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At least 631 records · Page 35

Statistical Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Proxy Reconstructions

A quantitative analysis of any environment older than the instrumental record relies on proxies. Uncertainties associated with proxy reconstructions are often underestimated, which can lead to artificial conflict between different proxies, and between data and models. In this paper, using ordinary least squares linear regression as a common example, we describe a simple, robust and generalizable method for quantifying uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. We highlight the primary controls on the magnitude of uncertainty, and compare this simple estimate to equivalent estimates from Bayesian, nonparametric and fiducial statistical frameworks. We discuss when it may be possible to reduce uncertainties, and conclude that the unexplained variance in the calibration must always feature in the uncertainty in the reconstruction. This directs future research toward explaining as much of the variance in the calibration data as possible. We also advocate for a “data-forward” approach, that clearly decouples the presentation of proxy data from plausible environmental inferences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Entanglement masquerading in the CMB

The simplest single-field inflation models capture all the relevant contributions to the patterns in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) observed today. A key assumption in these models is that the quantum inflationary fluctuations that source such patterns are generated by a particular quantum state — the Bunch-Davies (BD) state. While this is a well-motivated choice from a theoretical perspective, the question arises of whether current data can rule out other, also well motivated, choices of states. In particular, as we previously demonstrated in [1], entanglement is naturally and inevitably dynamically generated during inflation given the presence of a "rolling" spectator scalar field — and the resulting entangled state will yield a primordial power spectrum with potentially measurable deviations compared to the canonical BD result. For this work we developed a perturbative framework to allow a systematic exploration of constraints on (or detection of) entangled states with Planck CMB data using Monte Carlo techniques. We have found that most entangled states accessible with our framework are consistent with the data. One would have to expand the framework to allow a greater variety of entangled states in order to saturate the Planck constraints and more systematically explore any preferences the data may have among the different possibilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Wind Turbine Aeroelastic Stability in OpenFAST

Wind turbines are growing in size and increasingly suffer from aeroelastic instabilities. Unfortunately, numerical models often show inconsistent results during verification studies. We address this gap by first introducing novel linearization capabilities within the open-source aero-hydro-servo-elastic framework OpenFAST. Next, a code-to-code benchmark study is presented that compares modal parameters between OpenFAST and HAWCStab2 for a land-based version of the International Energy Agency 15-MW reference wind turbine modeled with quasi-steady aerodynamics. The two solvers are in strong agreement except for discrepancies in the second rotor flapwise modes. The differences are attributed to the torsional flexibility of the tower, which is assumed torsionally stiff in the OpenFAST model. Work is ongoing to close this modeling gap. The aeroelastic stability of a low-specific-power land-based wind turbine is also investigated. The impact of design choices is discussed, high-lighting how narrow the margins are between a stable design and an unstable design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modelling nearest neighbour distributions of biased tracers using hybrid effective field theory

ABSTRACT We investigate the application of hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) – which combines a Lagrangian bias expansion with subsequent particle dynamics from N-body simulations – to the modelling of k-nearest neighbour cumulative distribution functions (kNN-CDFs) of biased tracers of the cosmological matter field. The kNN-CDFs are sensitive to all higher order connected N-point functions in the data, but are computationally cheap to compute. We develop the formalism to predict the kNN-CDFs of discrete tracers of a continuous field from the statistics of the continuous field itself. Using this formalism, we demonstrate how kNN-CDF statistics of a set of biased tracers, such as haloes or galaxies, of the cosmological matter field can be modelled given a set of low-redshift HEFT component fields and bias parameter values. These are the same ingredients needed to predict the two-point clustering. For a specific sample of haloes, we show that both the two-point clustering and the kNN-CDFs can be well-fit on quasi-linear scales (≳ 20h−1Mpc) by the second-order HEFT formalism with the same values of the bias parameters, implying that joint modelling of the two is possible. Finally, using a Fisher matrix analysis, we show that including kNN-CDF measurements over the range of allowed scales in the HEFT framework can improve the constraints on σ8 by roughly a factor of 3, compared to the case where only two-point measurements are considered. Combining the statistical power of kNN measurements with the modelling power of HEFT, therefore, represents an exciting prospect for extracting greater information from small-scale cosmological clustering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Possibility of 14 C cluster as a building block of medium-mass nuclei

The possibility of the 14 C cluster being a basic building block of medium-mass nuclei is discussed. Although α cluster structures have been widely discussed in the light N ≈ Z mass region, the neutron-to-proton ratio deviates from unity in the nuclei near β-stability line and in neutron-rich nuclei. Thus, more neutron-rich objects with N > Z could become the building blocks of cluster structures in such nuclei. The 14 C nucleus is strongly bound and can be regarded as such a candidate. In addition, the path to the lowest shell-model configuration at short relative distances is closed for the 14 C+ 14 C structure, contrary to the case of the 12 C+ 12 C structure; this allows an appreciable separation distance between the 14 C clusters. The recent development of the antisymmetrized quasicluster model (AQCM) allows us to utilize a j j-coupling shell-model wave function for each cluster in a simplified way. The AQCM results for the 14 C+ 14 C structure in 28 Mg are compared with the ones of cranked relativistic mean field (CRMF) calculations. Although theoretical frameworks of these two models are quite different, they give similar results for the nucleonic densities and rotational properties of the structure under investigation. The existence of a linear chain three- 14 C cluster structure in 42 Ar has also been predicted in AQCM. Furthermore, these results confirm the role of the 14 C cluster as a possible building block of cluster structures in medium-mass nuclei.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗

Proton Compton Scattering from Linearly Polarized Gamma Rays

In this work, differential cross sections for Compton scattering from the proton have been measured at scattering angles of 55°, 90°, and 125° in the laboratory frame using quasimonoenergetic linearly (circularly) polarized photon beams with a weighted mean energy value of 83.4 MeV (81.3 MeV). These measurements were performed at the High Intensity Gamma-Ray Source facility at the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory. The results are compared to previous measurements and are interpreted in the chiral effective field theory framework to extract the electromagnetic dipole polarizabilities of the proton, which gives $α^p_{E1} = 13.8 ± 1.2_{\text{stat}} ± 0.1_{\text{BSR}} ± 0. 3_{\text{theo}} , β^p_{M1} = 0.2 ∓ 1. 2_{\text{stat}} ± 0. 1_{\text{BSR}} ∓ 0. 3_{\text{theo}}$ in units of $10^{–4}$ fm$^3$ .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests

Summary The relative importance of tree mortality risk factors remains unknown, especially in diverse tropical forests where species may vary widely in their responses to particular conditions. We present a new framework for quantifying the importance of mortality risk factors and apply it to compare 19 risks on 31 203 trees (1977 species) in 14 one‐year periods in six tropical forests. We defined a condition as a risk factor for a species if it was associated with at least a doubling of mortality rate in univariate analyses. For each risk, we estimated prevalence (frequency), lethality (difference in mortality between trees with and without the risk) and impact (‘excess mortality’ associated with the risk, relative to stand‐level mortality). The most impactful risk factors were light limitation and crown/trunk loss; the most prevalent were light limitation and small size; the most lethal were leaf damage and wounds. Modes of death (standing, broken and uprooted) had limited links with previous conditions and mortality risk factors. We provide the first ranking of importance of tree‐level mortality risk factors in tropical forests. Future research should focus on the links between these risks, their climatic drivers and the physiological processes to enable mechanistic predictions of future tree mortality.

Zuleta, Daniel↗

Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Flow and Combustion Dynamics in a Full-Scale Hydrogen–Air Rotating Detonation Combustor-Stator Integrated System

In the present work, a first-of-its-kind three-dimensional (3D) large-eddy simulation (LES) study is conducted to numerically investigate the combustion dynamics as well as aero-thermal phenomena in a full-scale nonpremixed hydrogen–air rotating detonation engine (RDE) (with a diverging-shaped lower-end wall), when integrated with nozzle guide vanes (NGV) acting as the turbine stator. The wall-modeled LES framework incorporates hydrogen–air detailed chemical kinetics and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). A comparative analysis is carried out for two operating conditions with different fuel/air mass flow rates but global equivalence ratio of unity, and considering RDE configurations without and with stator. The LES model is validated against available experimental data for the low mass flux condition with respect to detonation wave speed/height, wave dynamics, and axial static pressure distribution. Numerical results indicate significant deflagrative combustion occurring in the fill region near the inner wall due to formation of recirculation zones in the injection near-field driven by the backward facing step. The leading detonation wave is found to be trailed by an azimuthal reflected-shock combustion (ARSC) wave, consistent with experimental observations, which consumes unburned vitiated reactants that leak through the main detonation wave. The main detonation wave characteristics, such as detonation wave speed/height and combustion efficiency, do not change appreciably with the presence of NGV. A novel combustion diagnostic technique based on chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) is employed to quantify the fraction of heat release occurring in the detonative mode versus deflagrative mode for the simulated conditions. The exit flow is found to be nearly fully subsonic and supersonic for the low and high mass flux conditions, respectively. Further analysis of the exit flow profiles shows that the presence of NGV renders the flow more axial and significantly impacts the exit Mach number and total pressure, while the total temperature shows negligible change. In addition, the low mass flux operating point, despite exhibiting more deflagrative losses within the combustor, yields overall lower pressure drop from plenum to exhaust, which is mainly attributed to lower pressure drop across the injectors. Lastly, the rotating detonation engine-nozzle guide vanes (RDE-NGV) configuration exhibits higher total pressure loss compared to rotating detonation engine (RDE) without stator across both the mass flux conditions. In conclusion, this study extends the state-of-the-art in numerical modeling of pressure gain combustion (PGC) systems by demonstrating high-fidelity 3D reacting LES of full-scale RDE-NGV systems relevant to RDE-turbine integration for stationary power generation.

Combustion↗

Reliability-Informed Economic and Energy Evaluation for Design for Remanufacturing: A Case Study on a Hydraulic Manifold

Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) is an attractive approach for sustainable product development. Evaluation of DfRem strategies, from both economic and environmental perspectives, at an early design stage can allow the designers to make informed decisions when choosing the best design option. Studying the long-term implications of a particular design scenario requires quantifying the benefits of remanufacturing for multiple life cycles while considering the reliability of the product. In addition to comparing designs on a one-to-one basis, we find that including reliability provides a different insight into comparing design strategies. We present a reliability-informed cost and energy analysis framework that accounts for product reliability for multiple remanufacturing cycles within a certain warranty policy. The variation of reuse rate over successive remanufacturing cycles is formulated using a branched power-law model which provides probabilistic scenarios of reusing or replacing with new units. To demonstrate the utility of this framework, we use the case study of a hydraulic manifold, which is a component of a transmission used in some agricultural equipment, and use real-world field reliability data to quantify the transmission’s reliability. Three design improvement changes are proposed for the manifold and we quantify the costs and energy consumption associated with each of the design changes for multiple remanufacturing cycles.

design for remanufacturing↗

A reactive tracer method for predicting EGS reservoir geometry and thermal lifetime: development and field validation

The project summarized here (DOE Award No. DE-EE0006764) was intended to develop a methodology for predicting advective heat transfer in fracture-dominated crystalline rock. Our goal was to determine if a combination of inert and reactive tracers could adequately constrain the effective heat transfer surface area between an injection-production well pair. Our approach consisted of: 1. developing a novel computational framework; 2. Performing heat and tracer experiments at meso-scale; and 3. Comparing predictions of advective heat transfer to the “true” thermal breakthrough measured at the Altona site. Below is a summary of project activities/findings, a summary of project tasks, and a conclusion

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Godiva IV Thermal Neutron Dosimetry Modeling and Variance Reduction

The transfer of the Godiva IV experiment from the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF) to the National Critical Experiments Research Center (NCERC) introduced a vastly different experiment room return to the neutron flux. The contribution of the background to the burst neutron energy spectrum is significant in the thermal and epithermal neutron energies. Target materials may be placed in various locations in the Godiva room, or outside of the room, for thermal neutron activation. Modeling of this dosimetry problem in Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) presented a novel challenge compared to previous Godiva IV glory hole irradiation simulations. An advanced dosimetry modeling framework for high efficiency calculations in locations far from the Godiva IV fission source was desired. The mesh-based weight windows and point detector advanced variance reduction techniques in MCNP were implemented and tested using adaptations of the critical experiment benchmark model of the Godiva IV problem. The models were validated against measured activations of Nickel, Indium, Scandium, and Cobalt foils at locations 2 meters from the Godiva IV core. Dosimetry measurements were performed in collaboration with Sandia National Laboratory. The weight windows and point detector variance reduction coupled method resulted in the highest problem efficiency.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A symbolic framework to obtain mid-fidelity models of flexible multibody systems with application to horizontal-axis wind turbines

Abstract. The article presents a symbolic framework (also called computer algebra program) that is used to obtain, in symbolic mathematical form, the linear and nonlinear equations of motion of a mid-fidelity multibody system including rigid and flexible bodies. Our approach is based on Kane's method and a nonlinear shape function representation for flexible bodies. The shape function approach does not represent the state of the art for flexible multibody dynamics but is an effective trade-off to obtain mid-fidelity models with few degrees of freedom, taking advantage of the separation of space and time. The method yields compact symbolic equations of motion with implicit account of the constraints. The general and automatic framework facilitates the creation and manipulation of models with various levels of complexity by adding or removing degrees of freedom. The symbolic treatment allows for analytical gradients and linearized equations of motion. The linear and nonlinear equations can be exported to Python code or dedicated software. There are multiple applications, such as time domain simulation, stability analyses, frequency domain analyses, advanced controller design, state observers, and digital twins. In this article, we describe the method we used to systematically generate the equations of motion of multibody systems and present the implementation of the framework using the Python package SymPy. We apply the framework to generate illustrative land-based and offshore wind turbine models. We compare our results with OpenFAST simulations and discuss the advantages and limitations of the method. The Python implementation is provided as an open-source project.

Branlard, Emmanuel (ORCID:0000000277506128)↗

A Toolkit for Active Object-Oriented Databases with Application to Interoperability

In our original proposal we stated that our research would 'develop a novel technology that provides a foundation for collaborative information processing.' The essential ingredient of this technology is the notion of 'deltas,' which are first-class values representing collections of proposed updates to a database. The Heraclitus framework provides a variety of algebraic operators for building up, combining, inspecting, and comparing deltas. Deltas can be directly applied to the database to yield a new state, or used 'hypothetically' in queries against the state that would arise if the delta were applied. The central point here is that the step of elevating deltas to 'first-class' citizens in database programming languages will yield tremendous leverage on the problem of supporting updates in collaborative information processing. In short, our original intention was to develop the theoretical and practical foundation for a technology based on deltas in an object-oriented database context, develop a toolkit for active object-oriented databases, and apply this toward collaborative information processing.

King, Roger↗

A Toolkit for Active Object-Oriented Databases with Application to Interoperability

In our original proposal we stated that our research would 'develop a novel technology that provides a foundation for collaborative information processing.' The essential ingredient of this technology is the notion of 'deltas,' which are first-class values representing collections of proposed updates to a database. The Heraclitus framework provides a variety of algebraic operators for building up, combining, inspecting, and comparing deltas. Deltas can be directly applied to the database to yield a new state, or used 'hypothetically' in queries against the state that would arise if the delta were applied. The central point here is that the step of elevating deltas to 'first-class' citizens in database programming languages will yield tremendous leverage on the problem of supporting updates in collaborative information processing. In short, our original intention was to develop the theoretical and practical foundation for a technology based on deltas in an object- oriented database context, develop a toolkit for active object-oriented databases, and apply this toward collaborative information processing.

King, Roger↗

High Order Numerical Methods for LES of Turbulent Flows with Shocks

Simulation of turbulent flows with shocks employing explicit subgrid-scale (SGS) filtering may encounter a loss of accuracy in the vicinity of a shock. In this work we perform a comparative study of different approaches to reduce this loss of accuracy within the framework of the dynamic Germano SGS model. One of the possible approaches is to apply Harten's subcell resolution procedure to locate and sharpen the shock, and to use a one-sided test filter at the grid points adjacent to the exact shock location. The other considered approach is local disabling of the SGS terms in the vicinity of the shock location. In this study we use a canonical shock-turbulence interaction problem for comparison of the considered modifications of the SGS filtering procedure. For the considered test case both approaches show a similar improvement in the accuracy near the shock.

High Order↗

High Order Numerical Methods for LES of Turbulent Flows with Shocks

Simulation of turbulent flows with shocks employing explicit subgrid-scale (SGS) filtering may encounter a loss of accuracy in the vicinity of a shock. In this work we perform a comparative study of different approaches to reduce this loss of accuracy within the framework of the dynamic Germano SGS model. One of the possible approaches is to apply Harten’s subcell resolution procedure to locate and sharpen the shock, and to use a one-sided test filter at the grid points adjacent to the exact shock location. The other considered approach is local disabling of the SGS terms in the vicinity of the shock location. In this study we use a canonical shock-turbulence interaction problem for comparison of the considered modifications of the SGS filtering procedure. For the considered test case both approaches show a similar improvement in the accuracy near the shock.

LES↗

Application of Lattice Boltzmann and Navier-Stokes Methods to NASA's Wall Mounted Hump

Lattice Boltzmann (LB) based Large Eddy Simulation (LES), Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) as well as hybrid RANS/LES methods within the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) solver framework are applied to NASA's wall-mounted hump. Computational results are compared with experiments performed by Greenblatt et al. A detailed comparison between the accuracy and resolution requirements of the two approaches for turbulence resolving simulations, as well as the suitability of different grid paradigms (body-fitted curvilinear and block structured Cartesian) are presented. This test case is part of NASA's Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) sub-project which addresses the technical challenge of predicting flow separation and reattachment accurately. Improvements in predictive accuracy by as much as 90% are demonstrated using LB as well as hybrid RANS/LES approaches compared to state-of-the-art steady state RANS simulations.

Lattice Boltzmann↗

Fusion of Visible and Thermal-Infrared Imagery for SLAM for Landing on Icy Moons

This paper addresses the problem of localization for landing on the surface of icy moons, like Europa or Enceladus. Due to the possibility of specular reflection as well as high bulk albedo, icy surfaces present new challenges that make traditional vision-based navigation systems relying on visible imagery unreliable. We propose augmenting visible light cameras with a thermal-infrared camera using inverse-depth parameterized monocular EKF-SLAM to address problems arising from the appearance of icy moons. Results were obtained from a novel procedural Europa surface simulation which models the appearance and the thermal properties simultaneously from physically-based methods. In this framework, we show that thermal features improve localization by 23% on average when compared to a visible camera. Moreover, fusing both sensing modalities increases the improvement in localization to 31% on average, compared to using a visible light camera alone.

thermal vision↗