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At least 631 records · Page 35

Assessment of a reconfiguration of the InterSpread Plus US national FMD model as a potential tool to analyze a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak on a single large cattle feedlot in the United States

An incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the United States remains a concern of high importance and would have devastating socioeconomic impacts to the livestock and associated industries. This highly transmissible and infectious disease poses continual risk for introduction into the United States (US), due to the legal and illegal global movement of people, animals, and animal products. While stamping out has been shown to effectively control FMD, depopulation of large cattle feedlots (>50,000 head) presents a number of challenges for responders due to the resources required to depopulate and dispose of large numbers of animals in a timely and effective manner. However, evaluating alternative strategies for FMD control on large feedlots requires a detailed within-farm modeling approach, which can account for the unique structure of these operations. To address this, we developed a single feedlot, within-farm spread model using a novel configuration within the InterSpread Plus (ISP) framework. As proof of concept we designed six scenarios: (i) depopulation - the complete depopulation of the feedlot, (ii) burn-through – a managed “burn-through” where the virus is allowed to spread through the feedlot and only movement restriction and biosecurity are implemented, (iii) firebreak-NV – targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens without vaccination; (iv) firebreak - targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens with vaccination of remaining pens; (v) harvest-NV - selective harvest of pens where a 100% movement restriction is applied for 28-30 days, then pens are set for selection to be sent to slaughter, while allowing a controlled “burn-through” without vaccination; and (vi) harvest - selective harvest of pens with vaccination. Overall, the burn-through scenario (ii) had the shortest epidemic duration (31d (30, 33)) median (25th, 75th percentiles), while the firebreak scenario (iv) had the longest (47d (38,55)). Additionally, we found that scenarios implementing depopulation delayed the peak day of infection and reduced the total number of pens infected compared to non-depopulation scenarios.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A First Investigation of Agriculture Sector Perspectives on the Opportunities and Barriers for Agrivoltaics

Agrivoltaic systems are a strategic and innovative approach to combine solar photovoltaic (PV)-based renewable energy generation with agricultural production. Recognizing the fundamental importance of farmer adoption in the successful diffusion of the agrivoltaic innovation, this study investigates agriculture sector experts’ perceptions on the opportunities and barriers to dual land-use systems. Using in-depth, semistructured interviews, this study conducts a first study to identify challenges to farmer adoption of agrivoltaics and address them by responding to societal concerns. Results indicate that participants see potential benefits for themselves in combined solar and agriculture technology. The identified barriers to adoption of agrivoltaics, however, include: (i) desired certainty of long-term land productivity, (ii) market potential, (iii) just compensation and (iv) a need for predesigned system flexibility to accommodate different scales, types of operations, and changing farming practices. The identified concerns in this study can be used to refine the technology to increase adoption among farmers and to translate the potential of agrivoltaics to address the competition for land between solar PV and agriculture into changes in solar siting, farming practice, and land-use decision-making.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analysis of the Aeroelastic Dynamics of Lightweight Flexible Variations of the SNL-NRT Turbine

Current trends show that wind turbines are growing in size to meet a rising demand for renewable energy generation, and their upscaled rotors have inherently become more flexible to maintain a proportionally lighter design. This is because larger rotors must be less massive relative to their diameter to minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which means that blades that are notably less stiff are produced as a result. These structural changes to blades are often reflected in their compromised aeroelastic stability and amplified deformation during operation, which has the potential to decrease the blade’s expected lifetime and the performance of the machine overall. Variations in blade flexibility are also known to influence vortex-wake structures downstream of the turbine, causing patterns of velocity deficit to evolve in ways that affect the performance of other turbines in the farm. This research explores how the increased flexibility of modern utility-scale wind turbine blades influences rotor aeroelastic behavior and interactions with farm flow. High-fidelity simulations of Sandia National Laboratories’ (SNL) National Rotor Testbed (NRT) wind turbine are presented. Flexible variations of the NRT baseline blade are simulated in a variety of realistic operational conditions typically expected at the SNL’s SWiFT facility in Lubbock, Texas. Solutions are then compared to investigate how specific changes to the structural properties of the NRT baseline blade’s design and construction can influence its aeroelastic response at the rotor and the evolution of the turbine’s wake.

Farrell, Alayna (ORCID:000000023555720X)↗

Mitigation of Acute Hydrogen Sulfide and Ammonia Emissions from Swine Manure during Three-Hour Agitation Using Pelletized Biochar

The risk of inhalation exposure to elevated concentrations of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and ammonia (NH3) during the agitation of stored swine manure is high. Once or twice a year, farmers agitate manure before pump-out and application to fields. Agitation of the swine manure causes the short-term releases of highly toxic levels of H2S and NH3. In our previous pilot-scale studies, the biochar powder showed significant mitigation of H2S and NH3 emissions when it was surficially applied to manure immediately before agitation. However, fine biochar powder application poses hazards by itself and may not be practical to apply on a farm scale, especially when livestock and workers are present. We hypothesized that applying pelletized biochar to manure surfaces is just as effective as applying powder to protect farmers and animals from excessive exposure to H2S and NH3. This work reports on the lab-scale proof-of-the-concept trials with biochar pellets on the lab scale. The objective was to compare the biochar pellets and biochar powder on their effectiveness of mitigation on H2S and NH3 gases during 3-h-long swine manure agitation. Three scenarios were compared in (n = 3) trials: (i) control, (ii) 12.5 mm thick surficial application to manure surface of biochar powder, and (iii) an equivalent (by mass) dose of pelletized biochar applied to the manure surface. The biochar powder was bound with 35% (wt) water into ~5 × 10 mm (dia × length) pellets. The biochar powder was significantly (p < 0.05) more effective than the biochar pellets. Still, pellets reduced total H2S and NH3 emissions by ~72% and ~68%, respectively (p = 0.001), compared with ~99% by powder (p = 0.001). The maximum H2S and NH3 concentrations were reduced from 48.1 ± 4.8 ppm and 1810 ± 850 ppm to 20.8 ± 2.95 ppm and 775 ± 182 ppm by pellets, and to 22.1 ± 16.9 ppm and 40.3 ± 57 ppm by powder, respectively. These reductions are equivalent to reducing the maximum concentrations of H2S and NH3 during the 3-h manure agitation by 57% and 57% (pellets) and 54% and 98% (powder), respectively. Treated manure properties hinted at improved nitrogen retention, yet they were not significant due to high variability. We recommend scaling up and trials on the farm-scale level using biochar pellets to assess the feasibility of application to large manure surfaces and techno-economic evaluation.

Chen, Baitong (ORCID:0000000266071253)↗

Optimal N Application Rates on Switchgrass for Producers and a Biorefinery

This study analyzes the effects of N fertilizer application rates on profitability of growing switchgrass and using the feedstock in a pyrolysis biorefinery facility to create a source of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply in Tennessee. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial bunchgrass native to North America with traits suitable for biofuel and co-product production. Previous chemical analysis has shown that ash content in switchgrass is related to the amount of nitrogen applied to the field, while at the biorefinery level, the percentage ash content reduces the biorefinery fuel output. To obtain optimal nitrogen (N) application rates for the switchgrass producers and the biorefinery, a two-part analysis is employed. First, a partial budgeting profitability analysis is conducted for this cropping enterprise at the farm-gate level without considering downstream implications of biomass quality, i.e., ash content. Second, the effects of higher ash content as a percentage of the feedstock on biorefinery output are analyzed. Results show farm-gate profit is maximized when N fertilizer is applied at 111 kg/ha, while as a result of increased production levels and decreased percentage ash content, biorefinery profit is maximized when N is applied at 157 kg/ha. Lower ash could lead to premium prices paid to switchgrass producers if higher quality feedstock were to be demanded as part of an integrated biofuel industry.

Robertson, Keven Alan↗

Fluid-Dynamic Mechanisms Underlying Wind Turbine Wake Control with Strouhal-Timed Actuation

A reduction in wake effects in large wind farms through wake-aware control has considerable potential to improve farm efficiency. This work examines the success of several emerging, empirically derived control methods that modify wind turbine wakes (i.e., the pulse method, helix method, and related methods) based on Strouhal numbers on the O(0.3). Drawing on previous work in the literature for jet and bluff-body flows, the analyses leverage the normal-mode representation of wake instabilities to characterize the large-scale wake meandering observed in actuated wakes. Idealized large-eddy simulations (LES) using an actuator-line representation of the turbine blades indicate that the n=0 and ±1 modes, which correspond to the pulse and helix forcing strategies, respectively, have faster initial growth rates than higher-order modes, suggesting these lower-order modes are more appropriate for wake control. Exciting these lower-order modes with periodic pitching of the blades produces increased modal growth, higher entrainment into the wake, and faster wake recovery. Modal energy gain and the entrainment rate both increase with streamwise distance from the rotor until the intermediate wake. This suggests that the wake meandering dynamics, which share close ties with the relatively well-characterized meandering dynamics in jet and bluff-body flows, are an essential component of the success of wind turbine wake control methods. A spatial linear stability analysis is also performed on the wake flows and yields insights on the modal evolution. In the context of the normal-mode representation of wake instabilities, these findings represent the first literature examining the characteristics of the wake meandering stemming from intentional Strouhal-timed wake actuation, and they help guide the ongoing work to understand the fluid-dynamic origins of the success of the pulse, helix, and related methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling Assessment of Tidal Energy Extraction in the Western Passage

Numerical models have been widely used for the resource characterization and assessment of tidal instream energy. The accurate assessment of tidal stream energy resources at a feasibility or project-design scale requires detailed hydrodynamic model simulations or high-quality field measurements. This study applied a three-dimensional finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM) to simulate the tidal hydrodynamics in the Passamaquoddy–Cobscook Bay archipelago, with a focus on the Western Passage, to assist tidal energy resource assessment. IEC Technical specifications were considered in the model configurations and simulations. The model was calibrated and validated with field measurements. Energy fluxes and power densities along selected cross sections were calculated to evaluate the feasibility of the tidal energy development at several hotspots that feature strong currents. When taking both the high current speed and water depth into account, the model results showed that the Western Passage has great potential for the deployment of tidal energy farms. The maximum extractable power in the Western Passage was estimated using the Garrett and Cummins method. Different criteria and methods recommended by the IEC for resource characterization were evaluated and discussed using a sensitivity analysis of energy extraction for a hypothetical tidal turbine farm in the Western Passage.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

One Health Assessment of Bacillus anthracis Incidence and Detection in Anthrax-Endemic Areas of Pakistan

Anthrax, a severe zoonotic disease, is infrequently reported in anthrax-endemic regions of Pakistan. Despite clinical reports indicating its presence, particularly cutaneous anthrax, there is insufficient laboratory evidence regarding disease occurrence and environmental persistence. The present study aimed to confirm Bacillus anthracis presence, accountable for animal mortality and human infection, while exploring environmental transmission factors. Between March 2019 and July 2021, a total of 19 outbreaks were documented. Of these, 11 affected sheep/goats in Zhob district and 8 affected cattle/sheep in Bajour Agency. Clinical signs suggestive of Bacillus anthracis outbreak were observed in 11 animals. Blood and swab samples were collected for confirmation. The study followed a One Health approach, analyzing animal, environmental (soil/plant), and human samples. Of the 19 outbreaks, 11 were confirmed positive for anthrax based on growth characteristics, colony morphology, and PCR. Soil and plant root samples from the outbreak areas were collected and analyzed microscopically and molecularly. Cutaneous anthrax was observed in six humans, and swab samples were taken from the lesions. Human serum samples (n = 156) were tested for IgG antibodies against PA toxin and quantitative analysis of anthrax toxin receptor 1 (ANTXR1). Bacillus anthracis was detected in 65 out of 570 (11.40%) soil samples and 19 out of 190 (10%) plant root samples from the outbreak areas. Four out of six human samples from cutaneous anthrax lesions tested positive for Bacillus anthracis. Human anthrax seroprevalence was found to be 11% and 9% in two districts, with the highest rates among butchers and meat consumers. The highest ANTXR1 levels were observed in butchers, followed by meat consumers, farm employees, meat vendors, veterinarians, and farm owners. These findings highlight the persistence of anthrax in the region and emphasize the potential public health risks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tropical Red Macroalgae Cultivation with a Focus on Compositional Analysis

To create carbon efficient sources of bioenergy feedstocks and feedstuff for aquaculture and terrestrial livestock, it is critical to develop and commercialize the most efficient seaweed cultivation approach with a sustainable nutrient input supply. Here, we present data for a novel, onshore tropical macroalgae cultivation system, based on influent deep seawater as the nutrient and carbon sources. Two red algal species were selected, Agardhiella subulata and Halymenia hawaiiana, as the basis for growth optimization. Highest productivity in small-scale cultivation was demonstrated with A. subulata in the 10% deep seawater (64.7 µg N L−1) treatment, growing at up to 26% specific growth rate day−1 with highest yields observed at 247.5 g m−2 day−1 fresh weight. The highest yields for H. hawaiiana were measured with the addition of 10% deep seawater up to 8.8% specific growth rate day−1 and yields at 63.3 g fresh weight m−2 day−1 equivalent. Biomass should be culled weekly or biweekly to avoid density limitations, which likely contributed to a decrease in SGR over time. With a measured 30–40% carbon content of the ash-free dry weight (20–30% of the dry weight) biomass, this translates to an almost 1:1 CO2 capture to biomass ratio. The compositional fingerprint of the high carbohydrate content of both Agardhiella and Halymenia makes for an attractive feedstock for downstream biorefinery applications. By focusing on scaling and optimizing seaweed farming technologies for large-scale onshore farms, the opportunities for yield potential, adaptability to cultivation conditions, and meeting global sustainability goals through novel, carbon-negative biomass sources such as seaweed can be realized.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Enabling Renewable Energy While Protecting Wildlife: An Ecological Risk-Based Approach to Wind Energy Development Using Ecosystem-Based Management Values

Acceptance of wind energy development is challenged by stakeholders’ concerns about potential effects on the environment, specifically on wildlife, such as birds, bats, and (for offshore wind) marine animals, and the habitats that support them. Communities near wind energy developments are also concerned with social and economic impacts, as well as impacts on aesthetics, historical sites, and recreation and tourism. Lack of a systematic, widely accepted, and balanced approach for measuring the potential damage to wildlife, habitats, and communities continues to leave wind developers, regulators, and other stakeholders in an uncertain position. This paper explores ecological risk-based management (RBM) in wind energy development for land-based and offshore wind installations. This paper provides a framework for the adaptation of ecosystem-based management to wind energy development and examines that framework through a series of case studies and best management practices for applying risk-based principles to wind energy. Ten case studies indicate that wind farm monitoring is often driven by regulatory requirements that may not be underpinned by scientific questions. While each case applies principles of adaptive management, there is room for improvement in applying scientific principles to the data collection and analysis. Challenges and constraints for wind farm development to meet RBM framework criteria include collecting sufficient baseline and monitoring data year-round, engaging stakeholder facilitators, and bringing together large and diverse scientific teams. The RBM framework approach may provide insights for improved siting and consenting/permitting processes for regulators and their advisors, particularly in those nations where wind energy is still in the early development stages on land or at sea.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Airborne flux measurements of ammonia over the southern Great Plains using chemical ionization mass spectrometry

Abstract. Ammonia (NH3) is an abundant trace gas in the atmosphere and an important player in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol formation and the atmosphere–surface exchange of nitrogen. The accurate determination of NH3 emission rates remains a challenge, partly due to the propensity of NH3 to interact with instrument surfaces, leading to high detection limits and slow response times. In this paper, we present a new method for quantifying ambient NH3, using chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) with deuterated benzene cations as reagents. The setup aimed at limiting sample–surface interactions and achieved a 1σ precision of 10–20 pptv and an immediate 1/e response rate of < 0.4 s, which compares favorably to the existing state of the art. The sensitivity exhibited an inverse humidity dependence, in particular in relatively dry conditions. Background of up to 10 % of the total signal required consideration as well, as it responded on the order of a few minutes. To showcase the method's capabilities, we quantified NH3 mixing ratios from measurements obtained during deployment on a Gulfstream I aircraft during the HI-SCALE (Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems) field campaign in rural Oklahoma during May 2016. Typical mixing ratios were 1–10 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) for the boundary layer and 0.1–1 ppbv in the lower free troposphere. Sharp plumes of up to tens of ppbv of NH3 were encountered as well. We identified two of their sources as a large fertilizer plant and a cattle farm, and our mixing ratio measurements yielded upper bounds of 350 ± 50 and 0.6 kg NH3 h−1 for their respective momentary source rates. The fast response of the CIMS also allowed us to derive vertical NH3 fluxes within the turbulent boundary layer via eddy covariance, for which we chiefly used the continuous wavelet transform technique. As expected for a region dominated by agriculture, we observed predominantly upward fluxes, implying net NH3 emissions from the surface. The corresponding analysis focused on the most suitable flight, which contained two straight-and-level legs at ∼ 300 m above ground. We derived NH3 fluxes between 1 and 11 mol km−2 h−1 for these legs, at an effective spatial resolution of 1–2 km. The analysis demonstrated how flux measurements benefit from suitably arranged flight tracks with sufficiently long straight-and-level legs, and it explores the detrimental effect of measurement discontinuities. Following flux footprint estimations, comparison to the NH3 area emissions inventory provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicated overall agreement but also the absence of some sources, for instance the identified cattle farm. Our study concludes that high-precision CIMS measurements are a powerful tool for in situ measurements of ambient NH3 mixing ratios, and even allow for the airborne mapping of the air–surface exchange of NH3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward on-demand measurements of greenhouse gas emissions using an uncrewed aircraft AirCore system

This paper evaluates the performance of a multirotor uncrewed aircraft and AirCore system (UAAS) for measuring vertical profiles of wind velocity (speed and direction) and the mole fractions of methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and it presents a use case that combines UAAS measurements and dispersion modeling to quantify CH 4 emissions from a dairy farm. To evaluate the atmospheric sensing performance of the UAAS, four field deployments were performed at three locations in the San Joaquin Valley of California where CH 4 hotspots were observed downwind of dairy farms. A comparison of the observations collected on board the UAAS and an 11 m meteorological tower show that the UAAS can measure wind velocity trends with a root mean squared error varying between 0.4 and 1.1 m s -1 when the wind magnitude is less than 3.5 m s -1 . Findings from UAAS flight deployments and a calibration experiment also show that the UAAS can reliably resolve temporal variations in the mole fractions of CH 4 and CO 2 occurring over periods of 10 s or longer. Results from the UAAS and dispersion modeling use case further demonstrate that UAASs have great potential as low-cost tools for detecting and quantifying CH 4 emissions in near real time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spectral proper orthogonal decomposition of active wake mixing dynamics in a stable atmospheric boundary layer

Recent advancements in the use of active wake mixing (AWM) to reduce wake effects on downstream turbines open new avenues for increasing power generation in wind farms. However, a better understanding of the fluid dynamics underlying AWM is still needed to make wake mixing a reliable strategy for wind farm flow control. In this work, a spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD) is used to analyze the dynamics of coherent flow structures that are induced in the wake through blade pitch actuation. The data are generated using the ExaWind software suite to perform large eddy simulations of an NREL 2.8 MW turbine operating in a stable atmospheric boundary layer. SPOD tracks the modal behavior of flow structures from their generation in the turbine induction field through their growth in the near-wake region and to their subsequent evolution and energy transfers in the far wake. SPOD is shown to be a useful tool in the context of AWM because it translates the wavenumber and frequency inputs to the turbine controller to structures in the wake. A decomposition of the radial shear stress flux in the wake is also developed using SPOD to measure the contribution of coherent flow structures to mean flow turbulent entrainment and wake recovery. The effectiveness of AWM is connected to its ability to excite inherent structures in the wake of the turbine that arise using baseline controls. The effects of AWM on blade loading are also analyzed by connecting the axial force along the blade to the SPOD analysis of the turbine induction field. Lastly, the performance of different AWM strategies is demonstrated in a two-turbine array.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Characterization of HRRR-simulated rotor layer wind speeds and clouds along the coast of California

Stratocumulus clouds, with their low cloud base and top, affect the atmospheric boundary layer wind and turbulence profile, thereby modulating wind energy resources. GOES satellite data reveal an abundance of stratocumulus clouds in the late spring and summer months off the coast of northern and central California, where there are active plans to deploy floating offshore wind farms at two lease areas (near Morro Bay and Humboldt). Since the fall of 2020, two buoys equipped with multiple instruments, including Doppler lidar, have been deployed for about 1 year in these wind farm lease areas to assess the rotor layer wind conditions in these locations. The objective of this study is to evaluate how well the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model represents stratocumulus cloud characteristics and turbine-relevant rotor layer winds (surface to 300 m) by comparing HRRR simulations with buoy and satellite observations. We first find that the HRRR model reproduces the seasonal cycle of cloud top height reasonably well in these regions. However, during the warm season – especially at Morro Bay – the HRRR-simulated stratocumulus clouds tend to have lower tops by about 150 m and exhibit weaker diurnal cycles than satellite observations. Our analysis also shows that rotor layer wind speeds and vertical shear are stronger at Humboldt than at Morro Bay, and both are generally stronger under clear-sky conditions. Finally, the HRRR model bias in rotor layer wind speed is small under cloudy conditions but larger and dependent on observed wind speed under clear skies. Specifically, HRRR underestimates wind speeds at Morro Bay and overestimates them at Humboldt under clear-sky conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The importance of round-robin validation when assessing machine-learning-based vertical extrapolation of wind speeds

The extrapolation of wind speeds measured at a meteorological mast to wind turbine rotor heights is a key component in a bankable wind farm energy assessment and a significant source of uncertainty. Industry-standard methods for extrapolation include the power-law and logarithmic profiles. The emergence of machine-learning applications in wind energy has led to several studies demonstrating substantial improvements in vertical extrapolation accuracy in machine-learning methods over these conventional power-law and logarithmic profile methods. In all cases, these studies assess relative model performance at a measurement site where, critically, the machine-learning algorithm requires knowledge of the rotor-height wind speeds in order to train the model. This prior knowledge provides fundamental advantages to the site-specific machine-learning model over the power-law and log profiles, which, by contrast, are not highly tuned to rotor-height measurements but rather can generalize to any site. Furthermore, there is no practical benefit in applying a machine-learning model at a site where winds at the heights relevant for wind energy production are known; rather, its performance at nearby locations (i.e., across a wind farm site) without rotor-height measurements is of most practical interest. To more fairly and practically compare machine-learning-based extrapolation to standard approaches, we implemented a round-robin extrapolation model comparison, in which a random-forest machine-learning model is trained and evaluated at different sites and then compared against the power-law and logarithmic profiles. We consider 20 months of lidar and sonic anemometer data collected at four sites between 50 and 100 km apart in the central United States. We find that the random forest outperforms the standard extrapolation approaches, especially when incorporating surface measurements as inputs to include the influence of atmospheric stability. When compared at a single site (the traditional comparison approach), the machine-learning improvement in mean absolute error was 28 % and 23 % over the power-law and logarithmic profiles, respectively. Using the round-robin approach proposed here, this improvement drops to 20 % and 14 %, respectively. These latter values better represent practical model performance, and we conclude that round-robin validation should be the standard for machine-learning-based wind speed extrapolation methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

FLOW Estimation and Rose Superposition (FLOWERS): an integral approach to engineering wake models

Abstract. Annual energy production (AEP) is often the objective function in wind plant layout optimization studies. The conventional method to compute AEP for a wind farm is to first evaluate power production for each discrete wind direction and speed using either computational fluid dynamics simulations or engineering wake models. The AEP is then calculated by weighted-averaging (based on the wind rose at the wind farm site) the power produced across all wind directions and speeds. We propose a novel formulation for time-averaged wake velocity that incorporates an analytical integral of a wake deficit model across every wind direction. This approach computes the average flow field more efficiently, and layout optimization is an obvious application to exploit this benefit. The clear advantage of this new approach is that the layout optimization produces solutions with comparable AEP performance yet is completed 2 orders of magnitude faster. The analytical integral and the use of a Fourier expansion to express the wind speed and wind direction frequency create a relatively smooth solution space for the gradient-based optimizer to excel in comparison to the existing weighted-averaging power calculation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Measurement-driven large-eddy simulations of a diurnal cycle during a wake-steering field campaign

Abstract. High-fidelity flow modeling with data assimilation enables accurate representation of the wind farm operating environment under realistic, nonstationary atmospheric conditions. Capturing the temporal evolution of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer is critical to understanding the behavior of wind turbines under operating conditions with simultaneously varying inflow and control inputs. This paper has three parts: the identification of a case study during a field evaluation of wake steering; the development of a tailored mesoscale-to-microscale coupling strategy that resolved local flow conditions within a large-eddy simulation (LES), using observations that did not completely capture the wind and temperature fields throughout the simulation domain; and the application of this coupling strategy to validate high-fidelity aeroelastic predictions of turbine performance and wake interactions with and without wake steering. The case study spans 4.5 h after midnight local time, during which wake steering was toggled on and off five times, achieving yaw offset angles ranging from 0 to 17°. To resolve nonstationary nighttime conditions that exhibited shear instabilities, the turbulence field was evolved starting from the diurnal cycle of the previous day. These background conditions were then used to drive wind farm simulations with two different models: an LES with actuator disk turbines and a steady-state engineering wake model. Subsequent analysis identified two representative periods during which the up- and downstream turbines were most nearly aligned with the mean wind direction and had observed yaw offsets of 0 and 15°. Both periods corresponded to partial waking on the downstream turbine, which had errors in the LES-predicted power of 4 % and 6 %, with and without wake steering. The LES was also able to capture conditions during which an upstream turbine wake induced a speedup at a downstream turbine and increased power production by up to 13 %.

17 WIND ENERGY↗