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Quasi-Newton Variational Bayes v.3.0
SAND2024-09052O Quasi-Newton Variational Bayes (QNVB) is a training algorithm that performs high-dimensional variational inference on machine learning models. It provides mechanisms to calibrate and control model uncertainty during training. The PyTorch implementation of projective integral updates for Gaussian mean-fields supports the manuscript, "Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference." Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study
The 2014-2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study collected information about household and individual travel patterns for residents throughout a four-county region in Washington State. Study results were used to update the region's travel and land-use models and to calibrate local traffic and travel models. The study also helped the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) and its regional partners develop plans that accommodate the diverse travel needs and preferences of residents. The Resource Systems Group administered the study on behalf of PSRC. Global positioning system (GPS)-equipped smartphones were used to provide data pertaining to the daily travel of 547 individual participants. Because the region's university students may have been underrepresented in the initial 2014 household travel study, the PSRC added a college-population travel survey in fall 2014. In spring 2015, a second household data collection effort was conducted to increase the frequency of data collection and to collect GPS data as well as a sample of longitudinal data from households that completed the 2014 survey.
Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling
The Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1-1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3, documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation is to describe the application of the hydraulic property fields and recharge parameters documented in ECF-HANFORD-20-0027, Null Space Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Plateau to River Model, to the CA flow and fate and transport simulation results to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated results due to input parameter selection. Use of numerical groundwater models is always accompanied with uncertainty in the results produced by a model because models are approximations of reality. Thus, by definition, models lack the detail to fully represent observed behavior. Use of numerical techniques, such as a NSMC analysis, can help in identifying and quantifying the potential uncertainties associated with a numerical model such as the P2R Model. The result of NSCM analysis is a set of F&T simulations that provide an estimate of the range of possible outcomes that are used to quantify the uncertainty in simulated concentrations produced using the base case simulations. The simulated concentrations from all simulations will support calculation of the uncertainty of the total dose calculated in a separate calculation.
Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling
The Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the composite analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application.
Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulation with P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Limited Source Sensitivity Case.
The Plateau to River (P2R) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by the Central Plateau Cleanup Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. Simulations conducted to support the dose calculations required by the CA are documented in ECF-HANFORD-19-0119, Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case and ECF-HANFORD-19-0120, Contaminant Transport Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case.
CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US
This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections based on the hydroclimate projections dataset supporting the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). The six-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled using statistical (i.e., DBCCA) and dynamical (i.e., RegCM) and bias-corrected using two meteorological reference observations (Daymet & Livneh) are driven through two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC & PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. This leads to the production of an ensemble of hydroclimate projections, including total runoff (surface runoff and baseflow) for 1980–2019 baseline and 2020–2059 near-term future periods under multiple emission scenarios at 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution across the CONUS. The total runoff projections are routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to produce an ensemble of streamflow projections for both periods across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the CONUS.
Development of a thermal creep model for aluminum alloy 6061 cladding in U-10Mo monolithic fuel plates
Plate-type fuel elements consisting of a high-density, low-enriched uranium (LEU) U–10Mo-based fuel foil encapsulated in an aluminum alloy (AA) cladding are fabricated using the hot isostatic pressing (HIP) technique. During the HIP process, the fuel plate system is heated to 560 °C, then cooled to room temperature. This heat cycle significantly affects the mechanical properties of the aluminum cladding, and experimental investigations have shown that, post-HIP bonding, the mechanical properties of the aluminum cladding transition from those of AA 6061-T6 to something closer to the O temper. More specifically, the ultimate strength of the cladding decreases while its ductility increases, making it challenging to capture the changes in mechanical behavior and material properties. Understanding the residual stresses generated during the HIP process is critical for assessing the fuel plate’s integrity under various temperature, pressure, and irradiation. To simulate the HIP bonding process, the elastic, plastic, and thermal properties of the cladding are assumed to be similar to those of AA 6061-O temper. However, the primary challenge lies in the lack of available data for the creep model of the AA 6061 cladding during this transient process of HIP. The present study focuses on developing a computational model that predicts the creep behavior of the aluminum cladding in the fuel plates during the HIP process, as cladding creep significantly influences the residual stresses generated in U-10Mo fuel plates during HIP fabrication. Furthermore, as HIP bonding occurs at high temperatures that are nearing the melting point of aluminum, the present work considered a temperature-dependent Arrhenius-type creep model. In particular, a hyperbolic sine creep model is employed to estimate the creep properties of the as-fabricated aluminum cladding. In conclusion, the residual stresses predicted in the U-10Mo fuel when using the newly calibrated creep model closely align with the experimental measurements, validating the model’s accuracy.
Advective gas flow in bentonite: Development and comparison of enhanced multi-phase numerical approaches
Understanding the impact of repository gas, generated from degradation of waste and its interaction with the host rock, is essential when assessing the performance and safety function of long-term disposal systems for radioactive waste. Numerical models based on conventional multi-phase flow theory have historically been applied to predict the outcome and impact of gas flow on different repository components. However, they remain unable to describe the full complexity of the physical processes observed in water-saturated experiments (e.g., creation of dilatant pathways) and thus, the development of novel representations for their description is required when assessing fully saturated clay-based systems. This was the primary focus of Task A within the international cooperative project DECOVALEX-2019 (D-2019) and refinement of these approaches is the primary focus of this study (Task B in the current phase of DECOVALEX-2023). This paper summarises development of enhanced numerical representations of key processes and compares the performance of each model against high-quality laboratory test data. Experimental data reveals that gas percolation in water-saturated compacted bentonite is characterised by four key features: (i) a quiescence phase, followed by (ii) the gas breakthrough, which leads to a (iii) peak value, which is then followed by (iv) a negative decay. Three models based on the multiphase flow theory have been developed. These models can provide good initial values and reasonable responses for gas breakthrough (although some of them still predict a too-smooth response). Peak gas pressure values are in general reasonably well captured, although maximum radial stress differences are observed at 48 mm from the base of the sample. Here, numerical peak values of 12.8 MPa are predicted, whereas experimental values are about 11 MPa. These models are also capable of providing a reasonable representation of the negative pressure decay following peak pressure. However, other key specific features (such as the timing of gas breakthrough) still require a better representation. The model simulations and their comparison with experimental data show that these models need to be further improved with respect to model parameter calibration, the numerical representation of spatial heterogeneities in material properties and flow localisation, and the upscaling of the related physical processes and parameters. To further understand gas flow localisation, a new conceptual model has been developed, which shows that discrete channels can possibly be induced through the instability of gas-bentonite interface during gas injection, thus providing a new perspective for modeling gas percolation in low-permeability deformable media.
MatCal Users Guide: Release 1.3.0
Any continuum mechanics model will require three components: (1) a discretized geometry of the boundary value problem being studied, (2) the partial differential equations to be solved, and (3) the initial conditions and boundary conditions for the problem. To describe material behavior in these computational models, material models contribute to (2) the underlying equations and, occasionally, to (3) the initial conditions for the simulation. These material models can exhibit a mathematical form that is empirically based, based on first principles, or developed from both empirical observations and known physics. In general, these models are meant to represent a class of materials with well understood behavior. As a result, material models have parameters that must be tuned or calibrated so that the model response matches characterization data available for the specific material it is intended to represent when used to simulate a specific system. For simple models, such as isotropic, linear elastic materials in solid mechanics, this calibration process can be a simple analytical calculation directly extracting the parameters from experimental measurements. For complex models that have many inputs and require many characterization datasets to adequately identify the material behavior, the model calibration process can require an inverse problem approach where an optimization is performed to tune the model parameters to the available data.
Dynamic calibration of differential equations using machine learning, with application to turbulence models
We present a methodology for calibration of parametric ordinary and partial differential equation models, using off-the-shelf software for back-propagation in Neural Networks (NN). As a prototypical example, we consider calibration of a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closure model, against ground truth data from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of two different turbulent flows. Numerical time integration is represented as a custom NN, where only the RANS model parameters are trainable. A loss function is defined to quantify the mismatch between the NN prediction and the ground truth over a predefined, finite time integration window. This loss function is then minimized using a gradient descent method utilizing the back-propagation algorithm. Furthermore, this dynamic approach to training is to be contrasted with a static approach, wherein a least square regression estimate for parameters is obtained in the limit of an infinitesimal time integration window. In a first test of static and dynamic approaches against ground truth data generated by the model, the former proves to be significantly faster and more accurate than the latter at recovering the parameters. When both calibration approaches are tested against DNS data, for which it is known that the model cannot achieve a perfect fit, the static approach yields a good prediction only for short times, while the dynamic approach results in physical and stable predictions over the entire integration window. After optimization of the dynamic approach for time step, spatial resolution, stability, and physics-based constraints, we obtain a 50% improvement of outcomes over those obtained from the existing, manually calibrated set of parameters, demonstrating the merits of this systematic and automated procedure.
FFT-based model for irradiated aggregate microstructures in concrete
The concrete biological shield of light water reactors is exposed to neutron and gamma irradiation throughout its lifetime, which results in the long-term degradation of the concrete’s mechanical properties. Under neutron irradiation, the concrete’s aggregates are subjected to radiation-induced volumetric expansion (RIVE), which strongly depends on the mineral content of the aggregate and exhibits the largest expansion in silicate-bearing minerals. In this work, the authors used the fast Fourier transform-based code Microstructure-Oriented Scientific Analysis of Irradiated Concrete (MOSAIC) in 2D to model the expansion of five different aggregates provided by the Japan Concrete Aging Management Program (JCAMP). Comparable rock specimens were irradiated at the JEEP-II test reactor. The model uses realistic aggregate microstructure reconstruction based on high-resolution characterization images. The model accounts for anisotropic RIVE, thermal expansion, and the associated initiation and propagation of damage. The RIVE models are calibrated based on expansion data in the literature. The authors assume that damage occurs exclusively at interfaces between the particles that compose an aggregate and that these interfaces also exhibit swelling. Using a micromechanical model, the evolution of Young’s modulus with RIVE is calculated for each aggregate and compared with Russian irradiation data. The modeled linear expansion agrees well with the experimentally measured expansion. Furthermore, the model also predicts that anisotropic RIVE and thermal expansion result in an earlier onset of damage with neutron fluence than in the isotropic case.
Discrete element modeling of switchgrass particles under compression and rotational shear
Switchgrass is a perennial herbaceous plant regarded as a biomass energy crop in the United States for its highadaptability and yield potential. Processing and handling of switchgrass particles are challenging due to the erratic mechanical and flow behavior originating from their intrinsic particulate properties. Here, we present a bonded-sphere discrete element model designed specifically for switchgrass particles. The model simultaneously captures three key particulate features, i.e., fibrous particle shapes, a wide range of particle sizes, and particle deformability. Realistic yet computationally efficient particle shape templates are created based on the image analysis data of switchgrass specimens. A fitting procedure is proposed to ensure both the particle width and length distributions are captured, a unique requirement for fibrous particles. Two full-scale numerical models, i.e., a uniaxial compression model and a Schulze ring shear model, are developed using information fromphysical experiments. The model is calibrated using experimental data of chopped-small switchgrass specimens, and then, is validated using data of chopped-large specimens in both compression and ring-shear tests. Numerical results show that the numerical models capture bulk densities accurately (with an error of 3%) while slightly underestimate the bulk friction angle. Furthermore, an extensive sensitivity analysis reveals that (1) switchgrass particles with rougher edges (due to different processing techniques) exhibit a higher shear strength and a lower flowability; (2) stiffer particles yield a lower bulk density (up to 21% lower) compared to more deformable particles, indicating particle deformability should be incorporated when modeling biomass flow in a preprocessing system.
Agora : Multicomponent simulation for cross-survey science
ABSTRACT Next-generation cosmological surveys will observe large portions of the sky, with significant overlap between them. Multi-wavelength observations will enable us to analyse the same large-scale structure from different angles using a variety of tracers and astrophysical effects. The complex interplay between these observables calls for a model that can accurately and coherently describe their collective behaviour, posing a challenge that can only be met through the use of simulations. In this work, a suite of simulated extragalactic skies is presented, including maps and/or catalogues of cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, thermal and kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ/kSZ) effects, cosmic infrared background (CIB), radio sources, galaxy overdensity and galaxy weak lensing. Each of these probes is implemented in the lightcone using halo catalogues and/or particles from the Multidark-Planck2 ($\small {MDPL2}$) N-body simulation, and the modelling is calibrated using hydrodynamic simulations and publicly available data. The auto and cross-spectra of the individual probes, as well as the cross-spectra between the observables, are shown to be consistent with theoretical models and measurements from data. The simulation is shown to have a wide range of applications, including forecasting, pipeline testing, and evaluating astrophysical biases in cross-correlation measurements. It is further demonstrated that the simulation products produced in this work have sufficient accuracy to recover the input cosmology when subjected to a full cosmological analysis and are ready for application in real-world analyses for ongoing and future surveys. The simulation products presented in this work can be accessed at: https://yomori.github.io/agora/index.html.
Comparing Calibration Algorithms for the Rapid Characterization of Pretreated Corn Stover Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy
Rapid characterization of biomass composition is a key enabling technology for biorefineries—the ability to measure the chemical composition of biomass materials entering the biorefinery as well as the composition of key process intermediate streams would allow real-time process control and the development of robust models to predict process performance. The utility of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy for rapid characterization requires multivariate algorithms for building calibration models. The most prevalent algorithm used for building calibration models using NIR spectra is the linear modeling algorithm Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS). Nonlinear regression algorithms (which are typically more computationally intensive than linear modeling approaches) have gained popularity in recent years due to their ability to solve a wide variety of classification and regression problems and the dramatic increase in available computational resources. In this work, we demonstrate that a calibration model can predict the composition of corn stover process intermediate samples pretreated with three different treatments—hot water (HW), dilute acid (DA), and deacetylation followed by dilute acid (DDA). We quantitatively compare three different algorithms for building prediction models based on near-infrared spectroscopy—partial least squares (PLS), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We demonstrate the utility of improving model performance by accounting for instrument performance variability using repeated measurements of standard materials (e.g., the “repeatability file” strategy) and investigate its performance with nonlinear regression techniques, and we discuss methods for quantifying the uncertainties of specific predictions among the three methods.
CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US, Version 1.1
This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections covering the conterminous United States (CONUS), developed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). Multiple Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) were downscaled using either statistical (DBCCA) or dynamical (RegCM) downscaling methods, based on two meteorological reference datasets (Daymet and Livneh). Subsequently, the downscaled precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data were used to drive two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC and PRMS), with total runoff routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model, producing an ensemble of streamflow projections across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across the CONUS. Each ensemble member covers the 1980-2019 baseline and 2020-2059 near-future periods under the high-end (SSP585) emission scenario. Additionally, using only DBCCA and Daymet, the projections extend to the 2060-2099 far-future period and encompass three additional emission scenarios (SSP370, SSP245, and SSP126). This dataset is designed to support the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Rastogi et al. (2022), and Ghimire et al. (2023).
25-Pin metallic fuel performance benchmark case based on the EBR-II X430 experiments series
A metallic fuel benchmark case was developed for the fuel performance code BISON based on 25 uranium-zirconium and uranium-plutonium-zirconium pins of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II X430 experiment series. Results of the benchmarks were compared with measurements and calculations made at the time of the experiment as well as subsequent measurements reported in 2019. The comparisons were used to quantify the accuracy of the BISON predictions and to identify patterns in the BISON differences.BISON predicted burnup, plenum pressure, and fission gas release fractions accurately. BISON temperature predictions were somewhat cooler than the temperatures determined at the time of the experiment but appeared to be reasonably accurate considering uncertainties in the legacy temperature calculations, uncertainties in the legacy linear heat rate calculations, and the high sensitivities of the BISON-predicted temperatures to BISON inputs. Fuel axial elongation predictions had errors correlated to fuel composition; BISON tended to underpredict the elongation of binary fuels and overpredict the elongation of ternary fuels. BISON cladding radial dilation predictions were also significantly lower than legacy PIE measurements.Recommendations were made to improve the BISON fuel gaseous swelling model to account for fuel composition, to add additional capabilities to the coolant channel temperature model to ease benchmark development, and to continue developing benchmark cases based on a wide range of experiments in several reactors. Once a wide array of benchmarks is developed, an attempt can be made to enhance or calibrate BISON models to improve the cladding dilation predictions.
Integrated Strategies for Overcoming Resolution Limits in Electron Beam Lithography of Chemically Amplified Resists
Electron beam lithography (EBL) of chemically amplified resists (CARs) faces fundamental challenges, including stochastic electron scattering and acid diffusion, that limit resolution and reproducibility. Using SU-8 as a model CAR, this study systematically investigated complementary strategies to address these challenges, combining multipass exposure, proximity effect correction (PEC) with midrange correction factors, base quencher incorporation, and post-exposure bake (PEB) suppression. Monte Carlo simulations and calibrated PEC modeling revealed that extending the point spread function to include a midrange scattering component significantly improved critical dimension (CD) control across varying pattern densities, correcting deviations that conventional two-term PEC failed to capture. Multipass exposure, particularly 4-pass writing with a 25% offset, redistributed the dose to average stochastic beam and scattering fluctuations, reducing line-width roughness by more than 50% and yielding more uniform nanoscale features. Photoacid confinement was investigated by adding urea as a base quencher, which successfully reduced acid diffusion but introduced substantial sensitivity penalties without improving ultimate resolution or Z-factor performance, underscoring the trade-offs of chemical versus physical confinement. Suppressing PEB most directly minimized acid diffusion, resulting in improved Z-factors and reproducible 30 nm half-pitch dense line/space patterns. Overall, these results demonstrated that PEC with midrange correction, multipass strategies, quencher additives, and PEB-free processing addresses different aspects of the EBL process window and that their integration provides a comprehensive framework for managing stochastic scattering, diffusion, and chemical amplification effects. This framework advances dense nanoscale patterning in CARs and establishes guiding principles for optimizing resist design and process strategies in high-resolution EBL and potentially other advanced lithographies, such as extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.