”, and thus suited for growing switchgrass. In this case study of an Illinois agricultural field, the profitability of switchgrass, with farmgate prices of $\$44$ Mg –1 , $\$66$ Mg –1 , or $\$88$ Mg –1 , was compared to corn and soybean crop prices. Further, the study also evaluates the profitability of switchgrass when replacing corn-based yield estimates from the Soil Productivity Index (SPI) of Illinois. Based on a dry-matter yield of 10.45 Mg ha –1 , switchgrass can compete with soybeans only at the high price of $\$88$ Mg –1 , but depending on location, can compete with corn at $\$66$ Mg –1 . Across Illinois, at $\$88$ ha –1 , all Illinois land with SPI < 100% and 95% of land under SPI class C (SPI 100–116) is profitable under switchgrass. Switchgrass may not be profitable relative to corn grown in the SPI class A (SPI > 133) and only 7% of class B (SPI 117–132). Our results show that land with drainage and erosion limitations is economically marginal when corn and soybean yields are low, and the farmgate price for switchgrass is greater than $\$66$ Mg –1 . However, this may not be possible on land where switchgrass is replacing frequent soybean rotations (corn–soybean ratio ≤ 1). Land used to produce only soybeans may only be marginal at the farmgate price of $\$88$ Mg –1 . Further studies need to be conducted to identify how much land can be converted to switchgrass without harming corn production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Retracted Article: Distributed energy management for networked microgrids in a three-phase unbalanced distribution network

Owing to increased penetration of three-phase and single-phase microgrids, distributed energy resources (DERs), and responsive loads, the maintenance of a three-phase balance by distribution networks is a significant challenge. Existing literature on distributed energy management for networked microgrids generally neglects the distribution network or employs a simplified phase balanced distribution network; thus, these evaluations are not applicable. Further, the underlying mutual coupling between the different phases of distribution feeders results in a more challenging situation. Here, to solve this issue, this study sought to propose distributed energy management based on a three-phase unbalanced distribution network. Various three-phase or single-phase microgrids, utility-owned DERs, and responsive loads were coordinated through iteratively adjusted price signals. Based on the price signals received, the microgrid controllers (MCs) and distribution management system (DMS) updated the schedules of the DERs and responsive loads under their jurisdiction separately. The price signals were then updated according to the generation-load mismatch at each node and distributed to the corresponding MCs and DMS for the next iteration. The iteration continued until a sufficiently small generation-load mismatch was achieved at all nodes, that is, a balanced generation and load at all nodes under the agreed price signals. Considering a three-phase unbalanced distribution network, the price signals were determined per phase per node. Overall, the proposed distributed energy management coordinates microgrids, utility-owned DERs, responsive loads with guaranteed network constraints, and preserves the privacy of microgrid customers. This distributed energy management method was further demonstrated through various case studies on a three-phase networked microgrid test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal scheduling for profit maximization of energy storage merchants considering market impact based on dynamic programming

This paper analyzes how electricity merchants' market impact affects merchants' profit. Energy storage has long been studied for its role in maximizing profit, and merchant decisions are assumed to have no impact on market prices. However, the trading decisions of large-scale energy storage merchants (e.g., pumped storage hydro) will affect the market prices. This paper employs dynamic programming theory to investigate merchants' optimal economic dispatch considering the market impact and physical characteristics of storage systems. Our findings show that the State-of-Charge (SOC) based analytical solution significantly facilitates energy storage merchants' decision-making. The SOC range is segmented into three regions by two optimal SOC reference points, which depend on the available energy in storage, given prices, and market impact. By comparing the current storage SOC with the reference points, the merchant can get the corresponding optimal actions. We analytically show that if the merchant neglects the market impact on the power market, she will exaggerate her expected profit when the price-taker and price-maker merchants have the same generating and pumping upper limits offered to Independent System Operators (ISOs). Furthermore, the profit-maximizing merchant must, therefore, assay to balance the trade-off correctly between the intensity of market impact and the dispatched power. Our findings are verified by numerical simulation, and results demonstrate the ramifications for electricity merchants in energy arbitrage decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Economic Impacts of High Wind Penetration Scenarios in the United States

The U.S. electric sector is experiencing rapid increases in renewable generation with an expectation of continued growth. We examine the impacts of increased wind electricity on the U.S. economy using a hybrid model that links a detailed electric sector model (the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System [ReEDS]) with a computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy (the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's U.S. Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model). Increasing wind capacity displaces fossil fuels for electricity generation, which depresses fossil fuel prices and reduces economy-wide CO 2 emissions. Competitive wind deployment in the reference scenario achieves these outcomes with lower electricity prices than a scenario with wind capacity fixed at 2016 levels. Lower fossil fuel and electricity prices benefit low-income households, but the dominant economic impacts are driven by increased electric sector investment and capital returns, which primarily benefit those with higher incomes. Overall, cost-competitive wind provides benefits to the U.S. economy that are initially low but rise beyond 2030 to achieve cumulative welfare and GDP improvements of $110 and $111 billion through 2050. Prescribing additional wind deployment (meeting 35% of demand by 2050) increases post-2030 electricity prices but not more so than keeping wind capacity fixed at 2016 levels. The negative effect of higher prices on welfare, however, is outweighed by higher returns from the additional wind investment. While these changes favor higher income classes, we find economy-wide benefits through 2040. These benefits diminish by 2050, but the cumulative additional gains through 2050, beyond the reference case, are $192 billion in welfare and $150 billion in GDP.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-economic analysis of cathode material production using flame-assisted spray pyrolysis

The cost of cathode materials contributes approximately 32.7% of the total cell construction cost of lithium-ion batteries, significantly affecting the price of battery packs. To reduce the cathode material manufacturing cost, a flame-assisted spray pyrolysis (FSP) method has been developed to utilize a sustainable solvent of glycerol to manufacture the LiNi 1/3 Mn 1/3 Co 1/3 O 2 (NMC333) cathode materials. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the minimum cathode material selling price (MCSP) of the FSP processes compared with a traditional carbonate co-precipitation pathway. Results show that the MCSP of the FSP is $\$$19.1/kg that is 17% lower than the traditional carbonate co-precipitation pathway as a result of lower fixed operating cost and variable overhead. Sensitivity analysis shows that when the new process is integrated with in-situ sintering and processing, the MCSP can be as low as $\$$15.6/kg. When all the material prices are decreased by 20%, the FSP process can synthesize NMC333 at a price of $\$$2.3/kg lower. According to the simulation result, LiNi 0·8 Mn 0·1 Co 0·1 O 2 (NMC811) has the best potential to meet the U.S. Department of Energy battery price target of $\$$125/kWh, demonstrating that the FSP process is an attractive manufacturing technology for NMC cathode powder material production.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations

This paper evaluates environmental policy effects on ligno-cellulosic biomass production and environ- mental outcomes using an integrated bioeconomic optimization model. The environmental policy integrated climate (EPIC) model is used to simulate crop yields and environmental indicators in current and future potential bioenergy cropping systems based on weather, topographic and soil data. The crop yield and environmental outcome parameters from EPIC are combined with biomass transport costs and economic parameters in a representative farmer profit-maximizing mathematical optimization model. The model is used to predict the impact of alternative policies on biomass production and environmental outcomes. We find that without environmental policy, rising biomass prices initially trigger production of annual crop residues, resulting in increased greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, and nutrient losses to surface and ground water. At higher biomass prices, perennial bioenergy crops replace annual crop residues as biomass sources, resulting in lower environmental impacts. Simulations of three environmental policies namely a carbon price, a no-till area subsidy, and a fertilizer tax reveal that only the carbon price policy systematically mitigates environmental impacts. The fertilizer tax is ineffectual and too costly to farmers. The no-till subsidy is effective only at low biomass prices and is too costly to government.

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso↗
DOE OSTI2021

Market expectations of a warming climate

In this paper, we compare prices of financial derivatives whose payouts are based on future weather outcomes to CMIP5 climate model predictions as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US from 2001 through 2020. Derivative prices respond both to short-term weather forecasts for the next two weeks and longer-term warming trends. We show that the long-term trends in derivative prices are comparable to station-level data and climate model output. The one exception is February in the northeastern US, where financial markets price in a polar vortex-induced cooling effect, a recent scientific finding that was not present in the older CMIP5 climate output. When looking at the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in trends, futures prices are more aligned with climate model output than observed weather station trends, suggesting that market participants closely align their expectations with scientific projections rather than recent observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Exploring the impact of increased solar deployment levels on residential electricity bills in India

Here, in this study, the impact of increased solar penetration in the electricity generation mix on residential electricity consumer bills is explored. The study comprises of two sections: simulation of wholesale electricity rates and retail rate modeling. In the first stage, wholesale prices were modeled using a bottom-up long term unit commitment optimization model for different energy mix scenarios based on increased solar penetration, ranging from 5 to 40% on energy basis. The simulations indicated a fall in wholesale prices with increased solar penetration, a result of merit order effect. The simulated wholesale prices were then used to model retail rates for residential consumers. Four different types of retail rates were designed: flat rate, real time pricing, time of use and critical peak pricing. The impact of these retail rate mechanisms on electricity bills of residential consumers was analyzed and it was found that the bill savings achieved from time varying rates are greater than for time invariant rates. With increased solar penetration, customers with time-varying rates are likely to benefit the most from electricity bill savings. Although consumers with flat rate gain bill savings with increased solar penetration, the savings are likely to be lower than with time-varying rates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integration of plant and microbial oil processing at oilcane biorefineries for more sustainable biofuel production

Oilcane—an oil-accumulating crop engineered from sugarcane—and microbial oil have the potential to improve renewable oil production and help meet the expected demand for bioderived oleochemicals and fuels. To assess the potential synergies of processing both plant and microbial oils, the economic and environmental implications of integrating microbial oil production at oilcane and sugarcane biorefineries were characterized. Due to decreased crop yields that lead to higher simulated feedstock prices and lower biorefinery capacities, current oilcane prototypes result in higher costs and carbon intensities than microbial oil from sugarcane. To inform oilcane feedstock development, we calculated the required biomass yields (as a function of oil content) for oilcane to achieve financial parity with sugarcane. At 10 dw% oil, oilcane can sustain up to 30% less yield than sugarcane and still be more profitable in all simulated scenarios. Assuming continued improvements in microbial oil production from cane juice, achieving this target results in a minimum biodiesel selling price of 1.34 [0.90, 1.85] USD∙L –1 (presented as median [5th, 95th] percentiles), a carbon intensity of 0.51 [0.47, 0.55] kg CO 2 e L –1 , and a total biodiesel yield of 2140 [1870, 2410] L ha –1 year –1 . Compared to biofuel production from soybean, this outcome is equivalent to 3.0–3.9 as much biofuel per hectare of land and a 57%–63% reduction in carbon intensity. While only 20% of simulated scenarios fell within the market price range of biodiesel (0.45–1.11 USD∙L –1 ), if the oilcane biomass yield would improve to 25.6 DMT∙ha –1 ∙y –1 (an equivalent yield to sugarcane) 87% of evaluated scenarios would have a minimum biodiesel selling price within or below the market price range.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗