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At least 613 records · Page 34

DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2023 Project Peer Review: WBS 2.4.1.100 Bench Scale Research & Development

Bench Scale Integration develops and optimizes fermentation processes to produce bio-based fuels and chemicals for commercial scale-up. The project uses fermentation science to achieve high titers and production rates by, for example, manipulating how the microorganisms are fed biomass sugars and nutrients, modifying fermentation conditions (pH, temperature, aeration) or developing online control strategies for better fermentation operations and high titer, rates, and yield (TRY). For this period of performance, we continued our development of a commercial-ready 2,3-butanediol (BDO) fermentation from biomass sugars utilizing NREL's proprietary Zymomonas mobilis microorganism. The engineered Z. mobilis can use all the main sugars in corn stover biomass, which are glucose, xylose, and arabinose. BDO is a versatile, low-carbon chemical which can be catalytically upgraded to a variety of hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals. The project had three goals during this review period; evaluate the technical feasibility of using whole slurry pretreated corn stover to achieve the techno-economic analysis (TEA) performance goals, continue optimizing a liquor-based fed-batch fermentation process for high titer, and develop strategies to enable scale-up. After evaluating different iterations of a whole slurry fermentation that did not meet the TEA goals, a Go/No-Go decision was made to pivot to liquor-only with new TEA performance targets, the main one being 140 g/L titer. We successfully met this goal, producing 141 g/L BDO at 1 g/L-hr productivity and 84% process yield. This titer and productivity attracted industrial interest to scale the fermentation resulting in a Technology Commercialization Fund project award in 2022. We used an NREL developed near-infra red (NIR) spectroscopy method for rapid analysis which allowed for changes to aeration levels and sugar feeding during the fermentation to maximize BDO production. The NIR analysis can be done using a hand-held spectrometer, essentially taking the analysis on to the plant floor during scale-up and preliminary work shows the feasibility of using an online probe for continuous monitoring and control. The other scale-up tool is mapping oxygen transfer coefficient (kLa) and oxygen transfer rate (OTR) in various vessels to find conditions that match the optimized 500 mL vessels. Showing a correlation to the mapping work, which is done with water and a dissolved oxygen probe, can reduce the risk of failed fermentations during scale-up. Our end-of-project goal is to meet the design target BDO titer (140-150 g/L) from DMR corn stover liquor at 1000L or larger scale to demonstrate BDO process design case and transfer the technology to industrial fermentation stakeholders for commercialization.

2 3-butanediol↗

Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in the United States: Operations, revenue, and the impact of scale

An analysis was conducted using nationwide survey data to evaluate how material recovery facilities (MRFs) operations vary regionally and with scale. The survey characterized materials, processes, and energy use involved with operations, and revenue for recyclables. This is the first nationwide analysis of MRFs in the US that accounts for mass processed, energy consumed, and revenue. Of a population of 521 MRFs, 48 responses representing MRFs from five US regions were received and analyzed (9.2 % response rate). Responses were analyzed by size according to yearly mass of inbound materials (small: <1,000 Mg/year, medium: 1,000–10,000 Mg/year, and large: >10,000 Mg/year). Most MRFs identify as single-stream; source from residences; utilize tipping floors, picking lines, baling and warehousing; and are powered by electricity. Most revenue and inbound mass (>50%) came from fiber (cardboard and paper). Glass had little revenue, and plastics were difficult to transition to market. Percent residue ranged from 1-39%, averaged <20%, and increased as the mass of inbound material increased. Large MRFs reported more sources of material, employed advanced sorting technology, had greater plastics revenue (33% versus 5% for small MRFs), and had more market access for plastics compared to small MRFs. Large MRFs had two orders of magnitude less annual electricity consumption per Mg recyclables than small MRFs (5–90 kWh/Mg versus ∼300–550 kWh/Mg). Results demonstrate environmental and economic benefits of larger-scale MRFs, which could be implemented more broadly in the US through regional hub-and-spoke arrangements for collecting and processing recyclables, lowering energy consumption and increasing revenue for recyclables.

Hub-and-Spoke↗

A Generalizable Evaluated Approach, Applying Advanced Geospatial Statistical Methods, to Identify High Lead Exposure Locations at Census Tract Scale: Michigan Case Study

BACKGROUND: Despite great progress in reducing environmental lead (Pb) levels, many children in the United States are still being exposed. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to develop a generalizable approach for systematically identifying, verifying, and analyzing locations with high prevalence of children’s elevated blood Pb levels (EBLLs) and to assess available Pb models/indices as surrogates, using a Michigan case study. METHODS: We obtained ~1:9 million BLL test results of children <6 years of age in Michigan from 2006–2016; we then evaluated them for data representativeness by comparing two percentage EBLL (%EBLL) rates (number of children tested with EBLL divided by both number of children tested and total population). We analyzed %EBLLs across census tracts over three time periods and between two EBLL reference values (≥5 vs. ≥10 μg/dL) to evaluate consistency. Locations with high %EBLLs were identified by a top 20 percentile method and a Getis-Ord Gi* geospatial cluster “hotspot” analysis. For the locations identified, we analyzed convergences with three available Pb exposure models/indices based on old housing and sociodemographics. RESULTS: Analyses of 2014–2016 %EBLL data identified 11 Michigan locations via cluster analysis and 80 additional locations via the top 20 percentile method and their associated census tracts. Data representativeness and consistency were supported by a 0.93 correlation coefficient between the two EBLL rates over 11 y, and a Kappa score of ~0:8 of %EBLL hotspots across the time periods (2014–2016) and reference values. Many EBLL hotspot locations converge with current Pb exposure models/indices; others diverge, suggesting additional Pb sources for targeted interventions. DISCUSSION: This analysis confirmed known Pb hotspot locations and revealed new ones at a finer geographic resolution than previously available, using advanced geospatial statistical methods and mapping/visualization. It also assessed the utility of surrogates in the absence of blood Pb data. This approach could be applied to other states to inform Pb mitigation and prevention efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9705

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of Large-Scale Hydrogen Production from Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell Systems

The objective of this study is to establish a detailed techno-economic analysis to assess the effectiveness of incremental technology improvements needed for solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology to achieve the U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Shot goal of hydrogen production at less than $1 per kilogram. The pathway considers incremental technology improvements to key system parameters, with system performance and cost assessed for each pathway step. Briefly, the steps include cell voltage degradation rate improvements, operational current density increases, operating temperature reduction, improved steam utilization, increased system capacity factor, and reduced cell/stack capital costs. Each step is assessed at both atmospheric and pressurized (8 bar) operating conditions. To supplement assessment at each of these discrete stepwise improvements, sensitivity studies are conducted to understand the relative impact of each parameter and identify avenues for additional cost reductions. System efficiency and levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) for each case are presented. For the end-of-pathway case, which includes all the incremental research and development improvements, the cost of hydrogen produced is reduced by 50 percent from the state-of-the-art case.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Teleoperator control for passivation of satellites possessing angular momentum

Certain space shuttle missions may require the retrieval of passive spinning and processing satellites. One proposed means of retrieval utilizes a free-flying teleoperator launched from the shuttle. The feasibility of nulling the combined spin and precession (passivation) of a typical rigid satellite is first established using a Lagrangian formulation. It is shown that a proposed asymmetric teleoperator cannot be used for passivation in its present form because it would quickly tumble over after being spun-up to synchronize with the angular rates of the satellite. In addition, a dynamic analysis is made of the combined teleoperator-satellite system where an initial misalignment of their respective angular momentum vectors is assumed.

Nadkarni, A. A.↗

The molten carbonate carbon dioxide concentrator - Cathode performance at high CO2 utilization

An experimental study of the cathode performance of the molten carbonate carbon dioxide concentrator (MCCDC) at typical gas concentrations is reported, and the behavior is described in terms of standard electrochemical kinetic analysis. Theoretical aspects of the MCCDC are discussed, including the current-generating processes, the overpotential, and the reaction kinetics. A final working equation is derived, and the electrochemical cell is described. The parameters determined by the experiments include cathode overpotentials and removal and current efficiency as a function of current density, as well as carbon dioxide removal rate as a function of flow rate. The results are compared with data for other cells; the agreement with data for the molten carbonate fuel cell suggests that the major difference between the two cells is in the wetting characteristics. The MCCDC achieves high removal efficiencies at high current efficiencies. The lowest current efficiency recorded was 80 percent, and at most current densities, current efficiencies were above 100 percent.

Weaver, J. L.↗

Criticality Experiments to Reduce Compensating Errors in Plutonium Nuclear Data

Compensating errors between nuclear data observables in a library can adversely impact application simulations. The primary goal of the EUCLID project (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) is to reduce compensating errors in nuclear data. A new criticality experiment, described in this work, was designed with the specific target nuclear data of 239 Pu fission, inelastic scattering, elastic scattering, capture, nu-bar, and prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS). This work will focus on the design and execution of the EUCLID experiment, performed on the Planet vertical lift critical assembly machine at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The criticality experiment includes two different configurations with very different geometries: one is cube-like to minimize neutron leakage while the other is slab-like to maximize leakage. Having these two widely varying configurations allows the scattering sensitivities of 239 Pu to the neutron multiplication factor to be greatly changed while minimally impacting the other cross section sensitivities. Both configurations utilize the Pu ZPPR (Zero Power Physics Reactor) plates as fuel. The experiments were designed using a D-Optimality criteria, which is an optimization method minimizing the log-determinant of the adjusted nuclear data covariance for the target reactions. These experiments include not only inference of k eff , as done in all critical benchmark experiments, but several other responses as well, such as neutron multiplication measurements and reaction rate ratios. After analysis of the measured data is complete, adjustment of nuclear data will be performed to assess whether the new experimental data successfully reduced compensating errors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Advanced biorefinery feedstock from non-recyclable municipal solid waste by mechanical preprocessing

Because of accelerated urbanization and the development of a global economy, a large quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) has been collected and disposed of by the municipalities. Due to this drastic increase in the disposal of MSW, the need for its management is a must to preserve the environment. Currently, approximately 50% of the total MSW generated in the United States has been utilized through various recycling, combustion, and composting technologies, which means the remaining 50% is sent to landfill; this is often known as non-recyclable MSW (nMSW). As this nMSW is physically and chemically heterogenous and contains very high amounts of inorganic material, processing is required prior to using it as a biorefinery feedstock. Thus, this study focused on how mechanical preprocessing advanced the physical and chemical properties of nMSW. The physical and chemical properties were investigated in terms of particle size distribution, bulk density, ultimate and proximate analysis, and the higher heating value (HHV). The combustion properties were examined in terms of ignition temperature, peak heat release rate, and combustion efficiency. Results showed that the variability of physical and chemical properties of nMSW can be reduced by mechanical preprocessing. For example, the variability of the bulk density of the as-received nMSW was approximately 17.3% while it reduced to 5.8% when the sample size was reduced to 2 mm. Similarly, the variability of ash and HHV reduced from 49.2% to 11.0% and 13.4%–4.2%, respectively. Combustion thermograms showed that the size reduction positively improved the combustion properties. For example, 2 mm of spec sample started to ignite approximately 4 times earlier and took 6.5 folds less time to reach the peak heating rate compared to as-received nMSW. Overall, the mechanical preprocessing reduced the variability of physical and chemical properties in addition to the improvement of combustion behavior of the nMSW which is one step forward toward the biorefinery feedstock.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Utilization of an Advanced Sensor network to determine fuel heating value and Real-Time net unit heat rate during transient operation

Coal-fired utility boilers are being increasingly used as variable electricity generation to resolve the imbalance in the energy market from the expansion of intermittent renewable energy. The frequent transient operation required to meet residual energy demand has created a challenge for coal-fired units to operate efficiently. This work utilizes an advanced sensor network (ASN) to calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) of a coal-fired boiler in real time through combustion calculations and statistical correlations to provide the tools for optimizing dynamic operation. Real-time heating values that were necessary to determine fuel input energy to calculate accurate NUHR were found using both fundamental and data-driven methods. Real-time NUHR shows distinct shifts that reflect changes in process conditions that will improve the ability to optimize transient operation. Data-driven heating value correlations had 24% lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the fundamental combustion calculation approach when compared to daily retrospective proximate analysis. Furthermore, the data-driven method RMSE improved by 7% with the inclusion of ASN data. Future work is to validate by comparing unit performance with and without the inclusion of NUHR as a control parameter for the dynamic neural network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis of predicted mean vote-based model predictive control for residential HVAC systems

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is an advanced process control method that has attracted much attention in building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Here, this paper analyzes the optimal precooling performance in residential buildings using MPC with two different comfort indices, namely, temperature and predicted mean vote (PMV). It first formulates, for each comfort index, an optimization problem that accounts for different factors, such as weather, home thermal condition, prediction horizon, time-of use (TOU) utility rate, and rated cooling capacity. The problem is then solved, resulting in an MPC strategy that determines the HVAC on/off control signal and minimizes energy cost over a receding time horizon while maintaining thermal comfort. The energy performance difference between temperature-based and PMV-based MPC strategies is subsequently investigated, especially in light of the interior wall surface temperature and under different combinations of the factors. Extensive simulation results demonstrated that the proposed MPC strategies are adaptive and their performances depend primarily on weather, home thermal condition, and prediction horizon, while the impact of TOU utility rate and rated cooling capacity is relatively small. Because the PMV-based MPC strategy can take advantage of the lower interior wall surface temperature due to precooling, it resulted in 8–45% cost savings for the scenarios investigated and an average increase of 0.042–0.113 in the absolute value of the PMV index compared to the temperature-based MPC strategy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Comparative thermal analysis of alternate Cryogenic Fluid Management Experiment (CFME) configurations

The Cryogenic Fluid Management Experiment (CFME) was analyzed to assess the feasibility and advisability of deleting the vapor cooled shield (VCS) from the baseline CFME insulation and pressure control system. Two alternate concepts of CFME insulation and pressure control, neither of which incorporated the VCS, were investigated. The first concept employed a thermodynamic vent system (TVS) to throttle the flow through an internal wall mounted heat exchanger (HX) within the pressure vessel to decrease boiloff and pressure rise rate, while the second concept utilized a TVS without an internal heat exchanger. Only the first concept was viable. Its performance was assessed for a seven day mission and found to be satisfactory. It was also concluded that VCS development costs would be greater than for an internal HX installation. Based upon the above comparisons, the HX was recommended as a replacement for the VCS.

Merino, F.↗

Cell-Edge Detection via Selective Cooperation and Generalized Canonical Correlation

Improving the uplink quality of service for users located around the boundaries between cells is a key challenge in cellular systems. Existing approaches relying on power control throttle the rates of cell-center users, while multi-user detection requires accurate channel estimates for the cell-edge users, which is another challenge due to their low received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Utilizing the fact that cell-edge user signals are weak but common (received at roughly equal power) at different base stations (BSs), this paper establishes a connection between cell-edge user detection and generalized canonical correlation analysis (GCCA). It puts forth a GCCA-based method that leverages selective BS cooperation to recover the cell-edge user signal subspace even at low SNR. The cell-edge user signals can then be extracted from the resulting mixture via algebraic signal processing techniques. The paper includes theoretical analysis showing why GCCA recovers the correct subspace containing the cell-edge user signals under mild conditions. The proposed method can also identify the number of cell-edge users in the system, i.e., the common subspace dimension. Simulations reveal significant performance improvement relative to various multiuser detection techniques. Cell-edge detection performance is further studied as a function of how many / which BSs are selected, and it is shown that using the closest three BS is always the best choice.

base station cooperation↗

Using Tabulated Experimental Data to Drive an Orthotropic Elasto-Plastic Three-Dimensional Model for Impact Analysis

An orthotropic elasto-plastic-damage three-dimensional model with tabulated input has been developed to analyze the impact response of composite materials. The theory has been implemented as MAT 213 into a tailored version of LS-DYNA being developed under a joint effort of the FAA and NASA and has the following features: (a) the theory addresses any composite architecture that can be experimentally characterized as an orthotropic material and includes rate and temperature sensitivities, (b) the formulation is applicable for solid as well as shell element implementations and utilizes input data in a tabulated form directly from processed experimental data, (c) deformation and damage mechanics are both accounted for within the material model, (d) failure criteria are established that are functions of strain and damage parameters, and mesh size dependence is included, and (e) the theory can be efficiently implemented into a commercial code for both sequential and parallel executions. The salient features of the theory as implemented in LS-DYNA are illustrated using a widely used composite - the T800S/3900-2B[P2352W-19] BMS8-276 Rev-H-Unitape fiber/resin unidirectional composite. First, the experimental tests to characterize the deformation, damage and failure parameters in the material behavior are discussed. Second, the MAT213 input model and implementation details are presented with particular attention given to procedures that have been incorporated to ensure that the yield surfaces in the rate and temperature dependent plasticity model are convex. Finally, the paper concludes with a validation test designed to test the stability, accuracy and efficiency of the implemented model.

Polymer Matrix Composites↗

DESI Emission-line Galaxies: Unveiling the Diversity of [O II ] Profiles and Its Links to Star Formation and Morphology

We study the [O II ] profiles of emission-line galaxies (ELGs) from the Early Data Release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). To this end, we decompose and classify the shape of [O II ] profiles with the first two eigenspectra derived from principal component analysis. Our results show that DESI ELGs have diverse line profiles, which can be categorized into three main types: (1) narrow lines with a median width of ∼50 km s −1 , (2) broad lines with a median width of ∼80 km s −1 , and (3) two redshift systems with a median velocity separation of ∼150 km s −1 , i.e., double-peak galaxies. To investigate the connections between the line profiles and galaxy properties, we utilize the information from the COSMOS data set and compare the properties of ELGs, including star formation rate (SFR) and galaxy morphology, with the average properties of reference star-forming galaxies with similar stellar mass, sizes, and redshifts. Our findings show that, on average, DESI ELGs have a higher SFR and more asymmetrical/disturbed morphology than the reference galaxies. Moreover, we uncover a relationship between the line profiles, the excess SFR, and the excess asymmetry parameter, showing that DESI ELGs with broader [O II ] line profiles have more disturbed morphology and higher SFR than the reference star-forming galaxies. Finally, we discuss possible physical mechanisms giving rise to the observed relationship and the implications of our findings on the galaxy clustering measurements, including the halo occupation distribution modeling of DESI ELGs and the observed excess velocity dispersion of the satellite ELGs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determining the Reaction Kinetics and Thermodynamics of a Diels–Alder Network Using Dynamic Gel Criteria

We undertook a detailed rheological investigation to evaluate the kinetic parameters of the forward and reverse Diels–Alder (DA) reactions of a model network cross-linked using a furan prepolymer and a common aromatic bismaleimide. At high temperature where the Winter–Chambon’s criterion of frequency-independence was more applicable, a multiwave technique permitted van’t Hoff analysis and calculation of the reaction thermodynamic parameters, specifically the enthalpy and entropy of the reaction: ΔH° = –38.3 ± 5.2 kJ mol –1 and ΔS° = –94.3 ± 13.4 J mol –1 . At mild temperatures where the G'–G" crossover point is experimentally convenient to measure gelation, isothermal tests were used to obtain reasonable fDA kinetic parameters from Eyring analysis such as the apparent activation enthalpy and entropy of ΔH$^{‡}_{fDA}$ = 76.8 ± 6.9 kJ mol –1 and ΔS$^{‡}_{fDA}$= –82.8 ± 22.2 J mol –1 K –1 . Comparable rheokinetic methods include cross-linking density measurements and stress relaxation tests to calculate effective kinetics, whereas the critical gel conversion was consistently applied here. As a result, rate data are fitted with the Arrhenius equation for comparison purposes and the Eyring equation to demonstrate its broader utility.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Target Design for XFEL Experiments

High-energy-density (HED) experiments utilizing X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) must take a different approach to fielding these experiments than the current methodology used for the large HED facilities in the United States. The XFELs and their associated laser drivers have a much faster repetition rate than do the larger facilities. Experiments must be designed to execute hundreds rather than a few shots per experimental run. The new paradigm requires a different approach to data collection and analysis. It also requires an integrated approach to experiment and target design. Here, in this study, we developed new target designs for a future XFEL experiment that meet both experiment and cost goals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Geospatial assessment of the economic opportunity for reforestation in Maryland, USA

Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this may require landholders to forego other profits. Here, we utilize an ambitious geospatial approach to quantify economic opportunities for reforestation in the state of Maryland (USA) based on high-resolution remoting sensing, ecosystem modeling, and economic analysis. Our results identify spatially-explicit areas of economic opportunity where the potential revenue from forest carbon outcompetes the expected profit of existing cropland at the hectare scale. Specifically, we find that under a baseline economic scenario of 20 dollars per ton of carbon (5% rental rate) and decadal average crop profitability, a transition to forest on agricultural land would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland in Maryland under a 20-year land-use commitment. Accounting for variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5% to 55.4% of cropland would be immediately outcompeted by expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5% to 10.6% of outcompeted cropland within 20 years. Under the baseline economic scenario, an annual allocation of $5.8 million towards a carbon rental program could protect 6.93 Tg C (2.2% of the state’s total CSP) on reforested croplands. This moderate yearly cost is equal to 9.7% of Maryland’s average annual auction proceeds from participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (between 2014-2018), and 19.3% of the average annual subsidy payments for corn, soy, and wheat allocated over the same period. This methodological approach may be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accuracy of HVAC Load Predictions: Validation of EnergyPlus and DOE-2 using FLEXLAB Measurements

The aim of the project reported here was to better understand the level of accuracy of three building energy simulation (BES) engines (‘engines’) — EnergyPlus™, DOE-2.1e, and DOE-2.2 — by identifying and investigating significant deviations between the performance predicted by these engines and actual performance as measured in the FLEXLAB® test facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The specific test conditions included some of those prescribed in ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 - Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs. Detailed measurements of FLEXLAB performance, including indoor temperatures and heat fluxes and air-flow and water flow rates and temperatures in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, together with hourly weather data, were recorded and used in analyzing the simulation results from EnergyPlus v8.8, DOE-2.2 v3.65 and DOE-2.1e v127. These engines are commonly used in the United States for building energy code compliance, federal, state, and utility incentives programs, as well as energy efficient design of new buildings and energy retrofit of existing buildings. Seven conventional overhead mixing ventilation scenarios were tested and each engine was found to have a similar level of agreement with the measurements of space-level heating and sensible cooling loads. These results provide useful information regarding the accuracy of these engines in predicting the cooling and heating load elements of whole building energy performance. This information is intended for practitioners who are concerned about transitioning between simulation tools with different engines and for managers of utility programs leveraging these tools for evaluating and/or projecting measure savings to be incentivized under their programs. The results of the comparisons of simulated and measured performance indicate that the predictions from all three engines are not significantly different. The 24-hour average value of the absolute mean bias indicates the likely magnitude of the error in any particular case. The average mean bias is reduced by cancelation of overprediction in one case by underprediction in another. The daytime absolute mean biases, which may be more important for both energy performance and occupant comfort, are ~6%, presumably because of the greater complexity involved in simulating in the presence of solar radiation. EnergyPlus typically overpredicts the cooling load and/or underpredicts the heating load by ~1.5% and the DOE-2 engines typically underpredict the cooling load by approximately the same amount. The Root Mean Square Error is relatively more sensitive to shorter term variations in the difference between predicted and measured loads; the three engines have similar values, ~10%, suggesting that the uncertainties in their predictions of peak loads may also be similar in magnitude. The implication of these results is that users, both designers and program analysts, can use EnergyPlus, DOE-2.1e, or DOE-2.2 to model conventional commercial buildings equipped with overhead mixing ventilation with a similar level of confidence. Further work is required to better understand the variability in the level of agreement between the engine predictions and FLEXLAB measurements, where a particular engine will agree well with FLEXLAB in some cases and not so well in others and another engine will agree or disagree in different cases. As the sources of this variability are identified and eliminated or reduced significantly, it is recommended that the experimental capabilities and methods developed in the study reported here should be applied to validating heating and cooling load calculations for spaces with different types of furniture and miscellaneous loads. These methods should then be applied to low energy space conditioning systems in EnergyPlus including, in particular, radiant slab and radiant ceiling panel cooling and heating systems and ‘mixed mode’ systems that combine mechanical cooling and natural ventilation systems, focusing on controls, including control of thermal mass. The work reported here addresses the conventional method of heating and cooling occupied spaces; other methods, such as the use of radiant heating and cooling systems have the potential to provide equivalent occupant comfort, or better, with lower energy consumption. These systems are addressed more explicitly in EnergyPlus but there is a need for empirical validation to give users the same level of confidence in modeling these systems that they have, or should have, in modeling conventional systems, based on the results presented here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗