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NASA NTRS2008

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Future NTP Development Synergy Leveraged from Current J-2X Engine Development

This paper is a discussion of how the many long-lead development elements required for the realization of a future nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) system can be effectively leveraged from the ongoing work being conducted on the J-2X engine program for the Constellation Program. Development studies conducted to date for NTP forward planning have identified a number of technical areas that will require advancement to acceptable technology readiness levels (TRLs) before they can be utilized in NTP system development. These include high-temperature, high-area ratio nozzle extension; long-life, low-NPSP. turbomachinery; and low-boiloff propellant management; and a qualified nuclear fuel element. The current J-2X program is working many of these areas that can be leveraged to support NTP development in a highly compatible and synergistic fashion. In addition to supporting technical development, there are other programmatic issues being worked in the J-2X program that can be leveraged by a future NTP development program. These include compliance with recently-evolved space system requirements such as human-rating, fault tolerance and fracture control. These and other similar mandatory system requirements have been adopted by NASA and can result in a significant technical impact beyond elevation of the root technologies required by NTP. Finally, the exploitation of experience, methodologies, and procedures developed by the J-2X program in the areas of verification, qualification, certification, altitude simulation testing, and facility definition will be especially applicable to a future NTP system. The similarities in system mission (in-space propulsion) and operational environment (vacuum, zero-gee) between J-2X and NTP make this highly synergistic. Thus, it can be $hown that the collective benefit of leveraging experience and technologies developed during the J-2X program can result in significant savings in development cost and schedule for NTP.

Ballard, Richard O.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Concluding Remarks: The Current Status and Future Prospects for GRB Astronomy

We are in a remarkable period of discovery in GRB astronomy. The current satellites including Swift, Fermi. AGILE and INTEGRAL are detecting and observing bursts of all varieties. Increasing capabilities for follow-up observations on the ground and in space are leading to rapid and deep coverage across the electromagnetic spectrum, The future will see continued operation of the current experiments and with future missions like SVOM plus possible rni_Ssions like JANUS and EXIST. An exciting expansion of capabilities is occurring in areas of gravitational waves and neutrinos that could open new windows on the GRB phenomenon. Increased IR capabilities on the ground and with missions like JWST will enable further exploration of high redshift bursts. The future is bright.

Gehrels, Neil↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Parametric Study on Using Active Debris Removal to Stabilize the Future LEO Debris Environment

Recent analyses of the instability of the orbital debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 have reignited the interest in using active debris removal (ADR) to remediate the environment. There are; however, monumental technical, resources, operational, legal, and political challenges in making economically viable ADR a reality. Before a consensus on the need for ADR can be reached, a careful analysis of the effectiveness of ADR must be conducted. The goal is to demonstrate the feasibility of using ADR to preserve the future environment and to guide its implementation to maximize the benefit-cost ratio. This paper describes a comprehensive sensitivity study on using ADR to stabilize the future LEO debris environment. The NASA long-term, orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of many key parameters. These parameters include (1) the starting epoch of ADR implementation, (2) various target selection criteria, (3) the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers, (4) the consequence of targeting specific inclination or altitude regimes, (5) the consequence of targeting specific classes of vehicles, and (6) the timescale of removal. Additional analyses on the importance of postmission disposal and how future launches might affect the requirements to stabilize the environment are also included.

Liou, J.C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

EDOS Evolution to Support NASA Future Earth Sciences Missions

This paper presents a ground system architecture to service future NASA decadal missions and in particular, the high rate science data downlinks, by evolving EDOS current infrastructure and upgrading high rate network lines. The paper will also cover EDOS participation to date in formulation and operations concepts for the respective missions to understand the particular mission needs and derived requirements such as data volumes, downlink rates, data encoding, and data latencies. Future decadal requirements such as onboard data recorder management and file protocols drive the need to emulate these requirements within the ground system. The EDOS open system modular architecture is scalable to accommodate additional missions using the current sites antennas and future sites as well and meet the data security requirements and fulfill mission's objectives

Cordier, Guy R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

FeatherSail - Design, Development and Future Impact

To the present day, the idea of using solar sails for space propulsion is still just a concept, but one that provides a great potential for future space exploration missions. Several notable solar propulsion missions and experiments have been performed and more are still in the development stage. Solar Sailing is a method of space flight propulsion, which utilizes the light photons to propel spacecrafts through the vacuum of space. This concept will be tested in the near future with the launch of the NanoSail-D satellite. NanoSail-D is a nano-class satellite, <10kg, which will deploy a thin lightweight sheet of reflective material used to propel the satellite in its low earth orbit. Using the features of the NanoSail-D architecture, a second-generation solar sail design concept, dubbed FeatherSail, has been developed. The goal of the FeatherSail project is to create a sail vehicle with the ability to provide steering from the sails and increase the areal density. The FeatherSail design will utilize the NanoSail-D based extendable boom technology with only one sail on each set of booms. This design also allows each of the four sails to feather as much as ninety degrees. The FeatherSail concept uses deployable solar arrays to generate the power necessary for deep space missions. In addition, recent developments in low power, low temperature Silicon-Germanium electronics provide the capability for long duration deep space missions. It is envisioned that the FeatherSail conceptual design will provide the impetus for future sail vehicles, which may someday visit distant places that mankind has only observed.

Alhorn, Dean C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Share the Sky: Concepts and Technologies That Will Shape Future Airspace Use

The airspace challenge for the United States is to protect national sovereignty and ensure the safety and security of those on the ground and in the air, while at the same time ensuring the efficiency of flight, reducing the costs involved, protecting the environment, and protecting the freedom of access to the airspace. Many visions of the future NAS hold a relatively near-term perspective, focusing on existing uses of the airspace and assuming that new uses will make up a small fraction of total use. In the longer term, the skies will be filled with diverse and amazing new air vehicles filling our societal needs. Anticipated new vehicles include autonomous air vehicles acting both independently and in coordinated groups, unpiloted cargo carriers, and large numbers of personal air vehicles and small-scale point-to-point transports. These vehicles will enable new capabilities that have the potential to increase societal mobility, transport freight at lower cost and with lower environmental impact, improve the study of the Earth s atmosphere and ecosystem, and increase societal safety and security by improving or drastically lowering the cost of critical services such as firefighting, emergency medical evacuation, search and rescue, border and neighborhood surveillance, and the inspection of our infrastructure. To ensure that uses of the airspace can continue to grow for the benefit of all, a new paradigm for operations is needed: equitably and safely sharing the airspace. This paper is an examination of such a vision, concentrating on the operations of all types of air vehicles and future uses of the National Airspace. Attributes of a long-term future airspace system are provided, emerging operations technologies are described, and initial steps in research and development are recommended.

Ballin, Mark G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Instrument Pointing Capabilities: Past, Present, and Future

This paper surveys the instrument pointing capabilities of past, present and future space telescopes and interferometers. As an important aspect of this survey, we present a taxonomy for "apples-to-apples" comparisons of pointing performances. First, pointing errors are defined relative to either an inertial frame or a celestial target. Pointing error can then be further sub-divided into DC, that is, steady state, and AC components. We refer to the magnitude of the DC error relative to the inertial frame as absolute pointing accuracy, and we refer to the magnitude of the DC error relative to a celestial target as relative pointing accuracy. The magnitude of the AC error is referred to as pointing stability. While an AC/DC partition is not new, we leverage previous work by some of the authors to quantitatively clarify and compare varying definitions of jitter and time window averages. With this taxonomy and for sixteen past, present, and future missions, pointing accuracies and stabilities, both required and achieved, are presented. In addition, we describe the attitude control technologies used to and, for future missions, planned to achieve these pointing performances.

celestial targets↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Role of Cis-Lunar Space in Future Global Space Exploration

Cis-lunar space offers affordable near-term opportunities to help pave the way for future global human exploration of deep space, acting as a bridge between present missions and future deep space missions. While missions in cis-lunar space have value unto themselves, they can also play an important role in enabling and reducing risk for future human missions to the Moon, Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs), Mars, and other deep space destinations. The Cis-Lunar Destination Team of NASA's Human Spaceflight Architecture Team (HAT) has been analyzing cis-lunar destination activities and developing notional missions (or "destination Design Reference Missions" [DRMs]) for cis-lunar locations to inform roadmap and architecture development, transportation and destination elements definition, operations, and strategic knowledge gaps. The cis-lunar domain is defined as that area of deep space under the gravitational influence of the earth-moon system. This includes a set of earth-centered orbital locations in low earth orbit (LEO), geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO), highly elliptical and high earth orbits (HEO), earth-moon libration or "Lagrange" points (E-ML1 through E-ML5, and in particular, E-ML1 and E-ML2), and low lunar orbit (LLO). To help explore this large possibility space, we developed a set of high level cis-lunar mission concepts in the form of a large mission tree, defined primarily by mission duration, pre-deployment, type of mission, and location. The mission tree has provided an overall analytical context and has helped in developing more detailed design reference missions that are then intended to inform capabilities, operations, and architectures. With the mission tree as context, we will describe two destination DRMs to LEO and GEO, based on present human space exploration architectural considerations, as well as our recent work on defining mission activities that could be conducted with an EML1 or EML2 facility, the latter of which will be an emphasis of this paper, motivated in part by recent interest expressed at the Global Exploration Roadmap Stakeholder meeting. This paper will also explore the links between this HAT Cis-Lunar Destination Team analysis and the recently released ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap and other potential international considerations, such as preventing harmful interference to radio astronomy observations in the shielded zone of the moon.

Bobskill, Marianne R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The International Reference Ionosphere Today and in the Future

The international reference ionosphere (IRI) is the internationally recognized and recommended standard for the specification of plasma parameters in Earth's ionosphere. It describes monthly averages of electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, ion composition, and several additional parameters in the altitude range from 60 to 1,500 km. A joint working group of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) is in charge of developing and improving the IRI model. As requested by COSPAR and URSI, IRI is an empirical model being based on most of the available and reliable data sources for the ionospheric plasma. The paper describes the latest version of the model and reviews efforts towards future improvements, including the development of new global models for the F2 peak density and height, and a new approach to describe the electron density in the topside and plasmasphere. Our emphasis will be on the electron density because it is the IRI parameter most relevant to geodetic techniques and studies. Annual IRI meetings are the main venue for the discussion of IRI activities, future improvements, and additions to the model. A new special IRI task force activity is focusing on the development of a real-time IRI (RT-IRI) by combining data assimilation techniques with the IRI model. A first RT-IRI task force meeting was held in 2009 in Colorado Springs. We will review the outcome of this meeting and the plans for the future. The IRI homepage is at http://www.IRI.gsfc.nasa.gov

Bilitza, Dieter↗
NASA NTRS2012

Future Gamma-Ray Imaging of Solar Eruptive Events

Solar eruptive events, the combination of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), accelerate ions to tens of Gev and electrons to hundreds of MeV. The energy in accelerated particles can be a significant fraction (up to tens of percent) of the released energy and is roughly equipartitioned between ions and electrons. Observations of the gamma-ray signatures produced by these particles interacting with the ambient solar atmosphere probes the distribution and composition of the accelerated population, as well as the atmospheric parameters and abundances of the atmosphere, ultimately revealing information about the underlying physics. Gamma-ray imaging provided by RHESSI showed that the interacting approx.20 MeV/nucleon ions are confined to flare magnetic loops rather than precipitating from a large CME-associated shock. Furthermore, RHESSI images show a surprising, significant spatial separation between the locations where accelerated ions and electrons are interacting, thus indicating a difference in acceleration or transport processes for the two types of particles. Future gamma-ray imaging observations, with higher sensitivity and greater angular resolution, can investigate more deeply the nature of ion acceleration. The technologies being proven on the Gamma-Ray Imager/Polarimeter for Solar flares (GRIPS), a NASA balloon instrument, are possible approaches for future instrumentation. We discuss the GRIPS instrument and the future of studying this aspect of solar eruptive events.

Shih, Albert↗
NASA NTRS2012

Current Usage and Future Prospects of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery in Support of NWS Forecast Offices and National Centers

Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low-Earth orbits. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channel s available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT-9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic-scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Similarly, researchers at NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA have developed air mass discrimination capabilities using channels available from the current GOES Sounders. Other applications of multispectral composites include combinations of high and low frequency, horizontal and vertically polarized passive microwave brightness temperatures to discriminate tropical cyclone structures and other synoptic-scale features. Many of these capabilities have been transitioned for evaluation and operational use at NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers through collaborations with SPoRT and CIRA. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES-R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites). At the same time, new image manipulation and display capabilities are available within AWIPS II, the next generation of the NWS forecaster decision support system. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and articulate an integrated and collaborative path forward with Raytheon AWIPS II development staff for integrating current and future capabilities that support new satellite instrumentation and the AWIPS II decision support system.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

High Resolution Visualization Applied to Future Heavy Airlift Concept Development and Evaluation

This paper explores the use of high resolution 3D visualization tools for exploring the feasibility and advantages of future military cargo airlift concepts and evaluating compatibility with existing and future payload requirements. Realistic 3D graphic representations of future airlifters are immersed in rich, supporting environments to demonstrate concepts of operations to key personnel for evaluation, feedback, and development of critical joint support. Accurate concept visualizations are reviewed by commanders, platform developers, loadmasters, soldiers, scientists, engineers, and key principal decision makers at various stages of development. The insight gained through the review of these physically and operationally realistic visualizations is essential to refining design concepts to meet competing requirements in a fiscally conservative defense finance environment. In addition, highly accurate 3D geometric models of existing and evolving large military vehicles are loaded into existing and proposed aircraft cargo bays. In this virtual aircraft test-loading environment, materiel developers, engineers, managers, and soldiers can realistically evaluate the compatibility of current and next-generation airlifters with proposed cargo.

FordCook, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Viability of 3 D Woven Carbon Cloth and Advanced Carbon-Carbon Ribs for Adaptive Deployable Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT) for Future NASA Missions

This paper describes aerothermodynamic and thermal structural testing that demonstrate the viability of three dimensional woven carbon cloth and advanced carbon-carbon (ACC) ribs for use in the Adaptive Deployable Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT). ADEPT is an umbrella-like entry system that is folded for stowage in the launch vehicle's shroud and deployed prior to reaching the atmeopheric interface. A key feature of the ADEPT concept is a lower ballistic coefficient for delivery of a given payload than seen with conventional, rigid body entry systems. The benefits that accrue from the lower ballistic coefficient incllude factor-of-ten reductions of deceleration forces and entry heating. The former enables consideration of new classes of scientific instruments for solar system exploration while the latter enables the design of a more efficient thermal protection system. The carbon cloth base lined for ADEPT has a dual use in that it serves as the thermal protection system and as the "skin" that transfers aerdynamic deceleration loads to its umbrella-like substructure. Arcjet testing described in this paper was conducted for some of the higher heating conditions for a future Venus mission using the ADEPT concept, thereby showing that the carbon cloth can perform in a relevant entry environment. Recently completed the thermal structural testing of the cloth attached to a representative ACC rib design is also described. Finally, this paper describes a preliminary engineering level code, based on the arcjet data, that can be used to estimate cloth thickness for future ADEPT missions and to predict carbon cloth performance in future arcjet tests.

ADEPT↗
NASA NTRS2013

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Antarctic Regions↗
NASA NTRS2013

Interactive Ozone and Methane Chemistry in GISS-E2 Historical and Future Climate Simulations

The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the model captures much of the largescale spatial structure seen in recent observations. While the model is much improved compared with the previous chemistry-climate model, especially for ozone seasonality in the stratosphere, there is still slightly too rapid stratospheric circulation, too little stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the Southern Hemisphere and an Antarctic ozone hole that is too large and persists too long. Quantitative metrics of spatial and temporal correlations with satellite datasets as well as spatial autocorrelation to examine transport and mixing are presented to document improvements in model skill and provide a benchmark for future evaluations. The difference in radiative forcing (RF) calculated using modeled tropospheric ozone versus tropospheric ozone observed by TES is only 0.016W/sq. m. Historical 20th Century simulations show a steady increase in whole atmosphere ozone RF through 1970 after which there is a decrease through 2000 due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone forcing increases throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 owing to a projected recovery of stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in methane, but decreases under RCP4.5 and 2.6 due to reductions in emissions of other ozone precursors. RF from methane is 0.05 to 0.18W/ sq. m higher in our model calculations than in the RCP RF estimates. The surface temperature response to ozone through 1970 follows the increase in forcing due to tropospheric ozone. After that time, surface temperatures decrease as ozone RF declines due to stratospheric depletion. The stratospheric ozone depletion also induces substantial changes in surface winds and the Southern Ocean circulation, which may play a role in a slightly stronger response per unit forcing during later decades. Tropical precipitation shifts south during boreal summer from 1850 to 1970, but then shifts northward from 1970 to 2000, following upper tropospheric temperature gradients more strongly than those at the surface.

Ozone↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Present Day and Future OH and Methane Lifetime in the ACCMIP Simulations

Results from simulations performed for the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) are analysed to examine how OH and methane lifetime may change from present day to the future, under different climate and emissions scenarios. Present day (2000) mean tropospheric chemical lifetime derived from the ACCMIP multi-model mean is 9.8+/-1.6 yr (9.3+/-0.9 yr when only including selected models), lower than a recent observationally-based estimate, but with a similar range to previous multi-model estimates. Future model projections are based on the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and the results also exhibit a large range. Decreases in global methane lifetime of 4.5 +/- 9.1% are simulated for the scenario with lowest radiative forcing by 2100 (RCP 2.6), while increases of 8.5+/-10.4% are simulated for the scenario with highest radiative forcing (RCP 8.5). In this scenario, the key driver of the evolution of OH and methane lifetime is methane itself, since its concentration more than doubles by 2100 and it consumes much of the OH that exists in the troposphere. Stratospheric ozone recovery, which drives tropospheric OH decreases through photolysis modifications, also plays a partial role. In the other scenarios, where methane changes are less drastic, the interplay between various competing drivers leads to smaller and more diverse OH and methane lifetime responses, which are difficult to attribute. For all scenarios, regional OH changes are even more variable, with the most robust feature being the large decreases over the remote oceans in RCP8.5. Through a regression analysis, we suggest that differences in emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds and in the simulation of photolysis rates may be the main factors causing the differences in simulated present day OH and methane lifetime. Diversity in predicted changes between present day and future OH was found to be associated more strongly with differences in modelled temperature and stratospheric ozone changes. Finally, through perturbation experiments we calculated an OH feedback factor (F) of 1.24 from present day conditions (1.50 from 2100 RCP8.5 conditions) and a climate feedback on methane lifetime of 0.33+-0.13 yr/K, on average. Models that did not include interactive stratospheric ozone effects on photolysis showed a stronger sensitivity to climate, as they did not account for negative effects of climate-driven stratospheric ozone recovery on tropospheric OH, which would have partly offset the overall OH/methane lifetime response to climate change.

atmospheric composition↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

stratosphere↗