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Firing behavior of vestibular neurons during active and passive head movements: vestibulo-spinal and other non-eye-movement related neurons

The firing behavior of 51 non-eye movement related central vestibular neurons that were sensitive to passive head rotation in the plane of the horizontal semicircular canal was studied in three squirrel monkeys whose heads were free to move in the horizontal plane. Unit sensitivity to active head movements during spontaneous gaze saccades was compared with sensitivity to passive head rotation. Most units (29/35 tested) were activated at monosynaptic latencies following electrical stimulation of the ipsilateral vestibular nerve. Nine were vestibulo-spinal units that were antidromically activated following electrical stimulation of the ventromedial funiculi of the spinal cord at C1. All of the units were less sensitive to active head movements than to passive whole body rotation. In the majority of cells (37/51, 73%), including all nine identified vestibulo-spinal units, the vestibular signals related to active head movements were canceled. The remaining units (n = 14, 27%) were sensitive to active head movements, but their responses were attenuated by 20-75%. Most units were nearly as sensitive to passive head-on-trunk rotation as they were to whole body rotation; this suggests that vestibular signals related to active head movements were cancelled primarily by subtraction of a head movement efference copy signal. The sensitivity of most units to passive whole body rotation was unchanged during gaze saccades. A fundamental feature of sensory processing is the ability to distinguish between self-generated and externally induced sensory events. Our observations suggest that the distinction is made at an early stage of processing in the vestibular system.

Non-NASA Center↗

Higher sympathetic nerve activity during ventricular (VVI) than during dual-chamber (DDD) pacing

OBJECTIVES: We determined the short-term effects of single-chamber ventricular pacing and dual-chamber atrioventricular (AV) pacing on directly measured sympathetic nerve activity. BACKGROUND: Dual-chamber AV cardiac pacing results in greater cardiac output and lower systemic vascular resistance than does single-chamber ventricular pacing. However, it is unclear whether these hemodynamic advantages result in less sympathetic nervous system outflow. METHODS: In 13 patients with a dual-chamber pacemaker, we recorded the electrocardiogram, noninvasive arterial pressure (Finapres), respiration and muscle sympathetic nerve activity (microneurography) during 3 min of underlying basal heart rate and 3 min of ventricular and AV pacing at rates of 60 and 100 beats/min. RESULTS: Arterial pressure was lowest and muscle sympathetic nerve activity was highest at the underlying basal heart rate. Arterial pressure increased with cardiac pacing and was greater with AV than with ventricular pacing (change in mean blood pressure +/- SE: 10 +/- 3 vs. 2 +/- 2 mm Hg at 60 beats/min; 21 +/- 5 vs. 14 +/- 2 mm Hg at 100 beats/min; p < 0.05). Sympathetic nerve activity decreased with cardiac pacing and the decline was greater with AV than with ventricular pacing (60 beats/min -40 +/- 11% vs. -17 +/- 7%; 100 beats/min -60 +/- 9% vs. -48 +/- 10%; p < 0.05). Although most patients showed a strong inverse relation between arterial pressure and muscle sympathetic nerve activity, three patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction (ejection fraction < or = 30%) showed no relation between arterial pressure and sympathetic activity. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term AV pacing results in lower sympathetic nerve activity and higher arterial pressure than does ventricular pacing, indicating that cardiac pacing mode may influence sympathetic outflow simply through arterial baroreflex mechanisms. We speculate that the greater incidence of adverse outcomes in patients treated with single-chamber ventricular rather than dual-chamber pacing may be due in part to increased sympathetic nervous outflow.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Advanced Active-Magnetic-Bearing Thrust-Measurement System

An advanced thrust-measurement system utilizes active magnetic bearings to both (1) levitate a floating frame in all six degrees of freedom and (2) measure the levitation forces between the floating frame and a grounded frame. This system was developed for original use in measuring the thrust exerted by a rocket engine mounted on the floating frame, but can just as well be used in other force-measurement applications. This system offers several advantages over prior thrust-measurement systems based on mechanical support by flexures and/or load cells: The system includes multiple active magnetic bearings for each degree of freedom, so that by selective use of one, some, or all of these bearings, it is possible to test a given article over a wide force range in the same fixture, eliminating the need to transfer the article to different test fixtures to obtain the benefit of full-scale accuracy of different force-measurement devices for different force ranges. Like other active magnetic bearings, the active magnetic bearings of this system include closed-loop control subsystems, through which the stiffness and damping characteristics of the magnetic bearings can be modified electronically. The design of the system minimizes or eliminates cross-axis force-measurement errors. The active magnetic bearings are configured to provide support against movement along all three orthogonal Cartesian axes, and such that the support along a given axis does not produce force along any other axis. Moreover, by eliminating the need for such mechanical connections as flexures used in prior thrust-measurement systems, magnetic levitation of the floating frame eliminates what would otherwise be major sources of cross-axis forces and the associated measurement errors. Overall, relative to prior mechanical-support thrust-measurement systems, this system offers greater versatility for adaptation to a variety of test conditions and requirements. The basic idea of most prior active-magnetic-bearing force-measurement systems is to calculate levitation forces on the basis of simple proportionalities between changes in those forces and changes in feedback-controlled currents applied to levitating electromagnetic coils. In the prior systems, the effects of gap lengths on fringing magnetic fields and the concomitant effects on magnetic forces were neglected. In the present system, the control subsystems of the active magnetic bearings are coupled with a computer-based automatic calibration system running special-purpose software wherein gap-length-dependent fringing factors are applied to current and magnetic-flux-based force equations and combined with a multipoint calibration method to obtain greater accuracy.

Imlach, Joseph↗

Regolith Activation on the Lunar Surface and its Ground Test Simulation

Activation of the surfaces of lunar regolith particles can occur through interactions with solar electromagnetic radiation, solar and galactic particle radiation and micrometeoroid bombardment. An attempt has been made to quantify the relative importance of each of those effects. The effects of these activated surfaces may be to enhance the adhesion and toxicity of the particles. Also key to the importance of activation is the lifetimes of activated states in various environments which is controlled by their passivation rate as well as their activation rate. Although techniques exist to characterize the extent of activation of particles in biological system, it is important to be able to quantify the activation state on the lunar surface, in ground-test vacuum systems, and in habitat atmospheres as well.

Gaier, James R.↗

MSLICE Science Activity Planner for the Mars Science Laboratory Mission

MSLICE (Mars Science Laboratory InterfaCE) is the tool used by scientists and engineers on the Mars Science Laboratory rover mission to visualize the data returned by the rover and collaboratively plan its activities. It enables users to efficiently and effectively search all mission data to find applicable products (e.g., images, targets, activity plans, sequences, etc.), view and plan the traverse of the rover in HiRISE (High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment) images, visualize data acquired by the rover, and develop, model, and validate the activities the rover will perform. MSLICE enables users to securely contribute to the mission s activity planning process from their home institutions using off-the-shelf laptop computers. This software has made use of several plug-ins (software components) developed for previous missions [e.g., Mars Exploration Rover (MER), Phoenix Mars Lander (PHX)] and other technology tasks. It has a simple, intuitive, and powerful search capability. For any given mission, there is a huge amount of data and associated metadata that is generated. To help users sort through this information, MSLICE s search interface is provided in a similar fashion as major Internet search engines. With regard to the HiRISE visualization of the rover s traverse, this view is a map of the mission that allows scientists to easily gauge where the rover has been and where it is likely to go. The map also provides the ability to correct or adjust the known position of the rover through the overlaying of images acquired from the rover on top of the HiRISE image. A user can then correct the rover s position by collocating the visible features in the overlays with the same features in the underlying HiRISE image. MSLICE users can also rapidly search all mission data for images that contain a point specified by the user in another image or panoramic mosaic. MSLICE allows the creation of targets, which provides a way for scientists to collaboratively name features on the surface of Mars. These targets can also be used to convey instrument-pointing information to the activity plan. The software allows users to develop a plan of what they would like the rover to accomplish for a given time period. When developing the plan, the user can input constraints between activities or groups of activities. MSLICE will enforce said constraints and ensure that all mission flight rules are satisfied.

Powell, Mark W.↗

Active Flap Control of the SMART Rotor for Vibration Reduction

Active control methodologies were applied to a full-scale active flap rotor obtained during a joint Boeing/ DARPA/NASA/Army test in the Air Force National Full-Scale Aerodynamic Complex 40- by 80-foot anechoic wind tunnel. The active flap rotor is a full-scale MD 900 helicopter main rotor with each of its five blades modified to include an on-blade piezoelectric actuator-driven flap with a span of 18% of radius, 25% of chord, and located at 83% radius. Vibration control demonstrated the potential of active flaps for effective control of vibratory loads, especially normal force loads. Active control of normal force vibratory loads using active flaps and a continuous-time higher harmonic control algorithm was very effective, reducing harmonic (1-5P) normal force vibratory loads by 95% in both cruise and approach conditions. Control of vibratory roll and pitch moments was also demonstrated, although moment control was less effective than normal force control. Finally, active control was used to precisely control blade flap position for correlation with pretest predictions of rotor aeroacoustics. Flap displacements were commanded to follow specific harmonic profiles of 2 deg or more in amplitude, and the flap deflection errors obtained were less than 0.2 deg r.m.s.

Hall, Steven R.↗

Active Learning with Irrelevant Examples

An improved active learning method has been devised for training data classifiers. One example of a data classifier is the algorithm used by the United States Postal Service since the 1960s to recognize scans of handwritten digits for processing zip codes. Active learning algorithms enable rapid training with minimal investment of time on the part of human experts to provide training examples consisting of correctly classified (labeled) input data. They function by identifying which examples would be most profitable for a human expert to label. The goal is to maximize classifier accuracy while minimizing the number of examples the expert must label. Although there are several well-established methods for active learning, they may not operate well when irrelevant examples are present in the data set. That is, they may select an item for labeling that the expert simply cannot assign to any of the valid classes. In the context of classifying handwritten digits, the irrelevant items may include stray marks, smudges, and mis-scans. Querying the expert about these items results in wasted time or erroneous labels, if the expert is forced to assign the item to one of the valid classes. In contrast, the new algorithm provides a specific mechanism for avoiding querying the irrelevant items. This algorithm has two components: an active learner (which could be a conventional active learning algorithm) and a relevance classifier. The combination of these components yields a method, denoted Relevance Bias, that enables the active learner to avoid querying irrelevant data so as to increase its learning rate and efficiency when irrelevant items are present. The algorithm collects irrelevant data in a set of rejected examples, then trains the relevance classifier to distinguish between labeled (relevant) training examples and the rejected ones. The active learner combines its ranking of the items with the probability that they are relevant to yield a final decision about which item to present to the expert for labeling. Experiments on several data sets have demonstrated that the Relevance Bias approach significantly decreases the number of irrelevant items queried and also accelerates learning speed.

Wagstaff, Kiri↗

Regolith Activation on the Lunar Surface and Its Ground Test Simulation

Activation of the surfaces of lunar regolith particles can occur through interactions with solar electromagnetic radiation, solar and galactic particle radiation and micrometeoroid bombardment. An attempt has been made to quantify the relative importance of each of those effects. The effects of these activated surfaces may be to enhance the adhesion and toxicity of the particles. Also key to the importance of activation is the lifetimes of activated states in various environments which is controlled by their passivation rate as well as their activation rate. Although techniques exist to characterize the extent of activation of particles in biological system, it is important to be able to quantify the activation state on the lunar surface, in ground-test vacuum systems, and in habitat atmospheres as well.

Gaier, James R.↗

Enceladus: An Active Cryovolcanic Satellite

Enceladus is one of the most remarkable satellites in the solar system, as revealed by Cassini's detection of active plumes erupting from warm fractures near its south pole. This discovery makes Enceladus the only icy satellite known to exhibit ongoing internally driven geological activity. The activity is presumably powered by tidal heating maintained by Enceladus 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Dione, but many questions remain. For instance, it appears difficult or impossible to maintain the currently observed radiated power (probably at least 6 GW) in steady state. It is also not clear how Enceladus first entered its current self-maintaining warm and dissipative state initial heating from non-tidal sources is probably required. There are also many unanswered questions about Enceladus interior. The silicate fraction inferred from its density of 1.68 g per cubic centimeter is probably differentiated into a core, though we have only indirect evidence for differentiation. Above the core there is probably a global or regional water layer, inferred from several models of tidal heating, and an ice shell thick enough to support the ~1 kilometer amplitude topography seen on Enceladus. It is possible that dissipation is largely localized beneath the south polar region. Enceladus surface geology, ranging from moderately cratered terrain to the virtually crater-free active south polar region, is highly diverse, tectonically complex, and remarkably symmetrical about the rotation axis and the direction to Saturn. South polar activity is concentrated along the four tiger stripe fractures, which radiate heat at temperatures up to at least 167 K and are the source of multiple plumes ejecting ~200 kilograms per second of H2O vapor along with significant N2 (or C2H4), CO2, CH4, NH3, and higher-mass hydrocarbons. The escaping gas maintains Saturn's neutral gas torus, and the plumes also eject a large number of micron-sized H2O ice grains that populate Saturn's E-ring. The mechanism that powers the plumes is not well understood, and whether liquid water is involved is a subject of active debate (but likely nonetheless). Enceladus provides a promising potential habitat for life in the outer solar system, and the active plumes allow the unique opportunity for direct sampling of that zone. Enceladus is thus a prime target for Cassini's continued exploration of the Saturn system, and will be a tempting target for future missions.

Spencer, J. R.↗

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗

Whole Blood Activation Results in Enhanced Detection of T Cell and Monocyte Cytokine Production by Flow Cytometry

An excellent monitor of the immune balance of peripheral circulating cells is to determine their cytokine production patterns in response to stimuli. Using flow cytometry a positive identification of cytokine producing cells in a mixed culture may be achieved. Recently, the ability to assess cytokine production following a wholeblood activation culture has been described. We compared whole blood culture to standard PBMC culture and determined the individual cytokine secretion patterns for both T cells and monocytes via flow cytometry. For T cells cytokine assessment following PMA +ionomycin activation: (1) a significantly greater percentages of T cells producing IFNgamma and IL-2 were observed following whole-blood culture; (2) altered T cell cytokine production kinetics were observed by varying whole blood culture times. In addition, a four-color cytometric analysis was used to allow accurate phenotyping and quantitation of cytokine producing lymphocyte populations. Using this technique we found IFNgamma production to be significantly elevated in the CD3+/CD8+ T cell population as compared to the CD3+/CD8- population following five hours of whole blood activation. Conversely, IL-2 and IL-10 production were significantly elevated in the CD3+/CD8- T cell population as compared to the CD3+/CD8+ population. Monocyte cytokine production was assessed in both culture systems following LPS activation for 24 hours. A three-color flow cytometric was used to assess two cytokines in conjunction with CD 14. The cytokine pairs used for analysis were IL-1a/IL-12, and IL-10ITNFa. Nearly all monocytes were stimulated to produce IL-1a, IL-12 and TNFalpha equally well in both culture systems. Monocyte production of IL-10 was significantly elevated following whole blood culture as compared to PBMC culture. IL-12 producing monocytes appeared to be a distinct subpopulation of the IL-1a producing set, whereas IL-10 and TNFa producing monocytes were largely mutually exclusive. IL-10 and TNFa producing monocytes may represent functionally different monocyte subsets with distinct functions. Whole blood culture eliminates the need to purify cell populations prior to culture and may have significant utility for the routine monitoring of the cytokine balances of the peripheral blood T cell and monocyte populations. In addition, there are distinct advantages to performing whole-blood (WB) activation as compared to PBMC activation. These advantages would include retaining all various cell-cell interactions as well as any soluble factors present in serum that influence cell activation. It is likely that the altered cytokine production observed following whole blood culture more accurately represents the in-vivo immune balance.

Sams, Clarence F.↗

Video Guidance Sensors Using Remotely Activated Targets

Four updated video guidance sensor (VGS) systems have been proposed. As described in a previous NASA Tech Briefs article, a VGS system is an optoelectronic system that provides guidance for automated docking of two vehicles. The VGS provides relative position and attitude (6-DOF) information between the VGS and its target. In the original intended application, the two vehicles would be spacecraft, but the basic principles of design and operation of the system are applicable to aircraft, robots, objects maneuvered by cranes, or other objects that may be required to be aligned and brought together automatically or under remote control. In the first two of the four VGS systems as now proposed, the tracked vehicle would include active targets that would light up on command from the tracking vehicle, and a video camera on the tracking vehicle would be synchronized with, and would acquire images of, the active targets. The video camera would also acquire background images during the periods between target illuminations. The images would be digitized and the background images would be subtracted from the illuminated-target images. Then the position and orientation of the tracked vehicle relative to the tracking vehicle would be computed from the known geometric relationships among the positions of the targets in the image, the positions of the targets relative to each other and to the rest of the tracked vehicle, and the position and orientation of the video camera relative to the rest of the tracking vehicle. The major difference between the first two proposed systems and prior active-target VGS systems lies in the techniques for synchronizing the flashing of the active targets with the digitization and processing of image data. In the prior active-target VGS systems, synchronization was effected, variously, by use of either a wire connection or the Global Positioning System (GPS). In three of the proposed VGS systems, the synchronizing signal would be generated on, and transmitted from, the tracking vehicle. In the first proposed VGS system, the tracking vehicle would transmit a pulse of light. Upon reception of the pulse, circuitry on the tracked vehicle would activate the target lights. During the pulse, the target image acquired by the camera would be digitized. When the pulse was turned off, the target lights would be turned off and the background video image would be digitized. The second proposed system would function similarly to the first proposed system, except that the transmitted synchronizing signal would be a radio pulse instead of a light pulse. In this system, the signal receptor would be a rectifying antenna. If the signal contained sufficient power, the output of the rectifying antenna could be used to activate the target lights, making it unnecessary to include a battery or other power supply for the targets on the tracked vehicle.

Bryan, Thomas C.↗

Hysteresis in the Active Oxidation of SiC

Si and SiC show both passive oxidation behavior where a protective film of SiO2 forms and active oxidation behavior where a volatile suboxide SiO(g) forms. The active-to-passive and passive-to-active oxidation transitions are explored for both Si and SiC. Si shows a dramatic difference between the P(O2) for the two transitions of ~10-4 bar. The active-to-passive transition is controlled by the condition for SiO2/Si equilibrium and the passive-to-active transition is controlled by the decomposition of SiO2. In the case of SiC, the P(O2) for these transitions are much closer. The active-to-passive transition appears to be controlled by the condition for SiO2/SiC equilibrium. The passive-to-active transition appears to be controlled by the interfacial reaction of SiC and SiO2 and subsequent generation of gases at the interface which leads to scale breakdown.

Jacobson, Nathan S.↗

Observational Evidence of Aerosol Enhancement of Lightning Activity and Convective Invigoration

Lightning activity over the West Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines is usually much less frequent than over the nearby maritime continents. However, in 2005 the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) aboard the TRMM satellite observed anomalously high lightning activity in that area. In the same year the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measured anomalously high aerosol loading. The high aerosol loading was traced to volcanic activity, and not to any factor linked to meteorology, disentangling the usual convolution between aerosols and meteorology. We show that in general lightning activity is tightly correlated with aerosol loadings at both inter-annual and biweekly time scales. We estimate that a approximately 60% increase in aerosol loading leads to more than 150% increase in lightning flashes. Aerosols increase lightning activity through modification of cloud microphysics. Cloud ice particle sizes are reduced and cloud glaciation is delayed to colder temperature when aerosol loading is increased. TRMM precipitation radar measurements indicate that anomalously high aerosol loading is associated with enhanced cloud mixed phase activity and invigorated convection over the maritime ocean. These observed associations between aerosols, cloud microphysics, morphology and lightning activity are not related to meteorological variables or ENSO events. The results have important implications for understanding the variability of lightning and resulting aerosol-chemistry interactions.

Yuan, Tianle↗

Active Oxidation of a UHTC-Based CMC

The active oxidation of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) is a severe problem that must be avoided for multi-use hypersonic vehicles. Much work has been performed studying the active oxidation of silicon-based CMCs such as C/SiC and SiC-coated carbon/carbon (C/C). Ultra high temperature ceramics (UTHC) have been proposed as a possible material solution for high-temperature applications on hypersonic vehicles. However, little work has been performed studying the active oxidation of UHTCs. The intent of this paper is to present test data indicating an active oxidation process for a UHTC-based CMC similar to the active oxidation observed with Si-based CMCs. A UHTC-based CMC was tested in the HyMETS arc-jet facility (or plasma wind tunnel, PWT) at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA. The coupon was tested at a nominal surface temperature of 3000 F (1650 C), with a stagnation pressure of 0.026 atm. A sudden and large increase in surface temperature was noticed with negligible increase in the heat flux, indicative of the onset of active oxidation. It is shown that the surface conditions, both temperature and pressure, fall within the region for a passive to active transition (PAT) of the oxidation.

Glass, David E.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Management and Climate Contributions to Satellite-Derived Active Fire Trends in the Contiguous United States

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4 percent per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77 percent of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9 percent per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.

Satellite-derived↗