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At least 631 records · Page 35

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Charting Multidisciplinary Team External Dynamics Using a Systems Thinking Approach

Using the formalism provided by the Systems Thinking approach, the dynamics present when operating multidisciplinary teams are examined in the context of the NASA Langley Research and Technology Group, an R&D organization organized along functional lines. The paper focuses on external dynamics and examines how an organization creates and nurtures the teams and how it disseminates and retains the lessons and expertise created by the multidisciplinary activities. Key variables are selected and the causal relationships between the variables are identified. Five "stories" are told, each of which touches on a different aspect of the dynamics. The Systems Thinking Approach provides recommendations as to interventions that will facilitate the introduction of multidisciplinary teams and that therefore will increase the likelihood of performing successful multidisciplinary developments. These interventions can be carried out either by individual researchers, line management or program management.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois↗

The high resoultion dynamics limb sounder (HIRDLS): An instrument for the study of global change

Two groups, in the Unites States and the United Kingdom, proposed to further develop and use infrared limb scanning instruments in atmospheric studies from Earth Observing System (EOS). Subsequent review showed that the scientific objectives and basic measurement approaches were very similar, although there were differences in the proposed instrumentation. Their teams agreed to merge the two investigations into the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). Under the resulting understanding, the two teams have combined, and will produce a single design to satisfy the scientific requirements of their investigations. The characteristics of limb scanning and earlier experiments are reviewed. The HIRDLS scientific objectives and requirements on the derived geophysical quantities are presented, and the way in which they drive the design of HIRDLS is indicated. A brief description of the HIRDLS instrument and a summary of HIRDLS capabilities follow.

Gille, J. C.↗

Accidental Kähler moduli inflation

We study a model of accidental inflation in type IIB string theory where inflation occurs near the inflection point of a small Kähler modulus. A racetrack structure helps to alleviate the known concern that string-loop corrections may spoil Kähler Moduli Inflation unless having a significant suppression via the string coupling or a special brane setup. Also, the hierarchy of gauge group ranks required for the separation between moduli stabilization and inflationary dynamics is relaxed. The relaxation becomes more significant when we use the recently proposed D-term generated racetrack model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The Sariçiçek Howardite Fall in Turkey: Source Crater of HED Meteorites on Vesta and Impact Risk of Vestoids

The Sariçiçek howardite meteorite shower consisting of 343 documented stones occurred on September 2, 2015 in Turkey and is the first documented howardite fall. Cosmogenic isotopes show that Sariçiçek experienced a complex cosmic‐ray exposure history, exposed during ~12–14 Ma in a regolith near the surface of a parent asteroid, and that an ~1 m sized meteoroid was launched by an impact 22 ± 2 Ma ago to Earth (as did one‐third of all HED meteorites). SIMS dating of zircon and baddeleyite yielded 4550.4 ± 2.5 Ma and 4553 ± 8.8 Ma crystallization ages for the basaltic magma clasts. The apatite U‐Pb age of 4525 ± 17 Ma, K‐Ar age of ~3.9 Ga, and the U,Th‐He ages of 1.8 ± 0.7 and 2.6 ± 0.3 Ga are interpreted to represent thermal metamorphic and impact‐related resetting ages, respectively. Petrographic; geochemical; and O‐, Cr‐, and Ti‐isotopic studies confirm that Sariçiçek belongs to the normal clan of HED meteorites. Petrographic observations and analysis of organic material indicate a small portion of carbonaceous chondrite material in the Sariçiçek regolith and organic contamination of the meteorite after a few days on soil. Video observations of the fall show an atmospheric entry at 17.3 ± 0.8 km/s from NW; fragmentations at 37, 33, 31, and 27 km altitude; and provide a pre‐atmospheric orbit that is the first dynamical link between the normal HED meteorite clan and the inner Main Belt. Spectral data indicate the similarity of Sariçiçek with the Vesta asteroid family (V‐class) spectra, a group of asteroids stretching to delivery resonances, which includes (4) Vesta. Dynamical modeling of meteoroid delivery to Earth shows that the complete disruption of a ~1 km sized Vesta family asteroid or a ~10 km sized impact crater on Vesta is required to provide sufficient meteoroids ≤4 m in size to account for the influx of meteorites from this HED clan. The 16.7 km diameter Antionia impact crater on Vesta was formed on terrain of the same age as given by the 4He retention age of Sariçiçek. Lunar scaling for crater production to crater counts of its ejecta blanketshow it was formed ~22 Ma ago.

Unsalan, Ozan↗

Microbial abundances and carbon use under ambient temperature or experimental warming in a southern boreal peatland

Abstract Organic peat soils occupy relatively little of the global land surface area but store vast amounts of soil carbon in northern latitudes where climate is warming at a rapid pace. Warming may result in strong positive feedbacks of carbon loss and global climate change driven by microbial processes if warming alters the balance between primary productivity and decomposition. To elucidate effects of warming on the microbial communities mediating peat carbon dynamics, we explored the abundance of broad microbial groups and their source of carbon (i.e. old carbon versus more recently fixed photosynthate) using microbial lipid analysis (δ 13 C PLFA) of peat samples under ambient temperatures and before/after initiation of experimental peat warming (+ 2.25, + 4.5, + 6.75, and + 9 °C). This analysis occurred over a profile to 2 m depth in an undrained, ombrotrophic peat bog in northern Minnesota. We found that the total microbial biomass and individual indicator lipid abundances were stratified by depth and strongly correlated to temperature under ambient conditions. However, under experimental warming, statistically significant effects of temperature on the microbial community were sporadic and inconsistent. For example, 3 months after experimental warming the relative abundance of Gram-negative bacterial indicators across depth combined and > 50 cm depth and Gram-positive bacterial indicators at 20–50 cm depth showed significant positive relationships to temperature. At that same timepoint, however, the relative abundance of Actinobacterial indicators across depth showed a significant negative relationship to temperature. After 10 months of experimental warming, the relative abundance of fungal biomarkers was positively related to temperature in all depths combined, and the absolute abundance of anaerobic bacteria declined with increasing temperature in the 20–50 cm depth interval. The lack of observed response in the broader microbial community may suggest that at least initially, microbial community structure with peat depth in these peatlands is driven more by bulk density and soil water content than temperature. Alternatively, the lack of broad microbial community response may simply represent a lag period, with more change to come in the future. The long-term trajectory of microbial response to warming in this ecosystem then could either be direct, after this initial lag time, or indirect through other physical or biogeochemical changes in the peat profile. These initial results provide an important baseline against which to measure long-term microbial community and carbon-cycling responses to warming and elevated CO 2 .

Felice, Mark↗

Observation of Fundamental Mechanisms in Compression-Induced Phase Transformations Using Ultrafast X-ray Diffraction

As theoretically hypothesized for several decades in group IV transition metals, we have discovered a dynamically stabilized body-centered cubic (bcc) intermediate state in Zr under uniaxial loading at sub-nanosecond timescales. Under ultrafast shock wave compression, rather than the transformation from α-Zr to the more disordered hex-3 equilibrium ω-Zr phase, in its place we find the formation of a previously unobserved nonequilibrium bcc metastable intermediate. We probe the compression-induced phase transition pathway in zirconium using time-resolved sub-picosecond x-ray diffraction analysis at the Linac Coherent Light Source. We also present molecular dynamics simulations using a potential derived from first-principles methods which independently predict this intermediate phase under ultrafast shock conditions. In contrast with experiments on longer timescale (> 10 ns) where the phase diagram alone is an adequate predictor of the crystalline structure of a material, our recent study highlights the importance of metastability and time dependence in the kinetics of phase transformations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The neutron number probability distribution in coupled lumped assemblies

Here, the validity of the gamma distribution in describing the neutron number probability distribution function for both isolated and coupled multiplying assemblies when constrained to reproduce the true mean and variance is investigated in lumped geometry by numerical comparison with kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and variance are obtained from numerical solution of moment equations constructed from the relevant forward Master equation with assembly coupling coefficients obtained from a view factor method. Numerical results for a two-group, two coupled assemblies model, with static and dynamic reactivity insertion, show that except for subcritical assemblies, the gamma distribution well-approximates the number distribution. Differences in the fast and thermal neutron population shapes are explained in terms of effective source strengths due to downscatter and coupling.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Suppressing Auger Recombination in Multiply Excited Colloidal Silicon Nanocrystals with Ligand-Induced Hole Traps

Nonradiative Auger recombination in multiply excited nanocrystals is a dominant efficiency loss pathway for nanocrystal-containing optoelectronic devices that rely on high-rate emission and absorption operating conditions. Overcoming Auger recombination in these quantum-confined systems is therefore a longstanding challenge to the synthetic nanocrystal as well as device manufacturing communities. Several successful strategies have been realized to reduce Auger recombination, but they rely on complex and time-consuming nanocrystal core/shell synthesis. Alternatively, controlling Auger rates by varying the nanocrystal–ligand-binding chemistry is a promising route to obtain functional tunability, which reduces the barrier to large-scale manufacturing. The covalent surface chemistry and the extremely long-lived photoexcited lifetimes of silicon nanocrystals (Si NCs) make them a unique system among colloidal semiconductor NCs to study the intersection between surface chemistry and photoexcited carrier dynamics. Here, we show that changing the functional group that binds a saturated dodecyl ligand to the surface of nonthermal plasma-synthesized Si NCs from alkyl to thiolate slows Auger recombination rates within multiply excited Si NCs. This reduction in Auger rate persists across Si NC sizes ranging from 3.5 to 8 nm in diameter, but the expected linear dependence of Auger rates on the NC volume is retained for both alkyl and alkylthiolate surface terminations. To understand the origin behind this elongation, we carry out steady-state and time-resolved photoluminescence measurements as well as time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy measurements. These measurements reveal that thiolate groups introduce mid-gap surface states, which, we argue, reduces the photoexcited electron–hole overlap and elongates Auger recombination times. These results highlight how a typically detrimental chemical species—mid-band gap NC surface states—can be beneficial under high-rate absorption/emission conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Bimolecular Reaction Dynamics in the Phenyl–Silane System: Exploring the Prototype of a Radical Substitution Mechanism

We present a combined experimental and theoretical investigation of the bimolecular gas-phase reaction of the phenyl radical (C 6 H 5 ) with silane (SiH 4 ) under single collision conditions to investigate the chemical dynamics of forming phenylsilane (C 6 H 5 SiH 3 ) via a bimolecular radical substitution mechanism at a tetracoordinated silicon atom. Verified by electronic structure and quasiclassical trajectory calculations, the replacement of a single carbon atom in methane by silicon lowers the barrier to substitution, thus defying conventional wisdom that tetracoordinated hydrides undergo preferentially hydrogen abstraction. This reaction mechanism provides fundamental insights into the hitherto unexplored gas-phase chemical dynamics of radical substitution reactions of mononuclear main group hydrides under single collision conditions and highlights the distinct reactivity of silicon compared to its isovalent carbon. This mechanism might be also involved in the synthesis of cyanosilane (SiH 3 CN) and methylsilane (CH 3 SiH 3 ) probed in the circumstellar envelope of the carbon star IRC+10216.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ionic Conductivity in Polyelectrolyte Hydrogels

Transport of ionic species in heterogeneous polymeric media is highly dependent on the charge distributions and interactions between mobile and immobile groups. Here we perform coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations to study the ion dynamics in swollen polyelectrolyte gels under external electric fields. A nonlinear response of the ionic conductivity to an applied electric field, for field strengths that are comparable to the ionic coupling strength, is observed. This behavior correlates to a broadening of the ionic distribution around the polymer backbone under an increasing electric field. Also, we find that the weak-field ionic mobility in gels increases with density, which is opposite to the behavior of simple electrolytes. This relates to the mean coupling between charges that decreases in gels, but increases in simple electrolytes, with increasing density. These results provide more insights into the electric response of polyelectrolyte gels to support the development of applications that combine electric and mechanical properties of polyelectrolyte gels for energy storage, sensing, selective transport, and signal transfer.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tropical lacustrine sediment microbial community response to an extreme El Niño event

Salinity can influence microbial communities and related functional groups in lacustrine sediments, but few studies have examined temporal variability in salinity and associated changes in lacustrine microbial communities and functional groups. To better understand how microbial communities and functional groups respond to salinity, we examined geochemistry and functional gene amplicon sequence data collected from 13 lakes located in Kiritimati, Republic of Kiribati (2° N, 157° W) in July 2014 and June 2019, dates which bracket the very large El Niño event of 2015–2016 and a period of extremely high precipitation rates. Lake water salinity values in 2019 were significantly reduced and covaried with ecological distances between microbial samples. Specifically, phylum- and family-level results indicate that more halophilic microorganisms occurred in 2014 samples, whereas more mesohaline, marine, or halotolerant microorganisms were detected in 2019 samples. Functional Annotation of Prokaryotic Taxa (FAPROTAX) and functional gene results (nifH, nrfA, aprA) suggest that salinity influences the relative abundance of key functional groups (chemoheterotrophs, phototrophs, nitrogen fixers, denitrifiers, sulfate reducers), as well as the microbial diversity within functional groups. Accordingly, we conclude that microbial community and functional gene groups in the lacustrine sediments of Kiritimati show dynamic changes and adaptations to the fluctuations in salinity driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Customizable Metric to Provide a Comprehensive Picture of the Mobility Potential of a Location

Accessibility in a geo-spatial context refers to the ease of reaching a variety of opportunities from a given location. Accessibility theories (and resulting metrics) have traditionally focused on quantifying access to specific opportunities (such as jobs), or focused on specific modes (such as car, bike, etc.). Such approaches often fall short of providing a comprehensive picture of the true accessibility potential of a location as a combination of multiple modes to multiple types of destinations. Addressing this drawback, a novel metric labeled the ‘Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) Metric’ was developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to quantify the mobility potential of a location to connect people to goods, services, and employment using a variety of modes, while accounting for time, energy, and affordability. The MEP metric has been integrated with advance travel behavior models to compute the changes in mobility potential for various future scenarios, such as introduction of automated vehicles, and/or electric vehicles—but does so at the aggregate, or average-citizen level. The MEP in its initial iteration is not customized to the particular socio-economic contingents, or even to an individual whose modal availability or pattern of trip making may substantially differ from the average. Addressing this gap, this research effort extends the MEP framework from a static state to a more tailored and dynamic state, one in which an individual, or group can customize the metric for their unique characteristics, such as modes, activity patterns, and time-of-day preferences. The extended MEP metric framework can now be integrated to assess the customized mobility energy productivity of an individual.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Post Fukushima tsunami simulations for Malaysian coasts

The recent recurrences of mega tsunamis in the Asian region have rekindled concern regarding potential tsunamis that could inflict severe damage to affected coastal facilities and communities. The 11 March 2011 Fukushima tsunami that crippled nuclear power plants in Northern Japan has further raised the level of caution. The recent discovery of petroleum reserves in the coastal water surrounding Malaysia further ignites the concern regarding tsunami hazards to petroleum facilities located along affected coasts. Working in a group, federal government agencies seek to understand the dynamics of tsunami and their impacts under the coordination of the Malaysian National Centre for Tsunami Research, Malaysian Meteorological Department. Knowledge regarding the generation, propagation and runup of tsunami would provide the scientific basis to address safety issues. An in-house tsunami simulation models known as TUNA has been developed by the authors to assess tsunami hazards along affected beaches so that mitigation measures could be put in place. Capacity building on tsunami simulation plays a critical role in the development of tsunami resilience. This paper aims to first provide a simple introduction to tsunami simulation towards the achievement of tsunami simulation capacity building. The paper will also present several scenarios of tsunami dangers along affected Malaysia coastal regions via TUNA simulations to highlight tsunami threats. The choice of tsunami generation parameters reflects the concern following the Fukushima tsunami.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SN-detection in LAr-TPC and the quest for (ν-Ar) cross sections

Neutrino-nucleus cross sections are of relevance to supernova astrophysics. These cross-sections can be grouped into three categories, those that affect supernova dynamics, supernova nucleosynthesis, and terrestrial supernova neutrino detection, each of which would benefit from experimental study. In this report only the relevance of an accurate knowledge of neutrino-target nucleus cross sections for SN detection will be discussed, in particular for the case of Argon, the active target material of LAr-TPC detectors currently under construction or proposed for future very massive underground experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Modern quantum chemistry with [Open]Molcas

MOLCAS/OpenMolcas is an ab initio electronic structure program providing a large set of computational methods from Hartree–Fock and density functional theory to various implementations of multiconfigurational theory. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the main features of the code, specifically reviewing the use of the code in previously reported chemical applications as well as more recent applications including the calculation of magnetic properties from optimized density matrix renormalization group wave functions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗