Distributed rate design: A review of early approaches and practical considerations for value of solar tariffs
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O’Shaughnessy, Eric (ORCID:0000000169280184)↗
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Results for “Energy planning”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Electric vehicle community charging hubs in multi-unit dwellings: Scheduling and techno-economic assessment
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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Life Cycle Assessment of Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower in the United States
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13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets
Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use
Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1–37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from –9% to 40% with consistent south–north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: –2.5% to –2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and –17.1% to –8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems
Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050
Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The impact of policies and business models on income equity in rooftop solar adoption
Low- and moderate-income (LMI) households are less likely to adopt rooftop solar photovoltaics (PVs) than higher-income households in the United States. As the existing literature has shown, this dynamic can decelerate rooftop PV deployment and has potential energy justice implications, in light of the cost-shifting between PV and non-PV households that can occur under typical rate structures and incentive programmes. Here we show that some state policy interventions and business models have expanded PV adoption among LMI households. Additionally, we find evidence that LMI-specific financial incentives, PV leasing and property-assessed financing have increased the diffusion of PV adoption among LMI households in existing markets and have driven more installations into previously underserved low-income communities. By shifting deployment patterns, we posit that these interventions could catalyse peer effects to increase PV adoption in low-income communities even among households that do not directly benefit from the interventions.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Impact of Siting Ordinances on Land Availability for Wind and Solar Development
In the United States, many siting regulations for wind and solar developments are created at the county or township level. Here we survey local zoning ordinances across the contiguous United States to understand the types and frequency of ordinances that might impact wind and solar development. We identify over 1,800 ordinances for wind and more than 800 ordinances for solar in 2022. To understand the impact of ordinances on anticipated land availability, we use spatial modelling on the setbacks specified in the ordinances. Extrapolating the setbacks throughout the country can reduce wind and solar resources by up to 87% and 38%, respectively, depending on the size of the setbacks applied. These results indicate the importance of capturing setback ordinances in resources assessments so as to not overstate resource potential, especially when considering highly decarbonized futures.
county↗
Behaviourally-Informed Peer Referral Programmes can Increase the Reach of Low-Income Energy Policies
Low-income solar adopters are more likely to refer others to a fully subsidized solar programme when referral rewards are combined with an appeal to reciprocity and a simplified referral process, leading to five times as many solar contracts as when referral rewards are used alone. The findings highlight behavioural science strategies that administrators of low-income energy assistance programmes can use to cost-effectively accelerate programme uptake.
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States
An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Community Solar Reaches Adopters Underserved by Rooftop Solar
Community solar, a business model where multiple customers buy output from shared solar systems, has expanded solar access among multifamily housing occupants, renters, and low-income households. Policies to enable community solar could be expanded and benefits of access augmented through targeted measures to support community solar adoption in underserved communities.
community solar↗
Exploiting electricity market dynamics using flexible electrolysis units for retrofitting methanol synthesis
Here we investigate the economic viability of integrating flexible electrolysis units to produce hydrogen in methanol synthesis processes. Specifically, we investigate whether this approach can help reduce methanol production costs by strategically exploiting dynamics of electricity markets. Our study integrates high-fidelity process simulations, optimization tools, and microkinetic modeling (informed by density functional theory) to conduct detailed techno-economic analyses and to compare performance against traditional processes that use hydrogen produced via steam-methane reforming (SMR). We also use this approach to estimate the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) as a function of time-varying electricity prices (from day-ahead and real-time prices) and of key techno-economic parameters. Our results show that the proposed electrification framework is cost-competitive under certain electricity market conditions. Specifically, we find that, when the electrolysis system is operated in flexible mode (and can respond to dynamics of electricity markets), the associated electricity cost nearly collapses to zero. Conversely, when the unit is not flexible (and cannot respond to markets), the electricity cost comprises 60% of the total cost. Our results also reveal that the LCOH of the flexible electrolysis system participating in real-time electricity markets is 31% lower than the LCOH obtained from SMR. Overall, this indicates that exploiting the dynamics of electricity markets can make hydrogen production cost-competitive and this can lead to viable alternatives to electrify methanol production and other hydrogen-based processes.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The levelized cost of exergy: a technoeconomic framework for energy system comparison
While the levelized costs of electricity and heat have been quantified before, these two metrics cannot be directly compared, due to the different exergy content of heat and work. To address this, we develop a levelized cost of exergy (LCOEx) framework that enables direct comparisons between energy sources and processes. We find that moderate- and high-grade heat have an LCOEx that is comparable to electricity (5–10 ¢ per kWh ex ), while low-grade heat sources have much higher LCOEx values (>50 ¢ per kWh ex ). The LCOEx of a system's output is affected by (i) the LCOEx of the system input, (ii) the CAPEX of the system, and (iii) the exergetic efficiency of the system. We use our framework to identify which processes are already achieved with relatively high cost effectiveness (production of fuels, hydrogen, and ammonia) and which have room for improvement (dehumidification, food production).
08 HYDROGEN↗
Scaling Up CSP: How Long Will it Take?
Concentrating solar power (CSP) is one of the few scalable technologies capable of delivering dispatchable renewable power. Therefore, many expect it to shoulder a significant share of system balancing in a renewable electricity future powered by cheap, intermittent PV and wind power: the IEA, for example, projects 73 GW CSP by 2030 and several hundred GW by 2050 in its Net-Zero by 2050 pathway. In this paper, we assess how fast CSP can be expected to scale up and how long time it would take to get new, high-efficiency CSP technologies to market, based on observed trends and historical patterns. We find that to meaningfully contribute to net-zero pathways the CSP sector needs to reach and exceed the maximum historical annual growth rate of 30%/year last seen between 2010-2014 and maintain it for at least two decades. Any CSP deployment in the 2020s will rely mostly on mature existing technologies, namely parabolic trough and molten-salt towers, but likely with adapted business models such as hybrid CSP-PV stations, combining the advantages of higher-cost dispatchable and low-cost intermittent power. New third-generation CSP designs are unlikely to play a role in markets during the 2020s, as they are still at or before the pilot stage and, judging from past pilot-to-market cycles for CSP, they will likely not be ready for market deployment before 2030. CSP can contribute to low-cost zero-emission energy systems by 2050, but to make that happen, at the scale foreseen in current energy models, ambitious technology-specific policy support is necessary, as soon as possible and in several countries.
concentrated solar power↗
Exploring Secondary Markets to Improve Circularity: A Comparative Case Study of Photovoltaics and Hard-Disk Drives
Each year renewable energy generation increases notably with solar panel installations, but these panels have a limited lifespan and will produce between 2 and 4 million metric tons of waste by 2040. Similarly, there are currently between 20 to 70 million hard-disk drives (HDDs) reaching end-of-life (EOL) annually. The circular economy (CE) strives to recycle and reuse materials that are rare and expensive to obtain, minimizing waste. However, studying the potential circularity of photovoltaics (PV) and HDDs requires various data, for instance, on the maturity of the secondhand markets. In this context, the objective of the present study is to identify the current state of secondhand PV and HDD markets. After conducting a literature review, an automated data collection process was set up for that purpose. The analysis of the literature and collected data assess the maturity of the secondhand PV modules and HDDs markets and highlight differences between them.
agent-based modelling↗
Estimating the electric vehicle charging demand of multi-unit dwelling residents in the United States
Abstract Early battery electric vehicle (EV) adopters can access home chargers for reliable charging. As the EV market grows, residents of multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) may face barriers in owning EVs and charging them without garage or parking availability. To investigate the mechanisms that can bridge existing disparities in home charging and station deployment, we characterized the travel behavior of MUD residents and estimated their EV residential charging demand. This study classifies the travel patterns of MUD residents by fusing trip diary data from the National Household Travel Survey and housing features from the American Housing Survey. A hierarchical agglomerative clustering method was used to cluster apartment complex residents’ travel profiles, considering attributes such as dwell time, daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT), income, and their residences’ US census division. We propose a charging decision model to determine the charging station placement demand in MUDs and the charging energy volume expected to be consumed, assuming that MUD drivers universally operate EVs in urban communities. Numerical experiments were conducted to gain insight into the charging demand of MUD residents in the US. We found that charging availability is indispensable for households that set out to meet 80% state of charge by the end of the day. When maintaining a 20% comfortable state of charge the entire day, the higher the VMT are, the greater the share of charging demand and the greater the energy use in MUD chargers. The upper-income group requires a greater share of MUD charging and greater daily kWh charged because of more VMT.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Solar Energy from a Big Picture Perspective to Nanoscale Insights via TOF-SIMS
The world is undergoing a rapid transformation in the ways that we generate and store energy. This has been driven not only by concerns about the climate but by simple economic factors due to the dramatic cost decreases in wind in solar power. In most places of the world where one would now want to build a new power plant, the cheapest option is to use wind of solar for power generation. Abundant clean energy when the sun shines most is driving new research for daily and seasonal energy storage in many different technologies. Here, we will briefly these discuss energy trends as a whole, before diving into our recent contributions to the field using time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS) to improve the performance and reliability of solar cells.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗