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At least 631 records · Page 35

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗

The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.

Biosphere↗

Role of Climate Change in Global Predictions of Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols

A unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II is applied to simulate an equilibrium CO2-forced climate in the year 2100 to examine the effects of climate change on global distributions of tropospheric ozone and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols. The year 2100 CO2 concentration as well as the anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors and aerosols/aerosol precursors are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2. Year 2100 global O3 and aerosol burdens predicted with changes in both climate and emissions are generally 5-20% lower than those simulated with changes in emissions alone; as exceptions, the nitrate burden is 38% lower, and the secondary organic aerosol burden is 17% higher. Although the CO2-driven climate change alone is predicted to reduce the global O3 concentrations over or near populated and biomass burning areas because of slower transport, enhanced biogenic hydrocarbon emissions, decomposition of peroxyacetyl nitrate at higher temperatures, and the increase of O3 production by increased water vapor at high NOx levels. The warmer climate influences aerosol burdens by increasing aerosol wet deposition, altering climate-sensitive emissions, and shifting aerosol thermodynamic equilibrium. Climate change affects the estimates of the year 2100 direct radiative forcing as a result of the climate-induced changes in burdens and different climatological conditions; with full gas-aerosol coupling and accounting for ozone and direct radiative forcings by the O2, sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted to be +0.93, -0.72, -1.0, +1.26, and -0.56 W m(exp -2), respectively, using present-day climate and year 2100 emissions, while they are predicted to be +0.76, -0.72, 0.74, +0.97, and -0.58 W m(exp -2), respectively, with year 2100 climate and emissions.

Liao, Hong↗

NASA ISS Portable Fan Assembly Acoustics

The Portable Fan Assembly (PFA) is a variable speed fan that can be used to provide additional ventilation inside International Space Station (ISS) modules as needed for crew comfort or for enhanced mixing of the ISS atmosphere. This fan can also be configured with a Shuttle era lithium hydroxide (LiOH) canister for CO2 removal in confined areas partially of fully isolated from the primary Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) on ISS which is responsible for CO2 removal. This report documents noise emission levels of the PFA at various speed settings and configurations. It also documents the acoustic attenuation effects realized when circulating air through the PFA inlet and outlet mufflers and when operating in its CO2 removal configuration (CRK) with a LiOH canister (sorbent bed) installed over the fan outlet.

Boone, Andrew↗

Climate-carbon feedback tradeoff between Arctic and alpine permafrost under warming

Whether greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from permafrost will trigger positive climate feedbacks under warming remains unknown. Here, we synthesized the response of growing season carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to experimentally manipulated warming of ~2°C for permafrost in alpine and Arctic regions. Warming weakened the GHG sink of alpine permafrost, thereby increasing (13%) its global warming potential, but strengthened the GHG sink of Arctic permafrost and decreased (-10%) its global warming potential. When warming caused drying of alpine permafrost soils, the CO2 sink weakened but the CH4 sink increased. In contrast, warming of relatively wet Arctic permafrost increased the CO2 sink and CH4 source. Warming led to much stronger increases of the N2O source in alpine than Arctic permafrost. Although keeping additional warming below 2°C in permafrost regions can avoid the positive permafrost-climate feedback, measures are needed to maintain fragile carbon sink of alpine permafrost ecosystems.

Bao, Tao↗

Intensity and Self-Broadening Measurements of the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 CO2 Perpendicular Band at 5315/cm

The near-infrared thermal emission windows in the spectrum of the night-side of Venus have stimulated new determinations of the intensities of weak CO2 bands which are prominent absorption features in Venus spectra. Parameters for many unmeasured bands have been recomputed for the HITRAN compilation using direct numerical diagonalization (DND) [Wattson and Rothman, J.Q.S.R.T. 48, 763 (1992)]. To assess these HITRAN values, we have been measuring several of these bands on spectra which were obtained using the Kitt Peak McMath FTS and 6-meter White cell. Last year we presented preliminary intensity measurements of the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 perpendicular band and 4 associated hot bands, Five additional McMath FTS spectra have now been obtained covering the region 3800 to 8400/cm. This permits us to finalize our intensity measurements, and to make an assessment of their uncertainties. We anticipate that these measured values will help improve further DND calculations of many weak unmeasureable bands. In addition, self-broadening parameters were determined for some lines of the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 perpendicular band on spectra obtained with 65 and 80 torr of CO2. Because of the large spectral range, these measurements could be compared directly to self-broadening parameters of corresponding parallel. band lines measured on the same spectra. This procedure eliminates several possible sources of systematic errors that are important when attempting to determine whether or not corresponding rotational lines in different overtone-combination bands have significant differences. Our measurements thus far have found self-broadening parameters for the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 perpendicular band to be slightly larger than similar measurements for the 30(exp 0)14-00(exp 0)01 parallel band at 6076/cm.

Giver, Lawrence P.↗

Machine-Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

To cope with legacy greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is funding efforts to develop direct air capture (DAC), a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been well studied as DAC sorbent materials due to their tunable structural and compositional properties. Thermodynamic simulations using force fields are often used to provide predictions of a material’s performance in many separations. However, these force fields often make assumptions about bonds and the physics of the adsorption process. A new class of force fields called machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). In this work, models were developed to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption using MLFFs. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption in several MOFs.

Findley, John↗

Machine-Learned Force Field Modeling of Metal Organic Frameworks for CO2 Direct Air Capture

To cope with legacy greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is funding efforts to develop direct air capture (DAC), a method for removing CO2 directly from air. Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) have been studied as DAC sorbent materials because of their structural and chemical diversity. Thermodynamic calculations using classical force fields are often used to screen MOFs for their performance in separations such as CO2 capture. Machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) can use machine learning to form quantitative relationships between a material’s chemical structure and the forces and energies predicted by more accurate quantum mechanical calculations, such as dispersion-corrected density functional theory (DFT). These descriptions of forces and energies can be used to improve the accuracy of adsorption calculations. In this work, MLFF models were developed for MOFs to achieve DFT-level accuracy for the forces and energies associated with MOF flexibility and CO2 adsorption. These methods were parametrized based on thousands of DFT calculations of CO2 in flexible MOFs and used to predict MOF structural properties as well as CO2 adsorption properties.

Findley, John↗

Airborne Observations of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emission Ratios from the Yosemite Rim Wildfire, California

This paper presents airborne in situ measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) downwind of an exceptionally large wildfire, the Rim Fire, near Yosemite, California, during two flights. Data analyses are discussed in terms of emission ratios (ER) and emission factors (EF) and are compared to previous studies. CH4 ER’s were 7.5-7.9 parts per billion (ppb) CH4 for every 1 part per million (ppm) of CO2 (ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)(exp.-1)) on 29 August 2013 and 14.2-16.7 ppb CH4 (ppm CO2)(exp. -1) on 10 September 2013. This study measured only CO2 and CH4; however, estimated emission factors (EEF’s) are used as rough estimates of EF’s of CO2 and CH4 and are in close agreement with EF’s reported in previous studies. In the western US, wildfires dominate over prescribed fires, contributing to atmospheric trace gas budgets and regional and local air pollution. Limited sampling of emissions from wildfires means western US emission estimates rely largely on data from prescribed fires, which may not be a suitable proxy for wildfire emissions. Given the magnitude of the Yosemite Rim wildfire, the impacts it had on regional air quality and the limited sampling of wildfire emissions in the western US to date, this study provides a valuable measurement dataset and may have important implications for forestry and regional air quality management.

Yates, Emma L.↗

Advances in Carbon Capture and Use (CCU) Technologies: A Comprehensive Review and CO2 Mitigation Potential Analysis

One of society’s major current challenges is carbon dioxide emissions and their consequences. In this context, new technologies for carbon dioxide (CO2) capture have attracted much attention. One of these is carbon capture and utilization (CCU). This work focuses on the latest trends in a holistic approach to carbon dioxide capture and utilization. Absorption, adsorption, membranes, and chemical looping are considered for CO2 capture. Each CO2 capture technology is described, and its benefits and drawbacks are discussed. For the use of carbon dioxide, various possible applications of CCU are described, starting with the utilization of carbon dioxide in agriculture and proceeding to the conversion of CO2 into fuels (catalytic processes), chemicals (photocatalytic processes), polymers, and building supplies. For decades, carbon dioxide has been used in industrial processes, such as CO2-enhanced oil recovery, the food industry, organic compound production (such as urea), water treatment, and, therefore, the production of flame retardants and coolants. There also are several new CO2-utilization technologies at various stages of development and exploitation, such as electrochemical conversion to fuels, CO2-enhanced oil recovery, and supercritical CO2. At the end of this review, future opportunities are discussed regarding machine learning (ML) and life cycle assessment (LCA).

Peres, Christiano B.↗

Technoeconomic and Life Cycle Analysis of Synthetic Methanol Production from Hydrogen and Industrial Byproduct CO 2

Here CO 2 capture and utilization provides an alternative pathway for low-carbon hydrocarbon production. Given the ample supply of high-purity CO 2 emitted from ethanol and ammonia plants, this study conducted technoeconomic analysis and environmental life cycle analysis of several systems: integrated methanol-ethanol coproduction, integrated methanol-ammonia coproduction, and stand-alone methanol production systems, using CO 2 feedstock from ethanol plants, ammonia plants, and general market CO 2 supply. The cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas emissions of methanol produced from the stand-alone methanol, integrated methanol-ethanol, and integrated methanol-ammonia systems are 13.6, 37.9, and 84.6 g CO 2 -equiv/MJ, respectively, compared to 91.5 g CO 2 -equiv/MJ of conventional methanol produced from natural gas. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of methanol ($\$0.61-0.64$/kg) is 61-68% higher than the average market methanol price of $\$0.38$/kg, when using a Department of Energy target renewable hydrogen production price of $\$2.0$/kg. The methanol price increases to $\$1.24-1.28$/kg when the hydrogen price is $\$5.0$/kg. Without CO 2 abatement credits, the H 2 price needs to be within $\$0.77-0.95$/kg for the MFSP of methanol to equal the average methanol market price. With a CO 2 credit of $\$35$/MT according to tax credit per metric ton of CO 2 captured and used, the methanol price is reduced to $\$0.56-0.59$/kg.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mars: Its atmosphere and surface

Spectral experiments on Mars Orbiter show that solar energy is absorbed by the planet and its atmosphere and eventually re-emitted in the infrared as thermal emission. The majority of the radiances at the north polar Mars area follows very closely the radiance from a black body of about 145 degrees kelvin, which indicates a frozen CO2 surface; the south polar region radiance indicates a temperature inversion in the atmosphere, and the emission of atmospheric dust as well as emissions from frozen CO2.

Hanel, R. A.↗

Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

Sahagian, Dork↗

CO/d-3 Delta sub i to X-1 Sigma +/ fluorescence from photodissociation of CO2 by 923 A photons

Measurements of vacuum ultraviolet fluorescence from the photodissociation of CO2 by photons from a N IV line emission source at a wavelength of 923 A have revealed a second CO band system in addition to the expected emission bands. Spectra with time resolution were obtained and the fluorescence lifetime and the dependence of fluorescence intensity on CO2 pressure were measured. An analysis of this data has permitted the second band system to be identified as originating from CO(d-3 Delta sub i to X-1 Sigma +) transitions.

Phillips, E.↗

An observational search for CO2 ice clouds on Mars

CO2 ice clouds were first directly identified on Mars by the Mariner 6 and 7 infrared spectrometer limb scans. These observations provided support for early theoretical modeling efforts of CO2 condensation. Mariner 9 IRIS temperature profiles of north polar hood clouds were interpreted as indicating that these clouds were composed of H2O ice at lower latitudes and CO2 ice at higher latitudes. The role of CO2 condensation on Mars has recently received increased attention because (1) Kasting's model results indicated that CO2 cloud condensation limits the magnitude of the proposed early Mars CO2/H2O greenhouse, and (2) Pollack el al.'s GCM results indicated that the formation of CO2 ice clouds is favorable at all polar latitudes during the fall and winter seasons. These latter authors have shown that CO2 clouds play an important role in the polar energy balance, as the amount of CO2 contained in the polar caps is constrained by a balance between latent heat release, heat advected from lower latitudes, and thermal emission to space. The polar hood clouds reduce the amount of CO2 condensation on the polar caps because they reduce the net emission to space. There have been many extensive laboratory spectroscopic studies of H2O and CO2 ices and frosts. In this study, we use results from these and other sources to search for the occurrence of diagnostic CO2 (and H2O) ice and/or frost absorption features in ground based near-infrared imaging spectroscopic data of Mars. Our primary goals are (1) to try to confirm the previous direct observations of CO2 clouds on Mars; (2) to determine the spatial extent, temporal variability, and composition (H2O/CO2 ratio) of any clouds detected; and (3) through radiative transfer modeling, to try to determine the mean particle size and optical depth of polar hood clouds, thus, assessing their role in the polar heat budget.

Bell, James F., III↗

Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO 2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 sink with lower net CO 2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: -52 g C m -2 y -1 ) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: -5 to -9 g C m -2 y -1 ). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m -2 y -1 ). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO 2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

35-GHz Measurements of Carbon Dioxide Crystals

In order to maximize our knowledge of the martian polar caps, it is important to compare and contrast the behavior of both frozen H2O and CO2 in different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. Relatively little attention has been given, thus far, to observing the thermal microwave part of the spectrum. In this experiment, passive microwave radiation emanating from within a 33-cm snowpack was measured with a 35-GHz hand-held radiometer, and in addition to the natural snow measurements, the radiometer was used to measure the microwave emission and scattering from layers of manufactured CO2 (dry ice) crystals. A 1 square meter plate of aluminum sheet metal was positioned beneath the natural snow so that microwave emissions from the underlying soil layers would be minimized. 35 GHz measurements of this plate were made through the 33-cm snowpack. Layers of the snow were removed and measurements were repeated for the diminishing snowpack until the bare plate was in view. Then, 9 cm of CO2 crystals were deposited onto the sheet-metal plate, and as was the case for the natural snow, hand-held measurements were made each time the thickness of the deposit was altered. These CO2 crystals were -0.65 cm in diameter and were cylindrical. The temperature of the dry ice was -76 C, whereas the temperature at the top of the snowpack was -1.9 C (the air temperature was -3 C). Two additional 9-cm increments were placed on top of the existing CO2 crystals, resulting in a total thickness of 27 cm of dry ice. After this series of measurements was made, the CO2 crystals were then placed on top of the snowpack, and as before, measurements were made using the 35-GHz radiometer. As a final part of this experiment, soil particles were spread on top of the dry ice, and once again, microwave measurements were made with the 35-GHz radiometer.

Foster, J.↗

Production of carbon, sulfur, and CS in Comet West

Results from ultraviolet spectrographic observations of Comet West (1975n) in the 1620-3960 A wavelength range are presented. Objective grating imagery of the comet reveals for the first time emission from sulfur atoms and CS molecules as well as previously observed lines or bands in carbon atoms and CO(+), CO2(+) and OH molecules. Some evidence exists for emission in the C2 Mulliken bands and in the CO Cameron bands. On the basis of the observations, production rates of C (ground state), C(1D), S, and CS are inferred to be 3.8 x 10 to the 29th per sec, 4.4 x 10 to the 29th per sec, 1.7 x 10 to the 28th per sec, and greater than approximately 3.1 x 10 to the 27th per sec, respectively.

Smith, A. M.↗