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At least 631 records · Page 35

Transmission Alternatives for California North Coast Offshore Wind, Volume 4: Cost-Benefit Analysis Report

The purpose of this report is to compare the costs and benefits of installing offshore wind power plants with capacities up to 500 megawatts (MW) in the Humboldt Wind Energy Area offshore California, focusing on identifying the costs related to transmission upgrades and possible alternatives such as energy storage. We identify several options that result in lower costs than upgrading transmission to provide full deliverability. Our estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) assuming full deliverability range from $80/MWh for a 144-MW plant to $73/MWh for a 480-MW plant with a 2030 commercial operation date; however, the additional cost of transmission upgrades increases these values to between $86/MWh and $98/MWh. Based on curtailment and revenue estimates developed using a production cost model, the LCOEs for plant capacities of 144 MW and 168 MW with Energy Only deliverability are lower than the combined cost of energy and transmission upgrades for full deliverability. The addition of a 4-hour, 15-MW battery energy storage system increases revenue for both plant sizes, with the 144 MW + storage scenario producing the most revenue relative to LCOE.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2022

NREL's bottom-up cost models can be used to assess the minimum sustainable price (MSP) and modeled market price (MMP) of PV and storage systems having various configurations. MSP can be used to estimate future potential cost-reduction opportunities for PV and PV-plus-storage systems, thus helping guide research and development aimed at advancing cost-effective system configurations. MMP can be used to understand the cost of systems under recent market conditions. The MSP data in this annual benchmarking report will be used to inform the formulation of, and track progress toward, the Solar Energy Technologies Office's Government Performance and Reporting Act cost targets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Pumped Storage Hydropower Potential and Opportunities

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is a flexible energy storage technology with the potential to improve grid reliability, resiliency, and stability in the electric grid of the future. NREL has developed a range of data and tools to help understand opportunities for new PSH deployment, including nationwide resource assessment data, a bottom-up component-level cost model, and a lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions calculator. These datasets can then be used to inform grid planning models, analysis, and decision making to understand the role PSH can play in the power sector.

cost↗

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India's Electric Grid, Vol. I -- National Study

The use of renewable energy (RE) sources, primarily wind and solar generation, is poised to grow significantly within the Indian power system. The Government of India has established a target of 175 gigawatts (GW) of installed RE capacity by 2022, including 60 GW of wind and 100 GW of solar, up from 29 GW wind and 9 GW solar at the beginning of 2017. Thanks to advanced weather and power system modeling made for this project, the study team is able to explore operational impacts of meeting India's RE targets and identify actions that may be favorable for integration. Our primary tool is a detailed production cost model, which simulates optimal scheduling and dispatch of available generation in a future year (2022) by minimizing total production costs subject to physical, operational, and market constraints. Our team comprises a core group from the Power System Operation Corporation, Ltd. (POSOCO), which is the national grid operator (with representation from the National, Southern, and Western Regional Load Dispatch Centers) under Ministry of Power, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and a broader modeling team that includes Central Electricity Authority (CEA), POWERGRID (the central transmission utility, CTU), and State Load Dispatch Centers in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh. Our model includes high-resolution wind and solar data (forecasts and actuals), unique properties for each generator, CEA/CTU's anticipated buildout of the power system, and enforced state-to-state transmission flows. Assuming the fulfillment of current efforts to provide better access to the physical flexibility of the power system, we find that power system balancing with 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind is achievable at 15-minute operational timescales with minimal RE curtailment. This RE capacity meets 22% of total projected 2022 electricity consumption in India with annual RE curtailment of 1.4%, in line with experiences in other countries with significant RE penetrations (Bird et al. 2016). Changes to operational practice can further reduce the cost of operating the power system and reduce RE curtailment. Coordinating scheduling and dispatch over a broader area is the largest driver to reduce costs, saving INR 6300 crore (USD $920 million) annually when optimized regionally. Lowering minimum operating levels of coal plants (from 70% to 40%) is the biggest driver to reduce RE curtailment - from 3.5% down to 0.76%. In fact, this operating property is more influential than faster thermal generation ramp rates in lowering the projected levels of curtailment. While this study does not answer every question relevant to planning for India's 2022 RE targets, it is an important step toward analyzing operational challenges and cost saving opportunities using state-of-the-art power system planning tools. Further analysis can build upon this basis to explore optimal renewable resource and intrastate transmission siting, system stability during contingencies, and the influence of total power system investment costs on customer tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid, Vol. 1. National Study

The use of renewable energy (RE) sources, primarily wind and solar generation, is poised to grow significantly within the Indian power system. The Government of India has established a target of 175 gigawatts (GW) of installed RE capacity by 2022, including 60 GW of wind and 100 GW of solar, up from 29 GW wind and 9 GW solar at the beginning of 2017. Using advanced weather and power system modeling made for this project, the study team is able to explore operational impacts of meeting India’s RE targets and identify actions that may be favorable for integration. Our primary tool is a detailed production cost model, which simulates optimal scheduling and dispatch of available generation in a future year (2022) by minimizing total production costs subject to physical, operational, and market constraints. Our team comprises a core group from the Power System Operation Corporation, Ltd. (POSOCO), which is the national grid operator (with representation from the National, Southern, and Western Regional Load Dispatch Centers) under Ministry of Power, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), and a broader modeling team that includes Central Electricity Authority (CEA), POWERGRID (the central transmission utility, CTU), and State Load Dispatch Centers in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Andhra Pradesh. Our model includes high-resolution wind and solar data (forecasts and actuals), unique properties for each generator, CEA/CTU’s anticipated buildout of the power system, and enforced state-to-state transmission flows. Assuming the fulfillment of current efforts to provide better access to the physical flexibility of the power system, we find that power system balancing with 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind is achievable at 15-minute operational timescales with minimal RE curtailment. This RE capacity meets 22% of total projected 2022 electricity consumption in India with annual RE curtailment of 1.4%, in line with experiences in other countries with significant RE penetrations (Bird et al. 2016). Changes to operational practice can further reduce the cost of operating the power system and reduce RE curtailment. Coordinating scheduling and dispatch over a broader area is the largest driver to reduce costs, saving INR 6300 crore (USD 980 million) annually when optimized regionally. Lowering minimum operating levels of coal plants (from 70% to 40%) is the biggest driver to reduce RE curtailment—from 3.5% down to 0.76%. In fact, this operating property is more influential than faster thermal generation ramp rates in lowering the projected levels of curtailment. While this study does not answer every question relevant to planning for India’s 2022 RE targets, it is an important step toward analyzing operational challenges and cost saving opportunities using state-of-the-art power system planning tools. Further analysis can build upon this basis to explore optimal renewable resource and intrastate transmission siting, system stability during contingencies, and the influence of total power system investment costs on customer tariffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design, Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) v0.1.0

The DISPATCHES software will enable the design and optimization of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). The platform will support hybridizing existing generation facilities (such as nuclear and coal plants) as well as greenfield hybrid designs that incorporate advanced technologies (such as Advanced Modular Reactors and Coal FIRST), and it will enable the consideration of multiple technology options with different time constants. The design of the IES will be optimized for operation within the bulk power system via energy market signals (day ahead, real-time, and ancillary services) obtained from a production cost model. The goal of DISPATCHES is to identify flexible, dynamic designs that are responsive to grid market signals resulting in highly efficient, cost effective tightly coupled hybrid energy systems that can act as a "black box" to the grid to provide increased flexibility and resiliency.

Gunter, Daniel↗

Feasibility and Testing of Additive Manufactured Components

This project focused on demonstrating the ability to fabricate two parts with different geometry: an arc flash interrupter and a hydraulic manifold. Eaton Corporation provided ORNL solid models, information related to tolerances and sensitive parameters of the parts and provided testing and evaluation. ORNL successfully manufactured both components, provided cost models of the manufacturing (materials, labor, time and post processing) and delivered test components for Eaton evaluation. The arc flash suppressor was fabricated using the Renishaw laser powder bed technology in CoCrMo while the manifold was produced from Ti-6Al-4V using the Arcam electron beam melting technology. These manufacturing techniques were selected based on the design and geometrical tolerances required. A full-scale manifold was produced on the Arcam A2 system (nearly 12 inches tall). A portion of the manifold was also produced in the Arcam Q10 system. Although a full scale manifold could not be produced in the system, a full scale manifold is expected to have similar material properties, geometric accuracy, and surface finish as could be fabricated on an Arcam Q20 system that is capable of producing four full scale manifolds in a production environment. In addition to the manifold, mechanical test specimens, geometric tolerance artifacts, and microstructure samples were produced alongside the manifold. The development and demonstration of these two key components helped Eaton understand the impact additive manufacturing can have on many of their existing products. By working within the MDF and leveraging ORNL’s manufacturing and characterization capabilities, the work will ensure the rapid insertion and commercialization of this technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM) is a computer program that simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket engines for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

Source record↗

Demand Response Resources for Energy and Ancillary Services (Presentation)

Demand response (DR) resources present a potentially important source of grid flexibility particularly on future systems with high penetrations of variable wind an solar power generation. However, DR in grid models is limited by data availability and modeling complexity. This presentation focuses on the co-optimization of DR resources to provide energy and ancillary services in a production cost model of the Colorado test system. We assume each DR resource can provide energy services by either shedding load or shifting its use between different times, as well as operating

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Feasibility of Ocean-Based Renewable Energy in the Gulf of Mexico

This paper summarizes a comprehensive feasibility assessment of six offshore renewable energy sources in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) to potentially provide utility-scale electricity from the Outer Continental Shelf (federal waters) and state waters to land-based grids. Overall, the primary objective is to inform future energy planning. The authors evaluated offshore wind, wave energy, tidal energy, ocean-based solar photovoltaics (PV), ocean current, and ocean thermal energy conversion. Of these energy resources, offshore wind was the most viable option and was the focus of the second part of the study. The technical challenges of developing offshore wind in the GOM are discussed including hurricane design for turbines and substructures, as well as turbine solutions to overcome lower wind regimes. In addition, advantages to offshore wind development in the GOM are described including proximity to oil and gas supply chains. Economic analysis using established cost models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory identified hypothetical project locations where net value of offshore wind was the highest, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for three sites: Port Isabel, Port Arthur, and Pensacola. Offshore wind LCOE in the GOM was found to be higher than those in sites along the north and mid-Atlantic coasts, but decreasing cost trajectories indicate the possibility of economic viability for locations in Texas and west Louisiana after 2030. The extrapolated 2030 LCOE values range from 73 dollars per MWh (Site 1, Port Isabel) and 79 dollars per MWh (Site 3, Port Arthur) to 91 dollars per MWh (Site 5, Pensacola).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Benefits and costs of low thrust propulsion systems

The results of costs/benefits analyses of three chemical propulsion systems that are candidates for transferring high density, low volume STS payloads from LEO to GEO are reported. Separate algorithms were developed for benefits and costs of primary propulsion systems (PPS) as functions of the required thrust levels. The life cycle costs of each system were computed based on the developmental, production, and deployment costs. A weighted criteria rating approach was taken for the benefits, with each benefit assigned a value commensurate to its relative worth to the overall system. Support costs were included in the costs modeling. Reference missions from NASA, commercial, and DoD catalog payloads were examined. The program was concluded reliable and flexible for evaluating benefits and costs of launch and orbit transfer for any catalog mission, with the most beneficial PPS being a dedicated low thrust configuration using the RL-10 system.

Robertson, R. I.↗

The development of natural gas and hydrogen pipeline capital cost estimating equations

Natural gas pipeline cost data collected by the Oil and Gas Journal (O&GJ) for interstate pipelines constructed from 1980 through 2017 were used to develop capital cost estimating equations that are a function of pipeline diameter, length, and U.S. region. Equations were developed for material, labor, miscellaneous, and right-of-way costs, the four cost components in the O&GJ data, for six different regions of the United States (U.S.). Each equation is a function of pipeline diameter and length. Adjustment mechanisms were then developed for converting the natural gas pipeline equations into equations for estimating the costs of hydrogen pipelines. These adjustments were based in part on an analysis completed by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST). Here the results of this work were used to update cost models in the Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM), developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Program. Our analysis shows a wide range of pipeline cost across different U.S. regions, especially with respect to labor and right-of-way costs. The developed cost formulas for hydrogen pipelines are both important and timely as hydrogen is being considered as a zero-carbon energy carrier with the potential to decarbonize all energy sectors, and the cost of hydrogen transportation is essential for techno-economic analysis of its potential use in these sectors.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Final Report MEPV

The MEPV Grand Challenge was focused on exploiting beneficial scaling effects in solar cells, modules, and systems to make solar power the lowest cost source of power available. The project explored new multijunction, microscale solar cell architectures, new micro-optical concentration methods, new hybrid solar collection concepts, and developed a series of prototypes to demonstrate these technologies. In addition, a detailed cost analysis was conducted to determine the costs of the proposed technologies and provide guidance for the system design efforts. Key results included demonstration of InGaP/GaAS cells transferred to active silicon cells to create a three junction cell with efficiency near 30%, the transfer of InGaAs cells to Si with demonstrated high performance of the InGaAs cell behind the Si substrate, the design, manufacture, and experimental demonstration of optics with almost 90% transmission efficiency and 100X and 200X concentration with a relatively large acceptance angle (>±1.5°), and the full assembly and demonstration of functional microconcentrator systems. The cost modeling efforts indicated that a module based on the best design resulting from the knowledge and technology develop would approach $1/Wpeak total installed system cost with no subsidies. If achieved in practice, this system would provide the lowest energy cost of any grid-tied energy source.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Grid-Integrated Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels from Nuclear Power

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) investigates the relative economic profitability of an integrated energy system (IES) coupling an NPP with a synfuel production process at selected case study locations across the United States. In the synfuel IES, a high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) plant is thermally and electrically coupled with an NPP to produce zero-carbon hydrogen. The synthetic fuel is produced from this H 2 combined with a CO 2 supply using the reverse water gas shift process followed by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. This analysis considers a system in which the CO 2 is sourced from regional CO 2 emitters via the construction and operation of pipeline-based CO 2 supply networks. Locating the FT plant at the same site as the NPP and HTSE plants enables the NPP to provide zero-carbon heat and power to the HTSE plant and zero-carbon power to the FT plant as well as avoid the requirement for long-distance H 2 product transport from the HTSE plant to the FT plant. Hydrogen storage is used to enable the NPP to dispatch power to the electrical grid (instead of the HTSE plant) when grid demand increases, thus enabling the FT plant to continue to operate in a steady-state production mode. The ability to cease hydrogen production for several hours within each day enables the NPP to provide power to the grid to balance the electricity market during peak periods and maximize revenues for the nuclear synfuel IES. The FT process design considered has a 99% carbon conversion efficiency. The use of nuclear energy and nuclear energy-derived hydrogen enables synfuel production to achieve this high level of carbon utilization. Additionally, the life-cycle carbon emissions of the nuclear-based synfuel production process are very low, with WTW emissions of approximately 25 gCO 2 e/MJ, including steam credits (generated from FT process excess heat), and approximately 7 gCO 2 e/MJ, if steam credits are excluded. This compares favorably with the WTW emissions of 90.5 gCO 2 e/MJ for a compression-ignition, direct injection (CIDI) vehicle with a fuel economy of 31.6 miles per gallon gasoline equivalent (MPGGE), using low-sulfur diesel produced using conventional petroleum production and refining processes. Several NPPs in various regions of the U.S. are considered as case study analyses. Supply locations and transportation via pipeline of the CO 2 feedstock to the NPP site are analyzed through the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Transport Cost model. The team finds that the amount of CO 2 generated by different sectors is sufficient for the synfuel production process at all locations considered. The CO 2 transportation costs are functions of the distance of the source to the NPP location, the CO 2 capture cost at the source, and the quantity of CO 2 transported. Historical electricity prices for the NPP case study locations are collected and analyzed. Monthly average prices, price range, and duration of negative-price periods vary among these locations. For each location, an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model is trained on historical electricity price data. ARMA validation is done to ensure the synthetic price distributions represent one of historical prices with high fidelity. Synthetic time series from these ARMA models are used in a coupled dispatch and system optimization in the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to compute the differential net present value (NPV) of the IES. The team finds that this econometric is positive, ranging from $14M–1.3bn (2020) depending on the location. The optimal synfuel IES configuration to obtain this increase in NPV often maximizes the size of the synfuel production process with regards to the size of the NPP. However, the team shows that the NPP still plays a stabilizing role for the grid: In periods of high prices and high loads, more electricity from the NPP is sent to the grid. A high variability of electricity prices and extreme maximum prices tend to drive up electricity production. While it requires significant investment, the synfuel IES could increase the economic profitability for the existing fleet of LWRs across the country while still maintaining the grid stabilizer role of NPPs. During its lifetime, the main costs for the nuclear synfuel IES are the carbon feedstock transportation costs, followed by the capital expenses (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs while the revenue comes first from the IRA H 2 production tax credit (PTC) and then from the sales of synfuel products. The profitability of the synfuel IES is most sensitive to the value of the hydrogen PTC and the synfuel products as well as the cost of the carbon feedstock, highlighting the importance of governmental incentives regarding hydrogen, carbon emissions, and synfuel in driving the deployment of future nuclear synfuel IESs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An Eight-County Appraisal of the San Andres Residual Oil Zone (ROZ) 'Fairway' of the Permian Basin

This document assesses the size and distribution of the oil resource in an eight-county portion of the San Andres residual oil zone (ROZ) fairway in the Permian Basin. Using well log analysis, the study divided the ROZ into partitions, developed a database of geologic properties for each partition and estimated the oil in place in each partition. The study then used the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model to estimate the oil that could be produced and CO 2 stored from applying CO 2 EOR to each partition. With the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model, the commercially viable partitions were identified as those that could produce oil and store CO 2 economically at an oil price of $75/STB. The remaining geologically viable partitions could use CO 2 EOR to store CO 2 with production of oil to offset some of the costs. The database used for this study, and a report describing the database is available on NETL's website under the Collection Name Eight-County San Andres ROZ Appraisal.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Four-County Appraisal of the San Andres Residual Oil Zone (ROZ) 'Fairway' of the Permian Basin

This document assesses the size and distribution of the oil resource in a four-county portion of the San Andres residual oil zone (ROZ) fairway in the Permian Basin. Using well log analysis, the study divided the ROZ into partitions, developed a database of geologic properties for each partition and estimated the oil in place in each partition. The study then used the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model to estimate the oil that could be produced and CO 2 stored from applying CO 2 EOR to each partition. With the FE/NETL Onshore CO 2 EOR Cost Model, the commercially viable partitions were identified as those that could produce oil and store CO 2 economically at an oil price of $75/STB. The remaining geologically viable partitions could use CO 2 EOR to store CO 2 with production of oil to offset some of the costs. The database used for this study, and a report describing the database is available on NETL's website under the Collection Name: Four-County San Andres ROZ Appraisal.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Comparison Study of Offshore Wind Support Structures with Monopiles and Jackets for U.S. Waters: Preprint

U.S. experience in offshore wind is limited, and high costs are expected unless innovations are introduced in one or multiple aspects of the project, from the installed technology to the balance of system (BOS). The substructure is the main single component responsible for the BOS capital expenditure (CapEx) and thus one that, if improved, could yield significant levelized cost of energy (LCOE) savings. For projects in U.S. waters, multimember, lattice structures (also known as jackets) can render required stiffness for transitional water depths at potentially lower costs than monopiles (MPs). In this study, we used a systems engineering approach to evaluate the LCOE of prototypical wind power plants at six locations along the eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico for both types of support structures. Using a reference wind turbine and actual metocean conditions for the selected sites, we calculated loads for a parked and an operational situation, and we optimized the MP- and jacket-based support structures to minimize their overall mass. Using a suite of cost models, we then computed their associated LCOE. For all water depths, the MP-based configurations were heavier than their jacket counterparts, but the overall costs for the MPs were less than they were for jackets up to depths of slightly less than 30 m. When the associated manufacturing and installation costs were included, jackets resulted in lower LCOE for depths greater than 40 m. These results can be used by U.S. stakeholders to understand the potential for different technologies at different sites, but the methodology illustrated in this study can be further employed to analyze the effects of innovations and design choices throughout wind power plant systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

First-Principles Cost Estimation of a Sodium Fast Reactor Nuclear Plant

A multi-tiered cost analysis is performed to estimate full costs of a nuclear power plant (NPP) based on sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) technology. To address the lack of fully transparent cost estimations from past undertakings for NPPs, we have developed a detailed and first-principles-based cost estimate for a generalized SFR NPP. Our intent is to achieve a high degree of transparency with our cost assumptions and develop a cost model that is flexible and easily extendable to variations in NPP design and other nuclear reactor types. Furthermore, we strive to achieve a clear organization of costs and complete identification of key cost drivers based on first principles. To this end, the cost results of our analysis as given in Table 24 and Table 25 are organized and categorized into a code of accounts (COA) under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Varying degrees of first-principles methods are employed, such as design for manufacture and assembly® (DFMA® ), to elucidate costs in all process levels of the plant equipment, buildings and site structures, personnel, and other miscellaneous but significant cost elements. These approaches have been successfully applied in past cost analysis projects and are designed to enable rapid and flexible cost estimation. Application of these techniques for evaluating NPP costs is similar in concept to the full, detailed estimation of construction and fabrication costs determined in a later stage of NPP development. Note that our approach tries to avoid use of other past analysis results and data such as those from the legacy Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) Program, as these resources are based on historical NPP costs and thus may not be indicative of new reactor technologies or construction and fabrication/manufacturing techniques. However, we provide a comparison of our SFR NPP cost results in Table 90 against those included in the EEDB for a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗