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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An iterative method to deblend AGN-Host contributions for Integral Field spectroscopic observations

ABSTRACT We present a new iterative deblending method to separate the host galaxy (HG) and their Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) emission with the use of Integral Field spectroscopic (IFS) data. The method decomposes the resolved HG emission from the unresolved AGN emission by modelling the two-dimensional surface brightness (SB) profile of the point-spread function (PSF) and the two-dimensional SB HG continuum simultaneously per each monochromatic slide. Our method does not require any prior information about the observed SB profile or a detailed fitting of the PSF, making it ideal for the automatic analysis of large galaxy samples. In this work, we test the quality of our method, its advantages, and its disadvantages. We test our method by using a set of IFS mock data cubes to quantify the reliability of our deblending process and further compare our method with the qdblend3d analysis tool. Furthermore, we applied our method to three data cubes selected from the MaNGA survey according to the dominance of either its HG or its AGN. We show that our deblending method is capable of disengaging the bright, non-resolved AGN emission from the HG continuum and its narrow emission lines. However, the decoupling depends on how well the IFS spatially resolves the PSF, and on the relative flux intensity of the HG-AGN. Therefore, the method is ideal for disentangling the bright-flux contribution from AGN-dominated spectra.

Ibarra-Medel, H. (ORCID:0000000297906313)↗
DOE OSTI2026

BICEP/Keck. XX. Component-separated Maps of the Polarized Cosmic Microwave Background and Thermal Dust Emission Using Planck and BICEP/Keck Observations through the 2018 Observing Season

We present component-separated polarization maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and Galactic thermal dust emission, derived using data from the BICEP/Keck experiments through the 2018 observing season and Planck. By employing a maximum-likelihood method that utilizes observing matrices, we produce unbiased maps of the CMB and dust signals. We outline the computational challenges and demonstrate an efficient implementation of the component map estimator. We show methods to compute and characterize power spectra of these maps, opening up an alternative way to infer the tensor-to-scalar ratio from our data. We compare the results of this map-based separation method with the baseline BICEP/Keck analysis. Our analysis demonstrates consistency between the two methods, finding an 84% correlation between the pipelines.

cosmic inflation↗
NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of Observation Impacts in Two Forecast Systems using Adjoint Methods

An experiment is being conducted to compare directly the impact of all assimilated observations on short-range forecast errors in different operational forecast systems. We use the adjoint-based method developed by Langland and Baker (2004), which allows these impacts to be efficiently calculated. This presentation describes preliminary results for a "baseline" set of observations, including both satellite radiances and conventional observations, used by the Navy/NOGAPS and NASA/GEOS-5 forecast systems for the month of January 2007. In each system, about 65% of the total reduction in 24-h forecast error is provided by satellite observations, although the impact of rawinsonde, aircraft, land, and ship-based observations remains significant. Only a small majority (50- 55%) of all observations assimilated improves the forecast, while the rest degrade it. It is found that most of the total forecast error reduction comes from observations with moderate-size innovations providing small to moderate impacts, not from outliers with very large positive or negative innovations. In a global context, the relative impacts of the major observation types are fairly similar in each system, although regional differences in observation impact can be significant. Of particular interest is the fact that while satellite radiances have a large positive impact overall, they degrade the forecast in certain locations common to both systems, especially over land and ice surfaces. Ongoing comparisons of this type, with results expected from other operational centers, should lead to more robust conclusions about the impacts of the various components of the observing system as well as about the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to assimilate them.

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

Gelaro, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2014

Validation of Spherically Symmetric Inversion by Use of a Tomographically Reconstructed Three-Dimensional Electron Density of the Solar Corona

Determining the coronal electron density by the inversion of white-light polarized brightness (pB) measurements by coronagraphs is a classic problem in solar physics. An inversion technique based on the spherically symmetric geometry (spherically symmetric inversion, SSI) was developed in the 1950s and has been widely applied to interpret various observations. However, to date there is no study of the uncertainty estimation of this method. We here present the detailed assessment of this method using a three-dimensional (3D) electron density in the corona from 1.5 to 4 solar radius as a model, which is reconstructed by a tomography method from STEREO/COR1 observations during the solar minimum in February 2008 (Carrington Rotation, CR 2066).We first show in theory and observation that the spherically symmetric polynomial approximation (SSPA) method and the Van de Hulst inversion technique are equivalent. Then we assess the SSPA method using synthesized pB images from the 3D density model, and find that the SSPA density values are close to the model inputs for the streamer core near the plane of the sky (POS) with differences generally smaller than about a factor of two; the former has the lower peak but extends more in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions than the latter. We estimate that the SSPA method may resolve the coronal density structure near the POS with angular resolution in longitude of about 50 deg. Our results confirm the suggestion that the SSI method is applicable to the solar minimum streamer (belt), as stated in some previous studies. In addition, we demonstrate that the SSPA method can be used to reconstruct the 3D coronal density, roughly in agreement with the reconstruction by tomography for a period of low solar activity (CR 2066). We suggest that the SSI method is complementary to the 3D tomographic technique in some cases, given that the development of the latter is still an ongoing research effort.

corona↗
DOE OSTI2015

Joint retrievals of cloud and drizzle in marine boundary layer clouds using ground-based radar, lidar and zenith radiances

Active remote sensing of marine boundary-layer clouds is challenging as drizzle drops often dominate the observed radar reflectivity. We present a new method to simultaneously retrieve cloud and drizzle vertical profiles in drizzling boundary-layer clouds using surface-based observations of radar reflectivity, lidar attenuated backscatter, and zenith radiances under conditions when precipitation does not reach the surface. Specifically, the vertical structure of droplet size and water content of both cloud and drizzle is characterised throughout the cloud. An ensemble optimal estimation approach provides full error statistics given the uncertainty in the observations. To evaluate the new method, we first perform retrievals using synthetic measurements from large-eddy simulation snapshots of cumulus under stratocumulus, where cloud water path is retrieved with an error of 31 g m -2 . The method also performs well in non-drizzling clouds where no assumption of the cloud profile is required. We then apply the method to observations of marine stratocumulus obtained during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MAGIC deployment in the Northeast Pacific. Here, retrieved cloud water path agrees well with independent three-channel microwave radiometer retrievals, with a root mean square difference of 10–20 g m -2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1938

Generalized analysis of experimental observations in problems of elastic stability

A generalized method of analyzing experimental observations in problems of elastic stability is presented in which the initial readings of load and deflection may be taken at any load less the critical load. The analysis is an extension of a method published by Southwell in 1932, in which it was assumed that the initial readings are taken at zero load.

Lundquist, Eugene E↗
DOE OSTI2025

The aluminium-26 distribution in a cosmological simulation of a Milky Way-type Galaxy

Context . The 1.8 MeV γ -rays corresponding to the decay of the radioactive isotope 26 Al (with a half-life of 0.72 Myr ) have been observed by the SPI detector on the INTEGRAL spacecraft and extensively used as a tracer of star formation and current nucleosynthetic activity in the Milky Way Galaxy. Further information is encoded in the observation related to the higher 26 Al content found in regions of the Galaxy with the highest line-of-sight (LoS) velocity relative to an observer located in the Solar System. However, this feature remains unexplained. Aims . We ran a cosmological “zoom-in” chemodynamical simulation of a Milky Way-type galaxy, including the production and decays of radioactive nuclei in a fully self-consistent way. We then analyzed the results to follow the evolution of 26 Al throughout the lifetime of the simulated galaxy to provide a new method for interpreting the 26 Al observations. Methods . We included the massive star sources of 26 Al in the Galaxy and its radioactive decay into a state-of-the-art galactic chemical evolution model, coupled with cosmological growth and hydrodynamics. This approach allowed us to follow the spatial and temporal evolution of the 26 Al content in the simulated galaxy. Results . Our results are in agreement with the observations with respect to the fact that gas particles in the simulation with relatively higher 26 Al content also have the highest LoS velocities. On the other hand, gas particles with relatively lower 26 Al content (i.e., not bright enough to be observed) generally display the lowest LoS velocities. However, this result is not conclusive because the overall rotational velocity of our simulated galaxy is higher than that observed for cold CO gas in the Milky Way Galaxy. Furthermore, we found no significant correlation between gas temperature, rotational velocity, and 26 Al content at any given radius. We also found the presence of transient 26 Al-rich spots at low LoS velocities and we show that one such spot had been captured by the INTEGRAL/SPI data. Based on our model, we present a prediction for the detection of 1.8 MeV γ -rays by the future COSI mission. We find that according to our model, the new instrument will be able to observe similar 26 Al-emission patterns to those seen by INTEGRAL/SPI.

Wehmeyer, B. (ORCID:0009000254149292)↗
NASA NTRS1973

Estimation of peak winds from hourly observations

Two closely related methods to obtain estimates of the hourly peak wind at Cape Kennedy were compared by statistical tests. The methods evaluated the Monin-Obukhov stability length and the standard deviation of the hourly observed wind speed, so as to augment the latter quantity by F standard deviations. F is an optimized factor. A third method utilizing an optimized gust factor was also applied to the hourly wind. The latter procedure estimated 2952 peak winds with an rms error of 2.81 knots, an accuracy which was not surpassed by the other methods. Peak ground wind speed data were developed for use in space shuttle design operation analyses.

Graves, M. E.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Model-independent Exoplanet Transit Spectroscopy

We propose a new data analysis method for obtaining transmission spectra of exoplanet atmospheres and brightness variation across the stellar disk from transit observations. The new method is capable of recovering exoplanet atmosphere absorption spectra and stellar specific intensities without relying on theoretical models of stars and planets. We simultaneously fit both stellar specific intensity and planetary radius directly to transit light curves. This allows stellar models to be removed from the data analysis. Furthermore, we use a data quality weighted filtering technique to achieve an optimal trade-off between spectral resolution and reconstruction fidelity homogenizing the signal-to-noise ratio across the wavelength range. Such an approach is more efficient than conventional data binning onto a low-resolution wavelength grid. We demonstrate that our analysis is capable of reproducing results achieved by using an explicit quadratic limb-darkening equation and that the filtering technique helps eliminate spurious spectral features in regions with strong telluric absorption. The method is applied to the VLT FORS2 observations of the exoplanets GJ 1214 b and WASP-49 b, and our results are in agreement with previous studies. Comparisons between obtained stellar specific intensity and numerical models indicates that the method is capable of accurately reconstructing the specific intensity. The proposed method enables more robust characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres by separating derivation of planetary transmission and stellar specific intensity spectra (that is model-independent) from chemical and physical interpretation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Predicting the mineral composition of dust aerosols – Part 2: Model evaluation and identification of key processes with observations

A global compilation of nearly sixty measurement studies is used to evaluate two methods of simulating the mineral composition of dust aerosols in an Earth system model. Both methods are based upon a Mean Mineralogical Table (MMT) that relates the soil mineral fractions to a global atlas of arid soil type. The Soil Mineral Fraction (SMF) method assumes that the aerosol mineral fractions match the fractions of the soil. The MMT is based upon soil measurements after wet sieving, a process that destroys aggregates of soil particles that would have been emitted from the original, undisturbed soil. The second method approximately reconstructs the emitted aggregates. This model is referred to as the Aerosol Mineral Fraction (AMF) method because the mineral fractions of the aerosols differ from those of the wet-sieved parent soil, partly due to reaggregation. The AMF method remedies some of the deficiencies of the SMF method in comparison to observations. Only the AMF method exhibits phyllosilicate mass at silt sizes, where they are abundant according to observations. In addition, the AMF quartz fraction of silt particles is in better agreement with measured values, in contrast to the overestimated SMF fraction. Measurements at distinct clay and silt particle sizes are shown to be more useful for evaluation of the models, in contrast to the sum over all particles sizes that is susceptible to compensating errors, as illustrated by the SMF experiment. Model errors suggest that allocation of the emitted silt fraction of each mineral into the corresponding transported size categories is an important remaining source of uncertainty. Evaluation of both models and the MMT is hindered by the limited number of size-resolved measurements of mineral content that sparsely sample aerosols from the major dust sources. In conclusion, the importance of climate processes dependent upon aerosol mineral composition shows the need for global and routine mineral measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Photospheric Convection Cells with SDO/HMI

Supergranulation is a component of solar convection that assists in the outward transportation of internal energy. Supergranule cells are approximately 35 Mm across, have lifetimes on the order of a day and have divergent horizontal velocities of around 300 m/s, a factor of 10 higher than their central radial components. While they have been observed using Doppler methods for around half a century, their existence is also observed in other datasets such as magnetograms and Ca II K images. These datasets clearly show the influence of supergranulation on solar magnetism and how the local field is organized by the flows of supergranule cells. The Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager (HMI) aboard SDO is making fresh observations of convection phenomena at a higher cadence and a higher resolution that should make granular features visible. Granulation and supergranulation characteristics can now be compared within the same datasets, which may lead to further understanding of any mutual influences. The temporal and spatial enhancements of HMI will also reduce the noise level within studies of convection so that more detailed studies of their characteristics may be made. We present analyses of SDO/HMI Dopplergrams that provide new estimates of convection cell sizes, lifetimes, and velocity flows, as well as the rotation rates of the convection patterns across the solar disk. We make comparisons with previous data produced by MDI, as well as from data simulations.

Williams, Peter E.↗
DOE OSTI2015

FERMI-LAT OBSERVATIONS OF HIGH- AND INTERMEDIATE-VELOCITY CLOUDS: TRACING COSMIC RAYS IN THE HALO OF THE MILKY WAY

It is widely accepted that cosmic rays (CRs) up to at least PeV energies are Galactic in origin. Accelerated particles are injected into the interstellar medium where they propagate to the farthest reaches of the Milky Way, including a surrounding halo. The composition of CRs coming to the solar system can be measured directly and has been used to infer the details of CR propagation that are extrapolated to the whole Galaxy. In contrast, indirect methods, such as observations of γ-ray emission from CR interactions with interstellar gas, have been employed to directly probe the CR densities in distant locations throughout the Galactic plane. In this article we use 73 months of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope in the energy range between 300 MeV and 10 GeV to search for γ-ray emission produced by CR interactions in several high- and intermediate-velocity clouds (IVCs) located at up to ∼7 kpc above the Galactic plane. We achieve the first detection of IVCs in γ rays and set upper limits on the emission from the remaining targets, thereby tracing the distribution of CR nuclei in the halo for the first time. We find that the γ-ray emissivity per H atom decreases with increasing distance from the plane at 97.5% confidence level. This corroborates the notion that CRs at the relevant energies originate in the Galactic disk. The emissivity of the upper intermediate-velocity Arch hints at a 50% decline of CR densities within 2 kpc from the plane. We compare our results to predictions of CR propagation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

AN ACCURATE NEW METHOD OF CALCULATING ABSOLUTE MAGNITUDES AND K-CORRECTIONS APPLIED TO THE SLOAN FILTER SET

We describe an accurate new method for determining absolute magnitudes, and hence also K-corrections, that is simpler than most previous methods, being based on a quadratic function of just one suitably chosen observed color. The method relies on the extensive and accurate new set of 129 empirical galaxy template spectral energy distributions from Brown et al. A key advantage of our method is that we can reliably estimate random errors in computed absolute magnitudes due to galaxy diversity, photometric error and redshift error. We derive K-corrections for the five Sloan Digital Sky Survey filters and provide parameter tables for use by the astronomical community. Using the New York Value-Added Galaxy Catalog, we compare our K-corrections with those from kcorrect. Our K-corrections produce absolute magnitudes that are generally in good agreement with kcorrect. Absolute griz magnitudes differ by less than 0.02 mag and those in the u band by ∼0.04 mag. The evolution of rest-frame colors as a function of redshift is better behaved using our method, with relatively few galaxies being assigned anomalously red colors and a tight red sequence being observed across the whole 0.0 < z < 0.5 redshift range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1983

International Halley watch amateur observers' manual for scientific comet studies. Part 1: Methods

The International Halley Watch is described as well as comets and observing techniques. Information on periodic Comet Halley's apparition for its 1986 perihelion passage is provided. Instructions are given for observation projects valuable to the International Halley Watch in six areas of study: (1) visual observations; (2) photography; (3) astrometry; (4) spectroscopic observations; (5) photoelectric photometry; and (6) meteor observations.

Edberg, S. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep neural network uncertainty quantification for LArTPC reconstruction

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural networks with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainty and robust performance against overconfidence and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples are critical for their full deployment in analyzing experimental data. While numerous UQ methods have been tested on simple datasets, performance evaluations for more complex tasks and datasets are scarce. Here we assess the application of selected deep learning UQ methods on the task of particle classification using the PiLArNet monte carlo 3D LArTPC point cloud dataset. We observe that UQ methods not only allow for better rejection of prediction mistakes and OOD detection, but also generally achieve higher overall accuracy across different task settings. We assess the precision of uncertainty quantification using different evaluation metrics, such as distributional separation of prediction entropy across correctly and incorrectly identified samples, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), and expected calibration error from observed empirical accuracy. We conclude that ensembling methods can obtain well calibrated classification probabilities and generally perform better than other existing methods in deep learning UQ literature.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗