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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A voxel-based multiscale model to simulate the radiation response of hypoxic tumors

Purpose: In radiotherapy, it is important to predict the response of tumors to irradiation prior to the treatment. This is especially important for hypoxic tumors, which are known to be highly radioresistant. Mathematical modeling based on the dose distribution, biological parameters, and medical images may help to improve this prediction and to optimize the treatment plan. Methods: A voxel-based multiscale tumor response model for simulating the radiation response of hypoxic tumors was developed. It considers viable and dead tumor cells, capillary and normal cells, as well as the most relevant biological processes such as (i) proliferation of tumor cells, (ii) hypoxia-induced angiogenesis, (iii) spatial exchange of cells leading to tumor growth, (iv) oxygen-dependent cell survival after irradiation, (v) resorption of dead cells, and (vi) spatial exchange of cells leading to tumor shrinkage. Oxygenation is described on a microscopic scale using a previously published tumor oxygenation model, which calculates the oxygen distribution for each voxel using the vascular fraction as the most important input parameter. To demonstrate the capabilities of the model, the dependence of the oxygen distribution on tumor growth and radiation-induced shrinkage is investigated. In addition, the impact of three different reoxygenation processes is compared and tumor control probability (TCP) curves for a squamous cells carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSSC) are simulated under normoxic and hypoxic conditions. Results: The model describes the spatiotemporal behavior of the tumor on three different scales: (i) on the macroscopic scale, it describes tumor growth and shrinkage during radiation treatment, (ii) on a mesoscopic scale, it provides the cell density and vascular fraction for each voxel, and (iii) on the microscopic scale, the oxygen distribution may be obtained in terms of oxygen histograms. With increasing tumor size, the simulated tumors develop a hypoxic core. Within the model, tumor shrinkage was found to be significantly more important for reoxygenation than angiogenesis or decreased oxygen consumption due to an increased fraction of dead cells. In the studied HNSSC-case, the TCD{sub 50} values (dose at 50% TCP) decreased from 71.0 Gy under hypoxic to 53.6 Gy under the oxic condition. Conclusions: The results obtained with the developed multiscale model are in accordance with expectations based on radiobiological principles and clinical experience. As the model is voxel-based, radiological imaging methods may help to provide the required 3D-characterization of the tumor prior to irradiation. For clinical application, the model has to be further validated with experimental and clinical data. If this is achieved, the model may be used to optimize fractionation schedules and dose distributions for the treatment of hypoxic tumors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Improved Modeling Tools Development for High Penetration Solar

One of the significant objectives of the High Penetration solar research is to help the DOE understand, anticipate, and minimize grid operation impacts as more solar resources are added to the electric power system. For Task 2.2, an effective, reliable approach to predicting solar energy availability for energy generation forecasts using the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) Sky Imager technology has been demonstrated. Granular cloud and ramp forecasts for the next 5 to 20 minutes over an area of 10 square miles were developed. Sky images taken every 30 seconds are processed to determine cloud locations and cloud motion vectors yielding future cloud shadow locations respective to distributed generation or utility solar power plants in the area. The performance of the method depends on cloud characteristics. On days with more advective cloud conditions, the developed method outperforms persistence forecasts by up to 30% (based on mean absolute error). On days with dynamic conditions, the method performs worse than persistence. Sky Imagers hold promise for ramp forecasting and ramp mitigation in conjunction with inverter controls and energy storage. The pre-commercial Sky Imager solar forecasting algorithm was documented with licensing information and was a Sunshot website highlight.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

THE ROLE OF CORE MASS IN CONTROLLING EVAPORATION: THE KEPLER RADIUS DISTRIBUTION AND THE KEPLER-36 DENSITY DICHOTOMY

We use models of coupled thermal evolution and photo-evaporative mass loss to understand the formation and evolution of the Kepler-36 system. We show that the large contrast in mean planetary density observed by Carter et al. can be explained as a natural consequence of photo-evaporation from planets that formed with similar initial compositions. However, rather than being due to differences in XUV irradiation between the planets, we find that this contrast is due to the difference in the masses of the planets' rock/iron cores and the impact that this has on mass-loss evolution. We explore in detail how our coupled models depend on irradiation, mass, age, composition, and the efficiency of mass loss. Based on fits to large numbers of coupled evolution and mass-loss runs, we provide analytic fits to understand threshold XUV fluxes for significant atmospheric loss, as a function of core mass and mass-loss efficiency. Finally we discuss these results in the context of recent studies of the radius distribution of Kepler candidates. Using our parameter study, we make testable predictions for the frequency of sub-Neptune-sized planets. We show that 1.8-4.0 R{sub ⊕} planets should become significantly less common on orbits within 10 days and discuss the possibility of a narrow 'occurrence valley' in the radius-flux distribution. Moreover, we describe how photo-evaporation provides a natural explanation for the recent observations of Ciardi et al. that inner planets are preferentially smaller within the systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study on 3D Internal Magnetic Field Distribution and Dynamic Mechanics of a Giant Magnetostrictive Actuator

The three-dimensional (3D) coupled magneto-elastic dynamic model of a giant magnetostrictive actuator (GMA) was built based on Maxwell’s equations, elasticity, and vibration theories. The general analytical expressions for the 3D internal magnetic field distribution of GMA were derived, and the corresponding analytical solutions were obtained. This analytical model is able to predict the internal magnetic field distribution and the output displacement of GMA system with different physical parameters under external excitations. The dynamic behaviors, such as the amplitude vs. frequency responses and the time domain waveforms of the GMA, were also studied. Analytical solutions showed that the internal magnetic field has a prominent end effect along the axial direction of a giant magnetostrictive material (GMM) rod, whereas a minimal skin effect along its radial direction, which are matched very well with the FEM results. The amplitude-frequency relationship exhibited prominent resonance and anti-resonance characteristic, which is a typical hysteresis feature of the GMA system. In order to testify the validity of the model prediction, a GMA testing system was also established. Excellent agreement was found between the experiment measurements and model predictions in the range of our research (frequency is lower than 300 Hz). The analytical results of the present study have potential applications in the fields of active vibration control and other precision machining of the GMA system.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Inferring Atmospheric Release Characteristics in a Large Computer Experiment using Bayesian Adaptive Splines

An atmospheric release of hazardous material, whether accidental or intentional, can be catastrophic for those in the path of the plume. Predicting the path of a plume based on characteristics of the release (location, amount and duration) and meteorological conditions is an active research area highly relevant for emergency and long-term response to these releases. As a result, researchers have developed particle dispersion simulators to provide plume path predictions that incorporate release characteristics and meteorological conditions. However, since release characteristics and meteorological conditions are often unknown, the inverse problem is of great interest, that is, based on all the observations of the plume so far, what can be inferred about the release characteristics? This is the question we seek to answer using plume observations from a controlled release at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in Central California. With access to a large number of evaluations of a computationally expensive particle dispersion simulator that includes continuous and categorical inputs and spatio-temporal output, building a fast statistical surrogate model (or emulator) presents many statistical challenges, but is an essential tool for inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. We achieve accurate emulation using Bayesian adaptive splines to model weights on empirical orthogonal functions. Here, we use this emulator as well as appropriately identifiable simulator discrepancy and observational error models to calibrate the simulator, thus finding a posterior distribution of characteristics of the release. Since the release was controlled, these characteristics are known, making it possible to compare our findings to the truth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Sensor Optimal Motion Planning for Radiological Contamination Surveys by Using Prediction-Difference Maps

Distributed and networked mobile sensor platforms using unmanned aerial and/or ground vehicles to survey areas of interest offer a safer and more efficient method for radiological contamination mapping; however, most applications rely on uniformly sweeping of the area in a raster-type motion without utilizing the information available in a dynamic sense. We have developed a fully autonomous optimal motion planning procedure for networks with two or more mobile sensors. The procedure utilizes well-established concepts of Gaussian processes in combination with control laws based on centroidal Voronoi tessellations to achieve optimal next-iteration sensor movements. A new method of informing optimal motion planning is proposed, whereby the absolute difference between the prior and current full-map prediction, referred to as the prediction-difference map, is used as the spatial density function within each Voronoi cell, providing immediate and iterative feedback for dynamic use of available information. The Gaussian process regression model used to estimate the contamination in unvisited locations also provides prediction uncertainties, and can be used as a quantitative metric to assess the confidence in the calculated contamination map; these estimates and prediction uncertainties are unavailable for standard uniform survey routines as they can only produce maps in the vicinity of observed locations. We present through simulation the achievable performance gains from using this new method by directly comparing to a uniform survey method. Results show that using the prediction-difference maps to inform motion planning procedures offers a faster rate of producing an accurate and convergent map relative to a uniform survey route.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The distribution, orientation, and characteristics of natural fractures for Experiment 1 of the EGS Collab Project, Sanford Underground Research Facility

The EGS Collab project is focused on understanding and predicting permeability enhancement and evolution in crystalline rocks. To accomplish this, the project is creating a suite of intermediate-scale (~10-20 m) field test beds coupled with stimulation and interwell flow tests that will provide a basis to better understand the fracture geometries and processes that control heat transfer between rock and stimulated fractures. As part of the site characterization effort for the first experimental test bed, our team has worked on mapping the distribution, orientation, and nature of open and healed fractures exposed along the drift wall and within the eight bore holes drilled for this test bed. The fractures have been characterized through detailed description of continuous cores obtained from these boreholes, evaluation of televiewer logs, and mapping of fractures and seeps exposed along the drift wall. The fracture data are being compiled and interpreted for slip and dilation tendencies, and will be incorporated into coupled-process geomechanical flow and transport models to better constrain the planned flow and tracer tests.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The impact of halo concentration on the Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect signal from massive galaxy clusters

ABSTRACT The Sunyaev Zel’dovich (SZ) effect is sensitive to the pressure of ionized gas inside galaxy clusters, which is in turn controlled largely by the gravitational potential of the cluster. Changing the concentration parameter describing the cluster mass distribution impacts the gravitational potential and thus the cluster SZ signal, with implications for cosmological and other analyses of SZ-selected clusters. We investigate the concentration–SZ relation in theory and simulations. We find that the impact of concentration on the inner SZ profile (R ≲ 0.75R200c) can be captured with standard polytropic gas models. However, we find that such models do a poor job of reproducing the outer SZ profiles (R ≳ 0.75R200c) and the relation between the integrated SZ signal, Y, and concentration. This disagreement results from a sharp truncation of the gas pressure profile near the splashback radius, likely caused by virial shocks. We develop a simple description of the truncation that leads to a good match with the simulated SZ profiles out to several R200c for clusters of varying mass and concentration, and that also accurately predicts the concentration–Y relationship. Finally, we determine how inference of the linear bias parameter and splashback radius for SZ-selected clusters can be biased by ignoring the concentration dependence of the SZ signal, finding that bias to the former is essentially negligible, while bias to the latter can be as much as 2 per cent.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Insights Into Thermal Runaway Mechanisms: Fast Tomography Analysis of Metal Agglomerates in Lithium-Ion Batteries

Thermal Runaway (TR) in lithium-ion batteries (LIB) is a critical technological and social concern. Whilst such events are rare, TR is characterized by uncontrollable heating leading to catastrophic failures. To deepen the understanding of the failure process and subsequently develop more accurate TR prediction models and as a result safer battery systems, we present in this work high-speed X-ray tomography for in-depth investigations of the copper current collector melting and agglomeration during TR. The melting process presents valuable real-time internal information about heat evolution during TR, previously challenging to access but crucially important for validating TR models. In this work, controlled failure studies combined with high-speed X-ray tomography were performed on two different commercial LIB models, subjecting them to both external heating and nail penetration to induce TR. Through real-time observation via high-speed tomography, followed by segmentation, rendering, and analysis, the formation of copper agglomerates was qualitatively and quantitatively characterized and visualized for the first time. Agglomerates tended to form either from the battery's outermost layers or centrally, depending on the method of TR initiation, and gives an indirect insight into the internal temperature evolution and distribution. Moreover, an initial comparative analysis between the battery models also revealed differences in agglomerate size, which has been linked to the thicker copper current collectors of one of the cell models. We further discuss the impact of larger copper agglomerates on heat distribution and safety. This study not only sheds light on the intricate dynamics of TR in LIBs but also underscores the pivotal role of 'gold-standard' imaging techniques in advancing battery safety, crucial for the robust modeling of TR and the future design of electric vehicle safety systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

High Performance Adaptive Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-based Real-time Emergency Control (HADREC) to Enhance Power Grid Resilience in Stochastic Environment (Final Report)

The HADREC technology developed in this project features real-time, validated, and predictive emergency control capabilities needed to effectively safeguard the grid against costly disturbances from extreme weather and other disruptive events. It has the potential to revolutionize the emergency control by providing faster and more effective solution for power grid emergency control. The technology can reduce the grid emergency control action time from minutes to seconds and mitigate the impact of outages and reduce system recovery time. The evaluation results using the models and data from PacifiCorp system have shown ~20% improvement in responding time and 70% improved in tripped generator output, comparing against today’s industrial application. This performance can help reduce preventive measurements and improve network utilization and market efficiency, and help lead to a more reliable and resilient power grid with renewable integration. The project has generated significant interest from industry, academic and commercial companies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding the Hydrogeochemical Response of a Mountainous Watershed Using Integrated Surface‐Subsurface Flow and Reactive Transport Modeling

Abstract Climate change and other disturbances significantly impact hydrogeochemical exports from mountainous headwater catchments such as the Upper Colorado River Basin. Developing a mechanistic understanding of how the physical and chemical processes interact in time and space in an integrated manner is key to quantifying the future impacts of such disturbances. The hydrogeochemical response of a mountainous catchment in the 2010–2019 period is evaluated quantitatively using a high‐resolution model that simulates integrated hydrology, and transport and reactions for selected solutes and minerals. The model assumes that pyrite is present only at depth while calcite is distributed uniformly, and captures the observed C‐Q reasonably well. Distinct C‐Q dynamics are observed in an average (WY16), a wet (WY17), and a dry (WY18) water year. The model also quantifies the water fraction from surface, shallow and deep groundwater compartments using tracers, and suggests greater groundwater contributions to peak stream discharge in the dry WY18. Results demonstrate that calcium concentrations do not change significantly from year to year, while sulfate shows significant temporal variability. Pyrite dissolution is affected by the changing hydrological drivers where it is enhanced in the dry WY18; calcite dissolution supplements calcium dilution under high flow conditions. The model simulates the reaction hotspots controlled by hydrological conditions, and the spatially‐resolved results show that higher soil saturation and less snowpack occur earlier on the south‐facing side than on the north‐facing side. This is a first‐of‐its‐kind demonstration of a model that integrates hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration, and reactive transport to enable a predictive understanding of hydrogeochemical exports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Climate Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Can Be Tailored Using Multiple Injection Locations

By injecting different amounts of SO 2 at multiple different latitudes, the spatial pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) can be partially controlled. This leads to the ability to influence the climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric aerosols, providing the potential for design. In this work, we use simulations from the fully coupled whole-atmosphere chemistry climate model CESM1(WACCM) to demonstrate that by appropriately combining injection at just four different locations, 30°S, 15°S, 15°N, and 30°N, then three spatial degrees of freedom of AOD can be achieved: an approximately spatially uniform AOD distribution, the relative difference in AOD between Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and the relative AOD in high versus low latitudes. For forcing levels that yield 1–2°C cooling, the AOD and surface temperature response are sufficiently linear in this model so that the response to different combinations of injection at different latitudes can be estimated from single-latitude injection simulations; nonlinearities associated with both aerosol growth and changes to stratospheric circulation will be increasingly important at higher forcing levels. Optimized injection at multiple locations is predicted to improve compensation of CO 2 -forced climate change relative to a case using only equatorial aerosol injection (which overcools the tropics relative to high latitudes). The additional degrees of freedom can be used, for example, to balance the interhemispheric temperature gradient and the equator to pole temperature gradient in addition to the global mean temperature. Further research is needed to better quantify the impacts of these strategies on changes to long-term temperature, precipitation, and other climate parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design Principles for Optimum Performance of Porous Carbons in Lithium-Sulfur Batteries

Here, a series of experiments is presented that establishes for the first time the role of some of the key design parameters of porous carbons including surface area, pore volume, and pore size on battery performance. A series of hierarchical porous carbons is used as a model system with an open, 3D, interconnected porous framework and highly controlled porosity. Specifically, carbons with surface areas ranging from ≈500–2800 m 2 g -1 , pore volume from ≈0.6–5 cm 3 g -1 , and pore size from micropores (≈1 nm) to large mesopores (≈30 nm) are synthesized and tested. At high sulfur loadings (≈80 wt% S), pore volume is more important than surface area with respect to sulfur utilization. Mesopore size, in the range tested, does not affect the sulfur utilization. No relationship between porosity and long-term cycle life is observed. All systems fail after 200–300 cycles, which is likely due to the consumption of the LiNO 3 additive over cycling. Moreover, cryo-scanning transmission electron microscopy imaging of these carbon–sulfur composites combined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) provides further insights into the effect of initial sulfur distribution on sulfur utilization while also revealing the inadequacy of the indirect characterization techniques alone in reliably predicting distribution of sulfur within porous carbon matrices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Small Scale Mixing Demonstration Batch Transfer and Sampling Performance of Simulated HLW - 12307

The ability to effectively mix, sample, certify, and deliver consistent batches of High Level Waste (HLW) feed from the Hanford Double Shell Tanks (DST) to the Waste treatment Plant (WTP) has been recognized as a significant mission risk with potential to impact mission length and the quantity of HLW glass produced. At the end of 2009 DOE's Tank Operations Contractor, Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), awarded a contract to EnergySolutions to design, fabricate and operate a demonstration platform called the Small Scale Mixing Demonstration (SSMD) to establish pre-transfer sampling capacity, and batch transfer performance data at two different scales. This data will be used to examine the baseline capacity for a tank mixed via rotational jet mixers to transfer consistent or bounding batches, and provide scale up information to predict full scale operational performance. This information will then in turn be used to define the baseline capacity of such a system to transfer and sample batches sent to WTP. The Small Scale Mixing Demonstration (SSMD) platform consists of 43'' and 120'' diameter clear acrylic test vessels, each equipped with two scaled jet mixer pump assemblies, and all supporting vessels, controls, services, and simulant make up facilities. All tank internals have been modeled including the air lift circulators (ALCs), the steam heating coil, and the radius between the wall and floor. The test vessels are set up to simulate the transfer of HLW out of a mixed tank, and collect a pre-transfer sample in a manner similar to the proposed baseline configuration. The collected material is submitted to an NQA-1 laboratory for chemical analysis. Previous work has been done to assess tank mixing performance at both scales. This work involved a combination of unique instruments to understand the three dimensional distribution of solids using a combination of Coriolis meter measurements, in situ chord length distribution measurements, and electro-resistive tomography. This current work utilized the same instruments to monitor simulated waste transfers. This paper will discuss some of the scaling compromises when it came to the scaled sampling system design, handling of large quantities of material for sampling, and present data for the discuss of likely behavior of the full scale DST based on scaling correlations using a scale ratio exponent (SRE) from 0.25 to 0.45 and the behavior observed in the SSMD platform. This does not establish a scaling factor for DST mixing using paired jet mixers but is an attempt to envelope the likely performance ranges in terms of certification sampling bias, certification sample root-mean-square-deviation, and bath to batch relative standard deviation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A new method to quantify the effects of baryons on the matter power spectrum

Future large-scale galaxy surveys have the potential to become leading probes for cosmology provided the influence of baryons on the total mass distribution is understood well enough. As hydrodynamical simulations strongly depend on details in the feedback implementations, no unique and robust predictions for baryonic effects currently exist. In this paper we propose a baryonic correction model that modifies the density field of dark-matter-only N-body simulations to mimic the effects of baryons from any underlying adopted feedback recipe. The model assumes haloes to consist of 4 components: 1- hot gas in hydrostatical equilibrium, 2- ejected gas from feedback processes, 3- central galaxy stars, and 4- adiabatically relaxed dark matter, which all modify the initial dark-matter-only density profiles. These altered profiles allow to define a displacement field for particles in N-body simulations and to modify the total density field accordingly. The main advantage of the baryonic correction model is to connect the total matter density field to the observable distribution of gas and stars in haloes, making it possible to parametrise baryonic effects on the matter power spectrum. We show that the most crucial quantities are the mass fraction of ejected gas and its corresponding ejection radius. The former controls how strongly baryons suppress the power spectrum, while the latter provides a measure of the scale where baryonic effects become important. A comparison with X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich cluster observations suggests that baryons suppress wave modes above k∼0.5 h/Mpc with a maximum suppression of 10-25 percent around k∼ 2 h/Mpc. More detailed observations of the gas in the outskirts of groups and clusters are required to decrease the large uncertainties of these numbers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗