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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Low-Energy Backgrounds in Solid-State Phonon and Charge Detectors

Solid-state phonon and charge detectors probe the scattering of weakly interacting particles, such as dark matter and neutrinos, through their low recoil thresholds. Recent advancements have pushed sensitivity to eV-scale energy depositions, uncovering previously-unseen low-energy excess backgrounds. While some arise from known processes such as thermal radiation, luminescence, and stress, others remain unexplained. This review examines these backgrounds, their possible origins, and parallels to low-energy effects in solids. Their understanding is essential for interpreting particle interactions at and below the eV-scale.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Origin of the ring ellipticity in the black hole images of M87*

We investigate the origin of the elliptical ring structure observed in the images of the supermassive black hole M87*, aiming to disentangle contributions from gravitational, astrophysical, and imaging effects. Leveraging the enhanced capabilities of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT)'s 2018 array, including improved (u,v)-coverage from the Greenland Telescope, we measured the ring's ellipticity using five independent imaging methods, obtaining a consistent average value of τ = 0.08−0.02+0.03 with a position angle of ξ = 50.1−7.6+6.2 degrees. To interpret this measurement, we compared it to general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations spanning a wide range of physical parameters including the thermal or nonthermal electron distribution function, spins, and ion-to-electron temperature ratios in both low- and high-density regions. We find no statistically significant correlation between spin and ellipticity in GRMHD images. Instead, we identify a correlation between ellipticity and the fraction of non-ring emission, particularly in nonthermal models and models with higher jet emission. These results indicate that the ellipticity measured from the M87* emission structure is consistent with that expected from simulations of turbulent accretion flows around black holes, where it is dominated by astrophysical effects rather than gravitational ones. Future high-resolution imaging, including space very long baseline interferometry and long-term monitoring, will be essential to isolate gravitational signatures from astrophysical effects.Key words: accretion, accretion disks / black hole physics / gravitation / galaxies: active** These authors have contributed equally to this work.*** NASA Hubble Fellowship Program, Einstein Fellow.† Deceased.

Dahale, Rohan [Granada U., Theor. Phys. Astrophys.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on cosmology and baryonic feedback with joint analysis of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data and ACT DR6 thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect observations

We present a joint analysis of weak gravitational lensing (shear) data obtained from the first three years of observations by the Dark Energy Survey and thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) effect measurements from a combination of Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and Planck data. A combined analysis of shear (which traces the projected mass) with the tSZ effect (which traces the projected gas pressure) can jointly probe both the distribution of matter and the thermodynamic state of the gas, accounting for the correlated effects of baryonic feedback on both observables. We detect the shear$~\times~$tSZ cross-correlation at a 21$\sigma$ significance, the highest to date, after minimizing the bias from cosmic infrared background leakage in the tSZ map. By jointly modeling the small-scale shear auto-correlation and the shear$~\times~$tSZ cross-correlation, we obtain $S_8 = 0.811^{+0.015}_{-0.012}$ and $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.263^{+0.023}_{-0.030}$, results consistent with primary CMB analyses from Planck and P-ACT. We find evidence for reduced thermal gas pressure in dark matter halos with masses $M < 10^{14} \, M_{\odot}/h$, supporting predictions of enhanced feedback from active galactic nuclei on gas thermodynamics. A comparison of the inferred matter power suppression reveals a $2-4\sigma$ tension with hydrodynamical simulations that implement mild baryonic feedback, as our constraints prefer a stronger suppression. Finally, we investigate biases from cosmic infrared background leakage in the tSZ-shear cross-correlation measurements, employing mitigation techniques to ensure a robust inference. Our code is publicly available on GitHub.

Pandey, S. [Johns Hopkins U.; Columbia U.] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗
DOE OSTI2025

Marine and continental stratocumulus cloud microphysical properties obtained from routine ARM Cimel sunphotometer observations

This study investigates marine and continental stratocumulus (Sc) cloud properties obtained from an automated implementation of a multispectral photometer retrieval. Photometer methods simultaneously retrieve cloud optical depth (τ) and cloud droplet effective radius (r e ), with estimates for liquid water path (LWP) calculated on the availability of those quantities. These applied methods evaluate retrieved cloud properties for Sc identified during a recent 6 year period over the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites in Oklahoma, USA (SGP) and in the Azores, Portugal (ENA). Modest agreement in key quantity retrievals is found between the routine photometer products and multisensor collocated profiling references. Cumulative breakdowns contingent on cloud thickness indicate increases in all retrieved quantities in thicker clouds, with larger discrepancies in the relative performance between the retrievals collected in the presence of drizzle. Under continental cloud conditions, the clouds of a similar thickness and r e to those sampled under marine conditions report a factor of 1.5 larger τ and LWP. An r 2 ≅0.65 is found between photometer τ retrievals and shadowband radiometer measurements, with photometer retrievals reporting a high (relative) bias. The τ intercomparisons indicate that variability between retrievals is a factor of three larger than errors reported from individual retrieval input perturbation tests. Photometer r e retrievals suggest a low r 2 (< 0.1) having a standard deviation ≅ 3 µm when compared to ARM baseline multi-sensor radar/radiometer references (accounting for offsets in the cloud droplet number concentration assumptions of the latter). However, photometer LWP calculations remain relatively unbiased in non-drizzling conditions, with errors O (50 g m −2 ) and r 2 ≅0.5 to collocated radiometer and interferometer references. Additional sensitivity tests for island influences on marine Sc properties suggest that while island-influenced winds may promote larger cloud LWP or thickness, the influence could be within retrieval method uncertainty and/or collocated instrument variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2026

Implementing belowground controls on nutrient uptake in ELMv2-SPRUCE improves representation of a boreal peatland ecosystem

Boreal peatlands store 13 %–32 % of the global soil carbon (C) stock, a service dependent on plant-mycorrhizal fungi associations. In these nutrient poor systems, ectomycorrhizal and ericoid mycorrhizal fungi supply up to >80 % of the nutrient requirements of their plant hosts, partly with mined nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from soil organic matter that are otherwise inaccessible to plants. Despite the ecological significance, mycorrhizal associations are only represented in a few land surface or ecosystem models. We modify the peatland branch of version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELMv2-SPRUCE) to replace the default photosynthesis-driven inorganic N and P (NP) uptake process with a more realistic representation of the process via three pathways: (1) direct inorganic NP uptake by uncolonized fine roots, (2) indirect inorganic NP acquisition and (3) indirect NP acquisition from organic sources by mycorrhizal roots. We systematically evaluated the performance of the default and modified models with field observations from a whole ecosystem warming and carbon dioxide fertilization experimental site: Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environment (SPRUCE), in northern Minnesota, USA. The modified model reduces the underestimation of the growth response of shrubs in the default model to warming from 40 %–80 % to 17 %–35 % and reduces the overall relative absolute error on C fluxes from 1.61 to 1.54 in calibration. Improvements on modeled shrub growths and shrub-moss community net ecosystem exchanges are also seen in validation. The improved growth response of shrubs to warming is accompanied by several-fold increase in direct inorganic NP uptake and decrease in fungal colonization rate. The modified model simulates a smaller magnitude of transition of the ecosystem from C sink to C source under warming due to alleviation of plant nutrient limitation. Equifinality analysis shows the newly added parameters in the modified model can be constrained by the observed C fluxes. Sensitivity analysis shows the newly added parameters have stronger statistical interactions than the preexisting parameters in the default model. Overall, the modified model is an improvement over the default ELMv2-SPRUCE and will be a useful tool for understanding boreal peatland change.

Wang, Yaoping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies and future development trends

Abstract. This paper presents the state-of-the-art technologies and development trends of wind turbine drivetrains – the system that converts kinetic energy of the wind to electrical energy – in different stages of their life cycle: design, manufacturing, installation, operation, lifetime extension, decommissioning and recycling. Offshore development and digitalization are also a focal point in this study. Drivetrain in this context includes the whole power conversion system: main bearing, shafts, gearbox, generator and power converter. The main aim of this article is to review the drivetrain technology development as well as to identify future challenges and research gaps. The main challenges in drivetrain research identified in this paper include drivetrain dynamic responses in large or floating turbines, aerodynamic and farm control effects, use of rare-earth material in generators, improving reliability through prognostics, and use of advances in digitalization. These challenges illustrate the multidisciplinary aspect of wind turbine drivetrains, which emphasizes the need for more interdisciplinary research and collaboration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Zooplankton International Geospatial (ZIG) dataset: A global repository of spatiotemporal freshwater zooplankton community composition data to support ecological research

Zooplankton play critical roles in aquatic ecosystem function and food webs. Nevertheless, global syntheses of their abundance and community dynamics are challenging due to methodological differences across monitoring programs, taxonomic inconsistencies, and a lack of standardized metadata. To reconcile these challenges, we assembled, curated, validated, and harmonized the Zooplankton International Geospatial (ZIG) dataset, which includes co-located and contemporaneous zooplankton, water chemistry, and limnological data from 307 lakes and reservoirs. ZIG includes waterbodies from each major lake thermal region and range in size from 0.8-2,805,8600 hectares. Temporal coverage for individual waterbodies ranges between 1-60 years of data (median = 4 years) with sampling from once annually to weekly. ZIG is publicly available and can be used to understand freshwater biodiversity change and its drivers at unprecedented scales, and we consider it to be a cornerstone for future investigations of freshwater biology, chemistry, and ecology.

Figary, Stephanie [Cornell University, Ithaca, NY]↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of zebrafish periderm enhancers facilitates identification of a regulatory variant near human KRT8/18

Genome-wide association studies for non-syndromic orofacial clefting (OFC) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at loci where the presumed risk-relevant gene is expressed in oral periderm. The functional subsets of such SNPs are difficult to predict because the sequence underpinnings of periderm enhancers are unknown. We applied ATAC-seq to models of human palate periderm, including zebrafish periderm, mouse embryonic palate epithelia, and a human oral epithelium cell line, and to complementary mesenchymal cell types. We identified sets of enhancers specific to the epithelial cells and trained gapped-kmer support-vector-machine classifiers on these sets. We used the classifiers to predict the effects of 14 OFC-associated SNPs at 12q13 near KRT18. All the classifiers picked the same SNP as having the strongest effect, but the significance was highest with the classifier trained on zebrafish periderm. Reporter and deletion analyses support this SNP as lying within a periderm enhancer regulating KRT18/KRT8 expression.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗