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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Projected increase in summer heat-dome-like stationary waves over Northwestern North America

Heat-dome-like stationary waves often lead to extreme heat events, such as the unprecedented heatwave in Northwestern North America during the summer of 2021. However, future changes in summer stationary waves over Northwestern North America and the underlying driving factors remain unclear. Here, we investigate the projected changes in the anticyclonic stationary wave circulation over Northwestern North America using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and diagnose the circulation changes using a stationary wave model. Our findings reveal a significant 95% increase in the summer stationary wave amplitude over Northwestern North America under the high-emission scenario in 2080–2099 relative to 1995–2014. The response is mainly driven by the diabatic heating changes over the tropical Pacific which induce a Rossby wave source in the northeastern tropical Pacific, and further supported by a northward expanded waveguide in North America, both enhancing wave activity flux into the Northwestern North America. The heat-dome-like stationary wave anomaly is expected to heighten the heatwave risk over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anthropogenic sulfate-climate interactions suppress dust activity over East Asia

Observational evidences indicate a significant decline in dust storm frequencies over the East Asian arid-semiarid region during recent decades, which creates a strong contrast with a great increase in sulfate emissions over monsoonal Asia. However, the causes for decline of dust activities are still controversial. Through conducting a set of idealized sensitivity experiments of regional aerosol perturbations, here we show that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over monsoonal Asia remarkably suppress the regional dust activities over East Asia. Southward shift of Asian westerly jet stream induced by sulfate aerosols results in increasing precipitation and weakening surface wind speeds over the arid-semiarid region, thereby suppressing local dust emission fluxes. Further, the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations indicate that anthropogenic aerosols partly drive the recent weakening in regional dust activities and that future change of regional dust activities will likely depend on emissions scenarios of Asian anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fast physics-based launcher optimization for electron cyclotron current drive

With the increased urgency to design fusion pilot plants, fast optimization of electron cyclotron current drive (ECCD) launchers is paramount. Traditionally, this is done by coarsely sampling the 4D parameter space of possible launch conditions consisting of (1) the launch location (constrained to lie along the reactor vessel), (2) the launch frequency, (3) the toroidal launch angle, and (4) the poloidal launch angle. For each initial condition, a ray-tracing simulation is performed to evaluate the ECCD efficiency. Unfortunately, this approach often requires a large number of simulations (sometimes millions in extreme cases) to build up a dataset that adequately covers the plasma volume, which must then be repeated every time the design point changes. Here we adopt a different approach. Rather than launching rays from the plasma periphery and hoping for the best, we instead directly reconstruct the optimal ray for driving current at a given flux surface using a reduced physics model coupled with a commercial ray-tracing code. Repeating this throughout the plasma volume requires only hundreds of simulations, constituting a significant speedup. The new method is validated on two separate example tokamak profiles, and is shown to reliably drive localized current at the specified flux surface with the same optimal efficiency as obtained from the traditional approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast ion relaxation in ITER mediated by Alfvén instabilities

Abstract We address the critical issue for future burning plasmas of whether high-energy fusion products or auxiliary heating-beam ions will be confined for a sufficiently long time to compensate for thermal plasma energy losses. This issue can be mitigated by one of the most deleterious collective phenomena—the instability of low, sub-cyclotron frequency Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs), such as toroidicity-induced AEs and reversed-shear AEs in the ITER steady-state scenario. Using a revised quasi-linear (QL) theory applied to energetic particle (EP) relaxation in the presence of AEs, we find that the AE instabilities can affect both neutral beam ions and alpha particles, although the resulting fast ion transport is expected to be modest if classical particle slowing down is assumed. On the other hand, the QL theory predicts that the AE amplitudes will be enhanced by the background microturbulence, although this topic remains outside our scope due to the significant numerical effort required to evaluate these effects. We report our results for EP relaxation dynamics obtained utilizing several tools: (i) a comprehensive linear stability study of the sub-cyclotron Alfvénic spectrum as computed by ideal magnetohydrodynamic NOVA simulations for the AE eigenproblem, (ii) drift kinetic NOVA-C calculations for wave–particle interaction and AE growth/damping rates, and (iii) predictive QL modeling coupled with the global transport code TRANSP to assess the EP relaxation on the equilibrium timescale.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reconstruction and interpretation of ionization asymmetry in magnetic confinement via synthetic diagnostics

Abstract Strong poloidal refueling asymmetry in the DIII-D tokamak is inferred from line radiation measurements. Synthetic diagnostics in neutral transport modeling coupled to gyrokinetic simulations illuminate implications for the plasma flow profile in the scrape-off layer of single-null beam-driven discharges. Recycling occurs primarily either on the inner or outer divertor legs, depending on the toroidal magnetic field direction. By reversing the toroidal magnetic field, the observed line radiation asymmetry is nearly eliminated or reversed. It is determined that, while relatively simple physics can describe the observed ionization asymmetry, predicting the overall brightness of the hydrogenic Lyman- α signal requires detailed simulation of the plasma and resulting turbulence. To this end, kinetic plasma simulations fully coupled to comprehensive neutral transport calculations—a novel capability—provide first-principles reproduction of Lyman- α observations on DIII-D.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards self-consistent integrated modeling of the tokamak pedestal, scrape-off layer, and divertor using SOLPS-ITER and EPED

A predictive, self-consistent integrated model of the tokamak edge plasma and neutral system has been developed and validated against experimental data from DIII-D, spanning from the divertor target and scrape-off layer to the top of the pedestal. The model uses the SOLPS-ITER fluid boundary plasma and neutral code to constrain the EPED prediction of the pedestal height and width by taking the separatrix temperature and density calculated from SOLPS as inputs to EPED. An empirical proxy function based on data from a subset of these discharges is then used to infer the ratio of density at the pedestal top to that at the separatrix based on the electron temperature at the divertor target. This allows the density at the top of the pedestal to be provided to EPED as well, so that knowledge of this quantity is no longer required a priori, while SOLPS radial transport coefficients are needed instead. The gas puff rate provided to SOLPS is then a primary model input for this forward model coupling (along with radial transport coefficients, which are kept fixed through each scan in this study). Comparisons with measurements from DIII-D density scans through a range of target conditions find significant pedestal pressure degradation as the density is increased towards detachment in three different divertor configurations, consistent with the experimental data in these ballooning-limited pedestal regimes.

core-edge integration↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intensification of the East Asian summer monsoon lifecycle based on observation and CMIP6

Long-term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) lifecycle since 1979 are analyzed based on observational datasets and historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). According to the observation, the active and break phases of EASM have intensified resulting in a shorter but stronger rainy season, followed by a longer dry spell. This intensification in the active-phase precipitation is accompanied by increased lower tropospheric southwesterly wind and subsequent convergence of water vapor flux. These changes are accompanied by the widely reported westward extension of the North Pacific Subtropical High, which has been associated with the warming climate. CMIP6 models generally underestimated the observed intensification of the EASM lifecycle and the monsoon precipitation. However, some of the models did simulate the intensified EASM lifecycle similar to that observed. The result highlights the reasonable performance on EASM shown in some CMIP6 models and those simulations lend support to a dynamically-driven intensification of the EASM lifecycle in the warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Abstract Seasonal snow is an integral part of the global water supply and storage system. Snow droughts impact ecological, agricultural, and urban systems by altering the amount and timing of meltwater delivery. These droughts are characterized by a lack of on-the-ground snow (snow water equivalent, SWE) that can be caused by low total precipitation (dry drought) or low proportion of precipitation falling as snowfall (warm drought), often combined with an early melt. The standardized SWE index (SWEI) ranks the current status of SWE for a given location compared to a baseline condition and identifies the existence, but not the cause, of snow drought. In this work, we use estimates of SWE, temperature, and precipitation from nine coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to quantify the frequency, severity, and type of snow droughts globally for historical and future scenarios. Compared to a historical baseline (1850–1900) total snow drought frequency more than doubles under socio-economic pathway (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; all of the increase in snow drought frequency comes from an increase in warm droughts. The probability distribution of future SWEI in major snowy basins around the world are likely to be centered on more negative values, which corresponds to more severe drought and, with only moderate changes in distribution spread, more frequent drought. CMIP6 simulations pinpoint snow drought as an emerging global threat to water resources and highlight the need to explore higher resolution future models that better capture complex mountain topography, wildland fires, and snow-forest interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding uncertainties in projections of western North Pacific tropical cyclogenesis

Reliable projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activities in the western North Pacific (WNP) are crucial for climate policy-making in densely-populated coastal Asia. Existing projections, however, exhibit considerable uncertainties with unclear sources. Here, based on future projections by the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models, we identify a new and prevailing source of uncertainty arising from different TC identification schemes. Notable differences in projections of detected TCs and empirical genesis potential indices are found to be caused by inconsistent changes in dynamic and thermodynamic environmental factors affecting TC formations. While model uncertainty holds the secondary importance, we show large potential in reducing it through improved model simulations of present-day TC characteristics. Internal variability noticeably impacts near-term projections of the WNP tropical cyclogenesis, while the relative contribution of scenario uncertainty remains small. Our findings provide valuable insights into model development and TC projections, thereby aiding in adaptation decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intrinsic Thermal Hall Effect in Mott Insulators

Here, in light of recent experimental data indicating a substantial thermal Hall effect in square lattice antiferromagnetic Mott insulators, we investigate whether a simple Mott insulator can sustain a finite thermal Hall effect. We verify that the answer is “no” if one performs calculations within a spin-only low-energy effective spin model with noninteracting magnons. However, by performing determinant quantum Monte Carlo simulations, we show the single-band 𝑡−𝑡′−𝑈 Hubbard model coupled to an orbital magnetic field does support a finite thermal Hall effect when 𝑡′ ≠0 and 𝐵 ≠0 in the Mott insulating phase. We argue that the (carrier agnostic) necessary conditions for observing a finite thermal Hall effect are time-reversal and particle-hole symmetry breaking. By considering magnon-magnon scattering using a semiclassical Boltzmann analysis, we illustrate a physical mechanism by which finite transverse thermal conductivity may arise, consistent with our symmetry argument and numerical results. Our results indicate that square and triangular lattices with SU(2) symmetry can support a finite thermal Hall effect and call for a critical reexamination of thermal Hall effect data in insulating magnets, as the magnon contribution should not be excluded a priori .

Mott insulators↗
DOE OSTI2022

Colliding Pulse Mode Locking and Nonequilibrium Carrier Dynamics within Vertical External-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers

The complex nonlinear dynamics of colliding counterpropagating ultrashort laser pulses circulating in a vertical external-cavity surface-emitting ring laser cavity are captured by a first-principles quantum-mechanical microscopic model coupled to an intracavity beam propagator. Furthermore, our numerical simulations establish that overall mode locking stability is sensitive to relative phases and delays of the pulses impinging on the semiconductor saturable absorber mirror. Delay offsets of the counterpropagating pulses lead to asymmetric carrier recovery and instability, often leading in turn to single unidirectional circulating pulses. Although computationally challenging, we also include transverse effects and show that the influence of interference patterns from spatial gratings written by the counterpropagating pulses is significant in stabilizing the modelocked pulses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-dimensional Ising ferrimagnetism of Cr-Fe-Cr trimers in FeCr2Te4

We carried out a comprehensive study of magnetic critical behavior in single crystals of ternary chalcogenide Fe Cr 2 Te 4 that undergoes a ferrimagnetic transition below T c ~ 123 K. Detailed critical behavior analysis and scaled magnetic entropy change indicate a second-order ferrimagnetic transition. Critical exponents β = 0.30 ( 1 ) with T c = 122.4 ( 5 ) K , γ = 1.22 ( 1 ) with T c = 122.8 ( 1 ) K , and δ = 4.24 ( 2 ) at T c ~ 123 K suggest that the spins approach the three-dimensional Ising ( β = 0.325 , γ = 1.24 , and δ = 4.82 ) model coupled with attractive long-range interactions between spins that decay as J ( r ) ≈ r - 4.88 . Our results suggest that the ferrimagnetism in Fe Cr 2 Te 4 is due to itinerant ferromagnetism among the antiferromagnetically coupled Cr-Fe-Cr trimers.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

3D structure of anisotropic flow in small collision systems at energies available at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider

Here, we present (3 + 1)-dimensional [(3 + 1)D] dynamical simulations of asymmetric nuclear collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Employing a dynamical initial state model coupled to (3 + 1)D viscous relativistic hydrodynamics, we explore the rapidity dependence of anisotropic flow in the RHIC small system scan at 200 GeV center-of-mass energy. We calibrate parameters to describe central 3 He + Au collisions and make extrapolations to d + Au and p + Au collisions. Our calculations demonstrate that approximately 50% of the v 3 (p T ) difference between the measurements by the STAR and PHENIX Collaborations can be explained by the use of reference flow vectors from different rapidity regions. This emphasizes the importance of longitudinal flow decorrelation for anisotropic flow measurements in asymmetric nuclear collisions, and the need for (3 + 1)D simulations. We also present results for the beam energy dependence of particle spectra and anisotropic flow in d + Au collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Early structure formation constraints on the ultralight axion in the postinflation scenario

Many works have concentrated on the observable signatures of the dark matter being an ultralight axion-like particle (ALP). We concentrate on a particularly dramatic signature in the late-time cosmological matter power spectrum that occurs if the symmetry breaking that establishes the ALP happens after inflation -- white-noise density fluctuations that dominate at small scales over the adiabatic fluctuations from inflation. Here, these fluctuations alter the early history of nonlinear structure formation. We find that for symmetry breaking scales of f A ~ 10 13 – 10 15 GeV, which requires a high effective maximum temperature after inflation, ALP dark matter with particle mass of m A ~ 10 –13 – 10 –20 eV could significantly change the number of high-redshift dwarf galaxies, the reionization history, and the Lyα forest. We consider all three observables. We find that the Lyα forest is the most constraining of current observables, excluding f A ≳ 10 15 GeV (m A ≲ 10 –17 eV) in the simplest model for the ALP and considerably lower values in models coupled to a hidden strongly interacting sector (f A ≳ 10 13 GeV and m A ≲ 10 –13 eV). Observations that constrain the extremely high-redshift tail of reionization may disfavor similar levels of isocurvature fluctuations as the forest. Future z ~ 20–30 21cm observations have the potential to improve these constraints further using that the supersonic motions of the isocurvature-enhanced abundance of ~10 4 M ⊙ halos would shock heat the baryons, sourcing large BAO features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗