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The biota as ancient and modern modulator of the earth's atmosphere

The composition of the terrestrial atmosphere is thought to have been markedly modified by surface microbiota and modulated around quantities of gases optimized for growth of these microbiota. Three diagrams illustrating these suppositions are presented. The first shows a probable order of appearance of major metabolic pathways in microbes that interact with sediment and atmosphere. It is based on evolutionary considerations and is devised independently of the fossil record. The second diagram shows the qualitative emissions and removals of atmospheric gases by anaerobic organisms; it approximates those processes thought to have dominated the terrestrial atmosphere in Archean times. The third diagrams gaseous emissions and removals by the major groups of organisms, including oxygen-releasing and -utilizing forms. Biological gas exchange processes thought to have dominated the atmosphere since the Proterozoic are thus represented.

Margulis, L.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-17909-DND

Infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere by carbon dioxide and nitric oxide has been observed continuously since January 2002 by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the NASA Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. SABER has documented dramatic variability in the radiative cooling on timescales ranging from days to longer than the nominal 11-year solar cycle. SABER radiance measurements from emission by CO2 (at 15 um) and NO (at 5.3 um) are used to calculate global daily emitted thermosphere power. This unique dataset shows the direct effects of solar variability on the temperature (via CO2 emission) and composition (from NO emission) for nearly twelve years. The deep solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 is evident in the low values of global mean radiative cooling that occur in the 2008-2009 period. Since then radiative cooling has been observed to increase in response to the transition into solar cycle 24. To more clearly identify extrema in the time series of radiative cooling, NO and CO2 cooling rates are deseasonalized to remove effects of the spacecraft yaw cycle. The deseasonalized data show a clear peak of radiative cooling in NO and CO2 occurring in December 2011. This peak in cooling corresponds to similar peaks in the ultraviolet flux emitted from the Sun measured by the SORCE and SEE instruments. These results show that a maximum in solar activity has clearly occurred. This may be a local maximum in time, depending on the future activity of the Sun in solar cycle 24. Reprocessing of version 2.0 of the SABER dataset is nearly complete and results from this new release will be presented. The SABER thermosphere power dataset will be continuously updated as new data are acquired to monitor the occurrence of solar maximum from the perspective of atmospheric cooling.

L A Hunt↗

Source and Chemistry of Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) in Fairbanks, Alaska

Fairbanks, Alaska is a subarctic city with fine-particle (PM 2.5 ) concentrations that exceed air quality regulations in winter due to weak dispersion caused by strong atmospheric inversions, local emissions, and the unique chemistry occurring under the cold and dark conditions. Here we report on observations from the winters of 2020 and 2021, motivated by our pilot study which showed exceptionally high concentrations of fine particle hydroxy methane sulfonate (HMS) or related sulfur (IV) species (e.g., sulfite and bisulfite). We deployed an online Particle-Into-Liquid Sampler-Ion Chromatography (PILS-IC) in conjunction with a suite of instruments to determine HMS precursors (HCHO, SO 2 ) and aerosol composition in general, with the goal to characterize the sources and sinks of HMS in wintertime Fairbanks. PM 2.5 HMS comprised a significant fraction of PM 2.5 sulfur (26-41%) and overall PM 2.5 mass concentration (2.8-6.8%) during pollution episodes, substantially higher than what has been observed in other regions, likely due to the exceptionally low temperatures. HMS peaked in January, with lower concentrations in December and February, resulting from changes in precursors as well as meteorological conditions. Strong correlations with inorganic sulfate and organic mass during pollution events suggest HMS is linked to processes responsible for poor air quality episodes. These findings demonstrate unique aspects of air pollution formation in cold and humid atmospheres.

Fine-particle↗

Methanogenesis, Mesospheric Clouds, and Global Habitability

Hyperthermophilic methanogens can exist in a deep hot biosphere up to 110 C, or 10 km deep. Methane (CH4) itself is thermodynamically stable to depths of 300 km. Geologic (microbial plus abiogenic thermal) methane is transported upward, attested to by its association with helium, to form petroleum pools. Near or at the surface, geologic CH4 mixes with other natural and with anthropogenic CH4 yielding annual emissions into the atmosphere of 500 Tg, of which 200 Tg are natural and 300 Tg are man-made. The atmospheric lifetime of CH4, a greenhouse gas 20 times more effective than CO2 in raising global temperatures, is approximately 10 years. It is removed from the atmosphere mainly by reactions with hydroxyl radical (OH) to form CO2, but also by dry soil and by conversion to H2O in the stratosphere and middle atmosphere. A sudden rise in atmospheric temperatures by 9-12 C some 55 million years ago has been explained by the release in a few thousand years of three trillion tons of CH4 out of 15 trillion tons that had formed beneath the sea floor. What prevented this CH4-induced greenhouse effect from running away? An analog to the CH4-burp of 55 million years ago is the CH4-doubling over the past century which resulted in a increase in upper level H2O from 4.3 ppmv to 6 ppmv. This 30% increase in H2O vapor yielded a tenfold increase in brightness of polar mesospheric clouds because of a strong dependence of the ice particle nucleation rate on the water saturation ratios. Models show that at a given temperature the optical depth of mesospheric clouds scales as [H2O]beta with beta varying between 4 and 8. Radiative transfer tools applied to mesospheric particles suggest that an optical depth of approximately one, or 1000 times the current mesospheric cloud optical depth, would result in tropospheric cooling of about 10 K. Assuming beta=6, a thousandfold increase in optical thickness would require a three-fold increase of H2O, or a 20-fold increase of CH4. At the current rate of anthropogenic emissions this is expected to occur within the next 1000 years. This timescale is also commensurate with what has been assumed for the CH4- burp 55 million years ago.

Pueschel, Rudolf F.↗

Carbon sequestration of steel slag and carbonation for activating RO phase

Carbonation of Ca/Mg minerals in industrial alkaline residues is a technology to sequester CO{sub 2} and reduce its emissions to the atmosphere. In this work, BSE-EDS were used to determine the mineral phase in steel slag; compositions of RO phase were identified and simulated. The carbon sequestration of steel slag was studied, and RO phase was activated by carbonation. Result shows that the amount of CO{sub 2} sequestered in steel slag and RO phase increases as carbonation time increases. Under autoclaving condition, the hydration ratio of MgO in RO phase was 20.10%. Through carbonation, up to 58.83% of MgO in RO phase can be converted into MgCO{sub 3}, and the activation of RO phase by carbonation was manifested. The mechanical properties and volume stability of carbonated steel slag were improved, proving that the positive effect of carbonation on steel slag when applied in cement and cementitious materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of the atmospheric impact of volcanic eruptions

The dominant global impact of volcanic activity is likely to be related to the effects of volcanic gases on the Earth's atmosphere. Volcanic gas emissions from individual volcanic arc eruptions are likely to cause increases in the stratospheric optical depth that result in surface landmass temperature decline of 2 to 3 K for less than a decade. Trachytic and intermediate magmas are much more effective in this regard than high-silica magmas, and may also lead to extensive ozone depletion due to effect of halogens and magmatic water. Given the assumed relationship between arc volcanism and subduction rate, and the relatively small variation in global spreading rates in the geologic record, it is unlikely that the rates of arc volcanism have varied greatly during the Cenozoic. Hotspot related basaltic fissure eruptions in the subaerial environment have a higher mass yield of sulfur, but lofting of the valcanic aerosol to levels above the tropopause is required for a climate impact. High-latitude events, such as the Laki 1783 eruption can easily penetrate the tropopause and enter the stratosphere, but formation of a stratospheric volcanic aerosol form low-latitude effusive basaltic eruptions is problematical, due to the elevated low-latitude tropopause. Due to the high sulfur content of hotspot-derived basaltic magmas, their very high mass eruption rates and the episodic behavior, hotspots must be regarded as potentially major modifiers of Earth's climate through the action of their volcanic volatiles on the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere.

Sigurdsson, H.↗

Integrating Carbon Capture, Utilization, & Sequestration into Chemical Pulp Mills

The U.S. pulp and paper industry presents a unique and largely untapped opportunity for large- scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Unlike most industrial sectors, pulp mills rely heavily on biomass, meaning that much of their carbon emissions originate from atmospheric CO₂ that was recently captured by plants. If this biogenic CO₂ can be captured and permanently stored, pulp mills can be transformed from carbon emitters into net carbon removal facilities. This project was motivated by that opportunity and aimed to develop and evaluate integrated, low-cost strategies for capturing, utilizing, and sequestering CO₂ within existing chemical pulping operations. The scope of this work focused on four complementary innovations designed to integrate seamlessly into kraft pulp mill infrastructure: (1) in situ CO₂ capture within the recovery cycle, (2) oxy-fuel retrofitting of the rotary lime kiln to produce a high-purity CO₂ stream, (3) ex situ CO₂ capture and mineralization using pulp mill residues (dregs, grits, and lime mud), and (4) beneficial reuse of these residues as mineral carbonate fertilizers. The project combined process modeling, laboratory experimentation, life cycle assessment (LCA), and field trials to evaluate the technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impact of these approaches. The results demonstrate that pulp mills can serve as effective platforms for carbon removal when equipped with integrated carbon capture systems. Process modeling showed that combining sodium spiking with oxy-fuel calcination significantly enhances CO₂ capture efficiency while reducing costs by up to 31% compared to conventional configurations. Experimental work further revealed that calcination behavior in high-CO₂ environments differs substantially from traditional systems, leading to the development of a new kinetic model that predicts reaction rates under these conditions. This model provides essential design guidance for next-generation decarbonized lime kilns. In parallel, the project demonstrated that alkaline mineral residues generated during pulping operations can be repurposed as a sustainable alternative to agricultural lime. Across a wide range of soils in the southeastern United States, these materials performed equivalently to commercial lime in adjusting soil pH while offering lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduced cost. Field and greenhouse studies confirmed that crop and tree growth responses were comparable, supporting their viability as a drop-in replacement. This co-product pathway provides a practical utilization strategy that offsets costs and improves overall system economics. A major contribution of this project is the first comprehensive life cycle assessment of carbon removal in pulp and paper systems across multiple system boundaries. Results show that retrofitted mills can achieve carbon removal efficiencies ranging from 12% to 92%, depending on how the system is defined. This finding highlights a critical issue in carbon accounting: reported performance is highly sensitive to methodological choices. By explicitly quantifying these differences, this work provides valuable guidance for policymakers, carbon registries, and project developers working to standardize carbon removal metrics. From a commercialization perspective, the technologies investigated in this project are well- aligned with existing industrial infrastructure, minimizing the need for entirely new facilities. 3 DE-EE0009413 Industry engagement throughout the project—including collaboration with pulp and paper companies, equipment manufacturers, and carbon removal developers—has accelerated the transition from research to deployment. Notably, a commercial developer is actively pursuing carbon capture projects at pulp mills in the southeastern United States and has cited this research as a contributing foundation. The emergence of voluntary carbon markets and long-term offtake agreements further strengthens the business case for implementation. The broader public benefits of this work are significant. By enabling large-scale carbon removal using existing industrial systems, this approach offers a near-term pathway to reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentrations while supporting domestic manufacturing and rural economies. The reuse of industrial residues as fertilizers reduces reliance on mined materials, lowers costs for farmers, and decreases environmental impacts associated with conventional lime production. In addition, the project has supported workforce development by training graduate students and researchers in carbon capture technologies, helping to build capacity in a critical area of national interest. In conclusion, this project demonstrates that integrated carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration in pulp mills is both technically feasible and economically promising. By combining process innovation, experimental validation, and systems-level analysis, the work advances the understanding of how biomass-based industries can contribute to climate mitigation. The findings provide a strong foundation for commercial deployment and offer a scalable solution for transforming a major U.S. industry into a source of durable carbon removal.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Determination of Combustion Product Radicals in a Hydrocarbon Fueled Rocket Exhaust Plume

The identification of metallic effluent materials in a rocket engine exhaust plume indicates the health of the engine. Since 1989, emission spectroscopy of the plume of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) has been used for ground testing at NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC). This technique allows the identification and quantification of alloys from the metallic elements observed in the plume. With the prospect of hydrocarbon-fueled rocket engines, such as Rocket Propellant 1 (RP-1) or methane (CH4) fueled engines being considered for use in future space flight systems, the contributions of intermediate or final combustion products resulting from the hydrocarbon fuels are of great interest. The effect of several diatomic molecular radicals, such as Carbon Dioxide , Carbon Monoxide, Molecular Carbon, Methylene Radical, Cyanide or Cyano Radical, and Nitric Oxide, needs to be identified and the effects of their band systems on the spectral region from 300 nm to 850 nm determined. Hydrocarbon-fueled rocket engines will play a prominent role in future space exploration programs. Although hydrogen fuel provides for higher engine performance, hydrocarbon fuels are denser, safer to handle, and less costly. For hydrocarbon-fueled engines using RP-1 or CH4 , the plume is different from a hydrogen fueled engine due to the presence of several other species, such as CO2, C2, CO, CH, CN, and NO, in the exhaust plume, in addition to the standard H2O and OH. These species occur as intermediate or final combustion products or as a result of mixing of the hot plume with the atmosphere. Exhaust plume emission spectroscopy has emerged as a comprehensive non-intrusive sensing technology which can be applied to a wide variety of engine performance conditions with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity. Stennis Space Center researchers have been in the forefront of advancing experimental techniques and developing theoretical approaches in order to bring this technology to a more mature stage.

Langford, Lester A.↗

Tracking 2020 Decreases in Carbon Dioxide Due to the COVID19 Pandemic in NASA’s GEOS Modeling system: Implications for Space-Based Carbon Monitoring

The COVID19 pandemic led to abrupt, worldwide changes in human activity and related emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases that are unprecedented in modern times. NASA satellites have demonstrated their ability to observe some of these impacts, particularly in relation to short-lived gases like nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is emitted primarily from transportation. Bottom-up analyses of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions suggest that the growth of atmospheric CO2 has also slowed, but differences are much more subtle than for NO2 because of the lifetime of atmospheric CO2 and sectoral differences in emission reductions. Estimates of CO2 from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) provide a unique view of COVID19 impacts, but observed changes in the column-average CO2 can be difficult to interpret because of gaps in spatial coverage. Assimilating these data into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), an integrated Earth system model with an advanced Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS), helped to reveal changes in CO2 that are consistent with separate, bottom-up analyses of emissions reductions. Both indicate that from February-April of 2020, the growth in CO2 over Europe, North America, and Asia was roughly 0.3 ppm less than during the previous four years. Anomalies derived from gap-filled GEOS OCO-2 CoDAS products contribute to a joint effort by the world’s space agencies to track COVID19 impacts on the Earth. However, attribution of these changes is complicated by interannual variability in atmospheric circulation and the influence of climate on ocean and land carbon sinks. We discuss these results from the perspective of space-based carbon monitoring, which has received considerable support over the past decade from NASA. Our results demonstrate the accomplishments of current sensors and data assimilation systems, but also highlight challenges in providing high quality, low latency information to the public. In particular, understanding and attributing CO2 changes during 2020 requires year-specific information about land and ocean fluxes, which is often delayed for months or even years. We discuss current limitations and potential solutions to address these lags, which would support more reliable and timely space-based carbon monitoring.

COVID-19↗

Influence of background sources and topographic resolution in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on xenon plume characteristics at monitoring stations

For many atmospheric monitoring applications, networks of measurement sites—such as the radionuclide stations of the International Monitoring System—can be sparse. With measurement locations potentially hundreds to thousands of kilometers from a release it is important to quantify the effects of physical processes on transport and dispersion of plumes between source and measurement locations. This study addresses the effects of background sources and topography resolution near the release location of radionuclides. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with inline chemistry to investigate (1) how an additional, time-varying source of 133 Xe, such as an operational medical isotope production facility, contributes to activity concentration measurements at monitoring sites, and (2) how complex topography influences on atmospheric conditions near emission sources impact plume concentrations at varying distances from the source. Two 133 Xe emission sources, including (1) a high flux rate of short duration representing an explosive event, and (2) a variable and continuous background source, are simulated. The continuous background source contributes significantly to total 133 Xe concentrations at several monitoring stations. Further, a WRF simulation at 9 km horizontal resolution is compared with a nested grid simulation, where the innermost domain has a resolution of 1 km. Increased topographic resolution leads to an improved representation of plume responses to local winds, with topographic influences greatest at locations closest to the sources. Differences between the two domain resolutions decrease at greater distances from the sources, as plumes have time to spread and mix and are influenced by synoptic scale circulation patterns that are represented similarly in both simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In situ observations in aircraft exhaust plumes in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes

The effect of NO(x) (NO + NO2) from aircraft engine exhaust on ozone and climate is of increasing concern as a result of anticipated growth in the world's subsonic aircraft fleet and new international efforts to build a supersonic transport (SST). Knowledge of NO(x) emissions currently relies on limited ground based testing of combustors and engines and on scaling relations to extrapolate emission values to upper atmosphere conditions. Direct observations made in the engine exhaust plume of the NASA ER-2 high altitude aircraft cruising at subsonic speeds in the lower midlatitude stratosphere are presented. Results demonstrate the technical feasibility of detecting aircraft plumes within minutes after emission with sufficient completeness and precision to calculate emission indices for reactive nitrogen and other species. Furthermore, the combined results increase confidence in using ground based observations to assess the atmospheric impact of some aircraft emissions.

Fahey, David W.↗

Emissions measurements for a lean premixed propane/air system at pressures up to 30 atmospheres

A series of experiments was conducted in which the emissions of a lean premixed system of propane and air were measured at pressures of 5, 10, 20 and 30 atm in a flametube apparatus. Measurements were made for inlet temperatures between 600K and 1000K and combustor residence times from 1.0 to 3.0 msec. A schematic of the test rig is presented along with graphs showing emissions measurements for nitric oxide, carbon monoxide, and UHC as functions of bustor residence time for various equivalence ratios, entrance temperatures and pressures; typical behavior of emissions as a function of equivalence ratio for a fixed residence time. Correlations of nitric oxide emission index with adiabatic flame temperature for a fixed residence time of 2 msec and pressures from 5 to 30 atm; and adiabatic flame temperature corresponding to CO breakpoint conditions for 2 msec residence time as a function of inlet temperature.

Roffe, G.↗

Identifying biomass yield potential of tetra, hexa, and octoploid prairie cordgrass populations grown on marginal lands

As the demand for renewable energy sources with reduced carbon emissions to the atmosphere increases, bioenergy crops remain an attractive alternative to fossil fuels. Another appeal of bioenergy crops is the potential utilization of marginal lands not suitable for food crops. Prairie cordgrass is a perennial warm season polyploid grass species being considered as a bioenergy crop that also exhibits a high tolerance for salinity and flooding. The ploidy level of prairie cordgrass has previously been suggested to correlate with agronomic traits. However, little is known about the agricultural performance of prairie cordgrass on marginal lands and if a correlation of ploidy level to stress tolerance exists. In this experiment, the productivity of tetraploids, hexaploids, and octoploids was investigated when grown on three different marginal sites including waterlogged, saline, and low-nutrient gravelly soils. Here we found that prairie cordgrass populations annually produced dry biomass on a wet marginal site comparable to normal cropland. However, the productivity was remarkedly decreased at both a salt-affected site and a limestone mine reclamation site. We were unable to conclude that different ploidy levels affected the biomass yield of prairie cordgrass grown under abiotic stress. However, there was a differential response of populations to various types of marginal sites. Finally, these results indicate potential genetic resources for developing breeding targets and identifying mechanisms of abiotic stress tolerance. Moreover, we highlight the need to generate diverse ploidy levels of prairie cordgrass in the same genetic backgrounds for future testing.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mapping existing wellbore locations to compare technical risks between onshore and offshore CCS activities in Texas

Carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage (CCS; geologic sequestration) is a promising technology for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from industrial point sources. Aspects of CCS have been investigated for over two decades, and many large- and small-scale geologic storage field demonstration projects are now underway globally. Interest in offshore CCS has been increasing in recent years (e.g., European Union, Australia, Japan, and the United States). Deep geologic storage in offshore settings is analogous to onshore CCS activities in many respects (i.e., geologic and geotechnical aspects), but is distinct from previously explored seabed sediment CO 2 storage) or deep marine dissolution). Given the large subsurface geologic storage volumes available in offshore settings, much discussion of offshore CCS is focused on the benefits and risks of such activity compared to onshore settings. Similar to onshore settings, existing (legacy) wells likely present the most direct migration pathway and largest risk of noncontainment in offshore settings. As part of current studies to evaluate geologic storage options in offshore settings along the Texas coast and greater Gulf of Mexico (GoM), mapping of the geographic distribution and ages of wells in a region containing coastal counties and extending 30 miles offshore Texas indicates that both well spatial density and well age decrease moving from onshore to offshore. Results suggest reduced risk of leakage owing to more rigorous and documented well completion and abandonment practices for these generally younger wells (although many are decades old). A result of decreased well density is that larger areas are available for leasing for CCS projects that avoid legacy wells altogether (> 1 mile from any existing well). The one-mile designation is used as an arbitrary convention, and while it is recognized that this is smaller than a typical area of review (AoR) for permitting, each site will have a different AoR radius for consideration. Finally, the combination of large subsurface storage volumes under control of a single landowner and reduced risks from legacy wells makes offshore CCS attractive in the GoM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Techno-economic analysis of carbon dioxide capture from low concentration sources using membranes

Rising carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels in the atmosphere lead to global warming, causing climate change. As such, carbon capture has become necessary to slow the increase and reduce CO 2 levels in the atmosphere. Point source emissions have a wide range of CO 2 concentrations, but emissions below 3% CO 2 have mostly been ignored because Carbon capture from these sources has been viewed as costly and economically unsustainable. Membrane technologies are considered the most viable solution by virtue of more energy-efficient operation. Our group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed poly[bis((2-methoxyethoxy)ethoxy)phosphazene] (MEEP)-based carbon dioxide selective membranes with CO 2 /N 2 selectivity greater than 40 and CO 2 permeability greater than 450 Barrer. To understand the economics of carbon capture, a spreadsheet-based techno-economic analysis (TEA) model was developed to consider multiple parameters, including selectivity and permeability of the membranes, performance conditions such as the number of stages, module material, electricity price, membrane price, and capital financing. The cost of carbon capture in US $\$$/metric ton was calculated at various purities and compared with other membrane processes, cryogenic capture, solvent-based capture, and pressure swing adsorption-based capture. It was determined that a MEEP-based three-stage process had a capture cost of US $\$$ 50.1/metric ton for 99.8% purity CO 2 from a 1% CO 2 feed source in nitrogen (N 2 ). In conclusion, the capture cost using the best performing Pebax-based membrane was 464% higher, cryogenic capture was 60%–140% higher, pressure swing adsorption was 55%–165% higher, and chemical absorption was -10%–110% higher than MEEP-based membrane capture, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Data-driven simultaneous process optimization and adsorbent selection for vacuum pressure swing adsorption

Technologies for post-combustion carbon capture are essential for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. However, they are still associated with high costs and energy consumption. Intensified processes for carbon capture have the potential to overcome these challenges due to their higher efficiency, lower capital cost, and increased operational flexibility. Here, this work investigates simultaneous optimization of process conditions and adsorbent selection for a modular Vacuum Pressure-Swing Adsorption system designed for CO 2 capture. Both surrogate-based Nonlinear Programming and Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming approaches are applied and compared in terms of computational efficiency and solution accuracy. Moreover, process performance results are examined by applying several data analytics techniques to gain insights into the material-process correlations. Data-driven classifiers and neural networks can accurately predict whether a material is likely to satisfy purity, recovery, and energy constraints when operated at optimal process conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NRAP-open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated-assessment-model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management

Large-scale implementation of geologic carbon storage (GCS) to help reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions requires stakeholder confidence that injected CO2 will remain contained and that potential subsurface environmental risks are acceptably small and manageable. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed an open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to help address questions about a potential GCS site’s ability to effectively contain injected CO 2 and protect groundwater and other overlying environmentally sensitive receptors. NRAP-Open-IAM allows a user to: (1) incorporate relevant site geologic and injection scenario data; (2) characterize important site features and events;(3) couple fast prediction models of various system components of the engineered geologic system; and (4) execute stochastic, dynamic simulation of whole GCS system performance, leakage risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. NRAP-Open-IAM is available on GitLab (https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM), and is accompanied by multiple application examples and detailed user and developer guides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal and solubility effects on fault leakage during geologic carbon storage

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising method for reducing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. To safely deploy GCS in the field, it is necessary to assess risks and the effect of uncertainty on safe storage. The effect of uncertainty can be quantified using batches of simulations, but the high computational costs of high-resolution simulations necessitate use of reduced-order models (ROMs). Previous work involves ROMs for quantifying the risk of different potential leakage paths from storage reservoirs to shallow formations. However, previous studies on development of fault-leakage ROMs have limited numbers of uncertain parameters and do not explicitly examine impacts of CO 2 solubility and thermal stresses on fault reactivation, which can generate high-permeability pathways and compromise CO 2 storage. Here, we analyze an ensemble of simulations considering CO 2 leakage from a storage reservoir to a shallow aquifer through a fault while varying a number of uncertain parameters related to thermo-hydro-mechanical properties and CO 2 injection. We show the effects of solubility on: free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates, brine-leakage rates, and poroelastic fault destabilization. We find that CO 2 solubility is more important for estimating free-phase CO 2 -leakage rates compared to brine-leakage rates or poroelastic fault destabilization. We also find that thermal stresses and overpressures have different spatial distributions within the fault, indicating that the spatial variability of overpressures due to variation in flow parameters does not necessarily make the spatial variability of thermal stresses negligible. We suggest the use of the CO 2 phase-change path as a variable in future fault-leakage ROMs.

03 NATURAL GAS↗