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On the characterization of biases arising from methods and approximations used for sensitivity analyses

The preliminary assessment of the performance and safety of advanced reactors, as well as the identification of research and development needs, rely on computer simulations due to the lack of operational experience. Those simulations should be based on verified and validated computational tools, calculation schemes, and nuclear data libraries, and should be accompanied of a proper characterization of the involved uncertainties, providing confidence in the computational-based predictions. Thus, sensitivity and uncertainty studies, together with integral experiments, play an essential role in that process. Sensitivities are then a critical element and guidelines about how to produce accurate enough sensitivities depending on the subsequent analyses to be performed are of interest. The present study addresses the sensitivities biases arising from the use of different nuclear data libraries, computational methods and the assumption of modelling simplifications. Not only sensitivities for multiplication factor but also for safety-relevant reactivity responses have been analyzed. In the study, propagated uncertainties are also included for the considered parameters to illustrate the impact of the sensitivity profiles obtained for each case on the final uncertainty. Then, relevant recommendations are given for sensitivity analyses of highly complex systems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Streaming Matching and Edge Cover in Practice

Graph algorithms with polynomial space and time requirements often become infeasible for massive graphs with billions of edges or more. State-of-the-art approaches therefore employ approximate serial, parallel, and distributed algorithms to tackle these challenges. However, such approaches require storing the entire graph in memory and thus need access to costly computing resources such as clusters and supercomputers. In this paper, we present practical streaming approaches for solving massive graph problems using limited memory for two prototypical graph problems: maximum weighted matching and minimum weighted edge cover. For matching, we conduct a thorough computational study on two of the semi-streaming algorithms including a recent breakthrough result that achieves a $1/(2+\varepsilon)$-approximation of the weight while using $O( n \log W /\epsilon)$ memory (here $n$ is the number of vertices and $W$ is the maximum edge weight), designed by Paz and Schwartzman [SODA, 2017]. Empirically, we show that the semi-streaming algorithms produce matchings whose weight is close to the best $1/2$-approximate offline algorithm while requiring less time and an order-of-magnitude less memory. For minimum weighted edge cover, we develop three novel semi-streaming algorithms. Two of these algorithms require a single pass through the input graph, require $O(n \log n)$ memory, and provide a 2-approximation guarantee on the objective. We also leverage a relationship between approximate maximum weighted matching and approximate minimum weighted edge cover to develop a two-pass $3/2+\epsilon$-approximate algorithm with the memory requirement of Paz and Schwartzman's semi-streaming matching algorithm. These streaming approaches are compared against the state-of-the-art 3/2-approximate offline algorithm. The semi-streaming matching and the novel edge cover algorithms proposed in this paper can process graphs with several billions of edges in under 30 minutes using 6 GB of memory, which is at least an order of magnitude improvement from the offline (non-streaming) algorithms. For the largest graph, the best alternative offline parallel approximation algorithm (GPA+ROMA) could not finish in three hours even while employing hundreds of processors and 1 TB of memory. We also demonstrate an application of the semi-streaming algorithm by computing a matching using linearly bounded memory on item intersection graphs derived from three machine learning datasets, whereas the existing offline algorithms could not complete on one of these datasets since their memory requirements exceeded 1TB.

Ferdous, S M.↗

How good are learning-based control v.s. model-based control for load shifting? Investigations on a single zone building energy system

Both model predictive control (MPC) and deep reinforcement learning control (DRL) have been presented as a way to approximate the true optimality of a dynamic programming problem, and these two have shown significant operational cost saving potentials for building energy systems. Furthermore, there is still a lack of in-depth quantitative studies on their approximation levels to the true optimality, especially in the building energy domain. To fill in the gap, this paper provides a numerical framework that enables the evaluation of the optimality levels of different controllers for building energy systems. This framework is then used to comprehensively compare the optimal control performance of both MPC and DRL controllers with given computation budgets for a single zone fan coil unit system. Note the optimality is estimated based on a user-specific selection of trade-off weights among energy costs, thermal comfort and control slew rates. Compared with the best optimality we can find through expensive optimization simulations, the best DRL agent can maximally approximate the optimality by 96.54%, which outperforms the best MPC whose optimality level is 90.11%. However, due to the stochasticity, the DRL agent is only expected to approximate the optimality by 90.42%, which is almost equivalent to the best MPC. Except for Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), all DRL agents can have a better approximation to the optimality than the best MPC, and are expected to have better approximation than the MPC with a prediction horizon of 32 steps (15 min per step). In terms of reducing energy cost and thermal discomfort, MPC can outperform the rule-based control (RBC) by 18.47%–25.44%. DRL can be expected to outperform RBC by 18.95%–25.65% ,and the best DRL control policy can outperform RBC by 20.29%–29.72%. Although the comparison of the optimality level is performed in a perfect setting, e.g., MPC assumes perfect models, and DRL assumes a perfect offline training process and online deployment process, this can shed insight on their capabilities of approximating to the original dynamic programming problem.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Iterative Stability Enforcement in Adaptive Antoulas–Anderson Algorithms for \({\boldsymbol{\mathcal{H}_2}}\) Model Reduction

This paper presents an extension of the Adaptive-Antoulas-Anderson (AAA) algorithm for rational modelling. Specifically, our new stable multi-input multi-output AAA (smiAAA) algorithm builds rational approximations of multi-input signals with a common set of stable poles. A new methodology is presented for iteratively enforcing stability constraints on the poles. We demonstrate the strengths of this approach compared to the stability enforcement in the FastAAA algorithm. Results using the smiAAA algorithm are compared with the commonly used Vector Fitting algorithm and the more recently published RKFIT algorithm. Vector Fitting and RKFIT both require the user to input the number of poles to use in the approximations. If the final approximation is not accurate enough, the user must re-start Vector Fitting or RKFIT with a larger number of poles and/or a new starting location for the poles. In contrast, the smiAAA algorithm is designed to allow the user to simply input the desired accuracy of the approximations, and the necessary number of poles is detected automatically. This permits users to produce approximations of a desired accuracy with no knowledge about the underlying order of the system being approximated, preventing the algorithm from ever needing to be rerun. An additional feature for preventing extraneous poles from being returned by AAA is also discussed. The cause of these extraneous poles is efficiently detected and removed by our presented methodology. In conclusion, the examples presented demonstrate that smiAAA can efficiently produce approximations of similar or better accuracy than Vector Fitting and RKFIT while requiring less input from the user.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Beyond Fisher forecasting for cosmology

The planning and design of future experiments rely heavily on forecasting to assess the potential scientific value provided by a hypothetical set of measurements. The Fisher information matrix, due to its convenient properties and low computational cost, provides an especially useful forecasting tool. However, the Fisher matrix only provides a reasonable approximation to the true likelihood when data are nearly Gaussian distributed and observables have nearly linear dependence on the parameters of interest. Also, Fisher forecasting techniques alone cannot be used to assess their own validity. Thorough sampling of the exact or mock likelihood can definitively determine whether a Fisher forecast is valid, though such sampling is often prohibitively expensive. Here we propose a simple test, based on the Derivative Approximation for likelihoods (DALI) technique, to determine whether the Fisher matrix provides a good approximation to the exact likelihood. We show that the Fisher matrix becomes a poor approximation to the true likelihood in regions where two-dimensional slices of level surfaces of the DALI approximation to the likelihood differ from two-dimensional slices of level surfaces of the Fisher approximation to the likelihood. We demonstrate that our method accurately predicts situations in which the Fisher approximation deviates from the true likelihood for various cosmological models and several data combinations, with only a modest increase in computational cost compared to standard Fisher forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectra for gas-phase diagnostics

We present a hybrid frequency- and time-domain solution, applicable to the case of picosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS), for gas-phase diagnostics. A solution has been derived based on both physical arguments and four-wave mixing equations for picosecond CARS, with pulse durations that are comparable to the dephasing time scale for gas-phase Raman coherence—a regime where commonly employed solutions for impulsive (femtosecond) or cw (nanosecond) pump/Stokes forcing are not strictly valid. We present the ps-CARS spectrum in the form of incoherent sums of CARS intensity spectra, calculated from the fundamental solution for impulsive pump/Stokes Raman preparation. The solution was examined for temperatures from 1000–3000 K, for four plausible experimental configurations, with laser pulse durations of 50–150 ps, and probe pulse delays from −20 to 240 ps. Approximations based on cw and impulsive pump/Stokes preparation to fit picosecond CARS spectra at atmospheric pressure were examined and the relative thermometric accuracy and computational cost of these approximations were quantified for the case of a zero nonresonant CARS contribution, and a nonresonant susceptibility equal to 10% of the Raman-resonant value at the N 2 bandhead. The nanosecond CARS approximation can result in large fitting errors when the probe pulse time delay is less than the probe pulse duration. Errors as large as 10–20% are observed in the fit temperatures for a zero picosecond probe pulse delay, when the nonresonant background is neglected, largely due to an inability of the time-independent cw model to capture transient frequency spread dephasing effects at the Q -branch bandhead. The inclusion of a nonresonant background results in 40–60% thermometry errors with a nanosecond model at a zero-probe delay. Time-dependent impulsive calculations used for femtosecond CARS better approximate the structure of the N 2 bandhead, reducing temperature fitting errors to 5–10% at a short probe pulse delay. The impulsive approximation results in errors up to 10% at intermediate probe pulse delays, where the coherence of the pump and probe pulses leads to multiple terms in the picosecond CARS solution. Both approximations improve as the probe pulse delay exceeds the probe duration. The nanosecond approximation results in a 2–3% error, while the impulsive model results in differences of less than 1% in some cases. Fits to experimental data obtained using short, ∼60ps pulses at a zero probe time delay and longer 100 ps pulses at a substantial 200 ps delay are presented with accuracies of 1–3% in the fit temperature.

Kearney, Sean P.↗