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At least 631 records · Page 35

Tree Rings Reveal a 700-Year Record of Flooding in Bangladesh

Tens of millions of people in Bangladesh and northeastern India rely on summer monsoon rains, which annually swell surface waterways and slake dry soils, for their basic water needs and for agricultural productivity. However, the monsoon can also bring destruction, as seen in summer 2020 when many regions of Bangladesh were devastated by extreme flooding.

Bangladesh↗

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗

Status of the mechanical design of the 650 MHz cavities for Project X

In the high-energy section of the Project X Linac, acceleration of H{sup -} ions takes place in superconducting cavities operating at 650 MHz. Two families of five-cell elliptical cavities are planned: beta = 0.61 and beta = 0.9. A specific feature of the Project X Linac is low beam loading, and thus, low bandwidth and higher sensitivity to microphonics. Efforts to optimize the mechanical design of the cavities to improve their mechanical stability in response to the helium bath pressure fluctuations will be presented. These efforts take into account constraints such as cost and ease of fabrication. Also discussed will be the overall design status of the cavities and their helium jackets. The proposed design of the 3 GeV Project X superconducting (SC) Linac employs 650 MHz five-cell elliptical cavities to accelerate 1.0 mA of average H-beam current in the 160-3000 MeV energy range. The 650 MHz region of the Linac is divided into two sections with two different geometric phase velocity factors: beta = 0.61 to cover the 160-520 MeV range and beta = 0.9 to cover the 520-3000 MeV range. Approximately 40 beta = 0.61 and 150 beta = 0.9 cavities are currently planned for the project. An R&D program is in progress at FNAL, in collaboration with TJNAF and India, to develop the 650 MHz cavities for the proposed Linac design. This R&D program includes the design and fabrication of several beta = 0.61 and beta = 0.9 single-cell prototypes for evaluation prior to production of the five-cell cavities. FNAL has contracted AES to fabricate the beta = 0.9 prototypes, while TJNAF is building beta = 0.61 prototypes of their own design. In the remainder of this paper we will restrict our discussion to the five-cell beta = 0.9 cavities.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Ganges valley aerosol experiment.

In June 2011, the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) began in the Ganges Valley region of India. The objective of this field campaign is to obtain measurements of clouds, precipitation, and complex aerosols to study their impact on cloud formation and monsoon activity in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Knowledge Transfer Project: Cultivating Smart Energy Solutions through Dynamic Peer-to-Peer Learning

As energy policy makers and professionals convene in the Oresund region for the 9th Annual Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM9), the global community is as united as ever around the common goal of accelerating the transition to global clean energy. Through sustained collective effort and thought leadership, CEM partners and stakeholders are systematically addressing the barriers to the widescale deployment of clean energy technologies. Pivotal to their progress is the efficient sharing and dissemination of knowledge. To address that need, the CEM-initiative International SmartGrid Action Network (ISGAN) launched the Knowledge Transfer Project (KTP) in March 2016 to capture, collect, and share knowledge about smart grid technologies among countries and key stakeholders. Building on ISGAN's experience with delivering deep-dive workshops, the KTP fosters meaningful international dialogue on smart grids with a focus on developing competence and building capacity. After a successful 2016 pilot project and two consecutive projects, each with a different focus and structure, the KTP has become an established practice that can support existing ISGAN or CEM initiatives. To accommodate different purposes, needs, and practical circumstances, ISGAN has adopted three basic models for delivering KTP workshops: Country-Centric, Multilateral, and Hybrid. This fact sheet describes each approach through case studies of workshops in Mexico, India, and Belgium, and invites new ideas and partners for future KTPs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Expert Connections Empower Bankable Solar Projects

The International Solar Alliance (ISA) formed in 2015 to serve as a collaborative platform for increasing solar energy technology deployment worldwide. Currently, the ISA includes more than 65 signatory countries that are working with global partners to improve their access to affordable and reliable clean energy. In support of ISA member countries, the U.S. Department of Energy and the Australian Government's Department of Environment and Energy selected the Clean Energy Solutions Center (Solutions Center) to help mobilize private investment in solar technologies associated with this global effort. The Solutions Center is partnering with ISA selected partners to provide a range of technical assistance services, training programs, and other capacity building resources. The U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory serves as the operating agent for the Clean Energy Solutions Center. The International Solar Alliance is Headquartered in India where the National Institute of Solar Energy serves as interim Secretariat.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Key Takeaways: First Cohort of Action Plans for Rapid Power Sector Decarbonization

The purpose of this synthesis report is to extract key takeaways from the first cohort of CEM Action Plans for rapid power sector decarbonization, developed by Australia, Chile, the European Union, India, and the United Kingdom. These Action Plans differ in their approach to power sector decarbonization based on the domestic resources available, governance structure, and regional context, among other factors. However, they also share common themes that were emphasized in the collaborative report released at CEM13. This report is not intended to be inclusive of all components in each Action Plan. Rather, this report highlights how select best practices for planning, building, and operating power systems are being implemented differently in these Action Plans, with equal focus given to each jurisdiction. Ministers and stakeholders from other governments with similar decarbonization goals can consider these examples within their own unique context.

Australia↗

Radioactive waste management in France: taking-up present and future challenges - 15120

The reduction of the volume and radiotoxicity of radioactive waste has been one of the key drivers for the implementation of the French nuclear program. Interactions between the nuclear industry, the administration, the competent authorities and other stakeholders including the civil society has led to a continuous evolution of the industrial facilities, practices, solutions and products to move towards waste minimization. Bringing a solution to the management of ultimate radioactive waste is clearly a requirement for the sustainable development of nuclear energy whose crucial role in the world's future energy mix has been confirmed in the past few months by several international organizations. The first question to be answered concerns the definition of radioactive waste. This notion may be seen as self-evident. It is not. For example, used fuel is considered a High Level Waste in Finland or Sweden, but a recyclable material in countries including China, France, India, Japan, Russia, and the Netherlands. In France, a definition is provided by law to clarify this notion. Indeed, the 2006 French law concerning the Sustainable Management of Radioactive Materials and Waste stipulates that 'ultimate radioactive waste shall include any radioactive waste for which no further processing is possible under current technical and economic conditions, notably by extracting their recoverable fraction or by reducing their polluting or hazardous character'. Used fuel is thus reprocessed in order to reduce the final waste volume and long term radiotoxicity, while extracting value from the recovered materials. Even if the general approach and the processes may be common for waste management, it is important to clearly make the distinction between the wastes stemming from used fuel processing or conditioning (when considered as waste), the wastes generated through the operation of nuclear power plants and fuel cycle facilities, and the waste arising from the dismantling of nuclear installations. After a brief overview of the different types of waste stemming from nuclear power generation, this paper will review solutions and processes already implemented for their safe and efficient management. It will also practically illustrate the evolution of these processes and related facilities to further gain in efficiency, notably in terms of volume reduction; the related R and D outcomes will be addressed. It will also describe the upcoming challenges in this field and the envisioned solutions to respond to them; the efficiency, the completeness and consistency of these solutions with the currently considered global framework, based on a stepwise and long term approach from waste generation to disposal, will also be analyzed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Constructing Memory Through Artistic Practices - 18197

I have been investigating radioactive waste sites internationally since 1994, analyzing how this archaeological stratum of the 21. century can be read in the landscape. Over more than twenty years of work this research has led me to visit several sites around the world. My focus has become the identification of the disposal sites in the landscape, as well as finding ways to pass on memory. Reports on Disposal Sites and Exhibitions: - Dessel, Belgium - exhibition at De Markten, Brussels; - Sacavem, Portugal - participation to the World Exhibition in Lisbon; - El Cabril, Spain - workshop at the University of Bilbao; - Angra dos Reis, Brazil - exhibition at Centre cultural Puc, Rio de Janeiro; - Rokkasho Mura, Japan - exhibition at gallery Gen, Tokyo; - Soulaines D'Huys, France - exhibition at art gallery Cours Carree, Paris; - CSM, Beaumont-Hague, France - exhibition at the House of Culture in Tournai, Belgium; - Fortsmark, Sweden - exhibition at 340 Muzeum, Brussels; - Cnesten Maamora, Morocco - exhibition at Villa des Arts, Casablanca; - Bhabha Atomic Research, Trombay, India - I was allowed to visit it but it was forbidden to make photographs or drawings. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Maskelynite formation via solid-state transformation: Evidence of infrared and x-ray anisotropy

We present optical microscopy, micro-Raman spectroscopy, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, high-energy X-ray total scattering experiments, and micro-Fourier transform infrared (micro-FTIR) spectroscopy on shocked labradorite from the Lonar Crater, India. We show that maskelynite of shock class 2 is structurally more similar to fused glass than to crystalline plagioclase. However, there are slight but significant differences – preservation of original pre-impact igneous zoning, anisotropy at Infrared wavelengths, X-ray anisotropy, and preservation of some intermediate range order – which are all consistent with a solid-state transformation formation of maskelynite.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A space-based, high-resolution view of notable changes in urban NO x pollution around the world (2005-2014)

Nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2 ) are produced during combustion processes and, thus may serve as a proxy for fossil fuel-based energy usage and coemitted greenhouse gases and other pollutants. We use high-resolution nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) to analyze changes in urban NO 2 levels around the world from 2005 to 2014, finding complex heterogeneity in the changes. We discuss several potential factors that seem to determine these NO x changes. First, environmental regulations resulted in large decreases. The only large increases in the United States may be associated with three areas of intensive energy activity. Second, elevated NO 2 levels were observed over many Asian, tropical, and subtropical cities that experienced rapid economic growth. Two of the largest increases occurred over recently expanded petrochemical complexes in Jamnagar (India) and Daesan (Korea). Third, pollution transport from China possibly influenced the Republic of Korea and Japan, diminishing the impact of local pollution controls. However, in China, there were large decreases over Beijing, Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta, which were likely associated with local emission control efforts. Fourth, civil unrest and its effect on energy usage may have resulted in lower NO 2 levels in Libya, Iraq, and Syria. Fifth, spatial heterogeneity within several megacities may reflect mixed efforts to cope with air quality degradation. We also show the potential of high-resolution data for identifying NO x emission sources in regions with a complex mix of sources. Lastly, intensive monitoring of the world's tropical/subtropical megacities will remain a priority, as their populations and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases are expected to increase significantly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Confronting the “Indian summer monsoon response to black carbon aerosol” with the uncertainty in its radiative forcing and beyond

While black carbon aerosols (BC) are believed to modulate the Indian monsoons, the radiative forcing estimate of BC suffers from large uncertainties globally. In this paper, we analyze a suite of idealized experiments forced with a range of BC concentrations that span a large swath of the latest estimates of its global radiative forcing. Within those bounds of uncertainty, summer precipitation over the Indian region increases nearly linearly with the increase in BC burden. The linearity holds even as the BC concentration is increased to levels resembling those hypothesized in nuclear winter scenarios, despite large surface cooling over India and adjoining regions. The enhanced monsoonal circulation is associated with a linear increase in the large-scale meridional tropospheric temperature gradient. The precipitable water over the region also increases linearly with an increase in BC burden, due to increased moisture transport from the Arabian sea to the land areas. The wide range of Indian monsoon response elicited in these experiments emphasizes the need to reduce the uncertainty in BC estimates to accurately quantify their role in modulating the Indian monsoons. Finally, the increase in monsoonal circulation in response to large BC concentrations contrasts earlier findings that the Indian summer monsoon may break down following a nuclear war.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of explicit convection on global land-atmosphere coupling in the superparameterized CAM

Here, conventional global climate models are prone to producing unrealistic land-atmosphere coupling signals. Cumulus and convection parameterizations are natural culprits but the effect of bypassing them with explicitly resolved convection on global land-atmosphere coupling dynamics has not been explored systematically. We apply a suite of modern land-atmosphere coupling diagnostics to isolate the effect of cloud Superparameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM) v3.5, focusing on both the terrestrial segment (i.e., soil moisture and surface turbulent fluxes interaction) and atmospheric segment (i.e., surface turbulent fluxes and precipitation interaction) in the water pathway of the landatmosphere feedback loop. At daily timescales, SPCAM produces stronger uncoupled terrestrial signals (negative sign) over tropical rainforests in wet seasons, reduces the terrestrial coupling strength in the Central Great Plain in American, and reverses the coupling sign (from negative to positive) over India in the boreal summer season—all favorable improvements relative to reanalysis-forced land modeling. Analysis of the triggering feedback strength (TFS) and amplification feedback strength (AFS) shows that SPCAM favorably reproduces the observed geographic patterns of these indices over North America, with the probability of afternoon precipitation enhanced by high evaporative fraction along the eastern United States and Mexico, while conventional CAM does not capture this signal. We introduce a new diagnostic called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Feedback Strength (PFS), which reveals that SPCAM exhibits a tight connection between the responses of the lifting condensation level, the PBL height, and the rainfall triggering to surface turbulent fluxes; a triggering disconnect is found in CAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optimizing multiple reliable forward contracts for reservoir allocation using multitime scale streamflow forecasts

Streamflow forecasts at multiple time scales provide a new opportunity for reservoir management to address competing objectives. Market instruments such as forward contracts with specified reliability are considered as a tool that may help address the perceived risk associated with the use of such forecasts in lieu of traditional operation and allocation strategies. A water allocation process that enables multiple contracts for water supply and hydropower production with different durations, while maintaining a prescribed level of flood risk reduction, is presented. The allocation process is supported by an optimization model that considers multitime scale ensemble forecasts of monthly streamflow and flood volume over the upcoming season and year, the desired reliability and pricing of proposed contracts for hydropower and water supply. It solves for the size of contracts at each reliability level that can be allocated for each future period, while meeting target end of period reservoir storage with a prescribed reliability. The contracts may be insurable, given that their reliability is verified through retrospective modeling. The process can allow reservoir operators to overcome their concerns as to the appropriate skill of probabilistic forecasts, while providing water users with short–term and long–term guarantees as to how much water or energy they may be allocated. An application of the optimization model to the Bhakra Dam, India, provides an illustration of the process. In conclusion, the issues of forecast skill and contract performance are examined. A field engagement of the idea is useful to develop a real–world perspective and needs a suitable institutional environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dominant Controls of Downdip Afterslip and Viscous Relaxation on the Postseismic Displacements Following the M w 7.9 Gorkha, Nepal, Earthquake

Here, we analyze three-dimensional GPS coordinate time series from continuously operating stations in Nepal and South Tibet and calculate the initial 1 year postseismic displacements. We first investigate models of poroelastic rebound, afterslip, and viscoelastic relaxation individually and then attempt to resolve the trade-offs between their contributions by evaluating the misfit between observed and simulated displacements. We compare kinematic inversions for distributed afterslip with stress-driven afterslip models. The modeling results show that no single mechanism satisfactorily explains near- and far-field postseismic deformation following the Gorkha earthquake. When considering contributions from all three mechanisms, we favor a combination of viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip alone, as poroelastic rebound always worsens the misfit. The combined model does not improve the data misfit significantly, but the inverted afterslip distribution is more physically plausible. The inverted afterslip favors slip within the brittle-ductile transition zone downdip of the coseismic rupture and fills the small gap between the mainshock and largest aftershock slip zone, releasing only 7% of the coseismic moment. Our preferred model also illuminates the laterally heterogeneous rheological structure between India and the South Tibet. The transient and steady state viscosities of the upper mantle beneath Tibet are constrained to be greater than 10 18 Pa s and 10 19 Pa s, whereas the Indian upper mantle has a high viscosity ≥10 20 Pa s. The viscosity in the lower crust of southern Tibet shows a clear trade-off with its southward extent and thickness, suggesting an upper bound value of ~8 × 10 19 Pa s for its steady state viscosity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations

In this paper, we present a multi-scale study examining the impact of a regional exchange of nuclear weapons on global climate. Our models investigate multiple phases of the effects of nuclear weapons usage, including growth and rise of the nuclear fireball, ignition and spread of the induced firestorm, and comprehensive Earth system modeling of the oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. This study follows from the scenario originally envisioned by Robock et al. (2007a), based on the analysis of Toon et al. (2007), which assumes a regional exchange between India and Pakistan of fifty 15-kiloton weapons detonated by each side. We expand this scenario by modeling the processes that lead to production of black carbon, in order to refine the black carbon forcing estimates of these previous studies. When the Earth system model is initiated with 5 × 10 9 kg of black carbon in the upper troposphere (approximately 9 to 13 km), the impact on climate variables such as global temperature and precipitation in our simulations is similar to that predicted by previously published work. However, while our thorough simulations of the firestorm produce about 3.7 × 10 9 kg of black carbon, we find that the vast majority of the black carbon never reaches an altitude above weather systems (approximately 12 km). Therefore, our Earth system model simulations conducted with model-informed atmospheric distributions of black carbon produce significantly lower global climatic impacts than assessed in prior studies, as the carbon at lower altitudes is more quickly removed from the atmosphere. In addition, our model ensembles indicate that statistically significant effects on global surface temperatures are limited to the first 5 years and are much smaller in magnitude than those shown in earlier works. None of the simulations produced a nuclear winter effect. We find that the effects on global surface temperatures are not uniform and are concentrated primarily around the highest arctic latitudes, dramatically reducing the global impact on human health and agriculture compared with that reported by earlier studies. Lastly, our analysis demonstrates that the probability of significant global cooling from a limited exchange scenario as envisioned in the previous studies is highly unlikely, a conclusion supported by examination of natural analogs, such as large forest fires and volcanic eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Standards development for modules in high temperature micro-environments

Photovoltaic (PV) module qualification standards, IEC 61215 and IEC 61730, were designed to apply to “general open-air climates” and IEC 61730 specifically indicated applicability of ambient air temperature of 40°C. Additionally, these standards provided allowances for so-called “open rack mounted PV modules” without a clear definition of “open-rack.” These implied restrictions and allowances meant that hotter climates or thermally restrictive installation methods may not be covered by these often customer-mandated certification standards. This is particularly salient for the significant growth regions of the Middle East and India that would be expected to operate at significantly higher temperatures. The applicability of these documents raised issues over the definition of “open rack” and the fact that the geographic location is just as important as the mounting configuration in assessing the impact of the micro-environment of a PV module. This work summarizes the scientific background for IEC Technical Specification 63126:2020 ED1, titled “Guidelines for qualifying PV modules components and materials for operation at high temperatures.” This standard was recently published by the IEC and is the first step in a systematic effort to rework these standards to address the question of temperature more directly. Instead of specifying a mounting condition, we specify different suites of tests suitable for a system (PV module, mounting style, and location) defined by the 98th percentile cell temperature. With a defined temperature regime to work from, this allowed us to use existing literature research combined with additional modeling work to determine, which tests would need to be modified. This resulted in suggested changes to material thermal indices, thermal cycling temperatures, hot spot testing, ultraviolet testing, and bypass diode testing among other tests and characteristics described in this study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗