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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning–Based Detection of Weather Fronts and Associated Extreme Precipitation in Historical and Future Climates

Extreme precipitation events, including those associated with weather fronts, have wide-ranging impacts across the world. Here we use a deep learning algorithm to identify weather fronts in high resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS), and evaluate the results using observational and reanalysis products. We further compare results between CESM simulations using present-day and future climate forcing, to study how these features might change with climate change. We find that detected front frequencies in CESM have seasonally varying spatial patterns and responses to climate change and are found to be associated with modeled changes in large scale circulation such as the jet stream. We also associate the detected fronts with precipitation and find that total and extreme frontal precipitation mostly decreases with climate change, with some seasonal and regional differences. Here, decreases in Northern Hemisphere summer frontal precipitation are largely driven by changes in the frequency of different front types, especially cold and stationary fronts. On the other hand, Northern Hemisphere winter exhibits some regional increases in frontal precipitation that are largely driven by changes in frontal precipitation intensity. While CONUS mean and extreme precipitation generally increase during all seasons in these climate change simulations, the likelihood of frontal extreme precipitation decreases, demonstrating that extreme precipitation has seasonally varying sources and mechanisms that will continue to evolve with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

ROBIN (RuciO/BIgData Express/SENSE) A Next-Generation High-Performance Data Service Platform

Increasingly, scientific research discoverydepends on the analysis of extremely large amounts of data. Thisdata is gathered through very large scientific instruments, verylarge numbers of small devices, and mid-scale instruments.These devices generate exponentially increasing volumes of data.Such data is often obtained, analyzed, stored, visualized, andtransferred at and among sites world-wide by largecollaborations of science communities. Managing and movingextremely large volumes of data across today’s networks is aspecial multidimensional challenge. Also, existing datamanagement and movement services and tools often areinadequate to address all specific requirements. This paperdescribes the various components of this challenge and howthose issues can be addressed by ROBIN, a uniquecomprehensive set of integrated services designed specificallyfor managing and moving extremely large amounts of data overlong distances, e.g., thousands of miles around the globe. Thispaper also describes the results of initial experiments using thatset of integrated services.

Wu, Wenji↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Topography in Controlling Evapotranspiration Age

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) age is a key metric of water sustainability but a major unknown partly due to the extreme difficulty in modeling it. Groundwater is found to be important in ET age variations in small‐scale studies, yet our understanding is insufficient because groundwater systems are nested across scales. Here, we conducted GPU‐accelerated particle tracking with integrated hydrologic modeling to quantify the variations in ET age at a regional scale of ∼0.4 M km 2 . Simulation results reveal topography‐driven flow paths shaping the spatial and temporal patterns of ET age variations. On ridges, where root zone decoupling with deep subsurface storage, ET age is generally young, with seasonal variations dominated by meteorological conditions. In the valley bottom, ET age is generally old, with significant subseasonal variations caused by the convergence of subsurface flow paths. On hillslopes with water table depths ranging from 1 to 10 m, ET age shows strong seasonal variations caused by the connections with lateral groundwater regulated by ET demand. Our modeling approach provides insights into the basic linkages between ET age and topography at large scale. Our work highlights the perspective of multiscale studies of ET age, suggesting new field experiments to test these process connections and to determine if such linkages warrant inclusion in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The rate of extreme coronal line emitting galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and their relation to tidal disruption events

High-ionization iron coronal lines (CLs) are a rare phenomenon observed in galaxy and quasi-stellar object spectra that are thought to be created by high-energy emission from active galactic nuclei and certain types of transients. In cases known as extreme coronal line emitting galaxies (ECLEs), these CLs are strong and fade away on a time-scale of years. The most likely progenitors of these variable CLs are tidal disruption events (TDEs), which produce sufficient high-energy emission to create and sustain the CLs over these time-scales. To test the possible connection between ECLEs and TDEs, we present the most complete variable ECLE rate calculation to date and compare the results to TDE rates from the literature. To achieve this, we search for ECLEs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). We detect sufficiently strong CLs in 16 galaxies, more than doubling the number previously found in SDSS. Using follow-up spectra from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer mid-infrared observations, and Liverpool Telescope optical photometry, we find that none of the nine new ECLEs evolve in a manner consistent with that of the five previously discovered variable ECLEs. Using this sample of five variable ECLEs, we calculate the galaxy-normalized rate of variable ECLEs in SDSS to be $R_\mathrm{G}=3.6~^{+2.6}_{-1.8}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+5.1}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-6}~\mathrm{galaxy}^{-1}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. The mass-normalized rate is $R_\mathrm{M}=3.1~^{+2.3}_{-1.5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+4.4}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-17}~\mathrm{M_\odot ^{-1}}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$ and the volumetric rate is $R_\mathrm{V}=7~^{+20}_{-5}~(\mathrm{statistical})~^{+10}_{-0.0}~(\mathrm{systematic})\times 10^{-9}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}~\mathrm{yr}^{-1}$. Our rates are one to two orders of magnitude lower than TDE rates from the literature, which suggests that only 10–40 per cent of all TDEs produce variable ECLEs. Additional uncertainties in the rates arising from the structure of the interstellar medium have yet to be included.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

All-optical single-shot complete electric field measurement of extreme ultraviolet free electron laser pulses

Recent advances in ultrafast extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and x-ray light sources provide direct access to fundamental time and length scales for biology, chemistry, and materials physics. However, such light pulses are challenging to measure due to the need for femtosecond time resolution at difficult-to-detect wavelengths. Also, single-shot measurements are needed because severe pulse-to-pulse fluctuations are common. Here we demonstrate single-shot, complete field measurements by applying a novel version of frequency resolved optical gating. An EUV free electron laser beam creates a transient grating containing the pulse’s electric field information, which is read out with a 400 nm probe pulse. By varying the time delay between two copies of the EUV pump, rather than between the pump and the probe, we separate the needed coherent wave mixing from the slow incoherent response. Because this approach uses photoionization, it should be applicable from the vacuum ultraviolet to hard x rays.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temperature Dependence of Structural Relaxation in Glass-Forming Liquids and Polymers

Understanding the microscopic mechanism of the transition of glass remains one of the most challenging topics in Condensed Matter Physics. What controls the sharp slowing down of molecular motion upon approaching the glass transition temperature T g , whether there is an underlying thermodynamic transition at some finite temperature below T g , what the role of cooperativity and heterogeneity are, and many other questions continue to be topics of active discussions. This review focuses on the mechanisms that control the steepness of the temperature dependence of structural relaxation (fragility) in glass-forming liquids. We present a brief overview of the basic theoretical models and their experimental tests, analyzing their predictions for fragility and emphasizing the successes and failures of the models. Special attention is focused on the connection of fast dynamics on picosecond time scales to the behavior of structural relaxation on much longer time scales. A separate section discusses the specific case of polymeric glass-forming liquids, which usually have extremely high fragility. We emphasize the apparent difference between the glass transitions in polymers and small molecules. We also discuss the possible role of quantum effects in the glass transition of light molecules and highlight the recent discovery of the unusually low fragility of water. At the end, we formulate the major challenges and questions remaining in this field.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Abstract Research efforts related to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and their hydrological impacts have focused mostly on the continental or regional scales, whereas many coastal management and infrastructure decisions are made at much finer spatial scales. In this context, this study aims to provide local-scale understandings of the climatological characteristics and hydrological impacts of TCs (from 1950 to 2019) over the Mid-Atlantic region defined as the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and Susquehanna River Basin (SRB). The climatological analysis is based on analyzing long-term, spatially distributed observational datasets of hurricane tracks, precipitation, and streamflows. Results suggest that, despite limited contribution of TCs to regional precipitation (<9%), TC is the dominant driver for extreme floods in the southern part of DRB (e.g. tributaries of the Christina River and lower Schuylkill River) and the southwestern portions of SRB (e.g. tributaries of the Lower Susquehanna and Junita River), where TC’s effect on drought alleviation is also comparatively higher. At the basin level, SRB is more susceptible to flooding associated with TCs and prone to drought relative to DRB; however, strong spatial variability of TC’s impact on hydrological extremes is observed within and across the basins. While the TC effect on flood/drought is negligible for the high-elevation, northern part of the region, TC increases the magnitude of the 100 year flood by up to 19.6% in DRB and 53.0% in SRB; the duration of short-term extreme hydrological drought is reduced by TC by up to 25.0% in SRB and 24.7% in DRB, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The hidden structure of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks

We study the large-scale dynamics and prediction of hydrodynamic transport in random fracture networks. The flow and transport behaviour is characterized by first passage times and displacement statistics, which show heavy tails and anomalous dispersion with a strong dependence on the injection condition. The origin of these behaviours is investigated in terms of Lagrangian velocities sampled equidistantly along particle trajectories, unlike classical sampling strategies at a constant rate. The velocity series are analysed by their copula density, the joint distribution of the velocity unit scores, which reveals a simple, albeit hidden, correlation structure that can be described by a Gaussian copula. Based on this insight, we derive a Langevin equation for the evolution of equidistant particle speeds. In this framework, particle motion is quantified by a stochastic time-domain random walk, the joint density of particle position, and speed satisfies a Klein–Kramers equation. The upscaled theory quantifies particle motion in terms of the characteristic fracture length scale and the distribution of Eulerian flow velocities. That is, it is predictive in the sense that it does not require the a priori knowledge of transport attributes. The upscaled model captures non-Fickian transport features, and their dependence on the injection conditions in terms of the velocity point statistics and average fracture length. It shows that the first passage times and displacement moments are dominated by extremes occurring at the first step. The presented approach integrates the interaction of flow and structure into a predictive model for large-scale transport in random fracture networks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid charging made practical in graphite-based lithium batteries: surface-acoustic wave turbulent electrolyte mixing to overcome diffusion limited charging rates [Final Report]

One of the key limits in rapidly recharging a lithium-ion battery is the depletion of lithium ions within the electrolyte adjacent the anode during charging and long diffusion time to overcome this depletion. It also causes dendrite formation, inefficient use of the lithium, and battery degradation over many charge-discharge cycles. Because the liquid electrolyte remains quiescent and unmixed, this depletion layer’s depth rapidly grows to match the anode-cathode separation distance at even modest charge rates. The solution proposed by PI Prof. James Friend and Co-PI Prof. Ping Liu, both from the University of California, San Diego, is to mix the electrolyte and minimize the Li+ ion concentration gradient during charging. Even in the presence of the separator, the charging rate could then be significantly increased. They propose to accomplish this using surface acoustic wave (SAW)-driven acoustic streaming, a technique employing 10-mW fingernail-sized solid-state devices from the telecommunications industry to drive turbulent mixing to submicron length scales in a manner completely compatible with the typical 20700 and 18650 cells used in electric vehicles. 0.1. Turbulent acoustic streaming mixes the electrolyte during charging—even with separator Our proposed 100-MHz SAW device used to recirculate the electrolyte is compatible with lithium- ion battery electrochemistry, as it is made in our lab of single-crystal lithium niobate. Their solution is straightforward to drive from a DC power source alongside the signal provided during battery charging. The device is only needed during charging and does not consume power dur- ing battery discharge. Uniquely, SAW generates extreme accelerations of over 1 billion meters per second squared in the fluid, driving turbulent mixing from centimeter to submicron length scales, even through the porous separator materials that tend to be used in batteries, all while avoiding interfering with the anode’s solid electrolyte interphase layer that forms during use. By employing novel fluid mechanics, the investigators are proposing a new direction for battery research away from direct use of materials science and electrochemistry. The chemistry agnostic solution may be employed in any battery chemistry that makes use of liquid electrolytes, providing a broader transformative benefit to the battery research community. They are to produce a series of prismatic and 20700-cell sized 2 Ah batteries capable of being charged and discharged at least 500 times without more than 20% loss in battery capacity, and to provide analysis tools useful to the battery research and development community for adopting this approach for other battery chemistries and configurations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review of challenges, barriers, and opportunities for large-scale deployment of cool surfaces

Major urban centers are warming due to a combination of global and local phenomena. City governments are increasingly adopting strategies to mitigate the causes and impacts of extreme heat on their populations. Among these strategies are high solar-reflectance (cool) surfaces installed on building roofs and walls. Use of cool surfaces is a cost-effective and simple strategy that replaces conventional darker surfaces with surfaces that have a high reflectance to shortwave (solar) energy. This report reviews the recent history of cool-surface deployment efforts. This includes peer-reviewed literature, conference proceedings, and grey literature to identify challenges and barriers to wide-scale deployment of cool surfaces. We have also researched heat action plans and programs from cities and different codes and standards, as well as available incentive and rebate programs. The review identifies challenges, barriers, and opportunities associated with large-scale deployment of cool surfaces and categorize them broadly as being related to product development & performance or policies & mandates. It provides a foundation upon which we intend to build a roadmap for rapidly accelerating future deployments of cool surfaces. Finally, this roadmap will address identified challenges and incorporate lessons learned from historical efforts to generate a practical and actionable plan.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Small Scale Melter Testing of HLW Algorithm Glasses: Matrix 1 Tests

The principal objectives of the DM100 tests were to determine the effects of glass property extremes (glass viscosity, electrical conductivity, and T1%), minimum and maximum concentrations of several major and minor glass components, +/-15% batching errors in the addition of Glass Forming Chemicals (GFCs) to the feed, and variation in the sources of boron and sodium used in the GFCs on processing rates and melter conditions (off-gas characteristics, glass processing, foaming, cold cap, etc.) at constant bubbling rate.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large Scale Bilevel Optimization for N-K SCOPF Using Adversarial Robustness

Ensuring a secure dispatch against multiple simultaneous outages has long been desired to maintain grid security in the presence of severe events, such as extreme weather phenomena. Traditionally denoted as N-k security constrained optimal power flow (N-k SCOPF), this problem is intractable to solve due to its size being combinatorial in the number of simultaneous outages and due to the non-convex nature of the AC network constraints. This hinders the use of N-k SCOPF for operating realistic-scale systems. In this paper, we introduce a methodology to scalably solve an AC-feasible dispatch that improves security over k simultaneous outages. Our methodology poses N-k SCOPF as a bilevel optimization problem and solves it using an adversarial robustness approach. We develop new efficient methods to solve each level of the bilevel optimization by employing knowledge of the physics of the underlying system. This yields significant improvements in speed and convergence that enable us to address the N-k SCOPF problem at scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by conducting a comprehensive analysis of an N-3 SCOPF for a 500-bus network. Furthermore, we emphasize the ability of our physics-driven techniques to handle larger systems by successfully scaling up to 12,000 buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Logarithmic Corrections to Kerr Thermodynamics

Recent work has shown that loop corrections from massless particles generate $\frac{3}{2}$ ⁢log⁡𝑇 Hawking corrections to black hole entropy which dominate the thermodynamics of cold near-extreme charged black holes. Here we adapt this analysis to near-extreme Kerr black holes. Like AdS 2 ×𝑆 2 , the near-horizon extreme Kerr (NHEK) metric has a family of normalizable zero modes corresponding to reparametrizations of boundary time. The path integral over these zero modes leads to an infrared divergence in the one-loop approximation to the Euclidean NHEK partition function. We regulate this divergence by retaining the leading finite temperature correction in the NHEK scaling limit. This “not-NHEK” geometry lifts the eigenvalues of the zero modes, rendering the path integral infrared finite. The quantum-corrected near-extremal entropy exhibits $\frac{3}{2}$ ⁢log⁡𝑇 Hawking behavior characteristic of the Schwarzian model and predicts a lifting of the ground state degeneracy for the extremal Kerr black hole.

General relativity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pursuing Dark Energy with Large Galaxy Redshift Surveys: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations and Beyond (Final Technical Report)

We have developed and applied methods of large-scale structure from galaxy redshift surveys to the study of dark energy. This program supported my group's development of the baryon acoustic method and our participation in the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. In addition to my leadership role in the DESI collaboration, my group at Harvard focused on several topics addressing key needs of the DESI science program. 1) We continued our design, validation, and documentation of DESI target selection of the luminous red galaxy and emission-line galaxy samples. 2) We applied simulations from our novel and extremely fast N-body code to make DESI catalogs. With these, we will search for possible systematic shifts in the acoustic scale due to clustering bias with an unprecedented volume of simulations. 3) We extended our method for the fast construction of covariance matrices for correlation functions. 4) We developed new large-scale structure methods, including density-field reconstruction and three-point function analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Historical and Future Windstorms in the Northeastern United States

Large-scale windstorms represent an important atmospheric hazard in the Northeastern US (NE) and are associated with substantial socioeconomic losses. Regional simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using lateral boundary conditions from three Earth System Models (ESMs: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and Max Planck Institute (MPI)) are used to quantify possible future changes in windstorm characteristics and/or changes in the parent cyclone types responsible for windstorms. WRF nested within MPI ESM best represents important aspects of historical windstorms and the cyclone types responsible for generating windstorms compared with a reference simulation performed with the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the historical climate. The spatial scale and frequency of the largest windstorms in each simulation defined using the greatest extent of exceedance of local 99.9th percentile wind speeds (U > U999) plus 50-year return period wind speeds (U50,RP) do not exhibit secular trends. Projections of extreme wind speeds and windstorm intensity/frequency/geolocation and dominant parent cyclone type associated with windstorms vary markedly across the simulations. Only the MPI nested simulations indicate statistically significant differences in windstorm spatial scale, frequency and intensity over the NE in the future and historical periods. This model chain, which also exhibits the highest fidelity in the historical climate, yields evidence of future increases in 99.9th percentile 10 m height wind speeds, the frequency of simultaneous U > U999 over a substantial fraction (5–25%) of the NE and the frequency of maximum wind speeds above 22.5 ms−1. These geophysical changes, coupled with a projected doubling of population, leads to a projected tripling of a socioeconomic loss index, and hence risk to human systems, from future windstorms.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗