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At least 631 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretch Grid GCM: The 1998 Summer Drought

The variable resolution stretched grid(SG) GCM based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) GCM, has been developed and tested in a regional climate simulation mode. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulation of the 1988 summer drought over the U.S. Midwest. Within the stretched grid, the region of interest with a uniform about 60 km resolution is a rectangle over the U.S. Outside the region, the grid intervals increase or stretch with a constant stretching factor (as a geometric progression). The results of two-month simulation for the anomalous climate event of the U.S. drought of 1988, are validated against data analysis fields and diagnostics. The event has been chosen by the Project to Inter-compare Regional Climate Simulations(PIRCS). The efficient regional down-scaling as well as the positive impact of fine regional resolution, are obtained. More specifically, the precipitation, 500 hPa, and low-level jet patterns and characteristics are well represented in the simulation. The SG-concept appeared to be a promising candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗
NASA NTRS1998

Climate Rotation Feedback on Mars

It has long been appreciated that changes in the orbital and rotational geometry of Mars will influence the seasonal and latitudinal pattern of insolation [1-5], and this will likely dominate climatic fluctuations on time scales of 101 to 107 years (6-9]. Equally important, but less widely appreciated, is the influence climatic change can have on rotational dynamics. The primary means by which climate influences rotation is via its influence on transport of mass (volatiles and dust) into and out of the polar regions. Both the rate and direction of Mars rotation can be changed by these mass fluxes, but only the directional changes are climatically relevant.

Bills, Bruce G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL- FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few shiptracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

Busalaacchi, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climate Change and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

Using GCM (General Circulation Model) simulations of the troposphere-stratosphere circulation in different climate regimes, the sensitivity of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation to climate change will be discussed. Included will be simulations of the stratosphere with increasing/doubled CO2 as done with different versions of the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model, with and without ozone response. To put the results in a broader perspective, stratospheric circulation changes from several paleoclimate simulations will also be presented, including the Last Glacial Maximum and the Paleocene, each with several different (plausible) latitudinal sea surface temperature gradients. Hence the climate changes investigated will include strong variations in baroclinic and topographic tropospheric planetary wave and gravity wave forcing, as well as global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels. Results will be analyzed in terms of wave driving via E-P flux convergences and gravity wave effects, and will be shown to be strongly dependent on wave propagation characteristics.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS2000

The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region during winter. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet stream is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation especially over East Asia. The variabilities of the EAJ on these time scales have been relatively well documented. It has also been understood since decades ago that the interannual. variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation. However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the EAJ and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the EAJ and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet stream linked to the non-ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern?

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2000

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

Charlson, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climate Change and the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

Using GCM simulations of the troposphere-stratosphere circulation in different climate regimes, the sensitivity of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation to climate change will be discussed. Included will be simulations of the stratosphere with increasing/doubled C02 as done with different versions of the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model, with and without ozone response. To put the results in a broader perspective, stratospheric circulation changes from several paleoclimate simulations will also be presented, including the Last Glacial Maximum and the Paleocene, each with several different (plausible) latitudinal sea surface temperature gradients. Hence the climate changes investigated will include strong variations in baroclinic and topographic tropospheric planetary wave and gravity wave forcing, as well as global mean temperature and atmospheric C02 levels. Results will be analyzed in terms of wave driving via E-P flux convergences and gravity wave effects, and will be shown to be strongly dependent on wave propagation characteristics.

Rind, David↗
NASA NTRS2000

A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid General Circulation Model: Regional Climate Simulation

The development of and results obtained with a variable resolution stretched-grid GCM for the regional climate simulation mode, are presented. A global variable resolution stretched- grid used in the study has enhanced horizontal resolution over the U.S. as the area of interest The stretched-grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interaction& It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The major results of the study are presented for the successful stretched-grid GCM simulation of the anomalous climate event of the 1988 U.S. summer drought- The straightforward (with no updates) two month simulation is performed with 60 km regional resolution- The major drought fields, patterns and characteristics such as the time averaged 500 hPa heights precipitation and the low level jet over the drought area. appear to be close to the verifying analyses for the stretched-grid simulation- In other words, the stretched-grid GCM provides an efficient down-scaling over the area of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution. It is also shown that the GCM skill is sustained throughout the simulation extended to one year. The developed and tested in a simulation mode stretched-grid GCM is a viable tool for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

High and Mid-Latitude Wetlands, Climate Change, and Carbon Storage

Pollen and macrofossil stratigraphy from wetlands associated with AMS chronology provides a vegetational and climatic history over thousands of years. From these records we establish a record of climate change which can be compared with independent records of carbon accumulation rates in these same wetlands. In this way, inferences can be made concerning carbon storage during different climatic regimes. One focus of our research has been high-latitude regions such as Alaskan and Siberian tundra, from which we have paleorecords which span the last 10,000 years. We will present records from the Malaspina Glacier region, Alaska and the Pur-Taz region of Western Siberia. A second focus of our research is in mid-latitude eastern North America. We will present paleorecords from wetlands in Vermont, New York, and Virginia showing the relationship between carbon accumulation rates and climatic changes since the late Pleistocene.

Peteet, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2000

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosol

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the third year of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this one-year grant consisted in analysis and publication of field studies using a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180 deg backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Analyzed data consisted of measurements made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with target in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator.

Charlson, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Strategy to Assess Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing of Climate Using Satellite Radiation Measurements

Atmospheric aerosols have a complex internal chemical composition and optical properties. Therefore it is difficult to model their impact on redistribution and absorption of solar radiation, and the consequent impact on atmospheric dynamics and climate. The use in climate models of isolated aerosol parameters retrieved from satellite data (e.g. optical thickness) may result in inconsistent calculations, if the model assumptions differ from these of the satellite retrieval schemes. Here we suggest a strategy to assess the direct impact of aerosol on the radiation budget at the top and bottom of the atmosphere using satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral solar radiation scattered by the aerosol. This method ensures consistent use of the satellite data and increases its accuracy. For Kaufman and Tanre: Strategy for aerosol direct forcing anthropogenic aerosol in the fine mode (e.g. biomass burning smoke and urban pollution) consistent use of satellite derived optical thickness can yield the aerosol impact on the spectral solar flux with accuracy an order of magnitude better than the optical thickness itself. For example, a simulated monthly average smoke optical thickness of 0.5 at 0.55 microns (forcing of 40-50 W/sq m) derived with an error of 20%, while the forcing can be measured directly with an error of only 0-2 W/sq m. Another example, the effect of large dust particles on reflection of solar flux can be derived three times better than retrievals of optical thickness. Since aerosol impacts not only the top of the atmosphere but also the surface irradiation, a combination of satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral flux, can be the most direct mechanism to evaluate the aerosol effect on climate and assimilate it in climate models. The strategy is applied to measurements from SCAR-B and the Tarfox experiments. In SCAR-B aircraft spectral data are used to derive the 24 hour radiative forcing of smoke at the top of the atmosphere of (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)tau = - 25 +/- 5 W/sq m. Ground based data give forcing at the surface of (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)taur = -80 +/- 5 W/sq m. In TARFOX a mixture of maritime and regional pollution aerosol resulted in a varied forcing at the top of the atmosphere, (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)tau, between -26 W/sq 2 and -50 W/sq m depending on mixture of coarse and accumulation modes, for Angstrom exponents of 1.0 and 0.2 respectively.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Mocko, David M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Orbital Noise in the Earth System and Climate Fluctuations

Frequency noise in the variations of the Earth's obliquity (tilt) can modulate the insolation signal for climate change. Including this frequency noise effect on the incoming solar radiation, we have applied an energy balance climate model to calculate the climate fluctuations for the past one million years. Model simulation results are in good agreement with the geologically observed paleoclimate data. We conclude that orbital noise in the Earth system may be the major cause of the climate fluctuation cycles.

Liu, Han-Shou↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Effect of Regional Climate Variability on Outbreak of Bartonellosis Epidemics in Peru

Bartonellosis is a vector-borne, highly fatal, emerging infectious disease, which has been known in the Peruvian Andes since the early 1600s and has continued to be a problem in many mountain valleys in Peru and other Andean South American countries. The causative bacterium, Bartonella bacilliformis (Bb), is believed to be transmitted to humans by bites of the sand fly Lutzomyia verrucarum. According to available medical records, the transmission of infection often occurs in river valleys of the Andes Mountains at an altitude between 800 and 3500 meters above sea level. It shows a seasonal pattern, which usually begins to rise in December, peaks in February and March, and is at its lowest from July until November. The epidemics of bartonellosis also vary interannually, occurring every four to eight years, and appear to be associated with the El Nino cycle. In response to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announcement on climate variability and human health, which was constructed to stimulate integrated multidisciplinary research in the area of climate variability and health interactions, we have conducted a study to investigate the relationship between the El Nino induced regional climate variation and the outbreak of bartonellosis epidemics in Peru. Two test sites, Caraz and Cusco, were selected for this study. According to reports, Caraz has a long-standing history of endemic transmission and Cusco, which is located about five degrees poleward of Caraz, had no recorded epidemics until the most recent 1997/1998 El Nino event. The goal of this study is to clarify the relative importance of climatic risk factors for each area that could be predicted in advance, thus allowing implementation of cost-effective control measures, which would reduce disease morbidity and mortality.

Zhou, Jia-Yu↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Feedbacks Between Water and Vegetation in the Climate System

Not only is water essential for life on earth, but life itself affects the global hydrologic cycle and consequently the climate of the planet. Whether the global feedbacks between life and the hydrologic cycle tend to stabilize the climate system about some equilibrium level is difficult to assess. We use a global climate model to examine how the presence of vegetation can affect the hydrologic cycle in a particular region. A control for the present climate is compared with a model experiment in which the Sahara Desert is replaced by vegetation in the form of trees and shrubs common to the Sahel region. A second model experiment is designed to identify the separate roles of two different effects of vegetation, namely the modified albedo and the presence of roots that can extract moisture from deeper soil layers. The results show that the presence of vegetation leads to increases in precipitation and soil moisture in western Sahara. In eastern Sahara, the changes are less clear. The increase in soil moisture is greater when the desert albedo is replaced by the vegetation albedo than when both the vegetation albedo and roots are added. The effect of roots is to withdraw water from deeper layers during the dry season. One implication of this study is that the insertion of vegetation into the Sahara modifies the hydrologic cycle so that the vegetation is more likely to persist than initially.

Miller, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectively of snow is the most important process by which snow cover cart impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mesoscale Convective Systems During SCSMEX: Simulations with a Regional Climate Model and a Cloud-Resolving Model

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China (Lau et al. 2000). Multiple observation platforms (e.g., soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind seafarers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convection and circulation changes, associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided precipitation derived from atmospheric budgets (Johnson and Ciesielski 2002) and comparison to those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). In this paper, a regional climate model and a cloud-resolving model are used to perform multi-day integrations to understand the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. The regional climate model is used to understand the soil - precipitation interaction and feedback associated with a flood event that occurred in and around China's Atlantic River during SCSMEX. Sensitivity tests on various land surface models, cumulus parameterization schemes (CASE), sea surface temperature (SST) variations and midlatitude influences are also performed to understand the processes associated with the onset of the monsoon over the S. China Sea during SCSMEX. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes with very fine spatial and temporal resolution. One of the major characteristics of CRMs is an explicit interaction between clouds, radiation and the land/ocean surface. It is for this reason that GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) has formed the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Study) expressly for the purpose of improving the representation of the moist processes in large-scale models using CRMs. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM and is used to simulate convective systems associated with the onset of the South China Sea monsoon in 1998. The BRUCE model includes the same land surface model, cloud physics, and radiation scheme used in the regional climate model. A comparison between the results from the GCE model and regional climate model is performed.

Tao, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Climatic and Chemical Controls on Methane Emissions from Wetlands

Natural wetlands are the largest single source of methane to the atmosphere and the only one dominated by climate. Although interannual variations in methane emissions from short-term climate variations are becoming better understood, major uncertainties remain with respect to the sensitivity of wetlands and their CH4 emissions to climate variability, the sensitivity of suppression of wetland methane missions to changes in low-dose sulfate deposition, and the response of wetland dynamics to climate variations. We present results from modeling, field, and remote sensing research that integrate current understanding of the dynamics of wetlands and their methane emissions.

Matthews, Elaine↗