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626 records · Page 35
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Added value of site load measurements in probabilistic lifetime extension: a Lillgrund case study

Site-specific fatigue estimation is an essential part of wind turbine lifetime extension, with various methods depending on data availability. The present study compares probabilistic lifetime extension assessment results for rotor blades with and without load measurements. It also addresses two key questions in such assessments: the applicability of the Frandsen model for estimating waked turbulence under complex and mixed wake conditions and the extrapolation of mid-term data over longer time periods. The case study wind turbine is SWT-2.3-93, located at the edge of the Lillgrund wind farm, situated in the Øresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. The turbine is extensively instrumented, with 5 years of data available from its supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Although the Frandsen turbulence estimates deviate in a different manner from measurements at below- and above-rated mean wind speeds, the model remains a conservative approach for fatigue load prediction and reliability. In the current case study, the site-specific assessment using strain gauge measurements yields a 33 % higher annual fatigue reliability index after 35 years compared to a scenario based on the Frandsen estimation combined with ambient environmental data and a generic aeroelastic model. The results also demonstrate that the sensitivity of fatigue reliability to load uncertainty is negligible when load measurements are used directly but relatively high when relying on the Frandsen model in combination with a generic aeroelastic model. Overall, the high variability of the lifetime extension in different scenarios of data availability and accuracy shows the importance and added value of high-quality measurements combined with wind-farm-level SCADA and a model updated in real time (digital twins).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Correlation of Heliostat Pointing Deviation With Wind

This work was carried out as part of the Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) Field Deployment subtask with the aim to develop a reduced order model framework for correlating wind speed and pointing deviation of a heliostat facet. There are only sparse field measurements of heliostat pointing deviations and accompanying wind conditions published in the literature. Heliostat test standards, such as IEC 62862-4-3, propose a suite of tests including laser pointing repeatability at wind speeds below 4 m/s, and provide technical requirements for heliostat slope and tracking deviations in coarse average wind speed bins of 4 m/s, 6 m/s, and 8 m/s. In addressing the gap of the variation of heliostat pointing deviation with wind speed, field measurements of laser pointing on a grid target and wind conditions were analyzed in this study at the Third-Party Metrology Platform at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) Flatirons Campus. Horizontal pointing deviations were found to follow a logarithmic relationship with peak wind speed, whereas vertical pointing deviations follow an exponential relationship with peak wind speed. Both horizontal and vertical pointing deviations also follow a second order polynomial relationship, as expected from the proportionality of elastic loads and deformations with the square of wind speed. The results indicate that heliostat facet pointing deviations in the vertical direction increase at a faster rate than in the horizontal direction with increasing wind speed over the tested range, however these are dependent on the heliostat structural design. Next steps are recommended for additional field measurements to confirm a linear relationship of pointing deviation with applied moment on a heliostat facet, and to distinguish between gravity-induced and wind-induced pointing deviations at different elevation angles. The derived correlations in the preliminary analysis in this report serve as a case study for heliostat developers and plant operators to estimate the wind-induced pointing deviations and their variation with peak gust wind speed. Next steps in future work would recommend higher resolution and longer duration datasets for different elevation angles and wind directions to reduce uncertainties and variance of collected laser beam spot data and their correlations with bin-averaged wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wind Turbine Materials Recycling Prize Phase 2 (Commercialization of Wind Turbine Blade Waste (WTBW)-Based, Lightweight, Cementitious Composite Materials): Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-24-31305

The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) and AltiSora, LLC., will develop new lightweight cementitious composite material technologies that will utilize wind turbine blade waste as a raw material to; (1) allow a high value addition (2) at low cost, enabling (3) a significant waste consumption volume; while (4) consuming the entire wind turbine blade, without (5) creating any waste or emissions and to also (6) offer specific benefits to communities involved.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Fidelity Simulation Aerodynamics Dataset of NACA 0012 and 0021 Airfoils

The repository contains time series data of pressure, viscous and moment forces for the NACA 0012 and 0021 airfoils at angles of attack (AOA), 5, 17, 30, 45, 60 and 90 degrees. The data was generated during the high-fidelity simulations of the airfoils using the open-source CFD code, Nalu-Wind (https://github.com/Exawind/nalu-wind). The research objective was to study the effects of mesh resolution and turbulence model on the three-dimensional deep stall aerodynamics of the airfoils, which has been published in the Journal of Turbulence (https://doi.org/10.1080/14685248.2023.2225141). Several meshes of the O-grid type were generated using the modified Pointwise Glyph script of Carrigan (https://github.com/pointwise/AirfoilMesh) by varying the wall normal and spanwise resolutions. Note that, the geometry was extruded by four chord lengths in the spanwise direction. In the paper, we showed that Improved Delayed Detached Eddy Simulation (IDDES) hybrid RANS/LES turbulence model with a minimum of 24 cells per chord length in the spanwise direction is necessary to correctly predict the loads in the deep stall regime. Under the NACA 0012 airfoil directory, the data for several combinations of wall-normal and spanwise resolutions are presented in each of the AOA subdirectories. The corresponding experimental data for the lift and drag polars can be found in the "exp_data" subdirectory. The directory for the NACA 0021 airfoil consists of CFD force data and airfoil polars for Reynolds numbers 2.7e5 and 2.0e6.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Physics-Based Digital Twin for Wave Elevation and Seabed Moment Estimation of Offshore Monopiles: Preprint

In this work, we present a proof of concept of a physics-based digital twin for a monopile structure (with overhead inertia) subjected to wave loading. The digital twin is formulated using reduced-order models derived from first principles and combined with a Kalman filter for state estimation. The proposed framework estimates the monopile top motion, the wave elevation, and the section forces and moments along the pile using primarily acceleration measurements at the monopile top. Key innovations include the use of a hydrodynamic shape function to represent distributed wave loading in a compact and computationally efficient manner, and the introduction of a shaping filter to augment the state-space with wave kinematics. Synthetic measurement data are generated using OpenFAST and used as a reference to assess the performance of the digital twin. Results demonstrate that the wave elevation can be accurately reconstructed without direct sea-state measurements as long as the wave regime is inertia-dominated. Under the ideal tested conditions, the total hydrodynamic force and sea-bed bending moment are estimated with relative errors on the order of 1% and correlation coefficients exceeding 96%. Future work will evaluate the estimator's performance under operational uncertainties and more complex loading conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Clean Energy Deployment Baseline for the Energy Community and Low-Income Tax Credit Bonuses [Slides]

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduced, for the first time, place-based federal tax incentives for projects sited in “Energy Communities,” potentially changing the economic calculus of where projects are best sited. Storage projects can qualify for a 10-percentage-point bonus to the Investment Tax Credit (e.g., from 30% to 40%), while wind and solar projects may qualify for either the ITC bonus or a 10% bonus to the Production Tax Credit (e.g., from $\$27.5$ to $\$30.25$/MWh). Energy Communities are areas with historical ties to fossil fuel industries and above average unemployment levels (FFEU), with closed coal mines or power plants, or contaminated properties. They seek to identify locations across the US that could especially benefit from economic revitalization. This report explores how the new federal tax credit incentives are impacting clean energy deployment patterns and establishes historical baselines against which future changes can be compared. We include a few case studies of clean energy projects going specifically to areas that were recently impacted by coal power plant closures to provide concrete examples of investments in Energy Communities. However, this publication does not assess how much of the incentive benefits pass from clean energy developers to hosting communities, nor does it offer a comprehensive view of the economic effects of clean energy deployment on Energy Communities. Key highlights include: - As clean energy projects take multiple years to conceptualize and develop, it is likely too early to see shifts towards Energy Community locations either among newly built projects or those that entered interconnection queues in 2023. - Approximately 35% of onshore wind, 50% of solar, and 60% of storage capacity built in 2023 and the first half of 2024 are located in Energy Communities, making them likely eligible for bonus incentives. While these bonus incentives were not available to projects coming online before 2023, we used 2023 Energy Community definitions to classify whether past projects were built in what is now considered an Energy Community. The deployment levels for 2023-2024 are similar to recent years (2020-2022) for solar and storage but slightly lower for wind. - Clean energy capacity has surged in the interconnection queues over the last few years, with about 45-50% of both recently proposed and total queued capacity being located in Energy Communities. While the amount of capacity in Energy Communities has also grown, its relative share is either stable (solar and storage) or slightly lower (wind) among projects that entered the queue in 2023. - Clean energy projects can be built at lower costs in Energy Communities. The levelized cost of energy after incentives was on average $\$9$/MWh (24%) lower for solar projects and $\$2$/MWh (6%) lower for wind projects built in 2023, relative to projects not located in Energy Communities. Wholesale electricity values at Energy Community locations relative to the rest of the market vary by region. The average value was often higher for wind projects (-$\$3$ to $\$11$/MWh) but lower for solar projects (-$\$6$ to 0/MWh). - Distributed solar that is owned by commercial entities is eligible for the Energy Community bonus and also, potentially, a Low-Income Community bonus. Residential solar installations in qualifying Energy Communities that are third-party owned represent about 10% of the total residential market. Larger commercial and industrial solar installations in Energy Communities make up 17% of the total market in 2023. Nearly 2 GW of distributed solar was built in areas qualifying as Low-Income Communities in 2023, exceeding the available annual program cap of 700 MW. Continued tracking of these trends will be important for system planners, investors, and local communities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Employing Machine Learning for New Particle Formation Identification and Mechanistic Analysis: Insights From a Six‐Year Observational Study in the Southern Great Plains

We present a supervised machine learning (ML) framework to automatically identify new particle formation (NPF) events and analyze key atmospheric factors associated with their occurrence and growth. We applied ML to detect NPF events using start time and particle concentrations across size ranges, while identifying atmospheric variables including ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation intensity (SRI), wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer height, total organics, sulfate, nitrate, total surface area concentration, sulfur dioxide, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). We analyzed a 6-year data set from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. Using long-term ground-based measurements, we identified NPF events and applied Random Forest Classifiers, which achieved 90%–95% prediction accuracy. Feature importance analysis highlighted SRI, relative humidity, and ambient temperature as the most influential variables, contributing normalized importances of 28%, 17%, and 10%. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) indicated that higher SRI and lower relative humidity were critical in promoting NPF formation at SGP. Seasonally, NPF events were more frequent in winter (42.1%) and spring (35.5%), and least in summer (4.0%). Particle growth rates also exhibited a seasonal variation, with the lowest in winter (below 2 nm hr −1 ) and highest in late spring and early summer (exceeding 5 nm hr −1 ). Temperature, turbulent kinetic energy, and aerosol properties were the primary factors of growth rate variability. This study advances predictive modeling of NPF, offers insights for future campaign deployments, and demonstrates the effectiveness of ML in understanding the formation and growth of atmospheric aerosols.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Photovoltaic Installations Using Remote Sensing Imagery

In this study, we analyze poststorm satellite imagery to assess solar photovoltaic (PV) damage for over 11,300 systems following a catastrophic hailstorm in Austin, TX, in September 2023, which produced softball‐sized hail and for over 1500 systems across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017. Findings show that approximately 5.5% of identified PV sites were damaged in the hailstorm and approximately 17% of PV installations were damaged after the hurricanes. A weak correlation between hurricane wind gust speed and percent site damage was determined, with installation practices playing a heavy role in site resilience. Additionally, we show that newer module vintages are more susceptible to hail damage than older modules, possibly due to a convergence of larger size modules, decreased frame dimensions, and decreased front glass thickness but more research is needed. For hail sizes of 60 mm or greater, consistent hail damage is sustained by PV installations, regardless of system configuration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining the Aerosol Effects on Deep Convective Clouds by Considering the Coupling Between Clouds and the Planetary Boundary Layer

Several mechanisms have been proposed for the aerosol invigoration effect. Although their principles are well established, their actual magnitudes and roles in cloud development remain uncertain and debatable. This uncertainty partly stems from observational-based studies, in which it has been challenging to separate the co-variability between aerosols and meteorology. Addressing this problem requires large data samples. To this end, this study employs the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data set expanding to 16 years (some up to 17 years, compared to 10 years in previous work) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. It also conducts a more careful and rigorous analysis to isolate the influences of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and synoptic patterns to address a previously raised concern. We incorporated a new key process affecting aerosol-cloud interaction: cloud-surface coupling. The state/degree of the coupling relationship turns out to play an important role in the invigoration effect. Our analysis reinforces earlier findings of a robust positive relationship between cloud thickness and aerosol loading across CAPE percentiles—but only under cloud-surface coupled conditions. The increase in cloud thickness with aerosol loading is most pronounced in coupled clouds with high CAPE and bases below 1 km. Coupled clouds with bases below 1 km thicken between 1 and 4 km, depending on the CAPE percentile. Decoupled clouds show no such systematic changes. Synoptic patterns also lead to different strengths of the invigoration effect. Clean and polluted air masses are predominantly associated with northerly and southerly winds, respectively, with a stronger invigoration effect in cleaner air masses.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fermi-LAT View on Three Ultra-high-energy 1LHAASO Sources in the 52° < l < 55° Region

Using more than 17 yr of Fermi-LAT data, we performed a detailed investigation of the complex 52° < l < 55° region, which encompasses the three ultra-high-energy sources 1LHAASO J1928+1746u, 1LHAASO J1928+1813u, and 1LHAASO J1929+1846u. This region hosts multiple supernova remnants (SNRs), pulsars, GeV and TeV sources. Our analysis resolves the GeV emission into three pointlike sources (J1925+1729P, J1930+1851P, and J1932+1916P) and two extended sources (J1929+1732E and J1930+1826E), and improves significantly on the description based on the 4FGL-DR4 catalog. Source J1932+1916P is identified as the known gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1932+1916, while J1925+1729P may be a new gamma-ray pulsar candidate distinct from the known gamma-ray pulsar PSR J1925+1720. This warrants future investigation and a search for pulsations. Source J1930+1851P coincides with the TeV source PWN/SNR G54.1+0.3, and its GeV−TeV spectrum is consistent with both leptonic and hadronic interpretations, although a leptonic origin in relation to the known pulsar wind nebula (PWN) is more likely. The GeV−TeV spectrum of J1929+1732E is consistent with a hybrid lepto-hadronic scenario in which the TeV emission traces the PWN powered by the pulsar PSR J1928+1746, while the GeV emission may result from interactions between particles escaped from the parent SNR and illuminating the gas environment. Similarly, J1930+1826E is likely connected to PWN/SNR G54.1+0.3 under a hadronic scenario involving escaped particles in their early propagation stage. Owing to spectral and/or morphological mismatches, the connection of these five GeV sources to the three LHAASO sources is not clear. This warrants deeper observations with HAWC and LHAASO, and a dedicated study of the modeling of the Galactic diffuse emission. Future CTAO observations with higher angular resolution are expected to deliver crucial information for the study of this region.

Liu, Linjie [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Ku↗