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Results for “uncertainty reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Relativistic proton-nucleus scattering and one-boson-exchange models

Relativistic p-(Ca-40) elastic scattering observables are calculated using four sets of relativistic NN amplitudes obtained from different one-boson-exchange (OBE) models. The first two sets are based upon a relativistic equation in which one particle is on mass shell and the other two sets are obtained from a quasipotential reduction of the Bethe-Salpeter equation. Results at 200, 300, and 500 MeV are presented for these amplitudes. Differences between the predictions of these models provide a study of the uncertainty in constructing Dirac optical potentials from OBE-based NN amplitudes.

Maung, Khin Maung↗
NASA NTRS2013

Aerosol Optical Depths over Oceans: a View from MISR Retrievals and Collocated MAN and AERONET in Situ Observations

In this study, aerosol optical depths over oceans are analyzed from satellite and surface perspectives. Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) aerosol retrievals are investigated and validated primarily against Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) observations. Furthermore, AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data from 19 island and coastal sites is incorporated in this study. The 270 MISRMAN comparison points scattered across all oceans were identified. MISR on average overestimates aerosol optical depths (AODs) by 0.04 as compared to MAN; the correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error are 0.95 and 0.06, respectively. A new screening procedure based on retrieval region characterization is proposed, which is capable of substantially reducing MISR retrieval biases. Over 1000 additional MISRAERONET comparison points are added to the analysis to confirm the validity of the method. The bias reduction is effective within all AOD ranges. Setting a clear flag fraction threshold to 0.6 reduces the bias to below 0.02, which is close to a typical ground-based measurement uncertainty. Twelve years of MISR data are analyzed with the new screening procedure. The average over ocean AOD is reduced by 0.03, from 0.15 to 0.12. The largest AOD decrease is observed in high latitudes of both hemispheres, regions with climatologically high cloud cover. It is postulated that the screening procedure eliminates spurious retrieval errors associated with cloud contamination and cloud adjacency effects. The proposed filtering method can be used for validating aerosol and chemical transport models.

AERONET↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of Particle Size Distribution with Efficient Packing on Powder Flowability and Selective Laser Melting Process

The powder bed-based additive manufacturing (AM) process contains uncertainties in the powder spreading process and powder bed quality, leading to problems in repeatability and quality of the additively manufactured parts. This work focuses on identifying the uncertainty induced by particle size distribution (PSD) on powder flowability and the laser melting process, using Ti6Al4V as a model material. The flowability test results show that the effect of PSDs on flowability is not linear, rather the PSDs near dense packing ratios cause significant reductions in flowability (indicated by the increase in the avalanche angle and break energy of the powders measured by a revolution powder analyzer). The effects of PSDs on the selective laser melting (SLM) process are identified by using in-situ high-speed X-ray imaging to observe the melt pool dynamics during the melting process. The results show that the powder beds made of powders with dense packing ratios exhibit larger build height during laser melting. The effects of PSD with efficient packing on powder flowability and selective laser melting process revealed in this work are important for understanding process uncertainties induced by feedstock powders and for designing mitigation approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

Options for Robust Airfoil Optimization under Uncertainty

A robust optimization method is developed to overcome point-optimization at the sampled design points. This method combines the best features from several preliminary methods proposed by the authors and their colleagues. The robust airfoil shape optimization is a direct method for drag reduction over a given range of operating conditions and has three advantages: (1) it prevents severe degradation in the off-design performance by using a smart descent direction in each optimization iteration, (2) it uses a large number of spline control points as design variables yet the resulting airfoil shape does not need to be smoothed, and (3) it allows the user to make a tradeoff between the level of optimization and the amount of computing time consumed. For illustration purposes, the robust optimization method is used to solve a lift-constrained drag minimization problem for a two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil in Euler flow with 20 geometric design variables.

Padula, Sharon L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayes goes fast: Uncertainty quantification for a covariant energy density functional emulated by the reduced basis method

A covariant energy density functional is calibrated using a principled Bayesian statistical framework informed by experimental binding energies and charge radii of several magic and semi-magic nuclei. The Bayesian sampling required for the calibration is enabled by the emulation of the high-fidelity model through the implementation of a reduced basis method (RBM)—a set of dimensionality reduction techniques that can speed up demanding calculations involving partial differential equations by several orders of magnitude. The RBM emulator we build—using only 100 evaluations of the high-fidelity model—is able to accurately reproduce the model calculations in tens of milliseconds on a personal computer, an increase in speed of nearly a factor of 3,300 when compared to the original solver. Besides the analysis of the posterior distribution of parameters, we present model calculations for masses and radii with properly estimated uncertainties. We also analyze the model correlation between the slope of the symmetry energy L and the neutron skin of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. The straightforward implementation and outstanding performance of the RBM makes it an ideal tool for assisting the nuclear theory community in providing reliable estimates with properly quantified uncertainties of physical observables. Such uncertainty quantification tools will become essential given the expected abundance of data from the recently inaugurated and future experimental and observational facilities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Prognosis of Non-Planar Fatigue Crack Growth

Quantifying the uncertainty in model parameters for the purpose of damage prognosis can be accomplished utilizing Bayesian inference and damage diagnosis data from sources such as non-destructive evaluation or structural health monitoring. The number of samples required to solve the Bayesian inverse problem through common sampling techniques (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo) renders high-fidelity finite element-based damage growth models unusable due to prohibitive computation times. However, these types of models are often the only option when attempting to model complex damage growth in real-world structures. Here, a recently developed high-fidelity crack growth model is used which, when compared to finite element-based modeling, has demonstrated reductions in computation times of three orders of magnitude through the use of surrogate models and machine learning. The model is flexible in that only the expensive computation of the crack driving forces is replaced by the surrogate models, leaving the remaining parameters accessible for uncertainty quantification. A probabilistic prognosis framework incorporating this model is developed and demonstrated for non-planar crack growth in a modified, edge-notched, aluminum tensile specimen. Predictions of remaining useful life are made over time for five updates of the damage diagnosis data, and prognostic metrics are utilized to evaluate the performance of the prognostic framework. Challenges specific to the probabilistic prognosis of non-planar fatigue crack growth are highlighted and discussed in the context of the experimental results.

Leser, Patrick E.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis for constrained optimization of nuclear waste vitrification

Abstract The vitrification of high‐level waste (HLW) by heating a mixture of glass‐forming chemicals (GFCs) with the waste can be improved using a constrained optimization problem. This study explores how different uncertainty propagation (UP) methods implemented with the optimization process can affect the glass formulation of nuclear waste glasses. UP is the effort of propagating uncertain inputs through a system to understand and quantify output distributions. Uncertainty intervals are crafted from output distributions to inform the optimization algorithm. UP is often implemented with Monte Carlo (MC) sampling for large nonlinear systems, which can be difficult to implement within a constrained optimization algorithm that requires derivative information. Other UP methods often used for optimization under uncertainty (OUU) can be designed to work within an established constrained optimization framework. Methods of UP are evaluated in this study including iterative sampling approaches, first‐order approximations, and surrogate modeling with machine learning (ML). A method of dimensional reduction based on global sensitivity analysis is introduced to support the UP methods for the large dimensionality of the problem. Analytical UP methods able to achieve similar optimums 10 times faster than the baseline MC approach, and produce 93.9% similar output distributions are reported.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cloud‐Surface Coupling Alters the Morning Transition From Stable to Unstable Boundary Layer

Abstract Due to surface heating, the morning boundary layer transits from stable to neutral or convective conditions, exerting critical influences on low tropospheric thermodynamics. Low clouds closely interact with the boundary layer development, yet their interactions bear considerable uncertainties. Our study reveals that cloud‐surface coupling alters the morning transition from stable to unstable boundary layer and thus notably affects the diurnal variation of the boundary layer. Specifically, due to the reduction in surface fluxes, decoupled clouds can delay the process of eroding nocturnal inversion by 0.8‐hr and even prevent the transition of the boundary layer from happening for 12% of decoupled cases, keeping the boundary layer in a stable state during the noontime. On the other hand, when clouds are coupled with the surface, cloud‐top radiative cooling can directly cool the upper boundary layer to facilitate sub‐cloud convection, leading to an unstable boundary layer in the earlier morning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Isovector Axial Charge and Form Factors of Nucleons from Lattice QCD

A survey of the calculations of the isovector axial vector form factor of the nucleon using lattice QCD is presented. Attention is paid to statistical and systematic uncertainties, in particular those due to excited state contributions. Based on a comparison of results from various collaborations, a case is made that lattice results are consistent within 10%. A similar level of uncertainty is in the axial charge gAu−d, the mean squared axial charge radius ⟨rA2⟩, the induced pseudoscalar charge gP∗, and the pion–nucleon coupling gπNN. Even with the current methodology, a significant reduction in errors is expected over the next few years with higher statistics data on more ensembles closer to the physical point. Lattice QCD results for the form factor GA(Q2) are compatible with those obtained from the recent MINERνA experiment but lie 2–3σ higher than the phenomenological extraction from the old ν–deuterium bubble chamber scattering data for Q2>0.3 GeV2. Current data show that the dipole ansatz does not have enough parameters to fit the form factor over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, whereas even a z2 truncation of the z expansion or a low order Padé are sufficient. Looking ahead, lattice QCD calculations will provide increasingly precise results over the range 0≤Q2≤1 GeV2, and MINERνA-like experiments will extend the range to Q2∼2 GeV2 or higher. Nevertheless, improvements in lattice methods to (i) further control excited state contributions and (ii) extend the range of Q2 are needed.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRS1986

A factor of 2 reduction in theoretical F2 peak electron density due to enhanced vibrational excitation of N2 in summer at solar maximum

The degree to which the O(+) + N2 reaction rate is increased as a result of enhanced vibrational excitation of the N2 molecule in the thermosphere was investigated. It is found that the reaction rate may be sufficiently elevated in summer at solar maximum to decrease the peak O(+) density by a factor of 2, but there is only a small reduction in the winter peak density. Therefore the vibrational excitation of N2 acts to increase the magnitude of the seasonal anomaly. This work emphasizes the need for more laboratory work to clear up uncertainties in some of the key parameters.

Richards, P. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Characterization of a Joint Exhibiting a Reduction in Damping at High Energy

Even with the advent of additive manufacturing, the vast majority of complex structures are comprised of individual components held together with bolted joints. However, bolted joints present a challenge for mechanical design as they are a source of nonlinearity and increase the uncertainty in the overall behavior of the system in a dynamic environment. While many advances have been made in the ability to accurately model and test bolted joints, it is still an open area of research. Modes of vibration that exercise bolted joints typically exhibit nonlinear behavior where, with increased excitation level, the natural frequency decreases (i.e. softens) and the damping increases. However, the system under study for this work has an axial mode which does not follow this trend; it does soften as expected, but, after an initial increase, the apparent damping decreases with excitation amplitude. At the highest excitation level, the frequency of the mode decreases to that of a nearby bending mode and the response is amplified nearly 500% above that at lower levels. It is unclear whether the decrease in damping is due to the coupling of the two modes or if it is a characteristic of the axial mode. Therefore, the objective of this project is to investigate the coupling between the axial and bending modes and the dynamics leading to the decrease in damping.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2018

International Space Station Operational Experience and Its Impacts on Future Mission Supportability

Operational experience gained on the International Space Station (ISS) has enabled significant improvements in failure rate estimates for various Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs). These improved estimates, in turn, allow more efficient and accurate spare parts allocations for future missions, enabling significant reductions in both logistics mass and risk. This paper examines the value of ISS experience to date in terms of its impact on supportability for future missions. A supportability model is presented that assesses the spares required as a function of mission endurance and risk, taking into account uncertainty in failure rate estimates. Changes in ISS Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLSS) ORU failure rate estimates are described and discussed, both in terms of the overall population of ORUs and the evolution of failure rate estimates over time for a particular item. The value of those updated failure rate estimates is assessed by calculating the estimated spares mass requirements for two cases, using the initial, pre-ISS estimates and using the estimates informed by on-orbit experience. Hidden risk resulting from underestimated failure rates is also assessed. These results indicate that, for a 1,200-day Mars mission, ISS experience has enabled a 3.9 t to 6.0 t reduction in ECLSS spares mass required and uncovered failure rate underestimates that would have resulted in an order of magnitude increase in risk had they not been discovered and corrected. The implications of these results for system development and mission planning are discussed, including approaches to accelerate the rate of failure rate refinement and the risks associated with making changes or introducing new systems. Overall, test time is a critical factor that must be carefully considered in system development, and new systems must budget appropriate time for testing in a relevant environment or accept higher risk and logistics requirements on future missions.

Owens, Andrew C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Finite- and infinite-volume study of DDπ scattering

We develop a comprehensive framework for extracting the pole position and properties of the doubly-charmed tetraquark $T$$^{+}_{cc}$(3875) from lattice QCD data using the relativistic three-particle formalism. This approach incorporates the effect of the one-pion exchange diagram in DDπ and DD ∗ scattering, making it applicable at energies coinciding with the left-hand cut in the partial-wave projected DD ∗ amplitude. We present an example application of this framework to existing lattice QCD data at mπ = 280 MeV. We solve the integral equations describing the DDπ reaction, use LSZ reduction to determine the corresponding DD ∗ amplitude, and find the values of the infinite-volume two- and three-body K matrices that lead to agreement with lattice DD ∗ phase shifts within their uncertainties. Using these K matrices in the three-particle quantization condition, we describe the finite- volume DD ∗ spectrum and find good agreement with the lattice QCD energies. Our results suggest that, at this pion mass, the tetraquark appears as a pair of subthreshold complex poles whose precise location strongly depends on the value of the DDπ three-particle K matrix.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gridded daily weather data for North America with comprehensive uncertainty quantification

Abstract Access to daily high-resolution gridded surface weather data based on direct observations and over long time periods is essential for many studies and applications including vegetation, wildlife, soil health, hydrological modelling, and as driver data in Earth system models. We present Daymet V4, a 40-year daily meteorological dataset on a 1 km grid for North America, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, providing temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation, vapor pressure, snow water equivalent, and day length. The dataset includes an objective quantification of uncertainty based on strict cross-validation analysis for temperature and precipitation results. The dataset represents several improvements from a previous version, and this data descriptor provides complete documentation for updated methods. Improvements include: reductions in the timing bias of input reporting weather station measurements; improvement to the three-dimensional regression model techniques in the core algorithm; and a novel approach to handling high elevation temperature measurement biases. We show cross-validation analyses with the underlying weather station data to demonstrate the technical validity of new dataset generation methods, and to quantify improved accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Cost of Offshore Wind Energy in the United States From 2025 to 2050

This study presents estimates of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy throughout major U.S. coastal regions between a time frame of 2025 - 2050. The LCOE modeling accounts for impacts of supply chain shocks, inflation, and rising interest rates on cost. Given the near-term uncertainty in these factors, we present three possible scenarios driven by how uncertainty in costs, technology, and deployment may evolve over time. The cost increases reported by industry in recent years will likely be felt over next several years, but we expect long-term cost reductions enabled by growing offshore wind deployment and industry learning. This study helps inform decision-makers about the potential role that offshore wind energy can play in future clean energy strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗