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At least 631 records · Page 35

Four Theories of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract Studies of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) have progressed considerably during the past decades in observations, numerical modeling, and theoretical understanding. Many theoretical attempts have been made to identify the most essential processes responsible for the existence of the MJO. Criteria are proposed to separate a hypothesis from a theory (based on the first principles with quantitative and testable assumptions, able to predict quantitatively the fundamental scales and eastward propagation of the MJO). Four MJO theories are selected to be summarized and compared in this article: the skeleton theory, moisture‐mode theory, gravity‐wave theory, and trio‐interaction theory of the MJO. These four MJO theories are distinct from each other in their key assumptions, parameterized processes, and, particularly, selection mechanisms for the zonal spatial scale, time scale, and eastward propagation of the MJO. The comparison of the four theories and more recent development in MJO dynamical approaches lead to a realization that theoretical thinking of the MJO is diverse and understanding of MJO dynamics needs to be further advanced.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Influence of Intraseasonal Variability on the Development of Monsoon Depressions

Previous studies showed that the activity of monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS), which produce a large fraction of the South Asian monsoon's total rainfall, is modulated by intraseasonal variability. Using satellite-derived products and atmospheric reanalyzes, this study examines how the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) separately modulates the occurrence of weaker LPS (lows) and stronger LPS (depressions). It is found that the genesis of lows is insensitive to ISO phase, while depressions exhibit a strong preference for genesis during the phase that is convectively active over the northern Indian Ocean. Essentially, development of LPS into depressions depends upon the timing of genesis of the initial disturbance. Evidence is presented supporting the hypothesis that the development of lows into depressions is fostered by large-scale atmospheric conditions governed by the ISO. Furthermore, results also suggest that while lows have no preference for forming over ocean compared to land, depressions mostly form over ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lower Tropospheric Processes: A Control on the Global Mean Precipitation Rate

The spread in global mean precipitation among climate models is explored in two ensembles using the complementary perspectives of surface evaporation and energy budgets. Models with higher global mean precipitation have stronger oceanic evaporation, driven by drier near-surface air. The drier surface conditions occur alongside increases in near-surface temperature and moisture at 925 hPa, which point to stronger boundary layer mixing. Correlations suggest that the degree of lower tropospheric mixing explains 18%–49% of the intermodel precipitation variance. To test this hypothesis, the degree of mixing is indirectly varied in a single-model experiment by adjusting the relative humidity threshold that controls low-cloud fraction. Indeed, increasing lower tropospheric mixing results in more global mean precipitation. Energetically, increased precipitation rates are associated with more downwelling longwave radiation to the surface and weaker sensible heat fluxes. These results highlight how lower-tropospheric processes must be better constrained to reduce the precipitation discrepancy among climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Role of Premagmatic Rifting in Shaping a Volcanic Continental Margin: An Example From the Eastern North American Margin

Both magmatic and tectonic processes contribute to the formation of volcanic continental margins. Such margins are thought to undergo extension across a narrow zone of lithospheric thinning (~100 km). New observations based on existing and reprocessed data from the Eastern North American Margin contradict this hypothesis. With ~64,000 km of 2-D seismic data tied to 40 wells combined with published refraction, deep reflection, receiver function, and onshore drilling efforts, we quantified along-strike variations in the distribution of rift structures, magmatism, crustal thickness, and early post-rift sedimentation under the shelf of Baltimore Canyon Trough (BCT), Long Island Platform, and Georges Bank Basin (GBB). Results indicate that BCT is narrow (80–120 km) with a sharp basement hinge and few rift basins. The seaward dipping reflectors (SDR) there extend ~50 km seaward of the hinge line. In contrast, the GBB is wide (~200 km), has many syn-rift structures, and the SDR there extend ~200 km seaward of the hinge line. Early post-rift depocenters at the GBB coincide with thinner crust suggesting “uniform” thinning of the entire lithosphere. Models for the formation of volcanic margins do not explain the wide structure of the GBB. We argue that crustal thinning of the BCT was closely associated with late syn-rift magmatism, whereas the broad thinning of the GBB segment predated magmatism. Correlation of these variations to crustal terranes of different compositions suggests that the inherited rheology determined the premagmatic response of the lithosphere to extension.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Role of Stratigraphy and Loading History in Generating Complex Compaction Bands in Idealized Field-Scale Settings

The Buckskin Gulch locality in Utah is a landmark example of compaction localization. The outcrop of this locality involves distinct stratigraphic heterogeneity and was exposed to complex loading history. It features multiple sets of deformation bands with different kinematics and orientation. Similar formations were seen in the Valley of Fire, Nevada, and the Orange quarry, France, among other localities. The formation of such complex structures, their propagation mechanisms, and frequency is affected by numerous local and ambient factors whose impacts are not yet fully understood. The simulation of the above-mentioned localities is not feasible because of the limited amount of available information. This work, instead, investigates from a geomechanics standpoint how the interplay among material nonlinearity, outcrop stratigraphy, and loading history interconnects with specific spatiotemporal patterns of compaction band propagation. Our study shows that the system stratigraphy can be responsible for the emergence of coexisting compaction bands with different inclination and kinematics. Specifically, we show that stiffness contrasts induce nonlocal stress changes which may favor the initiation of secondary structures with different compaction localization characteristics. Furthermore, systems of inclined compaction bands induced by burial increase display secondary, noncontemporaneous sets of vertical compaction bands under the effects of postburial shortening. Our results indicate that stages of intermediate burial decrease prior to tectonic shortening can promote the formation of such complex systems. Despite the simplifications involved in our analyses, these findings show how geomechanics computations complement field observations and could provide a mechanics-based validation of site-specific reconstruction hypothesis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Direct Observation of the Depth of Active Groundwater Circulation in an Alpine Watershed

Abstract The depth of active groundwater circulation is a fundamental control on stream flows and chemistry in mountain watersheds, yet it remains challenging to characterize and is rarely well constrained. We collected hydraulic conductivity, hydraulic head, temperature, chemical, noble gas, and 3 H/ 3 He groundwater age data from discrete levels in two boreholes 46 and 81 m deep in an alpine watershed, in combination with chemical and age data from shallow groundwater discharge, to discern groundwater flow rates at different depths and directly observe active and inactive groundwater. Vertical head gradients are steep (average of 0.4) and thermal profiles are consistent with typical linear conductive continental geotherms. Groundwater deeper than ∼20 m is distinct from shallow groundwater and creek water in its chemistry, noble gas signature, and age (dominantly >65 years compared to <9 years). Together these results suggest low vertical groundwater flow velocities and a relatively shallow active circulation depth of ∼20 m. This hypothesis is tested with a simple 2‐D numerical fluid flow and heat transport model representing a hillslope transect through the two boreholes. The modeling indicates that the subhorizontally bedded sedimentary rocks underlying the basin are highly anisotropic with low vertical hydraulic conductivity, and at most ∼10% of bedrock recharge (equivalent to <2% of stream baseflow) flows below a depth of 20 m. The study demonstrates the considerable value of discrete‐depth hydrogeologic, chemical, and age data for determining active circulation depth, and illustrates an approach for maximizing the utility of individual boreholes drilled for mountain bedrock aquifer characterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Does LCL Height Influence Deep Convective Updraft Width?

Previous studies have hypothesized that the width of deep convection should positively scale with lifting condensation level (LCL) height. To evaluate this hypothesis, we analyzed idealized large-eddy simulations with varying LCL heights and initial warm bubble widths in unsheared environments with comparable convective available potential energy. For a given initial warm bubble width, simulations with higher LCLs result in wider, deeper, and stronger cloudy updrafts compared to simulations with lower LCLs. Rising dry thermals in higher LCL simulations experience longer residence times within the sub-cloud layer, and consequently entrain more conditionally unstable air and grow wider before reaching the LCL. The resulting cloudy updrafts are wider, deeper, and have faster vertical velocities because of a reduction in entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy, relative to lower LCL simulations. These results confirm the hypothesized positive relationship between LCL height and deep convective updraft width, and provide a physical explanation for this relationship.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dissecting Anvil Cloud Response to Sea Surface Warming

Abstract We derive an anvil cloud diagnostic from the continuity equation of cloud ice and apply it to the output of convection‐permitting Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations run in radiative‐convective equilibrium mode. This diagnostic shows that anvil cloud fraction can be reliably diagnosed as a product of cloud detrainment and lifetime. Detrainment is found to be approximated well by a product of clear sky convergence and cloud ice mixing ratio, while cloud lifetime is dominated by sedimentation. Taken together, this diagnostic expresses anvil cloud fraction as a function of five physically measurable quantities. Of these, clear‐sky convergence changes drive the anvil cloud reduction with warming while an increase in cloud ice mixing ratio buffers the decrease. Accordingly, this study provides a theoretical foundation upon which the Stability‐Iris hypothesis can be tested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

River Organic Carbon Fluxes Modulated by Hydrodynamic Sorting of Particulate Organic Matter

Rivers regulate the global carbon cycle by transferring particulate organic carbon (POC) from terrestrial landscapes to marine sedimentary basins, but the processes controlling the amount and composition of fluvially exported POC are poorly understood. We propose that hydrodynamic sorting processes modify POC fluxes during fluvial transit. We test this hypothesis by studying POC transported along a ~1,200 km reach of the Rio Bermejo, Argentina. Nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry revealed that POC was either fine, mineral-associated organic matter, or coarse discrete organic particles. Mineral-associated POC is more resistant to oxidation and has a lower particle settling velocity than discrete POC. Consequently, hydraulic sorting and downstream fining amplify the proportion of fine, mineral-associated POC from ~55% to ~78% over 1,220 km of downstream transit. This suggests that mineral-associated POC has a greater probability of export and preservation in marine basins than plant detritus, which may be oxidized to CO 2 during transit.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wintertime Brine Discharge at the Surface of a Cold Polar Glacier and the Unexpected Absence of Associated Seismicity

A subglacial groundwater system beneath Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, discharges hypersaline, iron-rich brine episodically at the glacier surface to create Blood Falls. However, the triggering mechanism for these brine release events is not yet understood. Identifying which fracture processes are observed seismically can help us better characterize the hydrological system at Taylor Glacier, and more generally, provide us with a broader understanding of englacial hydrologic activity in cold glaciers. We document wintertime brine discharge using time-lapse photography. Subfreezing air temperatures during the brine discharge indicate that surface melt-induced hydrofracture is an unlikely trigger for brine release. Further, we analyze local seismic data to test a hypothesis that fracturing generates elevated surface wave energy preceding and/or coinciding with brine release events. Our results show no discernible elevated Rayleigh wave activity prior to or during Blood Falls brine release. Instead, we find a pattern of seismic events dominated by a seasonal signal, with more Rayleigh events occurring in the summer than the winter from the Blood Falls source area. We calculate that the volumetric opening of cracks that would generate Rayleigh waves at our detection limits are of similar size to myriad cracks in glacier ice, lake ice, and frozen sediment in the terminus area. We therefore propose that any fracturing coincident with brine release activity likely consists of a series of smaller opening events that are masked by other seismicity in the local environment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High Free-Tropospheric Aitken-Mode Aerosol Concentrations Buffer Cloud Droplet Concentrations in Large-Eddy Simulations of Precipitating Stratocumulus

A new Aitken mode aerosol microphysics scheme is developed for a large eddy simulation model in order to better investigate cloud-aerosol interactions in the marine boundary layer and to study the Aitken buffering hypothesis of McCoy et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033529. This scheme extends the single-mode two-moment prognostic aerosol scheme of Berner et al. (2013), https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12549-2013. Seven prognostic variables represent accumulation and Aitken log-normal aerosol modes in air and droplets as well as 3 gas species. Scavenging of interstitial and other unactivated aerosol by cloud and rain drops are treated using the scheme described in Berner et al. (2013), https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-12549-2013. The scheme includes coagulation of unactivated aerosol and a simple chemistry model with gas phase H 2 SO 4 , SO 2 , and DMS as prognostic variables to capture basic influences of sulfur chemistry on the model aerosols. Nucleation of H 2 SO 4 aerosol particles from gas-phase H 2 SO 4 is neglected. A deep, precipitating stratocumulus case (VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study RF06) is used to test the new scheme. The presence of the Aitken mode aerosol increases the cloud droplet concentration through activation of the larger Aitken particles and delays the creation of an ultraclean, strongly precipitating cumulus state. Scavenging of unactivated accumulation and Aitken particles by cloud and precipitation droplets accelerates the collapse. Increasing either the above-inversion Aitken concentration or the surface Aitken flux increases the Aitken population in the boundary layer and prevents the transition to an ultraclean state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monitoring Seismic Velocity Changes Across the San Jacinto Fault Using Train‐Generated Seismic Tremors

Abstract Microseismic noise has been used for seismic velocity monitoring. However, such signals are dominated by low‐frequency surface waves that are not ideal for detecting changes associated with small tectonic processes. Here we show that it is possible to extract stable, high‐frequency body waves using seismic tremors generated by freight trains. Such body waves allow us to focus on small velocity perturbations in the crust with high spatial resolution. We report on 10 years of seismic velocity temporal changes at the San Jacinto Fault. We observe and map a two‐month‐long episode of velocity changes with complex spatial distribution and interpret the velocity perturbation as produced by a previously undocumented slow‐slip event. We verify the hypothesis through numerical simulations and locate this event along a fault segment believed to be locked. Such a slow‐slip event stresses its surroundings and may trigger a major earthquake on a fault section approaching failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Air Pollution Unable to Intensify Storms via Warm‐Phase Invigoration

Abstract According to the hypothesis of aerosol invigoration, the higher concentration of aerosols in polluted air intensifies storms. A leading theory for explaining such a relationship is warm‐phase invigoration, in which cloudy updrafts that are more polluted more readily condense water vapor onto liquid drops, thereby releasing latent heat faster, leading to higher buoyancies and higher updraft speeds. For this mechanism to work, water‐vapor supersaturations well in excess of 1% must be typical of relatively unpolluted cloudy updrafts. Here, the supersaturation is calculated from in situ observations of warm‐phase cloudy updrafts over the Amazon. Instead of values well in excess of 1%, the typical values are found to be around 0.2%. These observations imply that cleaner preindustrial air might have generated supersaturations around 1%, but those are still too low for warm‐phase invigoration to have any practically significant impact on cloud buoyancy and updraft speeds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling in CMIP Earth System Models With the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) Software System

Abstract The International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource that we use here to evaluate surface and upper ocean biogeochemical variables and integrated anthropogenic carbon uptake from earth system models (ESMs) contributing to the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). IOMB generates graphics and tables for systematically comparing model predictions against multiple datasets. Our analysis reveals some improvement in the multi‐model mean from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for most of the variables we examined. Compared to data‐constrained estimates of ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake for the 1994–2007 period, negative biases exist for many models between 30 and 50°S. Global model estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake for the same period do not change significantly from CMIP5 to CMIP6, with the combined ensemble mean estimate of 27.8 ± 0.5 Pg C lower than a data‐constrained estimate of 33.0 ± 4.0 Pg C. At the same time, the change in the natural carbon inventory from CMIP is estimated to be a source of 0.7 ± 0.3 Pg C, which is considerably smaller in magnitude than a data‐constrained estimate of 5.0 ± 3.0 Pg C. With chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) predictions available for several models, we demonstrate that negative anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon biases coincide with negative biases in CFC concentration, highlighting the importance of weak exchange between the surface and interior ocean in regulating rates of anthropogenic carbon uptake. To examine the robustness of this attribution across the CMIP models, we calculate the global vertical temperature gradient between 200 and 1,000 m as a metric for global stratification and exchange between the surface and deeper waters. We find a linear relationship between the bias of the vertical temperature gradients and the bias in global anthropogenic carbon uptake, consistent with the hypothesis that model biases in anthropogenic carbon uptake are related to biases in surface‐to‐interior exchange by physical processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward a Realistic Representation of Sucrose Transport in the Phloem of Plants

The significance of phloem hydrodynamics to plant mortality and survival, which impacts ecosystem-scale carbon and water cycling, is not in dispute. The phloem provides the conduits for products of photosynthesis to be transported to different parts of the plant for consumption or storage. The M$\ddot{u}$nch pressure flow hypothesis (PFH) is the leading framework to mathematically represent this transport. It assumes that osmosis provides the necessary pressure differences to drive water and sucrose within the phloem. Mathematical models utilizing the PFH approximate the phloem by a relatively rigid slender semi-permeable tube. However, the phloem consists of living cells that contract and expand in response to pressure fluctuations. The effect of membrane elasticity on osmotically driven sucrose front speed has rarely been considered and frames the scope here. Laboratory experiments were conducted to elucidate the elastic-to-plastic pressure-deformation relation in membranes and their effect on sucrose front speeds. It is demonstrated that membrane elasticity acts to retard the sucrose front speed. The retardation emerges because of two effects: (a) part of the osmotic pressure is diverted to perform mechanical work to expand the membrane instead of pressurizing water, and (b) expansion of the membrane reduces the sucrose concentration driving osmotic potential due to volume increases and concomitant dilution effects. Finally, these results offer a novel perspective about the much discussed presence of sieve plates throughout the phloem acting as structural expansion dampers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Zonal Patterns in Late Quaternary Tropical South American Precipitation

Speleothem oxygen isotope records (δ 18 O) of tropical South American rainfall in the late Quaternary show a zonal “South American Precipitation Dipole” (SAPD). The dipole is characterized by opposing east-west precipitation anomalies compared to the present—wetter in the east and drier in the west at the mid-Holocene (~7 ka), and drier in the east and wetter in the west at the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka). However, the SAPD remains enigmatic because it is expressed differently in western versus eastern δ18O records and isotope-enabled climate model simulations usually misrepresent the magnitude and/or spatial pattern of δ 18 O change. Here, we address the SAPD enigma in two parts. First, we re-interpret the δ 18 O data to account for upwind rainout effects that are known to be pervasive in tropical South America, but are not always considered in Quaternary paleoclimate studies. Our revised interpretation reconciles the δ 18 O data with cave infiltration and other proxy records, and indicates that the centroid of tropical South American rainfall has migrated zonally over time. Second, using an energy balance model of tropical atmospheric circulation, we hypothesize that zonal migration of the precipitation centroid can be explained by regional energy budget shifts, such as changing Saharan albedo associated with the African Humid Period, that have not been modeled in previous SAPD studies. This hypothesis of a migrating precipitation centroid presents a new framework for interpreting δ18O records from tropical South America and may help explain the zonal rainfall anomalies that predate the late Quaternary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using the Shallow Strain Tensor to Characterize Deep Geologic Reservoirs

Abstract Storing and recovering water, carbon, and heat from geologic reservoirs is central to managing resources in a changing climate. We tested the hypothesis that the strain tensor caused by injecting or producing fluids can be measured at shallow depths and interpreted to advance understanding of underlying deep aquifers or reservoirs. Geodetic‐grade strainmeters were deployed at 30 m depth overlying the Bartlesville Formation, a 500‐m‐deep sandstone near Tulsa, OK. The strainmeters are 220 m east of injection well 9A completed in a permeable lens at the base of the Bartlesville Formation. Water was injected into well 9A at approximately 1.0 L/s during four tests that ranged in duration from a few hours to a few weeks. The horizontal strain increased (tension) and the circumferential strain was a few times larger than the radial strain. The vertical strain decreased (compression) during injection. Strain rates were approximately 100 nε/day during the first few hours, but the rates decreased and were approximately 10 nε/day during most of the tests. Four independent methods of poroelastic simulation and inversion predict reservoir properties and geometries that are similar to each other and consistent with independent information about the reservoir. All strain interpretations predict that a boundary to the permeable lens occurs beneath the vicinity of the strainmeters, which is consistent with core data from the site. The boundary of the permeable lens is located by matching the vertical, radial and circumferential strains, which demonstrates the value of measuring the strain tensor.

Murdoch, Lawrence C.↗

Tonian Carbonates Record Phosphate-Rich Shallow Seas

The early-middle Neoproterozoic is thought to have witnessed significant perturbations to marine P cycling, in turn facilitating the rise of eukaryote-dominated primary production. However, with few robust constraints on aqueous P concentrations, current understanding of Neoproterozoic P cycling is generally model-dependent. To provide new geochemical constraints, we combined microanalytical data sets with solid-state Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, synchrotron-based X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure spectroscopy, and micro-X-ray Fluorescence imaging to characterize the speciation and distribution of P in Tonian shallow-water carbonate rocks. These data reflect shallow water phosphate concentrations 10–100× higher than modern systems, supporting the hypothesis that tectonically-driven influxes in P periodically initiated kinetically-controlled CaCO 3 deposition, in turn destabilizing marine carbonate chemistry, climate, and nutrient inventories. Alongside these observations, a new compilation and statistical analysis of mudstone geochemistry data indicates that, in parallel, C org and P burial increased across later Tonian continental margins until becoming decoupled at the close of the Tonian, implicating widespread N-limitation triggered by increasing atmospheric O 2 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗