Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty management”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-service battery energy storage system optimization and control

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) have become fundamental part of modern power systems due to their capability to provide multiple grid services. As the renewable penetration increases, BESS procurement is also expected to increase where it is envisioned to play a systematic and strategical role in power systems planning and operation. Hence, in this paper we present a multiple grid service procurement and operation for BESS - ranging from energy arbitrage, reserve/regulation services, power factor correction, and demand management. The proposed framework considers an optimal multi-temporal dimension, designed to be operable for both planning and real-time operation. Moreover, non-linearity inherent to BESS services and uncertainty associated to market forecasts variables are addressed using techniques such as polyhedral norms and robust optimization approaches. Here, the developed model is tested using a utility-scaled BESS and the obtained results show the effectiveness of the systematic BESS multi-service planning and operation approach.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dose Rate Effects on Degradation of Nuclear Power Plant Electrical Cable Insulation at a Common Dose

The intent of this report is to address an identified knowledge gap in relating accelerated aging of nuclear electrical cables to service aging: dose rate effects (DRE). Here, DRE refer to gamma radiation-induced polymer degradation being a function of dose rate in addition to total absorbed dose. The concern raised is that historical qualification conducted at higher dose rates to simulate service lifetime may underestimate insulation degradation that occurs at lower dose rates in service. In the work described herein, common nuclear cable insulation materials—cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) and ethylene propylene diene elastomer (EPDM)—were subjected to accelerated aging at ambient temperature (26°C) at different gamma dose rates of 100, 200 and 1800 Gy/h for select exposure durations to achieve constant total doses of 170, 210 and 300 kGy to evaluate DRE. First, the cable insulation material types investigated are described. Then, the accelerated aging experimental process involving gamma irradiation applied to the insulation specimens at room temperature and different dose rates is discussed. Then, the experimental characterization techniques used to perform this work are elucidated. These include elongation at break (EAB), mass change, yellowness index (YI), carbonyl index (CI), density, indenter modulus (IM), and relaxation constant (t). Theory of polymer degradation is discussed, and characterization results and discussion are provided. Finally, concluding remarks are made. The findings from this work and cited prior work reveal that DRE are material dependent, even between similar material categories (e.g., XLPE). In the case of the EPDM studied, degradation of ductility was observed to be greater at higher dose rate for the same total dose, indicating accelerated gamma aging to be more conservative than extended aging. Thus, conclusions regarding the conservatism of historical qualification likely require additional consideration for specific materials and conditions in question. The results of this study support the contention that, due to inherent limitations and uncertainties associated with prediction of cable remaining useful life from accelerated aging experiments, trending of installed cable insulation health status will be more practical and useful for safe and efficient cable aging management repair and replace decisions than lifetime prediction from historical qualification. The combination of material robustness demonstrated by the qualification process and ongoing monitoring of cable health status combine to provide confidence in continued safe use of existing nuclear cables. Additional research into effective and efficient condition monitoring methods for non-destructive evaluation of installed cables is needed to support aging cable management, including material studies to inform interpretation of measured results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Linear adaptive control of a single-tether system

A control law for a single-tether orbiting satellite system based on a reduced order linear adaptive control technique is presented. The main advantages of this technique are its design simplicity and the facts that specific system parameters and model linearization are not required when designing the controller. Two controllers are developed: one which uses only tension in the tether as control actuation and one which uses both tension and in-plane thrusters as control actuation. Both a sixth-order nonlinear and an 11th-order bead model of a tethered satellite system are used for simulation purposes, demonstrating the ability of the controller to manage an uncertain system. Retrieval and stationkeeping results using these nonlinear models and the linear adaptive controller demonstrate the feasibility of the method. The robustness of the controller with respect to parameter uncertainties is also demonstrated by changing the nonlinear model and parameters within the model without redesigning the controller.

Greene, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Trajectory-Based Loads for the Ares I-X Test Flight Vehicle

In trajectory-based loads, the structural engineer treats each point on the trajectory as a load case. Distributed aero, inertial, and propulsion forces are developed for the structural model which are equivalent to the integrated values of the trajectory model. Free-body diagrams are then used to solve for the internal forces, or loads, that keep the applied aero, inertial, and propulsion forces in dynamic equilibrium. There are several advantages to using trajectory-based loads. First, consistency is maintained between the integrated equilibrium equations of the trajectory analysis and the distributed equilibrium equations of the structural analysis. Second, the structural loads equations are tied to the uncertainty model for the trajectory systems analysis model. Atmosphere, aero, propulsion, mass property, and controls uncertainty models all feed into the dispersions that are generated for the trajectory systems analysis model. Changes in any of these input models will affect structural loads response. The trajectory systems model manages these inputs as well as the output from the structural model over thousands of dispersed cases. Large structural models with hundreds of thousands of degrees of freedom would execute too slowly to be an efficient part of several thousand system analyses. Trajectory-based loads provide a means for the structures discipline to be included in the integrated systems analysis. Successful applications of trajectory-based loads methods for the Ares I-X vehicle are covered in this paper. Preliminary design loads were based on 2000 trajectories using Monte Carlo dispersions. Range safety loads were tied to 8423 malfunction turn trajectories. In addition, active control system loads were based on 2000 preflight trajectories using Monte Carlo dispersions.

Vause, Roland F.↗
NASA NTRS2024

NASA Engineering and Safety Center Lunar Rover Design Concepts Assessments

Mass is a significant risk to programs and projects as they transition from formulation to implementation, especially in larger human space systems where delivery mass or volume can be a constrained commodity. • Concepts developed without an adequate systems-engineering basis, including design and operations experience, may miss significant functionality and subsequent mass required for integration or operations. • Further uncertainty can be associated with not fully understanding design best practices and standards that drive mass, such as design for minimum risk or fault tolerance.1 • Finally, the appropriate systems engineering mass properties management rigor and technical discipline insight are required to set the mass baseline, including appropriate mass growth allowance (MGA) to ensure program success. Mass is a key quantity that should be constantly monitored by the systems engineer and the program/project management stakeholder to ensure mission compatibility throughout the project life cycle. In addition, mass is a key programmatic performance metric monitored by the NASA Chief Financial Officer for current and future program cost estimating. NASA Exploration Systems sought an assessment of reasonableness with respect to different potential rover concepts that balances mass needs and human-class cargo lander capabilities. Appropriate systems engineering mass properties management rigor and technical discipline insight were used, and are required to set the mass baseline, including appropriate MGA to ensure program success. Two independent Lunar rover concepts were evaluated, with a goal to understand concept credibility and the Lunar rover designs potential extensibility for Mars surface operations. A notional generic rover concept is shown in Figure 1.

Systems Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic R&D Portfolio Management Applied to Energy Storage

Here this paper proposes a methodology to analyze the potential of several alternative technologies in advancing a research and development portfolio. The methodology considers technology maturation, use case requirements, performance goals, cost projections, and existing research and development (R&D) efforts to predict the impact of various R&D investment tracks across several energy storage technologies. Technology maturation and cost projections are derived from a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation, yielding results that incorporate uncertainty in modeling the impact of future R&D. This framework allows the researcher to perform a robust sensitivity analysis to uncover critical pathways and areas where investment will have a high impact.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2017

Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) Interface Control Document

This Interface Control Document (ICD) documents the airspace adaptation and air traffic inputs of NASA's Future ATM Concepts and Evaluation Tool (FACET). Its intended audience is the project manager, project team, development team, and stakeholders interested in interfacing with the system. FACET equips Air Traffic Management (ATM) researchers and service providers with a way to explore, develop and evaluate advanced air transportation concepts before they are field-tested and eventually deployed. FACET is a flexible software tool that is capable of quickly generating and analyzing thousands of aircraft trajectories. It provides researchers with a simulation environment for preliminary testing of advanced ATM concepts. Using aircraft performance profiles, airspace models, weather data, and flight schedules, the tool models trajectories for the climb, cruise, and descent phases of flight for each type of aircraft. An advanced graphical interface displays traffic patterns in two and three dimensions, under various current and projected conditions for specific airspace regions or over the entire continental United States. The system is able to simulate a full day's dynamic national airspace system (NAS) operations, model system uncertainty, measure the impact of different decision-makers in the NAS, and provide analysis of the results in graphical form, including sector, airport, fix, and airway usage statistics. NASA researchers test and analyze the system-wide impact of new traffic flow management algorithms under anticipated air traffic growth projections on the nation's air traffic system. In addition to modeling the airspace system for NASA research, FACET has also successfully transitioned into a valuable tool for operational use. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) traffic flow managers and commercial airline dispatchers have used FACET technology for real-time operations planning. FACET integrates live air traffic data from FAA radar systems and weather data from the National Weather Service to summarize NAS performance. This information allows system operators to reroute flights around congested airspace and severe weather to maintain safety and minimize delay. FACET also supports the planning and post-operational evaluation of reroute strategies at the national level to maximize system efficiency. For the commercial airline passenger, strategic planning with FACET can result in fewer flight delays and cancellations. The performance capabilities of FACET are largely due to its architecture, which strikes a balance between flexibility and fidelity. FACET is capable of modeling the airspace operations for the continental United States, processing thousands of aircraft on a single computer. FACET was written in Java and C, enabling the portability of its software to a variety of operating systems. In addition, FACET was designed with a modular software architecture to facilitate rapid prototyping of diverse ATM concepts. Several advanced ATM concepts have already been implemented in FACET, including aircraft self-separation, prediction of aircraft demand and sector congestion, system-wide impact assessment of traffic flow management constraints, and wind-optimal routing.

FACET↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Durability testing of actual Hanford waste glasses and their non-radioactive simulant glasses

The low-activity waste (LAW) fraction of Hanford tank waste will be converted to glass at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and disposed on the Hanford site. The chemical durability of LAW glasses has been researched for decades to satisfy contract requirements. Most LAW glass durability data has been generated on non-radioactive simulant glasses fabricated via crucible melts. These non-radioactive glasses were chosen due to safety and cost reasons with confidence that radioactive waste glasses would exhibit similar behavior. To reduce the risk of significant differences in laboratory test response data between WTP melter waste glass and simulant glass, Product Consistency Tests (PCT, i.e., ASTM C1285-21) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 1313 durability tests were performed on actual and simulant LAW glasses fabricated using laboratory-scaled melters. Actual and simulant glass durability test results are presented and statistically compared. Finally, differences in test responses were found to be within experimental uncertainty.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Model Package Report: Plateau to River Groundwater Model Version 8.3

This model package report documents the groundwater flow component of the Plateau to River Groundwater Model (P2R Model), which is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. The objective of this report is to describe the modeling objectives, conceptualization, model implementation, calibration, sensitivity, uncertainty, configuration control, limitations, and future model enhancements of the groundwater flow component of the P2R Model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar, Wind, and Load Forecasting Dataset for MISO, NYISO, and SPP Balancing Areas

The Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program is an initiative intended to foster "a fundamental shift in grid management rooted in an understanding of asset risk and system risk" (ARPA-E 2020). Launched by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), the program supports efforts to incorporate uncertainty in electric power decision making. In support of PERFORM, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced a set of time-coincident forecasts of solar, wind, and load profiles. As part of Phase I of the PERFORM effort, NREL created a dataset that consists of one year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts based on data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Bryce et al. 2023). In Phase II, NREL developed similar datasets for three other U.S. Independent System Operators (ISO): the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1977

An analysis of the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle with emphasis on high-level waste management, volume 1

The programs and plans of the U.S. government for the "back end of the nuclear fuel cycle" were examined to determine if there were any significant technological or regulatory gaps and inconsistencies. Particular emphasis was placed on analysis of high-level nuclear waste management plans, since the permanent disposal of radioactive waste has emerged as a major factor in the public acceptance of nuclear power. The implications of various light water reactor fuel cycle options were examined including throwaway, stowaway, uranium recycle, and plutonium plus uranium recycle. The results of this study indicate that the U.S. program for high-level waste management has significant gaps and inconsistencies. Areas of greatest concern include: the adequacy of the scientific data base for geological disposal; programs for the the disposal of spent fuel rods; interagency coordination; and uncertainties in NRC regulatory requirements for disposal of both commercial and military high-level waste.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tools for Climate Impacts on Water Resources

Climate and environmental change are expected to fundamentally alter the nation's hydrological cycle and water availability. Satellites provide global or near-global coverage using instruments, allowing for consistent, well-calibrated, and equivalent-quality data of the Earth system. A major goal for NASA climate and environmental change research is to create multi-instrument data sets to span the multi-decadal time scales of climate change and to combine these data with those from modeling and surface-based observing systems to improve process understanding and predictions. NASA and Earth science data and analyses will ultimately enable more accurate climate prediction, and characterization of uncertainties. NASA's Applied Sciences Program works with other groups, including other federal agencies, to transition demonstrated observational capabilities to operational capabilities. A summary of some of NASA tools for improved water resources management will be presented.

Toll, David↗
NASA NTRS2013

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.

ATM↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Epic Chronicle of Designing Cassini's Titan Flyby Altitudes

The selection and optimization of Titan flyby altitudes for NASA's Cassini mission at Saturn has traveled a long, fascinating, and often torturous sixteen-year path - starting in 2001, when pre-arrival trajectory design decisions had to be made, through April of 2017 when Cassini's last, and arguably most critical, low flyby takes place. The chronicle of designing and updating the Titan flyby altitudes have twists and turns enough to satisfy a full-length novel or feature film, including: critical design decision-making before arrival with multiple atmospheric models, high uncertainties, and limited data; early flybys that seemed to show trends that weren't there; use and misuse of statistical analysis; unexpected surprises with limited reaction time; navigation of a scientific, engineering, and management community with a wide array of inherent biases; and consideration of a variety of project risk postures in a high-scrutiny, high-impact, high-reward environment.

Bittner, Molly↗
NASA NTRS2020

2020 IEEE Paper on Psyche margin management, Draft

In January 2017, the mission concept Psyche: Journey to a Metal World was one of two concepts selected by NASA for implementation as part of the 14th Discovery mission competition. Over the course of the past year, the Psyche team has actively worked to refine and mature the technical design, culminating in a successful completion of the Project Preliminary Design review and approval to proceed to Phase C in mid-2019. Psyche is a deep space mission utilizing solar electric propulsion (SEP), consisting of SPT-140 Hall thrusters which have been successfully employed on multiple commercial spacecraft. When launched, Psyche will carry over 1000 kg of Xenon, and will represent the farthest usage of electric propulsion usage from the Sun – a distance of over 3.3 AU. The use of solar electric propulsion in deep space has resulted in challenges unique to other missions. Spacecraft designs typically balance margins across two main elements – mass and power – that are independent of one another. Utilizing a low thrust trajectory through the application of electric propulsion introduces more elements - namely flight time, missed thrust percentage and thruster duty cycle. Moreover, these elements become connected, presenting additional relationships that must be considered. This paper will present an overview of the margin management process for Psyche, and how it has evolved from the early proposal stage to its current state. It will discuss the elements that are margined, their relationship with one another, and key uncertainties that must be addressed. It discusses challenges and mitigations obtained during the refinement of the Psyche project, culminating in a new margin strategy that enables optimization across many of the system elements, and will serve as a template for future deep space SEP missions.

Hart, William↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This project is an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate a multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation are occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

John Hocknell↗
NASA NTRS2024

Central Park Ecological Conservation: Assessing Tree Health Conditions in New York City’s Central Park with NASA Earth Observation Data

The Central Park Conservancy stewards New York City’s iconic Central Park with a mission to preserve the park for all. This mission is complicated by the spread of Dutch elm disease (DED) which has threatened the culturally and ecologically significant American elm tree (Ulmus americana). Central Park is home to one of the largest and last remaining urban concentrations of American elm and the Conservancy currently protects them through integrated pest management. This paper discusses an interdisciplinary feasibility study that assessed the application of NASA Earth observations from 2014 to 2023 to detect changes in forest phenology possibly related to DED. Landsat 8 and 9 imagery was used to calculate multiyear time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and quantify changes in land surface phenology for a given year. A pixel-based logistic regression analysis was performed using changes in NDVI, tree site locations, and recorded occurrences of trees infected with DED as inputs. The results of this analysis show that changes in NDVI derived from Landsat data are capable of detecting unhealthy tree canopies with 71% precision and healthy tree canopies with 41% precision. The study had uncertainties and limitations due to the spatial and temporal resolutions of Landsat, the natural variability in land surface phenology and NDVI, and the attempt to detect disease impacts while disease prevention and mitigation is occurring. As is, the findings of this study and its methods provide managers with an approach for integrating Earth observations to make more informed decisions in the application and timing of urban forest management activities.

Central Park↗