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At least 631 records · Page 35

Development and Integration of Predictive Models for Manufacturing and Structural Performance of Carbon Fiber Composites in Automotive Applications (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to develop integrated, state-of-the-art, computational modeling tools based on an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) methodology that are critically needed to enable structural carbon fiber (CF) applications in automobiles. These tools are designed to predict the manufacturing and structural performance of CF composites, including stochastic effects. During the first phase of the project, the manufacturing and structural performance tools, including a stochastic driver, were developed, calibrated, and validated against coupon and component level test results. For this project, from the manufacturing side, the development efforts were focused on high-pressure resin transfer molding (HP-RTM), a potentially game-changing manufacturing technology that is capable of reaching the 3-5-minute cycle time that is necessary for volume manufacturing of composites. On the structural performance side, the crashworthiness of CF structures was studied. Accordingly, computational tools were developed and validated. The resulting differences between the numerical predictions and the experimental results in the first phase of the project were required to be less than 15%. During the second phase of the project, the manufacturing and performance tools were integrated by mapping the manufacturing outcomes (e.g., fiber angles, residual stresses, degree of cure, and defects) into the structural models. Also, using the tools developed in this project, an automotive assembly currently manufactured in steel (2016 GM Malibu) was redesigned to be manufactured using advanced CF composites with the objective of comparing the performance of the CF assembly with the developed ICME model predictions. The weight, performance and cost of the CF assembly were compared with the baseline steel assembly as well. The CF underbody design was shown to be 30% lighter than the corresponding steel design. The CF underbody assembly withstood the side pole impact with less than half the intrusion for the steel assembly. Excellent correlations within 10% for both peak impact load and intrusion were observed between the numerical predictions and experimental results. Based on the cost models developed in the project, the cost increase per Kg saved was determined to be $22. The project team has prepared a total of 28 publications in various journals and conferences and broadly communicated the project results for the benefit of the composite industry. The project team has also prepared a total of 10 patent applications that were submitted to the US Patent and Trademark office.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Medium-duty Urban Range Extended Connected Powertrain (Final Scientific Technical Report)

The project goal is to develop and demonstrate a Class 4 delivery vehicle that reduces fuel consumption by 50% or more when compared to an equivalent vehicle with a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrain driven on a comparable duty cycle. This shall be achieved using a plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) configuration that optimizes the efficiency of the ICE. The proposed solution aims to be commercially viable for fleets to procure the system without additional incentives. To accomplish this, commercialized light-duty vehicle electric drive components shall be used. A PHEV configuration for Class 4 MD/HD vocational vehicles using commercialized light-duty vehicle electric drive components will require the development of a new topology for the hybrid powertrain applicable to medium-duty vehicles. Prior research indicates that an identified novel power split device could provide a fuel economy improvement potential of up to 51%. Utilizing an advanced battery management algorithm that will allow operation closer to the battery limits, the project will minimize battery capacity to achieve the desired performance results while maintaining the cost target for high commercialization. The solution must be cost effective to purchase and integrate into a Class 4 delivery vehicle, deliver the intended fuel economy improvement, and perform as well, or better, than the current conventional ICE powertrain. MD/HD vehicles typically require higher power, which is one factor that results in high costs for the powerful electric machines typical in larger HEV/PHEV systems. A key element in the project is the use of commercially available Bosch electric drive components (e.g., motors, batteries, and power electronics) from the larger passenger vehicle segment. This leverages the economies of scale to decrease cost and improve reliability beyond current purpose-built low-volume commercial vehicle components. These innovations will result in a game-changing PHEV system that meets DOE’s 50% fuel consumption reduction target, grants the vehicle an uncompromised driving range, and achieves the cost point for widespread adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The CanBikeCO Mini Pilot: Preliminary Results and Lessons Learned

In fall 2020, the Colorado Energy Office, as part of the State of Colorado’s “Can Do Colorado” initiative, initiated a project aimed at encouraging energy-efficient transportation during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial mini-pilot provided e-bikes to 13 low-income households under an individual ownership model. This report assesses the impact of providing this additional mobility option on the travel behavior of participants. It also outlines the lessons learned from deploying a continuous monitoring platform to track the travel behavior. These lessons will influence the evaluation component for the full pilot, which will cover multiple geographic regions, starting in summer 2021, and run for 2 years. The continuous data collection was enabled by a customized version of the open-source e-mission platform, called CanBikeCO, configured with a behavioral gamification feature. The Colorado Energy Office used this system to collect a unique data set consisting of 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed data and linked with demographic information, from 12 participants. The data collection process worked well overall: users generally liked the app, appreciated the game, and did not complain about battery life. The long tracking period introduced behavioral challenges in user engagement, which we plan to address using repeated patterns and automated status checks for the full pilot. The analysis results, based on the subset of trips with user-reported labels (68%), indicate that the e-bike was the dominant commute mode share (31%), in sharp contrast to the census bicycle commute mode share (<1%). E-bike trips primarily replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (28%), followed closely by walking (24%) and regular bike (20%). The nonmotorized mode replacement corresponds to lower travel time and increased productivity enabled by the program. The emissions impact analysis of the program, computed using trip-level energy intensity factors, indicates savings of 1,367 lbs. of CO 2 . Although the results are strongly positive, the narrow demographic profile of study participants, their limited mobility alternatives, and nonuniform labeling indicate caution in broader interpretation. These preliminary results do suggest that such programs, supported by real-time education and support from program managers, can simultaneously meet equity and sustainability goals. The planned full pilot, addressing the data collection challenges and broadening the geographic scope, will provide additional insights into the generality of this approach.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Deployment of Community Scale Solar Photovoltaic Energy Systems in Forest County Potawatomi Community

FCPC is a federally recognized tribe with a membership of more than 1400. The Tribe has a reservation in Forest County, Wisconsin, and tribal trust lands in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, with significant governmental and business operations in both areas. Until relatively recently, FCPC was one of the poorest tribes in the Midwest. Due to its successful gaming operations, it now has improved its financial situation and is using its resources to benefit both its members and the general public through environmental and other community efforts, many of which are long-delayed because of the extended period of abject poverty. The Tribe has developed the long-term goal of becoming energy independent using renewable resources. In order to meet this goal, the Tribe has taken several important steps. As an interim step, FCPC is purchasing nearly 55 million kilowatt hours of renewable energy certificates (“RECs”) annually from certified renewable energy facilities in the United States. These RECs offset more than 100% of the present electricity use at all of the Tribe’s facilities. The Tribe is currently ranked number 11 on the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Top 20 Local Government list of green power purchasers and is a member of the EPA’s Green Power Partnership. The original project suggested small scale installations on tribal homes and certain government buildings. The Tribe suggested that the project would result in 730 kw installed. By revising the project, the Tribe was able to install 938 kw and owns the largest installation in Northern Wisconsin with the 800 kW installation at the Potawatomi Carter Casino Hotel (“PCCH”). The PCCH installation, in summer months, can provide near 90% of the use during daylight hours. Although tracking was not immediately available FCPC has since confirmed significant production with certain quarterly savings nearing $210,000. These installations provide a reduction in facility costs providing more revenue for Tribal services including cultural, health, sustainable food sources, environmental preservation and other Tribal initiatives. Further, the installations have resulted in positive steps towards the Tribe’s goals of energy sovereignty and the use of 100% renewable clean energy. Finally, the PCCH project, specifically, has had the additional benefit of providing a likely area for a microgrid. The size of the installation and offset achieved have pushed the Tribe toward planning for storage and a microgrid system that would both further the Tribe’s energy goals and provide a safe haven for the Community during times of need.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimizing and Extending the Functionality of EXARL for Scalable Reinforcement Learning [Slides]

The main goal of the Co-Design Summer School 2021 is to provide algorithmic improvements to EXARL framework by improving performance and by adding functionalities. This presentation includes an introduction to reinforcement learning and to EXARL. The researchers expanded the capability of EXARL by including additional agents like (Asynchronized) Advantage Actor Critic (A2C/A3C) and Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3). They also explored algorithmic improvements such as v-trace and Prioritized Experience Replay. They found that A2C/A3C performed best with v-trace and outperformed Deep Q-Network (DQN) on both the CartPole game and the ExaBooster scientific environment. Additionally, they found that TD3 performed as good as the existing Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) agent and that adding Prioritized Experience Replay to DDPG accelerated convergence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SAGE Intrusion Detection System: Sensitivity Analysis Guided Explainability for Machine Learning.

This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tensor Text-Mining Methods for Malware Identification and Detection, Malware Dynamics Characterization, and Hosts Ranking

Malware is one of the most persistent and costly cyber threats endangering reputation, confidentiality, integrity, and availability for organizations and national security. Consequently, many of the incident detection and prevention systems, and incident responders have begun to utilize machine learning as a helper in the fight against malware and other cyber threats. However, cyber defenders rely on interpretability and generalizability, yet the popular machine learning methods are black-box and often use traditional supervised solutions that do not generalize to novel malware. Therefore, there is a need to improve the existing solutions. At the same time, the majority of the prior research ignored essential evaluation criteria when reporting the results of their methods, which disables the safe reproducibility of the methods in a production environment. Tensor decomposition, on the other hand, enables interpretable unsupervised analysis of the large-scale data for the discovery of hidden patterns. Our findings, performed on real-world and large-scale experiments, show that tensor factorization-based methods yield performance results that surpasses or competes with existing supervised solutions with the added benefit of interpretability and generalizability. With the ability to analyze complex and large-scale data using tensors, we report results that reflect real-world production environments. We propose to develop new game- changing tools for malware identification and characterization that can trace malware evolution, rank the infected or malicious hosts, and streamline the work of incident response teams, malware analysts, and incident detection and prevention systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Exploring Electrocatalysis of Methane on Transition Metal Surfaces

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas because it has a heat-absorbing ability that is 20 times stronger than the better-known carbon dioxide. It is also the dominant component of nature gas (>70%). Its current greenhouse effect is only second to carbon dioxide largely because of its relatively low atmospheric concentration. Alarmingly, however, the latter has seen a 1.5-time increase since 1750, mainly due to anthropogenic livestock farming, coal and natural gas mining, and organic matter decomposing in waste landfills. Mitigating such a trend effectively and efficiently is therefore highly desirable and intensely sought for. This final technical report describes some exciting research progresses made over the last three years supported financially by the aforementioned award. The research conducted focused on exploring electrochemical direct methane to methanol (DMTM) conversion under mild conditions. The goal of research was to explore the possibility of developing potentially game-changing electrocatalysts and electrocatalysis that can convert methane directly to methanol in a most sustainable way for curbing its effect on global warming. Progress has been made in the following three directions. First, by adapting a hydrogen fuel-cell configuration that enables gaseous methane to be transported directly to the electrocatalyst surface, we have overcome the perennial difficulty in measuring activity of methane electro-oxidation at low temperature and ambient pressure that has prevented any meaningful studies of electrocatalysis of methane conversion thus far. Second, we have developed a novel and operational in situ electrochemical infrared (IR) spectral cell for studying electrocatalysis of direct methane to methanol conversion. This novel cell is also expected to alleviate the measuring difficulty caused by low solubility of methane in aqueous electrolyte and low sticking coefficient for methane adsorption onto transition metal surface. It will improve significantly the IR’s signal to noise ratio. Third, we have successfully synthesized nano-sizing copper (Cu) exchanged zeolite mordenite (Cu-ZMOR) and coated it with carbon that enabled electrochemical access to the encaged Cu ions. This opens a door to unravel the chemistry of Cu ions in catalyzing direct methane to methanol conversion under mild experimental conditions. Altogether, these progresses achieved have laid a solid foundation for further exploring electrocatalysis of direct methane to methanol conversion in general where there exists “a plenty of room” for new discoveries and developments.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Novel Approaches to the Isolation of Glucaric Acid from Fermentation Broth. Final report

Kalion has successfully demonstrated a fermentation route using glucose as the feedstock. This game-changing technology allows Kalion to economically produce large-scale quantities of high-purity glucaric acid products. Kalion has also developed a novel downstream processing strategy for isolating and purifying glucaric acid forms, including the free acid, monoammonium glucarate, and monopotassium glucarate. Despite the low solubility of these products, significant water removal is needed prior to crystallization, requiring energy intensive evaporation or reverse osmosis. Here, we work in collaboration with the Separations Consortium to develop novel, low-cost means of water removal in Kalion’s glucarate/glucaric acid purification process. This proposed CRADA project with national labs (ORNL, ANL, and NREL) evaluated various technologies developed by the Separations Consortium as applied to glucaric acid purification, intended to generate a scalable, cost-effective, energy-efficient process. Four approaches were evaluated with mock aqueous solutions of glucaric acid or glucarate, and the results analyzed with respect to separation effectiveness and potential cost savings. The leading technology will then be further developed and tested with actual clarified or non-clarified broth (depending on the approach) obtained from 20L fermentations provided by Kalion, that will contain inorganic ions, byproducts, and residual sugars in addition to the product.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Characterizing Plug Load Energy Use and Savings Potential in Army Buildings

The Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy and Environment) tasked the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to examine plug loads in typical Army buildings. Plug loads (also known as miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)) represent the electricity used by appliances and devices that are plugged in or hardwired and serve functions outside of a building’s core end uses. Common plug loads include computers, printers, copiers, networking devices, refrigerators, and vending machines. They also include personal electronic devices such as televisions, smart phones, tablets, and gaming systems. Examples of hardwired MELs include elevators, air compressors, and fire and security systems. The findings from this study confirm that significant energy is consumed within Army buildings by plug load devices and hardwired MEL equipment. A number of opportunities are identified for reducing unnecessary energy use that could save the Army over $5 million per year when broadly applied. Army regulations clearly spell out expectations for the purchase and operation of information technology equipment (computers, laptops, monitors, printers, and multi-function devices). However, the policies regarding the shutdown or activation of sleep and other lower power modes after 30 minutes of inactivity (15 minutes for monitors) do not appear to be consistently followed. There are many effective approaches and pathways for impacting change as it relates to improving awareness, implementing measures, and adjusting behaviors to identify and reduce plug load energy use. The Army should prioritize and consider deploying all of these to better understand and manage plug load equipment to save energy and enhance resilience across their facilities. Engaging the building occupants who use these devices daily via outreach and education should be a strong component of the strategy. The focus should be on reducing waste without sacrificing productivity or the benefits that many of these devices provide. Continued evaluation of plug loads beyond that performed here is important to gather lessons from additional building and equipment types, and to stay aware of evolving device technology and management options. This will highlight additional needs for policies, best practices, control technologies, and education of personnel to achieve real reductions in energy waste from plug load equipment. It is recommended that this study may serve as the foundation for a broader and sustained focus on plug loads and MELs, towards simultaneously enhancing the productivity, readiness, and resilience of the Army while reducing energy use and demand, and freeing up resources to better support the mission.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

In-Situ Monitoring Assisted Large-Scale Additive Manufacturing of Mild Steel and 316L Alloys for Nuclear Application

The Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) Program is aimed at developing cross-cutting technologies in support of a broad range of nuclear reactor parts, and to maintain U.S. leadership in materials and manufacturing technologies for nuclear energy applications. The overarching vision of the AMMT program is to accelerate the development, qualification, demonstration and deployment of advanced materials and manufacturing technologies to enable reliable and economical nuclear energy. One of its three goals is to target big challenges and game-changing technologies, to realize the mission and vision of AMMT program. Based on this context, this multi-year work package focuses on understanding the current state of large-scale additive manufacturing (AM) technology for the deposition of 316L stainless steel materials for final components and mild steel for use in nuclear manufacturing processes. The targeted AM modality is directed energy deposition (DED), capable of fabricating components on the size scale of meters including valves, pumps, impellers. etc. that are challenging or difficult to source, especially when developing new systems or replacing obsolete components. Accordingly, the current writeup aims at providing a baseline literature survey on structure-property relationships in mild steel and 316L alloys. Also, information on preliminary trials to date involving these two alloys show tremendous potential of printing parts having complex geometry and thin- walled structures, such as nuclear valve and Hot isostatic Press (HIP) can, using wire based (Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing and Hybrid Additive Manufacturing) as well as blown powder DED machines. All of this is aimed towards (i) demonstrating the ability to fabricate large components for pressure boundary applications relevant to the nuclear community and nuclear manufacturing technology, and (ii) understanding the effect of different manufacturing technology on AM can production and post HIPed material for nuclear applications. Another target of this writeup is to compile various in-situ monitoring tools that have been incorporated for different DED AM modalities, in order to understand process variability during the entire fabrication process. This can be correlated with processing-structure-property response surfaces and would add confidence around process quality verification and ultimately component certification for nuclear applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of an All-Aqueous Thermally Regenerative Redox Flow Battery to Support Fossil Fuel Assets

Low-temperature thermal energy, a largely untapped resource, holds significant promise for large-scale electrical power generation globally. Various stationary sources, including industrial entities and thermal power plants, emit considerable low-temperature heat that currently remains unutilized. This energy is often overlooked because its low temperature renders it unsuitable for efficient power generation using conventional methods. However, current research is exploring diverse technologies capable of converting low-temperature heat into grid-scale power, aiming to enhance grid efficiency, further decarbonization initiatives, and facilitate a shift toward more decentralized power systems. One such innovative technology is the thermally regenerative battery (TRB), noted for its high power and energy densities compared to similar technologies, positioning it as a potential game-changer in power generation. TRBs integrate two scalable and well-established unit operations: a redox flow battery and a distillation column. This integration suggests that once an effective TRB chemistry is established, the pathway to commercialization could be expedited. The copper-based thermally regenerative ammonia battery (Cu aq -TRAB) stands out as the first TRB that circumvents electrodeposition/dissolution reactions, stabilizing Cu(I) and Cu(II) within the electrolyte and maintaining stability of all electroactive species in an aqueous phase. This stabilization has led to improvements in coulombic efficiency, open circuit potential, and copper solubility, thereby enhancing power density, energy density, and overall energy efficiency. Preliminary tests were conducted to determine the effects of various electrolyte species on the performance metrics of the battery, both theoretically and experimentally. These tests revealed that the solubility of copper in the Cu aq -TRAB electrolyte was constrained by the Cu(I)-NH 3 complex. Adjusting the background electrolyte to 5 M NH4Br and the ligand concentration to 4 M NH 3 enabled the copper concentration to reach a maximum of 0.6 M. This modification led to an estimated theoretical maximum energy density of 9.5 Wh L -1 for the Cu aq -TRAB. Additionally, full cell testing indicated a tradeoff between peak power and energy density with varying copper and ammonia concentrations. Increasing the applied current density during discharge linearly raised the average power output, with a minimal reduction in energy density due to a balance between higher ohmic overpotential and reduced time for undesirable ammonia crossover. Furthermore, a comprehensive numerical sensitivity analysis of the complete Cu aq -TRAB system was performed. This analysis aimed to assess how the battery and the distillation column responded to changes in system input parameters, providing insights into optimal research directions for enhancing system performance. The analysis revealed that at room temperature, battery power was significantly more sensitive to ohmic losses than to mass transfer, with reaction rates having minimal impact. This trend continued even at higher temperatures. Also, the thermal energy required for ammonia separation was studied, showing that increased temperatures generally reduced energy requirements, except in low-pressure scenarios above 65 °C. An investigation into membrane performance in the Cu aq -TRAB was undertaken, given the significant impact of ammonia transport control and ohmic losses on system performance. Various membranes were evaluated to identify key performance metrics. Among the tested membranes, Selemion CMVN exhibited the highest performance, with a peak power density of 84 mW cm -2 and average values of 26 ± 6.8 mW cm -2 for power density and 2.9 Wh L -1 for energy density at an applied current density of 50 mA cm -2 . An economic assessment indicated a levelized cost of storage at $410 per MWh under optimal conditions, highlighting the commercial potential of the Cu aq -TRAB when utilizing cost-effective, readily available materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

3-D Printed Electro-Magnetic Objects for THz Communications

Advanced materials and manufacturing techniques will pave the path towards high quality electro-magnetic circuits that operate up through THz and into optics regime. Digital additive manufacturing (AM) techniques offer game-changing potential for large scale manufacturing of Radio-frequency (RF) circuits and system in custom 2D/3D geometries. The technical collaboration will explore the design flexibility and product customization capabilities of additive manufacturing techniques to process magnetic materials in custom 3D geometries with tailored dielectric properties and frequency response characteristics. Transformation of an RF circuit design idea into a 3D printed system using additive manufacturing techniques will bring together the elements of advanced materials, additive integration, and low-cost manufacturing for future advanced wireless communication systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Perspectives on Potential Advanced Construction Technologies for Nuclear Energy

Advanced reactor technologies have attracted considerable financial support, catalyzing innovation in the nuclear energy landscape. These next generation reactors are designed with enhanced passive safety systems and the potential for cost reductions. As these advanced reactors approach technological maturity, their commercial success also requires focused examination and essential support. Economic assessments in the nuclear energy sector often emphasize construction costs and the risk of scheduling delays as primary contributors to deployment expenditures. Traditionally, vital elements of nuclear energy deployment including civil/structural engineering, design sophistication and automation have been either undervalued or postponed in the development cycles. Additionally, the nuclear industry’s collective experience in nuclear project execution has diminished over the past several decades due to the infrequency of new plant constructions. Hence, the National Reactor Innovation Center’s (NRIC) Advanced Construction Technology Initiative (ACTI) aims to reduce cost overruns and schedule slippages that have plagued the construction of nuclear power plant projects. With this initiative, NRIC is facilitating the development of advanced nuclear plant construction technologies and approaches through partnerships that would provide game-changing benefits to the construction of advanced nuclear power plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗