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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗

NASA NTRS2015

ISMIP6: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6

ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6) targets the Cryosphere in a Changing Climate and the Future Sea Level Grand Challenges of the WCRP (World Climate Research Program). Primary goal is to provide future sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, along with associated uncertainty. Secondary goal is to investigate feedback due to dynamic ice sheet models. Experiment design uses and augment the existing CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) DECK (Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima) experiments. Additonal MIP (Model Intercomparison Project)- specific experiments will be designed for ISM (Ice Sheet Model). Effort builds on the Ice2sea, SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) and COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) efforts.

CMIP6↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Agricultural Areas through Improved Modeling and Monitoring of Irrigation

Irrigation increases soil moisture and evapotranspiration, often leading to cooler and more humid conditions over and downwind of irrigated areas. These changes can affect the evolution of the planetary boundary layer and ultimately influence the development of clouds and precipitation. It is for this reason that there has been a push to include irrigation processes in weather and climate models. This presentation will discuss recent efforts to model irrigation impacts in NASA’s land surface and coupled models, via both improved parameterizations and the incorporation of satellite data from platforms such as SMAP, MODIS, and ECOSTRESS. This work underscores the need to consider human water management impacts when analyzing or predicting components of the water and energy cycles, and the critical roles that NASA observations and models play in this assessment.

Patricia Lawston Parker↗

NASA NTRS2022

Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle

Shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SW FB ) is the primary driver of uncertainty in the effective climate sensitivity (ECS) predicted by global climate models (GCMs). ECS for several GCMs in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exceed 5K, above the fifth assessment report (AR5) ‘likely’ maximum (4.5K) due to extratropical SW FB ’s that are more positive than those simulated in previous generation CMIP5 GCMs. Here we show that across 57 GCMs Southern Ocean SW FB can be predicted from the sensitivity of column-integrated liquid water mass LWP) to moisture convergence and to surface temperature. The response of LWP to moisture convergence and the response of albedo to LWP anti-correlate across GCMs. This is because GCMs that simulate a larger response of LWP to moisture convergence tend to have higher mean-state LWPs, which reduces the impact of additional LWP on albedo. Observational constraints suggest a modestly negative Southern Ocean SW FB — inconsistent with extreme ECS.

extratropical cloud response↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Circulation of the Plasmasphere Fluid during the Erosion Event on September 8, 2017

A strong solar wind pressure pulse triggered the magnetic storm on September 7, 2017. Near the end of September 7, the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz) dropped from 9 to -10 nT in 30 min. The IMF Bz remained at the level of -10 nT for 2 hours and then had another rapid drop to -31 nT in 30 min. The sudden plunge of IMF Bz and the associated strong convection electric field stirred up the storm main phase with Dst falling from 0 to -122 nT from 2200 UT on September 7 to 0200 UT on the 8th. Severe plasmasphere erosion was observed on September 8 by multiple spacecraft, such as the Van Allen Probes and the Arase satellite. In this study, we examine the fate of the eroded plasmasphere particles during this event by model simulation as well as satellite data analysis. The simulation tool we use is the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF)/Block-Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe-type Upwind Scheme (BATS-R-US) model coupled with the Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (CIMI) model. One of the distinctive capabilities of the SWMF/BATSRUS-CIMI model is that it treats the cold plasmas in the plasmasphere as a separate fluid in the MHD equations. As a result, the transport and circulation of the plasmasphere fluid in the global magnetosphere can be traced and the impacts of this cold fluid on the global magnetosphere can be evaluated. In this paper, we will show how the drainage plume is formed during the storm and how the plasmasphere fluid is transported to the flank and lobe regions and eventually to the plasma sheet and reenters into the plasmasphere. We will validate our simulation by plasmasphere signatures observed in both the inner and outer magnetosphere.

Mei-Ching Fok↗

NASA NTRS2000

Coupled Thermo-Mechanical Analyses of Dynamically Loaded Rubber Cylinders

A procedure that models coupled thermo-mechanical deformations of viscoelastic rubber cylinders by employing the ABAQUS finite element code is described. Computational simulations of hysteretic heating are presented for several tall and short rubber cylinders both with and without a steel disk at their centers. The cylinders are compressed axially and are then cyclically loaded about the compressed state. The non-uniform hysteretic heating of the rubber cylinders containing a steel disk is presented. The analyses performed suggest that the coupling procedure should be considered for further development as a design tool for rubber degradation studies.

Johnson, Arthur R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Strengthened Teleconnection of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation and Tropical Easterly Jet in the Past Decades in E3SMv1

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) is a new global model that can generate a weakened tropical easterly jet (TEJ) during the easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (EQBO) and a strengthened TEJ during the westerly QBO (WQBO), which is referred to as the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. Although the longitudinal structure of the QBO-TEJ teleconnection is different between reanalysis and simulations, we hypothesize that simulations can still provide insights into the observed long-term changes in the QBO-TEJ teleconnection. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations (AMIP-historical) generate a strengthened trend in the correlation between the QBO and TEJ indices in the period of 1950–2014 as in reanalysis. The comparison of the AMIP-historical and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled historical simulations (coupled-historical) shows that the warming of the Indian Ocean has played a vital role in the strengthened QBO-TEJ teleconnection over the past six decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

GEOS S2S Version 3: The New NASA/GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

The NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) released Version 2 of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system in the fall of 2017, and it has been producing near-real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts and a weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation record since then. A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system (Version 3) was released by the GMAO at the end of 2019. The new version runs at higher oceanic resolution than the previous (approximately 1/2 degree for the atmosphere, 1/4 degree for the ocean), and includes interactive earth system model components not typically present in seasonal prediction systems (two moment cloud microphysics for aerosol indirect effect and an interactive aerosol model). The weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation system now includes assimilation of sea surface salinity, that has been shown to result in improved ocean mixed layer simulation and ENSO prediction skill.

Molod, Andrea↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phase-field modeling of rate-dependent fluid-driven fracture initiation and propagation

The rate-dependent behavior associated with deformation and fracturing of materials, such as natural rocks, poses significant challenges for modeling. In addition to the complications of the viscoelastic response, the speed of fracture propagation reflects micromechanical mechanisms in the fracture process zone(FPZ). In order to represent these complicated behaviors, a thermodynamically consistent, rate-dependent fracture model is required. Based on rigorous thermodynamic principles, we derive a rate-dependent phase-field mechanical model coupled with single-phase fluid flow in both the matrix and the fracture. The model is guaranteed to satisfy energy conservation during fracture propagation. Here, the system of equations is solved using the introduced solution procedure and a novel preconditioner that accounts for the complex fluid-structure interaction. The proposed phase-field model is tested against several benchmark problems on solid-fluid coupling, fluid-driven fracture propagation and rate-dependent viscoelastic deformation. The model serves as a strong basis for investigating rate-dependent fracturing experiments and for making predictions of material behaviors under new conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients: Analysis with a Coupled Ocean General Circulation Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model

A coupled general ocean circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. The model is driven by climatological meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and sea surface temperature. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrient groups (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Phytoplankton groups are initialized as homogeneous fields horizontally and vertically, and allowed to distribute themselves according to the prevailing conditions. Basin-scale model chlorophyll results are in very good agreement with CZCS pigments in virtually every global region. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also well represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are also in good conformance, although occasional departures are apparent. Agreement of nitrate distributions with in situ data is even better, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The good agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics realistically simulate phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization, and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

NASA NTRS2005

NESTEM Probabilistic Analysis Used to Study Mistuned Bladed Disks and Blisks With Aerodynamic and Structural Coupling

This document summarizes the initial results from a research effort at the NASA Glenn Research Center on blisk and bladed disk mistuning, including both structural and aerodynamic coupling. The structural coupling model is based on the Fundamental Mistuning Model (FMM, developed by Feiner and Griffin). This effort extends the FMM technique to accept aerodynamic coupling coefficients from computational fluid dynamic codes. The model was applied to a representative modern front compressor stage. Flutter stability and forced response were determined with structural coupling only, with aerodynamic coupling only, and with both structural and aerodynamic coupling. Tuned, randomly mistuned, and near alternately mistuned rotors were considered.

Kielb, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laminar-Turbulent Transition in High Mach-Number Flows

Accurate prediction of laminar-turbulent transition is critical for the design and characterization of high-speed flight systems. Presently, laminar-turbulent transition prediction in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is accomplished using PDE-based models coupled to the governing equations of the flow system. Current industrial models suffer significant performance issues when analyzing high-speed systems because they were developed for lower speed flows. Current research focuses on multiple solutions to this problem. The coupling of physics-based stability analysis tools which produce quality transition predictions for high-speed flows to NASA’s OVERFLOW CFD solver is being pursued, as well as the implementation and improvement of emerging models developed specifically for high-speed flow.

High-Speed Flow↗

NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Based Identification of the Interface Regions for Coupling Local and Nonlocal Models

Local-nonlocal coupling approaches provide a means to combine the computational efficiency of local models and the accuracy of nonlocal models. However, the coupling process can be challenging, requiring expertise to identify the interface between local and nonlocal regions. Here, this study introduces a machine learning-based approach to automatically detect the regions in which the local and nonlocal models should be used. The method uses loading functions evaluated at grid points to decide the model selection at those points. Training of the networks is based on datasets provided by classes of loading functions for which reference coupling configurations are computed using accurate coupled solutions, where accuracy is measured in terms of the relative error between the solution to the coupling approach and the solution to the nonlocal model. We study two approaches that vary in data structure. The first, the full-domain input data approach, uses the entire load vector and outputs a complete label vector, performing a global classification. The second, a window-based approach, processes loads into windows and addresses the problem as a node-wise classification where each window's central point is classified individually. The classification problems are solved via deep learning algorithms based on convolutional neural networks. The performance of these approaches is studied on one-dimensional numerical examples using F1-scores and accuracy metrics. Notably, the windowing approach achieves an accuracy of 0.96 and an F1-score of 0.97, highlighting its potential to automate coupling processes effectively and enhance computational efficiency in material science applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the Meteorological Impacts of Surface and Rooftop Heat Mitigation Strategies Over a Tropical City

Different heat mitigation technologies have been developed to improve the thermal environment in cities. However, the regional impacts of such technologies, especially in the context of a tropical city, remain unclear. The deployment of heat mitigation technologies at city-scale can change the radiation balance, advective flow, and energy balance between urban areas and the overlying atmosphere. We used the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a physically based single-layer urban canopy model to assess the impacts of five different heat mitigation technologies on surface energy balance, standard surface meteorological fields, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics for premonsoon typical hot summer days over a tropical coastal city in the month of April in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Results indicate that the regional impacts of cool materials (CMs), super-cool broadband radiative coolers, green roofs (GRs), vegetation fraction change, and a combination of CMs and GRs (i.e., “Cool city (CC)”) on the lower atmosphere are different at diurnal scale. Results showed that super-cool materials have the maximum potential of ambient temperature reduction of 1.6°C during peak hour (14:00 LT) compared to other technologies in the study. During the daytime hours, the PBL height was considerably lower than the reference scenario with no implementation of strategies by 700 m for super-cool materials and 500 m for both CMs and CC cases; however, the green roofing system underwent nominal changes over the urban area. During the nighttime hours, the PBL height increased by CMs and the CC strategies compared to the reference scenario, but minimal changes were evident for super-cool materials. The changes of temperature on the vertical profile of the heat mitigation implemented city reveal a stable PBL over the urban domain and a reduction of the vertical mixing associated with a pollution dome. This would lead to crossover phenomena above the PBL due to the decrease in vertical wind speed. Therefore, assessing the coupled regional impact of urban heat mitigation over the lower atmosphere at city-scale is urgent for sustainable urban planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Effects of Precipitation on Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature and Salinity as Simulated in a 2-D Coupled Ocean-Cloud Resolving Atmosphere Model

A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.

Li, Xiaofan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust increase in South Asian monsoon rainfall under warming driven by extratropical clouds and ocean

The responses of South Asian Monsoon (SAM) circulation under global warming are known to be highly uncertain, leading to the wide spread of SAM rainfall projections among models. Here, we show that the uncertain SAM circulation in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models consists of two robust components that partly offset each other: a weakening component linked to a global thermodynamic constraint and a northward shift component understood through a regional 2D energetic perspective. We further attribute the robust northward shift of SAM circulation to positive cloud feedback over the Eurasia Continent and heat uptake in the Southern Ocean. A set of climate model simulations supports the finding that SAM rainfall increase is primarily due to the northward shift of circulation driven by extratropical processes. This energetic perspective opens new avenues for predicting monsoon rainfall by connecting circulation changes to radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

tell: a Python package to model future total electricity loads in the United States

The purpose of the Total ELectricity Load (tell) model is to generate 21st century profiles of hourly electricity load (demand) across the Conterminous United States (CONUS). tell loads reflect the impact of climate and socioeconomic change at a spatial and temporal resolution adequate for input to an electricity grid operations model. tell uses machine learning to develop profiles that are driven by projections of climate/meteorology and population. tell also harmonizes its results with United States (U.S.) state-level, annual projections from a national- to global-scale energy-economy model. This model accounts for a wide range of other factors affecting electricity demand, including technology change in the building sector, energy prices, and demand elasticities, which stems from model coupling with the U.S. version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA). tell was developed as part of the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. IM3 explores the vulnerability and resilience of interacting energy, water, land, and urban systems in response to compound stressors, such as climate trends, extreme events, population, urbanization, energy system transitions, and technology change

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗