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Implications of Simulation Conceptual Model Development for Simulation Management and Uncertainty Assessment

A simulation conceptual model is a simulation developers way of translating modeling requirements (i. e., what is to be represented by the simulation or its modification) into a detailed design framework (i. e., how it is to be done), from which the software, hardware, networks (in the case of distributed simulation), and systems/equipment that will make up the simulation can be built or modified. A conceptual model is the collection of information which describes a simulation developers concept about the simulation and its pieces. That information consists of assumptions, algorithms, characteristics, relationships, and data. Taken together, these describe how the simulation developer understands what is to be represented by the simulation (entities, actions, tasks, processes, interactions, etc.) and how that representation will satisfy the requirements to which the simulation responds. Thus the conceptual model is the basis for judgment about simulation fidelity and validity for any condition that is not specifically tested. The more perspicuous and precise the conceptual model, the more likely it is that the simulation development will both fully satisfy requirements and allow demonstration that the requirements are satisfied (i. e., validation). Methods used in simulation conceptual model development have significant implications for simulation management and for assessment of simulation uncertainty. This paper suggests how to develop and document a simulation conceptual model so that the simulation fidelity and validity can be most effectively determined. These ideas for conceptual model development apply to all simulation varieties. The paper relates these ideas to uncertainty assessments as they relate to simulation fidelity and validity. The paper also explores implications for simulation management from conceptual model development methods, especially relative to reuse of simulation components.

Pace, Dale K.↗

Structured Course Objects in a Digital Library

We are developing an Undergraduate Digital Library Framework (UDLF) that will support creation/archiving of courses and reuse of existing course material to evolve courses. UDLF supports the publication of course materials for later instantiation for a specific offering and allows the addition of time-dependent and student-specific information and structures. Instructors and, depending on permissions, students can access the general course materials or the materials for a specific offering. We are building a reference implementation based on NCSTRL+, a digital library derived from NCSTRL. Digital objects in NCSTRL+ are called buckets, self-contained entities that carry their own methods for access and display. Current bucket implementations have a two level structure of packages and elements. This is not a rich enough structure for course objects in UDLF. Typically, courses can only be modeled as a multilevel hierarchy and among different courses, both the syntax and semantics of terms may vary. Therefore, we need a mechanism to define, within a particular library, course models, their constituent objects, and the associated semantics in a flexible, extensible way. In this paper, we describe our approach to define and implement these multilayered course objects. We use XML technology to emulate complex data structures within the NCSTRL+ buckets. We have developed authoring and browsing tools to manipulate these course objects. In our current implementation a user downloading an XML based course bucket also downloads the XML-aware tools: an applet that enables the user to edit or browse the bucket. We claim that XML provides an effective means to represent multi-level structure of a course bucket.

Maly, K.↗

Reusability First: Toward FAIR Workflows

The FAIR principles of open science (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) have had transformative effects on modern large-scale computational science. In particular, they have encouraged more open access to and use of data, an important consideration as collaboration among teams of researchers accelerates and the use of workflows by those teams to solve problems increases. How best to apply the FAIR principles to workflows themselves, and software more generally, is not yet well understood. We argue that the software engineering concept of technical debt management provides a useful guide for application of those principles to workflows, and in particular that it implies reusability should be considered as ‘first among equals’. Moreover, our approach recognizes a continuum of reusability where we can make explicit and selectable the tradeoffs required in workflows for both their users and developers.To this end, we propose a new abstraction approach for reusable workflows, with demonstrations for both synthetic workloads and real-world computational biology workflows. Through application of novel systems and tools that are based on this abstraction, these experimental workflows are refactored to rightsize the granularity of workflow components to efficiently fill the gap between end-user simplicity and general customizability. Our work makes it easier to selectively reason about and automate the connections between trade-offs across user and developer concerns when exposing degrees of freedom for reuse. Additionally, by exposing fine-grained reusability abstractions we enable performance optimizations, as we demonstrate on both institutional-scale and leadership-class HPC resources.

Wolf, Matthew↗

Evolution of a Reconfigurable Processing Platform for a Next Generation Space Software Defined Radio

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)Harris Ka-Band Software Defined Radio (SDR) is the first, fully reprogrammable space-qualified SDR operating in the Ka-Band frequency range. Providing exceptionally higher data communication rates than previously possible, this SDR offers in-orbit reconfiguration, multi-waveform operation, and fast deployment due to its highly modular hardware and software architecture. Currently in operation on the International Space Station (ISS), this new paradigm of reconfigurable technology is enabling experimenters to investigate navigation and networking in the space environment.The modular SDR and the NASA developed Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) architecture standard are the basis for Harris reusable, digital signal processing space platform trademarked as AppSTAR. As a result, two new space radio products are a synthetic aperture radar payload and an Automatic Detection Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) receiver. In addition, Harris is currently developing many new products similar to the Ka-Band software defined radio for other applications. For NASAs next generation flight Ka-Band radio development, leveraging these advancements could lead to a more robust and more capable software defined radio.The space environment has special considerations different from terrestrial applications that must be considered for any system operated in space. Each space mission has unique requirements that can make these systems unique. These unique requirements can make products that are expensive and limited in reuse. Space systems put a premium on size, weight and power. A key trade is the amount of reconfigurability in a space system. The more reconfigurable the hardware platform, the easier it is to adapt to the platform to the next mission, and this reduces the amount of non-recurring engineering costs. However, the more reconfigurable platforms often use more spacecraft resources. Software has similar considerations to hardware. Having an architecture standard promotes reuse of software and firmware. Space platforms have limited processor capability, which makes the trade on the amount of amount of flexibility paramount.

Telecommunication↗

The Glory Program: Global Science from a Unique Spacecraft Integration

The Glory program is an Earth and Solar science mission designed to broaden science community knowledge of the environment. The causes and effects of global warming have become a concern in recent years and Glory aims to contribute to the knowledge base of the science community. Glory is designed for two functions: one is solar viewing to monitor the total solar irradiance and the other is observing the Earth s atmosphere for aerosol composition. The former is done with an active cavity radiometer, while the latter is accomplished with an aerosol polarimeter sensor to discern atmospheric particles. The Glory program is managed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with Orbital Sciences in Dulles, VA as the prime contractor for the spacecraft bus, mission operations, and ground system. This paper will describe some of the more unique features of the Glory program including the integration and testing of the satellite and instruments as well as the science data processing. The spacecraft integration and test approach requires extensive analysis and additional planning to ensure existing components are successfully functioning with the new Glory components. The science mission data analysis requires development of mission unique processing systems and algorithms. Science data analysis and distribution will utilize our national assets at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP). The Satellite was originally designed and built for the Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL) mission, which was terminated in the middle of integration and testing due to payload development issues. The bus was then placed in secure storage in 2001 and removed from an environmentally controlled container in late 2003 to be refurbished to meet the Glory program requirements. Functional testing of all the components was done as a system at the start of the program, very different from a traditional program. The plan for Glory is to minimize any changes to the spacecraft in order to meet the Glory requirements. This means that the instrument designs must adhere to the existing interfaces and capabilities as much as possible. Given Glory's unique history and the potential science return, the program is one of significant value to both the science community and the world. The findings Glory promises will improve our understanding of the drivers for global climate change for a minimal investment. The program hopes to show that reuse of existing government assets can result in a lower cost, and fully successful mission.

Bajpayee Jaya↗

Structural Dynamics Observations in Space Launch System Green Run Hot Fire Testing

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage (CS) Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system is comprised of eight mechanical feedback Shuttle heritage Type III TVC actuators and four RS-25 engines, each attached to a Shuttle heritage gimbal block/bearing. Two actuators are used to move each engine in two planes perpendicular to one another (i.e., pitch and yaw). The TVC system design leverages hardware from the Space Shuttle program as well as new hardware designed specifically for the Core Stage. The Green Run Hot Fire (GRHF) of the SLS Core Stage provided a flight-like ground test environment for verification of integrated vehicle TVC performance. A TVC model coupled to a vehicle structural dynamic model has been developed previously and incrementally validated in subsystem tests and simulations. Still, some aspects of TVC performance in GRHF were not anticipated. The ensuing investigation demonstrated the need for well-instrumented test environments, various levels of modeling fidelity, test-representative structural models, and caution in reuse of legacy components. This paper is the sixth installment in a seven-paper series surveying the design, engineering, test validation, and flight performance of the Core Stage Thrust Vector Control system. It introduces the salient structural dynamic phenomena uncovered in ambient and hot fire testing. During the Green Run test campaign, a comparison of ambient and hot fire step responses showed a significant change in apparent damping due to the presence of friction, challenging long standing assumptions that friction could be neglected. Additionally, the characteristic response of the engine and thrust structure during GRHF proved to be more complex than anticipated, as evidenced by the available actuator, thrust structure, and engine measurements. While the string-potentiometer based test instrumentation was intended to allow for reconstruction of the engine angles along the two control axes, the geometric placement, location uncertainty, and responses in overlapping frequency spectra revealed additional phenomena requiring further analysis and post-processing. The observations from both modal and frequency response testing during the Green Run ambient and hot fire configurations led to Engine and Core Stage FEM (finite element model) updates. When evidence of unexpected engine motion was found in engine section accelerometer data, the authors pursued additional structural analysis leading to FEM updates associated with the TVC gimbal and thrust structure. Through collaboration between structures, TVC, and flight control disciplines, the test-informed models and root-cause analysis led to confident flight rationale for the first flight of the SLS launch vehicle.

Richard K. Moore↗

Structural Dynamics Observations in Space Launch System Green Run Hot Fire Testing

The Space Launch System (SLS) Core Stage (CS) Thrust Vector Control (TVC) system is comprised of eight mechanical feedback Shuttle heritage Type III TVC actuators and four RS-25 engines, each attached to a Shuttle heritage gimbal block/bearing. Two actuators are used to move each engine in two planes perpendicular to one another (i.e., pitch and yaw). The TVC system design leverages hardware from the Space Shuttle program as well as new hardware designed specifically for the Core Stage. The Green Run Hot Fire (GRHF) of the SLS Core Stage provided a flight-like ground test environment for verification of integrated vehicle TVC performance. A TVC model coupled to a vehicle structural dynamic model has been developed previously and incrementally validated in subsystem tests and simulations. Still, some aspects of TVC performance in GRHF were not anticipated. The ensuing investigation demonstrated the need for well-instrumented test environments, various levels of modeling fidelity, test-representative structural models, and caution in reuse of legacy components. This paper is the sixth installment in a seven-paper series surveying the design, engineering, test validation, and flight performance of the Core Stage Thrust Vector Control system. It introduces the salient structural dynamic phenomena uncovered in ambient and hot fire testing. During the Green Run test campaign, a comparison of ambient and hot fire step responses showed a significant change in apparent damping due to the presence of friction, challenging long standing assumptions that friction could be neglected. Additionally, the characteristic response of the engine and thrust structure during GRHF proved to be more complex than anticipated, as evidenced by the available actuator, thrust structure, and engine measurements. While the string-potentiometer based test instrumentation was intended to allow for reconstruction of the engine angles along the two control axes, the geometric placement, location uncertainty, and responses in overlapping frequency spectra revealed additional phenomena requiring further analysis and post-processing. The observations from both modal and frequency response testing during the Green Run ambient and hot fire configurations led to Engine and Core Stage FEM (finite element model) updates. When evidence of unexpected engine motion was found in engine section accelerometer data, the authors pursued additional structural analysis leading to FEM updates associated with the TVC gimbal and thrust structure. Through collaboration between structures, TVC, and flight control disciplines, the test-informed models and root-cause analysis led to confident flight rationale for the first flight of the SLS launch vehicle.

Richard Moore↗

XML: James Webb Space Telescope Database Issues, Lessons, and Status

This paper will present the current concept using extensible Markup Language (XML) as the underlying structure for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) database. The purpose of using XML is to provide a JWST database, independent of any portion of the ground system, yet still compatible with the various systems using a variety of different structures. The testing of the JWST Flight Software (FSW) started in 2002, yet the launch is scheduled for 2011 with a planned 5-year mission and a 5-year follow on option. The initial database and ground system elements, including the commands, telemetry, and ground system tools will be used for 19 years, plus post mission activities. During the Integration and Test (I&T) phases of the JWST development, 24 distinct laboratories, each geographically dispersed, will have local database tools with an XML database. Each of these laboratories database tools will be used for the exporting and importing of data both locally and to a central database system, inputting data to the database certification process, and providing various reports. A centralized certified database repository will be maintained by the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI), in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. One of the challenges for the database is to be flexible enough to allow for the upgrade, addition or changing of individual items without effecting the entire ground system. Also, using XML should allow for the altering of the import and export formats needed by the various elements, tracking the verification/validation of each database item, allow many organizations to provide database inputs, and the merging of the many existing database processes into one central database structure throughout the JWST program. Many National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) projects have attempted to take advantage of open source and commercial technology. Often this causes a greater reliance on the use of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS), which is often limiting. In our review of the database requirements and the COTS software available, only very expensive COTS software will meet 90% of requirements. Even with the high projected initial cost of COTS, the development and support for custom code over the 19-year mission period was forecasted to be higher than the total licensing costs. A group did look at reusing existing database tools and formats. If the JWST database was already in a mature state, the reuse made sense, but with the database still needing to handing the addition of different types of command and telemetry structures, defining new spacecraft systems, accept input and export to systems which has not been defined yet, XML provided the flexibility desired. It remains to be determined whether the XML database will reduce the over all cost for the JWST mission.

Detter, Ryan↗

Analysis and Design for Sustainable Circularity of Barrier Films Used in Sheet Molding Composites Production

Sheet molding composites (SMC) are thermoset based molding compounds with a global market size of USD 2.1 billion in 2020. SMC is usually processed with multilayer barrier/carrier films to prevent emissions from volatile organic compounds (VOC). The plastic barriers are separated from SMC after the curing process and discarded. To illustrate the high consumption volume of SMC barrier/carrier films, Kohler Co., a company which uses SMC in their bath and showering product lines, alone generates over 1M lb/year of SMC barrier/carrier film waste. Therefore, high amount of SMC barrier/carrier film plastic waste creates a great opportunity for reusing, recycling, or valorization at its end of life. This can be achieved through transition from a linear to a circular supply chain design. However, this transition will not be feasible without overcoming the technical and economic barriers. This project aims to tackle this by making the film circular. Different end of life alternatives will be evaluated experimentally. The reusability of the film will be studied through applying different mechanical and solvent cleaning techniques. The operability concerns regarding the utilization of the cleaned film for long run operations will be addressed by thermally stitching the film. Pelletizing of the cleaned film will also be investigated as a viable technique for recycling or downcycling of the film as molded products. In addition to technical barriers, designing a sustainable circular supply chain for SMC carrier film products requires uncovering the collaboration opportunities between suppliers and users at different stages of the value chain to expand its use to other products. These opportunities will be investigated by finding companies willing to buy or treat the plastic film waste. Finally, the economic viability and environmental impacts of these circular design alternatives will be evaluated through techno-economic assessment (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA). Techno-economic and life cycle inventory data for various pathways will also be made available as one of the main outcomes of this project. Preliminary LCA results indicate that the current SMC film supply chain (base case) emits 5.81 tonne CO2 eq. and consumes 104 GJ energy per tonne of SMC film. It is estimated that alternative circular pathways result in 14-20% less CO2 emissions and 34-44% reduction in embodied energy. This project will develop a tool to analyze the circularity and sustainability of hundreds of combinations of alternatives in different life cycle stages. Users of this tool will be able to choose the best combination among these alternatives with respect to the selected economic, environmental and circularity objectives.

circular economy↗

Virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance profiles of Campylobacter isolates recovered from consecutively reused broiler litter

ABSTRACT Campylobacterinfections are a leading cause of bacterial diarrhea in humans globally. Infections are due to consumption of contaminated food products and are highly associated with chicken meat, with chickens being an important reservoir forCampylobacter. Here, we characterized the genetic diversity ofCampylobacter jejuni(C. jejuni) andCampylobacter coli(C. coli) detected in broiler chicken litter over three consecutive flocks and determined their antimicrobial resistance (ARM) and virulence factor (VF) profiles.Campylobacterwas detected in 9.38% (27/288) of litter samples collected. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole genome sequencing were performed onC. jejuni(n= 39) andC. coli(n= 5) isolates.Campylobactervirulence factors differed within and across broiler houses but were explained by the broiler flock cohort raised on litter,Campylobacterspecies andCampylobactermultilocus sequence type (MLST). Virulence factors involved in the ability to invade and colonize host tissues and evade host defenses were present inC. jejuniisolates (ST-464) from flock cohorts 1 and 2 but absent inC. jejuniisolates (ST-48) from flock cohort 3.C. jejuniisolates from house three harbored a significantly higher proportion of virulence genes with functions related to glycosylation and immune evasion thanC. jejuniisolates from houses 1 and 2 (P< 0.01). AllC. jejuniisolates were susceptible to all antibiotics tested whileC. coli(n= 4) were resistant to tetracycline and harbored the tetracycline resistant ribosomal protection protein (TetO). Our results suggest that house environment and broiler management practices imposed selective pressures on virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance genes ofCampylobacter. IMPORTANCE Campylobacteris a leading cause of foodborne illness in the United States due to consumption of contaminated or mishandled food products, often associated with chicken meat.Campylobacteris common in the microbiota of avian and mammalian gut; however, acquisition of antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) and virulence factors (VFs) may result in strains that pose significant threat to public health. Although there are studies investigating the genetic diversity ofCampylobacterstrains isolated from post-harvest chicken samples, there are limited data on the genome characteristics of isolates recovered from preharvest broiler production. Here, we show thatCampylobacter jejuniandCampylobacter colidiffer in their carriage of antimicrobial resistance and virulence factors may also differ in their ability to persist in litter during consecutive grow-out of broiler flocks. We found that presence/absence of virulence factors needed for evasion of host defense mechanisms and gut colonization played an integral role in differentiatingCampylobacterstrains.

Microbiology↗

Clean Water Production in Cooling Towers

This project developed and demonstrated a novel technology that produces clean water from cooling tower recirculating water by using the natural evaporation and condensation cycle inside cooling towers. The system captures the escaping plume and converts blowdown quality water into high purity water suitable for on-site reuse such as boiler feed. The technology uses electric fields to ionize exhaust plumes, charge the entrained droplets, and direct them toward collection electrodes where they coalesce and flow downward. This allows water recovery at a low energy cost while reducing visible plume emissions. In addition, we developed a complementary software platform that improves overall cooling tower performance. The system uses wireless sensors and physics-based machine learning algorithms to optimize key parameters of the cooling process. For power generation facilities, this increases the thermal efficiency of the cooling loop and condenser, resulting in measurable cycle efficiency gains. Improvements of one percent or more can deliver significant increases in electricity production for the same fuel input.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effect of Environment on the Stress- Rupture Behavior of a C/SiC Composite Studied

Advanced reusable launch vehicles will likely incorporate fiber-reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMC's) in critical propulsion and airframe components. The use of CMC's is highly desirable to save weight, improve reuse capability, and increase performance. One of the candidate CMC materials is carbon-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC). In potential propulsion applications, such as turbopump rotors and nozzle exit ramps, C/SiC components will be subjected to a service cycle that includes mechanical loading under complex, high-pressure environments containing hydrogen, oxygen, and steam. Degradation of both the C fibers and the SiC matrix are possible in these environments. The objective of this effort was to evaluate the mechanical behavior of C/SiC in various environments relevant to reusable launch vehicle applications. Stress-rupture testing was conducted at the NASA Glenn Research Center on C/SiC specimens in air and steam-containing environments. Also, the oxidation kinetics of the carbon fibers that reinforce the composite were monitored by thermogravimetric analysis in the same environments and temperatures used for the stress-rupture tests of the C/SiC composite specimens. The stress-rupture lives obtained for C/SiC tested in air and in steam/argon mixtures are shown in the following bar chart. As is typical for most materials, lives obtained at the lower temperature (600 C) are longer than for the higher temperature (1200 C). The effect of environment was most pronounced at the lower temperature, where the average test duration in steam at 600 C was at least 30 times longer than the lives obtained in air. The 1200 C data revealed little difference between the lives of specimens tested in air and steam at atmospheric pressure.

Verrilli, Michael J.↗

Machine learning enables reconstruction of past fire regimes from charcoal-derived fire intensity and fuel composition

Background Fire is a foundational ecological process that shapes ecosystem structure, diversity, and resilience. Quantifying paleofire regime attributes such as frequency, severity, and intensity is essential for understanding the historical range of variability in fire behavior and its ecological effects. While frequency and severity are often reconstructed in paleofire studies, quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity remain limited. Recent work has shown that maximum pyrolysis temperature—a proxy for fire intensity—and plant species type can be inferred from charcoal using transmission Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. However, the sample preparation for transmission FTIR is destructive and time-consuming, limiting application and reuse of materials for other analyses. We evaluated reflectance FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive alternative for reconstructing combustion temperature and plant species from laboratory-generated charcoal. We also examined the influence of contrasting airflow environments (ambient air versus nitrogen-rich) on pyrolysis temperature and plant species reconstruction prediction accuracies and compared predictive performance between a novel, neural network–based deep learning model with the traditional modern analogue technique (MAT) using k-nearest neighbor functions. As proof of concept, we apply our enhanced methodology to ancient charcoal to demonstrate applicability at improving long-term fire regime reconstructions and the ability to link paleofire records with contemporary fire ecology. Results Our analysis shows that transmission and reflectance FTIR spectra yield comparable spectral profiles. However, sample preparation for reflectance FTIR is minimal and non-destructive, unlike transmission FTIR which is destructive. We demonstrate that oxygen environments improved reconstruction accuracy relative to nitrogen-rich conditions. Finally, our deep learning neural network (DL) achieved testing accuracies of 98.7% for temperature and 96.2% for species identification, outperforming MAT’s k-NN approach (89.8% and 65.9%, respectively). A Shapley importance analysis identified 5 key spectral regions that greatly influenced the model’s temperature or species categorization. When applied to ancient charcoal, our results show historic fires from the most recent past primarily burned at low intensities (400–500 °C), reflective of natural fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Our results corroborate charcoal morphology data that suggests all ancient charcoal originated from burned woody plant types. Conclusions By combining reflectance FTIR spectroscopy with a deep learning approach, we provide the first accuracies high enough to confidently identify both species and temperature from laboratory-produced charcoal, improving quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity and fuel composition from paleofire records. This opens a wide range of research into the link between fire and larger drivers (i.e., climate or human) and greater ecological understanding of fire regimes beyond that of burn scars or recent observations. These methodological improvements have direct relevance for fire management by improving interpretation of historical fire behavior, informing fuel–fire relationships, and providing a scalable analytical framework applicable to both long-term ecological studies and contemporary fire science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Efficient Launch Vehicle Recovery and Reuse

For decades, economic reuse of launch vehicles has been an elusive goal. Recent attempts at demonstrating elements of launch vehicle recovery for reuse have invigorated a debate over the merits of different approaches. The parameter most often used to assess the cost of access to space is dollars-per-kilogram to orbit. When comparing reusable vs. expendable launch vehicles, that ratio has been shown to be most sensitive to the performance lost as a result of enabling the reusability. This paper will briefly review the historical background and results of recent attempts to recover launch vehicle assets for reuse. The business case for reuse will be reviewed, with emphasis on the performance expended to recover those assets, and the practicality of the most ambitious reuse concept, namely propulsive return to the launch site. In 2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA) announced its Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) reuse plan for recovery of the booster module for its new Vulcan launch vehicle. That plan employs a non-propulsive approach where atmospheric entry, descent and landing (EDL) technologies are utilized. Elements of such a system have a wide variety of applications, from recovery of launch vehicle elements in suborbital trajectories all the way to human space exploration. This paper will include an update on ULA's booster module recovery approach, which relies on Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) and Mid-Air Retrieval (MAR) technologies, including its concept of operations (ConOps). The HIAD design, as well as parafoil staging and MAR concepts, will be discussed. Recent HIAD development activities and near term plans including scalability, next generation materials for the inflatable structure and heat shield, and gas generator inflation systems will be provided. MAR topics will include the ConOps for recovery, helicopter selection and staging, and the state of the art of parachute recovery systems using large parafoils for space asset recovery and high altitude deployment. The next proposed HIAD flight demonstration is called HULA (for HIAD on ULA), and will feature a 6m diameter HIAD. An update for the HULA concept will be provided in this paper. As proposed, this demonstration will fly as a secondary payload on an Atlas mission. The Centaur upper stage provides the reentry pointing, deorbit burn, and entry vehicle spin up. The flight test will culminate with a recovery of the HIAD using MAR. HULA will provide data from a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) return aeroheating environment that enables predictive model correlation and refinement. The resultant reduction in performance uncertainties should lead to design efficiencies that are increasingly significant at larger scales. Relevance to human scale Mars EDL using a HIAD will also be presented, and the applicability of the data generated from both HULA and SMART Vulcan flights, and its value for NASA's human exploration efforts will be discussed. A summary and conclusion will follow.

Reed, John G.↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA's Software Safety Standard

NASA relies more and more on software to control, monitor, and verify its safety critical systems, facilities and operations. Since the 1960's there has hardly been a spacecraft launched that does not have a computer on board that will provide command and control services. There have been recent incidents where software has played a role in high-profile mission failures and hazardous incidents. For example, the Mars Orbiter, Mars Polar Lander, the DART (Demonstration of Autonomous Rendezvous Technology), and MER (Mars Exploration Rover) Spirit anomalies were all caused or contributed to by software. The Mission Control Centers for the Shuttle, ISS, and unmanned programs are highly dependant on software for data displays, analysis, and mission planning. Despite this growing dependence on software control and monitoring, there has been little to no consistent application of software safety practices and methodology to NASA's projects with safety critical software. Meanwhile, academia and private industry have been stepping forward with procedures and standards for safety critical systems and software, for example Dr. Nancy Leveson's book Safeware: System Safety and Computers. The NASA Software Safety Standard, originally published in 1997, was widely ignored due to its complexity and poor organization. It also focused on concepts rather than definite procedural requirements organized around a software project lifecycle. Led by NASA Headquarters Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, the NASA Software Safety Standard has recently undergone a significant update. This new standard provides the procedures and guidelines for evaluating a project for safety criticality and then lays out the minimum project lifecycle requirements to assure the software is created, operated, and maintained in the safest possible manner. This update of the standard clearly delineates the minimum set of software safety requirements for a project without detailing the implementation for those requirements. This allows the projects leeway to meet these requirements in many forms that best suit a particular project's needs and safety risk. In other words, it tells the project what to do, not how to do it. This update also incorporated advances in the state of the practice of software safety from academia and private industry. It addresses some of the more common issues now facing software developers in the NASA environment such as the use of Commercial-Off-the-Shelf Software (COTS), Modified OTS (MOTS), Government OTS (GOTS), and reused software. A team from across NASA developed the update and it has had both NASA-wide internal reviews by software engineering, quality, safety, and project management. It has also had expert external review. This presentation and paper will discuss the new NASA Software Safety Standard, its organization, and key features. It will start with a brief discussion of some NASA mission failures and incidents that had software as one of their root causes. It will then give a brief overview of the NASA Software Safety Process. This will include an overview of the key personnel responsibilities and functions that must be performed for safety-critical software.

Ramsay, Christopher M.↗