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DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Residential Battery Modeling for Control-Oriented Techno-Economic Studies: Preprint

Electrochemical batteries, which serve as electric energy storage devices, are becoming increasingly popular among residential buildings that incorporate solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to help meet their energy needs. Battery economics are affected by performance degradation over time, and managing this degradation can help extend the battery's lifespan. The tradeoff between operational costs/benefits and managing battery degradation is of significant research interest. One of the key factors for assessing battery degradation is the dispatch strategy used to control the charging and discharging of the battery. Conventional dispatch strategies typically use simple rule-based methods, and these overly aggressive charging/discharging cycles can significantly reduce a battery’s life span. Our research seeks to develop optimized dispatch strategies for grid-connected PV homes with a goal of extending battery life while simultaneously taking into consideration utility costs and occupant comfort. To achieve this goal, we adapted lithium-ion battery life- and cyclic-degradation models for use in high-fidelity building simulations, so whole-building and grid-interactive controllers can dispatch the batteries along with other flexible loads. With the help of a co-simulation platform, we performed a simulation study to compute the optimized dispatch strategies for relevant operating conditions brought about by changing geographical locations, weather conditions, and utility pricing. Comparing the optimized strategies with the conventional strategies resulted in a >50% decrease in capacity degradation and >10% average reduction in operational costs during the months of January and July in Fort Collins, Colorado; Phoenix, Arizona; and Portland, Oregon.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ceramic Composite Inert Matrix Fuel Forms in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Microreactors

Here, this work optimizes micro-prismatic high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) designs to reduce the energy-normalized mass of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW) produced. The optimization was performed for the current graphite moderator and an inert matrix fuel (IMF) concept employing different composite moderators in a prismatic design architecture. The fuel matrix is magnesium oxide (MgO) with entrained tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) fuel. The moderator materials, including beryllium oxide (MgO-BeO) and beryllium (MgO-Be) at 40 vol % loading and yttrium hydride (MgO-YH x=1.9 ) and zirconium hydride (MgO-ZrH x=1.9 ) at 15 vol % loading, were entrained within the MgO host matrix. A generic graphite micro-prismatic HTGR is used as the baseline point design where the external dimensions are held constant. The composite moderator designs use 19.9% enriched uranium nitride TRISO fuel and hexagonal assemblies. For each IMF concept, an optimization study was performed to maximize the discharge burnup of the fuel by varying the TRISO packing fraction and the lattice pitch of the assemblies. The mass of SNF and HLW, other waste metrics, fuel cost, environmental impact metrics, and the activity of the SNF and HLW at 100 years and 100 000 years were calculated for the optimized IMF and graphite reference designs. The IMF results were subsequently compared to those of the graphite reference and the values for a light water reactor (LWR) and a small modular LWR. For the SNF and HLW, all the IMF concepts and the graphite reference produced less waste compared to the traditional LWR designs. However, the IMF concepts outperformed the graphite reference regarding the mass of SNF and HLW. For the other waste metrics, the IMF concepts showed reductions in fuel cost with improved environmental metrics relative to the graphite reference. Overall, the IMF concepts significantly reduced the SNF and HLW produced per unit of energy generated compared to traditional LWR designs.

TRISO↗

DOE OSTI2020

The hidden value of large-rotor, tall-tower wind turbines in the United States

The significant upscaling of wind turbine size (nameplate capacity, rotor diameter, and tower height) has, to date, been driven primarily by a goal of minimizing the levelized cost of energy. But with wind’s levelized cost of energy now comparable with that of other generating resources, other design considerations besides cost-minimization have grown in importance—particularly as wind’s increasing market penetration begins to impose challenges on the electric grid. We find that taller towers and larger rotors (relative to nameplate capacity) can enhance the value of wind energy to the electricity system and provide other “hidden” benefits. Specifically, in regions where wind penetration has reached around 20%, we find a boost in wholesale market value of US$2–US$3/MWh. This is augmented by transmission, balancing, and financing benefits that sum to roughly US$2/MWh. The aggregate potential value enhancement of US$4–US$5/MWh is comparable with a 10%–15% reduction in levelized costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Co-optimization of repairs and dynamic network reconfiguration for improved distribution system resilience

In this work, a post-disaster distribution system repair and restoration (DSRR) strategy is proposed to improve distribution system resilience. The DSRR strategy is formulated as a two-stage optimization. The first stage is a comprehensive co-optimization of repair crew scheduling, dynamic network reconfiguration, and distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch based on the forecast load profile. The goal is to minimize the accumulative operating cost caused by the load reduction payment as well as DER operating cost. In particular, since the number of available repair crews is usually smaller than the number of faulted lines after a disaster event, the DSRR strategy determines the optimal scheduling for repairing faulted lines. The second stage is a re-dispatch of the DER power output and load shedding based on the real-time load demand of each bus. The proposed algorithm is validated by case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems. We consider those scenarios in which faults occur in multiple heavy-loaded feeders. The simulation results demonstrate that the DSRR strategy effectively coordinate the repair scheduling, network reconfiguration and load shedding to minimize the operating cost.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Expert perspectives on the wind plant of the future

Abstract Wind power technology has changed rapidly in recent years. Technology innovation, evolving power markets, and competing land and ocean uses continue to influence the design and operation of wind turbines and plants. Anticipating these trends and their impact on future facilities can inform commercial strategies and research priorities. Drawing from a recent survey of 140 of the world's foremost wind experts, we identify expectations of future wind plant design in 2035, both for onshore and offshore wind. Experts anticipate continued growth in turbine size, to 5.5 (onshore) and 17 MW (offshore), with plants located in increasingly less favorable wind and siting regimes. They expect plant sizes of 1,100 MW for fixed‐bottom and 600 MW for floating offshore wind. Experts forecast enhanced grid‐system value from wind through significant to widespread use of larger rotors, hybrid projects with batteries and hydrogen production, and more. To explain experts' perspectives on future plant design and operation, we identify five mechanisms: economies of unit, plant, and resource scale; grid‐system value economies; and production efficiencies. We characterize learning effects as a moderating influence on the strength of these mechanisms. In combination, experts predict that these design choices support levelized cost of energy reductions of 27% (onshore) and 17%–35% (floating and fixed‐bottom offshore) by 2035 compared to today, while enhancing wind energy's grid service offerings. Our findings provide a much‐needed benchmark for representing future wind technologies in power sector models and address a critical research gap by explaining the economics behind wind energy design choices.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sparsely Dispersed CeO x ‑Stabilized Pt Nanoparticles Overcome Pt Loading–Durability Trade-Off for Highly Durable Heavy-Duty Fuel Cells

Proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) are clean and sustainable mobile power sources for transportation. Recently, their deployment in heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) has attracted growing interest owing to their high energy scalability and lower infrastructure requirements. However, to meet the stringent requirements for efficiency and long-term durability for HDV applications, PEMFCs typically employ a relatively high platinum group metal (PGM) loading (>0.2 mg PGM /cm 2 ). This elevated PGM loading significantly increases the stack and system costs, surpassing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) target of $\$ 60$/kW for commercial viability. Reducing PGM loading while maintaining performance and durability remains a central challenge for HDV fuel cells. Here we exploit metal oxide–Pt interactions and utilize the strong CeO x –Pt interaction to design a CeO x @Pt catalyst structure with exceptional durability. At a low total PGM loading (0.1 mg PGM /cm 2 ), the CeO x @Pt/C catalyst demonstrates high fuel cell performance (8.8 kW/g PGM ) and stability (power retention >90%) after the challenging HDV durability testing (90,000 accelerated-stress-test cycles). With the CeO x @Pt/C catalyst, we showcase over 70% reduction in Pt cost from the M2FCT target (to $\$ 9$/kW), highlighting its promising potential for enabling stable and cost-effective fuel cell systems for heavy-duty applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel PV Array System Design to Accelerate Solar Deployment, Reduce LCOE, Reduce Land Use Competition, and Increase Siting Flexibility

The increasing demand for solar energy faces significant barriers, including inefficient construction processes, high project costs limiting LCOE reductions, and diminishing availability of "good" sites with favorable interconnection. Conventional solar installations are often constrained by long construction timelines and the need for flat, large plots. Furthermore, the industry struggles with a shortage of skilled labor. Planted Solar aims to address these challenges by fundamentally transforming solar deployment from a construction project into a streamlined manufacturing process. Our novel approach combines high-density racking, integrated terrain-following design software, and installation automation. Unlike competing solutions that either assist with standard array assembly or offer dense packing without terrain adaptability or automation, Planted's technology uniquely brings together a new array product with in-place automated manufacturing to achieve the lowest possible cost, greater site flexibility, and accelerated deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Extended Aqueous Processing on Structure, Chemistry, and Performance of Polycrystalline LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 Cathode Powders

The prospect of aqueous processing of LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 (NMC) cathodes has significant appeal to battery manufacturers for the reduction in materials cost, toxicological risk, and environmental impact compared to conventional N -methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP)-based processing. However, the effects of aqueous processing of NMC powders at industrial timescales are not well studied, with prior studies mostly focusing on relatively brief water washing processes. Here, we investigate the bulk and surface impacts of extended aqueous processing of polycrystalline NMC powders with different compositions. We demonstrate that at timescales of several hours, polycrystalline NMC is susceptible to intergranular fracture, with the severity of fracture scaling with the NMC nickel content. While bulk crystallinity and composition are unchanged, surface sensitive techniques such as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) indicate that the exposure of water leads to a level of delithiation, nickel reduction, and reconstruction from the layered to rock-salt structure at the surface of individual grains. Dynamic single NMC microparticle compression testing suggests that the resulting mechanical stresses weaken the integrity of the polycrystalline particle and increases susceptibility of intergranular fracture. The initially degraded surfaces along with the increased surface area lead to faster capacity fade and impedance growth during electrochemical cycling. From this work, it is demonstrated that NMC powders require surface or grain boundary modifications to make industrial-scale aqueous cathode processing viable, especially for next-generation nickel-rich NMC chemistries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Propulsion Electrification Architecture Selection Process and Cost of Carbon Abatement Analysis for Heavy-Duty Off-Road Material Handler

The heavy-duty off-road industry continues to expand efforts to reduce fuel consumption and CO 2 e (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions. Many manufacturers are pursuing electrification to decrease fuel consumption and emissions. Future policies will likely require electrification for CO2e savings, as seen in light-duty on-road vehicles. Electrified architectures vary widely in the heavy-duty off-road space, with parallel hybrids in some applications and series hybrids in others. The diverse applications for different types of equipment mean different electrified configurations are required. Companies must also determine the value in pursuing electrified architectures; this work analyzes a range of electrified architectures, from micro hybrids to parallel hybrids to series hybrids to a BEV, looking at the total cost, total CO 2 e, and cost per CO 2 e (cost of carbon abatement, or cost of carbon reduction) using data for the year 2021. This study is focused on a heavy-duty off-road material handler, the Pettibone Cary-Lift 204i. This machine’s specialty application, including events like unloading large oil pipes from a railcar, requires a unique electrified architecture that suits its specific needs. However, the results from this study may be extrapolated to similar machinery to inform fuel savings options across the heavy-duty off-road industry. In this study, a unique electrified architecture is determined for the Cary-Lift. This architecture is informed by multiple rounds of a Pugh matrix decision analysis to select a shortened list of desirable electrified architectures. The shortened list is modeled and simulated to determine CO 2 e, cost, and cost per CO 2 e. A final architecture is determined as a plug-in series hybrid that reduces fuel consumption by 65%, targeting the large fuel and CO 2 e savings that are likely to be required for the future of the heavy-duty off-road industry.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-Rare Earth Magnesium Bumper Beams

Magna will team with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE™) of rectangular and multi-zoned extrusion profiles using non-RE Mg. It is envisioned that the ShAPE™ process, developed during this project for non-circular profiles, will serve as the foundation for fabrication of full-scale bumper beams of the future where near net-shapes are extruded directly from castings in a single step, without the need for costly rare earth additives. In this project, the ShAPE™ process will be developed for a rectangular profile measuring 1” x 2” with a 0.06” wall thickness. Successful extrusion of rectangular cross sections is a critical step along the path toward profiles with multiple zones. With the process established for a rectangular profile, the project will then make advancements toward multi-zoned cross sections. A magnesium alloy bumper beam offers a 35% weight savings compared to aluminum alloys and 60% compared to high strength steels. The bumper beam was chosen as the first component to target because the geometry can have a fairly simple 0.6-0.12 inch wall/web thickness, generally compatible with PNNL’s knowledge base and equipment capability surrounding ShAPE™. The bumper component offers commercial value by providing mass reduction in the front of the vehicle along with ride and handling benefit. PNNL has demonstrated the ability to ShAPE™ process non-RE Mg tubing with high strength, ductility and energy absorption. It has been shown that ShAPE™ extruded ZK60 and Mg2Si tubing with 0.30 inch diameter and 0.03 inch wall thickness have similar energy absorption to AA6061-T6. This is due to significant grain refinement, breakdown and dispersion of second phases, and the ability to eliminate anisotropy in compressive/tensile strength by aligning texture 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Scalability of the ShAPE™ process has been demonstrated in ZK60 by fabricating 2.0 inch diameter tubing with 0.06 and 0.12 inch wall thicknesses having concentricity as tight as 1.3%. These tubes exhibit an ultimate tensile strength of 260-300 MPa and room temperature ductility of >20% parallel, perpendicular and 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Aluminum bumpers represent approximately 54% of the NA light vehicle market. If the research effort is successful, providing a 30% mass reduction at equal cost relative to aluminum bumpers, it is anticipated that 25% market penetration would be realized over the next 5 year and 50% market share by 2030. 100% of the aluminum automotive bumpers are sourced from the tier network, providing resourcing opportunity based on equal performance, reduced mass and cost equivalent lower than aluminum bumpers. Due to the relatively low vehicle content, magnesium components are currently shredded and 100% recycled with aluminum content in the US, presenting a positive life cycle impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synthesis of Ti 3 C 2 T z MXene from low-cost and environmentally friendly precursors

Herein we report an approach to synthesis Ti 3 AlC 2 MAX phase and Ti 3 C 2 T z MXene from low-cost precursors, viz. recycled carbon recovered from waste tire, recycled aluminum scrap, and titanium oxide. By adjusting the ratios of the initial materials, we determined that 3TiO 2 +6Al+1.9C resulted in the purest sample of Ti 3 AlC 2 when heated at 1,350 °C for 1 h. The MXene phase was synthesized by modified minimally intensive layer delamination and acid etching under N2 purging. The final Ti 3 C 2 T z films demonstrated conductivity of 5857 ± 680 S/cm and capacitance of 285 F/g (1,012 F/cm 3 ) at 20 mV/s scan rates, which are comparable with that produced from MAX phase of high-purity elemental precursors (viz. Ti, Al and C). Choosing readily available and inexpensive precursor materials such as these allows for a drastic reduction in production cost of the MXene, as well as reducing the environmental impact of the industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating technology upgrades as a complement to traditional bill assistance programs

State programs to improve energy affordability and reduce energy burden (the share of income spent on energy) could mitigate concerns about rising electricity prices. Many states offer bill assistance and rebates for weatherization and rooftop solar to income-qualifying households. Here, we analyse how these approaches may complement one another to improve energy affordability. Results illustrate trade offs between program costs and energy burden reduction, as well as between a program’s upfront and ongoing costs. Generally, the three strategies complement one another to improve energy affordability at lower net present cost than bill assistance alone, with varying effects across regions. Weatherization can reduce the solar installation capacity needed, and both together can reduce or eliminate ongoing reliance on bill assistance. Under full uptake among cost-effective households, fully rebated weatherization and solar rebated at $0.48/Watt, combined with bill assistance, yield the same modelled net present cost as bill assistance alone while reducing the share of low-income owner-occupied households with high energy burdens from 66% to 19%, compared with 34% under bill assistance alone. Absent tax credits, weatherization still reduces energy burden and bill assistance program costs, whereas solar may not be cost-competitive.

Forrester, Sydney P↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Wind Turbine Design for H2 Production

This presentation covers the annual progress of the H2@Scale project "Optimal Wind Turbine Design for H2 Production". This project investigates the outcomes of designing a wind turbine for hydrogen focused objectives as opposed to the traditional minimization of cost or maximization of energy production. Preliminary results show that significant reductions in the levelized cost of hydrogen can be achieved using hydrogen-specific turbines.

energy production↗

DOE OSTI2020

Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Zero-Emission Plug-In Battery Electric Vehicle Technology for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Conventional diesel medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) create large amount of air emissions. With the advancement in technology and reduction in the cost of batteries, plug-in battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are increasingly attractive options for improving energy efficiency and reducing air emissions of MHDVs. In this paper, we compared the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gases (GHGs) and criteria air pollutant emissions of MHD BEVs with their conventional diesel counterparts across weight classes and vocations. We expanded the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model to conduct the WTW analysis of MHDVs. The fuel economy for a wide range of MHDV weight classes and vocations, over various driving cycles, was evaluated using a high-fidelity vehicle dynamic simulation software (Autonomie). The environmental impacts of MHD BEVs are sensitive to the source of electricity used to recharge their batteries. The WTW results show that MHD BEVs significantly improve environmental sustainability of MHDVs by providing deep reductions in WTW GHGs, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide emissions, compared to conventional diesel counterparts. Increasing shares of renewable and natural gas technologies in future national and regional electricity generation are expected to reduce WTW particulate matters and sulfur oxide emissions for further improvement of the environmental performance of MHD BEVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Concentric Ring Gas Atomization Die Design for Optimized Particle Production

In partnership with Linde plc (formerly Praxair, Inc.), Ames Laboratory will further develop and commercialize its concentric-ring high pressure gas atomization (CR-HPGA) gas-die technology with a goal to improve the precision of metal powder production in a desired size range and quality. The successful commercialization of this technology could reduce production cost of metal powders and improve reliability of this industrial process, increasing specialty alloy powder availability for new applications and adoption into additive manufacturing and multiple materials sectors. The project scope is to [1] utilize AMES compressible gas flow and melt break-up models to explore a wide swath of parameter space available for the CR-HPGA technology, identifying the most promising gas-die designs for fabrication, [2] verify and optimize the new gas-die design, fabricate it and select preferred operating parameters by gas-only flow imaging and aspiration pressure measurements, down-selecting gas compositions and atomization parameters for full scale testing, [3] perform pilot-scale atomization trials with Al and/or Cu alloys of a new CR-HPGA gas-die at selected parameters, [4] evaluate gas-die performance by comparing resulting powder size distribution and powder quality attributes with equivalent powders made by conventional close-coupled HPGA technology, and [5] assess (through Praxair partnership) reduction in operational costs of new CR-HPGA gas-die through the use of an inert gas recovery/recycling system. In partnership with Praxair, Inc., the team, led by Ames Laboratory senior metallurgist Iver Anderson, intend to demonstrate the performance of an optimized CR-HPGA gas-die design in a pilot scale atomizer and better understand the design and operational controls to increase overall benefits for precision metal powder production.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Feasibility Study of Utilizing Electricity to Produce Intermediates from CO2 and Biomass

Capturing and converting CO2 generated from bioethanol facilities into valuable products, leveraging renewable electricity as the primary energy input, could increase overall biorefinery carbon utilization by as much as 40% and provide a means to decarbonize fuels and chemicals production. However, significant uncertainty exists around the costs, carbon intensity, risks, and technical challenges associated with electron-driven CO2 reduction. Thus, the overarching objective of this project is to guide existing and future research and development efforts by addressing these knowledge gaps for utilizing renewable electricity and CO2 to improve biorefinery economics and carbon utilization. By September 2023, this project will develop and publish a comprehensive design report for the integration of CO2 utilization into two existing conceptual biorefinery designs, which will include conceptual process models, pioneer and nth plant economics, identification and quantification of technological risks, and projections for future cost reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Agent Hierarchical Deep Reinforcement Learning for HVAC Control With Flexible DERs

As electricity consumption in commercial and residential buildings continues to rise, reducing energy costs presents an increasing challenge. Heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which typically account for 40%-50% of a building's energy use, are prime targets for energy savings. Intelligent control of HVAC temperature through the exploitation of HVAC load flexibility brings significant potential to reduce energy consumption and electricity expenses. The nonlinear models of HVAC systems challenge traditional control methods, while the uncertainty introduced by HVAC load flexibility complicates distributed energy resource (DER) management using conventional optimal dispatch techniques. In response to these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach. The lower-level agents focus on balancing comfort and energy conservation, while the upper-level DRL agents optimize the use of DERs to reduce peak demand based on the control outcomes of the HVAC by the lower-level agents. Here, in the upper-level agents, we incorporate a multi-agent structure based on ensemble learning, which acts based on historical and current data without relying on precise load forecasting to address the delayed rewarding issue in DRL. This allows for the effective reduction of energy costs. The proposed method is tested using a real-world microgrid comprising 413 buildings in Southern California, and the results demonstrate that our approach can significantly reduce overall electricity bills while ensuring the comfort of consumers and residents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗