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At least 631 records · Page 35

The Photochemical Reflectance Index from Directional Cornfield Reflectances: Observations and Simulations

The two-layer Markov chain Analytical Canopy Reflectance Model (ACRM) was linked with in situ hyperspectral leaf optical properties to simulate the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) for a corn crop canopy at three different growth stages. This is an extended study after a successful demonstration of PRI simulations for a cornfield previously conducted at an early vegetative growth stage. Consistent with previous in situ studies, sunlit leaves exhibited lower PRI values than shaded leaves. Since sunlit (shaded) foliage dominates the canopy in the reflectance hotspot (coldspot), the canopy PRI derived from field hyperspectral observations displayed sensitivity to both view zenith angle and relative azimuth angle at all growth stages. Consequently, sunlit and shaded canopy sectors were most differentiated when viewed along the azimuth matching the solar principal plane. These directional PRI responses associated with sunlit/shaded foliage were successfully reproduced by the ACRM. As before, the simulated PRI values from the current study were closer to in situ values when both sunlit and shaded leaves were utilized as model input data in a two-layer mode, instead of a one-layer mode with sunlit leaves only. Model performance as judged by correlation between in situ and simulated values was strongest for the mature corn crop (r = 0.87, RMSE = 0.0048), followed by the early vegetative stage (r = 0.78; RMSE = 0.0051) and the early senescent stage (r = 0.65; RMSE = 0.0104). Since the benefit of including shaded leaves in the scheme varied across different growth stages, a further analysis was conducted to investigate how variable fractions of sunlit/shaded leaves affect the canopy PRI values expected for a cornfield, with implications for 20 remote sensing monitoring options. Simulations of the sunlit to shaded canopy ratio near 50/50 +/- 10 (e.g., 60/40) matching field observations at all growth stages were examined. Our results suggest in the importance of the sunlit/shaded fraction and canopy structure in understanding and interpreting PRI.

Cheng, Yen-Ben↗

JPL's Foundry Furnace: Web-Based Concurrent Engineering for Formulation

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Innovation Foundry is an enterprise tasked with shepherding space mission concepts through the formulation lifecycle. It oversees a number of “virtual teams” for the various stages of formulation. Among these is Team X, which has had considerable success over its more than 20-year history. In a Team X study, domain experts (including engineers devoted to the various spacecraft subsystems) work concurrently and collaboratively over several days to arrive at a feasible point design with a reasonable cost estimate. They use a set of linked Excel workbooks, each developed and approved by a responsible “line organization” within JPL. This toolset has served Team X well over the years, and has evolved since its inception. At the same time, the Innovation Foundry’s portfolio of formulation teams has expanded, and so has the scope of the design challenges they face. The A-Team runs workshop-like architecture studies to focus science investigations, generate mission concepts, assess feasibility, and explore trade spaces. Team Xc performs rapid point design in the style of Team X, but for CubeSats and small spacecraft, using a different toolset. Proposal teams further mature concepts to the point where they can be proposed. Recognizing the importance of trade space modeling combined with new IT services for providing and integrating data, JPL is developing the Foundry Furnace web-based software infrastructure. It will support A-Team, Team Xc, and Team X, providing study management, a catalog of hardware components, a library of re-usable analyses, and a design environment. It is a modernization of JPL’s concurrent engineering infrastructure, embracing the core concepts of Model-Based Systems Engineering, and built with modern software design philosophies.

Murphy, Jonathan↗

T-infinity: The Dependency Inversion Principle for Rapid and Sustainable Multidisciplinary Software Development

The CFD Vision 2030 Study recommends that, “NASA should develop and maintain an integrated simulation and software development infrastructure to enable rapid CFD technology maturation.... [S]oftware standards and interfaces must be emphasized and supported whenever possible, and open source models for noncritical technology components should be adopted.” The current paper presents an approach to an open source development architecture, named T-infinity, for accelerated research in CFD leveraging the Dependency Inversion Principle to realize plugins that communicate through collections of functions without exposing internal data structures. Steady state flow visualization, mesh adaptation, fluid-structure interaction, and overset domain capabilities are demonstrated through compositions of plugins via standardized abstract interfaces without the need for source code dependencies between disciplines. Plugins interact through abstract interfaces thereby avoiding N 2 direct code-to-code data structure coupling where N is the number of codes. This plugin architecture enhances sustainable development by controlling the interaction between components to limit software complexity growth. The use of T-infinity abstract interfaces enables multidisciplinary application developers to leverage legacy applications alongside newly-developed capabilities. While rein, a description of interface details is deferred until the are more thoroughly tested and can be closed to modification.

O'Connell, Matthew D.↗

Overview of Predictive Simulation Capability Development for Crater Evolution and Ejecta in Continuum/Rarefied Flows

As part of the Game Changing Development (GCD) Program funded by NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD), the development of simulation capability for the prediction of extra-terrestrial plume surface interaction (PSI) environments has been undertaken by the Fluid Dynamics Branch at NASA/MSFC. The Predictive Simulation Capability (PSC) Element is focused on creating simulation capability for the reliable and accurate prediction of PSI in Martian (~650 Pa) and Lunar (vacuum) ambient environments. In this paper, an overview and brief status on one area of capability development through this GCD PSI project, capturing the effects of mixed continuum/rarefied flow on crater development and ejecta sheets, is presented with respect to capability enhancements, predictive tool maturation, and validation of the Loci/GGFS tool against PSI data in Martian and Lunar environments. Axisymmetric modeling, overset mesh/moving mesh, and multiple-species mixture modeling capabilities are verified against Loci/CHEM, and a demonstration of the capabilities is presented for the Apollo Lunar Module.

Andrew Weaver↗

The relationship of the lunar regolith less than 10-microns fraction and agglutinates. II - Chemical composition of agglutinate glass as a test of the 'fusion of the finest fraction' /F3/ model

Agglutinate glasses from nine Apollo soils have been studied using an automated electron microprobe technique in order to test the fusion of the finest fraction model proposed by Papike (1981). The nine average agglutinate glass compositions are compared with the calculated fused-soil-free compositions, the bulk compositions and the 90-20 micron fraction compositions of the soils in which they are found. It is found that the agglutinate glass data are consistent with the composition of most of the fractions finer than 10 microns, allowing for the volatile loss of K2O and Na2O; some inconsistencies that do arise may result from the degree of soil maturity and the amount of material finer than 10 microns. It is concluded that the fusion of the finest fraction model is a good first approximation of mechanisms affecting the formation of agglutinate glass.

Walker, R. J.↗

Mature thunderstorm cloud top structure - Three-dimensional numerical simulation versus satellite observations

Preliminary results of four runs with a three-dimensional model of the effects of vertical wind shear on cloud top height/temperature structure and the internal properties of isolate midlatitude thunderstorms are reported. The model is being developed as an aid to analyses of GEO remote sensing satellite data. The grid is a 27 x 27 x 20 mesh with 2 km horizontal resolution and 0.9 vertical resolution. The total grid is 54 km on a side and 18 km deep. A second-order Crowley scheme for advecting momentum is extended with a third-order correction for spatial truncation error, and the earth-relative horizontal surface wind components are decreased to 50 percent of their values at 0.45 km. A temperature increase with height is included, together with an initial impulse consisting of a nonrotating cylindrical weak buoyant updraft 10 km in radius. The results of the runs are discussed in terms of the time variation of the vertical velocity extrema, the effects of strong and weak shear on a storm, the cloud top height, the Lagrangian dynamics of a thermal couplet, and data from a real storm.

Schlesinger, R. E.↗

Modeling a Gas-Cooled Microreactor Balance of Plant for the Virtual Test Bed

High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) are one of the technology considered for microreactor designs because of their high performance and technological maturity. Several designs are being developed. These microreactor cores are connected to power conversion system (PCS) through a heat exchanger. For transient analysis, the feedback of the PCS or of the primary loop can be important, therefore, it is necessary to develop robust models for the balance of plant that can be coupled to a core model. In this work, a balance of plant model using the MOOSE Thermal Hydraulics module (THM) is presented and demonstrated for startup and load-follow transients. This model can be seamlessly coupled with any MOOSE-based multi-physics core model using the MOOSE multi-app approach.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Root Influences on Mobilization and Export of Mineral-bound Soil Organic Matter

Biogeochemical cycles within mountainous watersheds are key regulators of ecosystem carbon storage and downstream nutrient loadings, and they have shown to be particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Increasing temperature and persistent droughts have already dramatically changed vegetation cover across the mountainous western US, with unknown consequences for soil carbon and nutrient cycles belowground. What remains elusive is to what extent associated changes in root-soil interactions may mobilize the vast pool of organic matter (OM) that has been stabilized by associations with minerals for centuries or millennia. Although plant root-driven OM mobilization from minerals may be a central control on carbon loss and nutrient export, such mechanisms are currently missing from conceptual and numerical models. The overall objective of this Exploratory Project is to identify the biogeochemical mechanisms by which roots destabilize mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) and the cumulative impact on carbon and nutrient fate. To accomplish this goal, we integrated well-controlled laboratory experiments with in-field measurements and a scalable modeling approach. First, we conducted model system experiments to assess the vulnerability of MAOM to exudate-mediated mechanisms. Our results show that common root exudates effectively destabilize MAOM not only through direct, ligand-driven mobilization mechanisms, but also indirect, microbially-mediated mechanisms relying on secondary metabolites and enzymes. We further found that OM bound to poorly crystalline Fe and Al (hydr)oxides is more vulnerable to exudate-induced destabilization than OM bound to more crystalline phases, particularly in response to direct, ligand-promoted mechanisms. These findings demonstrate that the stability of MAOM is not just a function of their inherent properties, but also will depend in large parts on the ability of plant roots and microbes to produce exudates capable of triggering suitable mobilization mechanisms. We further employed a well-controlled rhizobox approach, combining advanced microsensor and mass spectrometry techniques, to resolve spatiotemporal variations in the composition and availability of exudates along single growing roots of grasses. Our results show that the composition of functionally relevant exudate compounds varies at extremely short time scales, seemingly shifting from ligands such as aromatic acids around root tips to less reactive metabolites such as amino acids around mature root segments. These results suggest a prevalence of direct MAOM mobilization mechanisms around the root tip, while indirect MAOM mobilization strategies may dominate around more mature root segments. Additionally, we utilized microsensor measurements in rhizoboxes to parameterize a rhizosphere (hydro)biogeochemistry reactive transport model (eSTOMP-ROOTS). The resulting model was used to assess how root exudations affects the stability of MAOM. Model simulations show that diel pulses of root exudation are strong enough to cause oscillations in biogeochemical conditions—particularly in pH, oxygen concentrations, and microbial activity— that repeatedly disrupt MAOM. Finally, we assessed field-scale impacts of root-driven MAOM destabilization over short and long time scales. A combination of in-field incubations and field-based characterizations showed that MAOM may not only be vulnerable to seasonal variations in root activity, but also to root-driven weathering over pedogenic time scales. In sum, results from our Exploratory Award highlight the strong control plant roots exert on MAOM mobilization and, thus, on the potential for carbon and nutrient export from watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

EarthShine: Observing our world as an exoplanet from the surface of the Moon

NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. EarthShine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo “follow the water.” EarthShine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of EarthShine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Roadmap for the Application of Ion Beam Technologies to Challenges for the Advancement and Implementation of Nuclear Energy Technologies

The use of ion beams in interrogating materials performance for nuclear energy applications is advancing at a rapid rate. Ion irradiations have been proven to produce radiation effects data that are of direct relevance for understanding neutron-induced displacement damage. This development reflects significant and continued investment in infrastructure by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as well as support of science and engineering research at universities and national laboratories. Application of ion beam irradiation methods to enhance the deployment of materials in reactors is in the spirit of the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN) initiative sponsored by DOE to accelerate the deployment of innovation in the U.S. nuclear industry. Ion beam irradiation shows considerable promise for assisting in down selecting candidate materials for use in both current and advanced nuclear energy systems. Ion beams allow rapid achievement of materials damage levels not accessible by neutron irradiation in test reactors due to cost and time constraints. Ion beam studies provide data on the effects of irradiation under very specific conditions of temperature, radiation dose, and radiation dose rate that are difficult or impossible to achieve via reactor irradiation experiments. This data can be used to develop and validate detailed predictive radiation effects models for use in reactor materials research and development. Despite the current high state of the art and the maturity of quality assurance, there are still challenges to the deployment of ion beam data in support of reactor materials qualification. For the most part, these challenges arise from the lack of a detailed mechanistic understanding of potential difference between ion induced and neutron induced materials damage, which is exacerbated by difficulties in obtaining bulk physical and mechanical properties data from the micron-scale heavy ion irradiation depths. In particular, improved understanding of dose rate effects, as a function of temperature, are needed. This document offers a roadmap for the development and enhancement of current U.S. ion beam irradiation technologies within university and national laboratory settings, and especially for the deployment of new highly controlled in situ interrogation of materials during irradiation to provide dynamic and mechanistic data for model development. The status and capabilities of relevant U.S. ion beam facilities are summarized and recommended “best practices” for performing ion irradiations are described. The potential role of ion beam irradiations to assist the development and deployment of reactor materials is outlined. Key principles include developing methods for rapid and cost-effective materials selection and development, characterizing fundamental material response under irradiation, and developing a robust mechanistic understanding of microstructure evolution under irradiation (including development and validation of reliable predictive models for microstructure evolution).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Tree Growth Enhancement Drives a Persistent Biomass Gain in Unmanaged Temperate Forests

While enhanced tree growth over the last decades has been reported in forests across the globe, it remains unclear whether it drives persistent biomass increases of forest stands, particularly in mature forests. Enhanced tree growth and stand-level biomass are often linked with a simultaneous increase in density-driven mortality and a reduction in tree longevity. Identifying empirical evidence regarding the balance between these processes is challenging due to the confounding effects of stand history, management, and environmental changes. Here, we investigate the link between growth and biomass via the negative relationship between average tree size and stand density (tree number per area). We find increasing stand density for a given mean tree size in unmanaged closed-canopy forests in Switzerland over the past six decades and a positive relationship between tree growth and stand density across forest plots—qualitatively consistent with our simulations using a mechanistic, cohort-resolving ecosystem model (BiomeE). Model simulations show that, in the absence of other disturbances, enhanced tree growth persistently increases biomass stocks despite simultaneous decreases in carbon residence time and tree longevity. However, the magnitude of simulated biomass changes for a given growth enhancement critically depends on the shape of the mortality functions. Our analyses reconcile reports of growth-induced reductions of tree longevity with model predictions of persistent biomass increases, and with our finding of trends toward denser forests in response to growth—also in mature stands.

biomass stocks↗

Modeling and Rapid Prototyping of Integrated Transmission-Distribution OPF Formulations with PowerModelsITD.jl

Conventional electric power systems are composed of different unidirectional power flow stages of generation, transmission, and distribution, managed independently by transmission system and distribution system operators. However, as distribution systems increase in complexity due to the integration of distributed energy resources, coordination between transmission and distribution networks will be imperative for the optimal operation of the power grid. However, coupling models and formulations between transmission and distribution is non-trivial, in particular due to the common practice of modeling transmission systems as single-phase, and distribution systems as multi-conductor phase-unbalanced. To enable the rapid prototyping of power flow formulations, in particular in the modeling of the boundary conditions between these two seemingly incompatible data models, we introduce PowerModelsITD.jl, a free, open-source toolkit written in Julia for integrated transmission-distribution (ITD) optimization that leverages mature optimization libraries from the InfrastructureModels.jl-ecosystem. The primary objective of the proposed framework is to provide baseline implementations of steady-state ITD optimization problems, while providing a common platform for the evaluation of emerging formulations and optimization problems. In this work, we introduce the nonlinear formulations currently supported in PowerModelsITD.jl, which include AC-polar, AC-rectangular, current-voltage, and a linear network transportation model. Results are validated using combinations of IEEE transmission and distribution networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Far Term Noise Reduction Roadmap for the Mid-Fuselage Nacelle Subsonic Transport

A noise reduction technology roadmap study is presented to determine the feasibility for the Mid-Fuselage Nacelle (MFN) aircraft concept to achieve the noise goal set by NASA for the Far Term time frame, beyond 2035. The study starts with updating the noise prediction of the existing MFN configuration that had been modeled for the time frame between 2025 and 2035. The updated prediction for the Mid Term time frame is 34.3 dB cumulative effective perceived noise level (EPNL) below the Stage 4 regulation. A suite of technologies that are deemed feasible to mature for practical implementation in the Far Term and whose potentials for noise reduction have been illustrated is selected for analysis. For each technology, component noise reduction is modeled either by available experimental data or by physics-based modeling with aircraft system level methods. The noise reduction is then applied to the corresponding noise component predicted by advanced aircraft system noise prediction tools, and the total aircraft noise is predicted as the incoherent summation of the components. It is shown that the Far Term MFN aircraft has the potential to achieve a cumulative noise level of 40.2 EPNL dB below Stage 4. The key technologies to achieve this low aircraft noise level are assessed by the impact of each technology on the aircraft system noise. This roadmap shows the potential of this revolutionary, yet still tube-and-wing, MFN concept to reach the NASA Far Term noise goal.

Guo, Yueping↗

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind Tunnel Testing of Powered Lift, All-Wing STOL Model

Short take-off and landing (STOL) systems can offer significant capabilities to warfighters and, for civil operators thriving on maximizing efficiencies they can improve airspace use while containing noise within airport environments. In order to provide data for next generation systems, a wind tunnel test of an all-wing cruise efficient, short take-off and landing (CE STOL) configuration was conducted in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) 14- by 22-foot Subsonic Wind Tunnel. The test s purpose was to mature the aerodynamic aspects of an integrated powered lift system within an advanced mobility configuration capable of CE STOL. The full-span model made use of steady flap blowing and a lifting centerbody to achieve high lift coefficients. The test occurred during April through June of 2007 and included objectives for advancing the state-of-the-art of powered lift testing through gathering force and moment data, on-body pressure data, and off-body flow field measurements during automatically controlled blowing conditions. Data were obtained for variations in model configuration, angles of attack and sideslip, blowing coefficient, and height above ground. The database produced by this effort is being used to advance design techniques and computational tools for developing systems with integrated powered lift technologies.

Collins, Scott W.↗

Advancing Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis Through Integrated Experimentation and Multi-Scale Computational Modeling

This webinar will highlight recent results from a multi-disciplinary research effort in which integrated reaction testing was coupled with particle- and reactor-scale computational modeling to advance catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) for the production of renewable hydrocarbon fuels. Data will be presented from a series of ex situ CFP experiments in which a fixed bed of Pt/TiO2 was utilized with co-fed H2 to upgrade woody biomass pyrolysis vapors. Further discussion will include the application of these data towards the development of (1) a multiscale simulation framework to de-couple apparent kinetics from both intraparticle and reactor-scale transport phenomena and (2) a finite element computational model to understand and predict thermal excursions during catalyst regeneration. Throughout the presentation, the speakers will emphasize synergistic outcomes derived from the collaborative approach and highlight ongoing research efforts to accelerate technology maturation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Lightweight Thrust Chamber Assemblies using Multi-Alloy Additive Manufacturing and Composite Overwrap

Additive Manufacturing (AM) has brought significant design and fabrication opportunities for complex components with internal features such as liquid rocket engine thrust chambers not previously possible. This technology allows for significant cost savings and schedule reductions in addition to new performance optimization through weight reduction and increased margins. Specific to regeneratively-cooled combustion chambers and nozzles for liquid rocket engines, additive manufacturing offers the ability to form the complex internal coolant channels and the closeout of the channels to contain the high pressure liquid propellants with a single operation. Much of additive manufacturing development has focused on monolithic alloys using Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF), which do not allow for complete optimization of the structure. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) completed feasibility of an AM bimetallic L-PBF GRCop-84 copper-alloy combustion chamber with an AM electron beam freeform Inconel 625 structural jacket under the Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion (LCUSP) Project. A follow-on project called Rapid Analysis and Manufacturing Propulsion Technology (RAMPT) is under development to further expand large-scale multi-alloy thrust chambers while maturing composite overwrap technology for significant weight savings opportunities. The RAMPT project has three primary objectives: 1) Advancing blown powder Directed Energy Deposition (DED) to fabricate integral-channel large scale nozzles, 2) Develop composite overwrap technology to reduce weight and provide structural capability for thrust chamber assemblies, and 3) Develop bimetallic and multi-metallic additively manufactured radial and axial joints to optimize material performance. In addition to these primary manufacturing developments, analytical modeling efforts compliment the process development to simulate the AM processes to reduce build failures and distortions. The RAMPT project is also maturing the supply chain for various manufacturing processes described above in addition to L-PBF of GRCop-42. This paper will present an overview of the RAMPT project, the process development and hardware progress to date, material and hot-fire testing results, along with future developments.

Additive Manufacturing↗

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO₂ levels have decreased by 30–40% in the last decade. We quantify NO₂ trends (2005–2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO₂ vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite.We demonstrate that the current OMI NO₂ algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence of trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO₂ concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NO x emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO₂ standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO₂ reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO₂ VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations (r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (–4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, –3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (–1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, –2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO₂ trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (–4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (–0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010-2013.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗