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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗
NASA NTRS2008

Multiscale Modeling of Damage Processes in Aluminum Alloys: Grain-Scale Mechanisms

This paper has two goals related to the development of a physically-grounded methodology for modeling the initial stages of fatigue crack growth in an aluminum alloy. The aluminum alloy, AA 7075-T651, is susceptible to fatigue cracking that nucleates from cracked second phase iron-bearing particles. Thus, the first goal of the paper is to validate an existing framework for the prediction of the conditions under which the particles crack. The observed statistics of particle cracking (defined as incubation for this alloy) must be accurately predicted to simulate the stochastic nature of microstructurally small fatigue crack (MSFC) formation. Also, only by simulating incubation of damage in a statistically accurate manner can subsequent stages of crack growth be accurately predicted. To maintain fidelity and computational efficiency, a filtering procedure was developed to eliminate particles that were unlikely to crack. The particle filter considers the distributions of particle sizes and shapes, grain texture, and the configuration of the surrounding grains. This filter helps substantially reduce the number of particles that need to be included in the microstructural models and forms the basis of the future work on the subsequent stages of MSFC, crack nucleation and microstructurally small crack propagation. A physics-based approach to simulating fracture should ultimately begin at nanometer length scale, in which atomistic simulation is used to predict the fundamental damage mechanisms of MSFC. These mechanisms include dislocation formation and interaction, interstitial void formation, and atomic diffusion. However, atomistic simulations quickly become computationally intractable as the system size increases, especially when directly linking to the already large microstructural models. Therefore, the second goal of this paper is to propose a method that will incorporate atomistic simulation and small-scale experimental characterization into the existing multiscale framework. At the microscale, the nanoscale mechanics are represented within cohesive zones where appropriate, i.e. where the mechanics observed at the nanoscale can be represented as occurring on a plane such as at grain boundaries or slip planes at a crack front. Important advancements that are yet to be made include: 1. an increased fidelity in cohesive zone modeling; 2. a means to understand how atomistic simulation scales with time; 3. a new experimental methodology for generating empirical models for CZMs and emerging materials; and 4. a validation of simulations of the damage processes at the nano-micro scale. With ever-increasing computer power, the long-term ability to employ atomistic simulation for the prognosis of structural components will not be limited by computation power, but by our lack of knowledge in incorporating atomistic models into simulations of MSFC into a multiscale framework.

Hochhalter, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Towards Inner Magnetosphere Particle and Field Models

We report on the initial stages of an effort to construct comprehensive empirical models of the plasma and fields in the inner magnetosphere. The models are based not only on archival data (e.g., SCATHA) but also on current spacecraft mission data (e.g., POLAR). In this component of the effort, we incorporate the recently archived data provided by the SCATRA (Spacecraft Charging AT High Altitude) satellite. The SCAT14A satellite was in a near-geostationary orbit and was in operation for more than a decade. In this paper, we focus on the SCATRA plasma and magnetic field data from approximately the first two years of operation. The time-series data are binned according to spatial location and geomagnetic activity. Examples of statistical, empirical models from this initial effort are presented; even the simply-constructed preliminary models reveal such subtle features as the previously reported warm (greater than 100 eV) plasma density enhancement near the magnetic equator.

Spence, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Physical Validation of GPM Retrieval Algorithms Over Land: An Overview of the Mid-Latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E)

The joint NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) -- DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) was conducted from April 22-June 6, 2011, centered on the DOE-ARM Southern Great Plains Central Facility site in northern Oklahoma. GPM field campaign objectives focused on the collection of airborne and ground-based measurements of warm-season continental precipitation processes to support refinement of GPM retrieval algorithm physics over land, and to improve the fidelity of coupled cloud resolving and land-surface satellite simulator models. DOE ARM objectives were synergistically focused on relating observations of cloud microphysics and the surrounding environment to feedbacks on convective system dynamics, an effort driven by the need to better represent those interactions in numerical modeling frameworks. More specific topics addressed by MC3E include ice processes and ice characteristics as coupled to precipitation at the surface and radiometer signals measured in space, the correlation properties of rainfall and drop size distributions and impacts on dual-frequency radar retrieval algorithms, the transition of cloud water to rain water (e.g., autoconversion processes) and the vertical distribution of cloud water in precipitating clouds, and vertical draft structure statistics in cumulus convection. The MC3E observational strategy relied on NASA ER-2 high-altitude airborne multi-frequency radar (HIWRAP Ka-Ku band) and radiometer (AMPR, CoSMIR; 10-183 GHz) sampling (a GPM "proxy") over an atmospheric column being simultaneously profiled in situ by the University of North Dakota Citation microphysics aircraft, an array of ground-based multi-frequency scanning polarimetric radars (DOE Ka-W, X and C-band; NASA D3R Ka-Ku and NPOL S-bands) and wind-profilers (S/UHF bands), supported by a dense network of over 20 disdrometers and rain gauges, all nested in the coverage of a six-station mesoscale rawinsonde network. As an exploratory effort to examine land-surface emissivity impacts on retrieval algorithms, and to demonstrate airborne soil moisture retrieval capabilities, the University of Tennessee Space Institute Piper aircraft carrying the MAPIR L-band radiometer was also flown during the latter half of the experiment in coordination with the ER-2. The observational strategy provided a means to sample the atmospheric column in a redundant framework that enables inter-calibration and constraint of measured and retrieved precipitation characteristics such as particle size distributions, or water contents- all within the umbrella of "proxy" satellite measurements (i.e., the ER-2). Complimenting the precipitation sampling framework, frequent and coincident launches of atmospheric soundings (e.g., 4-8/day) then provided a much larger mesoscale view of the thermodynamic and winds environment, a data set useful for initializing cloud models. The datasets collected represent a variety cloud and precipitation types including isolated cumulus clouds, severe thunderstorms, mesoscale convective systems, and widespread regions of light to moderate stratiform precipitation. We will present the MC3E experiment design, an overview of operations, and a summary of preliminary results.

Petersen, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Temperature Data Assimilation with Salinity Corrections: Validation for the NSIPP Ocean Data Assimilation System in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, 1993-1998

The NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) has developed an Ocean data assimilation system to initialize the quasi-isopycnal ocean model used in our experimental coupled-model forecast system. Initial tests of the system have focused on the assimilation of temperature profiles in an optimal interpolation framework. It is now recognized that correction of temperature only often introduces spurious water masses. The resulting density distribution can be statically unstable and also have a detrimental impact on the velocity distribution. Several simple schemes have been developed to try to correct these deficiencies. Here the salinity field is corrected by using a scheme which assumes that the temperature-salinity relationship of the model background is preserved during the assimilation. The scheme was first introduced for a zlevel model by Troccoli and Haines (1999). A large set of subsurface observations of salinity and temperature is used to cross-validate two data assimilation experiments run for the 6-year period 1993-1998. In these two experiments only subsurface temperature observations are used, but in one case the salinity field is also updated whenever temperature observations are available.

Troccoli, Alberto↗
NASA NTRS1991

Extension-bend-twist coupling behavior of thin-walled advanced composite beams with initial twist

An analytical model is developed for assessing the extension-bend-twist coupling behavior of nonhomogeneous anisotropic beams with initial twist. The model is formulated as a coupled two-dimensional boundary value problem, where the displacement solutions are defined with pretwist-dependent functions that represent the extension, bending, and torsion, and unknown functions that represent local in-plane deformations and out-of-plane cross-section warping. The unknown deformation functions are determined by applying the principle of minimum potential energy to a discretized representation of the cross section. Numerical results are presented that fully verify this approach and illustrate the strong extension-twist coupling behavior present in pretwisted beams with thin-wall laminated composite cross sections as a function of ply angle, initial twist level, and initial twist axis location. Cross-sections analyzed include; thin laminated rectangles with either asymmetric or symmetric ply stacking sequences and a thin-wall single cell D-section composed of a graphite/epoxy woven cloth.

Kosmatka, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1968

Region of acceptable motions.

Mathematical model for initial conditions of asymptotically stable nonlinear control system to estimate region of acceptable motions

Julich, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Dynamic passivation of a spinning and tumbling satellite using free-flying teleoperators.

A satellite will generally have some initial angular motion. Before the satellite can be retrieved, it will be necessary to null its angular rates. A method is presented for nulling the simultaneous angular rates for cylindrical and near-cylindrical satellites. It is assumed that there are no external torques acting on the satellite initially. A model is being fabricated to verify the analysis. The analysis shows that it is feasible to null the spin and tumble rates for cylindrical and near-cylindrical satellites with an arm attached to a remote manipulator unit.

Faile, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Ultraviolet observations of Titan from OAO-2

High altitude deposition of energy in Titan's atmosphere can have a significant effect on the spectral distribution of emitted thermal radiation from the satellite. This reasoning led to the prediction of emission peaks at wavelengths corresponding to allowed bands of CH4 and trace photolysis products such as C2H6. Intermediate resolution infrared spectrophotometry has encouraged this interpretation of the infrared properties of Titan, and provided the basis for initial, detailed model.

Caldwell, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Transequatorial effects of sea-surface temperature anomalies in a global general circulation model

An effort is made to describe the development of the model atmosphere's response to the sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in terms of their effect on the pole-to-pole meridional profile of the zonal mean 600-mb surface, which represents approximately the middle level of the model. The initial effect of a positive SST anomaly located in extratropical latitudes of the Pacific Ocean is found to be an inflation of the isobaric surfaces, relative to a control run, within the latitude band of the warm pool. In experiments with a North Pacific warm pool, the inflation continued for about 3 weeks in both winter and summer.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The clouds of Venus

The current state of knowledge of the Venusian clouds is reviewed. The visible clouds of Venus are shown to be quite similar to low level terrestrial hazes of strong anthropogenic influence. Possible nucleation and particle growth mechanisms are presented. The Pioneer Venus experiments that emphasize cloud measurements are described and their expected findings are discussed in detail. The results of these experiments should define the cloud particle composition, microphysics, thermal and radiative heat budget, rough dynamical features and horizontal and vertical variations in these and other parameters. This information should be sufficient to initialize cloud models which can be used to explain the cloud formation, decay, and particle life cycle.

Knollenberg, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solid state SPS microwave generation and transmission study. Volume 2, phase 2: Appendices

The solid state sandwich concept for SPS was further defined. The design effort concentrated on the spacetenna, but did include some system analysis for parametric comparison reasons. Basic solid state microwave devices were defined and modeled. An initial conceptual subsystems and system design was performed as well as sidelobe control and system selection. The selected system concept and parametric solid state microwave power transmission system data were assessed relevant to the SPS concept. Although device efficiency was not a goal, the sensitivities to design of this efficiency were parametrically treated. Sidelobe control consisted of various single step tapers, multistep tapers and Gaussian tapers. A hybrid concept using tubes and solid state was evaluated. Thermal analyses are included with emphasis on sensitivities to waste heat radiator form factor, emissivity, absorptivity, amplifier efficiency, material and junction temperature.

Maynard, O. E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Control system development for an organic Ranking cycle engine

An organic Rankine cycle engine is used as part of a solar thermal power conversion assembly (PCA). The PCA, including a direct-heated cavity receiver and a shaft-mounted alternator, is mounted at the focal point of a parabolic dish concentrator. The engine controls are required to maintain approximately constant values of turbine inlet temperature and shaft speed, despite variation in the concentrated solar power input to the receiver. The controls design approach, system models, and initial stability and performance analysis results are presented herein.

Bergthold, F. M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1982

CIRSS vertical data integration, San Bernardino study

The creation and use of a vertically integrated data base, including LANDSAT data, for local planning purposes in a portion of San Bernardino County, California are described. The project illustrates that a vertically integrated approach can benefit local users, can be used to identify and rectify discrepancies in various data sources, and that the LANDSAT component can be effectively used to identify change, perform initial capability/suitability modeling, update existing data, and refine existing data in a geographic information system. Local analyses were developed which produced data of value to planners in the San Bernardino County Planning Department and the San Bernardino National Forest staff.

Hodson, W.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Small particle transport across turbulent nonisothermal boundary layers

The interaction between turbulent diffusion, Brownian diffusion, and particle thermophoresis in the limit of vanishing particle inertial effects is quantitatively modeled for applications in gas turbines. The model is initiated with consideration of the particle phase mass conservation equation for a two-dimensional boundary layer, including the thermophoretic flux term directed toward the cold wall. A formalism of a turbulent flow near a flat plate in a heat transfer problem is adopted, and variable property effects are neglected. Attention is given to the limit of very large Schmidt numbers and the particle concentration depletion outside of the Brownian sublayer. It is concluded that, in the parameter range of interest, thermophoresis augments the high Schmidt number mass-transfer coefficient by a factor equal to the product of the outer sink and the thermophoretic suction.

Rosner, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Regional scale simulation of atmospheric structure using VAS data

Investigations with both Subsynoptic Scale Model (SSM) and Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS) are directed at model static initializations using Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) derived temperatures and moistures and also satellite derived winds. The general approach for each day's case study is similar. A 12-hour control forecast (no satellite data) is made 12Z-OZ, using a radiosonde analysis at 12Z as the initial field. For the satellite data experiments, reanalyses are performed at intermediate times, using VAS soundings or VAS soundings in combination with satellite winds. Forecasts are subsequently made from the reanalysis time(s) to the same validation hour (OZ) as the control forecasts. Comparisons are then made between the control forecast and satellite experiments.

Disk, G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The investigation of tethered satellite system dynamics

Tethered satellite system (TSS) dynamics were studied. The dynamic response of the TSS during the entire stationkeeping phase for the first electrodynamic mission was investigated. An out of plane swing amplitude and the tether's bowing were observed. The dynamics of the slack tether was studied and computer code, SLACK2, was improved both in capabilities and computational speed. Speed hazard related to tether breakage or plasma contactor failure was examined. Preliminary values of the potential difference after the failure and of the drop of the electric field along the tether axis have been computed. The update of the satellite rotational dynamics model is initiated.

Lorenzini, E.↗