Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Investments”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of temporal resolution selection approaches in energy systems models

Capacity expansion models for the power sector are used to project future decisions over the coming decades by simulating investment and operation decisions for the use of electricity. Due to model performance constraints, these models typically do not explicitly simulate every hour within a year, but instead simulate representative time segments (groups of hours). This paper evaluates different approaches for selecting time segments across three methods: sequential, categorical, and clustering, across a wide range of time-segment quantities, for a total of 204 temporal profiles. To measure the performance of each profile's ability to accurately represent data, the root-mean-square-error of each profile's time segments are compared to the data's original hourly data. The temporal alignment across regions is also measured (i.e., how often windy days align across regions). Different spatial resolutions were applied for a subset of the temporal selection methods to investigate the impact spatial resolution has on performance. This paper provides a framework for measuring the value of different temporal selection methods and of adding more granular data to energy system models. Overall, multi-criteria clustering yields the lowest root-mean-square-error across all datasets evaluated and provides a holistic view of the intertwined relationships between renewable generation and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensor cost-effectiveness analysis for data-driven fault detection and diagnostics in commercial buildings

Data-driven building fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) is heavily dependent on sensors. However, common sensors from Building Automation Systems are not optimized to maximize accuracy in FDD. Installing additional sensors that provide more detailed building system information is key to maximizing the performance of FDD solutions. Here in this paper, we present a sensor cost analysis workflow to quantify the economic implications of installing new sensors for FDD using the concept of sensor threshold marginal cost (STMC). STMC does not represent actual sensor cost. Rather, it represents a target cost based on the economic benefit that would be realized through improved FDD performance and one or more specified economic criteria. We calculate STMCs for multiple possible fault types and use fault prevalence information to aggregate STMCs into a single dollar value to determine the cost-effectiveness of a potential sensor investment. We conducted a case study using Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Flexible Research Platform (FRP) test facility as a reference. The case study demonstrates the feasibility of the analysis and highlights the key cost considerations in sensor selection for FDD. The results also indicate that identifying and installing the few key sensor(s) is critical to cost-effectively improve FDD performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel method for co-optimizing battery sizing and charging strategy of battery electric bus fleets: An application to the city of Paris

Battery-electric buses (BEBs) are a promising technology for replacing diesel buses and reducing their environmental burden. However, their charging process can take several hours, depending on the charging technique and strategy, making them susceptible to schedule disruptions. Furthermore, the selection of the charging strategy and battery size can increase the total capital investment and operational expenses of a BEB fleet, which is a major obstacle to its adoption. Therefore, to minimize the total cost of ownership (TCO) and prevent schedule disruptions, it is essential to establish a well-defined approach to determine an appropriate battery size and charging strategy for BEB fleets. This paper presents a method for reducing the TCO of BEB by determining the optimal battery size and charging strategy for each bus while satisfying operating constraints. The method involves a two-step optimization algorithm that uses Dynamic Programming and Genetic Algorithm. Further, the study applies this approach to the bus fleet serving line 21 in Paris and generates the optimal battery sizing, charging strategy, and required charging infrastructure. The results indicate that 100 kWh batteries offer the best trade-off between capital and operational expenditure for the fleet deployment if used with 65–85 kW chargers at bus terminals.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linkages between Policy and Business Innovation in the Development of China’s Energy Performance Contracting Market

China has a large and growing energy performance contracting (EPC) market, which has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency retrofits and improvements This paper evaluates how policies and business innovations have worked synergistically to expand China’s EPC market. We analyze the interconnected roles of four key factors: incentive policies, China’s Five-Year Plans, and business innovations in diversifying contract models and strengthening measurement and verification. We use multiple data sources for the analysis, including detailed information on business choices in 21 pilot projects, industry-wide surveys, and policy information. Our study indicates that supportive policies were important for the initial market development. As the market was established and continued to grow, the private sector started to take initiatives to address the issues that are left out of the policies, which helped overcome certain market barriers and enabled the sustainable growth of the market. Future policies could incorporate the successful innovations from the businesses to ensure long-term development of China’s EPC market. Understanding these policy and business drivers in a holistic way is critical to understanding how China was able to leverage its relatively small policy investments into much larger transformation of its existing buildings and industrial facilities through energy efficiency retrofits. This in turn can be informative for other countries seeking to achieve large-scale energy efficiency improvements.

Zhou, Yuanrong↗
DOE OSTI2020

North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks

As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will find this study's results useful for informing the implications of the energy sectors' long-term planning and investment decisions. This paper evaluates how both the electricity and natural gas sectors could respond to hypothetical gas price shocks under different system configurations. We impose unforeseen natural gas price shocks under reference and alternative configurations resulting from a renewable generation mandate or variations to renewable capacity costs. Results from several different models are presented for the electricity and natural gas sectors separately for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Generally, the US becomes more (less) reliant on electricity imports from Canada given a high (low) gas price shock but increases (decreases) exports to Mexico. The renewable mandate is shown to buffer electricity price increases under high price shocks but price reductions under the low price shocks are dampened given less flexibility to take advantage of the low-priced natural gas. The United States is demonstrated to reduce natural gas production and net exports with high natural gas price shocks given a reduction in demand.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mexico and U.S. Power Systems Under Variations in Natural Gas Prices

This study examines the impact of natural gas prices on the power systems of Mexico and the United States. For this, we develop an integrated modeling framework by soft linking three different techno-economic bottom-up models of the power and energy systems, one partial equilibrium model of the natural gas sector, and a partial equilibrium model of the Mexican energy sector. Our results show several interesting results: high natural gas prices raise the use of carbon-intensive technologies in the short-term and boost renewable investments at longer time intervals, increasing emissions in earlier periods and reducing them thereafter. Regarding system costs, because of more capital-intensive green power and lower expenditures in raw energy carriers, capital costs rise and operating costs decrease in the long haul. Furthermore, we see an increase in natural gas demand when its price is low, reducing long-term capital and operating costs through cheaper energy inputs in natural gas facilities and a lower share of capital-intensive renewable facilities in the power system. Concerning emissions, low natural-gas prices decrease coal use in the United States, reducing anthropogenic emissions until the last stages of the optimization period. For Mexico, they show heterogeneous results across models. Policymakers can use this study's results to understand the influence of natural gas prices in the Mexican and United States energy sectors.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data mining of plug-in electric vehicles charging behavior using supply-side data

This paper aims to better understand the charging patterns of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and identify factors that may significantly impact PEVs’ charging behavior. We collected 189,864 supply-side charging session data over 13 months from 821 charging stations in Illinois from ChargePoint. Through descriptive and regression analyses, we characterize the distributions of key charging behavior indicators, including charging location, dwell time, and battery start state of charge (SOC), and quantify the impacts of closely related factors on these charging behaviors. In this work, we find that: (1) PEVs are more likely to charge in the morning at multifamily commercial locations with a lower start SOC compared with single family residential locations; (2) Weekday and morning sessions are more likely to utilize workplace charging and have shorter dwell time compared with weekend and afternoon sessions; (3) Single family residential area and locations with Levels 1/2 chargers have a higher start SOC and longer dwell time compared with other locations and DC fast chargers (DCFCs). These findings provide policy insights to identify potential time and locations to incentivize PEVs for grid services, as well as identify critical location categories for further charging infrastructure investment to better reduce range anxiety and promote PEV adoption.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities

Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.

Gul, Sadia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extremely rapid, Lagrangian modeling of 2D flooding: A rivulet-based approach

Estimates of potential flood inundation areas and depths are critical to informing the preparedness, response, and investment decisions of many government agencies and private sector organizations, especially under a changing climate. The standard modeling approaches, however, are often either computationally intensive or constrained in their accuracy or applicability. A novel, rivulet-based, 2D model of pluvial flooding is described in this article that is 10,000 to 10 million times less computationally complex than the full solution of the shallow water equations, yet achieves inundation area hit rates of between 0.8 and 0.9 and relative absolute mean errors of 10%-20% across a wide range of flow depths. This combination of accuracy and efficiency will enable real-time depth estimates during flood events, detailed sensitivity analyses, and the generation of large ensembles to support broad uncertainty analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization (MDO) for Co-Designed Transmission & Distribution Electric Grid Planning

This paper describes early experiences and example use cases applying multi-disciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDO) to the integrated design of power grids. Adapted from aerospace, MDO enables combining multiple existing tools into a coordinated optimization. Here we use MDO to simultaneously capture integrated transmission-distribution and investment-engineering trade-offs in an automated framework. Example use cases showcase prototype interactions among existing grid models using MDO and hint at the types of integrated analyses enabled by this approach. In addition, we share experiences and thoughts on grid-specific challenges and opportunities to help advance further work in this area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inequality and the Future of Electric Mobility in 36 U.S. Cities: An Innovative Methodology and Comparative Assessment

Electric vehicles are seen as one of the technological solutions to transition our transportation systems away from carbon, and cities offer unique opportunities to electrify transportation. To be equitable, however, this transition will not merely require technological innovations. Acknowledging socio-spatial inequalities and creating strategies to address them are critical - yet relatively underexplored - dimensions of the transportation transition. This paper integrates relevant literature into a micro-urban social typology (MUST) approach that uses agglomerative clustering techniques to examine, first, the factors and attributes defining transportation inequities within 36 U.S. cities, and, second, the implications of these inequities for policies that foster a more equitable transportation transition. By combining socio-spatial and transportation data, we identified five MUSTs: Wealthy, Urban Disadvantaged, Urban Renters, Middle-Class Homeowners, and Rural/Exurban. Rather than being tied to any particular indicator (e.g., homeownership), these MUSTs contain intersecting factors and features of inequities. We compare transportation and health outcomes across MUSTs, and the results suggest that user-centric strategies and public investments are necessary to foster true transportation equity. These must go beyond the electrification of private vehicles and should be tailored to the specific characteristics of each MUST. These could include electric carpooling for the rural/exurban MUST and electrification of transit for the urban disadvantaged and renter MUSTs. Our typology offers a critical next step toward informing transportation transition policies to target critical sociodemographic, economic, and techno-infrastructural factors.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shedding light on the economic costs of long-duration power outages: A review of resilience assessment methods and strategies

Here this paper provides a literature review of methods and modeling techniques to estimate the cost of power system outages, along with the value of outage mitigation or system resilience. Regulators, policymakers, and infrastructure owners have a growing need to understand the methods for estimating the benefits of resilience improvements of electric infrastructure against natural and man-made disasters. There is a broad literature that estimates the cost of short-duration outages and a small but developing literature on estimating the cost of long-duration outages. This article reviews the models used to estimate the cost of outages and discusses their relative strengths. Additionally, this paper identifies key questions from stakeholders regarding resilience investment and maps them to the relevant models that would help answer them. We include recommendations for future work to include recent advances in regional economic modeling that can estimate region and demographic-specific costs and the distributional consequences of potential resilience projects.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Five grand challenges of offshore wind financing in the United States

Offshore wind energy has the potential to play a critical role in fostering a renewable energy transformation in the United States. This owes to its massive technical potential, strategic location near densely populated coastlines, and - relative to onshore wind and solar - high capacity factors and consistent production. The Biden Administration's target to build 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 (from 0.04 GW today) requires the creation and swift development of a new industry that interlinks the wind and power industries with the maritime sector. Critical to its success is financing. While financial capital is abundant, deploying it for offshore wind faces major challenges. We identify and describe five grand challenges affecting offshore wind finance in the U.S. Failing to address these challenges may put deployment targets at risk. The challenges include (1) Early years financing: navigating the complexities, timing mismatches, and high costs of projects in the development phase; (2) Policy support for project financial solvency: addressing the uncertainty and systematic transfers of tax credits away from offshore wind, characteristic of the U.S. Investment Tax Credit; (3) Workforce development: building a skilled workforce for an emerging market; (4) Transmission and integration barriers: upgrading the power grid to reliably support large scale offshore wind integration; and (5) Floating wind development: financing the development and scale-up of floating offshore wind technologies. The second challenge has already been solved to a large extent by the Inflation Reduction Act.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Critical minerals lists for low-carbon transitions: Reviewing their structure, objectives, and limitations

Critical minerals lists have flourished in the past decade, in particular linked to the importance of critical minerals for low-carbon transitions. We identified 27 critical minerals or materials lists across 15 countries and the European Union (EU). These lists are designed to attract public and private attention and investments to secure both domestic and foreign supplies. This review article fills a gap in the existing literature by analyzing the ways in which these lists are defined and utilized by countries engaged in a mineral rush. We focus our attention on three categories of minerals – battery minerals, platinum-group metals (PGMs), and rare earth elements (REEs) that are particularly important to energy transitions. We situate this research in the broader legal and administrative developments that have driven critical minerals policies in the past decade. We provide an in-depth analysis of the commonalities and variations in the raw materials included in these lists, and identify six core limitations of critical minerals lists: (1) unclear links between criticality assessments and mineral prioritization (2) failure to account for the full mineral value-chain; (3) limited strategic alignment between allied nations; (4) limited flexibility in dynamic environments (5) limited consideration for recycling and by-product sourcing; and (6) reliance on incomplete reserve and resource data.

Battery minerals↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigating feasible light configurations for fish restoration: an ethological insight

Light environment significantly impacts the effectiveness of fish population restoration in developed watersheds, subserving fish passage reconstruction in hydraulic complex and habitat rehabilitation. To develop an interior connection between light-related fish response from the laboratory and field fish conservation practice, we employed a new indexing system, consisting of phototaxis rate, relative swimming speed (RSS), and optic evasion coefficient (OEC), to quantify the light-induced behaviors in Ptychobarbus kaznakovi, a representative rare cyprinid in Tibet, China, at four experimental illuminance levels (15 lx, 30 lx, 60 lx, 120 lx) and four wavelengths (red, yellow, green, blue). The fish showed negative phototaxis at all given illuminances and wavelengths. Under red light, the OEC increased significantly from 0.642 at 15 lx to 0.782 at 30 lx (P = 0.029), while the RSS decreased significantly from 3.752 to 2.383 (P < 0.001). Behaviorally, the fish shifted from sprint to wandering around, indicating the alteration of dominant physiological activity from behavioral stress response to negative phototaxis. Under the green treatment, P. kaznakovi swam around quickly and presented slight negative phototaxis, and OEC values were uniform among all illuminances, probably because of the similarity of green light to the ambient color of the habitat. Accordingly, ecologists and fisheries practitioners can utilize red light to exclude fish from dangerous waters and green light to guide them to ideal habitats, laying the necessary groundwork for the light-driven fish recovery effort. Furthermore, the appropriate light configuration can yield economic benefits through the tradeoff among fish protection, power generation, and investment costs.

Lin, Chenyu↗