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NASA NTRS2001

Cloud and Radiation Studies during SAFARI 2000

Platnick, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optical and Microphysical Retrievals of Marine Stratocumulus Clouds off the Coast of Namibia from Satellite and Aircraft

Though the emphasis of the Southern Africa Regional Science Initiative 2000 (SAFARI-2000) dry season campaign was largely on emission sources and transport, the assemblage of aircraft (including the high altitude NASA ER-2 remote sensing platform and the University of Washington CV-580, UK MRF C-130, and South African Weather Bureau JRA in situ aircrafts) provided a unique opportunity for cloud studies. Therefore, as part of the SAFARI initiative, investigations were undertaken to assess regional aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud remote sensing algorithms. In particular, the latter part of the experiment concentrated on marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds off the southwest coast of Africa. Associated with cold water upwelling along the Benguela current, the Namibian stratocumulus regime has received limited attention but appears to be unique for several reasons. During the dry season, outflow of continental fires and industrial pollution over this area can be extreme. From below, upwelling provides a rich nutrient source for phytoplankton (a source of atmospheric sulfur through DMS production as well as from decay processes). The impact of these natural and anthropogenic sources on the microphysical and optical properties of the stratocumulus is unknown. Continental and Indian Ocean cloud systems of opportunity were also studied during the campaign. SAFARI 2000 aircraft flights off the coast of Namibia were coordinated with NASA Terra Satellite overpasses for synergy with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and other Terra instruments. MODIS was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 (and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002). Among the remote sensing algorithms developed and applied to this sensor are cloud optical and microphysical properties that include cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, and effective particle radius of both liquid water and ice clouds. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, and fundamental atmospheric research. The archived MODIS Collection 5 cloud products processing stream will be used to analyze low water cloud scenes off the Namibian and Angolan coasts during SAFARI 2000 time period, as well as other years. Pixel-level Terra and Aqua MODIS retrievals (l. km spatial resolution at nadir) and gridded (1' uniform grid) statistics of cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius will be presented, including joint probability distributions between the two quantities. In addition, perspectives from the MODIS Airborne Simulator, which flew on the ER-2 during SAFARI 2000 providing high spatial resolution retrievals (50 m at nadir), will be presented as appropriate. The H-SAF Program requires an experimental operational European-centric Satellite Precipitation Algorithm System (E-SPAS) that produces medium spatial resolution and high temporal resolution surface rainfall and snowfall estimates over the Greater European Region including the Greater Mediterranean Basin. Currently, there are various types of experimental operational algorithm methods of differing spatiotemporal resolutions that generate global precipitation estimates. This address will first assess the current status of these methods and then recommend a methodology for the H-SAF Program that deviates somewhat from the current approach under development but one that takes advantage of existing techniques and existing software developed for the TRMM Project and available through the public domain.

Platnick, Steven E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Performance Evaluation of Engineered Structured Sorbents for Atmosphere Revitalization Systems On Board Crewed Space Vehicles and Habitats

Engineered structured (ES) sorbents are being developed to meet the technical challenges of future crewed space exploration missions. ES sorbents offer the inherent performance and safety attributes of zeolite and other physical adsorbents but with greater structural integrity and process control to improve durability and efficiency over packed beds. ES sorbent techniques that are explored include thermally linked and pressure-swing adsorption beds for water-save dehumidification and sorbent-coated metal meshes for residual drying, trace contaminant control, and carbon dioxide control. Results from sub-scale performance evaluations of a thermally linked pressure-swing adsorbent bed and an integrated sub-scale ES sorbent system are discussed.

Howard, David F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A design of experiments test to define critical spray cleaning parameters for Brulin 815 GD and Jettacin cleaners

Experimental design testing was conducted to identify critical parameters of an aqueous spray process intended for cleaning solid rocket motor metal components (steel and aluminum). A two-level, six-parameter, fractional factorial matrix was constructed and conducted for two cleaners, Brulin 815 GD and Diversey Jettacin. The matrix parameters included cleaner temperature and concentration, wash density, wash pressure, rinse pressure, and dishwasher type. Other spray parameters: nozzle stand-off, rinse water temperature, wash and rinse time, dry conditions, and type of rinse water (deionized) were held constant. Matrix response testing utilized discriminating bond specimens (fracture energy and tensile adhesion strength) which represent critical production bond lines. Overall, Jettacin spray cleaning was insensitive to the range of conditions tested for all parameters and exhibited bond strengths significantly above the TCA test baseline for all bond lines tested. Brulin 815 was sensitive to cleaning temperature, but produced bond strengths above the TCA test baseline even at the lower temperatures. Ultimately, the experimental design database was utilized to recommend process parameter settings for future aqueous spray cleaning characterization work.

Keen, Jill M.↗

NASA NTRS2006

SiC Composite Turbine Vanes

Turbine inlet guide vanes have been fabricated from composites of silicon carbide fibers in silicon carbide matrices. A unique design for a cloth made from SiC fibers makes it possible to realize the geometric features necessary to form these vanes in the same airfoil shapes as those of prior metal vanes. The fiber component of each of these vanes was made from SiC-fiber cloth coated with boron nitride. The matrix was formed by chemical-vapor infiltration with SiC, then slurry-casting of SiC, followed by melt infiltration with silicon. These SiC/SiC vanes were found to be capable of withstanding temperatures 400 F (222 C) greater than those that can be withstood by nickel-base-superalloy turbine airfoils now in common use in gas turbine engines. The higher temperature capability of SiC/SiC parts is expected to make it possible to use them with significantly less cooling than is used for metallic parts, thereby enabling engines to operate more efficiently while emitting smaller amounts of NOx and CO. The SiC/SiC composite vanes were fabricated in two different configurations. Each vane of one of the configurations has two internal cavities formed by a web between the suction and the pressure sides of the vane. Each vane of the other configuration has no web (see Figure 1). It is difficult to fabricate components having small radii, like those of the trailing edges of these vanes, by use of stiff stoichiometric SiC fibers currently preferred for SiC/SiC composites. To satisfy the severe geometric and structural requirements for these vanes, the aforementioned unique cloth design, denoted by the term Y-cloth, was conceived (see Figure 2). In the regions away from the trailing edge, the Y-cloth features a fiber architecture that had been well characterized and successfully demonstrated in combustor liners. To form a sharp trailing edge (having a radius of 0.3 mm), the cloth was split into two planes during the weaving process. The fiber tows forming the trailing-edge section were interlocked, thereby enhancing through-thickness strength of the resulting composite material. For vanes of the webless configuration, each made from a layup of six plies of Ycloth, the length of each Y-cloth layer was cut so that the two strips corresponding to the aforementioned two planes would wrap around the perimeter of a graphite vane preform tool with a 10-mm overlap. The overlap was used to join the two strips in a fringe splice. To make the external sixth ply, a standard woven cloth was cut to the required final length and a fringe splice joined the two ends of the cloth at the trailing edge. The cloth was then prepregged. The entire assembly was then placed into an aluminum compaction tool designed to form the outer net shape of the vane. After the prepreg material was allowed to dry, the preform was removed from the aluminum tooling and placed into an external graphite tool before being shipped to a vendor for matrix infiltration. To make the SiC fiber preform for a vane having an internal web, a slightly different initial approach was followed. Each of two sections forming the internal cavities (and ultimately the web) was created by first slipping two concentric layers of a two-dimensional, 2-by-2, 45 - braided tube around a net-shape graphite mandrel. The tubes on both mandrels were prepregged and allowed to dry. The resulting two subassemblies were put together, then four additional plies were wrapped around them in the same fashion as that described above for the six plies of the vaneless configuration. The consolidation of the SiC fiber preforms into SiC/SiC composite parts was performed by commercial vendors using their standard processes. The capability of two of the webless SiC/SiC turbine vanes was demonstrated in tests in a turbine environment. The tests included 50 hours of steady-state operation and 102 two-minute thermal cycles. A surface temperature of 1,320 C was reached during the tests.

Calomino, Anthony M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Short Range-Ordered Minerals: Insight into Aqueous Alteration Processes on Mars

Short range-ordered (SRO) aluminosilicates (e.g., allophane) and nanophase ferric oxides (npOx) are common SRO minerals derived during aqueous alteration of basaltic materials. NpOx refers to poorly crystalline or amorphous alteration products that can be any combination of superparamagnetic hematite and/or goethite, akaganeite, schwertmannite, ferrihydrite, iddingsite, and nanometer-sized ferric oxide particles that pigment palagonitic tephra. Nearly 30 years ago, SRO phases were suggested as alteration phases on Mars based on similar spectral properties for altered basaltic tephra on the slopes of Mauna Kea in Hawaii and Martian bright regions measured by Earth-based telescopes. Detailed characterization of altered basaltic tephra on Mauna Kea have identified a variety of alteration phases including allophane, npOx, hisingerite, jarosite, alunite, hematite, goethite, ferrihydrite, halloysite, kaolinite, smectite, and zeolites. The presence of npOx and other Fe-bearing minerals (jarosite, hematite, goethite) was confirmed by the M ssbauer Spectrometer onboard the Mars Exploration Rovers. Although the presence of allophane has not been definitely identified on Mars robotic missions, chemical analysis by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers and thermal infrared spectral orbital measurements suggest the presence of allophane or allophane-like phases on Mars. SRO phases form under a variety of environmental conditions on Earth ranging from cold and arid to warm and humid, including hydrothermal conditions. The formation of SRO aluminosilicates such as allophane (and crystalline halloysite) from basaltic material is controlled by several key factors including activity of water, extent of leaching, Si activity in solution, and available Al. Generally, a low leaching index (e.g., wet-dry cycles) and slightly acidic to alkaline conditions are necessary. NpOx generally form under aqueous oxidative weathering conditions, although thermal oxidative alteration may occasional be involved. The style of aqueous alteration (hydrolytic vs. acid sulfate) impacts which phases will form (e.g., oxides, oxysulfates, and oxyhydroxides). Knowledge on the formation processes of SRO phases in basaltic materials on Earth has allowed significant enhancement in our understanding of the aqueous processes at work on Mars. The 2011 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) will provide an instrument suite that should improve our understanding of the mineralogical and chemical compositions of SRO phases. CheMin is an X-ray diffraction instrument that may provide broad X-ray diffraction peaks for SRO phases; e.g., broad peaks around 0.33 and 0.23 nm for allophane. Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) heats samples and detects evolved gases of volatile-bearing phases including SRO phases (i.e., carbonates, sulfates, hydrated minerals). The Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) and ChemCam element analyzers will provide chemical characterization of samples. The identification of SRO phases in surface materials on MSL will be challenging due to their nanocrystalline properties; their detection and identification will require utilizing the MSL instrument suite in concert. Ultimately, sample return missions will be required to definitively identify and fully characterize SRO minerals with state-of-the-art laboratory instrumentation back on Earth.

Ming, Douglas W.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Using Giovanni in Investigating the Links between Environmental Processes and Drought in Northern sub-Saharan Africa

The northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) region, bounded on the north and south by the Sahara and the Equator, respectively, and stretching East-West across Africa, is very vulnerable because of the highly active environmental and meteorological processes associated with its unique location and human activities that adversely impact the regional water cycle. Over the years, this region has suffered frequent severe droughts that have caused tremendous hardship and loss of life to millions of its inhabitants due to the rapid depletion of the regional water resources, as exemplified by the dramatic drying of Lake Chad. On the other hand, the NSSA region shows one of the highest biomass-burning rates per unit land area among all regions of the world. Because of the high concentration and frequency of fires in this region, with the associated abundance of heat release and gaseous and particulate smoke emissions, biomass-burning activity is believed to be one of the drivers of the regional carbon and energy cycles, with serious implications for the water cycle. An interdisciplinary research effort funded by NASA is presently being focused on the NSSA region, to better understand possible connections between the intense biomass burning observed from satellite year after year across the region and the water cycle, through associated changes in land-cover, surface albedo, emissions, atmospheric processes, precipitation, soil moisture, surface evaporation and runoff, and groundwater recharge. A combination of remote sensing and modeling approaches is being utilized to investigate these multiple processes to clarify possible links between them. However, by using Giovanni, we are able to extract and jointly analyze some of the important relevant parameters to obtain a first insight into their relationships. In this presentation, we will discuss these preliminary results as well as the path toward improved understanding of the interrelationships and feedbacks between the water cycle components and the environmental change dynamics due to biomass burning and related processes in the NSSA region.

water resources↗

NASA NTRS2000

Volcanism on the Red Planet: Mars

Of all the planets in the Solar System, Mars is the most Earthlike in its geological characteristics. Like Earth, it has been subjected to exogenic processes, such as impact cratesing and erosion by wind and water, as well as endogenic processes, including tectonic deformation of the crust and volcanism. The effects of these processes are amply demonstrated by the great variety of surface features, including impact craters, landslides, former river channels, sand dunes, and the largest volcanoes in the Solar System. Some of these features suggest substantial changes in Mars' environment during its history. For example, as reviewed by Carr, today Mars is a cold, dry desert with an average atmospheric pressure of only 5.6 mbar which does not allow liquid water to exist on the surface. To some planetary scientists, the presence of the channels bespeaks a time when Mars was warmer and wetter. However, others have argued that these features might have formed under current conditions and that there might not have been a shift in climate. Could the morphology of volcanoes and related features provide clues to past Martian environments? What role is played by atmospheric density in the styles of eruptions on Mars and resulting landforms? If these and related questions can be answered, then we may have a means for assessing the conditions on Mars' surface in the past and comparing the results with models of Martian evolution. In this chapter, we outline the sources of information available for volcanism on Mars, explore the influence of the Martian environment on volcanic processes, and describe the principal volcanic features and their implications for understanding the general evolution of the Martian surface.

Greeley, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS1977

Lock hopper values for coal gasification plant service

Although the operating principle of the lock hopper system is extremely simple, valve applications involving this service for coal gasification plants are likewise extremely difficult. The difficulties center on the requirement of handling highly erosive pulverized coal or char (either in dry or slurry form) combined with the requirement of providing tight sealing against high-pressure (possibly very hot) gas. Operating pressures and temperatures in these applications typically range up to 1600 psi (110bar) and 600F (316C), with certain process requirements going even higher. In addition, and of primary concern, is the need for reliable operation over long service periods with the provision for practical and economical maintenance. Currently available data indicate the requirement for something in the order of 20,000 to 30,000 open-close cycles per year and a desire to operate at least that long without valve failure.

Schoeneweis, E. F.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Evaluation of an Anaerobic Digestion System for Processing CELSS Crop Residues for Resource Recovery

Three bioreactors, connected in series, were used to process CELSS potato residues for recovery of resources. The first stage was an anaerobic digestor (8 L working volume; cow rumen contents inoculum; fed-batch; 8 day retention time; feed rate 25 gdw/day) that converted 33% of feed (dry weight loss) to CO2 and "volatile fatty acids" (vfa, 83:8:8 mmolar ratio acetic:propionic:butyric). High nitrate-N in the potato residue feed was absent in the anaerobic effluent, with a high portion converted to NH4(+)-N and the remainder unaccounted and probably lost to denitrification and NH4(+) volatilization. Liquid anaerobic effluent was fed to an aerobic, yeast biomass production vessel (2 L volume; Candida ingens inoculum; batch [pellicle] growth; 2 day retention time) where the VFAs and some NH4(+)-N were converted into yeast biomass. Yeast yields accounted for up to 8% of potato residue fed into the anaerobic bioreactor. The third bioreactor (0.5 L liquid working volume; commercial nitrifier inoculum; packed-bed biofilm; continuous yeast effluent feed; recirculating; constant volume; 2 day hydraulic retention time) was used to convert successfully the remaining NH4(+)-N into nitrate-N (preferred form of N for CELSS crop production) and to remove the remaining degradable soluble organic carbon. Effluents from the last two stages were used for partial replenishment of minerals for hydroponic potato production.

Strayer, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Floating Ultrasonic Transducer Inspection System and Method for Nondestructive Evaluation

A method for inspecting a structural sample using ultrasonic energy includes positioning an ultrasonic transducer adjacent to a surface of the sample, and then transmitting ultrasonic energy into the sample. Force pulses are applied to the transducer concurrently with transmission of the ultrasonic energy. A host machine processes ultrasonic return pulses from an ultrasonic pulser/receiver to quantify attenuation of the ultrasonic energy within the sample. The host machine detects a defect in the sample using the quantified level of attenuation. The method may include positioning a dry couplant between an ultrasonic transducer and the surface. A system includes an actuator, an ultrasonic transducer, a dry couplant between the transducer the sample, a scanning device that moves the actuator and transducer, and a measurement system having a pulsed actuator power supply, an ultrasonic pulser/receiver, and a host machine that executes the above method.

Zalameda, Joseph N.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Design, durability and low cost processing technology for composite fan exit guide vanes

A lightweight composite fan exit guide vane for high bypass ratio gas turbine engine application was investigated. Eight candidate material/design combinations were evaluated by NASTRAN finite element analyses. A total of four combinations were selected for further analytical evaluation, part fabrication by two ventors, and fatigue test in dry and wet condition. A core and shell vane design was chosen in which the unidirectional graphite core fiber was the same for all candidates. The shell material, fiber orientation, and ply configuration were varied. Material tests were performed on raw material and composite specimens to establish specification requirements. Pre-test and post-test microstructural examination and nondestructive analyses were conducted to determine the effect of material variations on fatigue durability and failure mode. Relevant data were acquired with respect to design analysis, materials properties, inspection standards, improved durability, weight benefits, and part price of the composite fan exit guide vane.

Blecherman, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Transport and mixing processes in the lower troposphere over the ocean

Aircraft observations in the lower troposphere over the eastern Pacific Ocean in summer are examined. The free troposphere was found to have a distinctly nonuniform, layered structure. In maritime air the layers consist of partially mixed air from several sources: moist ozone-depleted boundary layer air; very dry air with high ozone content that probably originated in the middle or upper troposphere; and air with relatively low ozone and moderate, varying moisture content that probably represents residues of convective clouds that had formed over the ocean upstream of the research area. The subtropical high results in stably stratified, subsiding air, where discrete horizontal layers with differing flow velocities transport air over long distances with little vertical mixing.

Paluch, I. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Water Recovery Rate from the Heat Melt Compactor

Human space missions generate trash with a substantial amount of plastic (20% or greater by mass). The trash also contains water trapped in food residue and paper products and other trash items. The Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) under development by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) compresses the waste, dries it to recover water and melts the plastic to encapsulate the compressed trash. The resulting waste disk or puck represents an approximately ten-fold reduction in the volume of the initial trash loaded into the HMC. In the current design concept being pursued, the trash is compressed by a piston after it is loaded into the trash chamber. The piston face, the side walls of the waste processing chamber and the end surface in contact with the waste can be heated to evaporate the water and to melt the plastic. Water is recovered by the HMC in two phases. The first is a pre-process compaction without heat or with the heaters initially turned on but before the waste heats up. Tests have shown that during this step some liquid water may be expelled from the chamber. This water is believed to be free water (i.e., not bound with or absorbed in other waste constituents) that is present in the trash. This phase is herein termed Phase A of the water recovery process. During HMC operations, it is desired that liquid water recovery in Phase A be eliminated or minimized so that water-vapor processing equipment (e.g., condensers) downstream of the HMC are not fouled by liquid water and its constituents (i.e., suspended or dissolved matter) exiting the HMC. The primary water recovery process takes place next where the trash is further compacted while the heated surfaces reach their set temperatures for this step. This step will be referred to herein as Phase B of the water recovery process. During this step the waste chamber may be exposed to different selected pressures such as ambient, low pressure (e.g., 0.2 atm), or vacuum. The objective for this step is to remove both bound and any remaining free water in the trash by evaporation. The temperature settings of the heated surfaces are usually kept above the saturation temperature of water but below the melting temperature of the plastic in the waste during this step to avoid any encapsulation of wet trash which would reduce the amount of recovered water by blocking the vapor escape. In this paper, we analyze the water recovery rate during Phase B where the trash is heated and water leaves the waste chamber as vapor, for operation of the HMC in reduced gravity. We pursue a quasi-one-dimensional model with and without sidewall heating to determine the water recovery rate and the trash drying time. The influences of the trash thermal properties, the amount of water loading, and the distribution of the water in the trash on the water recovery rates are determined.

Heat Melt Compactor↗

NASA NTRS1981

Technology development of the Space Transportation System mission and terrestrial applications of satellite technology

The Space Transportation System (STS) is discussed, including the launch processing system, the thermal protection subsystem, meteorological research, sound supression water system, rotating service structure, improved hypergol or removal systems, fiber optics research, precision positioning, remote controlled solid rocket booster nozzle plugs, ground operations for Centaur orbital transfer vehicle, parachute drying, STS hazardous waste disposal and recycle, toxic waste technology and control concepts, fast analytical densitometry study, shuttle inventory management system, operational intercommunications system improvement, and protective garment ensemble. Terrestrial applications are also covered, including LANDSAT applications to water resources, satellite freeze forecast system, application of ground penetrating radar to soil survey, turtle tracking, evaluating computer drawn ground cover maps, sparkless load pulsar, and coupling a microcomputer and computing integrator with a gas chromatograph.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1985

High atmospheric NO(x) levels and multiple photochemical steady states

The rate of removal of atmospheric NO(x) compounds at different NO(x) levels is estimated using a one-dimensional photochemical model. NO(x) removal by wet deposition, surface deposition, and thermochemical processes is examined. NO(x) removal rates at different surface NO mixing ratios are calculated and the data are analyzed. It is revealed that at low NO(x) levels NO(x) is photochemically converted to HNO3 by either wet or dry deposition; however, at high NO(x) levels formation of HNO3 is inhibited due to the disappearance of tropospheric ozone and OH, and the NO(x) is removed by rainout of N2O4 and N2O5, surface deposition of NO and NO2, and direct dissolution of NO and NO2 in rainwater. The effects of NO(x) mixing ratios greater than 10 to the -7th on the ozone and climate are investigated.

Kasting, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Soil temperatures and stability of ice-cemented ground in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Year-round temperature measurements at 1600 m elevation during 1994 in the Asgard Range Antarctica, indicate that the mean annual frost point of the ice-cemented ground, 25 cm below the surface, is -21.7 +/- 0.2 degrees C and the mean annual frost point of the atmosphere is -27.5 +/- 1.0 degrees C. The corresponding mean annual temperatures are -24.9 degrees C and -23.3 degrees C. These results imply that there is a net flux of water vapour from the ice to the atmosphere resulting in a recession of the ice-cemented ground by about 0.4-0.6 mm yr-1. The level of the ice-cemented permafrost is about 12 cm below the level of dry permafrost. The summer air temperatures would have to increase about 7 degrees C for thawing temperatures to just reach the top of the subsurface ice. Either subsurface ice at this location is evaporating over time or there are sporadic processes that recharge the ice and maintain equilibrium over long timescales.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2016

North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Western North America experienced episodes of intense aridity that persisted for multiple decades or longer. These megadroughts are well documented in many proxy records, but the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. General circulation models (GCMs) simulate megadroughts, but do not reproduce the temporal clustering of events during the MCA, suggesting they are not caused by the time history of volcanic or solar forcing. Instead, GCMs generate megadroughts through (1) internal atmospheric variability, (2) sea-surface temperatures, and (3) land surface and dust aerosol feedbacks. While no hypothesis has been definitively rejected, and no GCM has accurately reproduced all features (e.g., timing, duration, and extent) of any specific megadrought, their persistence suggests a role for processes that impart memory to the climate system (land surface and ocean dynamics). Over the 21st century, GCMs project an increase in the risk of megadrought occurrence through greenhouse gas forced reductions in precipitation and increases in evaporative demand. This drying is robust across models and multiple drought indicators, but major uncertainties still need to be resolved. These include the potential moderation of vegetation evaporative losses at higher atmospheric [CO2], variations in land surface model complexity, and decadal to multidecadal modes of natural climate variability that could delay or advance onset of aridification over the the next several decades. Because future droughts will arise from both natural variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate, improving our understanding of the natural drivers of persistent multidecadal megadroughts should be a major research priority.

atmospheric temperature↗