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At least 631 records · Page 35

Precipitation Efficiency and Water Budget of Typhoon Fitow (2013): A Particle Trajectory Study

Here, the WRF Model is used to simulate the torrential rainfall of Typhoon Fitow (2013) over coastal areas of east China during its landfall. Data from the innermost model domain are used to trace trajectories of particles in three major 24-h accumulated rainfall centers using the Lagrangian flexible particle dispersion model (FLEXPART). Surface rainfall budgets and cloud microphysical budgets as well as precipitation efficiency are analyzed along the particles’ trajectories. The rainfall centers with high precipitation efficiency are associated with water vapor convergence, condensation, accretion of cloud water by raindrops, and raindrop loss/convergence. The raindrop loss/convergence over rainfall centers is supported by the raindrop gain/divergence over the areas adjacent to rainfall centers. Precipitation efficiency is mainly confirmed by hydrometeor loss/convergence. Hydrometeor loss/convergence corresponds to the hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be related to the increased vertical advection of hydrometeors in response to the upward motions and upward decrease of hydrometeors, whereas hydrometeor gain/divergence corresponds to the reduction in hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be associated with the decreased horizontal advection of hydrometeors in response to the zonal decrease in hydrometeors and easterly winds and the meridional increase in hydrometeors and southerly winds. The water vapor convergence and associated condensation do not show consistent relationships with orographic lifting all the time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Moisture Recycling through Pumping by Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract Moisture recycling, the contribution of local evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, has been studied using bulk models assuming a well-mixed atmosphere. The latter is inconsistent with a climatologically stratified atmosphere that slants across latitudes. Reconciling the two views requires an understanding of overturning associated with different weather systems. In this study, we aim to better understand moisture recycling associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using a convection-permitting WRF simulation equipped with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT), we tag moisture from terrestrial ET in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during May 2015, when more than 20 MCS events occurred and produced significant precipitation and flooding. Water budget analysis reveals that approximately 76% of terrestrial ET is advected away from the region while the remaining 24% of terrestrial ET is “pumped” upward within the region, accounting for 12% of precipitation. Moisture recycling peaks during early night hours (1800–2400 LT) due to the mixing of the daytime accumulated ET by active convection. By focusing on five “diurnally driven” MCSs with less large-scale circulation influence than other MCSs during the same period, we find an upright pumping of terrestrial ET at the MCS initiation and development stages, which diverges into two branches during the MCS mature and decaying stages. One branch in the upper level advects the ET-sourced moisture downstream, while the other branch in the mid-to-upper level contributes to the trailing precipitation upstream. Overall, our analysis depicts a pumping mechanism associated with MCSs that mixes local ET vertically, highlighting its specific contributions to enhancing convective precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Perturbative Solution for Nonlinear Stratified Upwelling over a Frictional Slope

Abstract A perturbative solution of simplified primitive equations for nonlinear weakly stratified upwelling over a frictional slope is found that resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservation in the stratified inviscid interior. The solution uses assumptions consistent with the model proposed by Lentz and Chapman, including a steady-state, constant cross-shore density gradient, no alongshore gradients, laterally inviscid, and consideration of cross-shore advection of alongshore momentum. The solution resolves the vertical structure of velocity fields (including subsurface maxima of compensational flow, not resolved by Lentz and Chapman) and can satisfy Ertel’s potential vorticity conservation in the stratified inviscid interior. The dynamics are similar to Lentz and Chapman; bottom stress balances alongshore wind stress in a homogeneous density ocean and is replaced by nonlinear cross-shore transport of alongshore momentum as the Burger number (S=αN/f, whereα,N, andfare the bottom slope, buoyancy frequency, Coriolis frequency, respectively) increases. When the solution uses the empirical relation between cross-shore and vertical density gradients proposed by Lentz and Chapman, vorticity conservation is not satisfied and the nonlinear momentum transport estimated by the solution linearly increases withS, asymptotically matching Lentz and Chapman forS< 1. When the solution conserves interior potential vorticity, the momentum transport is proportional toS 2 forS< 1 and is in better agreement with numerical simulations.

Oceanography↗

Multiscale Aspects of the Storm Producing the June 2013 Flooding in Uttarakhand, India

Conditions producing disastrous flooding in Uttarakhand, India, in June 2013 differed from conditions that produced other notorious floods in the Himalayan region in recent years. During the week preceding the Uttarakhand flood, deep convection moistened the mountainsides, making them vulnerable to flooding. However, the precipitation producing the flood was not associated with a deep convective event. Rather, an eastward-propagating upper-level trough in the westerlies extended abnormally far southward, with the jet reaching the Himalayas. The south end of the trough merged with a monsoon low moving westward across India. The merged system produced persistent moist low-level flow oriented normal to the Himalayas that advected large amounts of water vapor into the Uttarakhand region. The flow was moist neutral when it passed over the Himalayan barrier, and orographic lifting produced heavy continuous rain over the region for 2–3 days. The precipitation was largely stratiform in nature although embedded convection of moderate depth occurred along the foothills, where some mild instability was being released. The Uttarakhand flood had characteristics in common with major 2013 floods in the Rocky Mountains in Colorado and Alberta, Canada.

Houze, R. A.↗

Improving Solution Accuracy and Convergence for Stochastic Physics Parameterizations with Colored Noise

Stochastic parameterizations are used in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling to help capture the uncertainty in the simulations and improve their statistical properties. Convergence issues can arise when time integration methods originally developed for deterministic differential equations are applied naively to stochastic problems. In previous studies, it has been demonstrated that a correction term, known in stochastic analysis as the Itô correction, can help improve solution accuracy for various deterministic numerical schemes and ensure convergence to the physically relevant solution without substantial computational overhead. The usual formulation of the Itô correction is valid only when the stochasticity is represented by white noise. In this study, a generalized formulation of the Itô correction is derived for noises of any color. The formulation is applied to a test problem described by an advection–diffusion equation forced with a spectrum of fast processes. We present numerical results for cases with both constant and spatially varying advection velocities to show that, for the same time step sizes, the introduction of the generalized Itô correction helps to substantially reduce time integration error and significantly improve the convergence rate of the numerical solutions when the forcing term in the governing equation is rough (fast varying); alternatively, for the same target accuracy, the generalized Itô correction allows for the use of significantly longer time steps and, hence, helps to reduce the computational cost of the numerical simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence. Significance Statement The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Intensification of Hurricane Sally (2020) over the Mississippi River Plume

Abstract Tropical Cyclone (TC) Sally formed on 11 September 2020, traveled through the Gulf of Mexico (GMX), and intensified rapidly before making landfall on the Alabama coast as a devastating category-2 TC with extensive coastal and inland flooding. In this study, using a combination of observations and idealized numerical model experiments, we demonstrate that the Mississippi River plume played a key role in the intensification of Sally near the northern Gulf Coast. As the storm intensified and its translation slowed before landfall, sea surface cooling was reduced along its track, coincident with a pronounced increase in SSS. Further analysis reveals that TC Sally encountered a warm Loop Current eddy in the northern GMX close to the Mississippi River plume. Besides deepening the thermocline, the eddy advected low-salinity Mississippi River plume water into the storm’s path. This resulted in the development of strong upper-ocean salinity stratification, with a shallow layer of freshwater lying above a deep, warm “barrier layer.” Consequently, TC-induced mixing and the associated sea surface cooling were reduced, aiding Sally’s intensification. These results suggest that the Mississippi River plume and freshwater advection by the Loop Current eddies can play an important role in TC intensification near the U.S. Gulf Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution

Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

A separate phase drag model and a surrogate approximation for simulation of the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process

General ensemble phase averaged equations for multiphase flows have been specialized for the simulation of the steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) process. In the average momentum equation, fluid-solid and fluid-fluid viscous interactions are represented by separate force terms. This equation has a form similar to that of Darcy’s law for multiphase flow but augmented by the fluid-fluid viscous forces. Models for these fluid-fluid interactions are suggested and implemented into the numerical code CartaBlanca. Numerical results indicate that the model captures the main features of the multiphase flow in the SAGD process, but the detailed features, such as plumes are missed. We find that viscous coupling among the fluid phases is important. Advection time scales for the different fluids differ by several orders of magnitude because of vast viscosity differences. Numerically resolving all of these time scales is time consuming. To address this problem, we introduce a steam surrogate approximation to increase the steam advection time scale, while keeping the mass and energy fluxes well approximated. This approximation leads to about a 40-fold speed-up in execution speed of the numerical calculations at the cost of a few percent error in the relevant quantities.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Lattice Boltzmann-Based Approaches for Pore-Scale Reactive Transport

Here an important geoscience and environmental applications such as geologic carbon storage, environmental remediation, and unconventional oil and gas recovery are best understood in the context of reactive flow and multicomponent transport in the subsurface environment. The coupling of chemical and microbiological reactions with hydrological and mechanical processes can lead to complex behaviors across an enormous range of spatial and temporal scales. These coupled responses are also strongly influenced by the heterogeneity and anisotropy of the geologic formations. Reactive transport processes can change the pore morphology at the pore scale, thereby leading to nonlinear interactions with advective and diffusive transport, which can strongly influence larger-scale properties such as permeability and dispersion.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

North Pacific Mesoscale Coupled Air-Ocean Simulations Compared with Observations

Executive summary The main objective of the study was to investigate atmospheric and ocean interaction processes in the western Pacific and, in particular, effects of significant ocean heat loss in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions on the lower and upper atmosphere. It is yet to be determined how significant are these processes are on climate scales. The understanding of these processes led us also to development of the methodology of coupling the Weather and Research Forecasting model with the Parallel Ocean Program model for western Pacific regional weather and climate simulations. We tested NCAR-developed research software Coupler 7 for coupling of the WRF and POP models and assessed its usability for regional-scale applications. We completed test simulations using the Coupler 7 framework, but implemented a standard WRF model code with options for both one- and two-way mode coupling. This type of coupling will allow us to seamlessly incorporate new WRF updates and versions in the future. We also performed a long-term WRF simulation (15 years) covering the entire North Pacific as well as high-resolution simulations of a case study which included extreme ocean heat losses in the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions. Since the extreme ocean heat loss occurs during winter cold air outbreaks (CAO), we simulated and analyzed a case study of a severe CAO event in January 2000 in detail. We found that the ocean heat loss induced by CAOs is amplified by additional advection from mesocyclones forming on the southern part of the Japan Sea. Large scale synoptic patterns with anomalously strong anticyclone over Siberia and Mongolia, deep Aleutian Low, and the Pacific subtropical ridge are a crucial setup for the CAO. It was found that the onset of the CAO is related to the breaking of atmospheric Rossby waves and vertical transport of vorticity that facilitates meridional advection. The study also indicates that intrinsic parameterization of the surface fluxes within the WRF model needs more evaluation and analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Uranium Immobilization through Fe(II) bio-oxidation: A Column study

Current research on the bioremediation of heavy metals and radionuclides is focused on the ability of reducing organisms to use these metals as alternative electron acceptors in the absence of oxygen and thus precipitate them out of solution. However, many aspects of this proposed scheme need to be resolved, not the least of which is the time frame of the treatment process. Once treatment is complete and the electron donor addition is halted, the system will ultimately revert back to an oxic state and potentially result in the abiotic reoxidation and remobilization of the immobilized metals. In addition, the possibility exists that the presence of more electropositive electron acceptors such as nitrate or oxygen will also stimulate the biological oxidation and remobilization of these contaminants. The selective nitrate-dependent biooxidation of added Fe(II) may offer an effective means of “capping off” and completing the attenuation of these contaminants in a reducing environment making the contaminants less accessible to abiotic and biotic reactions and allowing the system to naturally revert to an oxic state. Our previous DOE-NABIR funded studies demonstrated that radionuclides such as uranium and cobalt are rapidly removed from solution during the biogenic formation of Fe(III)-oxides. In the case of uranium, X-ray spectroscopy analysis indicated that the uranium was in the hexavalent form (normally soluble) and was bound to the precipitated Fe(III)-oxides thus demonstrating the bioremediative potential of this process. We also demonstrated that nitrate-dependent Fe(II)-oxidizing bacteria are prevalent in the sediment and groundwater samples collected from sites 1 and 2 and the background site of the NABIR FRC in Oakridge, TN. However, all of these studies were performed in batch experiments in the laboratory with pure cultures and although a significant amount was learned about the microbiology of nitrate-dependent bio-oxidation of Fe(II), the effects of complex processes (such as advective flow) present in the natural environment are unknown. The objective of the current studies was to address some of these short-comings in an attempt to develop this bioremediative strategy into a robust, field applicable technology. This objective was approached by both pure culture studies investigating the mechanism of Fe(II) oxidation by nitrate reducing bacteria and examining the flow dynamics and microbial processes in advective flow columns amended with Fe(II) and nitrate over an extended period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to hours) variability through scattering and reflection of incoming solar radiation. Providing estimates of this short-term variability is important for determining and regulating the output from large solar arrays as they connect with the larger power infrastructure. In support of the installation of a 37-MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study of the impacts of clouds on the output of the solar array has been undertaken. The study emphasis is on predicting the change in surface solar radiation resulting from the observed/forecast cloud field on a 5-minute time scale. At these time scales, advection of cloud elements over the solar array is of particular importance. As part of the BNL Aerosol Life Cycle Intensive Operational Period (IOP), a 915-MHz Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) was deployed to determine the profile of low-level horizontal winds and the depth of the planetary boundary layer. The initial deployment mission of the 915-MHz RWP for cloud forecasting has been expanded the deployment to provide horizontal wind measurements for estimating and constraining cloud advection speeds. A secondary focus is on the observation of dynamics and microphysics of precipitation during cold season/winter storms on Long Island. In total, the profiler was deployed at BNL for 1 year from May 2011 through May 2012.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

915-Mhz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to hours) variability through scattering and reflection of incoming solar radiation. Providing estimates of this short-term variability is important for determining and regulating the output from large solar arrays as they connect with the larger power infrastructure. In support of the installation of a 37-MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study of the impacts of clouds on the output of the solar array has been undertaken. The study emphasis is on predicting the change in surface solar radiation resulting from the observed/forecast cloud field on a 5-minute time scale. At these time scales, advection of cloud elements over the solar array is of particular importance. As part of the BNL Aerosol Life Cycle Intensive Operational Period (IOP), a 915-MHz Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) was deployed to determine the profile of low-level horizontal winds and the depth of the planetary boundary layer. The initial deployment mission of the 915-MHz RWP for cloud forecasting has been expanded the deployment to provide horizontal wind measurements for estimating and constraining cloud advection speeds. A secondary focus is on the observation of dynamics and microphysics of precipitation during cold season/winter storms on Long Island. In total, the profiler was deployed at BNL for 1 year from May 2011 through May 2012.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sorption Modeling and Verification for Off-Gas Treatment

This project was successfully executed to provide valuable adsorption data and improve a comprehensive model developed in previous work by the authors. Data obtained were used in an integrated computer program to predict the behavior of adsorption columns. The model is supported by experimental data and has been shown to predict capture of off gas similar to that evolving during the reprocessing of nuclear waste. The computer program structure contains (a) equilibrium models of off-gases with the adsorbate; (b) mass-transfer models to describe off-gas mass transfer to a particle, diffusion through the pores of the particle, and adsorption on the active sites of the particle; and (c) incorporation of these models into fixed bed adsorption modeling, which includes advection through the bed. These models are being connected with the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) software developed at the Idaho National Laboratory through DGOSPREY (Discontinuous Galerkin Off-gas SeParation and REcoverY) computer codes developed in this project. Experiments for iodine and water adsorption have been conducted on reduced silver mordenite (Ag0Z) for single layered particles. Adsorption apparatuses have been constructed to execute these experiments over a useful range of conditions for temperatures ranging from ambient to 250°C and water dew points ranging from -69 to 19°C. Experimental results were analyzed to determine mass transfer and diffusion of these gases into the particles and to determine which models best describe the single and binary component mass transfer and diffusion processes. The experimental results were also used to demonstrate the capabilities of the comprehensive models developed to predict single-particle adsorption and transients of the adsorption-desorption processes in fixed beds. Models for adsorption and mass transfer have been developed to mathematically describe adsorption kinetics and transport via diffusion and advection processes. These models were built on a numerical framework for solving conservation law problems in one-dimensional geometries such as spheres, cylinders, and lines. Coupled with the framework are specific models for adsorption in commercial adsorbents, such as zeolites and mordenites. Utilizing this modeling approach, the authors were able to accurately describe and predict adsorption kinetic data obtained from experiments at a variety of different temperatures and gas phase concentrations. A demonstration of how these models, and framework, can be used to simulate adsorption in fixed- bed columns is provided. The CO 2 absorption work involved modeling with supportive experimental information. A dynamic model was developed to simulate CO 2 absorption using high alkaline content water solutions. The model is based upon transient mass and energy balances for chemical species commonly present in CO 2 absorption. A computer code was developed to implement CO 2 absorption with a chemical reaction model. Experiments were conducted in a laboratory scale column to determine the model parameters. The influence of geometric parameters and operating variables on CO 2 absorption was studied over a wide range of conditions. Continuing work could employ the model to control column operation and predict the absorption behavior under various input conditions and other prescribed experimental perturbations. The value of the validated models and numerical frameworks developed in this project is that they can be used to predict the sorption behavior of off-gas evolved during the reprocessing of nuclear waste and thus reduce the cost of the experiments. They can also be used to design sorption processes based on concentration limits and flow-rates determined at the plant level.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Numerical Tool for the Design of Enhanced Geothermal Reservoirs based on Modeling of Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Processes and Explicit Representation of 3D Discrete Fracture Networks

This project has developed a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical numerical modeling tool for prediction of energy production from Enhanced Geothermal Reservoirs (EGS). The tool is unique because it can explicitly represent thousands of pre-existing natural fractures. The capabilities developed in this project were built on the already existing expertise of Itasca arising from thirty years of research and development in discrete element modeling of fractured rocks. A thermal module suitable for analysis of different heat transfer mechanisms in fractured rocks percolated by fluids was developed and coupled with the already existing hydro-mechanical calculation in 3DEC, a commercial software for analysis of jointed rock based on the discrete element method (DEM). The heat transfer module simulates heat conduction, heat advection by moving fluid in rock fractures, and convective heat exchange at the fracture walls between the rock and the moving fluid. Techniques for spatial discretization of heat transfer in EGS-type problems were evaluated, and a boundary layer meshing approach was developed. Also, given the significant differences in time scale of physical processes involved, temporal integration schemes for coupled advection-diffusion processes and coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical processes were developed by taking advantage of both implicit and explicit time integration and also optimizing the coupling intervals. These improvements were necessary for modeling EGS reservoirs. Also, the DFN capacities in 3DEC were extended to include a larger number of fractures. Research was carried out on approaches to simplify the DFN so that the model can meet computational demands, while preserving thermo-hydro-mechanical characteristics of the DFN. The developed modules were coupled with the already existing capabilities of 3DEC. The results were presented as a submitted conference paper (Riahi et al., 2018a). A series of benchmark and test examples showed the developed capabilities. Finally, the developed tool was tested for a large-scale reservoir model for longer periods of injection and production. The thermal draw-down curves were generated and presented. The project successfully met all the milestones laid out in the proposal. Results demonstrated the feasibility of developing a fast and reliable software for the EGS community to use for assessment and prediction of reservoir performance. Some of its applications include assessment of stimulated volume and produced temperature and power. It can also be used for improved engineering, design and optimization of EGS reservoirs as well as other unconventional resources such as shale gas. Finally, the 3D analysis presented in this study showed that simulating EGS reservoirs with tens of thousands of fractures is feasible, and confirmed that the developed tool can serve toward meeting the goals and objectives of Geothermal Technologies Office in overcoming technical barriers associated with commercial EGS development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Mechanisms for Methane Transport and Hydrate Accumulation in Coarse-Grained Reservoirs

The distribution of natural methane hydrate within high saturation reservoirs and mechanisms that control the migration of methane are an active area of research. In this project, we studied methane migration mechanisms and associated hydrate accumulation rates in coarse-grained sands of the Terrebonne Basin, located in Walker Ridge Block 313 (WR313), northern Gulf of Mexico. Hydrate in this area is distributed heterogeneously within ~900 m of methane hydrate stability zone, in both thick (10-25 m) and thin (< 3 m) sand layers, and in units of subvertical hydrate-filled fractures. We investigated hydrate formation from diffusively and advectively supplied methane using one-, two-, and three-dimensional basin modeling with inputs from well log and seismic data. The hydrate accumulations at WR313 can mostly be explained by short, diffusive migration of methane as well as short-range advective transport of methane from clays into neighboring coarser-grained layers. This is likely enhanced by small-scale lithologic variations, including local microbial methanogenesis in interbedded clays. Furthermore, our work shows overpressure in clay sediments surrounding sand reservoirs may enhance short-range diffusive migration. Long-range migration of dissolved methane and gas mainly influence hydrate saturation right at the base of the hydrate stability zone, although the dissolved phase can be channeled upwards along sands by compaction-driven flow. Capillary effects can allow gas bubbles to migrate appreciable distances above the predicted base of gas hydrate stability, possibly reaching a few tens of meters into the hydrate stability zone. Recycling methane from hydrate buried beneath the base of the hydrate stability zone can concentrate hydrate at large saturations within a few tens of meters of the base of hydrate stability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Lagrangian Material Tracers (LMT) for Simulating Material Damage in ALEGRA

A method for providing non-diffuse transport of material quantities in arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) dynamic solid mechanics computations is presented. ALE computations are highly desirable for simulating dynamic problems that incorporate multiple materials and large deformations. Despite the advantages of using ALE for such problems, the method is associated with diffusion of material quantities due to the advection transport step of the computational cycle. This drawback poses great difficulty for applications of material failure for which discrete features are important, but are smeared out as a result of the diffusive advection operation. The focus of this work is an ALE method that incorporates transport of variables on discrete, massless points that move with the velocity field, referred to as Lagrangian material tracers (LMT), and consequently prevents diffusion of certain material quantities of interest. A detailed description of the algorithm is provided along with discussion of its computational aspects. Simulation results include a simple proof of concept, verification using a manufactured solution, and fragmentation of a uniformly loaded thin ring that clearly demonstrates the improvement offered by the ALE LMT method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗