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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Probability Density Function Control for Stochastic Nonlinear Systems using Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper presents a fast implementation framework of output probability density function (PDF) control for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems which are subjected to non-Gaussian noises. The statistical properties of the system outputs can be adjusted by shaping the dynamic output probability density function to track the reference stochastic distribution. However, the dynamic probability density function evolution is very difficult to obtain analytically even if the system model and the stochastic distributions of the noises are known. Motivated by Monte Carlo simulation, the dynamic probability density function can be estimated by sampling data which forms the contribution of this paper. In particular, the sampling points are generated following the stochastic distribution of the noise for each instant. These points go through the system would generate the histogram for system outputs, then the dynamic model can be established based on the dynamic histogram which reflects the randomness and the nonlinear dynamics of the investigated system. Based on the established model, the output probability density function tracking can be achieved and the simulation results and discussions show the effectiveness and benefits of the presented framework.

Zhang, Qichun↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Distribution System Resilience: A First-Order Meta-RL Algorithm for Critical Load Restoration

The increasing frequency of extreme events and the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into modern grids have elevated the need for resilient and efficient critical load restoration strategies in distribution systems. However, the stochastic nature of renewable DERs, limited energy resource availability and the intricate nonlinearities inherent in complex grid control problem make the problem challenging. Although reinforcement learning (RL) and warm-start RL methods have shown promising results, their performance often falls short in rapidly adapting to new, unseen situations and typically requires exhaustive problem-specific tuning. To address these gaps, we propose a First-Order Meta-based RL (FOM-RL) algorithm within an online framework for adaptive and robust critical load restoration. By harnessing local DERs as the enabling technology, FOM-RL allows the RL agent to swiftly adapt to new unseen scenarios by leveraging previously acquired knowledge of different tasks. Experimental results provide evidence that proposed algorithm learns more efficiently and showcases generalization capabilities across diverse set of operational scenarios. Moreover, a rigorous theoretical analysis yields a tight sublinear regret bound, sensitive to temporal variability, with a task-averaged optimality gap bounded by O(VM+D*/(Tsquare root(M))). These results suggest that optimality improves with task similarity and an increased number of tasks M, reaffirming the efficacy and scalability of the proposed approach in addressing the complexities of critical load restoration in distribution systems.

complexity theory↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analytic insights into nonlocal energy transport. III. steady state Fokker Planck theory in spherical and planar geometry

This paper develops an approximate steady state Fokker Planck theory for energetic electron transport in a spherical laser fusion target. First, we apply the theory to only a small population of electrons, which is specified at the outset. Then, one determines the nonlocal electron energy flux of these electrons at a particular position. These energetic electrons may either come from the tail of the thermal distribution function or be generated by an instability. This paper develops two approximate methods of solution, which we call the “characteristic method” and “sparse eigenfunction.” The former works only in planar geometry and the latter in both planar and spherical geometry. Comparison of the two methods in planar geometry shows that even though the approximations are very different, they give about the same result, increasing their credibility. For the example we have chosen, spherical effects are not important for electrons from the tail of the distribution function but may well be for instability generated electrons, which have much higher energy. Comparing planar to spherical, one finds an additional spherical barrier protecting the fuel. It turns out that the associated fuel preheat a Fokker Planck model predicts is considerably less than that predicted by the Krook models as developed at both NRL and other places.

Manheimer, Wallace (ORCID:0000000163342591)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calomplification — the power of generative calorimeter models

Motivated by the high computational costs of classical simulations, machine-learned generative models can be extremely useful in particle physics and elsewhere. They become especially attractive when surrogate models can efficiently learn the underlying distribution, such that a generated sample outperforms a training sample of limited size. This kind of GANplification has been observed for simple Gaussian models. We show the same effect for a physics simulation, specifically photon showers in an electromagnetic calorimeter.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation Tests of the Gamma Library of the ARC Software Package (Rev.1)

As part of the verification and validation (V&V) efforts of the Argonne Reactor Code (ARC) software system to support the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) project of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), work has been performed to verify and validate the gamma (or photon) library of the multigroup cross section generation code MC 2 -3 of the ARC system, which is the essential part of the coupled neutron and gamma heating calculations to determine the heat generation rate or power distribution in the core. This V&V study was carried out in three steps: 1) review of the procedures and utility programs for generating the MC 2 -3 gamma library, 2) verification tests of cross sections and KERMA factors by comparing the total heat generation rate of coupled neutron and gamma calculation with that obtained with reaction Q values under the assumption of local gamma energy deposition and by comparing the prompt heat generation rate with that calculated with the MCNP6.2 code, and 3) validation tests of cross sections and KERMA factors by analyzing the ZPPR-15D gamma dose data measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Inertia Estimation Using Actual Event Measurements: Florida Case

As inverter-based resources’ integration in power grids increases, their uneven distribution across the electrical network leads to the formation of local regions that are weakly coupled to the larger interconnection. This signifies the necessity of regional frequency dynamics investigation and analyzing various inertia metrics. This paper presents a practical methodology for estimating regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) using actual event recordings, which is then used to evaluate regional inertia. Florida (FL) is selected as the region of interest due to its distinct regional frequency dynamics and the rising levels of solar generation. We identify and analyze confirmed events from 2017 to 2024 that occurred in FL. The results indicate that FL contributes about 14% to the total inertia of the US Eastern Interconnection, which approximately matches its share of generation capacity. Results also highlight seasonal fluctuations in energy generation, which play a significant role in influencing inertia and thus the RoCoF levels. This emphasizes the importance of estimating regional inertia to enhance grid operations for a future that focuses on distributed generation.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Distribution Planning

The contemporary distribution planning landscape is comprised of an increasing number of factors that require integration into the engineering of the modern electric grid. Expectations for electric utilities to accommodate heightened awareness of stakeholders' interest in things like decarbonization, resilience and equity are growing. As these interests are formed into objectives, many jurisdictions will experience increasing levels of load modifying technologies like DER, building and industrial electrification and electric vehicles which prove not only to challenge the capabilities of the grid; but the processes by which planning for it is traditionally done. Other related factors that strain the conventional distribution planning mold are the swelling amount and sources of data associated with these technologies and the need it creates for improved capabilities in the processes and tools that manage it. As the complexity of the distribution system expands, so will the distribution system's effects on the transmission and generation systems that it is a part of. Forecasting distribution system load and DER are examples of areas where this complexity will manifest, and harmonizing distribution forecasting with transmission and generation forecasting requires higher amounts of intentionality as these typically separate processes become a solitary one. Of course, core activities do not cease as a utility begins to integrate these other factors, and in this webinar we explore specifics of how distribution planning can be expected to evolve as progress towards Integrated Distribution System Planning is made.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Power Application Developer’s Guide to the Common Information Model: An Introduction for Power Systems Engineers and Application Developers – CIM17v40

A key issue in creating the next generation of energy management system (EMS) and advanced distribution management system (ADMS) platforms will be the ability to represent and exchange power system network model data in a consistent manner. To this end, the Common Information Model (CIM) stands out as the only standardized vocabulary (or ontology) for defining power system network models and asset data in a comprehensive, consistent manner across the generation-transmission-distribution boundary. The CIM is freely available to use and extend. The CIM is maintained by the UCAiug (informally known as the CIM User’s Group) under an Apache 2.0 license. The CIM Users Group collaborates with the IEC and other standards communities for the development of technical and informative specifications. Although portions of the information model are referred to by the corresponding IEC standards naming, it is not necessary to purchase any of the IEC standards to use the CIM information model. This document provides a roadmap for power system engineers and application developers not familiar with semantic modeling to start using the CIM for modeling, simulation, optimization, and development of advanced power applications. The key classes needed for defining power system topology and equipment are explained systematically. Key focus areas include modeling of lines, transformers, generators, switching equipment, loads, and distributed energy resources (DERs).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
DOE OSTI2025

An efficient surrogate model of secondary electron formation and evolution

This work extends the adjoint-deep learning framework for runaway electron (RE) evolution, developed by McDevitt et al. [Phys. Plasmas 32, 042503 (2025)], to account for large-angle collisions. By incorporating large-angle collisions, the framework allows the avalanche of REs to be captured, an essential component of RE dynamics. This extension is accomplished by using a Rosenbluth–Putvinski approximation to estimate the distribution of secondary electrons generated by large-angle collisions. By evolving both the primary and multiple generations of secondary electrons, the present formulation can capture both the detailed temporal evolution of a RE population beginning from an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution, along with providing approximations to the saturated growth and decay rates of the RE population. Predictions of the adjoint-deep learning framework are verified against a traditional RE solver, with good agreement present across a broad range of parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Situational awareness-enhancing community-level load mapping with opportunistic machine learning

Motivated by present and forthcoming challenges in the adoption and integration of distributed renewable energy, we develop a machine learning (ML) approach that builds short-fuse mappings connecting the occasionally-unobservable true load in one target community with information-rich signals collected from relatively more instrumented reference communities. Our setting is inspired by and tailored to target communities with significant unobservable behind-the-meter solar generation, where true load (a relatively well-behaved quantity of interest to grid operators) is hard to discern during daytime due to insufficient instrumentation and/or privacy reasons, but that can be related to reference communities with low unobservable distributed variable generation or with sufficient instrumentation. The developed mapping, herein realized with Support Vector Machine regression, is built using nighttime data from all communities, when their distributed generation is low or zero. Our ML algorithm opportunistically learns to correlate signals of interest and then is operationally used the next day to shed light into target community load evolution. The mapping is subsequently rebuilt, rolling its short-fuse scope perpetually forward in time. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on nine synthetically generated topologies and associated timeseries stemming from real-world data, on which we observe cumulative error performance that yields lower than 10% and 15% daily-averaged mean absolute percentage errors in target community load estimation on more than about 75% and 90% of days, respectively, in multiple yearly evaluations that shed light on long-term performance also under seasonal and one-off effects. The proposed ML-powered methodology can offer grid operators much-improved visibility into a previously obscure space and can also serve as an additional source of information in broader, multi-modal solar disaggregation solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Considerations for a Medium-Voltage DC Electrolysis Testbed

Here we present the results of a study focused on the feasibility of using Medium Voltage DC (MVDC) power distribution from wind power generation to electrolyzers for hydrogen production. This approach, using hybrid energy generation in a MVDC microgrid, offers many advantages. These include possible improvements in efficiency, reliability and installation cost compared to a more typical state-of-the-art AC distribution configuration. It also eliminates the need for transformers, which have recently been subject to price volatility and availability concerns. This study highlights the practical feasibility of MVDC distribution networks for integrating various energy sources, offering improved efficiency and reduced system complexity compared to conventional AC-based solutions. Future work will focus on enhancing fault protection strategies, scaling the system to larger renewable installations, and conducting hardware implementation at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Flatirons Campus (FC). In the sections that follow we show that a DC Collection and Distribution System (DC CDS) reduces the losses associated with the electrical conversion / distribution process relative to a state-of-the-art AC approach, improving overall efficiency by 5%. On the qualitative side, reducing the number of conversion stages is likely to improve reliability, reduce capital investment cost, and enable simpler control algorithms to be used, and reduced risk of instabilities and malfunctions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

DUET - Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport: A mechanistic model of leaf litter and herbaceous spatial distribution based on tree canopy structure

Heterogeneity in surface fuels produced by overstory trees and understory vegetation is a major driver of fire behavior and ecosystem dynamics. Previous attempts at predicting tree leaf and needle litter accumulation over time have been constrained in scope to probabilistic models that consider a limited number of key factors influencing tree litter dispersal patterns and decomposition processes. Here we present a mechanistic model for estimating variation in surface fuels called the Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport (DUET). DUET uses a pre-generated voxelated canopy array and distributes the leaf litter from the trees in an elliptical shape based on tree species characteristics, wind data, and location-specific features. DUET then calculates grass growth between trees and around the litter patterns and sets moisture levels based on relative humidity. In this study, we use DUET to simulate spatial distributions of leaf litter and illustrate model sensitivity to several parameters, providing inputs for testing fuel spatial heterogeneity impacts on fire behavior using process-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Density and Magnetic Field Asymmetric Kelvin‐Helmholtz Instability

Abstract The Kelvin‐Helmholtz (KH) instability can transport mass, momentum, magnetic flux, and energy between the magnetosheath and magnetosphere, which plays an important role in the solar‐wind‐magnetosphere coupling process for different planets. Meanwhile, strong density and magnetic field asymmetry are often present between the magnetosheath (MSH) and magnetosphere (MSP), which could affect the transport processes driven by the KH instability. Our magnetohydrodynamics simulation shows that the KH growth rate is insensitive to the density ratio between the MSP and the MSH in the compressible regime, which is different than the prediction from linear incompressible theory. When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is parallel to the planet's magnetic field, the nonlinear KH instability can drive a double mid‐latitude reconnection (DMLR) process. The total double reconnected flux depends on the KH wavelength and the strength of the lower magnetic field. When the IMF is anti‐parallel to the planet's magnetic field, the nonlinear interaction between magnetic reconnection and the KH instability leads to fast reconnection (i.e., close to Petschek reconnection even without including kinetic physics). However, the peak value of the reconnection rate still follows the asymmetric reconnection scaling laws. We also demonstrate that the DMLR process driven by the KH instability mixes the plasma from different regions and consequently generates different types of velocity distribution functions. We show that the counter‐streaming beams can be simply generated via the change of the flux tube connection and do not require parallel electric fields.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improve Learning from Crowds via Generative Augmentation

Crowdsourcing provides an efficient label collection schema for supervised machine learning. However, to control annotation cost, each instance in the crowdsourced data is typically annotated by a small number of annotators. This creates a sparsity issue and limits the quality of machine learning models trained on such data. In this paper, we study how to handle sparsity in crowdsourced data using data augmentation. Specifically, we propose to directly learn a classifier by augmenting the raw sparse annotations. We implement two principles of high-quality augmentation using Generative Adversarial Networks: 1) the generated annotations should follow the distribution of authentic ones, which is measured by a discriminator; 2) the generated annotations should have high mutual information with the ground-truth labels, which is measured by an auxiliary network. Extensive experiments and comparisons against an array of state-of-the-art learning from crowds methods on three real-world datasets proved the effectiveness of our data augmentation framework. It shows the potential of our algorithm for low-budget crowdsourcing in general.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Event-driven readout development: testing of the EDWARD65P1 chip with integrated event generators

Building on a prototype readout integrated circuit for segmented silicon sensors with the EDWARD event-driven readout architecture, the front-end in each pixel was replaced by a hardware generator to verify readout performance, ensuring no data loss, consistent priority handling, and speed verification. Here, this generator produces Poisson-distributed readout requests with individually tunable rates per pixel via a digitally controlled oscillator. The resulting EDWARD65P1 test ASIC is a 32×32 pixel matrix with a 100 μm pitch, equipped with digital event generators simulating radiation hits at user-defined rates. Test results for this new design are presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗