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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

ECAR-7932 Rev 0 Large Eddy Simulation of MARVEL Reactor Core Subchannel to Evaluate Model Uncertainty of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equation Based Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis

In the previous work (ECAR-7210), the peak cladding temperature of the MARVEL microreactor has been evaluated by steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Although numerical uncertainties of RANS-based CFD simulations has been assessed in ECAR-7210, the model uncertainty of RANS turbulence models must be investigated to resolve the issues related to inaccurate prediction of turbulent heat flux and flow pulsation in a tight lattice rod bundle using the steady-state RANS simulations. Consequently, this ECAR conducted a high-fidelity CFD analysis utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES) to generate reference data and investigated the model uncertainty of RANS-based CFD simulations.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Image processing methods for Rayleigh scattering measurements of diesel spray mixing at high repetition rate

This work describes the diagnostic implementation and image processing methods to quantitatively measure diesel spray mixing injected into a high-pressure, high-temperature environment. We used a high-repetition-rate pulse-burst laser developed in-house, a high-speed CMOS camera, and optimized the optical configuration to capture Rayleigh scattering images of the vaporized fuel jets inside a constant volume chamber. The experimental installation was modified to reduce reflections and flare levels to maximize the images’ signal-to-noise ratios by anti-reflection coatings on windows and surfaces, as well as series of optical baffles. Because of the specificities of the high-speed system, several image processing techniques had to be developed and implemented to provide quantitative fuel concentration measurements. We find that these methods involve various correction procedures such as camera linearity, laser intensity fluctuation, dynamic background flare, as well as beam-steering effects. Image inpainting was also applied to correct the Rayleigh scattering signal from large scatterers (e.g. particulates). The experiments demonstrate that applying planar laser Rayleigh scattering at high repetition rate to quantitatively resolve the mixing of fuel and ambient gases in diesel jets is challenging, but possible. The thorough analysis of the experimental uncertainty and comparisons to past data prove that such measurements can be accurate, whilst providing valuable information about the mixing processes of high-pressure diesel jets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analytical workflow dependence of experimental observables for uranium chemistries

In this work, we investigated how the sequencing of laboratory analytical methods used for chemical and morphological characterization influences analytical findings for particulate materials relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle, including UO2, U3O8, studtite (UO2O2·4H2O), and β-UO3, in the context of nuclear forensic analysis. Particles of each chemistry obtained from consistent production batches were exposed to Raman spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy in varying orders to elucidate how the order in which the techniques are applied influences morphological and chemical observations as a function of particle size. The results indicate that particles from all four chemistries exposed to high-resolution electron imaging before Raman spectral analysis demonstrate optical vibrational spectral changes that reduce accurate interpretation of the underlying chemistry via Raman spectral analysis. We hypothesize that these changes are due to the thermal load of the electron beam imparted to the sample being unable to be dissipated by materials with poor thermal conduction properties. Results from this study will aid in determining best practices for forensic analysis procedures to reduce uncertainty in chemical determination of unknown particulate samples.

Manns, Rebecca [University of Nevada, Las Vegas]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the performance of event reconstruction algorithms in the JSNS 2 experiment using a 252 Cf calibration source

JSNS 2 investigates short-baseline neutrino oscillations using a 24-meter baseline and a 17-tonne Gd-loaded liquid scintillator target. Accurate event-reconstruction algorithms are crucial for analyzing experimental data. The algorithms undergo meticulous validation through calibration with a 252 Cf source. This paper outlines the methodology and evaluates the reconstruction performance, focusing on neutrino interactions up to approximately 50 MeV for sterile neutrino searches. Both 252 Cf and Michel electron events are studied to evaluate reconstruction accuracy. The analysis concludes that the uncertainty of the fiducial volume, with an appropriate correction, is much less than the requirement of JSNS 2 requirement (10%). Furthermore, the energy resolution is measured to be 3.3 ± 0.1% for the Michel electron endpoint and 4.3 ± 0.1% for the n-Gd peak in the central region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parameter dependencies of the experimental nitrogen concentration required for detachment on ASDEX Upgrade and JET

While current tokamak experiments are beginning to use real-time feedback control systems to manage the plasma exhaust, future tokamaks still require validation of theoretical models used to predict the threshold impurity concentration required to sufficiently reduce the power and particle fluxes to the divertor. This work exploits new spectroscopic measurements of the divertor nitrogen concentration, c n , in partially detached N 2 -seeded H-mode plasmas on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) and JET with the ITER-Like Wall (JET-ILW) to test the parameter dependencies of the power flowing to the outer divertor, P div,outer , and the separatrix electron density, n e.sep . A least-squares regression of the AUG measurements demonstrates that the threshold c n required for detachment scales as $c_n∝P^{1.19±0.32}_{div,outer}n^{-2.77±0.36}_{e,sep}$. This scaling of n e,sep is also consistent with the measurements from JET which, at constant P div,outer , show $c_n∝n^{-2.43±0.27}_{e,sep}$. The dependencies of P div,outer and n e.sep is demonstrated over at least a factor of two change in both parameters and indicates a stronger dependence on n e.sep in comparison to the Lengyel model, which could be due to the assumption in this model that the heat flux channel width is independent of density. This first assessment of detachment scaling with impurity seeding highlights the need for further analysis of the systematic uncertainties of the measurement and more consistent scenarios from more tokamaks to investigate the machine size scaling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetostriction of α-RuCl 3 Flakes in the Zigzag Phase

Motivated by the possibility of enhanced magnetic fluctuations in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 flakes, we study magneto-Raman spectra of exfoliated multilayer α-RuCl 3 in out-of-plane magnetic fields of -6 to 6 T at temperatures of 670 mK to 4 K. While the literature currently suggests that bulk α-RuCl 3 is in an antiferromagnetic zigzag phase with R$\bar3$ symmetry at low temperatures, we do not observe R$\bar3$ symmetry in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 at low temperatures. While we saw no magnetic field-driven transitions, the Raman modes exhibit unexpected stochastic shifts in response to the applied magnetic field that are above the uncertainties inferred from Bayesian analysis. Finally, these stochastic shifts are consistent with the emergence of magnetostrictive interactions in exfoliated α-RuCl 3 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi method revisited

ABSTRACT Despite the rich observational results on interstellar magnetic fields in star-forming regions, it is still unclear how dynamically significant the magnetic fields are at varying physical scales, because direct measurement of the field strength is observationally difficult. The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi (DCF) method has been the most commonly used method to estimate the magnetic field strength from polarization data. It is based on the assumption that gas turbulent motion is the driving source of field distortion via linear Alfvén waves. In this work, using MHD simulations of star-forming clouds, we test the validity of the assumption underlying the DCF method by examining its accuracy in the real 3D space. Our results suggest that the DCF relation between turbulent kinetic energy and magnetic energy fluctuation should be treated as a statistical result instead of a local property. We then develop and investigate several modifications to the original DCF method using synthetic observations, and propose new recipes to improve the accuracy of DCF-derived magnetic field strength. We further note that the biggest uncertainty in the DCF analysis may come from the linewidth measurement instead of the polarization observation, especially since the line-of-sight gas velocity can be used to estimate the gas volume density, another critical parameter in the DCF method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Disorder broadening of even-denominator fractional quantum Hall states in the presence of a short-range alloy potential

We study energy gaps of the $\textit{ν}$ = 7/2 and $\textit{ν}$ = 5/2 fractional quantum Hall states in a series of two-dimensional electron gases containing alloy disorder. In this work we found that gaps at these two filling factors have the same suppression rate with alloy disorder. The dimensionless intrinsic gaps in our alloy samples obtained from the model proposed by Morf and d'Ambrumenil are consistent with numerical results, but are larger than those obtained from experiments on pristine samples published in the literature. The disorder broadening parameter has large uncertainties. However, a modified analysis relying on shared intrinsic gaps yields consistent results for both the $\textit{ν}$ = 5/2 and 7/2 fractional quantum Hall states and establishes a linear relationship between the disorder broadening parameter and alloy concentration. Furthermore, we find that we can separate contributions to the disorder broadening of the long-range and short-range scattering.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Confirmation of the spectral excess in DAMIC at SNOLAB with skipper CCDs

Here, we present results from a 3.25 kg–day target exposure of two silicon charge-coupled devices (CCDs), each with 24 megapixels and skipper readout, deployed in the DAMIC setup at SNOLAB. With a reduction in pixel readout noise of a factor of 10 relative to the previous detector, we investigate the excess population of low-energy events in the CCD bulk previously observed above expected backgrounds. We address the dominant systematic uncertainty of the previous analysis through a depth fiducialization designed to reject surface backgrounds on the CCDs. The measured bulk ionization spectrum confirms the presence of an excess population of low-energy events in the CCD target with characteristic rate of ~7 events per kg-day and electron-equivalent energies of ~80 eV, whose origin remains unknown.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗