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Statistical Aspects of ENSO Events (1950-1997) and the El Nino-Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship

On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino (or La Nina), one can precisely identify by month and year the starts and ends of some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997, an interval corresponding to the most reliable for cataloging intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (i.e., those of category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). The main purpose of this investigation is primarily two-fold: First, the statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (called "interludes") are examined and, second, the statistics of the seasonal frequency of intense hurricanes in comparison to the extremes and interludes are determined. This study clearly demonstrates that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42 percent) can be described as being "El Nino-related" (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season--June-November), 13 (27 percent) as "La Nina-related" (i.e., a La Nina was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season), and 15 (31 percent) as "interlude-related" (i.e., neither an El Nino nor a La Nina was in progress during any portion of the yearly hurricane season). Combining the latter two subgroups into a single grouping called "non-El Nino-related" seasons, one finds that they have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8 events per season, while the El Nino-related seasons have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3 events per season, where the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8-percent level of confidence. Therefore, as previously shown more than a decade ago using a different data set, there undeniably exists an El Nino-Atlantic hurricane activity relationship, one which also extends to the class of intense hurricanes. During the interval of 1950-1997, fewer intense hurricanes occurred during El Nino-related seasons (always less than or equal to 3 and usually less than or equal to 2, this latter value having been true for 18 of the 20 El Nino-related seasons), while more usually occurred during non-El Nino-related seasons (typically greater than or equal to 2, having been true for 22 of the 28 non-El Nino-related seasons). Implications for the 1998 and 1999 hurricane seasons are discussed.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

PI3NN: Out-of-distribution-aware Prediction Intervals from Three Neural Networks

We propose a novel prediction interval (PI) method for uncertainty quantification, which addresses three major issues with the state-of-the-art PI methods. First, existing PI methods require retraining of neural networks (NNs) for every given confidence level and suffer from the crossing issue in calculating multiple PIs. Second, they usually rely on customized loss functions with extra sensitive hyperparameters for which fine tuning is required to achieve a well-calibrated PI. Third, they usually underestimate uncertainties of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples leading to over-confident PIs. Our PI3NN method calculates PIs from linear combinations of three NNs, each of which is independently trained using the standard mean squared error loss. The coefficients of the linear combinations are computed using root-finding algorithms to ensure tight PIs for a given confidence level. We theoretically prove that PI3NN can calculate PIs for a series of confidence levels without retraining NNs and it completely avoids the crossing issue. Additionally, PI3NN does not introduce any unusual hyperparameters resulting in a stable performance. Furthermore, we address OOD identification challenge by introducing an initialization scheme which provides reasonably larger PIs of the OOD samples than those of the in-distribution samples. Benchmark and real-world experiments show that our method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches with respect to predictive uncertainty quality, robustness, and OOD samples identification.

Liu, Siyan↗

Titan - Suspected near-infrared variability

Observations were made of Titan with InSb photometers using standard J (1.25 micron), H (1.6 micron), and K (2.2 micron) filters over a 70 day interval with 0.61 m, 2.2 m, and 4 m telescopes. A beam-switching, sky-subtract mode was used with all telescopes, and evidence appears for variation at approximately the 3 sigma level of confidence. There is some indication that, if periodic, the variation may have a period twice that of the satellite's orbital period.

Cruikshank, D. P.↗

Fermi Large Area Telescope Second Source Catalog

We present the second catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24-month period. The Second Fermi-LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are flux measurements in 5 energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. We provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. The 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 11eV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely gamma-ray-producing source classes.

Nolan, P. L.↗

Search for Higgs boson pairs decaying to WW*WW*, WW* ττ , and ττττ in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

The results of a search for Higgs boson pair (HH) production in the WW*WW*, WW*$ττ$, and $ττττ$ decay modes are presented. The search uses 138 fb –1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV from 2016 to 2018. Analyzed events contain two, three, or four reconstructed leptons, including electrons, muons, and hadronically decaying tau leptons. No evidence for a signal is found in the data. Upper limits are set on the cross section for nonresonant HH production, as well as resonant production in which a new heavy particle decays to a pair of Higgs bosons. For nonresonant production, the observed (expected) upper limit on the cross section at 95% confidence level (CL) is 21.3 (19.4) times the standard model (SM) prediction. The observed (expected) ratio of the trilinear Higgs boson self-coupling to its value in the SM is constrained to be within the interval –6.9 to 11.1 (–6.9 to 11.7) at 95% CL, and limits are set on a variety of new-physics models using an effective field theory approach. The observed (expected) limits on the cross section for resonant HH production range from 0.18 to 0.90 (0.08 to 1.06) pb at 95% CL for new heavy-particle masses in the range 250–1000 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Discovery of Fast X-ray Oscillations During the 1998 Giant Flare from SGR 1900+14

We report the discovery of complex high frequency variability during the August 27, 1998 giant flare from SGR 1900+14 using the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). We detect an approx. equals 84 Hz oscillation (QPO) during a 1 s interval beginning approximately 1 min after the initial hard spike. The amplitude is energy dependent, reaching a maximum of 26% (rms) for photons above 30 keV, and is not detected below 11 keV, with a 90% confidence upper limit of 14% (rms). Remarkably, additional QPOs are detected in the average power spectrum of data segments centered on the rotational phase at which the 84 Hz signal was detected. Two signals, at 53.5 and 155.1 Hz, are strongly detected, while a third feature at 28 Hz is found with lower significance. These QPOs are not detected at other rotational phases. The phenomenology seen in the SGR 1900+14 flare is similar to that of QPOs recently reported by Israel et al. (2005) from the December 27, 2004 flare from SGR 1806-20, suggesting they may have a common origin, perhaps torsional vibrations of the neutron star crust. Indeed, an association of the four frequencies (in increasing order) found in SGR 1900+14 with l = 2, 4, 7, and 13 toroidal modes appears plausible. We discuss our findings in the context of this model and show that if the stars have similar masses then the magnetic field in SGR 1806-20 must be about twice as large as in SGR 1900+14, broadly consistent with estimates from pulse timing.

Strohmayer, T.↗

Challenges in Quantifying Pliocene Terrestrial Warming Revealed by Data-Model Discord

Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6-2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world4. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data-model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18 C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data- model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data-model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices.

Salzmann, Ulrich↗

Search for an exotic decay of the Higgs boson into a Z boson and a pseudoscalar particle in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search for an exotic decay of the Higgs boson to a Z boson and a light pseudoscalar particle (a), decaying to a pair of leptons and a pair of photons, respectively, is presented. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of s = 13 TeV , collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb − 1 . The analysis probes pseudoscalar masses m a between 1 and 30 GeV, leading to two pairs of well-isolated leptons and photons. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the Higgs boson production cross section times its branching fraction to two leptons and two photons. The observed (expected) limits are in the range of 1.1–17.8 (1.7–17.9)fb within the probed m a interval. An excess of data above the expected standard model background with a local (global) significance of 2.6 (1.3) standard deviations is observed for a mass hypothesis of m a = 3 GeV . Limits on models involving axion-like particles, formulated as an effective field theory, are also reported.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Sudden ionospheric delay decorrelation and its impact on WAAS

In the absence of selective availability, the ionosphere represents the largest source of positioning error for single-frequency users of the GPS. In differential GPS systems such as the Wide Angle Augmentation System, vertical ionospheric delays are modeled at regularly-spaced intervals in latitude and longitude. The broadcast bound on the error at each of these points is designated the grid ionospheric vertical erorr (GIVE). A critical integrity requirement of WAAS is that the broadcast GIVE bounds residual error with a very high degree of confidence.

ionosphere WAAS GPS↗

Williston Basin Resource Study for Commercial-Scale Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Emergency department overcrowding and its associated factors at HARME medical emergency center in Eastern Ethiopia

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a significant concern as it can lead to compromised patient care in emergency settings. Various tools have been used to evaluate overcrowding in ED. However, there is a lack of data regarding this issue in resource-limited countries, including Ethiopia. This study aimed to validate NEDOCS, assess level of ED overcrowding and identify associated factors at HARME Medical Emergency Center, located in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Harar, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the HARME Medical Emergency Center, Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, involving a total of 899 patients during 120 sampling intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the agreement between objective and subjective assessments of ED overcrowding. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with ED overcrowding and statistically significant association was declared using 95% confidence level and a p-value < 0.05. Results: The interrater agreement showed a strong correlation with a Cohen's kappa (κ) of 0.80. The National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study Score demonstrated a strong association with subjective assessments from residents and case team nurses, with an AUC of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively. According to residents' perceptions, ED were considered overcrowded 65.8% of the time. Factors significantly associated with ED overcrowding included waiting time for triage (AOR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.54–3.27), working time (AOR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.52–3.26), length of stay (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.27–4.54), saturation level (AOR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31–4.20), chronic illness (AOR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.37–3.53), and abnormal pulse rate (AOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.06–2.16). Conclusion: The study revealed that ED were overcrowded approximately two-thirds of the time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Comparison of Wolf's Reconstructed Record of Annual Sunspot Number with Schwabe's Observed Record of 'Clusters of Spots' for the Interval of 1826-1868

On the basis of a comparison of Wolf s reconstructed record of yearly averages of sunspot number against Schwabe's observations of yearly counts of 'clusters of spots' (i.e., the yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) during the interval of 1826-1868, one infers that Wolf probably misplaced and underestimated the maximum amplitude for cycle 7. In particular, Schwabe's data suggest that the maximum amplitude for cycle 7 occurred in 1828 rather than in 1830 and that it measured about 86.3 (+/-13.9; i.e., the 90% confidence level) rather than 70.4. If true, then, the ascent and descent durations for cycle 7 should be 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years, respectively. Likewise, on the basis of the same comparison, one infers that the maximums for cycles 8 and 9, occurring, respectively, in 1837 and 1848, were of comparable size (approximately 130), although, quite possibly, the one for cycle 8 may have been smaller. Lastly, presuming the continued action of the 'odd-even' effect (i.e., the odd-numbered following cycle of Hale even-odd cycle pairs having a maximum amplitude that is of comparable or larger size than the even-numbered leading cycle) during the earlier pre-modem era of cycles 6-9, one infers that Wolf's estimate for the size of cycle 6 probably is too low.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate

Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index ( ) in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the is inferred to correlate best against the parameter incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the and is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the , which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide ( ) index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the and , the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).

Wilson, Robert M.↗

First Detection of X-Ray Polarization from the Accreting Neutron Star 4U 1820−303

This paper reports the first detection of polarization in the X-rays for atoll-source 4U 1820−303, obtained with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) at 99.999% confidence level (CL). Simultaneous polarimetric measurements were also performed in the radio with the Australia Telescope Compact Array. The IXPE observations of 4U 1820−303 were coordinated with Swift X-ray Telescope, Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer, and Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array aiming to obtain an accurate X-ray spectral model covering a broad energy interval. The source shows a significant polarization above 4 keV, with a polarization degree of 2.0% ± 0.5% and a polarization angle of −55° ± 7° in the 4–7 keV energy range, and a polarization degree of 10% ± 2% and a polarization angle of −67° ± 7° in the 7–8 keV energy bin. This polarization also shows a clear energy trend with polarization degree increasing with energy and a hint for a position-angle change of ≃90° at 96% CL around 4 keV. The spectro-polarimetric fit indicates that the accretion disk is polarized orthogonally to the hard spectral component, which is presumably produced in the boundary/spreading layer. We do not detect linear polarization from the radio counterpart, with a 3σ upper limit of 50% at 7.25 GHz.

4U1820-303↗

Masses of neutron stars in X-ray binary systems

Methods and assumptions used in determining masses of neutron stars in binary X-ray pulsar systems are discussed. The determination of the neutron star masses requires a knowledge of the orbital elements of the systems, which can be measured by tracking the pulse arrival times over a suitably long time interval. A method to estimate orbital inclination angle when the source exhibits X-ray eclipses is presented, in which the photospheric radius of the companion star in units of the orbital separation can be simply related by geometry to the inclination angle and eclipse angle. Probability distributions for 4 neutron star masses are presented, which have a 95% confidence limit.

Kelley, R. L.↗

Possible identification of a cluster of galaxies at redshift z = 3.4

We report the possible detection of a cluster of 16 radio-quiet galaxies at z = 3.4, identified in the field around the optically thick absorption system toward Q0000-263 at z(sub abs) = 3.390. Two of them, a Lyman alpha emitter at z = 3.428 and the galaxy responsible for the absorption system, have redshifts spectroscopically confirmed. The other 14 galaxies identified using a multicolor imaging technique designed to detect sources in the redshift interval 3 approximately less than z approximately less than 3.5 which are characterized by a Lyman discontinuity in an otherwise flat spectrum, have broad-band spectral energy distributions identical to the two galaxies with known redshift. They are spatially distributed in two apparent clumps, around the damped absorber and the Lyman alpha galaxy, respectively. A clustering analysis excludes with 98.8% confidence that this association is a realization of a Poissonian distribution and confirms that the observed clumps are real. The implications are that the 16 galaxies are members of a cluster at z approximately equals 3.4, by far the most distant ever detected. An estimate of the mass bounded in stars of this cluster is 3 x 10(exp 12) solar mass (q(sub 0) = 0 and H(sub 0) = 50 km/s/Mpc throughout this Letter), while the total mass (baryonic + dark) is 6 x 10(exp 14) solar mass. We also estimate that at z = 3.4 the correlation length is 2.2 Mpc, which, compared to the present value of 11 Mpc, suggests that the clustering evolution is still close to the linear regime.

Giavalisco, Mauro↗

A Distinct Atmospheric Mode for California Precipitation

The hydrologic cycle in California is strongly influenced by wet-season (November–April) precipitation. Here, we demonstrate the existence of an influential mode of North Pacific atmospheric pressure variability that regulates wet-season precipitation variability over both northern and southern California. This mode, named as the “California precipitation mode” (CPM), is statistically distinct from other well-known modes of pressure variability such as the Pacific-North American pattern. In addition to controlling wet-season mean precipitation, positive days of the CPM coincide with up to 90% of the extreme (>99th percentile) precipitation days and 76% of detected atmospheric rivers (ARs) days, while the negative days correspond with 60% of the dry days. CMIP6 models capture the CPM remarkably well, including its statistical separation from the other well-known modes of pressure variability. The models also reproduce the CPM's strong association with California wet-season precipitation, giving confidence in the models’ dynamics relating to regional hydrologic extremes. However, the models also exhibit biases in regional hydrologic extremes. The CPM is a useful way to understand the origins of those biases and select the more credible models for further analysis: Models with unrealistically strong gradients in the CPM pressure pattern generally oversimulate larger wet extremes and produce excessively long dry intervals in the historical period. Thus the hydrologic biases can be traced to the particular aspects of North Pacific atmospheric dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗