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At least 631 records · Page 35

Beam energy dependence of net- Λ fluctuations measured by the STAR experiment at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

The measurements of particle multiplicity distributions have generated considerable interest in understanding the fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers in the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) hadronization regime, in particular near a possible critical point and near the chemical freeze-out. Net-protons and net-kaons have been used as proxies for the net-baryon number and net-strangeness, respectively. We report the measurement of efficiency- and centrality-bin width-corrected cumulant ratios (C 2 /C 1 , C 3 /C 2 ) of net- Λ distributions, in the context of both strangeness and baryon number conservation, as a function of collision energy, centrality, and rapidity. The results are for Au + Au collisions at five beam energies ( √s NN = 19.6 , 27, 39, 62.4, and 200 GeV) recorded with the Solenoidal Tracker at RHIC (STAR). We compare our results to the Poisson and negative binomial (NBD) expectations, as well as to ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics (UrQMD) and hadron resonance gas (HRG) model predictions. Both NBD and Poisson baselines agree with data within the statistical and systematic uncertainties. UrQMD describes the measured net- Λ C 1 and C 3 at 200 GeV reasonably well but deviates from C 2 , and the deviation increases as a function of collision energy. The ratios of the measured cumulants show no features of critical fluctuations. The chemical freeze-out temperatures extracted from a recent HRG calculation, which was successfully used to describe the net-proton, net-kaon, and net-charge data, indicate Λ freeze-out conditions similar to those of kaons. However, large deviations are found when comparing with temperatures obtained from net-proton fluctuations. The net- Λ cumulants show a weak but finite dependence on the rapidity coverage in the acceptance of the detector, which can be attributed to quantum number conservation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Stakeholder-Engaged Structured Decision Making for the Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Mission - 20501

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) environmental legacy cleanup program requires decisions to be made for environmental remediation, decommissioning and disposal or management of radioactive waste. This legacy cleanup program was established to address groundwater contamination, material disposal areas (MDAs) that have been used to dispose of radioactive and other waste material, and 'aggregate areas' that might produce radioactive or other chemical waste as a result of remediation activities. The LANL site is regulated for environmental concerns under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). However, some parts of LANL, such as material disposal area G (MDA G), have disposed of radioactive waste under DOE Order 435.1, and are subject to other regulations. For example, decommissioning the remote-handled TRU material stored in 33 shafts at MDA G falls under EPA's 40 CFR 191. Collectively, the regulations are all aimed in the same direction of finding the best solution, either through constructs such as 'as low as reasonably achievable' (ALARA), considering balancing factors as opposed to only cost and human health risk, and, under EPA regulations such as RCRA and NEPA, evaluating impact from all chemicals and both human health and ecological endpoints. Despite the basic goals and objectives of the regulations or their guidance, the main challenge is in their implementation. Arguably perhaps, but really in principle, all of these (and similar) regulations are asking for a decision analysis to be performed. Implementation challenges encountered have included lack of understanding of decision analysis in the industry, lack of effective stakeholder engagement in the decision analysis process, and lack of appreciation of the need to separate value judgments from science, the latter leading to developing conservative, or protective, science-based models. Conservative models lead to poor solutions, lack of effective stakeholder engagement leads to long drawn out protracted approaches to finding a solution (which also might never be found with this approach), and lack of understanding of decision analysis and Bayesian statistics causes poor models to be built, which creates unfortunate situations of 'garbage in, garbage out' becoming the basis for decision making. Stakeholder-engaged structured decision making (SDM) is an approach to solving problems that relies on the theory of decision science to involve stakeholders in the decision-making process. This approach incorporates stakeholder values using a scientifically rigorous methodology that separates value judgments from science in a way that helps avoid the pitfalls of biased, protective, or conservative modeling. This approach has its foundation in Keeney's 1992 treatise on value-focused thinking [1]. Keeney advocated a paradigm shift in decision making based on the idea that the standard way of thinking about decisions is backwards. The standard approach of focusing first on identifying alternatives rather than on articulating values results in a reactive approach with the emphasis on mechanics and fixed choices instead of the core values that have meaning to stakeholders. This paradigm shift effectively engages all stakeholders in the decision-making process while using a values focused thinking approach that can lead to the identification of decision opportunities and the creation of better alternatives. The intent is to be proactive and generate solutions that are related directly to values and objectives as identified by stakeholders. There are, perhaps, two overarching reasons why SDM can be used to benefit LANL's environmental legacy cleanup. Some of LANL's remaining waste management and environmental management problems are challenging and complex (for example, the Cr and RDX plumes, and MDAs) and while the traditional approach has, arguably, worked well for relatively simple risk-based problems, it cannot, or should not, be applied to more complex problems if the most effective and efficient solutions are desired. The second reason is cost. This has perhaps become more critical since publication of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that DoE's environmental liability is considered a high-risk concern for the nation [2]. The focus of SDM is on structuring solutions to decision risk problems by first addressing stakeholder and decision maker values and subsequently developing decision objectives and ways to measure those objectives, preference weighting across objectives, identifying decision alternatives that best achieve those values, and characterizing uncertainty in predictions of the measures. Because a complete decision model is created using SDM, it can be evaluated to find the main elements of the model that drive, or predict, the best solution. This approach creates complete decision models that are transparent, traceable, reproducible and technically defensible. The science behind SDM, or decision analysis, is well founded, yet it is not unusual to see ad hoc approaches to decision making implemented under various environmental regulations that are pertinent to the LANL site, including NEPA, RCRA and DOE Order 435.1. Such ad hoc approaches are often not transparent or traceable, and lack reproducibility and technical defensibility. The LANL legacy cleanup program has embarked on using SDM to address the complex problems that remain. Stakeholder meetings have been held, and a prototype version of the stakeholder value system has been developed. Further meetings are expected in the future to address specific project needs. This is a long-term endeavor considering the complex environmental problems faced by DOE EM in Los Alamos (EM-LA), and careful planning, consideration of stakeholder value systems, and engagement with stakeholders throughout the SDM process is expected to lead to a successful endpoint. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Studying baryon acoustic oscillations using photometric redshifts from the DESI Legacy Imaging survey DR9

Context. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Survey DR9 (DR9 hereafter), with its extensive dataset of galaxy locations and photometric redshifts, presents an opportunity to study baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) in the region covered by the ongoing spectroscopic survey with DESI. Aims. We aim to investigate differences between different parts of the DR9 footprint. Furthermore, we want to measure the BAO scale for luminous red galaxies within them. Our selected redshift range of 0.6–0.8 corresponds to the bin in which a tension between DESI Y1 and eBOSS was found. Methods. We calculated the anisotropic two-point correlation function in a modified binning scheme to detect the BAOs in DR9 data. We then used template fits based on simulations to measure the BAO scale in the imaging data. Results. Our analysis reveals the expected correlation function shape in most of the footprint areas, showing a BAO scale consistent with Planck’s observations. Aside from identified mask-related data issues in the southern region of the South Galactic Cap, we find a notable variance between the different footprints. Conclusions. We find that this variance is consistent with the difference between the DESI Y1 and eBOSS data, and it supports the argument that that tension is caused by sample variance. Additionally, we also uncovered systematic biases not previously accounted for in photometric BAO studies. We emphasize the necessity of adjusting for the systematic shift in the BAO scale associated with typical photometric redshift uncertainties to ensure accurate measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The cross-correlation of galaxies in absorption with the Lyman α forest

ABSTRACT We present the first clustering measurement of Strong Blended Lyman α (SBLA) absorption systems by measuring their cross-correlation with the Lyman α forest. SBLAs are a new population of absorbers detected within the Lyman α forest. We find a bias of 2.329 ± 0.057, consistent with that of Damped Lyman α absorbers (DLAs). For DLAs, we recover a bias of 2.331 ± 0.057 larger than previously reported. We also find a redshift space distortion parameter β = 0.417 ± 0.010, also consistent with the recovered value for DLAs (β = 0.416 ± 0.010). This is consistent with SBLA and DLA systems tracing different portions of the circumgalactic medium of a broadly common population of galaxies. Given these common clustering properties, we combined them to perform a cross-correlation of galaxies in absorption with the Lyα forest. We find that the BAO scale uncertainty of this new measurement is 1.75 × that of Lyα autocorrelation and 1.6 × that of the quasar cross-correlation with the Lyα forest. We note that the current preferred metal contamination model for fitting the correlation functions with respect to the Lyα forest is not realistic enough for SBLA systems, likely due to their status as high redshift precision sites of high metal enrichment. Mock spectra including SBLA systems and their associated metal absorption are required to understand this sample fully. We conclude that SBLAs have the potential to complement the standard Lyα cosmological analyses in future surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Absolute calibration of the Lyman-α measurement apparatus at DIII-D

The LLAMA (Lyman-Alpha Measurement Apparatus) diagnostic was recently installed on the DIII-D tokamak [Rosenthal et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. (submitted) (2020)]. LLAMA is a pinhole camera system with a narrow band Bragg mirror, a bandpass interference filter, and an absolute extreme ultraviolet photodiode detector array, which measures the Ly-α brightness in the toroidal direction on the inboard, high field side (HFS) and outboard, low field side (LFS). This contribution presents a setup and a procedure for an absolute calibration near the Ly-α line at 121.6 nm. The LLAMA in-vacuum components are designed as a compact, transferable setup that can be mounted in an ex situ vacuum enclosure that is equipped with an absolutely calibrated Ly-α source. The spectral purity and stability of the Ly-α source are characterized using a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer, while the Ly-α source brightness is measured by a NIST-calibrated photodiode. The non-uniform nature of the Ly-α source emission was overcome by performing a calibration procedure that scans the Ly-α source position and employs a numerical optimization to determine the emission pattern. Nominal and measured calibration factors are determined and compared, showing agreement within their uncertainties. A first conversion of the measured signal obtained from DIII-D indicates that the Ly-α brightness on the HFS and LFS is on the order of 1020 Ph sr-1 m-2 s-1. The established calibration setup and procedure will be regularly used to re-calibrate the LLAMA during DIII-D vents to monitor possible degradation of optical components and detectors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Constraining the destruction rate of K 40 in stellar nucleosynthesis through the study of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction

Background: We present that K 40 plays a significant role in the radiogenic heating of Earth-like exoplanets, which can affect the development of a habitable environment on their surfaces. The initial amount of K 40 in the interior of these planets depends on the composition of the interstellar clouds from which they formed. Within this context, nuclear reactions that regulate the production of K 40 during stellar evolution can play a critical role. Purpose: In this study, we constrain for the first time the astrophysical reaction rate of K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 , which is responsible for the destruction of K 40 during stellar nucleosynthesis. We provide to the nuclear physics community high-resolution data on the cross section and angular distribution of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction. These are important to various applications involving Ar 40 . The associated reaction rate of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 process addresses a reaction rate gap in the Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics REACLIB database in the region of intermediate-mass isotopes. Methods: We performed differential cross-section measurements on the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction, for six energies in the center-of-mass system between 3.2 and 4.0 MeV and various angles between 0 ° and 135 ° . The experiment took place at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory at Ohio University using the beam swinger target location and a standard neutron time-of-flight technique. We extracted total and partial cross sections by integrating the double differential cross sections we measured. Results: The total and partial cross sections varied with energy due to the contribution from isobaric analog states and Ericson type fluctuations. The energy-averaged neutron angular distributions were symmetrical relative to 90 ° . Based on the experimental data, local transmission coefficients were extracted and were used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates of Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 and K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reactions. The new rates were found to vary significantly from the theoretical rates in the REACLIB library. We implemented the new rates in network calculations to study nucleosynthesis via the slow neutron capture process, and we found that the produced abundance of K 40 is reduced by up to 10% compared to calculations with the library rates. At the same time, the above result removes a significant portion of the previous theoretical uncertainty on the K 40 yields from stellar evolution calculations. Conclusions: Our results support a destruction rate of K 40 in massive stars via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction that is larger compared to previous estimates. The rate of K 40 destruction via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction now has a dramatically reduced uncertainty based on our measurement. Lastly, this result directly affects the predicted stellar yields of K 40 from nucleosynthesis, which is a critical input parameter for the galactic chemical evolution models that are currently employed for the study of significant properties of exoplanets.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Probing interfacial momentum closures in two-phase bubbly flow with machine learning-aided methods

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach has already reached a high level of maturity for single-phase flows, however the development of closure models for two-phase flow requires additional attention. Multiphase CFD (M-CFD) methods resolve the conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy while differing in the approaches and strategies adopted in the physical closure models. The most widely adopted framework for M-CFD is the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid approach which assumes that all phases are co-existing inside each computational cell. For each fluid, the full set of conservation equations is solved; therefore, each fluid has a different velocity field. For adiabatic two-phase flow, the mechanisms of the interfacial momentum transfer are modeled by the interfacial forces representing different physical mechanisms. One of the crucial issues in the development and application of two-fluid model is the understanding of the interfacial momentum closures which determines the bubble distribution and migration behaviors. Dedicated experiments are performed to support the physical understanding and drive the closures’ development. However, limitations exist due to the uncertainties in the experimental measurement and the simplified analytical assumptions which have difficulties on representing the complex non-linear flow fields. In this paper, a data-driven approach, Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM), is developed and proposed to resolve the challenges of modeling the interfacial forces closures. Case study is performed with two-phase flow scenarios where the high-fidelity experimental data is available. Within the Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid framework, only momentum equations for gas and liquid phases are solved and reduced-order interfacial momentum closures are aided with FSM. Predictions of void fraction and velocity fields are analyzed and demonstrate the potential of machine learning-driven interfacial forces closures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Synthetic galaxy clusters and observations based on Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data

ABSTRACT We develop a novel data-driven method for generating synthetic optical observations of galaxy clusters. In cluster weak lensing, the interplay between analysis choices and systematic effects related to source galaxy selection, shape measurement, and photometric redshift estimation can be best characterized in end-to-end tests going from mock observations to recovered cluster masses. To create such test scenarios, we measure and model the photometric properties of galaxy clusters and their sky environments from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data in two bins of cluster richness $\lambda \in [30; 45)$, $\lambda \in [45; 60)$ and three bins in cluster redshift ($z\in [0.3; 0.35)$, $z\in [0.45; 0.5)$ and $z\in [0.6; 0.65)$. Using deep-field imaging data, we extrapolate galaxy populations beyond the limiting magnitude of DES Y3 and calculate the properties of cluster member galaxies via statistical background subtraction. We construct mock galaxy clusters as random draws from a distribution function, and render mock clusters and line-of-sight catalogues into synthetic images in the same format as actual survey observations. Synthetic galaxy clusters are generated from real observational data, and thus are independent from the assumptions inherent to cosmological simulations. The recipe can be straightforwardly modified to incorporate extra information, and correct for survey incompleteness. New realizations of synthetic clusters can be created at minimal cost, which will allow future analyses to generate the large number of images needed to characterize systematic uncertainties in cluster mass measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A New Reflected Target Optical Assessment System - Stage 1 Development Results: Preprint

NREL has completed stage 1 development of an indoor optical measurement tool for fully assembled heliostats and single facets. This tool began as an indoor version of NREL's NIO technique. It uses similar techniques to other available tools (deflectometry, photogrammetry, etc.), but is designed require very little infrastructure, labor, and time to set up and collect surface slope and canting measurements on fully assembled heliostats and parabolic trough facets, making it a valuable tool for quality assurance and laboratory measurement of helio-stat optics. It accomplishes this by using computer vision, photogrammetry, and multiple images stitched together to minimize the printed target size and required setup precision. This adaptable setup is useful for taking measurements at a variety of heliostat pointing angles, and for measuring fully assembled heliostats on the assembly line. The measurement system's methodology and an analysis of its uncertainty, sensitivity and comparison with established optical measurement systems is described below.

canting↗

Developing time-resolved x-ray diffraction diagnostics at the National Ignition Facility (invited)

As part of a program to measure phase transition timescales in materials under dynamic compression, we have designed new x-ray imaging diagnostics to record multiple x-ray diffraction measurements during a single laser-driven experiment. Our design places several ns-gated hybrid CMOS (hCMOS) sensors within a few cm of a laser-driven target. The sensors must be protected from an extremely harsh environment, including debris, electromagnetic pulses, and unconverted laser light. Another key challenge is reducing the x-ray background relative to the faint diffraction signal. Building on the success of our predecessor (Target Diffraction In Situ), we implemented a staged approach to platform development. First, we built a demonstration diagnostic (Gated Diffraction Development Diagnostic) with two hCMOS sensors to confirm we could adequately protect them from the harsh environment and also acquire acceptable diffraction data. This allowed the team to quickly assess the risks and address the most significant challenges. Here, we also collected scientifically useful data during development. Leveraging what we learned, we recently developed a much more ambitious instrument (Flexible Imaging Diffraction Diagnostic for Laser Experiments) that can field up to eight hCMOS sensors in a flexible geometry and participate in back-to-back shots at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The design also allows for future iterations, such as faster hCMOS sensors and an embedded x-ray streak camera. The enhanced capabilities of the new instrument required a much more complex design, and the unexpected issues encountered on the first few shots at NIF remind us that complexity has consequences. Our progress in addressing these challenges is described herein, as is our current focus on improving data quality by reducing x-ray background and quantifying the uncertainties of our diffraction measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Constrained variational optimization of counting-time allocation in sequential scattering measurements: Application to Bonse–Hart USANS

Sequential scattering measurements are often performed under a fixed experimental-time budget, even though the expected count rate varies strongly across the measured coordinate. When the dwell time at each measurement position can be controlled independently, this variation creates a general resource-allocation problem: how should the available time be distributed to minimize the uncertainty of the reconstructed profile? We formulate this problem as a constrained variational optimization for measurements governed by Poisson counting statistics. When each measurement is treated independently, minimizing the averaged squared relative uncertainty yields an inverse-square-root intensity allocation. The formulation is then generalized to include correlations between neighboring measurements and an instrumental resolution operator, leading to an allocation criterion that equalizes the marginal reduction in posterior uncertainty per unit measurement time. Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS), in which reciprocal space is sampled sequentially through analyzer-angle stepping, provides an experimentally grounded application. Computational benchmarking shows that the optimized allocation outperforms uniform-time and constant-relative-error strategies, while application to an experimentally measured graphite USANS profile from the Spallation Neutron Source, using Poisson resampling under alternative schedules, demonstrates how counting time should be redistributed toward weak-intensity regions under an identical total duration. The resulting framework applies to sequential scattering and related scanning measurements whenever local dwell times are adjustable and directly determine the measurement uncertainties, and when the relevant correlation and instrumental-response models are available.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗

Combination of Measurements of the Top Quark Mass from Data Collected by the ATLAS and CMS Experiments at s = 7 and 8 TeV

A combination of fifteen top quark mass measurements performed by the ATLAS and CMS experiments at the LHC is presented. The datasets used correspond to an integrated luminosity of up to 5 and 20 fb − 1 of proton-proton collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, respectively. The combination includes measurements in top quark pair events that exploit both the semileptonic and hadronic decays of the top quark, and a measurement using events enriched in single top quark production via the electroweak t channel. The combination accounts for the correlations between measurements and achieves an improvement in the total uncertainty of 31% relative to the most precise input measurement. The result is m t = 172.52 ± 0.14 ( stat ) ± 0.30 ( syst ) GeV , with a total uncertainty of 0.33 GeV. © 2024 CERN, for the CMS and ATLASs Collaboration 2024 CERN

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Weak Lensing Mass Calibration of the ACT DR5 Galaxy Clusters with the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Data

We use weak gravitational lensing measurements from Year 3 Dark Energy Survey data to calibrate the masses of 443 galaxy clusters selected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect from Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 5 maps of the cosmic microwave background. We incorporate redshift and SZ measurements for individual clusters into a hierarchical model for the stacked lensing signals and perform Bayesian analyses to constrain the hydrostatic mass bias of the clusters. Our treatment of systematic uncertainties includes a prescription for measuring and accounting for the weak lensing boost factor, consideration of a miscentering effect, as well as marginalization over uncertainties in the source galaxy photometric redshift distributions and shear calibration. The resultant constraints on the normalization of the mass-observable relation have a precision of approximately 7%, with the mean WL halo mass of M $_{500c}$ = 5.4 × 10$^{14}$ M $_{⊙}$. We measure the bias between the true cluster mass and the mass estimated from the SZ signal based on an X-ray-calibrated scaling relation assuming hydrostatic equilibrium, to be 1 - b = 0.74$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ over the full sample. When splitting the clusters into high (z = 0.43-0.70) and low (z = 0.15-0.43) redshift bins, we measure 1 - b = 0.58$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ and 0.81$^{+0.08}$ $_{-0.06}$, respectively. When introducing additional freedom in redshift and mass to the hydrostatic bias model, we find that 1 - b decreases with redshift (with the power law of -1.8$^{+0.5}$ $_{-0.6}$, 99.95% confidence), consistent with findings from other recent studies, while we do not find any significant trend in mass. We also demonstrate that our result is robust against various systematics such as a scale cut, priors on baryonic and miscentering parameters, and degree of scatter in mass-observable relation. The weak-lensing mass calibration presented in this study will be a useful tool for using the ACT clusters as probes of astrophysics, and as a step towards using their abundance as a cosmological probe.

Shin, T. [Carnegie Mellon U.] (ORCID:0000000263895↗

Examination of stiff ion temperature gradient mode physics in simulations of DIII-D H-mode transport

A systematic evaluation of gyrokinetic and gyrofluid model predictions of ion temperature gradient (ITG) stability and transport using parameters from DIII-D high confinement mode (H-mode) plasmas has been performed. The nonlinear CGYRO code is used to make the gyrokinetic predictions, and the quasilinear TGLF model for the corresponding gyrofluid predictions. The assessments are made at three radii (normalized toroidal flux ρtor = 0.4, 0.55, and 0.7) in three different plasma scenarios with varying levels of neutral beam heating and torque. For each of the nine cases (3 radii × 3 scenarios) considered, ITG turbulence is found to be the dominant long-wavelength instability and transport mechanism. The inclusions of both transverse magnetic fluctuations and dynamic fast beam ions are stabilizing for all cases considered, with strongest effects seen at ρor = 0.4 where the fast ion population and normalized plasma pressure β = 2μ0nT/B2 are highest. The further inclusion of parallel magnetic fluctuations does not have a meaningful impact on the ITG turbulence in these scenarios, but does destabilize (in combination with fast ions) new high-frequency instabilities at ρtor = 0.4 in the high power scenarios. In each case the linear and nonlinear ITG critical gradients are predicted to be lower than the measured ITG scale lengths and their associated uncertainties. Inclusion of equilibrium flow shear in the transport predictions generally leads to an upshift in effective critical gradient rather than a qualitative change in the predicted stiffness, with stronger responses typically seen in the gyrokinetic predictions than in the gyrofluid results. However, in most cases these upshifted gradients still remain below the measured values and their uncertainties. Although the predicted critical gradients are below the measured gradients, both models predicted flux-matching gradients consistent with measured values in six of the nine cases considered, with no clear systematic over- or underprediction. Thus, while the experimental ion temperature profiles do not appear to be closely pinned to the ITG critical gradient, both gyrokinetic and gyrofluid models are able to accurately match the measured gradients reasonably well in most cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

How, where, and why carbon (C) moves into and out of an ecosystem through time are long-standing questions in biogeochemistry. Here, we bring together hundreds of thousands of C-cycle observations at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA, a mid-latitude landscape dominated by 80–120-yr-old closed-canopy forests. These data answered four questions: (1) where and how much C is presently stored in dominant forest types; (2) what are current rates of C accrual and loss; (3) what biotic and abiotic factors contribute to variability in these rates; and (4) how has climate change affected the forest’s C cycle? Harvard Forest is an active C sink resulting from forest regrowth following land abandonment. Soil and tree biomass comprise nearly equal portions of existing C stocks. Net primary production (NPP) averaged 680–750 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 ; belowground NPP contributed 38–47% of the total, but with large uncertainty. Mineral soil C measured in the same inventory plots in 1992 and 2013 was too heterogeneous to detect change in soil-C pools; however, radiocarbon data suggest a small but persistent sink of 10–30 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . Net ecosystem production (NEP) in hardwood stands averaged ~300 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . NEP in hemlock-dominated forests averaged ~450 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 until infestation by the hemlock woolly adelgid turned these stands into a net C source. Since 2000, NPP has increased by 26%. For the period 1992–2015, NEP increased 93%. The increase in mean annual temperature and growing season length alone accounted for ~30% of the increase in productivity. Interannual variations in GPP and NEP were also correlated with increases in red oak biomass, forest leaf area, and canopy-scale light-use efficiency. Compared to long-term global change experiments at the Harvard Forest, the C sink in regrowing biomass equaled or exceeded C cycle modifications imposed by soil warming, N saturation, and hemlock removal. Furthermore, the results of this synthesis and comparison to simulation models suggest that forests across the region are likely to accrue C for decades to come but may be disrupted if the frequency or severity of biotic and abiotic disturbances increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sooting tendencies of 20 bio-derived fuels for advanced spark-ignition engines

The sooting tendencies of 20 bio-derived fuels indicated as potential blendstocks for spark-ignition engines by the Co-Optimization of Fuels & Engines (Co-Optima) Initiative are studied. The Yield Sooting Index (YSI) is used to quantify the sooting tendencies. The Co-Optima Chemical Model is used to predict the numerical YSIs for all test fuels, and these results are compared with measurements. Experimental YSIs are newly measured for 2 furans and are taken from our previous work for the other compounds. Overall, the predicted YSIs agree well with measurements, within the experimental uncertainties, except for 2,5-dimethylfuran (2,5-DMF). It is found that Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) growth reactions have little influence on the relative soot production from each fuel and therefore on YSI predictions. A modified sensitivity coefficient formulation is proposed to evaluate reaction sensitivities specifically for YSI. This formulation is applied to the 2,5-DMF-doped flame, and six 2,5-DMF initial decomposition reactions, which lead to different major soot precursors, are identified as the most sensitive reactions. The impact of the chemical kinetic uncertainties embedded in these reactions is quantified by randomly perturbing their reaction rates within a factor of two. The resulting prediction uncertainty in the 2,5-DMF-doped flame is found to be ± 8 YSI units (±11%), which demonstrates that the test-fuel-specific decomposition reactions indeed have considerable influence on its YSI prediction. Our research suggests that more accurate kinetic parameters for fuel initial decomposition reactions can potentially improve YSI predictions effectively, without altering the YSI predictions of other fuels with significantly different molecular structures.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗